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fore a ‘Sent: ‘Thursday, Marc! 11 9:45 PM 3 To: Subject: He Latest How Syria is aiding Qaddafi and more. Sid . ‘Attachments: hrc memo syta aiding Moya 030311.doox hre memo syria aiding libya 03031 1.docx (CONFIDENTIAL ‘Mareh 3, 2011 For: Hillary From: Sid Re: Syria aiding Qaddafi ‘This memo has two parts. Part one isthe report that Syria is providing air support for Qaddafi. Part two is a note to Cody from Lord David Owen, former UK foreign secretary on his viows of an increasingly complex crisis. It seems that the situation is developing into a protracied civil war with various nations backing opposing sides, ‘with unforeseen consequences. Under these circumstances the crucial challenge isto deprive Qaddafi of his sttategic depth—his support both financial and military. Duting the afemoon of March 3, advisers to Muammar Qaddafi stated privately that the Libyan Leader has decided that civil war is inevitable, pitting troops and mercenary troops loyal to him against the rebel forces gathering sround Benghazi. Qaddafi is convinced that these rebels are being supported by the United States, Western Europe and Israel. Cn March 2 Qaddafi told his son Saif al-Islam that he believes the intelligence services of the United States, Great Britain, Egypt, and France have deployed paramilitary officers to Benghazi to assist in organizing, training, and equipping opposition forces. Qaddafi is convinced that the National Libyan Council (NLC), and its leader, former Minister of Justice Mustafa Mohamed Abdel Galil have been chosen by the foreign powers to replace him. On March 1 advisors to Qaddafi stated that Qaddafi’s cousin, Col. Ali Qaddafiddam had failed in efforts to recruit fighters among the Egyptian population living immediately across the border with Libya. ‘These individuals added that during the week of February 21 the Libyan Leader spoke to Syrian President Bashir al-Assad on at least three occasions by secure telephone lines. During the conversations Qaddafi asked that Syrian officers and technicians currently training the Libyan Air Force be placed under command of the Libyan Army and allowed to fight against the rebel forces. (Source Comment: Senior Libyan Army officers still loyal to Qaddafi added that On February 23, President Assad told General Isam Hallag, the commander in chief of the Syrian Air Force, to instruct the pilots and technicians in Tripoli to help the Libyan regime, should full scale Civil ‘War breaks out in the immediate future.) ‘On March 2, a military officer with ties to Qaddfi’s son Khamis stated privately that the number of Libyan pilots defecting to the opposition hes destroyed the morale and professional spirit of the Libyan Air Force at this critical moment, when Tripoli's air superiority is its principal weapon against insurgents. In the opinion of this individual Qaddafi and his sénior military advisors are convinced that the Eropean Union and the U.S will impose a no-fly zone over Libya in the immediate future. These advisors believe that the no fly zone will serve as air support for ‘opposition forces. They are also prepared for the Westem allies to bomb anti-aircraft facilities in and around Tripoli in preparation for the establishment of the no-fly zone. Foteign Minister ‘Mousa Kousa is convinced that that Russia and Turkey will oppose the move, and may prevent the implementation of the no fly zone. ‘The Syrian soldiers in Libya are part of a mission established in 1984 following the signing of a military agreement between Qaddafi and Syria's long-time ruler and Bashit’s father, Hafez. al- Assad, in the presence of General Soubhi Haddad, who was the commander in chief of the Air Force at the time. Both Air Forces are equipped with Russian materiel and have had long- standing, close links with Moscow. Tl. Note from David Owen, former UK foreign secretary In exchange for Syria’s help, Libya provided financial support to the Syrian state, including fimds in support of operations carried out by the Syrian intelligence services in Lebanon. Libyan money helped Hafez al-Assad bribe his brother Rifaat, the author of an attempted coup d'etat in 1983, to leave the country and go into exile in Spain and France, where he has remained ever since. ‘According to individuals with access to the Syrian military, Damascus has also sent a second team of pilots and technicians to Tripoli, These are lower-ranking officers loyal to the regime who are specialized in flying helicopters. Before their departure for Tripoli on February 23, they met with General Allag and General Jamil Hasan, head of Air Force's Intelligence. (Source Comment: During the afternoon of 3 March, an associate of Saif al-Islam Qaddafi stated that he and the Libyan leaders other family members were concemed over the announcement of Jose Luis Moreno-Ocampo, chief prosecutor of the Intemational Criminal Court (ICC), announced that he was investigating Qaddafi, his sons Khamis, the commander of the 32 battalion, and Montasem, as well as the head of Gadhafi's personal security detail, the Director-General of the External Security Organization (Abuzaid Dorda), the spokesman of the regime (Musa Ibrahim), and the Minister of Foreign Affairs (Mousa Kousa). This source added that Saif al-Islam had said that Qaddafi himself found the announcement amusing.) From: Lord Owen Cody, Realistically the UN will not authotise a no fly zone while Gaddafi continues to hold off bombing and strafing but keeping it up front and on the military agenda keeps him worried. Yet for a few frustrating months that ambivalence kept the Serbian aetoplanes on the grouind before we acted. My hope is thet preparations continue with visuals of planes flying off carriers, airborne early warning planes flying and people with clout outside the Administration demanding preparations, But and itis a big BUT what else can and should we be doing? Encourage humanitarian ships and convoys from Egypt to bring in supplies since we must ensure the cities in the East can hold up living standards, maybe for months, More adventurous, Egyptian Special Forces to go in and advise, even supplying hand held missiles. It appears they have few missiles; the military in the East having been deliberately kept ill-equipped. There is old Nasserte sentiment for a Federation of Egypt, Sudan and Libya. I know some will say Egypt has enough problems and they should stay resolutely focused on domestic reforms. it is delicate but words alone and the balance of advantage wil slip to Gaddafi. A Gaddafi victory is possible and needs to be weighed in the balance now when deciding what to do. Tm more wortied than I am ready to say publicly. ‘Yours David From: H chrod17@clitonemallcom> Sent: Friday, March 11, 2011 1:36 PM To: Huma Abedin Subject: Fac H: Latest: How Syria is aiding Qaddafi and more... Sid Attachments: Ihre memo syria aiding ibya 03031 t.docx Pls pent. a To ‘Subject: H: Latest: How Syria's alding Qaddafi and more... Sid ‘CONFIDENTIAL March 3, 2011 For: Hillary rom: Sid Re: Syria aiding Qaddafi ‘This memo has two parts, Part one isthe report that Syria is providing air support for Qaddafi. Part two is a note +o Cody ftom Lord David Owes, former UK foreign secretary on his views of an increasingly complex crisis. It scems that the situation is developing into a protracted civil war with various nations backing opposing sides with unforeseen consequences. Under these cireumstances the crucial challenge is to deprive Qaddafi of his strategic depth—his support both financial and military. I Report During the aftemoon of March 3, advisers to Muammar Qaddafi stated privately that the Libyan Leader has decided that civil war is inevitable, pitting troops and mercenary troops loyal to him against the rebel forces gathering around Benghazi. Qaddafi is convinced that these rebels are being supported by the United States, Western Europe and Israel. On March 2 Qaddafi told his son Seif al-Islam that he believes the intelligence services of the United States, Great Britain, Egypt, and France bave deployed paramilitary officers to Benghazi to assist in organizing, staining, and equipping opposition forces. Qaddafi s convinced that the National Libyan Council {NLC), and its leader, former Minister of Justice Mustafa Mohamed Abdel Galil have been shosen by the foreign powers to replace him. On March 1 advisors to Qaddafi stated that Qaddafi’s cousin, Col, Ali Qaddafiddam had failed in efforts to recruit fighters among the Bgyptian population living immediately across the border with Libya. These individuals added that during the week of February 21 the Libyan Leader spoke to Syrian President Bashir al-Assad on at least three occasions by secure telephone lines, During the conversations Qaddafi asked that Syrian officers and technicians currently training the Libyan Air Force be placed under command of the Libyan Army and allowed to fight against the rebel forces. (Source Comment: Senior Libyan Army officers still loyal to Qaddafi added that On February 23, President Assad told General Isam Hallag, the commander in chief of the Syrian Air Force, +o instruct the pilots and technicians in Tripoli to help the Libyan regime, should full scale Civil War breaks out in the immediate future.) On March 2, « military officer with ties to Qaddfi's son Khamis stated privately that the number of Libyan pilots defecting to the opposition has destroyed the morale and professional spirit of ‘he Libyan Air Force at this critical moment, when Tripoli’ air superiority is its principal weapon. against insurgents. In the opinion of this individual Qaddafi and his senior military advisors are zonvinced that the European Union and the U.S will impose a no-fly zone over Libya in the immediate future. ‘These advisors believe that the no fly zone will serve as air support for apposition forces. They are also prepared for the Western allies to bomb anti-aircraft facilities in and around Tripoli in preparation for the establishment of the no-fly zone, Foreign Minister Mousa Kousa is convinced that that Russia and Turkey will oppose the move, and may prevent the implementation of the no fly zone. The Syrian soldiers in Libya are part of a mission established in 1984 following the signing of a military agreement between Qaddafi and Syria's long-time ruler and Bashir’s father, Hafez. al- a Note from David Owen, former UK foreign secretary Assad, in the presence of General Soubhi Haddad, who was the commander in chief of the Air Zoree at the time. Both Air Forces are equipped with Russian materiel and have had long- standing, close links with Moscow. ‘exchange for Syria's help, Libya provided financial support to the Syrian state, including funds 1 support of operations carried out by the Syrian intelligence services in Lebanon. Libyan money aelped Hafez. al-Assad bribe his brother Rifaat, the author of an attempted coup d'etat in 1983, ‘0 leave the country and go into exile in Spain and France, where he has remained ever since. According to individuals with access to the Syrian military, Damascus has also sent a second ‘eam of pilots and technicians to Tripoli. These are lower-ranking officers loyal to the regime who are specialized in flying helicopters. Before their departure for Tripoli on February 23, they ‘net with General Allaq and General Jamil Hasan, head of Air Force's Intelligence. “Source Comment: During the aftemoon of 3 March, an associate of Saif al-Islam Qaddafi stated that he and the Libyan leaders other family members were concemed over the mnouncement of Jose Luis Moreno-Ocampo, chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Zourt (ICC), announced that he was investigating Qaddafi, his sons Khamis, the commander of she 32 battalion, and Montasem, as well as the head of Gadhafi's personal security detail, the Director-General of the Extemal Security Organization (Abuzaid Dorda), the spokesman of the cegime (Musa Ibruhim), and the Minister of Foreign Affairs (Mousa Kousa). This source added +hat Saif al-Islam had said that Qaddafi himself found the announcement amusing.) From: Lord Owen Cov, Realistically the UN will not authorise a no fly zone while Gaddafi continues to hold off bombing and sitafing but keeping i¢ up front and on the military agenda keeps him worried. Yet fora few frustrating months that ambivalence kept the Serbian aeroplanes on the ground before we acted. My hope is that preparations ‘continue with visuals of planes flying off carriers, airborne early wamning planes flying and people with clout outside the Administration demanding preparations. But and itis a big BUT what else can and should we be doing? Encourage humanitarian ships and convoys from Egypt to bring in supplies since we must ensure the cities in the East can hold up living standards, maybe for months, More adventurous, Egyptian Special Forces to ‘go in and advise, even supplying hand held missiles. It appears they have few missiles; the military in the East having been deliberately kept ill-equipped. There is old Nasserite sentiment for a Federation of Egypt, Sudan and Libya. [know some will say Egypt has enough problems and they should stay resolutely focused on domestig xeforms.itis delicate but words alone and the balance of advantage will ip to Gaddafi. A Gaddafi ‘Victory is posstble and needs to be weighed in the balance now when deciding what to do. ‘I'm more worried than I am ready to say publicly. Yours David From: ‘sbwhoeop| Sent: ‘Sunday, March 27, 2011 9:05 PM To: H Subject: Hi Lots of new inte; possible Libyan collapse. Sid . Attachments: thre memo lots of new intet possible imminent collapse 0327 1.400% hire memo lots of ‘new inte possible imminent collapse 032711.docx CONFIDENTIAL ‘March 27,2011 For: Hillary From: Sid Re: Lots of new intel; Libyan army possibly on verge of collapse Latest: ‘During the evening of March 27, 2011, individuals with direct access to the military committee -of the National Libyan Couneil (NLC) stated in confidence that while the rebel forces continue to have organization and ‘communications problems, their morale has improved drastically, and they believe the Libyan Army is on the ‘verge of collapse. Under attack from allied Air and ‘Naval forces, the Libyan Army troops have begun to desert to the rebel side in increasing numbers. The rebels are making an effort to greet these troops as fellow Libyans, in an effort to encourage additional defections. (Gource Comament: Speaking in strict confidence, one rebel commander stated that bis troops continue to summarily execute all foreign mercenaries captured in the fighting. At the same time Colonel Khalifa Haftar hhas reportedly joined the rebel command structure, in an effort to help organization the rebel forces. aflar was the commander of the Libyan National Army (LNA), a 1500 mani force of anti-Qaddafi troops based in N'djamena, Chad, until eurent President Idryss Debi overthrew Chadian President Hussein Habre in the fll of 1990, with the assistance of Libyan and French troops. Haftar and his troops fled to a country in central Africa and many, including Haftar, later settled in the United States.) An extremely sensitive source added that the rebels are receiving direct ‘essistance and training from a small ‘number of Egyptian Special Forces units, while French and British Special Operations troops are working out of bases in Egypt, along the Libyan border. ‘These troops are oversceing the transfer of weapons and supplies to the rebels, (Source Comment: The rebels are moving back into ‘reas that they lost in mid- March fighting, and using the allied sir cover, they are confident they can move into the Tripoli district in a matter of days. One rebel source teported that they had reliable intelligence that people were evacusting Qaddafi's hometown, Sirte, anticipating it is located mid-way between Tripoli and Benghazi; its loss will be a ) Separately, a sensitive European source stated in strict confidence that French military commanders anticipate & complete collepse of the Libyan military command and control structure ithe next week. These officers, who have experience with the Libyan Army during its invasion of Chad inthe late 1980s stated thatthe Libyan troops did not perform well under concentrated fire from troops armed with modern weapons. This source also noted that information from Tripoli has become increasingly difficult to obtain, but there are reports of deaths among some Qaddafi’s senior security officials, including Mansour Daw, and that the Libyan leader himself may have experienced a health problem, Unfortunately, the European Intelligence services have been unable to confirm or discredit these reports. This situation hes become increasingly frustrating for French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who, according to knowledgeable individuals, is pressing to have France emerge from this crisis as the principal foreign ally of any new government that takes power. Sarkozy is also concemed about continuing reports that radical/erorist groups such as the Libyan Fighting Groups and Al Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) are infiltrating the NLC and its military command, Accordingly, he asked sociologist Bernard Henri Levy, who has long established ties to Israel. Syria, and other nations in the Middle East, o use his contacts to determine the level of influence AQIM and other terrorist gyoups have inside of the NLC. Sarkozy also asked for reports setting out a cleas picture of the role of the “Muslim Brotherhood in the rebel leadership. These sources note that French diplomats and intelligence officers in Egypt are in contact with the following rebel figures in Benghazi: MESMARI Nouri (Qaddafi's former head of protocol, who along with Mousa Kousa was considered the Libyan leaders most loyal follower. Nouri currently lives in France; Gehan (GHEHANI Abdallah (colonel), CHARRANT Faraj, BOUKHRIS Fethi, General Abdelfateh Younis (commander of the rebel forces) (Souree Comment; Senior European security officials caution that AQIM is watching developments in Libya, and elements of that organization have been in touch with tribes in the southeastern part of the country. These officials are concerned that in a post-Qaddafi Libya, France and other westem European countries must move quickly to ensure that the new government does not allow AQIM and others to set up small, semi- autonomous local entities—or “Caliphates"—in the oil and gas producing regions of southeastern Libya.) ‘These knowledgeable sources add thatthe insurgonts have the following weapons stockpiled in Benghazi: 82 and 120 mm. mortars, GPZ type machine gums; 12.7ram., machine guns mounted on 4x4 vehicles; some anti-aircraft batteries type ZSU 23/2 and 23/4 as well as Man-Portable Air-Defense Systems (MANPADS) type SAM7; some tanks type T-725 Possibly some fixed wing aircraft, and some light transport/medium helicopters. ‘A seemingly endless supply of AK47 assault rifles aud ammumition (even for systems ZSU 23/4 and 23/2). French, British and Egyptian Special Forces troops are training the rebels inside of western Egypt, and to a limited degree in the western suburbs of Benghazi. (Source Comment: These sources add that the MANPAD SAM? systems appear to be old and badly preserved, and have been judged useless by the rebels.) — From: sbwhoeop| Sent: Friday, Api 8, 2011 5:28 PM. To: 4 Subject: H: UK game playing; new rebel strategists; Egypt moves In. Sid - Attachments: he memo UK games; new rebel strategists; Egypt moves 040B11.docx hre memo UK ‘games; new rebel strategists; Egypt moves 04081 1.docx CONFIDENTIAL For: Hilary From: Sid Re: UK game playing; new rebel strategists; Egypt moves in Latest report: UBYAIGREAT BRITAINIFRANCE (On the moming of Apri 8, an individual wth direct access tothe leadership of the Libyan National Council (LNC) stated in strictest confidence that members of he Mltary Committe ofthe LNC are concerned that, despite the Involvement of 'NATO against he forces of Muammar Qaddaf, the government of Great Brain i using Hs intaligence services in an efor to dictate the actions of both the LNC and the Gaddafi regime. These individuals add that they have been Informed by contacts in France and Italy that, whle they have been engaged in discussions wit the LNC regarding possible ‘assistance, Bllah diplomats end iniligence officers have maintained contact wth members ofthe Qaddafi government, in an effort o protect the Brtsh poston in the event the rebelion settles Into a sialemate. These LNC officials believe {hat the defection of Libyan Ministor of Foreign Affairs Mousa Kousa to the United KIngdom was pet of this effort. By the ‘same token they believe that British inteligence officers are in discussion with asaocites of Saif aisiam Qaddafi, ‘regarding future relations between the two countries i he takes over power from his father and implements reforms, ‘According to these individuals, senior LNC military personnel suspect that despite eary indications that they would ‘provide clandestine mitary support tothe rebels; nether the French nor the British government wil provide the rebels ‘with enough equipment and training to defeat Qaddaffs forces. They also believe thatthe French, British, and other European countries will be satisfied with a stalemate that leaves Libya divided into two rval entities. (Source Comment: In the opinion of ese indlviduals the LNC mila leaders are considering the possibilty of hiring private secuty fis to help tran end organize their forces. One ofthese indivduals added that a numberof the LNC ‘members beleve that this solution may be best forthe rebels; noting tht if they accept clandestine aid from France and/or Great Britain those two counties willbe in @ position to contol the development of post-Caddafi Ubya.) LIBYA INSURGENT ACTIVITY {es Information is based on sensitive reporting from individuals with direct accers to the leadership of the ic) : 1. With ite hope of achieving a quick miltary victory the LNC is deploying a three part strategy; leveraging tribal relationships, of production and diplomatic pressure fo get the better of Qaddafl. A former spokesman for the Libyan Human Rights League (LHRL) in Europe, Ali Zidane, isin talks with representatives of tribes in Sebha and Sirte in an ‘effort to persuade them to raly tothe revolution and the LNC before fighting actually reaches thelr regions. Zidane fs a candidate to be the Minister of the Interior inthe “new Libya.” Among his close associates is Mohamed Allogul, president ‘of the LHRL, who is interested inthe justice portfolio In the future, transition government 2. Atthe same tine, All Tarhouni, the LNC’s financial expert and Finance Minister in post-Caddafi Libya, is ‘struggling to get oll exports back on track in eastern Libya, with backing from the United States and Qatar. The LNC belleves that the U.S. wil focus on restarting operations al the ol terminal in Tobruk, and an American enwoy is expected in Benghazi inthe near future fo facltats this process. For its part, Qatar is advancing cash to the LNC to stimulate the ‘shipment of ol from eastern Libya, Some commodity traders stepped in recently (under contract from Qatar) to deliver refined oll produats tothe Insurgents. VITOL and the Swiss fm GLENCORE are operating In the rebel zone, but denied ‘any Involvement inthis shipment. Elsewhere, these sources add that Mahmud Shammam Is overseeing the information and communications campaign for the rebels against Gaddaf, Considered one of the LNC most important leaders, Shemmam brings to the insurgency the ‘expertise he acquired while working for Voice of America, Foreign Policy, Newsweek and Al Jazeora. Shammam lived in the U.S. for more than twenty years, and he is believed fo have excellent connections in the U.S. Government. 3. folamiot activity: Libya's Istamist activists have maintained a low profi since the start of the ineurgency in late Fobruary; fearing that the activiies would give credence to Qaddaf's claims thatthe rebets are terrorists. As the LNC is {oking shape, they are now working to make their voice heard, and influence evonts within the LNC. Ali Sallabl, Salem Al Shiki and Mohamed Al Guiti, leading slemic figures who had taken refuge in London (and are close tothe Mosiem Brotherhood), drafted “national pact” which looks like a road map for organizing the role ofthe Islamist movernent inthe transition toa post ~ Qaddaf Libya. ‘Sallab! and hie two associates draw thei inspiration from the “February 17 Movement” which helped spark the uprising by ‘commemorating the massacre of Islamist prisoners at the Abu Salim prison in 1996, Prior tothe current rebelion, Mustapha Abdel Jall, the President of the LNC and former Minister of Justice caled forthe roloase of reformed islamints, ‘At present, the islamiats are handicapped by the fac they supported Saif reform projects before the recent crisis. Saif played a crucial part in geting the Islamists to sever tes between the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group's and al Gta In the Islamic Maghreb (AQiM).. . EGYPT AND LIBYA: ‘A source wit excellent access to th highs levels ofthe SUPREME COUNCIL OF THE ARMED FORCES (SCAF) ‘states that the Egyptian Military has tumed its full attention tothe crisis in Libya. Traditonally, Egypt is @ strong influence inthe easter Libyan region of Gyrenaica end is naw taking advantage ofthe current eis to regain that positon Regordiess of whether Muammar Gaddafl remains fn power or not, the poltical division of Libya wil give Egypt the ‘opportunity to fil the void in the east. A senior dpfomatic source reported thet since the early days of the Libyan crisis, the Egyptian government has bean quietly supporting Libyan opposition forces through training, weaponry, food, and medical suppl, while atlempling to organize a poltcal structure inthe east. In alion, Egyptian Special Operations troops ore ‘serving with rebel forces inthe easter part of Libya. Sonlor Egyptian mltary offcers stated privately that these tops fare responsible for many ofthe rabef'& combat successes. “The following factors are the focus of Egypt's plans for @ post-Gtaddafl regime: -Avolding a refugee crisis, in the event Qaddaf's forces invade the east, Egypt isthe most logical destination for ‘efugees from Libyan. Egypt has an interest in controling any turrol in Libya that could harm efforts to restart ts struggling economy. -Labor market. Libya is an important market for unemployed Egyptian laborers. According to the Egyptian Labor ‘Ministry, around 1.5 millon Egyptians reside and workin Libya, sending hime an estimated $254 milion in remitiances, Inthe past few years, Qadda has placod heavy restrictions on foreign workers, and Egypt hopes that @ new regime will be more flexible, and open to receiving Egyptian workers. ‘Radical Islamlats. Traditionally, the eastern part of Libya has been a stronghold for radical tslamist groups, including the al Qaldainked Libyan islamic Fighting Group. While Qacdaf's regime has been successful in suppressing the ‘Jhadlst threat in Libya, the current situation opens the door for jhadist resurgence. Egypt has a growing interest in keeping a olose eye on jhadist movements in easter Libya. ‘This is especially true as the Egyptian Miltary is already concerned about sa mitany overtow fom Gaz, afr he foroes ware pulled bak to Cao during the uprising ‘against Mubara} -Oll and energy resources. Egypt has strong economic interests inthe ol rch eastern part of Libya. Any opportunity to ‘gain director Indirect accees to these energy resources wil Increase Egypt's wealth. Regional power. The Egypt's miltaryied goverment is looking to reestabilsh their country’s roe in the Arab world. 80 fa, Egypt tas fostered dlecussions Inthe Palestinian terrtories between Fatah and Hamas, while reaching out o Syria ‘and Saudi Arabia on the issue of Iran. (Source Comment: According to a sensitive diplomatic source, the current Egyptian diplomatic strategy is to enhance its ‘stature by defending the Libyan people against Qaddafis regime, while atthe bame time, distancing itself from any mltary intervention led by the region's former colonial powers in Europe.) It ehould be noted thet, inthe opinion of knowledgeable sources, Egypt cannot count on the suppcrt of every Arab power inthe rogon. Egypt led ta cal or Imposing the no-fy zona In Libya, while Algeria, while Yemen, and Syria voted againt X Ths cuntt(epeil Yorn) earth precede tht woul be entero cwn governments he event (Source Comment: A source with a0cess fo the leadership of NATO state in confidence that their information indicates ‘hat Syria and Algeria are concarmed with Egypt's revival in the region, This source stated that a de facto spit between ‘eastern and westam Libya would give Egypt the opportunity to reassume an influential postion in Cyrenaca,) _ From 1 chrodt7@dintonemallcom> Sent: Friday, Apll 8, 2011 535 PM To: “sulvanj@state gov Subject Far H: UX game playing: new rebel strategists; Eaypt moves in. Sid ‘Atachments: fre memo UK games, new rebel strategists Egypt moves 040811.doce Fic The Idea of using private securty experts to em the opposition should be considered. To:H Subject: H: UK game playing; new rebel strategts; Epypt moves In. Sid CONFIDENTIAL For Hilary From: Sid Re: UK game playing; new rebel strtegsts; Egypt moves in Latest report: (UBYAGREAT BRITAIN/FRANCE ‘on the moming of Apr 8, an Individual with direct access tothe leadership of the Libyan National Council (LNC) stated in ne moming cf Ap er oft ry Commie ofthe LNC ae concerned hat dese he Hens FA TO egainst the forces of Muammar Caddaf the government of Great Bria, 5 using is Intelligence services In an Dffot to dictate the actions of bath the LNG and the Gaddal regime. ‘These Individuals atid that they have been Informed ofr oe ft ators aya we oy have been engaged i cussions whe LNG rue fe, Ora» toh diplomats and irteligence officers have malntained contact wih morber ‘of he Qaddafi goverment, ‘ectslaror to protec the Bris postin inthe evert te rebelion sates into a slalom, “These LNC officials believe Anat ne dfeton of In ish rtigence acars are kcusion vi asses of Sal a slam Onsterh regarding future relations between the two countries ine takes over power from his father and implements reforms. ‘According o these fdvidels, senior LNC mary personne suspect hat despioeryIchontors Ts they would poet Caadeatine miltaryeupor to the reba; nether tha French nor the Bish gooey veil provide the rebols rove can uipment and traning to defeat Qadafs frees. They alsa bellows that the Fete Briish, and other van emf wt be sesiod wih asalemate tal eaves iby dvd roto rel onto. ‘comment nthe opinion ofthase Individuals the LNG nity leaders aro considering the poserety of hiring (eet seaury is to hep a end organize tel forces. One of ese incivuls eae that @ number of the LNC Pete Sec Ee olan may b bet fore ebos; naling ta thoy acowpt andes at for Taner mombes beleve ge bro counties wil ben a postion 0 con the development of post Gada bya), LIBYA -INSURGENT ACTIVITY Cf omen nnd on ei poring am inl rt eset AP ) ‘1. Wi litle hope af achieving a quick military victory the LNC is deploying three part strategy; leveraging tribal ‘lationships, ol production and diplomatic pressure to get the better of Qaddafi, A former spokesman forthe Libyan ‘Human Rights League (LHR) In Europe, All Zidano, Is in talks with representatives of iibes in Sebha and Site in en effort fo persuade thom fo rally to the revolution and the LNC before fighting actually reaches their regions. Zidane is & Candidate fo be the Minister ofthe Interior in the “new Libya.” Among his close assoolates Is Mohamed Allagul, president ‘of the LHL, whois interested inthe justice portfolio Inthe future, transition government. 2 Atthe same time, All Tarhouni, the LNC's financial expert and possily Finanoe Minister in past-Caddafl Libya, is Struggling to get oll exports back on track in easter Libya, with backing rom the Unked States and Qatar. The LNC. boieves that the U.S. wil focus on restarting operations at the olf terminal in Tobruk, and an American envoy fs expected ‘in Bonghaz! in the near future to facitate this process. For ts part, Qatar is advancing cash to the LNC to stimulate the Ssloment of ol from eastern Libya. Some commodity raders slapped in recently (under contract from Catan) to deliver ‘refined oll products to the insurgents. VITOL. and the Swiss frm GLENCORE are operating inthe rebel zone, but denled any Involvement inthis shipment. Elsewhere, these sources add that Mahmud Shammam Is overseeing the information and communications campaign for {the rebels against Qaddafi, Considered one of the LNC most important leaders, Shammam brings to the Insurgency the xpeitise he acquired white working for Voice of America, Foreign Poly, Newsweek and Al Jazeera. Shamma ved in ‘the U.S. for more than twenty years, and he is beloved to have excellant connections inthe U.S. Government. 3. tslamist activity: Libya's tsiamist activists have maintained a low profile since the stat ofthe insurgency in late February; fesring thet their activities would give credence to Caddaft’s claims that the rebels are terrorists, As the LNC is. ‘aking shape, they are now working to make their voice heard, anc Influence events win the UNC. A Sallabl, Salem At ‘Shiki and Mohamed AI Guirti, leading Islamic iqures who fad taken refuge in London (and are clase to the Moslem. Brotherhood), crafted a ‘national pact” which looks tke a road map for organizing the role of te Islamist movernent in the transtion to a post - Gaddafi Lbye, Sallabi and his two associates draw thelr inspiration from the “February 17 Movernent” which helped spark the uprising by oa ‘he massacre of Islamist prisoners at the Abu Salim prison In 1996, Prior to the current rebelion, Mustapha Abdel Jali, the President of the LN and former Ministor of Justice called forthe releaso of reformed fslamists, ‘Al present, the isiamists are handioapped by the fact they supported Saif roform projects before the recent ersis. Saif Played a crucial part in geting the Islamists to sever ties between the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group's and al Qa'da in the Islamic Magheeb (AQIN). EGYPT AND LIBYA: ‘A.souroe with excellent access tothe highest levels of the SUPREME COUNCIL OF THE ARMED FORCES (SCAF) Sent: Monday, May 2, 2011 11:08 AM To: a Subject: Pw: H: UBL, AQ Bc Libya, Sid Attachments: tre memo bin laden, aq & libya.docx Ps print. From: [maltos>vhoeo i Sent: Mondsy, Hay 09:12 AM, ‘Subject: H: UBL, AQ & Libya. Sid CONFIDENTIAL May 2, 2011 For: Hilary From: Sid Re: Bin Laden, AQ & Libya. Latest report: During the early moming of May 2, 2011 eouroos lh access to the leadership ofthe Libyan rebolions culng Transilonal ‘National Counal (TNC) sated la confdonce that they re concerned thatthe death of al Qa leader Osama Bia Ladon ‘wl spre al Qa'ea in the Islamic Maghreb (AGI) to use weapons they have obtained, which were oglnaly intended {or the rebets in Libya, to relate against the United States and its alles fr this attack in Pakistan. Theso individuals fear {hal the uso of the weapons i this manner will complicate the TNC's relationship with NATO and the United States, whose suppor is vial to them in thelr struggle withthe forces of Muammar al Gadd. In this regard they are concomed Mat Ug owl eles repr, fen cred by he Trpal Goverment gerchg he dere of rene examsed on the TNC, ‘Those Individuals note thatthe TNC offieals are reacting to reports received during the weok of April 25 from thelr own ‘s0u"G08 of information, the French General Director for Extemal Seoufly (OGSE), and Brtish external intellgence service (M8), stating that AIM has acqulred about 10 SAM 7- GraW/Streela man-portable al-defense systems (MANPADS or MPADS) from legal weapons markets in Wester Niger and Northem Mal. These weapons were ‘originally intended for sao to the rebel forces in Libya, but AQIM operatives were able fo meet seorelly wth these arms ddoalors and purchase the equipment. The acquisition ofthese sophisticated weapons creates @ serious throat to al trafic In Southem Morocco, Algeria, Northern Mal, Westem Niger, and Eastern Mauritania, (Source Comment: According to very sensitive sources, the Libyan rebels are concemed that AGIM may also obtain ‘SPIGOTT wire-guided antitank missiles and an unspecified number of Russian anti-tank mines made of plastic and undetectable by anthmine equipment. This equipment again was coming through Niger and Mall, and was Intended for the robels In Ubya. They note that AQIM Is very strong In this region of Northwest Africa) Inthe opinion of these knowedgeable Individuals, Libyan rebel commanders are also concemed that the death of Bin {Laden comes ata time wien senstve information indicates thatthe leeders of AIM ore planning to leunch aiacks ‘tcross North Affica and Eurdpe in an effort to reassert ther relevance during the ongolng upheavals i Libya, as woll as the rest of North Afica and the Middle East. They believe the ft step in this campaign was the Apri 30 bornbng of @ aft Market, Morooo fats fequened by Weslo outs, Towa nda pol out et AIM alo manne awide: Esrope. ‘The TNC loaders are siso concemed that, wih the death of Saif a-Arab Gadaf, the youngest son of Muammar Caddaf, the Tipo Gavemment may pursue retaliation against the United States and its Wester alles through surrogate terrorist ‘groups, particularly Hezbotah. While the deaths of Bin Laden and Saif al-Arab are completely unrelated, two separate ‘and very dangerous groups will now be looking for revenge against the U.S. and is alles. (Gource Comment: These knowledgoable souroes believe thatthe leaders of the TNC are also worried about the reaction {othe death of Bin Laden among rebel fightors and their supporters in Libya and Egypt, where the al Qa'da loader was very popular. These TNC officials do not want the death of Bin Laden to affect thelr relations with the West or thelr ‘support from NATO, the U.S., France, or Great Britain.) . CONFIDENTIAL ‘May 2, 2011 For: Hillary - From: Sid Re: Bin Laden, AQ & Libya ‘Latest report: During the early morning of May 2, 2011 sources with access to the leadership of the Libyan rebellion’s ruling Transitional National Council (TNC) stated in confidence that they are ‘concerned thatthe death of al Qa'ida leader Osame Bin Laden will inspire al Qa’ida in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) to use weapons they have obtained, which were orginally intended for the rebels in Libya, to retaliate against the United States and is allies fortis etack in Pakistan, "These individuals far thatthe use of the weapons inthis manner will complicate the TNC’s relationship with NATO and the United States, whose support is vital to them in their struggle ‘with the forces of Muammar al Qaddafi, In tis regard they are conecmed that U.S. officials will believe reports, often created by the Tripoli Government, regarding the degree of influence ‘exercised by AQIM on the TNC. ‘These individuals note that the TNC officials are reacting to reports received during the week of April 25 from their own sources of information, the French General Directorate for External ‘Security (DGSE), and British external intelligence service (MI-6), stating that AQIM has ‘soquired about 10 SAM 7- Grail/Streela man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS ot “MPADS) from: illegal weapons markets in Westera Niger and Northern Mali. These weapons ‘were originally intended for sale to the rebel forces in Libya, but AQIM operatives were able to meet secretly with these arms dealers and purchase the equipment. ‘The acquisition of these sophisticated weapons creates a serious threat to air traffic in Southern Morocco, Algeria, Northern Mali, Western Niger, and Eastern Mauritania, (Source Comment; According to very sensitive sources, the Libyan rebels are concemed that ‘AQIM may also obtain SPIGOTT wire-guided anti-tank missiles and an unspecified number of ‘Russian anti-tank mines made of plastic and undetectable by anti-mine equipment. This equipment again wes coming through Niger and Mali, and was intended for the rebels in Libya, ‘They note that AQIM is very strong in this regicn of Northwest Aftica.) 1n the opinion of these knowledgeable individusls, Libyan rebel commanders are also concerned ‘that the death of Bin Laden comes at a time when sensitive information indicates thatthe leaders of AQIM are planning to launch attacks across North Aftica and Europe in an effort to reassert their relevance during the ongoing upheavals in Libya, as well asthe rest of North Aftica and the ‘Middle East. They believe the first step in this campaign was the April 30 bombing of a café in ‘Marrakesh, Morocco that is frequented by Wester tourists. These individuals point out that ‘AQIM also maintains a wide reach in Europe, ‘The TNC leaders are also concemed that, with the death of Saif al-Arab Quddafi, the youngest son of Muammar Qaddafi, the Tripoli Goverment may pursue retaliation against the United States and its Wester allies through surrogate terrorist groups, particularly Hezbollah. While ‘the deaths of Bin Laden and Saif al-Arab are completely unrelated, two separate and very dangerous groups will now be looking for revenge against the U.S. and its allies, (Gource Comment: These knowledgeable sources believe that the leaders of the TNC are also ‘worried about the reaction to the death of Bin Laden among rebel fighters and their supporters in Libya and Egypt, where the al Qa'ide leader was very popular. ‘These TNC officials do not want the death of Bin Laden to affect ther relations with the West or their support from NATO, the US, France, or Greet Britain) From: H chrodt7@diintonemall.com> Sent: Friday, May 6 2011 153 AM Yo: ‘sulivenyi@stategov' Subject: Fc H: UBL, AQ Libya. Sid Altachments: ‘xc memo bin laden, aq &lbyadooe More to pass on-sturbing, true, From: sbwhhoeo ito:sbwhoecr ‘Sent: Monday, May 02, 2011 08:12 AM To:H ‘Subject: H: UBL, AQ & Libya. Sid May 2, 2011 For: Hilary From: Sid é Re: Bin Laden, AQ & Libya Latest report: During the earty morning of May 2, 2011 souroes with access tothe leadership of the Libyan rebelion’s ruling Transilonal ‘National Council (TNC) stated in confidence that they are concerned thet the death of al Qa'da leader Osama Bin Laden ‘wl Inspr al Qaida in the Istamto Maghreb (AIM) to use weapons they have obtained, which were orginal intended forthe rebels in Libya, to retaliate agaist the Uniied States and its alles fr this attack in Pakistan. These indivituals fear thatthe use of the weapons inthis manner will compfioats the TNC's relationship with NATO and the United States, \whose support is vital fo them in thelr struggle wit the forces of Muammar al Gaddafi. In this regard they are conosmed int. 5 fics baeve report, olen crete hy he Trpol Govenment, regarthgthe degree of once everied on the TNC. ‘These individuals note thatthe TNC officials are reacting o reports received during the week of April 25 from thelr own ‘souroes of information, the French General Directorate for Exiemal Security (GSE), and Bish external inteligence ‘service (MI-8), stating that AGIM has acquired about 10 SAM 7- Grall/Streala man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS or MPADS) from llegal weapons markets in Western Niger and Northem Mall, These weapons were ‘originally intended for sale to the rebel forces in Libya, but AQIM operatives were able fo meet secretly with these arms dealers and purchase the equipment. The acquistlon of these sophisticated weapons creates a serious threat to ar trafic fh Sauthem Morocea, Algeria, Northom Mall, Westom Niger, and Eastern Mauttania, (Source Comment: According to very sensitive sources, the Libyan rebels are concemed that ACIM may also obtaln ‘SPIGOTT whe-guided anti-tank missiles and an unspecified number of Russian anti-tank mines made of plastic and undetectable by antl-mine equipment. This equipment again wes coming through Niger and Mal, and was intended for the ‘obels in Libya. They nate that AGIM fs very strong inthis region of Northwest Africa) Inthe opinion of these knowledgeable individuals, Libyan rebel commanders are also concerned that the death of Bin [Laden comes ata time when sensitive information indicates tha the leaders of AQIM are planning to launch atiacks ‘across North Afica end Europe In an effort fo reassert thelr relevance during the ongoing upheavals in Libya, as well as the rest of Nowth Africa and the Middle East, They beliove the first step in this campaign was the Apri 30 bombing of & ‘café in Marrakesh, Morocco thal ls frequented by Wester tourkss, These Individuals point ut that AQIM also maintains a wide reach ia Europe. ‘The TNC leaders are algo concemed thet, wih the death of Saf al-Arab Gaddaf, the youngest son of Muammar Qackaf, tho Trpoll Goverment may pursue retalatton against the United States and its Westom alles through surrogate terrorist ‘groups, particularly Hezbollah. While the deaths of Bin Laden and Saif alArab are completely uncelated, two separate ‘and very dangerous groups will now be looking for revenge against the U.S. and is allies. (Gouree Comment: These knowledgeable sources belleve thatthe leaders ofthe TNC are also worried about the reaction tothe death of in Laden among rebel fighters and thelr supporters in Libya and Egypl, where the al Qa'ida leader was ‘ery popular. These TNC officals do not want the death of Bin Laden to affect thek relations withthe West or thelr support from NATO, the U.8,, France, oF Great Brian.) CONFIDENTIAL ‘May 2, 2011 Re: Bin Laden, AQ & Libya Latest report: During the early morning of May 2, 2011 sources with aocess tothe leadership of the Libyan rebeltion’s ruling Transitional National Council (TNC) stated in confidence that they are ‘concemed that the death of al Qa’ida leader Osama Bin Laden will inspire al Qa’ida in the {Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) to use weapons they have obtained, which were originally intended for the rebels in Libya, to retaliate against the United States and its allies for ths attack in Pakistan. ‘These individuals fear thatthe use of the weepons in this manner will complicate the TNC’s relationship with NATO and the United States, whose support is vital to them in their strugste ‘with the forces of Muammar al Qaddafi. In this regard they are concemed that U.S. officials will believe reports, often created by the Tripoli Government, regarding the degree of influence exercised by AQIM on the TNC. ‘These individuals note that the TNC officials are reacting to reports received during the week of April 25 from their own sources of information, the French General Directorate for External Security (DGSE), and British external intelligence service (MI-6), stating that AQIM has acquired about 10 SAM 7- Grail/Streela man-portable air-defense systems (MANPADS or PADS) from illegal weapons markets in Western Niger and Northern Mali. These weapons ‘were originally intended for sale to the rebel forces in Libya, but AQIM operatives were able to set secretly with these erms dealers and purchase the equipment. The acquisition of these sophisticated weapons creates a serious threat to air traffic in Southem Morocco, Algeria, ‘Norther Mali, Westen Niger, and Eastem Mauritania. (Source Comment: According to very sensitive sources, the Libyan rebels are concerned that AQIM may also obtain SPIGOTT wire-guided anti-tank missiles and an unspecified number of Russian anti-tank mines made of plastic and undetectable by anti-mine equipment. This ‘equipment again was coming through Niger and Mali, and was intended forthe rebels in Libya. ‘They note that AQIM is very strong in this region of Northwest Aftica.) In the opinion of these knowledgeable individuals, Libyan rebel commanders are also concerned thatthe death of Bin Laden comes ata time when sensitive information indicates thatthe leaders ‘of AQIM are planning to launch attacks across North Aftica and Europe in an effort to reassert their retevance during the ongoing upheavals in Libya, as well as the rest of North Aftica and the ‘Middle East. They believe the first step inthis campaign was the April 30 bombing of a café in Marrakesh, Morocco that is frequented by Wester tourists. These individuals point out that ‘AQIM also maintains a wide reach in Burope. ‘The TNC leaders are also concerned that, wth the death of Saif al-Arab Quddf, the youngest 100 of Muammar Qeddafi the Tripoll Government may pursue retaliation against the United States and its Wester allies through surrogate terrorist groups, particularly Hezbollah. While the deaths of Bin Laden and Saif al-Areb are completely unrelated, two separate and very dangerous groups will now be looking for revenge against the U.S. and its allies. (Source Comment: These knowledgeable sources believe thet the leaders of the TNC are also ‘worried about the reaction to the death of Bin Laden among rebel fighters and their supporters in Libya and Egypt, where the al Qa’ida leader was very popular. These TNC officials do not want the death of Bin Laden to affect their relations with the West or their support from NATO, the US, France, or Great Britain.) I Sullvan, Jecob J Friday, May 6, 2011 207 AM # from: Sent: Ter Subject: Re: H: UBL, AQ & Libya, Sid Strikes me as a fitle strange. But certainly disturbing. | will pass info on. More to pass on—disturbing, if true. Fro EE cats sorte Sent: Monday, My 02, 2011 09:12 AH CONFIDENTIAL, May 2, 2011 Latest report ‘uring the earfy morning of May 2, 2011 sources with access tothe leadership ofthe Libyan rebeltion's ruling Transitional ‘National Council (TNC) staled in confidence that they are concerned thatthe deeth of al Qe"da teader Osama Bin Laden ‘ill inspire al Qa'ka in the Isiamic Maghreb (AQIM fo use weapons they have obtained, which were originally intended {or the rebels in Libya, to retaliate against the United States anv ts alles for ths altack in Pekistan. ‘These Individuals fear thatthe use ofthe weapons inthis manner will complicate the TNC's relationship with NATO and the United States, \whose supports vital to them In heir struggle withthe forces of Muammar al Gaddaf. In this regard they are conoered {hetU.S. offile wil beleve reports, often created by the Tripoli Government, regarding tha degree of uence exercised by AGIM on the TNC. ‘These individuals note that the TNC officials are reacting to reports received during the week of April 25 from their own. ‘s0ur0es of information, the French General Directorate for External Security (DGSE), and Britsh external inteligence ‘service (MI-), stating that AQIM has acquired about 10 SAM 7- GrallStreela man-portable ai-defense systems (MANPADS or MPADS) from illegal weapons markets in Wester Niger and Northern Mall, These weapons were: ‘originally Intended forsale tothe rebel foroes In Libya, but AGIM operatives were able to meet secretly with these arms Sealer and puss tbe equpmen. The sequin of hee chile! weapons cea a scan Ueno a aie Wn Southern! Algeria, Northern Mall, Western Niger, and Mauritania. (Source Comment: According o vary senskive sources, the Libyen rebels are concerned that AIM may also obtain 'SPIGOTT wre-guided anti-tank miasies and an unspeciied number of Russian ant-tank mines made of plastic and Lndetectable by antlmine equipment. This equipment again was coming trough Niger and Mall, and wae intended forthe rebels in Lbye. They note thet AIM le very strong inthis region of Northwest Aca.) In the opinion of these knowledgeable Individuals, Libyan rebel commanders are also concerned that the death of Bin [Laden comes at tie when senskive information indicates thatthe leaders of AQIM are planning to launch attacks ‘across North Attica and Europe inn effort to reassert thelr relevance during the ongoing upheavals In Libya, 28 woll ax the rest of North Afica end the Middle East. They baieve the fir step nthe campaign wae the Apr! $0 bombing of @ caf Maren, Woroceo at Reqenied by Weer oat. These advil oct at AQ lo meting ‘side reach in Europe. ‘The TNC leaders are alao concerned that, with the death of aif al-Arab Qaddaf, the youngest son of Muammar Qaddafi, {be Trpoll Government may pursue retalation against he United States and ite Wester alles through surrogate tarorat ‘groups, particulety ‘White the Geathe of Bin Laden and Saif al.Arab are completely unrelated, two separate [and very dangerous groupe wit now be tocking for revange againat the U.S. and ts alles, (Gource Comment: ‘sourcas belave tha the leaders of the TNC are aiso worted about the reaction {ike doctor Lager among eel Ages and ta euppriers in bya ana Egypt uber the al Ga loader won ‘very popular. These TNC officiel do net want the death of Bin Laden to affect ther relations with the West or thelr ‘support from NATO, tre U.8., France, or Gret Brin.) From: sbwhoeo, Sent: Friday, June: [238 PM Te: 4 Subject: H: New memo: Q's secret bid to UK. Sid CONFIDENTIAL June 3, 2011 For: Hillary From: Sid Re: Q's seoret bid to UK. (On the morning of June 2, 2011 sensitive sources with access to the advisors to Muammar Qaddafi’s son, Saif al-Islam, stated in strict confidence that the Libyan government has opened extremely complicated negotiations with the government of the United Kingdom (UK) in an effor: to obtain their support in reaching a ceasefire ‘agreement with the rebels of the Libyan Transitional National Council (TNC), allowing the Qaddafi’s to maintain some level of control in the country. ‘This initiative is directed by Saif alslam and, aecotding to these sensitive sourees, the Libyans have asked the UK officials to broker a deal with the TNC that will allow some form of power sharing, with the possibility of Saif al-Islam acting as head of state and the TNC members making up a substantial portion of the cabinet in a ‘ew government, ‘Under the plan Muammar Qaddafi would be allowed to leave the country and go into exile ‘with no danger of indictment on charges of human rights abuses and corruption by Libyan or international courts. (Source Comment: In the opinion of these sensitive sources, this initiative reflects the concer of the Qaddafi government that as a result of continuing NATO air raids against their forees, they can no longer defeat the rebel army. They add that there has been no firm response from the UK government, and the initial discussions have been condiscted by officers of the British Special Intelligence Service (SIS / MI-6). In the opinion of these same sources the initial idea of these talks may have been raised by former. Libyan Foreign Minister Mousa Kousa, after his arrival in London in late March 2011.) According to these sensitive sources, Saif al-Islam and his advisors realize that there is little chance the TNC ‘will agree to such an offer, and that SIS may be using this contact as a means of collecting intelligence while protecting British interests in Libya, Notwithstanding this concer, in the opinion of these individuals, Saif al- Islam believes that introducing the possibility of a ceasefire and the subsequent negotiations may create divisions within NATO and weaken their military operations against Qeddafi's forces. (Source Comment: Thess sources add that many of Saif al-Lslam’s advisors do not know if, or to what extent, the UK Government has shared knowledge of this initiative with the governments of the United States and the other NATO allies.) At the same time, sources with access to the operations of the TNC military committee state privately that om. ‘June 1, 2011 Libyan intelligence officers detonated a car bomb outside the Tibesti Hotel in the TNC capital of ‘Benghaai. One person was injured in the blast and a number of nearby vehicles were damaged. TNC security officers occupied the hotel and the surrounding area immediately after the attack, but were not able to identify any of the attackers. The Tibesti Hotel is en important landmark in the heart of Benghazi and is used by the ‘TNC government, as well by forsign journalists and diplomats, Hotel security has beea heightened in the hours following the attack and all foreign residents are under surveillance by TNC security officers, looking for suspicious activities and contacts, From: Sent: To: Subject: sbwhoeop| Friday, June 238 PM H H: memo attached on q secret bid to uk, Sid fhre memo q secret bid UK 060311 docx; hre memo q secret bid UK 060311 docx CONFIDENTIAL June 3, 2011 For: Hillary From: Sid Re: Q's secret bid to UK. On the morning of June 2, 2011 sensitive sources with access to the advisors to Muammar Qauldafi's son, Saif al-Islam, stated in strict confidence thatthe Libyan povernment has opened extremely complicated negotiations with the government of the United Kingdom (UK) in an effort to obtain their support in reaching a ceasefire agreement with te rebels of the Libyan. ‘Transitional National Council (TNC), allowing the Qaddafi’s to maintain some level of control in the country. ‘This initiative is directed by Saif al-Islam and, according to these sensitive sources, the Libyans have asked the UK officials to broker a deal with the TNC that will allow some form of power sharing, with the possibility of Saif al-Islam acting as head of state and the TNC members ‘making up a substantial portion of the cabinet in a new government. Under the plan Muammar ‘Qaddafi would be allowed to leave the country and go into exile with no danger of indictment on charges of human rights ebuses and corruption by Libyan or international courts, (Source Comment: In the opinion of these sensitive sources this initiative reflects the concern of the Qaddafi government that as a result of continuing NATO air raids against thei forces, they ccan no longer defeat the rebel army. They add that there has been no firm response from the UK. government, and the initial discussions have been conducted by officers of the British Special Intelligence Service (SIS / MI-6). In the opinion of these same sources the initial idea of these talks may bave been raised by former Libyan Foreign Minister Mousa Kousa, after his arrival in London in late March 2011.) According to these sensitive sources, Saif el-Islam and his advisors realize that there is little chance the TNC will agree to such en offer, and that SIS may be using this contact as a means of collecting intelligence while protecting British interests in Libya. Notwithstanding this concern, in the opinion of these individuals, Saif al-Islam believes that introducing the possibility of a ceasefire and the subsequent negotiations may create divisions within NATO and weaken theit military operations against Qaddafi’s forces. (Gource Comment:’ These sources add that many of Saif al-[slam’s advisors do not know if, ot to ‘what extent, the UK Government has shared knowledge of this initiative with the governments of the United States and the other NATO allies.) At the same time, sources with scceas tothe operations of the TNC military committe stato privately that on June 1, 2011 Libyan intelligence officers detonated a car bomb outside the Tibesti Hotel in the TNC capital of Benghazi, One person was injured inthe blast and a number of nearby vehicles were damaged, TNC security officers occupied the hotel and the surrounding area immediately after the attack, but were not able to identify any of the attackers. The Tibesti Hotel is an important landmark in the heart of Benghazi and is used by the TNC government, as ‘well by foreign journalists and diplomats. Hotel security has been heightened in the hours following the attack and all foreign residents are under surveillance by TNC security officers, looking for suspicious activities and contacts. CONFIDENTIAL Sune 3, 2011 On the morning of June 2, 2011 sensitive sources with access to the advisors to Muammar addatis son, Saif al-Islam, stated in strict confidence that the Libyan goverment has opened ‘extremely complicated negotiations with the government of the United Kingdom (UK) in an effort to obtain their support in reaching a ceasefire agreement with the rebels ofthe Libyan ‘Transitional National Council (TNC), allowing the Qaddafi’s to maintain some level of control inthe country. “This initiative is dicected by Saif al-Islam and, according to these sensitive sources, the Libyans have asked the UK officials to broker a deal with the T'NC that will allow some form of power sharing, with the possibility of Saif al-Islam acting a head of state and the TNC members ‘making up a substantial portion ofthe cabinet in anew government. Under the plan Muammar ‘Qaddafi would be allowed to leave the country and go into exile with no danger of indictment on ‘charges of human rights abuses and corruption by Libyan or international courts, (Gource Comment: In the opinion of these sensitive sources, this initiative reflects the concem of the Qaddafi government that as a result of continuing NATO air aids against their forces, they ‘ean n0 longer defeat the rebel army. They edd that there has been no firm response from the UK government, andthe intial discussions have been conducted by officers of the British Special Intelligence Service (SIS / MI-6). In the opinion of these same sources the initial idea of these talks may have been raised by former Libyan Foreign Minister Mousa Kouse after his arrival in London in tate March 201 1.) in the opinion ofthese individuals, Saif al-Islam ceasefire and the subsequent negotiations may create divisions within NATO and weaken their military operations against Qaddaf's forces. (Source Comment: These sources add that many of Saif al-Islam’s advisors do not koow if, or to ‘what extent, the UK Government has shared knowledge of this initiative with the governments of the United States and the other NATO allies.) ‘At the same time, sources with access to the operations of the TNC military committee state ‘Privately that on June 1, 2011 Libyan intelligence officers detonated a car bomb outside the ‘Tibesti Hotel in the TNC capital of Benghazi. One person wes injured in the blast and a number ‘of nearby vehicles were damaged. TNC security officers occupied the hotel and the surounding area immediately after the attack, but were not able to identify any of the attackers. The Tibesti ‘Hotel is an important landmark in the heart of Benghazi and is used by the TNC government, as well by foreign journalists end diplomats, Hotel security bas been heightened in the hours following the attack and all foreign residents are under surveillance by TNC security officers, ooking for suspicious activities and contacts. From: H chrod17@dlintonemallcom> Sent: Friday, June 3, 2011 1:54 PM To cc Subject: Jake-fyi Lauren~pls print, = ooo ‘Sent: Friday, June 03, 2011 12:37 PM ‘To: H ‘Subject: H: New memo: Q's secret bid to UK. Sid CONFIDENTIAL June 3, 2011 For. Hillary From: Sid Re: Q's secret bid to UK (On the morning of June 2, 2011 sensitive sources with access to the advisors to Muammar Qaddafi's son, Saif al-slam, stated in strict confidence that the Libyan government has opened extremely complicated negotiations with the government of the United Kingdom (UK) in an effort to obtain their support in reaching a ceasefire agreement with the rebels of the Libyan Transitional Netional Counc (TNC), allowing the Qaddafi's to maintain some level of control inthe country. ‘This initiative is directed by Stif al-Islam and, according to these sensitive sources, the Libyans have asked the UK officials to broker a deal with the TNC that will allow some form of power sharing, with the possibility of ‘Seif al-Islam acting as head of state and the TNC members making up a substantial portion of the cabinetin & now goverament, Under the plan Muammar Qaddafi would be allowed to leave the country and go into exile ‘with no danger of indictment on charges of human rights abuses and corruption by Libyan or international. courts. (Source Comment: In the opinion of these sensitive sources, this initiative reflects the concern of the Qaddafi ‘government that as a result of continuing NATO air raids against their forces, they can no longer dofeat the rebel army. They add that there has been no firm response from the UK government, and the initial discussions ‘have been conducted by officers of the British Special Intelligence Service (SIS / MI-6). In the opinion of these ‘same sources the initial idea of these talks may have been raised by former Libyan Foreign Minister Mousa ‘Kousa, after his arrival in London in late March 2011.) According to these sensitive sources, Saif al-Islam and his advisors realize that there is little chance the TNC ‘will agree to such an offer, and that SIS may be using tis contact as a means of collecting intelligence while ‘protecting British interests in Libya, Notwithstanding this concem, in the opinion of these individuals, Saif al- Islam believes that introducing the possibility of a ceasefire and the subsequent negotiations may create divisions within NATO and weaken their military operations against Qaddafi's forces, (Gource Comment; These sources add that many of Suif al-Islam’s advisors do not know if, or to what extent, the UK Government has shared inowledge of this initiative with the governments of the United States and the other NATO allies.) ‘At the same time, sources with access to the operations of the TNC military committee state privately that on June 1, 2011 Libyan intelligence officers detonated a car bomb outside the Tibesti Hotel in the TNC capital of Benghazi. One person was injured in the blast and a number of nearby vehicles were damaged. TNC socurity officers occupied the hotel and the surrounding area immediately ater the attack, but were not able to identify any ofthe attackers. The Tibesti Hotel is an important landmark in the heart of Benghazi and is used by the ‘TNC government, as well by foreign journalists and diplomats. Hotel security has been heightened inthe hours following the attack and all foreign residents aro under surveillance by TNC secutity officers, looking for suspicious activities and contacts. En From Sullivan, Sacob J Sent: Friday, June 3, 2011 7343 PM Te: 4 Subject: RE: Ht New mamo: Q's sacrat bid to UK. Sid Interesting. rom: H [malto: HORZ2@dintonemal.com) ‘Sent: Friday, June 03, 2011 1:54 PM ‘Ta: Suliver, Jacob 3 (Ger Hoty, Lauren C ‘Subojoct: Pw: Ht: New memo: (fs secret bid to UK. Sid To: ‘Subject: H; New memo: Q's secret bid to UK. Ski CONFIDENTIAL June 3, 2011 nthe morning of June 2, 2011 sensitive sources with access tothe advisors to Muammar Qaddaii's son, Saif al-Islam, stated in strict confidence that the Libyan government has opened extremely complicated negotiations ‘with the government of the United Kingdom (UK) in an effort to obtain their support in reaching a ceasefire agreement with the rebels ofthe Libyan Transitional National Council (TNC), allowing the Qaddaf's to maintain some level of control in the country. “This initiative is dicected by Saif al-Islam and, according to these sensitive sources, the Libyans have asked the UK officials to broker a deal with the TNC that will alow some form of power sharing, with the possibility of ‘Saif al-Islam acting as head of state and the TNC members making up a substantial portion of the eabinet in a new government, Under the plan Muammar Qaddafi would be allowed to leave the country and go into exile with no danger of indictment on charges of human rights abuses and corruption by Libyan ot intemational courts. (Source Comment: In the opinion of these sensitive sources, this initiative reflects the concer of the Qaddafi government that as a result of continuing NATO air raids against their forces, they can no longer defeat the rebel army. They add that there has been no firm response from the UK government, and the initial discussions hhave been conducted by officers of the British Special Intelligence Service (SIS / MI-6). In te opinion of these same sources the initial idea ofthese talks may have been raised by former Libyan Foreign Minister Mousa Kouse, after his arrival in London in late March 2011.) According to these sensitive sources, Saif al-Islam and his advisors realize that there is little chance the TNC will agree to such an offer, and that SIS may be using this contact as a means of collecting intelligence while British interests in Libya. Notwithstanding this concern, in the opinion of these individuals, Saif al- Inlam believes that introducing the possibility of ceasefire anu the subsequent negotiations may create divisions within NATO and weaken their military operations against Qaddafi's forces. (Source Comment: These sources add that many of Saf al-Islam’s advisors do not know if, otto what extent, the UK Goverment bas shared knowledge ofthis initiative with the governments of the United States and the other NATO allies ) ‘At the same time, sources with access to the operations of the TNC military committee state privately that on. June 1, 201 1 Libyan intelligence officers detonated a car bomb outside the Tibesti Hotel in the TNC capital of ‘Benghazi. One person was injured in the blast and a number of nearby vehicles were damaged. TNC security officers occupied the hotel and the surrounding area immediately after the attack, but were not able to identify any of the attackers. The Tibesti Hote! is an important landmark in the heart of Benghazi and’is used by the ‘INC government, es well by foreign journalists and diplomats. Hotel security has been heightened in the hours following the attack and all foreign residents are under surveillance by TNC seourity officers, looking for ‘suspicious activities and contacts. . ee From: sbwhoeop EE Sent: Monday, August 8 2011 7:04 PM To: H Subject: H: Who killed Younis and why. Sid Attachments; fire memo who kled younis 090811.docx, hrc memo who ted younis 0808 11.docx CONFIDENTIAL ‘August, 2011 For: Hilary From: Sid Re: Who killed Younis GOURCE: Sources wih access tothe LbyanTrantional Nation! Count aa well ae Wester ntaligence and socurty series. ‘During the moming of August 5, 2011 sources with direct access to sonir levels ofthe Libyan Transnational Counc (TNC) stated in stictest confidence thatthe rebel miltary commander, General Abdel Fatan Younis was exocaited by srearty forces on orders from TNC Chalman Mustapha Jal. According fo these sources, in lata July 2011 TNC security Ofcers received what they beliaved to be relable Information that Younis was involved in a saoret dialogue with Sait fsiam Geddaf, the eon of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafl. These discussions involved planning for Younis and Saif st {slam to establish e government of reconcllation, wth Muernmar Qaddafi ling in intemal exile, and the TNC being Gebanded in favor of offlas, and milary officers loyal to Saif ané Younis. Jal ordered Younis’ arrest, and once he was In TNC custody Instructed securty officers to shoot the army commander. ‘According to these kn individuals, Jalil and his supporters began disseminating the story that Younis was fated by ether pro-Caaddafl forces, or Islamic racic within the TNC miltary. There s ne Indcation that rebel Prime, Ministet Mahmoud Jab, bie senior aid Abdul Hafiz. Ghoza, overall miltary commander General Abdelessalem Jatloud, or ‘Younis roplacament ae ald commander General Khalifa Haar were involved in the decision to execute Younis. ‘Younis, was a former senior military officer and Minister of Interior in the Qaddafi regime, who joined the rebels in February 2071, efter serving his friend Muammar Gadde for over 40 years. When Younis first jlned the rebel forces ‘TNC secur offcers placed hin under survellance, believing that he might have been sent by Caddaftoinfitrate thelr Tanks, After a varity ofoyally tests he wes welcomed into he rebel leadership, however, it now appears thatthe security aficararained he coverape of Younis ad at some oint in early July established his contact with Saif alslem (Source Comment: Knowledgeable sources state that Jalil and his secuy forces fel that Younis’ actions posed an {mediate threat to the TNC and the ongoing revolution, Jal made the decision to order Younis’ arrest and execution rather than submit the maler for debate n the 31 member TNC. To date these sources add that there is no indleation that none of the TNC members have challenged Jaits decision.) Jail remains committed to defeating the Qaddafi regime and is unwiling to negotiate with Saif a-istam, or another ‘representative of Muammar Qaddafl. Acoording to these sources, Jail beleves reports thatthe Saif - Younls negotiations: had atleast the tacit support of the governments ofthe United States, Germany, France, and Russia, (Gource comment: A separate sensitive source noted that Jalil remains highly suspicious of the activities of the four ‘govemments, and has privately expressed hostity toward their representatives in TNC capital of Benghazl. That said he 's well aware ofthe fact that he wil need the support ofthe major powers, particularly the United States, to guarantee the future ofthe TNC government) CONFIDENTIAL, ‘Angus 8, 2011 For: Hillary From: Sid Re: Who killed Younis SOURCE: Sources with access to the Libyan Transitional National Council as well as Western Intelligence and security services. During the morning of August 5, 2011 sources with direct access to senior levels ofthe Libyan ‘Transnational Council (TNC) stated in strictest confidence thatthe rebel military commander, Generel Abdel Fatah Younis was executed by security forces on orders from TNC Chairman Mustapha Jalil. According to these sources, in late July 2011 TNC seoutity officers received ‘what they believed to be reliable information thet Younis was involved in a secret dialogue with Saif al-Islam Qaddafi the son of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi. These discussions involved planning for Younis and Seif al-Islam to establish a government of reconciliation, with ‘Muammar Qaddafi living in intemal exile, and the TNC being disbanded in favor of officials, ‘and military officers loyal to Saif and Younis. Jalil ordered Younis’ arrest, and once he was in ‘TNC custody instructed security officers to shoot the army commander. According to these knowledgeable individuals, Jalil and bis supporters began disseminating the story that Younis was killed by either pro-Quddafi forces, or Islamic radicals within the TNC military, There is no indication that rebel Prime Minister Mahmoud Jabril, his senior aid Abdul Hafiz Ghoza, overall military commander General Abdelessalem Jalloud, or Younis replacement 4s field commander General Khalifa Haftar were involved in the decision to execute Younis. ‘Younis, was a former senior military officer and Minister of Interior in the Qaddafi regime, who joined the rebels in February 2011, after serving his friend Muammar Qaddafi for over 40 years, ‘When Younis first joined the rebel forces TNC security officers placed him under surveillance, believing that he might have been sent by Qaddafi to infiltrate their ranks, Aftera variety of loyalty tests he was welcomed into the rebel leadership, however, it now appears that the security officers maintained their coverage of Younis and at some point in early July established his contact with Saif al-Islam Qaddafi. (Source Comment: Knowledgeable sources state that Jalil and his security forces felt that ‘Younis’ actions posed an immediate threat to the TNC and the ongoing revolution, Jalil made the decision to order Younis’ arrest and execution rather than submit the matter for debate in the 31 member TNC. To date these sources add that there is no indication that none of the TNC. ‘members have challenged Jalil's decision) Jalil remains committed to defeating the Qaddafi regime and is unwilling to negotiate with Saif al-Islam, or another representative of Muammar Qaddsti. According to these sources, Jalil believes reports that the Saif ~ Younis negotiations had at least the tacit support of the governments of the United States, Germany, France, and Russia. (Source comment: .A separate sensitive source noted that Jalil remains highly suspicious of the Activities of the four governments, and has privately expressed hostility toward their representatives in TNC capital of Benghazi, That said he is well aware ofthe fact tat he will need the support of the major powers, particulary the United States, to guarantee the future of the TNC government.) aa sou ‘Thursday, January 5, 2012 12:26 PM From: Sent: To: H Subject: H: latest intel oyan conf, leaders & militias, Si ‘Adtachments: fre memo, Noyan_Jeaders. fc militias, 0105 12docx ‘CONFIDENTIAL January §, 2012 For: HRC From: Sid Re: Libyan leadership and militias SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services, 1. Duting the last week of December 2011, and the first week of 2012, Libya's Prime Minister ‘Abdurrahim el-Ketb and President Mustafa Abdul Jalil engaged in a series of emergency planning, meetings attempting to dea! with specific issues threatening the stability of the new National ‘Transitional Counell (NTC) Government. According to extremely sensitive sources speaking in strict confidence, paramount among these issues are the questions of disarming and rewarding the regional militias who bore the majority of the fighting against the regime of Muammar al Qaddafi, as well as the related issue of finding ministers and senior administrators for the new government who are acceptable to these revolutionary forces. ‘These individuals noted that on four occasions, beginning on December 23, 2011, groups or angry militiamen came to el-Kefb's office and demanded better treatment, a clear message of support for the role of Islamic law, and the removal of former Qaddafi advisors from the new government. 2. (Source Comment: In the opinion of very sensitive souice, l-Keib is genuinely concerned ‘that this situation could spiral out of control and threatens the regime. He also suspects that much of ‘the unrest is being stirred by General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj and his conservative Islamist supporters. By staying out ofthe new government, Belhaj has established a position from which be ‘can eriticize their actions and appointments without concern or control. That said, el — Keil has been told by his contacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) that even Belhaj has been surprised that the unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself in fighting between groups that previously shared ‘the same goals and operated under Belhaj’s loose command, This is particularly true in the case of the increasingly violent conflicts between the Misrata and Zintan regional militias.) ’3, Inan effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new administration, removing Minister of Eeonomics Taher Sherkaz, who, as a former economic advisor to Qaddafi, was a told by his contacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) that even Belhaj has been surprised that the ‘unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself in fighting between groups that previously shared the same goals and operated under Bellaj’s loose command. ‘This is particularly true in the ease of the increasingly violent conflicts between the Misrata and Zintan regional militiss.) 4, In.an effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new administration, removing Minister of Economics Taher Sherkaz, who, as a former economic advisor to Qaddafi, was a particular target of the militiamen. In the opinion of well informed individuals, el-Keib's closest and ‘most influential advisors are experts with economic backgrounds ahd experience dealing with ‘Western firms and governments, ‘The most influential of this group are Minister of Oil Abdulrahman Ben Yezza, Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam, National Oil Company chief Nuri Berrusien, and Ngeb Obeda from the Libyan Stock Exchange. 4. (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, cl-Keib and Jalil are also very ‘concerned over growing criticism that these technocrats are puppets of various Western governments and firms, Belhaj and the militiamen appear intent on limiting the influence of these Western entities, using them as a weapon to weaken the el-Keib regime. This trend is also affecting national security, where, despite el-Keib’s offorts to maintain a balance between the Islamists, regional commanders, and the national army, a potentially dangerous conflict has arisen over the position of Chief of Staff of the National Army. El-Kieb, according to this individual, believes that he must settle ‘this matter in short order to avoid provoking security concems among foreign allies and businesses contacts.) ‘5. According to a knowledgeable individual, in late December 2011el-Kieb resisted efforts by General Khalifa Belgasim Haftar to establish himself as the Chief of Staff of the National Army. Haftar, who lived in the United States for many years and is believed by Belhaj and others to have a relationship with the U.S. Government, is using his popularity among the officer corps of the regular NTC anmy to support his claim to be Chief of Staff. This produced heated protests from militia leaders and in late December 20%1el-Keib named deputy Minister of Defense Colonel Yussef al- ‘Mangoush, to be Chief of Staff. In the opinion of one source, this is a problematie choice, since el- Keib is replacing the supposedly pro-American Hafter with el-Mangoush who commanded one of Qadafi’s elite Special Forces units, even after the revolution began. This individual believes that el- Keib’s decision was driven by personal animosity toward Haftar, and the influence of Minister of Defense Osama al-Juwali. The situation is far from resolved, as Haftar and his supporters, particularly in the Benghazi garrison, continue to claim that the General is the true Chief of Staff, HI- Keib and al-Juwali are working to reconcile all of the elements in this conflict as quickly es possible, before tho supporters of the two claimants begin fighting. In the meantime, el-Keib has stated im private that he fully expects Belhaj to attack al-Mangoush, but the Prime Minister believes that the Colonel is the only officer strong enough to disarm the militias and avoid a civil war. 6. At the same time, a very sensitive source added that el-Keib and Jalil are attempting to reconcile the fighting between Misrata and Zintan forces in Tripoli by naming Misrata leader Fawzi ‘Abd Ali as Minister of the Interior and el-Juwali, who was commander of the Zintan militia, as Minister of Defense. To date, according to this individual, this effort has met with limited success, as the fighting has continued and the militias are refusing to disarm until their demands regarding living standards are met. 7. (Gouree Comment: One very sensitive source noted, that el-Keib is aware of the fact that he is running out of time to stabilize the situation in Libya. He believes that ifhe does not disarm the ‘ilitias and meet their demands in the next six months there is a good chance of increased fighting among rival groups that could lead to civil war. In any event, he realizes that the ongoing instability will cause Western governments, firms, and banks, to hesitate before committing themselves to long term relationships with Libya. El-Keib believes that Belhaj and his advisors have made the same judament and are {0 fill any vacuum created by this violence, by establishing a conservative ic Republic, CONFIDENTIAL January 5, 2012 For; HRC From: Sid Re: Libyan leadership and militias SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levels of Buropean Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services. 1. During the last week of December 2011, and the first week of 2012, Libya’s Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Keib and President Mustafa Abdul Jalil engaged in a series of ‘emergency planning meetings attempting to deal with specific issues threatening the stability of the new National Transitional Council (NTC) Government, According to extremely sensitive ‘sources speaking in strict confidence, paramount among these issues are the questions of Gsarming and rewarding the regional militias who bore the majotity of the fighting against the regime of Muammar al Qaddafi, as well asthe related issue of finding ministers and senior ‘adesinistrators forthe new government who are acceptable to these revolutionary forces, These individuals noted that on four occasions, beginning on December 23, 2011, groups or angry militiamen came to e-Keib’s office and demanded better treatment, a clear message of support for the role of Islemic law, and the removal of former Qaddafi advisors from the new government, 2, (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, ol-Keib is gemuinely ‘concemed that this situation could spiral out of contol and threatens the regime, Hle also ‘suspects that much ofthe unrest is being stired by General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj and his conservative Islamist supporters, By staying out of the new government, Belhaj has established 1 position from which he can criticize thei actions and appointments without concem or control. ‘That said, el -Keib has been told by his contacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) that even Belhaj has been surprised that the unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself infighting ‘between groups that previously shared the same goals and operated under Belhaj’s loose ‘command. This is particularly tre inthe case ofthe increasingly violent conflicts betwesn the Misrata and Zintan regional militias.) 3. In an effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new administration, removing Minister of Economics Taber Sherkaz, who, as a former economic. sor to Qaddafi, was a particular target of the militiamen, In the opinion of well informed individuals, el-Keib's closest and most influential advisors are experts with economic backgrounds and experience dealing with Westem firms and governments. The most: influential: of this group are Minister of Oil Abdulrehman Ben Yezza, Minister of Finance Hassan Zigiam, ‘National Oil Company chief Nuri Berrusien, and Ngeb Obeda ftom the Libyan Stock Exchange, 4, (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib and Jalil aro also very concemed over growing criticism that these technocrats are puppets of various Western governments and firms. Bella) and the militiamen appear intent on limiting the influence of ‘these Western entities, using them as a weapon to weaken the el-Keib regime, This trend is also affecting national security, where, despite el-Keib's efforts to maintain a balance between the Islamists, regional commanders, andthe national army, a potentially dangerous conflict hes arisen over the position of Chief of Staff of the National Anmy. EI-Kieb, according to this individual, believes that he must settle this matter in short order to avoid provoking security concerts among foreign allies and businesses contacts.) 3. According to a knowledgeable individual, in late December 2011el-Kieb resisted efforts by General Khalifa Belqasim Haftar to establish himself a the Chief of Staff of the ‘National Army, Haftar, who lived in the United States for many years and is believed by Belhaj ‘and others to have a relationship with the U.S. Government, is using his popularity among the ‘officer corps of the regular NTC army to support his claim tobe Chief of Staff. This produced hheated protests from militia leaders and in late December 201 1el-Keib named deputy Minister of ‘Defense Colonel Yusef al-Mangoush, to be Chief of Staff. In the opinion of one source, this a problematic choice, since el-Keib is replacing the supposedly pro-American Haftar with a: ‘Mangoush who commanded one of Qaddafi’ elite Special Forces units, even after the revolution began. This individual! believes that el-Kei's decision was driven by personal animosity toward Hiaftar, andthe influence of cof Defense Osama al-Juwali. ‘The situation is far fromm resolved, as Haftar and his supporters, particularly in the Benghazi garrison, continue to claim ‘that the General is the true Chief of Staff, Hl-Keib and al-Juwali are working to reconcile all of the elements in this conflict as quickly as possible, before the supporters of the two claimants begin fighting. In the meantime, l-Keib has stated in private tha he fully expects Belhaj to attack al-Mangoush, but the Prime Minister believes thatthe Colonel isthe only officer strong ‘enough to disarm the militias and avoid a civil war. 6. Atthe same time, a very sensitive source added that e-Keib and Jalil are atterapting to reconcile the fighting between Misrata and Zintan forces in Tripoli by naming Misrata leader Fawai Abd Ali as Minister of the Interior and al-Juwali, who was commander of the Zintan silitia, as Minister of Defense. To date, according to this individual, this effort has met with limited siocess, os the fighting bas continued and the militias are refusing to disarm uni their demands regarding living standards are met. 7. (Gource Comment: One very sensitive source noted, that el-Keib is aware ofthe fact that he is running out of time to stabilize the situation in Libya. Ho believes that if he does not disarm the militias and meet their demands in the next six months there is a good chance of increaded fighting among rival groups that could lead to civil war. In any event, he realizes that the ongoing instability will cause Western governments, fitms, and banks, to hesitate before ‘committing themselves to long term relationships with Libya. El-Keib believes that Belhaj and his advisors have made the same judgment, and are waiting to fill any vacuum created by this violence, by establishing a conservative Islamic Republic.) H Thursday, January 5, 2012 5:16 PM ‘sullvanj@stategov Fr H: latest intel libyan confit, leaders & ites. id tre. meme_ fixer leaders fc mites, 10512.doce es Worrying. Pls distribute and request feedback from Jeff, Cretz, etal, From: st [maiito:sbwhc fon ee ot =n ‘Subject: H: latest Intel Ibyan conflicts, leaders & militias. Sid CONFIDENTIAL January 5, 2012 For: HRC From: Sid Re: Libyan leadership and militias SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services. 2. During the last week of December 2011, and the first week of 2012, Libya’s Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Keib and President Mustafa Abdul Jalil engaged in a series of emergency planning meetings attempting to deal with specific issues threatening the stability of the new National ‘Transitional Council (NTC) Government. According to extremely sensitive sources speaking in strict confidence, paramount among these issues are the questions of disarming and rewarding the regional tilitias who bore the majority of the fighting against the regime of Muammar al Qaddafi, as well as the related issue of finding ministers and senior administrators for the new government who are acceptable to these revolutionary forces. ‘These individuals noted! that on four occasions, boginning on December 23, 2011, groups or angry militiamen came to el-Keib's office and demanded better treatment, a clear message of support for therole of Islamic law, and the removal of former Qaddafi advisors from the new government. 2, (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib is genuinely concerned that this situation could spiral out of control and threatens the regime. He also suspects that much of the unrest is being stirred by General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj and his conservative Islamist supporters, By staying out of the new government, Belhaj has established a position from which he can criticize their actions and appointments without coneern or eontrol. ‘That said, el - Keib has been told by his contacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) that even Bethaj has been surprised thet the unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself in fighting between groups that previously shared the same goals and operated under Belhay’s loose command. This is particularly true in the case of the increasingly violent conflicts between the Misrata and Zintan regional militias.) 3. Inan effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new administration, removing Minister of Economics Taher Sherkaz, who, as a former economic advisor to Qaddafi, was a particular target of the militiamen. In the opinion of well informed individuals, el-Keib's closest and ‘most influential advisors are experts with economic backgrounds and’ ‘dealing with ‘Western firms and governments. The most influential of this group are Minister of Oil Abdulrahman Ben Yeaza, Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam, National Oil Company chief Nuri Berrusien, and Ngeb ‘Obeda from the Libyan Stock Exchange. 4- (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib and Jalil are also very ‘concerned over growing criticism that these technocrats are of various Western and firms. Belhaj and the militiamen appear intent on limiting the influence of these Western entities, using them as a weapon to weaken the el-Keib regime. This trend is also affecting national security, where, despite el-Keib's efforts to maintain a balance between the Islamists, regional commanders, and the netional army, a potentially dangerous contlict has arisen over the position of Chief of Staff of the National Army. El-Kieb, according to this individual, believes that he must settle ie alien in short order to avoid provoking security concerns among foreign allies and businesses contacts.) According to a knowledgeable individual, in late December 2011el-Kieb resisted efforts by Geporal alfa Beloasin Hats to establish hime ashe Chit of Staff of the National Amy. Haftar, who lived in the United States for many years and is believed by Belhaj and others to have a relationship with the U.S. Government, is using his popularity among the officer corps of the regular NIC army to support his claim to be Chief of Staff. This produced heated protests from maflitia leaders and in late December 20i1el-Ketb named deputy Minister of Defense Colonel Yussef al- ‘Mangoush, to be Chiof of Staff, In the opinion of one source, this is a problematic choice, since el- Keib is replacing the supposedly pro-American Haftar with al-Mangoush who commanded one of Qaddaf's elite Special Forces units, even after the revolution began. ‘This individual believes that el- Keib’s decision was driven by personal animosity toward Haftar, and the influence of Minister of Defense Osama al-Juwali. The situation is far from resolved, as Haftar and his supporters, particnlarly in the Benghazi garrison, continue to claim that tne General is the trne Chief of Staff. El- Kelb and al-Juwali are working to reconcile all ofthe elements in this conflict as quickly as possible, before the suppoxters of the two claimants begin fighting. In the meantime, el-Ketb has stated in that he fully expects Belhaj to attack al-Mangoush, but the Prime Minister believes that the Colonel is the only officer strong enough to disarm the militias and avoid a civil war. 6. Atthe same time, a very sensitive source added that el-Keib and Jalil are attempting to reconcile the fighting between Misrata and Zintan forces in Tripoli by naming Misrata leader Fawzi Abd Ali as Minister of the Interior and al-Juwali, who was commander of the Zintan militia, as Minister of Defense. To date, according to this individual, this effort has met with limited success, as the fighting has continued and the militias are refusing to disarm until their demands regarding living standards are met. 7. (Source Comment: One very sensitive source noted, that el-Keib is aware of the fact that he is running out of time to stabilize the situation in Libya. He believes that if he does not disarm the militias and meet their demands in the next six months there is a good chance of increased fighting among rival groups that could lead to civil war. In any event, he realizes that the ongoing instability ‘will eause Western governments, firms, and banks, to hesitate before committing themselves to long term relationships with Libya. EI-Keib believes that Belhaj and his advisors have made the same Judgment, and are waiting to fill any vacuum created by this violence, by establishing a conservative Islamic Republic.) ‘CONFIDENTIAL January 5, 2012 For, HRC ‘From: Sid Re: Libyan leadership and militias SOURCE: Sources with direct aocess to the Libyan Notional Transitions! Council, x well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Westem Intelligence and security services. 1. During the est week of December 2011, and the first week af 2012, Libya’s Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Kelb and President Mustafa Abdul Jalil engaged in a series of emergency planning meetings attempting to deal with specific issued threatening the stability of the new National Transitional Council (NTC) Government. Accanding to extremely sensitive sources speaking in strict confidence, paramount among these issues ere the questions of disarming and rewarding the regional militias who bore the majority of the fighting against the regime of Muammar al Qaddafi, as well as the related issue of finding ministors and senior administrators for the new government who are acceptable to these revolutionary forces. These individuals noted that on four occasions, beginning on December 23, 2011, groups or angry militiamen came to el-Keib’s office and demanded better treatment, a clear message of support for the role of Islamic law, and the removal of former Qaddafi advisors from the new goverment, 2. (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib is genuinely ‘concemed that this situation could spiral out of control and threatens the regime, He also suspects that much of the unrest is being stirred by General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhs) and his conservative Islamist supporters. By staying out of the new government, Bethaj has established 2 position from which he can criticize thelr actions and appointments without concern or control. ‘That said, el - Keib has been told by his contacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) that even ‘Bethaj hes been surprised thatthe unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself in fighting ‘between groups that previously shared the same goals and operated under Belhj’s loose ‘command. This is particularly true in the case of the increasingly violent conflicts between the ‘Miscata and Zintan regional militias.) 3. In an effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new stration, removing Minister of Economics Taher Sherkaz, who, as a former economic advisor to Qaddafi, was a particular target ofthe militiamen. Inthe opinion of well informed individuals, el-Keib’s closest and most influential advisors are experts with economic backgrounds and experience dealing with Wester firms and governments. The most influential of this group are Minister of Oil Abdulrahman Ben Yezza, Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglar, ‘National Oil Company chief Nuri Berrusien, and Ngeb Obeda from the Libyan Stock Exchange. 4, (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib and Jalil are ‘lo very concerned over growing otiticism that these technocrats are puppets of various Western ‘governments and firms. Belhaj and the militiamen appear intent on limiting the influence of ‘these Western entities, using them as a weapon to weaken the el-Keib regime. This trend is also affecting national security, where, despite el-Keib’s efforts to maintain a balance between the Istamists, regional commanders, and the national army, a potentially dangerous conflict has atisen over the position of Chief of Staff of the National Army. El-Kieb, according to this individual, believes that he must setle this matter in short order to avoid provoking security ‘concerns among foreign allies and businesses contacts.) |. According to a knowledgeable individual, in late December 201 el-Kieb resisted efforts by General Khalifa Befgasim Haftar to establish himsolf as the Chief of Staff of the National Army. Hlaftar, who lived in the United States for many years and is believed by Belhaj and others to have a relationship with the U.S, Government, i using his popularity among the officer corps of the regular NTC army to support his claim to be Chief of Staff. This produced ‘heated protests from militia leaders and in late December 201 ¢l-Keib named deputy Minister of Defense Colonel Yussef al-Mangoush, to be Chief of Staff. In the opinion of one source, this is ‘8 problematic choice, since el-Keib is replacing the supposedly pro-American Haftar with al~ ‘Mangoush who commanded one of Qaddafi’s elite Special Forces units, even after the revolution bbogan. This individual believes that el-Keib's decision was driven by personal animosity toward Haftar, and the influence of Minister of Defense Osama al-Juwali. The situation is far from resolved, 28 Haftar and his supporters, particulary in the Benghazi garrison, continue to claim that the Genera isthe true Chief of Staff. El-Keib and alJuwali are working to reconcile all of the elements in this conflict as quickly as possible, before the supporters of the two claimants begin fighting. In the meantime, el-Keib has stated in private that he fully expects Belhaj to attack al-Mangoush, but the Prime Minister believes that the Colonel is the oaly officer strong enough to disarm the mifitias and avoid a civil war. 6. Atthe same time, a very sensitive source added thet el-Keib and Jalil are attempting to reconcile the fighting between Misratn and Zintan forces ia Tripoli by naming Misrata leader Fawzi Abd Ali as Minister of the Interior and al Juwali, who was commander of the Zintan militia, as Minister of Defense. To date, according to this individual, this effort has met with Timited success, asthe fighting has continued and the militias are refusing to disarm until their demands regarding living standards are met, 7. Source Comment: One very sensitive source noted, tat el-Keib is aware ofthe fact tbat he is running out of time to stabilize the situation in Libya. ‘He believes that if he does not disarm the militias and meet their demands in the next six months there is a good chance of inereaged fighting among rival groups that could lead to civil war. In any event, he realizes that the ongoing instability will cause Westem governments, firms, and banks, to hesitate before commiting themselves to long term relationships with Libya. E-Kelb believes that Belha and “his advisors have made the same judgment, and are waiting to fill any vacuum created by this violence, by establishing a conservative Islamic Republic.) From: H Sent ‘Thursday, January 5, 2012 5:22 PM. To: ‘sbwhoeop Subject: Re: H: latest intel ibyan cont, leaders & militias. id ‘Thanks, as always, and Happy New Year! ‘Subject: H: latest intel Ibyen confics, leaders & militias. Sid CONFIDENTIAL January 5, 2012 From: Sid Re: Libyan leadership and militias SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the ‘highest levels of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services. 1. During the last week of December 2011, and the first week of 2012, Libya's Prime Minister Abdurrabim el-Keib and President Mustafa Abdul Jalil engaged in a series of emergency planning meetings attempting to deal with specific issues threatening the stability of the new National ‘Transitional Council (NTC) Government. According to extremely sensitive sources speaking in strict confidence, paramount among these issues are the questions of disarming and rewarding the regional tilitias who bore the majority of the fighting against the regime of Muammar al Qaddafi, as well as the related issue of finding ministers and senior administrators for the new government who are acceptable to these revolutionary forces. These individuals noted that on four occasions, beginning on December 23, 2011, groups or angry militiamen came to el-Kefb's office and demanded better treatment, a clear message of support for the role of Islamic law, and the removal of former Qaddafi advisors from the new ! 2. (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib is genuinely concerned. thut this situation could spiral out of control and threatens the regime. He also suspects that much of the unrest is being stirred by General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj and his conservative Islamist supporters, By staying out of the new government, Belhaj has established a position from which he can criticize their actions and appointments without concern or control. That said, el - Keib has been told by his contacts in the Maslenj,Brotherhood (MB) that even Belhaj has been surprised that the unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself in fighting between groups that previously shared the same goals and operated under Belhaj's loose command, This is particularly true in the case of the increasingly violent conilicts between the Misrata and Zintan rogional militias.) 3, In an effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new administration, removing Minister of Economics Taher Sherkaz, who, as a former economic advisor to Qaddafi, was a particular target of the militiamen, In the opinion of well informed individuals, el-Keib's closest and most influential advisors are experts with economic backgrounds and experience dealing with Western firms and governments, ‘The most influential of this group are Minister of Oil Abdulrahman Ben Yezza, Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam, National Oil Company chief Nuri Berrusien, and Ngeb Obeda from the Libyan Stock Exchange. ‘4. (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib and Jalil are also very concerned over growing criticism that these technocrats are puppets of various Western governments and firms. Belhaj and the militiamen appear intent on limiting the influence of these Western * entities, using them as a weapon to weaken the el-Keib regime. This trend is also affecting national security, where, despite el-Keib’s efforts to maintain a balance between the Islamists, regional commanders, and the national army, a potentially dangerous conflict has arisen over the position of Chief of Staff of the National Army. El-Kieb, according to this individual, believes that he must settle this matter in short order to vod provoking secur conceras among forte lesan bnsineson contacts, 5. According to a knowledgeable individual, in late December 2011el-Kieb resisted efforts by General Khalifa Belqasim Haftar to establish himself as the Chief of Staff of the National Army. Haftar, who lived in the United States for many years and is believed by Belhaj and others to have a relationship with the U.S. Government, is using his popularity among the officer corps of the regular NTC army to support his claim to be Chief of Staff. This produced heated protests from militia leaders and in late December 2ox1el-Keib named deputy Minister of Defense Colonel Yussef al- +o be Chief of Staff, In the opinion of one source, this is'a problematic choice, since el- Keib is replacing the supposedly pro-American Haftar with al-Mangoush who commanded one of Qaddafi's elite Special Forces units, even after the revolution began. This individual believes that el- Keib’s decision was driven by personal animosity toward Haftar, and the influence of Minister of Defense Osama al-Juwali. The situation is far from resolved, as Haftar and his supporters, particularly in the Benghazi garrison, continue to claim that the General is the true Chief of Staff, El- Keib and al-Juwali are working to reconcile all ofthe elements in this conflict as quickly as possible, before the supporters of the two claimants begin fighting. In the meantime, el-Keth has stated in private that he fully expects Belhaj to attack al-Mangoush, but the Prime Minister believes that the Colonel is the only officer strong enough to disarm the militias and avoid a civil war. 6. At the same time, a very sensitive source added that el-Ketb and Jalil are attempting to reconcile the fighting between Misrata and Zintan forces in Tripoli by naming Misrata leader Fawai Abd Ali as Minister of the Interior and al-Juwali, who was commarider of the Zintan militia, as Minister of Defense. To date, according to this individual, this effort has met with limited success, as ‘the fighting has continued and the militias are refusing to disarm until their demands regarding living standards are met. 7. (Source Comment: One very sensitive source noted, that el-Keib is aware of the fact that he is running out of time to stabilize the situation in Libya. He believes that if he does not disarm the nilitias and meet their demands in the next six months there is a good chance of increased fighting ‘among rival groups that could lead to civil war. In any event, he realizes that the ongoing instability will cause Western governments, firms, and banks, to hesitate before committing themselves to long term relationships with Libya. El-Keib believes that Belhaj and his advisors have made the same judgment, and are waiting to fill any vacuum created by this violence, by establishing a conservative Islamic Republic.) . on ) Thursey EPO? 5:29 PM H + Ret H: latest intl lbyan conflict, leaders & militias. Sid fa Happy new year! Tak when you get a chance... Original Message-— From: H Te: ‘sbwhoeop sbuhoeop\ Sent: Thu, Jan 2 pm Subject Re: lie elfen conf, loeders & tie. Sid ‘Thanks, as always, and Happy New Year! Soe Aa ToH ‘Subject: H: latest intel Kbyan conflicts, leaders & milias, Sid CONFIDENTIAL January §, 2012 For: HRC From: Sid Re: Libyan leadership and militias, SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services. 1. During the last week of December 2011, and the first week of 2012, Libya's Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Keib and President Mustafa Abdul Jalil engaged in a series of emergency planning ‘meetings attempting to deal with specific issues threatening the stability of the new National ‘Transitional Couneil (NTC) Government. According to extremely sensitive sources speaking in strict confidence, paramount among these issues are the questions of disarming and rewarding the regional inflitias who bore the majority of the fighting against the regime of Muammar al Qaddafi, as well as the related issue of finding ministers and senior administrators for the new government who are acceptable to these revolutionary forces. These individuals noted that on four occasions, beginning on December 23, 2011, groups or angry militiamen came to el-Keib’s office and demanded better treatment, a clear message of support for the role of Islamic law, and the removal of former Qaddafi '2. (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Ketb is genuinely concerned that this situation could spiral out of control and threatens the regime. He also suspects that much of the unrest is being stirred by General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj and his conservative Islamist supporters. By staying out of the new government, Belhaj has established a position from which he can criticize their actions and appointments without concern or control. That said, el ~ Keib has been told by his contacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) that even Belhiaj has been surprised that the ‘unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself infighting between groups that previously shared the same goals and operated under Belhaj's loose command. This is particularly true in the ease of the increasingly violent conflicts between the Misrata and Zintan regional militias.) g. Inan effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new administration, removing Minister of Economics Taher Sherkaz, who, as a former economic advisor to Qaddafi, was a particular target of the militiamen. In the opinion of well informed individuals, e-Keib's closest and ost influential advisors are experts with economic backgrounds and experience dealing with Ben Yezza, Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam, National Oil Company chief Nuri Berrusien, and Ngeb Obed from the Libyan Stock Exchange. ‘4, (Source Comment; In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Kefb and Jalil are also very ‘eoncemed over growing criticism that these technocrats are puppets of various Western governments and firms, Belhj and the militiamen appear intent on limiting the influence of these Western. entities, using them as a weapon to weaken the el-Keib regime. This trend is also affecting national security, where, despite el-Keib's efforts to maintain a balance between the Islamists, ‘commanders, and the national army, a potentially dangerous conflict has arisen over the position of Chief of Staff of the National Army. El-Kieb, according to this individual, believes that he must settle this mater in sort ode to avoid provoking sem conesrs among frig sis and bissinesses contacts.) ‘5, According to a knowledgeable individual, in late December 2o11el-Kieb resisted efforts by General Khalifa Belgasim Haftar to establish himself as the Chief of Staff of the National Army. Haftar, who lived in the United States for many years and is believed by Belhaj and others to have a relationship with the U.S. Government, is using his popularity among the officer corps of the regular NTCarmy to support his claim to be Chief of Staff. This produced heated protests from militia leaders and in late December 2011¢l-Keib named deputy Minister of Defense Colonel Yussef al- Mangoush, to be Chief of Staff. In the opinion of one source, this is a problematic choice, since el- Keib is replacing the supposedly pro-American Haftar with al-Mangoush who commanded one of Qaddaf’s elite Special Forces units, even after the revolution began. This individual believes that el- Xeib’s decision was driven by personal animosity toward Haftar, and the influence of Minister of Defense Osama al-Juwali. The situation is far from resolved, as Haftar and his supporters, particularly in the Benghazi garrison, continue to claim that the General is the true Chief of Staff. Il- Keib and al-Juwali are working to reconcile all of the elements in this conflict as quickly as possible, before the supporters of the two claimants begin fighting. In the meantime, el-Keib has stated in private that he fully expects Belhaj to attack al-Mangoush, but the Prime Minister believes that the Colonel is the only officer strong enough to disarm the maiitias and avoid a civil war. 6. At the same time, a very sensitive source added that el-Keib and Jalil are attempting to reconcile the fighting between Misrata and Zintan forees in Tripoli by naming Misrata leader Fawzi ‘Abd Ali as Minister of the Interior and al-Juwali, who was commander of the Ziotan militia, as Minister of Defense. To date, according to this individual, this effort has met with limited success, as the fighting has continued and the militias are refusing to disarm until their demands regarding living standards are met. 7. (Source Comment: One very sensitive source noted, that el-Keib is aware of the fact that he {s running out of time to stabilize the situation in Libya, Fle believes that if he does not disarm the militias and meet their demands in the next six months there is a good chance of increased fighting, among rival groups that could lead to civil war. In any event, he realizes that the ongoing instability vill eause Western governments, firms, and banks, to hesitate before committing theraselves to long term relationships with Libya. El-Keib believes that Belhaj and his advisors have made the same judgment, and are waiting to fill any vacuum created by this violence, by establishing a conservative Islamic Republic.) RE From Sulvan,tacob J Sent: Thursday, january 5, 2012 722 PM Tor H Subject: RE: H: atest intel Rbyan confit, lenders & ritias. Sid Wil do. From: H (matte: ~ ~ rHORZ2@ctintonemal. com] ‘Sant: Thursday, January 05, 2012 5:16 PM ‘Tor Sulivan, Jacob 3 ‘Subject: Fi: H: latest intel Nbyan conflicts, fenders & mites. Sid ‘Worrying. Pls distribute and request feedback from Jef, Crete, et al. from: soto EE nate ‘San Thursday, January 05, 2012 12:26 PM To: ‘Sulzject: H: ltest Intel Ibyan conflicts, eaders & militias. Sid CONFIDENTIAL January 5, 2012 For: HRC From: Sid Re: Libyan leadership and militias SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services, 4. During the last week of December 2011, and the first week of 2012, Libyo’s Prime Minister Abdurrabim el-Keib and President Mustafa Abdul Jalil engaged in a series of emergency planning meetings attempting to deal with specific issues threatening the stability of the new National ‘Transitional Councit (NTC) Government, According to ly sensitive sources speaking in strict confidence, paremount among these issues are the questions of disarming and rewarding the regional rlitias who bore the majority of the fighting against the regime of Muammar al Qaddafi, as well as the related issue of finding ministers and senior administrators for the new government who are acceptable to these revolutionary forces. ‘These individuals noted that on four occasions, beginning on December 23, 2011, groups or angry militiamen came to el-Keib's office and demanded better ‘treatment, aclear message of support for the role of Islamic law, and the removal of former Qaddafi advisors from the new government. 2, (Souree Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib is genuinely concerned that this situation could spiral out of control and threatens the regime. He also suspects that much of the unrest is being stirred by General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj and his conservative Islamist supporters. By staying out of the new government, Belhaj has established a position from which he cancriticize their actions and appointments without concern or control. That said, el ~ Keib has been told by his eontacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) that even Belhaj bas been surprised that the ‘unrest in the militias has to mente itself infighting between group that previously share ‘This is parti in the the same goals and ‘under Belhajs | is true! case of conflicts between the Misrata and Zintan 3 ‘In an effort to address these problems el-Keib is making changes in his new administration, ‘economic| experience Western firms and governments. The most influential of this group are Minister of Oil Ben Yezza, Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam, National Oil Company ehlef Nuri Berrusien, and Ngeb Obeda from the Lityan Stock Exchange. “4. (Source Comment: In the opinten of a very sensitive source, el-Kelb and Jalil are also very concerned over growing criticism that these technoeras are puppets ot vio hese We governments and firms, Belhaj and the militiamen appear intent on | the influence of these Western ‘entities, using them as a weapon to ‘the el-Keib regime, ‘This trend is also affecting national secu, where, depite Keb efforts to maintain a elas betwen contacts.) 3. According to a knowledgeable individual, in late December 2011¢1-Kieb resisted efforts by General Khalifa Belgasim Haftar to establish himself as the Chief of Staff of the National ‘Army. Haftar, who lived in the United States for many years and is believed by Belhaj and others to have a relationship with the U.8. Government, is using his ‘among the officer corps of the regular NTC army to support his claim to be Chief of Staf. This produced heated protests from militia leaders and in late December 2011el-Keib named deputy Minister of Defense Colonel Yussef al- ‘Mangoush, to be Chief of Staff. In the opinion of one souree, this is a problematic choice, since el- Keib is replacing the supposedly pro-American Haftar with al-Mangoush who commanded one of Qaddafi's elite Special Forces units, even after the revolution began. This individual believes that el- Keil's decision was driven by personal animosity toward Haftar, andthe influence of Min ister of before the supporters of the two claimants begin fighting. In the meantime, el-Keib has stated in private that he fully expets Bela) to attack al-Mangous, but the Prime Minster belleves thatthe Colonel is the only officer strong enough to disarm the militias and avoid a civil war. 6. At the same time, a very sensitive source added that el-Keib and Jalil are attempting to reconcile the fighting between Misrata and Zintan forces in Tripoli by naming Misrata leader Fawzi ‘Abd Ali as Minister of the Interior and al-Juwali, who was commander of the Zintan militia, as Minister of Defense. To date, according to this individual, this effort has met with limited success, as the fighting has continued and the militias are refusing to disarm until their demands regarding living ‘are met, 7, (Source Comment: One very sensitive source noted, that el-Keib is aware of the fact that he is running out of time to stabilize the situation in Libya. He believes that if he does not disarm the iilitias and meet their demands in the next six months there is a good chance of increased fighting among rival groups that could lead to civil war. In ay ore ha elias thn ho ong ints will cause Western governments, firms, and banks, to hesitate before themselves to {erm reltionsipe vith Libs, te ikl ie tt Ba ender he mde cane j ed ae wing ley econ ened hy ht violence, by establishing a conservative un a From: Sullivan, Jacob J Sent: Friday, January 6 2012 225 PM To: H Subject: FW: HRC fiend ™ ‘From: Feltman, Jeffrey D ‘Sent: Friday, January 06, 2012 1:55 AM ‘To: Sullivan, Jacob J; Cretz, Gene A ‘Cer Bums, Willer 3 Subject: Raz HAC frend [i have to defer to Gene on this. t's 2 fascinating read, and some stuff mentioned has already happened (such as the ‘appointment of luwall as Minister of Defense —Juwall is clase to the UAE, Incidentally}. But simply do not know the Ins and outsof the new Libyan politic in suficent detail to give a view as to the accuracy ofthis report. A few bits seemed off key (ey the reference that both the Misrata and Zitan Brigades once reported "loosely" to BelHa} | don't believe Is true, since Juwalll and the UAE supported the later and Qatar the former). ‘The comment about Belha| staying out of gov't and thus retain the flexibility to carp and make trouble: Jake, you may remember that AbZ warned exactly of that danger in that weird mtg Qatar Insisted upon on the margins of UNGA, Gene? Jeffrey Feltman From: Sullven, Jacob 2 ‘Sent: Thursday, January 05, 2012 07:25 PM ‘Yo: Fetman, Jefirey D; Cretz, Gene A (Ce: Burs, Willem 3 Subject: HRC friend ‘Another frend of HAC’s offers the following assassment/report from a source. HRC Interested In your views. SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Counell, os well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services. 1. During the last week of December 2011, and the first week of 2012, Libya's Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Keib and President Mustafa Abdul Jalil engaged ir a series of emergency planning meetings ‘attempting to deal with specific issues threatening the stability of the ‘new National Transitional Council (NTC) Government, According to extremely sensitive sources ding in strict confidence, paramount among these issues are the questions of disarming and rewarding the regior ‘militias who bore the majority of the fighting against the regime of Muarnmar al Qaddafi, as well as the related issue of finding ministers and senior administrators for the new government who are acceptable to these revolutionary forces, These individuals noted that on four occasions, beginning an December 23, 2011, groups or angry militiamen came to el-Keib’s office and demanded better treatment, a clear message ‘of support for the role of Islamic law, and the removal of former Qaddafi advisors from the new government. 2. (Source Comment: ‘In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib is genuinely concerned that this situation could spiral out of control and threatens the regime, He also suspeets that much of the unrest is being stirred by General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj ‘and his conservative Islamist supporters. By staying out of the new government, Belhaj has established a position from which he can criticize their actions and appointments ‘without concerner control. That said, et - Keib has been told by his contacts in the Moslem Brotherhood (MB) ‘that even Belhaj has been suxpriged that the unrest in the militias has begun to manifest itself n fighting between groups that previously shared the same goals and operated under Belhaj's loose command. This particularly true in the ease of the increasingly violent conflicts between the Misrata and Zintan regional 'g, In an effort to address these problems el-Kelb is making changes in his new administration, removing Minister of Keonomies Taher Sherkaz, who, as 2 former economic advisor to Qaddati, was a particular target of the militiamen. In the opinion of well informed individuals, el-Keib’s closest and most influential advisors are experts vith egmomicbackoude an erence ding wih Wester a a ‘The most i of this group are Minister of Ofl Abdulrahman Ben Yezza, Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam, ‘National Oil Company chief Nuri Berrusien, and Ngeb Obeda from the Libyan Stock Exchange. “4. (Source Comment: In the opinion of a very sensitive source, el-Keib and Jalil are also very concerned over; cztnm that thos technocrats are puppet of various Western governments and firms. Belhaj tid the mallfamen appen Intent on limiting the ‘of these Western entities, using them as a weapon to ‘weaken the el-Kelb regime, This trend fs also affecting national security, where, despite el-Keib's efforts to maintain a balance between the Islamists, regional commanders, and the national army, a potentially Sent: Monday, January 9,2012 12:37 PM To: H Subject: FW: HRC friend FV atest. Prom: Cretz, Gene A ‘Sent: Monday, Jenuary 09, 2012 10:10 AM ‘Tot Fekman, Jeffrey D; Suftvan, Jacob 3 ‘Subjects RE: WRC fiend {of hanks tr reminding me. The A-Keeb government is clearly facing many crises, the major one being the Inabilty 20 {arto implement what appesred to be ‘ery detalled plans by Minister of Intcior Fauz! and Minister of Defense Juwall i Incorporate 25k thuwar each (‘ial 76k) Into the secur forces, armed forces and into the private sector (obe, training . ‘education the ma obstacies appear to be inabifty to Implement plane by any of the GOL ministers go far and tack of funds aktnough we hope there willbe @ solution to that soon. Also, none of the militias appears wiling to budge without ‘seeing some proot that ethers are also wiling to do 80, {lam not sure about HRC contact axcribing these problems mainly to Bel-Hef, whose star we belleved had falen over the Past several weeks. The Islamists are demanding their share ofthe poltica pe ike everyone elee-no mere and no lesa, | met with Libyan contact yesterday who had just met with an lelarniet-ed mitiaman from Zintan. The leader ofthis group ‘demanded that women's role be inscribed In the conabttion «is per Sharla thet dd not happen this guy threatened to ‘ake up erma again. Saride-the new bul now deposed Economy Minister ts an example of the power ofthe street andl different voless clamoring for different things. He was a lechnocrat whom we deat with in the past but because ofthe perception that he was “part of the of regime" he had to go even though al-Keeb ragretisd the decision slnce Sarkis was {an able technacrat. So, the bottom line is that the disarming and reintegration of the mifas fe not going as well as we cut ae ed Rough te rir of tari Ba rang fF acme wh OG Moe oy at things on that score were going "wel." ray iat Tripod Local Council repe told us today’ facogunregtrng ver Gtrmine whic fos ponable categorie toy cul ram mo. Arter since replacing the supposedly pro-American Haftar |-Mangoush who ‘commanded one of Qaddafi's elite Special Forces units, even after the revolution began. ‘This individual balioves that el-Kelts decison was driven by prgonl animosity toward Hafar, and the infucace of Miniter cof Defense Osama al-Juwali. The situation is far from resolved, as Haftar and his supporters, particularly in the Benghazi garrlgon, continue to claim that the General isthe true Chief of Staff. E-Keib and al-Jawall are ‘working to reconcile all of the elements in this conflict as quickly as possible, before the supporters of the two claimants begin fighting, In the meantime, el-Kelb has stated in private that he fully expects Belbaj to attack ‘al-Mangoush, but the Prime Minister believes that the Colonel isthe only officer strong enough to disarm the militias and avoid a civil war. 6, At the same tine, a very sensitive source added that el-Kefb and Jalil are attempting to reconcile the fighting between Misrata and Zintan forces in Tripoll by naming Miarata leader Fawal Abd All as Minister of ‘the Interior and al-Juwall, who was commander of the Zintan militia, as Minister of Defense. To date, according to this individual, this effort has met with limited success, a the fighting has continued and the rlitias are; to disarm until their demands regarding living standards are met. 7. (Source t: One very sensitive source noted, that el-Kaib is aware ofthe fact that he is running out of time to stabilize the situation in Libya. He believes that if he does not disarm the militias and ‘meet their demands in the next six months there is « good chance of increased fighting among rival groupe that ‘could lead to civil war. In any event, he realizes that the ongoing instability will cause Western governments, firms, and banks, to hesitate before committing themselves to long term relationships with Libya, El-Keib believes that Bethaj and his advisors heve made the eame judgment, and are waiting to fll any vacuum created by this violence, by establishing a conservative Islamic Republic.) From: H chrod17@dlintonemail.com> Sent: Thursday, January 12, 2012 3:41 PM To: Subject: Fc HRC frend Pls print. From: Sullven, Jacob [mallto‘Sullvent3@state.gov] Sent: Monday, Jammy 09, 2012 12:96 PM Subject: FH: HRC fend Fi fatest, Prom: Cretz, Gene A ‘Sent: Monday, January 09, 2012 10:10 AM ‘To: Feltman, Jeffrey 0; Sullivan, Jacob 3 ‘Subject: RE: HRC fHend Jef thanks for reminding me. The AFKseb government Is clearty facing many crises, the major one being the inabity so far to engloment what appeared to be fety detalld plans by Minister of interior Feu! and Minlster of Defense Juwal to {ncomporate 25k thuwar each (otal 75k) into the security foros, armed forces and ino the private sector Gobs, training . education), the main obstacles appear to be inability to implement plans by any of the GOL ministers 80 far and lack of funds although we hope there wil be @ solution to that soon. Also, none of the miftias appears willing to budge without seeing some proof that others are also wing to do so. |1am not sure about HRC contac ascribing these problems mainly to Bel-Hl, whose star we belloved had fallen over the ; past soveral weeks. The Islamists are demanding thelr share of the polticel ple Ike everyone elso-no more and no lss. met with a Libyan contact yesterday who had jst met wih an Islamist-ied miftaman from Zhntan. The leader of ths group demanded that women's role be Inseribed in the consthulion as per Shari that cd not happen this guy threatened to take up arms again, Sarkis-the new but now deposed Economy Ministers an example ofthe power ofthe street and Sent: ‘Monday January 23, 2012 141 PM To: ‘sullivan @state-gov: Subject: Fac H:V good intel internal Libya. Sid ‘Attachments: thre memo loya interval strife 012312.docx Fy, as usual ditribute as you determine. fo: H CONFIDENTIAL January 23, 2012 For HRC From: Sid Re: Libya intemal strife ‘SOURCE: sourove wih crc acess tothe Libyan NatonalTrarsilonal Counc, as well asthe highest vel of Enropesn Governments, and Westem inteligence and securty services. Zempator equement and NTC fies, These demonstrators, somo of wom throw Molotov cocktails atthe NTC cote rs bulsig, contnae to demand beter medical care, Jobs, paymon for tho He in the revolutionary army, and reattnment to transparency on the part of the ebKelb regime; particulary the ‘appointment of cabinet members and ficial. According to this source, when ol-Kelb roped, pointing ou thet demonstrators wor ‘camped outside of his ‘oftce in Tipol. He added thal the government had to proceed in a measured and ‘professional manner, Jall stated in ‘angry tones, that NTC staffers wore beater January 24 incidert, pointing out that ‘his fs how the rebetton against Muammar |. dal also warned thet islamst laador oe el fam Nain Beha) and his supporters, parulaty milla commancers rom eta ‘Misrata, and other eer en are arousty waking "tho NTO government io coke. Thole goal the opm of this individual, Is to evortualy move In and establish a stot Istamic state. ‘Jail, added that hs contacts in the Egyptian Mustim ‘Sromerhood had been In touch during the preceding week, warning thatthe throat from Botha} Is very real. EL-Kelb stated Brother ha tar of Defense Czar el-Jawal an intro Minor Faw Abd Alto be pore, eS eohinistrng thet postions. According to this ingiidual Kei fears tht al Jawall, wn was © western commander sit the vation, may be malhfaning & secret roltionship with Botha and his ales. tn response, ‘Jalll warned eb-Keib {o avoid trying fo use the rogular itary forces posted eround Benghaz\ under General Khalita Betyasim Haftar in an ‘offer to restrain the former milla troops as such a slap could lead to cM war. '. (Gourco Comment: inthe opinion of an extremely well placed Individual, el-Kelb sn fact, Inoreasingty {rustrated by the inefficiency In his regime and the inablity of his ministers and administrators to arrange contracts with foreign fms. He complains thet his principal adsors, Minister of Ol Abdulrahman Ben Yezza and Minister of Finance Hessan Ziglam, have been too timid in resolng the questions associated with contracs invaling foreign fms, both okt ‘and new. At present it appears thet whenever one offal raises a queston regarding an agreement the entre mater is pon hokd and delayed, In the opinion of his source, @Helb knows that whhout these agreements he cannot meet the demands of the veterans and the students. EFKeb slated in confidence, that he may have made a serfous mistake in ‘removing the former ollfinance minister Ali Tartioun from the government. E-Kelb also noted that Jal shaken by the January 21 attack on NTC headquarters and Is searching for ways to appease the demonstrators, Most recently he ‘asked Abdel Hatidh Ghoza, his principal deputy and NTC spokesman to step down. Ghaza, wito comes from the ‘Benghazi area, was particulary unpopular wih the westem troops.) 4. Fofowing the discussion with Jali, obKieb ordered Ziglam and Ngeb Obeda, the head of the Stock Exchange, ‘0 move wih all possible speed to ackiress the issue ofthe foreign contacts end arrange for new vendors to provide the seroes demanded by the veterans and students. In this discussion he pointed out that they cannot deal wth this _stuation they wif not fave to worry about the national elections in 2012, Libya wil be anIslamko Republi, wih Belha) as the ruler, EFKelb pointed out that foreign govermmonts and large oll kms must be aware of tis threat and that this wit ‘fighian them into meeting the conditions for foreign contracts set out by the NTC. '5. (Bouroe Comment: According to an exiremely sensitive source, e-Kelb spoke secretly wih Haftar, stating that hn, and those troops loyal o him, should be prepared to move to protect the goverment inthe event of Increased ‘lolonce. ‘This effort could include moving against Bela] and etiacking mits forces before they cen unde and organize. EL.Kelb emphasized that this is for planing purposes only, and no scion shoukd be taken until e-Kelb gives the order. Ho emphasized that he vl do everything possible to avok! cl war, bute bs now concerned that Jal willbe unable to eal withthe Jevel of hostity against the NTC, and cannot be counted on to take strong positions against Bethe) and his ‘supporters. inthe opinion ofthis ind igual, e-Kelb cannot back away from his commitment to technictans fa senior positions, but he wil press them as hard as he can to have the government respond tothe needs ofthe veterans and students. EFKelb believes it snot too late to address these problems, but they must move quick’) CONFIDENTIAL, Janvary 23, 2012 SOURCE: Sources with direct aocess tothe Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levela of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services. 1. On the evening of January 22, 2012, according to an official with access to the Icaderthip of the National Transitional Government (NTC), Libyan President Mustafa Abdul Jalil spoke a length with Prime Ministor Abdurrahim el-Keib, stating ine heated exchange thst ‘d-Kelb’s goverment must tke the steps necessary to address the complaints ofthe demobilized fighters from the 201 evolution, Jai pointed out thatthe new government has been discussing this situation since it was formed in October 2011, and matters have now reached a crisis point, with a group of more than 2,000 disgruntled veterans, supported by students, attacking ke NTC “offices in Benghazi on January 21, destroying computer equipment and NTC files. These demonstrators, some of whom threw Molotov cocktails atthe NTC headquacters building, continue to demand better medical care, jobs, payment for their time in the revolutionary army, fand a commitment o transparency on the part of the el-Keib regime; particularly the appointment of cabinet members and senior officials. 2, According to this source, when el-Keib replied, pointing out that demonstrators were ‘camped outside of his office in Tripoli. He added thatthe government ad to proceed in & tneavured and professional manner, Jalil stated in angry tones, that NTC staffers were beaten and vould have been Killed during the January 21 incident, pointing out that this is how the rebellion ‘against Muammar el Qaddafi bogan in February 2011. Jalil also warned that Islamist leader General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belha) and his supporters, particularly militia commanders from Zintan, Miscata, and other western regions, ae anxiously waiting for the NTC government to ‘ollapee, Their goal, in the opinion of this individual, isto eventually movein and establish a Sitit Islamic state. Jali, edded that his contacts in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhiood had been fn touch during the preceding week, warning tat the threat from Belhajis very real. El-Kelb stated that he must press Minister of Defense Osama al-Juwali and Interior Minister Fawzi Abd ‘Ali tobe more efficient in administering their positions. According to this individual, el-Keib fears that al-Juwali, who was a western commander during the revolution, may be maintaining ‘scoret relationship with Bolhaj and his allies. In response, Jalil wamed el-Keib to avoid trying to ‘use the regular military forces posted around Benghazi under General Khalifa Belgasim Haftar in an effort to restrain the former militia troops as such a step coutd lead to civil war. 3. (Source Comment; In the opinion of an extremely well placed individual, el-Keib is, in fat, increasingly frustrated by the inefficiency in his regime and the inability of his ministers and administrators to arrange contracts with foreign firms. He complains that bis principal advisors, Minister of Oil Abdulrahman Ben Yezza and Minister of Finance Hassan Zigfam, have ‘been too timid in resolving the questions associated with contracts involving foreign firms, both ‘old end new, At present it appears that whenever one official raises « question regarding an agreement the entire matter is put on hold and delayed. Jn the opinion of this source, e-Kelb knows that without these agreements he cannot meet the demands of the veterans and the students, El-Keib stated in confidence, that he may have made a serious mistake in removing the former oil/finance minister Ali Tarhouni from the government. EL-Keib also noted that Jalil is shaken by the January 21 attack on NTC headquarters and is searching for ways to appease the demonstrators. Most recently he asked Abdel ~ Hafidh Ghoza, his principal deputy end NTC spokesman to step dawn, Ghoza, who comes from the Benghazi area, was particularly ‘unpopular with the western troops.) 4, Following the discussion with Jalil, e-Kieb ordered Ziglam and Ngeb Obede, the head of the Stock Exchange, to move with all possible speed to address the issue of the foreign contracts and arrange for new vendors to provide the services demanded by the veterans and students, In this discussion he pointed out that if they cannot deal with this situation they will ‘not have to worry about the national elections in 2012, Libya will be an Islamic Republic, with Belhaj as the ruler, El-Keib pointed out that foreign governments and large il firms must be aware of this threat and that this will frighten them into meeting the conditions for foreign contracts set out by the NTC. 5, (Source Comment; According to an extremely seusitive source, el-Keib spoke seoretly with Hafar, stating that he, and those troops loyal to him, should be prepared to move to ‘protect the government in the event of increased violence. ‘This effort could include moving, against Belhaj and attacking militia forces before they can unite and organize. El-Keib emphasized that this is for planning purposes only, and no action should be taken until el-Keib gives the order, He emphasized that he will do ‘everything possible to avoid civil war, but he is ‘pow concerned that Jalil will be unable to deal with the level of hostility against the NTC, and ‘cannot be counted on to take strong positions against Belhaj and his supporters. In the opinion of this individual, e!-Keib cannot back away from his commitment to technicians ia senior ‘positions, but he will press them as hard as he can to have the government respond to the needs of the veterans and students, EL-Keib belioves it s not too late to address those problems, but they must move quickly.) Sullvan Jacob J ‘Monday, January 23, 2012 7:23 PM 4 RE; H:V good inte internal Libya Sid yu ‘Will do, as with the other. rom: H [malto:HORZ2@cHntoneral.com) ‘Sent: Monday, January 23, 2012 1:41 PM ‘To: Sullvan, Jeenb 3 (Subject: Fi: H: V good Inte Internal Libya. Sid yi, as usual distribute as you determine. From: stwhoeop Gi ‘Sent: Monday, Janwary 23, 2012 12:11 PM To ‘Subject: H: V good inal internal Libya, Sid CONFIDENTIAL Sarwary 23, 2012 For, HRC From: Sid Re: Ubye internal ste SOURCE: Sources with direct aocess to the Libyan Nations! Treneidonsl Council, as well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Western inteligence and security services. 4, Onthe evening of January 22, 2012, according to an official with access to the leadership ofthe National “Transtional Govemment (NTC), Lnyan President Mustafa Abdu! Jal spoke at engih with Prime Minister Abdurrahim et Keb, stating in a heated exchange that el-Kelb's government must take the stops necessary to address the complaints of the demobiized fighters from the 201 irevolulon all pointed cut that the new government has been discussing this situation eince It was formed in October 2011, and matters have now reached a crisis point, with a group of more than 2,000 disgrunted veterans, supporied by students, attacking the NTC offices in Banghazi on January 21, destroying ‘computor equipment and NTC files. These demonstrators, some of whom threw Molotov cocktails at the NTC headquarters bull, continue to demand better mecical care, jobs, payment fr their ima in the revohfionary army, and Acoramnant a trantpareny nthe pot of tho Koi rege; arcu the applment of ebet members ond senior oficial, 2. Acoording to this source, when eb-Keibrepled, pointing out that demonstrtore were camped outside of tis ‘office in Tripol. He added that the government had to proceed in @ mesured and professional manner, Jal stated in ‘angry tones, that NTC stafirs were beaten and could have been kiled during the January 21 incident, pointing out that {hiss how the rebalion against Muammar al Qaddafi began In February 2071. Jal also warned that Islamist leader ‘Goneral Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj and his supporters, particulary mitia commanders from Zintan, Misrata, and other ‘westem regions, are anxiously wating forthe NTC goverment to collapee. Their goal, In the opinion of this individual, 16 Joeventualy move In and establsh a svct Islamic state. Jail, added that his contacts inthe Egyptian Muslim [Brotherhood had bean in touch during the preceding week, warning that the threat from Belha) ib very real. EHeib stated thal he must prose Minister of Defense Osama al-Juwall ad Interior Minister Faw Abd Alito be more efficient in ‘edministering thelr postions. Accorcing to this indvidua,o|-Kelb fears that ebJuwall, who was a wester commander ‘during the revolution, may be maintaining a secret relationship wit Benj and his alles. In response, Jalll warned e-Kalb {0 evOd trying to use the regular mftay forces posted sround Benghaz\ under Generel Khalifa Belgasim Hatter in an effort to restrain the former milla troops as such a stp could lead fo cv wer, "3, (Bourve Comment. In the opinion of an extremely well placed individual, e-Kelbi, infact, increesingly frustrated by the Inefilenoy in hie regime and the inability of hie ministers and administrators to arrange contracts with foreign firme, He complains thet his principal advisors, Minater of Oil Abdurahman Ben Yezza and Miniater of Finance Hasean Ziglem, have been too timid in resolving the questions wasociated wih coniraca Involving foreign fms, both old ‘and new, At present k appears tat whenever one offcla| raises a question regarding an agreement the entire matter Is Uton hold and daleyed. In the opinion of tis source, @-Kelb knows that witout these agreements he eannot meet the Semands ofthe veterane and te sludents, EI-Kalb sated in confidence, that he may have made a serious mistake In emoving the former olfinance minister Ali Tarhoun! from the government. ErXeib also noted that Jail ie shaken by the January 21 stteck on NTC headquarters and ie for ways to appease the demonstrators. Most recently he ‘asked Abdel ~ Hafidh Ghoza, hie principal deputy and NTC spokeemen to step down. Ghoza, who comas from the ‘Benghazi area, wee pericuarty unpopular wih the western troops.) 14. Fellowing the dlecusslon wth Jal, abKieb ordered Zigam and Ngeb Obed, the head of the Stock Exchange, to move with al posible speed to adress the issue o the foreign contracis and arrange for new vendors to prove the ‘Fervices demanded by the veterans and students. In this discussion he pointed out that they cannot deal wit this ‘Etuation they wil not have fo worry about the national elections in 2012, Libya wl be an Islamic Republe, with Belhal ws the ruler. ELXelb pointed out hat foreign govemments and large ol frre must be aware ofthis threat and Yhat thie wil {righten them into meeting the conditions for foreign contracts set out by the NT. '6. (Source Comment: According to an extremely sensitive source, e+Kelb spoke secretly with Haftar, stating that ‘he, and those troope loyal to him, shoukd be prepared to mave to protect the govamment nthe event of increased ‘Violence. ‘This effort could Include moving against Belvaj anc attacking mit forces before they can unite and ‘rpanize, El-Keib emphasized that tia i for planning purposes oniy, and no action ahoukd be taken untl ebKei> gives the order. He emphasized that he wil do everything possible to avold civil war, but ha is now concerned that Jail will De ‘urbe to deal withthe level of hostlity against the NF, and cannot be counted onto take strong postions against Beths| ‘2nd his supporters, inthe opinion of this individual, el-Kelb cannot back away from his commitment to technicians in ‘senior postions, but he will preea them as hard as he oan to have the government respond to the needs of the veterans tnd etudents.ELKeib believes itis not too tale to address these problems, but they must move quickly.) ee From: H chrod17@clintonemail.com> Sent: ‘Monday, January 23, 2012 9:17 PM te — Subject: fw, H:V good intel internal Libya. Sid ‘Attachments: ‘htc memo libya internal strife 012312.doo rapt sbwhoeop Gamma 2 y, January 23, 2012 12:11 PM ‘good Intel internal Libya, Sid CONFIDENTIAL, January 23, 2012 For HRC From: Sid Rez Libya internal ste the highest levels of SOURCE: Sources with dlrect access tothe Jbyan National Transktonst Councl, ws well European Goverments, and Westem Inteligence and securty services, scoording to an oficial with access to the leadership ofthe National ‘ustata Abdul Jal spoke at length with Prime Minister Abdurrahin ef Jovernment ust take the stops necessary to address the complaints of ‘te new government has been discussing this ached a crsk point, with a group of more than vtlacking the NTC offices in Benghazi on January 21, destroying ‘whom threw Molotov cocktals atthe NTC "or thelr ime in the revolutionary army, and ticularly the appointment of cabinet members and pointing out that demonstrators were camped outside of his rofessional manner, Jal stated in ery 21 inckient, pointing out that also warned that isiamist leader ticularly mifia contmanders from Zintan, Misrate, and other font to cotiapse. helt goal, In the opinion ofthis individual, is tacts in the Egyptian Muslin: ‘threat from Betha] Is very real. El-Keib stated aera es| prose Minstor of Dofense Osama al-uwall and Inter Minstr Faw Abd Alto be Wore efficent in aan cterng tek postlons. According to his individual, o-Kol fears that a-Juwal, wha was 2 wesley ‘commence ‘uring the revolution, may be maintaining a secret olllonship wth Botha and his aes. In sponse, ‘alll warned el-Kelb to avoid tying to use the regular miltary foroes posted around Benghaz! under General Khaltfa Belqasim Heftar n an cffot fo restrain the former miltla troops as such a step could lad to cll war. 3, (Gouroe Comment: In the apinion of an extremely wel placed Indhidual, ebKelb is, in fact, increasingly frustrated by the Ineficienoy fn his regime and the inabity of his ministers and administrators to arrange contracts with foreign fims. He complans that his principal advisors, Minister of O1 Abduleahman Ben Yezza and Mbister of Finance: Hassan Ziglam, have been too timid in resolving the questions associated with contracts Involving foreign fms, both okt nd now, AL presen’ appoars tat whenever one ofl ros qustonrogarng an agreement he ere matt puton hold and delayed. In the opinion of this source, el-Kelb knows that without these agreements he cannot meet the ‘demands of the veterans and the students. EFKelb stated in confidence, that he may have made a serious mistake In removing the former ollfinance minister Ali Tarhoun! from the government. EHKeib also noted that Jal is shaken by the January 21 attack on NTC headquarters and is searching for way to appease the demonstrators, Most recontly he ‘asked Abdel — Hafidh Ghoza, his principal deputy and NTC spokesman ta step dawn. Ghoza, who comes from the Benghaz| area, wes particularly unpopular wih the western troops) ‘4. Following the discussion with Jail, e+Kleb ordered Ziglam and Ngeb Obeda, the head of the Stock Exchange, to move with afl possible speed to acdraes the issue ofthe foreign contracts and arrange for new vendors to provide the ‘vervioes demanded by the vetorans and students. In this discussion he pointed out that If they cannot deal with this ‘stuatlon they wll not have to worry about the national elections in 2012, Libya willbe an Istamic Repubile, with Botha] as the ruler. E}Xelb pointed out that foreign govemments and large ol fms must be aware of tis throat and that this will {tighten them Into mosting the conditions for foreign contracts set out by the NTC. '8, (Gource Comment: According to-an extremely senstive source, eb Kolb spoke seoretty wih Hater, stating that ‘he, and those troops loyal to him, should be prepared to move to protect the government inthe event of increased violence. This effort could Indude moving against Bela) and attacking mit forces before they oan unite and organize. EH(olb emphasized that this is for planning purposes only, and no action should be taken until Ketb gives the order. He emphasized that he will do everything possible to avoid cll war, but he Is now concemed that Jaft wil be tnable to ‘deal wit the level of hostity against the NTC, and cannot be counted on to take strong postions against Belha) and his nthe opinion ofthis Indhdual, e-Kelb cannot back away from his commitment to technicians in senior poskions, but he will press them as hard as ho can to have the govemment respond to the needs of the veterans and students.’ EKem Its not too late to address these problems, but they must move quickly.) CONFIDENTIAL January 23; 2012 From: Sid Re: Libya intemal strife SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services, 1. On the evening of January 22, 2012, according to an official with access to the leadership of the National Transitional Government (NTC), Libyan President Mustafa Abdul Jalil spoke at length with Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Kcib, stating in a heated exchange that ‘el-Keib’s government rust take the steps necessary to address the complaints of the demobilized fighters from the 201 revolution. Jalil pointed out that the new government has been discussing this situation since it was formed in October 2011, and matters have now reached 2 crisis point, «with a group of more than 2,000 disgruntled veterans, supported by students, attacking the NTC office in Benghazi on January 21, destroying computer equipment and NTC files. These demonstrators, some of whom threw Molotov cocktails at the NTC headquarters building, ‘continue to demand better medicel care, jobs, payment for their time in the revolutionary army, and a commitment to transparency on the part of the el-Keib regime; particularly the appointment of cabinet members and senior officials. 2. According to this source, when el-Keib replied, pointing out that demonstrators were camped outside of his office in Tripoli. He added that the government had to proceed in a measured and professional manner, all stated in angry tones, that NTC staffers were beaten and could have been killed ducing the January 21 incident, pointing out that this is how the rebellion against Muammar al Qaddafi began in February 2011. Jalil elso warmed that Islamist leader General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj and his supporters, particularly militia commanders from Zintan, Misrata, and other western regions, are anxiously waiting for the NTC government to collapse, Their goal, in the opinion ofthis individual, is to eventually move in and establish m strict Islamic state, Jalil, added that his contacts in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood hed been in touch during the preceding week, warning that the threat from Belhaj is very real. El-Keib stated that he must press Minister of Defense Osama al-Juwali and Interior Minister Fawai Abd ‘Alito be more efficient in administering their positions. According to this individual, e-Keib fears that el-Fuwali, who was a westem commander during the revolution, may be maintaining & seoret relationship with Belhaj and his allies. In response, Jalil warned el-Keib to avoid trying to tse the regular military forces posted around Benghazi under General Khalifa Belqasim Haftarin ‘an effort to restrain the Former militia troops as such a step could lead to civil war. 3. (Source Comment: In the opinion of an extremely well placed individuil, e-Keib is, in fact, increasingly frustrated by the inefficiency in his regime and the inability of his ministers and adainistrators to arrange contracts with foreign firms. He complains that his principal advisors, Minister of Oil Abulrahman Ben Yezze and Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam, have ‘been too timid in resolving the questions associated with contracts involving foreign firms, both cold and new. At present it appears that whenever one official raises a question regarding an agreement the entire matter is put on hold and delayed. In the opinion ofthis source, l-Keib ‘knows that without these agreements he cannot mest the demands of the veterans and the students, El-Keib stated in confidence, that he may have made a serious mistake in removing the former cilfinance minister Ali Tachouni from the government. El-Keib also noted that Jalil is shaken by the January 21 attack on NTC headquarters and is searching for ways to appease the demonstratore, Most recently he asked Abdel - Hiafidh Ghoza, his principal deputy and NTC spokesman to step down, Ghoza, who comes from the Benghezi arce, was particularly ‘unpopular with the western troops.) 4, Following the discussion with Jalil, el-Kieb ordered Ziglam and Ngeb Obeds, the head of the Stock Exchange, 10 move with all possible speed to address the issue of the foreign contracts and arrange for new vendors to provide the services demanded by the veterans and students. In this discussion he pointed out that if they cannot deal with this situation they will not have to worry about the national elections in 2012, Libya will be an Islamic Republic, with ‘Belhaj asthe ruler, El-Kelb pointed out that foreign governments and large oi firms must be ware of this threat and that this will frighten them into meeting the conditions for foreign contracts set out by the NTC. 5, (Source Comment: According to an extremely sensitive source, el-Keib spoke secretly with Haftar, stating that he, and those troops loyal to him, should be prepared to move to protect the government in the event of increased violence, This effort could include moving ‘against Belhaj and attacking militia forces before they can unite and organize. El-Keib ‘emphasized that this is for planning purposes only, and no action should be taken until el-Keib gives the order. He emphe ‘that he will do everything possible to avoid civil war, but he is now concemed that Jalil will be unable to deal with the level of hostility against the NTC, and cannot be counted on to take strong positions against Belhaj and his supporters. In the opinion of this individual, el-Keib cannot back away from his ‘commitment te technicians in senior positions, but he will press them as hard as he cam to have the government respond to the needs of the veterans and students. El-Keib believes itis not too late to address these problems, but they must mave quicily.) From: Sullivan, Jacob J Sent: ‘Tuesday, January 24, 2012 1:00PM 4 Subject: FW: Libya From: Cretz, Gene A Sent Tuesday, Jonuary 24, 2012 2:58 AM ‘Tot Sullvan, Jacob ; Feltmn, Jefrey D ‘Subject: RE; Libya Info | think that the evente in Banghaz! really shook Jatl and he of course would place on the blame on the aleab at kie'a bt delgenuous for Jail, who has been intrerng n the al-Xaob governments business since day Fo pte todo-o, 1 fink hat he does not bear some responabilty we well The Banghazl protestors appear! to's pastiche of ferent groups of isffeced people includng war-wounded, martyrs files, ransparency so pee Priabitty demerdeure, and those who belive te east ie once again belng negiaciad. So the source of thie report ‘ieoulng the whole thing to war-wounded dows note, although they may have bean the ones who caried Out Fee ed e.,The Boba bopeymen isa Di overplayed-no doubt his milary intuence has waned but he does remain weieyor-one of many ooking to make polca gan in this ew environment. The proposition that he is jst ving in ‘taltng to take advariage ofthe curent stably to move In and establish an Ila sate eppears 8 it repcurated. Mister of Labor aban (who Mas his owe axes to ring) aa there ie now a group of sx mister (nea eee whether this fs wth al-Keeb's kroweldge or not) whi are serving as the "cohones” ofthe cabinet and taking ae peter vont. akKeeb ia proceding cautously (hat ls his strength and weakness) and thats the problem. eo eatly the tre Yor a “warms cabinet notte cautious approach he appears tobe taking does not aul this vole Pre [ett see uml the meeting today between the NTC and the government produces-the benghaz! protests, the Ban inka Confer and the verious other incicents tat have fared up in recent days point to the need for some real rast, Via coe te DDR process and inthe other issues that engender current dissatisfaction among the popuiace, | can't Tealy comment on the points regarcing foreign contacts except o say it rngs tue given the current governments reluctance to make any signiiant fe eepedaly regarding pastor future sues of money. The Heftar place also ‘eiitas a bridge too far given ai-Keet’sclsposfion. But | do agree that isnot too late this goverment can ust tsarand take yome {undamartal decisions tol mprove quid, get the real war-wounded good treatment, and push the MOD and MO! to speed up the DDR process, From: Sulivan, Jacob 3 lente Tue 1/24/2012 2:25 AM To! Cretz, Gene A; Feliman, Jeffrey D Subject: Ubya lao Interested, as always, in your views. SOURCE: Sources wih direct access tothe Libyan Netional Transitional Councl, as wel ss the highest levels of European Governments, and Wester Intaligence and security services. 4. Onthe evening of January 22, 2012, according to an official with aocess tothe leadarahip of the National ‘Transitional Goverment (NTC), Libyen President Mustafa Abdul Jail spoke at length with Prime Minister Abdurrahi et a siting na heated exchange Cat el-Keib’s government must take the stops necessary to address the complaints of the demobilized fighters from the 201 revolution. Jail pointed out that the new goverment hes been discussing this, ‘tuation since it was formed in Oclober 2011, and matters have now reached a cists point, with a group of more than 2.000 dlgrunted veterans, supporiad by students ettackng the NT offices in Benghazi on January 21, destroying Computer equipment and NTC fies. These dernontretor, some of whom threw Molotov cocktals atthe NTC fazaquertets bung, continue to demand beter medoal cae, jobs, payment forthe time inthe reveutonary ary, and z & commie i taneparaoy onthe pat of theo et rg: partouery te apparent of eine merbers and seni 2. According to this source, when e-Kelb replied, pointing cut that demonstrators were camped outside of his office in Trpol. He added that the government had fo proceed in @ measured and professional manner, Jall stated in ‘angry tones, that NTC staffers were besten end could have boen klled during the January 21 Incident, pointing out that this Is how the rebetion against Muammar al Caddaf begen in February 2011. Jal also warned that islamist leader General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhal and his supporters, partculary militia commanders trom Zintan, Misra, end other ‘western regions, ere anxiously waiting for the NTC goverment to cofepse. Their goal, inthe opinion ofthis individual, is {o eventually move in and establish « strict lelemic stale. Jal, added that his contacts inthe Egyptian Musi Brotherhood had been in touch during the preceding week, waming thatthe threat from Belhal is very real. El-Kelb stated that he must press Minister of Defense Osama al-Juwal and interior Minister Faw Abd Al fo be more efficient in administering thelr poaltons. According to this Individual, @-Keib fears that al-/uwall, who was a western commander during the revolution, may be maintaining a secret relationship with Belha| and Na ales. In reaponse, Jeli warned e-Kelb to avoid trying o use the regular mitary forces posted around Benghazt Under General Knalfa Beigesim Haftar in an effort to restrain the former mia raops #8 auch a step couk! Weed fo ch war. 3. (Bource Comment: Inthe opinion of an extremely well placed indhvidual, e-Kelb i, infact, increasingly frustrated by the inefficiency In hia ragima and the inabilty of hie miniatars and administrators to srange contracts with foreign firme. He complaine that hi principal sdvieos, Minister of Oll Abdurahman Ben Yezza and Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglem, bava been to tid in ranoving the questions aesociaied wih contracts ivciving foreign firms, both ofa ‘cd new. At present eppeare that whenever one official raises a queation regarding an agreement the entre matter le ‘put on hold and delayed. inthe opinion ofthis soures, w-Kelb knows that without these agreements he cannot meet the ‘demande of the veterane and the students. ELKeib staid in confidence, that he may have made a serious mistake In removing the former ol/inance minieler All Tarhouni trom the government. EbKlb also noted that Jail a shaken by the January 21 nak on NTC heauarars ad i eacing fr ways to appege th demons, Maeecaty Ne ached Abdel Hah Gheza, Nis principal deity and NTC apokeeman to stap down, Ghoza, who comas tom ne ‘Benghaz! aree, was particuttty unpopular wit the westem troops.) 4. Following the discussion with Jal, e-Kieb ordered Ziglam and Ngeb Obed, the head af the Stock Exchange, to move with al poasible speed to addreas the issue ofthe foreign contracts and arrange for new vendors to provide the ‘services demanded by the veterans and students, In this discussion he pointed out that they cannot deal with this ‘stuation they wil not have to worry about the national elections in 2012, Libya wil be an Islamic Rapubte, with Betha} as the ruler. E-Kelb polntad out tet foreign goverments and targe ol fir muat be aware ofthis threat and that thie wit frighten them into meeting the condtions for foreign contracts set out bythe NTC. 6, (Source Comment. According to an extremely sensitive source, e+Keib spoke secrety with Hafter, stating thet he, and thowe roope loyal to him, should be prepared to move to protect the-government inthe event of inoreaed violence. ‘This effort could indude moving against Belnal and attacking mila forces before they can unite and corgantzs. E-Kelb emphasized that this fs for planning ‘oni, and no action should be taken until e-Ked gives the order. He emphasized that he will do everything possible to avoid civil wer, but he la now cencemed that Jaf wil be unable to dee! withthe level of hestity against the NTC, and cannot be counted on to take strong postions against Belhaj ‘and his supporters. In the opleion of this Individual, el-Cetb cannot back away from hie commitment to technicians in senior postions, but he wil press them as hard as he can to have the government respond to the needs of the veterans, ‘and students, £'-Keld belleves It snot to late 1o address thee problems, but they must move quickly.) From: H chrod17@dintonemail.com> ‘Sent: Friday, January 27, 2012 7:15 AM To: Subject: ‘Fe H: V good Intel intemal Libya. Sid ‘Attachments: ‘hrc memo libya internal strife 012312.doo CONFIDENTIAL January 28, 2012 For HRC From: 84 Re: Libya internal strife SOURCE: sources with drect 00058 to the Libyan National Transitional Counol, as wel a2 the highest levels of European Govemments, and Wesiem ineligence and securly services. 4. On the evening af January 22, 2012, according to an offical wih aocess to the leadership of the Natlona! ‘Transaioril Government (NTC), Liyan Presklent Mustafa Abdul Jali spoke at length with Prime Minister Abdurrahim eb aid slang ia heated exchange that et Xelb's governmont must tke the stops necessary to address the comeains of a omobiized fighters fom the 201 revolution. Jal pointed out thal the new government has been discussing this Siaation sioe was formed in October 201, and mattors have now reachod a crisis point, wih @ group of more than 21000 dlsgrunted veterans, supported by students, atacking the NTC offices in Benghazi on January 21, destroying ‘Compuler equipment and NTC fs. These demonstrators, some of whom threw Molotov cooktas al the NTC freadguarters buding, contin to demand bottor medical care, Jobs, paymont for thelr ime Inthe revokaionary army, snd &.comamtnet te ranparency on te pa of te ‘ok Koib regime: particularly the appointment of cabinet members and senior officals. 2 Acoortiing to this source, when el-Kelb repfed, pointing aut that demonstrators were camped outside of his ‘office n Tipo, He ackled thatthe government had to proceed in a measured and professional manner, Jal stated in Snory tones, that NTC staffers were beaten and cout! have been killed during the January 21 incident, pointing out that {fis how the rebelfon against Muammar al Qaddafi began in February 2017. Jallatso wamed that Islamist ead ‘General Abdel Hekim Alamin Belhaj and his supports, particularly militia commanders from Zintan, Misrata, an! other, ‘tealom regions, are anxdously wating forthe NTC goverment to colapse. Their goal nthe opinion ofthis individual, ts {o eventually move in and establish a strict Islaric state, Jall, added that his contac inthe Egyptian Musimt Brotherhood had been in touch during the preceding week, waming that the threat from Bethal is very real. ELilb stated {hat he must prese Miniter of Defense Osama abJuwell and interior Minister Fawl Abd Allto be more efficent in ‘administering ther positions. According to this ladivdual, e-Kelb fears that at-Juwal, who was a western commander during the revoktion, may be maintaining a secret relationship with Bets and his alfes. In response, Jali wamed el-Ket FE eamree comment Inte opaon ofan extromely wel laced indiual, ets, n fal, erento rusted tpt eMcanoy nhs regime end the ably of his mista and acéltaorso arrange convees whh do a congas that is principal aisors, Minster of OH Abdulrahman Bon Yozza and Minister offen for AH cor bon oad reson the questions eesoded wth Contac kvohdng frelan fmns, et oe and new. See tk appoar rt whenever one off ases a queen regarding an areomont the etre mat put on hold and dalayed. In the opinion ofthis ‘source, el-Ketb knows that without these agreements he cannol meet the ‘ton hod an! doy andthe stents. E-Kelb stated in confidence the he may have made a serous mstako Wt demands oe mer obfinancerinsor Ai Tarhouni fom the government. Ebb also rotd that Jl shaven y ne Fra te dack on NT hoedquarer ands soarchng for ways 10 appease the dermansrators, Most apart Ne dae tatdn Ghoza, his prindpal deputy and NTC spokesman to step down. Ghoza, whe comes frm the Blenghaz! area, was pertouiar'y unpopular with the western troops.) e acowing te dloussion with Jal, e-Kieb ordered Ziglam and Ngeb Obed the head ofthe Stock Extras, tomove uh a pelt spond to adress the Issue of to foreign contacts and aange or nw vendors 19 prot ine oe fod by ine veterans and etudens, In this dscussion he potted out thal they cannot deal wit is Saat aol not yaveto wory abou the rafal elecons in 2012, bya wil bean lamic Repub, wih Seal os Sku th pete olf ha forign governments and arg ol es must be aware ofthis treat and he is wat {iighton them into meeting the conditions for foreign contracts set oul by the NTC: Pee Compont According oan exemalysonive sou, Keb spoke secretly wah Hefty, eating nat he, andthe woop eye to i, sould be prepared fo move to protect te government in the evant of ross ho, and those oop (iH inoke mang egaiet Bole and attacking mia forces before thoy oan ute and orge79- Peano Tsieed tal iss for Penning purposes nly, and no soln should bo taken untl@LKeb glee the oer Fret ad tha he wl do eworyting poset o avd civ war, but ho is mow concerned hat Jl wil be waste He emphasized hal i wily agama ine ATC, and carnal be counted ot to take strong postions against Bola and Nis seepertre ihe opi oft ndiidual. Keb cannot back way fom his caniiment to technicians Sete sarrna bx he wi ros hem as hard ashe ce o have the government respond tthe needs fhe welerans and Stidenis” BlKelb befeves iis not to ite fo address these problems, bul they must move quickly.) CONFIDENTIAL January 23, 2012 For: HRC From: Sid Re: Libya internal strife SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well a5 the highest levels of European Governments, and Wester Intelligence and security services. 1, Onthe evening of January 22, 2012, according to an oficial with access to the eadership of the National Transitional Government (NTC), Libyasi President Mustafa Abdul ‘Jalil spoke at length with Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Keib, stating in a heated exchange thet L-Keib’s government must take the stops necessary to address the complaint ofthe demobilized fighters from the 201 Irevolution, Jalil pointed out thatthe new government has been discussing ‘this situation since it was formed in October 2011, and matters have now reached a crisis point, ‘with a group of more than 2,000 disgruntled veterans, supported by students, attacking the NTC offices in Benghazi oa January 21, destroying computer equipment and NTC files. These demonstrators, some of whom threw Molotov cocktails at the NTC headquarters building, continue to demand better medical care, jobs, payment for ther time inthe revolutionary army, and a commitment to transparency on the part of the el-Keib regime, particulary the appointment of cabinet members and senior officials, 2. According to this source, when el-Keib replied, pointing out that demonstrators were camped outside of his office in Tripoli. He added that the government had to proceed in a ‘measured and professional manner, Jalil stated in angry tones, that NTC staffers were beaten and ‘could have been killed during the January 21 incident, pointing out that this is how the rebellion ‘against Muammar al Qaddafi began in February 2011. Jalil also warned thet Islamist leader General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belhaj and his supporters, particularly militia commanders from Zintan, Misrata, and other western regions, are anxiously waiting for the NTC government to collapse, Their goal, inthe opinion of this individual, is to eventually move in and establish & sttict Islamic state, Jali added that his contacts in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood had been in touch during the preceding week, warning that the threat from Bolhaj is very real. El-Keib stated that he must press Minister of Defense Osama al-Juwali and Interior Minister Fawzi Abd ‘Ali to be more efficient in administering their positions. According to this individual, e-Kelb fears thet al-Juwali, who was a western commander during the revolution, may be maintaining & secret relationship with Belhaj and his allies. In response, Jalil warned el-Keib to avoid trying to ‘use the regular military forces posted around Benghazi under General Khalifa Belqasim Haftar in ‘an effort to restrain the former militia troops as such a step could lead to civil war. 3, (Source Comment: In the opinion of an extremely well placed individual, el-Keib is, in fact, increasingly frustrated by the inefficiency in his regime and the inability of his ministers and administrators to arrange contracts with foreign firms. He complains that his principal advisors, Minister of Oil Abdulrahman Bea Yezza and Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam, have ‘been too timid in resolving the questions associated with contracts involving foreign firms, both old and new, At present it appears that whenever one official raises a question regarding an agreement the entire matter is put on hold and delayed. In the opinion of this source, el-Keib ‘knows thst without these agreements he cannot meet the demands of the veterans and the students, El-Keib stated in confidence, that he may have made a serious mistake in removing the former cil/Snance minister Ali Tarhouni from the goverument. El-Keib also noted that Jalil is shaken by the January 21 attack on NTC headquarters and is searching for ways to appease the demonstrators, Most recently be asked Abdel ~ Hafidh Ghoza, his principal deputy and NTC spokesman to step down. Ghoza, who comes from the Benghazi area, was particularly unpopular with the westera troops.) 4, Following the discussion with Jalil, el-Kieb ordered Ziglam and Ngeb Obeda, the head of the Stock Exchange, to mave with all possible speed to address the issue of the foreign contracts and arrange for new vendors to provide the services demanded by the veterans and students, In this discussion he pointed out that if they cannot deal with this situation they will ‘not have to worry about the national clections in 2012, Libye will be an Islamic Republic, with Belhaj as the nulec, El-Keib pointed out that foreign governments and large oil firms must be ‘aware of this threat and thet this will ftighten them into meeting the conditions for foreign ‘contracts set out by the NTC. 5, (Source Comment: According to an extremely sensitive source, el-Keib spoke secretly with Haftar, stating that he, and those troops loyal to him, should be prepared to move to ‘protect the government inthe event of increased violence. ‘This effort could include moving against Balhaj and attacking militie forces before they can unite and organize. F-Keib ‘emphasized that this i for planning purpotes only, and no action should be taken until el Keib siives the order. He emphasized that he will do everything possible to avoid civil war, but he is now concemed that Jalil will be unable to deal with the level of hostility against the NTC, and ‘cannot be counted on to take strong positions against Belhaj and his supporters. In the opinion of fividual, el-Keib cannot back away from his commitment to technicians in senior ‘positions, but he will press them as hard as he can to have the government respond to the needs of the veterans and students. El-Keib believes it is not too late to address these problems, but they must move quickly.) From: H Sent: ‘Tuesday, February 21,2012 11:14 PM To: Jacob J Sullivan Subject Fad: H: bya, intel intemal conf ove mites Sid Attachments: fre iby itis 022112. docs ATTOOOO1 tm is review and forward as appropriate. Sent from my iPad Begin forwarded message: From: ‘rhoen IE eho Date: February 21, 2012 10:04:57 PM EST 2012 10:0 To ‘Subject: H: Libya, intel, internal conflict over militias. Sid CONFIDENTIAL February 21, 2012 For: Hillary From: sid Re: Libya polities to control militias SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as ‘well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services. 1. On February 19, 2012, Libyan President Mustafa Abdul Jalil and Prime ‘Minister Abdurrahim el-Keib instructed Minister of the Interior Minister Fawzi Abd Ali ‘and Minister of Defense Osama al Juwali to move as foreefully as possible to deal with armed conflict between the various militias which carried the bulk of fighting during the 2orirevolution against former dictator Muammar al Qaddafi. According to an extremely sensitive source speaking in secret, el-Keib, acting in his role as the head of government, told the two ministers that, ifthey could not stop the fighting and disarm the militias he would be forced to find ministers who can carry out his orders. Ali and Juwali each stated privately that, while they would follow orders, they have little hope of succeeding in this matter until el-Keib and Jalil gain credibility as the rulers of the country. Ali added that, in his opinion, this situation will persist until a new government is chosen during the national elections planned for later in 2012. 2, Inthe opinion of this individual, the Prime Minister is particularly concerned by the situation in the Southera portion of the country, where the area defined by the towns of Ghat, Sabha, and al Kufra, where fighting between rival tribal and regional militias has beon exacerbated by the activities of Qaddafi loyalists, and their allies, ‘Taureg tribal fighters. This individual added that el-Keib and Jalil agree that the uncertain security situation in this area represents a threat to Libya's future stability. ‘agreed that, at present, if faced with a concerted effort by either disaffected jamen or pro-Qaddafi forces government security forces and the new national army would be unable to protect either Libyan citizens or Western businessmen and oil industry workers in the region. '3-(Soures Comment: In the opinion of this individual, el-Kelb believes that any attack against oil field workers will frighten large Westem firms and seriously damage Libya's efforts to recover from the revolution. This individual added that al Juwall is particularly upset with his deputy Minister and Chief of Staff of the Army, General ‘Yousef Mangoush, who he believes has been unable to work with national army ground force commander General Khalifa Belqasim Haftar. A very sensitive source added that the Benghazi based units of the army, under Haftar’s direct command, are eurrently ‘to the area southeast of al-Kufra, along the Sudanese border.) ‘4, Inthe opinion of a sensitive source, Haftar and al Juwali believe that the ‘Sudanese military is providing arms and supplies to the pro-Qaddafi forces, under direct orders from Sudanese President Omar al Bashir. El-Keib complained to al-Juwali that Haftar’s forces passed through al-Kufra region during early and mid-February on their ‘way to the Sudanese border, however; they did nothing to disarm the local revolutionary militias, or stop the fighting between competing tribal groups. In the opinion of this Individual, Haber ‘the pro-Qaddafi forces was greater than that posed by the regional and tribal fighting. . Atthe same time, a source with excellent access to the leadership of the regional, tribal, and religious rivals throughout the Northern/ Mediterranean portions of the country. This same source added that the ongoing struggle between the Misrata and Zintan mailitias for control of the area west of Tripoli is particularly violent and disruptive for the rest of the country. In the capital itself, fighting continues between ‘regional groups, the national army, Islamist militias, and criminal street gangs, all of ‘whom are very well armed. This individual reports that during mid-February 2012 ¢l- Kelb and Jalil agreed to address the problem of disaffected former militiamen and their families by providing payments of 2,000 Dinars (approximately $1,500) per month to the families of fighters who were wounded or killed in the revolution. 6. In addition the President and Prime Minister instructed Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam to develop an efficient system to provide assistance funds to unemployed former fighters. For his part, Ziglam privately expressed concern that previous efforts in tis regard have met with a high level of fraud. According to the government's best estimates, the revolutionary amy included approxmely 25,000 combat troops, but it is difficult to identify those with legitimate claims, as no accurate service records were maintained. That said, he stated in private that the, must be seen to take some form of direct action, even if money is paid to tt elaimants. The fact is, according to Ziglam, the NTs losing control of the country and must give something to the veterans of the revolution to slow this process. "7. (Souree Comment: Speaking in strictest confidence, a knowledgeable {individual stated that al-Juwali is concerned by the possibility that the country may deteriorate into a multi-sided civil war involving the regional militias, Islamist forces ‘and the national army. At the same time, he acknowledges that the new army has lost control of large portions of the southern part of the country, with tribal fighting spilling, ae’ According tothis soe, aja la frustrated bythe of train various national monly tess byt vemmensf fee Ta. Heald ha i Tcky has received some of the most seriously wound troops for treatment, the Jack of . adequate medical care for veterans inside of Libya remains a major source of conflict ‘between the former rebel troops and the NTC government.) CONFIDENTIAL February 21, 2012 For: Hillary ‘From: Sid Re; Libya polities to control militias SOURCE: Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services. 1. On February 19, 2012, Libyan President Mustafa Abdul Jalil and Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Keib instructed Minister of the Interior Minister Fawzi Abd Ali and Minister of ‘Defense Osama al Juwali to move as forcefully as possible to deal with armed conflict between ‘the various militias which carried the bulk of fighting during the 201 Irevolution against former dictator Muammar al Qaddafi. According to an extremely sensitive source speaking in secret, el- Keib, acting in his role as the head of government, told the two ministers that, if they could not stop the fighting and disarm the militias he would be forced to find ministers who can carry out is orders. Ali and Juwali each stated privately that, while they would follow orders, they have litle hope of succeeding in this matter until el-Keib and Jalil gain credibility asthe rulers of the ‘country, Ali added that, in his opinion, this situation will persist until a new government is ‘chosen during the national elections planned for tater in 2012. 2. In the opinion ofthis individual, the Prime Minister is particularly concerned by the situation in the Southem portion of the country, where the area defined by the towns of Ghat, Sabba, and al Kufta, where fighting between rival tribal and regional militias has been ‘exacerbated by the activities of Qaddafi loyalists, and their allies, Taureg tribal fighters. This individual added that el-Keib and Jalil agree that the uncertain security situation in this area represents a threat to Libye’s future stability. ‘They agreed that, at present, if faced with a concerted effort by either disaffected militiamen or pro-Qaddafi forces government security forces and the new national army would be unable to protect either Libyan citizens or Western businessmen and oil industry workers in the region. 3, (Source Comment: In the opinion of this individual, el-Keib believes that any attack against oil field workers will frighten large Western firms and seriously damage Libya’s efforts ‘to recover from the revolution, This individual adéed that al Juwali is particularly upset with his deputy Minister and Chief of Staf ofthe Army, General Yousef Mangoush, who he believes as been unable to work with national army ground foree commander General Khalifa Belqasim Haftar. A very sensitive source added that the Benghazi based units of the army, under Haftar’s direct command, are currently deploying tothe area southeast of al-Kufre, slong the Sudanese border.) 4. Inthe opinion of a sensitive source, Haftar and al Juwali believe that the Sudanese rnilitary is providing arms and supplies tothe pro-Quddafi forces, under direct orders from Sudanese President Omar al Bashir. El-Keib complained to l-Juwali that Haftar’s forces passed through al-Kufta region during early and mid-February on their way to the Sudanese border, ‘however; they did nothing to disarm the local revolutionary militias, or stop the fighting between competing tribal groups. In the opinion of this individual, Hafter felt thatthe threat from the pro- Qaddafi forves was greater than that posed by the regional and tribal fighting, 5. Atthe same time, a source with excellent access to the leadership of the National ‘Transitional Council (NTC) stated in socret that fighting continues between regional, tribal, and religious rivals throughout the Northern/Mediterranean portions of the country. This same source added that the ongoing struggle between the Misrata and Zinten militiss for control of the area west of Tripoli is particularly violent and disruptive for the rest of the country, In the capital itself, fighting continues between regional groups, the national army, Islamist militias, and-criminal street gangs, all of whom are very well armed. This individual reports that during mid-February 2012 el-Keib and Jalil agreed to address the problem of disaffected former militiamen and their families by providing payments of 2,000 Dinars (approximately $1,500) per ‘month to the families of fighters who were wounded or killed in the revolution. 6, In addition the President and Prime Minister instructed Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam to develop an efficent system to provide assistance funds to unemployed former fighters. For his part, Ziglam privately expressed concern that previous efforts in this regard have met ‘with a high level of fraud. According to the government's best estimates, the revolutionary army included approximately 25,000 combat troops, but its difficult to identify those with legitimate claims, as no accurate service records were maintained. That said, he stated in private that the government must be seen to take some form of direct action, even if money is paid to fraudulent claimants, ‘The facts, according to Ziglam, the NTC is losing control of the country and must give something to the veterans of the revolution to slow this process. 7. (Source Comment: Spealcing in stitest confidence, a knowiedgexble individual stated that al-Juwali is concerned by the possibility thet the country may deteriorate into a mult-sided civil war involving the regional militias, Islamist forces and the national army. At the same time, he acknowledges that the new army has lost control of large portions of the southem part ofthe county, with teal fighting spilling over into Mali and Chad. According to this source, al- Suwa js also frustrated by the slow pace of military and police training promised tothe various “Libyan national securty forces by the governments of France and Turkey. He added that, while ‘Turkey has recsived some ofthe most sesiously wound troops for treatment, tho lack of adequate smodical care for veterens inside of Libya remains a major source of conflict between the former rebel troops and the NTC government.) TEU EEE ana From: Sullivan, Jacob J ‘Sent: Wednesday, February 22, 2012 12:15 AM H ‘Subject: Re: Fwd: H: Libya, Intel, internal conflict over miitas. Sid will do. Prom: H [mailto:ORZ2@cimonemll.com] ‘Sent: Tusaday, Rebruary 21, 2012 11:14 PM = ‘To: Sutivan, Jacob 3 ‘Subject: Fwd: H: Lye, Intel, internal confict over nftas. Sic is review and forward as appropriate. Sent ftom my iPad Begin forwarded message: From: "othocoo I ceo Date: February 21, 2012 10:04:57 PM EST To: H ‘Subject: H: Libys, intel, Internal conflict over mititias, Sid CONFIDENTIAL February 21, 2012 For: Hillary From; Sid ‘Re: Libya politics to control militias SOURCE: Sources with direct access to thie Libyan National Transitional Council, as ‘well as the highest levels of European Governments, and Western Intelligence and security services. 1. On February 19, 2012, Libyan President Mustafa Abdul Jalil and Prime Minister Abdurrahim el-Keib instructed Minister of the Interiot Minister Fawzi Abd Ali and Minister of Defense Osama al Juwali to move as forcefully as posstble to deal with. armed conflict between the various malitias which carried the bulk of fighting during the According toan 2o1zrevolution against former dictator Muammar al Qaddafi. extremely sensitive source speaking in secret, el-Keib, acting in his role as the head of government, told the two ministers that, if they could not stop the fighting and disarm the militias he would be forced to find ministers who can carry out his orders. Ali and ‘Juwali each stated privately that, while they would follow orders, they have little hope of ing in this matter until el-Keib and Jalil gain credibility as the rulers of the militiamen or; ‘would be unable to protect elther Libyan citizens or Western businessmen and oil industry workers in the region, 3. (Source Comment: In the opinion of this individual, el-Keib believes that any attack against oil field workers will frighten large Western firms and seriously damage Libye’s efforts to recover from the revolution. ‘This individual added that al Juwall is ‘upset with his deputy Minister and Chief of Staff of the Army, General ‘Yousef Mangoush, who he believes has been unable to work with national army ground foree commander General Khalifa Belqasim Haftar. A very sensitive source added that deploying to the area southeast of al-Kufra, along the Sudanese border.) 4. Inthe opinion of a sensitive source, Haftar and al Juwali believe that the Sudanese military is providing arms and supplies to the pro-Qaddafi forces, under direct orders from Sudanese President Omar al Bashir. El-Keib complained to al-Juwali that Haftar's forces passed ‘al-Kufra region during early and mid-February on their way to the Sudanese border, ; they did nothing to disarm the local revolutionary militias, or stop the fighting between competing tribal groups. In the opinion of this individual, Hafter felt that the threat from the pro-Qaddafi forces was greater than that posed by the regional and tribal fighting. 5. Atthe same time, a source with excellent access to the leadership of the National Transitional Council (NTC) stated in secret that: continues between tribal, and religious rivals throughout the Northern/ Mediterranean portions of the country. This same source added that the ongoing struggle between the Misrata and ‘intan militias for control of the area west of Tripoli is particularly violent and disruptive for the rest of the country, In the capital itself, fighting continues between regional groups, the national army, Islamist militias, and street gangs, all of whom are very well armed. This individual reports that during mid-February 2012 el- Kelb and Jalil agreed to address the problem of disaffected former militiamen and their families by providing payments of 2,000 Dinars (approximately $1,500) per month to the families of fighters who were wounded or killed in the revolution. 6. Inaddition the President and Prime Minister instructed Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam to develop an efficient system to provide assistance funds to unemployed former fighters. For his part, Ziglam privately expressed concern that previous efforts in this regard have met with a high level of fraud. According to the government's best estimates, the revolutionary army included approximately 25,000 combat troops, but it is difficult to identify those with legitimate claims, as no accurate service records were maintained. That sald, he stated in private that the government mast be seen to take some form of direct action, even if money is paid to fraudulent claimants. The fact is, according to Ziglam, the NTC is losing control of the country and must give something, ‘of the revolution i to the veterans. to slow this process. 7. (Source Comment: Speaking in strictest confidence, a knowledgeable individual stated that al-Juwali is concerned by the possibility that the country may deteriorate into a multi-sided civil war involving the regional militias, Islamist forces oe to einen et eg part of the country, ver into Mali and Chad, According to this source Juwall sale frustrated by the ofl and plc tlningpromized othe aious Libyan national adequate medical care for veterans inside of Libya remains a major source of conflict ‘between the former rebel troops and the NTC government.) —S EE From: Sulivary Jacob J Sent: Friday, Februsry 24,2012 5:24 AM To: 4 Subject: Fa From HRC fiend Latest from Gene. — Original Message — From: Cret, Gene A Sent: Friday, February 24, 2012 01:13 AM To: Sulivan, Jacob J; Feltman, Jeffrey D Subject: RE: From HRC friend {1am skeptical that Jall and al-kaeb are capable either by power or by character to deal with the shortcomings of thelr ‘MinDef and Minint in this way. The latter 2 are both very powerful by virtue of their Zintan and Misrata roots respectively, and ary effort to remove them would have seriousblowback. MiniNt Fawzi who I saw the other day Clearly way ahead of his coleague in getting the thuwar into the process of registration, the first step hopefully toward ‘DOR. I think everybody hare is aware now how dlfficult the disarming of these miltias, which have become de facto real Institutions in and of themselves. it (s naleve to think they can be dissolved by executive fiat. Some positive mavement- Jordanians preparing to accept first tranche of 1500 for police training, “There is concern here that continuing rivalries among the militias remains dangerous from the perspective of the havoc they can wreak with thelr fieepower and thelr continued control af select tur. At the end of the day, {think everybody is ‘coming to the conclusion that the elections will take place in the context of militia control. We hope that a program can be devised to keep them acting responsibly toward the outcome ofthe election, especialy vi the obligations they may ‘well be asked to undertake to keep elections free, and fsirand devoid of violence. Always danger of continuing, skirmishes but Armageddon predictions abit overstated, . ‘We are all worried about the situation in Kufra and the clashes between the Arab alZwal tribe and the African tribals the ‘Tebu, This ls again a legacy of the Qadhafl era who played on these divisions to keep bienself in control. The government belleves that the Tebu are being alded from al_Gadhafi elements and perhaps government supporters in Sudan to undermine the TNC. There are some disturbing signs that in fact the TNC may be supporting the dispatch of select militias to deploy down there maybe rpt maybe to "resolve" this ethnic problem as the sftuation in Tewarga was resolved-ie., “ethnic cleansing’ —We are only at the very beginning stages of seeing whether there is credible evidence on this score--so please rpt please don't raise any flags about It. it would be explosive.! will keep you informed about any info we develop. ‘No surprise about Heftar-he is extremely angry he lost out on the COS spat so his efforts to undermine the new COS [Mangoosh would be ful inne with his character to be big cheese. “The war wounded Isa national tragedy. The former group allowed everybody to go abroad and they did to the tune of 800 milion dollars. 50,000 Lbyans abroad now-1S percent receiving medical treatment. Who do you think the others ‘are? Relatives, frauds, and those who snuck out to get botox and tummy tucks. Senator McCain wit ral about our refusal to take thousands of them to the States but the process has been so bungled | think we did as much as we could ‘considering. —Original Message— From: Sulivan, Jacob 3 Sent: Wednesday, February 22, 2012 9:11 AM ‘To: Feltman, Jeffrey D; Crete, Gene A ‘Subject: From HRC friend Here Is the atest on Libya. As always, let me know your thoughts. ‘SOURCE: ‘Sources with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Councl, as well asthe highest levels of European Governments, and Western intelligence and security services. 1. ‘on February 19, 2012, Ubyan President Mustafa Abdul all and Prime Minster Abdurrahim eb-Kelb instructed Minster. ofthe inerir Minster Fo! Abd All and Minister of Defense Osama al uwall to move as forcefully as possible to dea! Sith armed gonflet between the various miltias which carried the bulk of fighting during the 2012revolution agalnst former dictator Muammar al Gaddafi. ereenrdng to an extremely sensitive source speaking In sacret, eat actig in his role a the hea of government tld tha two misisters that, they could not stop the fighting and disarm the mills he would be forced to find ministers ‘who can carry out his orders. ‘it and lowel each stated privately that, while they would folow orders, they have tle hope of succesding in this ‘matter untl e-Kelb and Jalll gain credibility as the rulers of the country, vai added that, in his oplnion, this situation wit parsist until a new government is chosen during the national elections planned for tater in 2012. 2. Inthe oplnion of this indvual,the Prime Minister particularly concerned by the situation nthe Southern portion of thecauntry, where the area defied by the towns of Ghat, Sabha, and a Kua, where iting between ral tel nd reglonal militias has been exacerbated by the activites of ‘Qaddafi loyalists, and thei alles, Taureg tribal fighters. ‘Tis individual added that e-Kelb and all agree that the uncertain security situation in hs area represents athrest to Ubya's future stabilty. “They oped that, a present, If faced with a concerted effort by ether disaffected milléamen or pro-Caddaf forces government seurtyfores and the new national army would be unable to protect ether Ubyen ctizens or Western businessmen and olf Industry workers In the region. 3, (Source Comment: Inthe opinion ofthis individual, e-Kelb believes that any attack agalnst ol field workers wil fighter large Western ‘firms and serlously damage Libya's efforts to recover from the revolution. ‘This individual added that ai uvall ls particularly upset with his deputy Minister and Chef of Staff ofthe Army, General ‘Yousef Mangoush, who he believes has been unable to work with national army ground foree commander General Xaltfa Belgasion Haftar. ‘A very senate sour added thatthe Benghaz! based units of the sry, under Haas rect command, are currently deploying to the area southeast of al-Kutra, along the Sudanese border.) 4. Inthe opinion of a Sensitive source, Matar and al uwal believe thatthe Sudanese miltary is providing arms and suppies tothe pro-Caaddafiforces, under drect orders from Sudanese President Omar al Gash. ELKelb complained to a-uwall that Haftar's forces passed through abKufra region during early and mid-February on their way to the Sudanese border, however; they did nathig te disarm the local revolutionary riltias, or stop the fighting between competing tribal groups. inthe opinion ofthis Individual, Hafter felt thatthe threat from the pro-Caddal forces wes greater than that posed by the regional and tribal fighting. 5. ‘Atte same time, a source with excellent access to the leadership ofthe National Transitional Council (NTC) stated in secret that fighting continues between regional, trlbal, and religlous rvas throughout the Northern/Mediterranesn portions ofthe country. ‘This same source added thet the ongoing struggle between the Misrata and Zintan mitts for control ofthe area west of Tripoli particularly violent and disruptive forthe rest ofthe country In the capital self, fighting continues between regional groups, the national army, Islamist jangs, all of whom are very well armed. ‘This individual report that during mid-February 2012 eb-Kelb and Jal agreed to address the problem of disaffected former miltiamen and their fares by providing payments of 2,000 Dinars (approximately $1,500) per month to the familes of fighters who were wounded or kiled inthe revolution. 6. Inaddition the President and Prime Minister Instructed Minister of Finance Hassan Zglam to develop an efficient system to provide assistance funds to unemployed former fighters. For his pert, Zglam privately expressed concern that previous efforts In this regard have met witha high evel of fraud. ‘According tothe government's best estimates, the revolutionary army Included approximately 25,000 eambat troops, but is dificult to identify those with lagltimate claims, as no accurate service records were maintained. “That sai, he stated in private that the government must be seen to take some form of direct action, even if money is ald to fraudulent clabmants, "The fact, according to Ziglam, the NTC Is losing control ofthe country and must glve something to the veterans of the revolution to slow this process. 7. Source Comment: Speaking In strictest confidence, a knowledgeable Individual stated that al-suwall is concerned by the possibilty that the country may deteriorate Into a multhalded chil war Involving the regional militias, lslamistforeas and the national army. “A the same time, he acknowledges thatthe new army has lst control of large portions of the southern part ofthe country, with tribal fighting spling ever into Mali and Chad. "According to this source, al-uwallis also frustrated by the slow pace of miltary and police taining promised to the various Ubyan national security foreas by the governments of France and Turkey. He added that, while Turkey has received some of the most seriously wound troops for treatment, the lack of adequate medical care for veterans inside of Libya remains a major source of confict between the former rebel troops and the NTC government. rmlltias, and criminal street rd From H chrodt7@dintonemailcom> Sent: ‘Tuesday, February 28, 2012 629 AM Tor Subject: Fc From HRC fend Pls pent, Original Message —— From: Sullivan, Jacob J {mato:SullvanWJ@state gov] Sent: Friday, February 24, 2012 05:24 AM To:H Subject: Fw: From HRC friend Latest from Gene. Original Message — From: Cretu, Gene A Sent: Friday, February 24, 2012 01:13 AM ‘To: Sullivan, Jacob J; Feltman, Jeffrey D Subject: RE: From HRC friend {1am skeptical that Jl and al-keeb are capable elther by power or by character to deal with the shortcomings of thelr ‘MinDef and Minint in his way. The lattar 2 are both very powerful by virtue of their intan and Misrata rots respectively, and any effort to remove them would have seriousblowback. MinINt Fawal who I saw the other day Is clearly way ehead of his colleague in getting the thuwar into the process of registration, the first step hopefully toward DDR. | think everybody here is aware now how dificult the disarming of these militias, which have become de facto real insttutions in and of theméelves. It is naieve to think they can be dissolved by executive fat. Some positive movement- Jordanians preparing to accept first tranche of 1500 for police traning. There is concern here that continuing rivalries among the militias remains dangerous from the perspective of the havoc they can wreak with their frepower and their continued control of select tut. At the end ofthe day, I think everybody is coming to the conclusion that the elections wil take place In the contest of militia control. We hope that a program can bbe devised to keep them acting responsibly toward the outcome ofthe election, especially vz the obligations they may wel be asked to undertake to keep elections free, and fair and devoid of violence. Always danger of continulng skirmishes but Armageddon predictions a bit overstated, \We are all worried about the situation n Kufra and the clashes between the Arab alZwai tribe and the African tribals the ‘Tebu., This Is again a legacy of the Qadhaf era who played on these divisions to keep himsetf'in control. The ‘government belleves that the Tabu are being sided from al_Cadhaf! elements and perhaps government supporters in Sudan to undermine the TNC, There are sore disturbing signs that in fact the TNC may be supporting the dispatch of select milttas to deploy down there maybe pt maybe to “resolve” this ethiie problem as the situation In Tewarga was retohved-L,, "ethnic cleansing” ~We are only at the very beginning stages of seeing whether there Is credible evidence on this score-o please rt please don't raise any flags about tt would be explosive.! wll keep you informed about any Info we develop, ‘No surprise about Heftar-he is extremely angry he lost out on the COS spot so his efforts to undermine the new COS Mangocsh would be fully In ine with his character to be big cheese. ‘The war wounded Is a national tragedy. The former group allowed everybody to go abroad and they did to the tune of £200 millon dollars, 50,000 Lbyans abroad now-15 percent receiving medical treatment. Who do you think the others ‘are? Relatives, frauds, and those who snuck out to get botox and tummy tucks. Senator McCain will ral about our ‘refusal to take thousands of them to the States but the process has been so bungled | think we did as much as we could considering. —~~Original Message— rom: Sullivan, Jacob J Sent: Wednesday, February 22, 2012 9:11 AM To: Feltman, Jeffrey D; Cretz, Gene A Subject: From HAC friend Here is the latest on Libya. As always, let me know your thoughts, SOURCE: Souroas with direct access to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levels of European ‘Governments, and Wester Intelligence and security services. L ‘on February 19, 2012, Libyan President Mustafa Abdul Jalil and Prime Minster Abdurrahim e-Kelo Instructed Minister ‘ofthe Interior Minister Fawai Abd All and Miniter of Defense Osama al Juwall ts move as forcefully as possible to deal ‘wth armed conflict between the various mlitias which carried the bulk of fighting during the 2014revolution against former dictator Muammar al Qaddafi ‘According to an extremely senitive source speaking In secret, e-Kefb, acting in his role asthe head of government, told the two ministers that, they could not stop the fighting and disarm the millas he would be forced to find ministers ‘who can carryout his orders, : ‘Aland Juwall each stated privately that, while they would follow orders, they have ite hope of succeeding inthis matter until el-Kefb and Jl gain credibility as the rules of the country. ‘Aladded that, in his opinion, this station wil perest unt a new government is chosen during the national elections planned for later in 2012. 2 Inthe opinion of this indlvidul, the Prime Minister s particularly concemed by the situation in the Souther portion of the country, where the area deflned bythe towns of Ghat, Sabha, anal Kufra, where fighting between ral tribal and regional militias hasbeen exacerbated by the activites of Gadde loyalists, and thelr ales, Taureg tribal fighters. ‘This individual added that e-Ketb and Jal agree that the uncertain securty situation inthis area represents a threat to bya future stably, ‘They agreed that, a present, If faced with a concerted effort by ether dlsafected militiamen or pro-Caddaf forces ‘government security forces and the new national amy would be unable to protect elther Libyan citizens or Western businessmen and of industry workers inthe region. 3, (Source Comment: Inthe opinion ofthis individual, el-Kelb belloves that any attack agalnst of field workers wil frighten lange Western firms and seriously damage Lbye's efforts to recover from the revolution. ‘This individual added that al wall particulary upset with his deputy Mister and Chief of Staff ofthe Army, General Youzef Mangoush, who hebelleves has been unable to work with national army ground force commander General alfa Belqasim Haftar, ‘Avery sensitive source added thatthe Benghax! based units ofthe army, under Haftar’ drect command, are currently deploying to the area southeast of al-Kufra, along the Sudanese border.) 4. Inthe opinion ofa sensftve souree, Heftar and al Juwall beleve thet the Sudanese miltary is providing arms and supplies tothe pro-Cuddal forces, under dect orders from Sudanese President Omar al Bashi EL-Kelb complained to alluwall that Haftar’s forces passed through al-Kufra region during early and mid-February on. thelr way to the Sudanese border, however; they did nothing to disarm the local revolutionary milkins, or stop the ‘fighting between competing tribal groups. In the opinion of this individual, Hafter felt that the threat from the pro-Caddafl forces was greater than that posed by the regional and tribal fighting. 5, [Acthe same time, a source with excellent access to the leadership of the National Transitional Courxil (NTC) stated In secret that fighting continues between regional, tribal, and religious rhvals throughout the Northern/Mediterranean portions of the country. ‘This same source added that the ongoing struggle between the Misrata and Zintan miltias for control of the area west (of Tripoll is particularly violent and disruptive forthe rest of the country. {nthe capital itself, fighting continues between regional groups, the national amy, klamist militias, and criminal street ‘gangs, al of whom are very well armed. “This Individual reports that during mid-February 2012 el-Kelb and Jal agreed to address the problem of disaffected former militiamen and thelr families by providing payments of 2,000 Dinars (approximataly $3,500) per month to the families of fighters who were wounded or killed inthe revohition. 6 In addition the President and Prime Minister instructed Minister of Finance Hassan Ziglam to develop an efficient ‘system to provide assistance funds to unemployed former fighters. For his part Ziglam privately expressad concern that previous efforts n this regard have met with a high level of fraud. ‘According to the governments best estimates, the revolutionary army included approximately 25,000 combat troops, but Its dificult to Identify those with legitimate claims, as no accurate service records were maintained. ‘That sald, he stated in private that the government must be seen to take some form of direct action, aven if money is pal to fraudulent claimants. “The fact Is, according to Zigam, the NTC's losing control of the country and must give something to the veterans of the revolution to slow this process. 7. (Source Comment: Spetking in strictest confidence, a knowledgeable individual stated that atJuwall ls concerned by the possiblity that the country may deteriorate into @ multi-sided civil war involving the regional milla, Islamist forces and the national army. ‘At the same time, he acknowledges that the new army has lost control of large portions of the southem part ofthe ‘country, with tribal fighting spilling over into Mal! and Ched. ‘According to this source, al-Juwall is also frustrated by the slow pace of military and police training promised to the various Libyan national securtty forces by the governments of France and Turkey. He added that, white Turkey has received some of the most seriously wound troops for treatment, the ack of ‘adequate medical care for veterans Inside of Libya remains a major source of conflict between the former rebel troops and the NTC government. H Friday, March 9, 2012 7:40 AM ‘sulivani@ state gov fw: Hi France & UK behind Libya breakup. Sid hrc libya breakup francefauk behind split 020812.docx ie ‘This one strains credulity. What do you think? maito:sbwhoeo ‘Sent: Thursday, March 08, 2012 06:50 PM To: ‘Subject: H: France & UK behind Libya breakup. Sid CONFIDENTIAL, March 8, 2012 For Hilary From: Sid Re: France & UK behind Libya breakup ‘SOURCE: “Souroes vith drat acces tothe Libyan National Transtional Counc, ws wel asthe highest levels of Exropsan Govermons, te Eoyptan Musim Breternood, end Westom Inialigenco and xecury serves. 4, uring the period between mitianuary 2012 to March 2012 offers of the a French General Directorate for Extomal Securty (rection Générale de la Sécurté Extérleure — DGSE), and the Brilsh Secret Inteligence Service {GIS-ML) activated long’ standing contacts with tribal and civic leaders in Eastern Libya, in an effort to encourage them to establish 2 semi-autonomous zane In the historie province of Cyrenaica (Barqa in Arabio). According to extremely knowledgeable sources, tNs effort was inated by advisors to French President Nicholas Sarkozy ator complaints from ‘concerned French business leaders thatthe new Libyan Government was not rewarding appropriately French firms for the leading role France played In supporting the 2011 revolution against former Dictator Muammar al Qaddafi. 1S joined in this effort a the instruction ofthe ofice of Primo Minister David Cameron. This highly confidential effort comes in response to the inabilty ofthe National Transitional Council (NTC) government in Tipol to organize the country ‘effectively and deal with Wester business interests in an effective end effctent manner. 72, ‘The French and Briish business and intelligence officials believe that a semb-autonomous regime in the stom city of Benghazl willbe able to organize business opportunities in that region. This in turn wil alow these ‘Westem fits to inlate new business projects. These same officials belleve that there is also reduced threat from {stemistrilles in the East, According to & knowledgoablo soure, French officals bolove that this situation is the natural result of ebKelb's falure to organize the couniry and disarm the ethnic and regkonal miftias who did the majority ofthe {ighiing against Qaddaffs forces during the revolution. ‘3, (Gaurce Comment: In the opinion of a very sonskive source, the French Govemmont and business feaders, actualy expected to receive thity five (25) per cent of new economic development in Libya after the fll of Qactiaf. Like ‘many Westem bushiessmen, these French officials made informal agreements with former Prime Minister Mahmoud Jbl fand his advisors, only to see those agreements ignored or delayed when Abdurrahim el-Kelb became head of government in October 2011. In their opinion, once el-Kelb moved the government from the Eastem aly of Benghazi to the nailonel ‘captal et Tipol, the gevemment became Inefficient and inacoessibie, These Individuels also believe that the “appointment of Minster of OW Abduirahman Bon Yezza, who wes along tine offical ofthe italian Oil Company (END, was, ‘a feotor. According to these sources, the bulk of ENI's of fiekis are in the Westem part of Libya, and Ben Yezza focused his attentions on that region, while failing to effectivaly organize new business East of Benghazi. ‘These same officials i a mec ‘of the Westem miltias, particularly those from the Zintan region, have weakened the Influence of Easter 4 ‘An oxiramely sensitive source stated thet the DGSE and SIS intend to controt the move toward a sem ‘autonomous state under a federal system. However, they have been surprised by eFKeib’s intention, expressed both in public and in secret meetings with Minister of Defense Ousar ‘el Juwali, a native of Zintan, to use force to hold the country together. EHXelb Is also committed to Ben Yezza, though he Is frustrated by the chaotic situation in Tripoll. This ‘atmosphere affects new business for the most part and has been extremely krtating for businessmen from France and ‘other Wester countries, 'S. (Goures Comment: inthe opinion of a well placed souroe with acooss fo the former royal fam (al SenussD, ‘while thase Westem officials are focused on working around the chaotic business situation, they are risking a civil wer, {aling to recognized the longstanding and complcated relationship between the Eastom and Wester parts of the county. Gaddaf, as an absolute dictator, suppressed these differences, which have reemerged with his defeat and death. In adlion, e-Kelb i taking fo old acquaintances in the Egypllan Muslim Brotherhood, In an effort to apply thei intuence to ‘the Eastern trbal Ekiers, and help hok! the country togeter,) CONFIDENTIAL March 8, 2012 For: Hillary From: Sid Re: France & UK behind Libya breakup SOURCE: Sources with direot acoess to the Libyan National Transitional Council, as well as the highest levels of Buropean Governments, the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and Western Intelligence and security services. 1, During the period between mid-January 2012 to March 2012 officers of the a French General Directorate for External Security (Direction Générale de la Séourité Extérioure ~ DGSE), and the British Secret Intelligence Service (SIS-MI-6) activated long standing contacts ‘with tbal and civic leaders in Bastern Libya, in an effort to encourage them to establish a semi- autonomous zone in the historic province of Cyrenaica (Barqa in Arabic). According to extremely nowledgeable sources, this effort was initiated by advisors to French President ‘Nicholas Sarkozy afler complaints from concerned French business leaders thatthe new Libyan Goverment was not rewarding appropriately French firms for the leading role France played in supporting the 2011 revolution against former Dictator Muarmmar al Qaddafi.” SIS joined inthis effort at the instruction of the office of Prime Minister David Cameron. This highly confidential effort comes in response to the inability of the National Transitional Council (NTC) government in Tripoli to organize the country effectively and deal with Western business interests in an effective and efficient manner. 2. ‘The French and British business and intelligence officials believe that a semi- mutonomous regime in the Easter city of Benghazi will be able to organize business ‘opportunities in that region. ‘This in tum will allow these Westem firms to initiate new business projects. These same officials believe that there is also reduced threat from Islamist ir the East, According to a knowledgeable source, French officials believe thet this situation is the natural result of el-Keib’s failure to organize the country and disarm the ethnic and regional militias who did the majority of the fighting against Qaddafi’s forces during the revolution. 3. (Source Comment: Inthe opinion of a very sensitive source, the French Government ‘and business leaders actually expected to receive thirty five (35) per cent of now economic development in Libya after the fall of Qaddafi. Like many Wester businessmen, these French ‘officials made informal agreements with former Prime Minister Mahmoud Jibril and his advisors, only to see these agreements ignored or delayed when Abdurrahim el-Kelb became head of government in October 2011, Ia their opinion, once el-Keib moved the government from the Eastern city of Benghazi to the national capital at Tripoli, the government became inefficient and inaccessible. These individuals also believe thatthe appointment of Minister of Oil Abdulrakman Ben Yezza, who was « long timo official ofthe Italian Oil Company (END), ‘was afactor. According to these sources, the bulk of ENI's oilfields are in the Western part of Libya, and Ben Yezza focused his ettentions on that region, whi filing to effectively organize now business East of Benghazi. These same officials state thatthe influences of the Western tnilitaa, partioulaly those from the Zintan region, have weakened the influence of the Eastern Eiders.) 4. An extremely sensitive source stated thet the DGSE and SIS intend to control the ‘move toward a semi-autonomous state under @ federal system. However, they have been surprised by e-Kei's intention expressed both in public and in secret meetings with Minister of Defense Ousama al Juwali «native of Zintan, to use force to hold the country together. El-Kelb is also committed to Ben Yezza, although he isfrustrted by the chaotic sitsation in Tripoli. Thi atmosphere affects new business for the most part and has boen extremely irritating for businessmen from France and other Western countries. 5, (Source Comment: In the opinion of a well placed source with access to the former royal family (al Seoussi), while these Western officals are focused on working around the chaotic business situation, they are risking a civil war, filing to recognized the longstanding and ‘complicated relationship between the Eastem and Western parts of the country. Qaddafi, as an absolute dictator, suppressed these differences, which have reemerged with his defeat and death. In addition, el-Keib is talking to old acquaintances in the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, in an cffort to apply their influence to the Eastern tribal Elders, and help hold the country together.) ae frome Sullivan Jacob J Sent: Friday, March 9, 2012 921 AM To: # Subject: RE: H: France & UK behind Libya breakup. Sid Definitely. can share around i you hike, but it saems lke a thin conspiracy theory. ‘Prom: H [melito:HOR22@cintonemsl. com] Sent: Friday, March 09, 2012 7:40 AM ‘To: Suttvan, Jecnb 3 Sadbjects Fer: H: France & UK behind bya breakup. Sid ‘This one strains credulity. What do you think? From: te AL ‘Sent: Thursday, "2012 06:50 PM To:H ‘Subject: H: France & UK behind Libya breakup, Sk ‘March 8, 2012 For Hillery From: Re; France & UK behind Libya breakup SOURCE: Sourvee with drect acceas tothe Libyan National Tranetional Courell, as wel asthe highest levels of European Governments, the Egypllan Muaim Brotherhood, and Westem inteligence and securty sorices, 4. During the period between mid-tanuary 2012 to March 2012 ofcers of te a French General Decora fr Exiomel Seourty{ Dresion Gtnérala de ia Séouré Extéreure ~ DGSE}, andthe Bris Secret inteligance Sendo (Bisa) achveted longstanding contacts with bal and civic leaders in Eaotan Libya, In an effort o encourage em oeesich a sembautonomous Zone Inthe historic provinee of Cyrenaica (Bargain Arable). According to extromely eestaugaatie couroas sofort was insted by advisors to French Present Nenolas Sarkozy aftr complains for) knowecae geht busts feaders thatthe new Libyan Government was not rewarding apprapristoly French ems for te ynar al Qaddafi, StS joined in Oy ne French and Brileh business and intelligence officials believe that a semi-autonomous regime in the aol cy of Bonga! wil be able to organize bushness opportunities in tht region. This in tam wil alow frase Freer rtp nilate new business projects. These same officials beleve that there Is lo reduced threat from vena nlite inthe East According fo a knowedgeable eouroe, French officals believe tht this situation isthe natural ee itat oF Kalbe falure to orgenize the country and disarm the ethnic and regional miltias who did the majority ofthe fighting against Qaddafs forces during the revolution. 3, (Source Comment: In the opinion ot avery sensitive source, the French Goverment and business ass scl cpt rca iy (5) pt a ta ST yaar 0 fall of Qaddafl Lika ‘many West Se ee hese French offeials made informal agreements with former Prine Mister Mahmoud Jor tras evecr an an Roe ornare ye tn AD ye sgh oh eo! and his advo on het oplnon, once ol-Kelb moved te government ram to Essar cy of Banghaz to the national coptal at Triple government ecame Iefcient and Inaccossbo, These Indivuals algo beley® Cote capa ia Vnnir of Gl Abcuiraman Bon Yezza, who wees lng ie ofl the talon Oi Company (SY), es appointment dng wo trebe sources, the bk of ENT ol fake aren tre Weatem pat of Libye, and Bon Yezza teed aoa aoe st ravion, wile fang to afectvely organize now buaness East of Benghazi These same ocle denims enn tn, ow fom tm Zt ee Pe ws Eastam Elders.) MAT an extreme sonakive source stated thatthe GSE and SiS Jntand to control the move foward a sen, sutonor on sats undies federal wyatem. However, they have beer surprised By et Xeb'sinterion, expressed Dott in suntc and’ secret meetings with Minar of Detonge Cusama ala «nate of Zita, f wee force 9 To aaa spar Es Kamo Ie alno corned Ban Yazza though hei uetraed by te chaotic aluaion In Treo) hie fret paw business forte moat part and haa been extremely iting for buslneesmen from France anc ‘other Westem counres. 1s"teoures Comment: Inte opinion ofa wel paced wourea with access tothe former royal family (ff Seren), wile thoae Wieetem oflls are focused on working around the chaotic busines sus, thay ae risking @ cv war, Tene te recognized the longstanding and competed reiationahp between the Exstem and Western part of he terre CGacken, me on absaki cldator, suppressed thee dfforances,vbich have reemerged wih hie defeat and ene moh ekKab fs taking o od acquaintances in the Egypten Musim Brother, In an effort to apply ther Influence to the Exatem tribal Eiders, and help hold the county together.) From: Sullivan, Jacob J ‘Sent: ‘Tuesday, Apri 3, 2012 6:49 PM Tor H Subject: FW: Latest from HRC’s contact mM ‘ery Interesting report. 8 chance, | mat with or insightful Libyan politics FSN in Benghnlvesierday ‘and we discussed Thelmb'selectoral prospects. He didn't think they would have a large following b/c they don't have 9 strong saeco dd empheste, though, thatthe Federalist movement has widespread fupportin the east and wil aera up the ante with Tipo, Inchding possibly making armove on the ol production in that part ofthe country {(AGOCO, a large state-owned oll company, Is based In Benghaz). ~ Chris seu ‘This emall is UNCLASSIFIED —Original Message— From: Sullvan, JecobJ Sent: Tuesday, April 03, 2012 12:44 PM To: Fottman, Jeffrey D; Cretz, Gene A; Stevens, John C Subject: Latest from HAC's contact Below s the latest report from HRC's contact; would be interested in your reactions. SOURCE: Sources with direct access tothe Libyan National Transitional Counc, as well as the highest levels of European CGevernments the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, and Western intelligence and security services. x. During the last week of March 2012, the leaders of the National Transitional Council (NTC) regime in bye discussed the raleg popularity and independence ofthe Libyan Musi Brotherhood (LMB) in preparation forthe national parliamentary elections scheduled for July 2012. ‘according to. source with dect accesso these dscuslons, President Mustafa Abdel al state in very dtect fers that he ees the emergence of the LMB as 2 majorfactor Inthe upcoming elections, which are already complicated by the Federalist movement for the semi-autonomous status ofthe histori Eastern byan region of ‘Oyrenalca (Barga In Arabic) . Iainister of Defense Ousama alduwal and Prime Minister Abdurrahim el Kelb both believe thatthe rise ofthe LMB, stnich was relatively minor member ofthe NTC uni November 2021, i in fac, related tothe Fedralst movernent Eastern Libya. ‘According to al Juwall¢ native ofthe Western Lbyan region of Zintan, the LMB Is drawing strength from peoplewho fear that the Federalist movement In Barqa will esut in that reglon dominating the country, gaining controtof an CS Tor hs par Jal stated that he agrees with Oll Minister Abdulrahman Ben Yerza that if matters are not resolved bythe July elections, the unsettled nature ofthe politcal process n Libya wil damage the countr'simage asa business partner and confuse foreign reactivate existing agreements. 2 a ‘According to 2 sensitive source, while discussing this matter. ‘with Dr Abd a-Nasser Shomata, the head of the Crisis ‘Management Unit in the NTC, Prime Minister el Kelb stated that the most problematic aspect of the rise of the LMB Is ‘the leadership role taken by Islamist mila leader General Abdel Hakim Alamin Belha}. in me {n the opinion of this source, the NTC leadership sees Belhal as one: ‘of the greatest threats to the long term success Of thal agi. SSS ’A iawall laa notes that Betha isthe head ofthe founding committee forthe tM tustce nd Construction Party UCP) asthe Federalt moverent took holdin erty March 2012, alia under Instruction from el Keb and Jal, met — ran belha and other Western militia leaders to arrange for thelr support in the event military foree is needed to hokd = the countrytogether. Belha] represented the most aftective of the Western mits. 3 ‘According to the Minister of Defense, this situation with the Federalist movement enhanced Balha}'s prestige at the time he was working to secure a leadership role In the UMB and the JCP. Ei Kelb and Jail are concerned that, despite the fact that the LMB imited base after years of suppression by the regime of former dictator Muammar al ‘Gaddafi, they will appeal to those Ubyans who believe that the NTC regime is: under the Influence of the United States and Western Europe. “The activities of Belha] in both the LMB and the JCP reinforce this view. Il inds this situation frustrating, particularly n the light of his regular assurances that Libya would operate under Istamic law, and while maintaining appropriate ties to the West, will remain | hostile to israel. 4, (Source Comment: Ina pevate conversation, Jal stated that he fs working to balance the Internal politcal realities of Libya against the ‘concerns of the international business community. ‘The Presklent is concerned that the appointment of BenYezzs #s Ol Minister in October 2011 provided the JCP with tangible concern ta use against NTC candidates during the July elections. ‘After his long experience as a senlor official of the ‘Muttinational ttallan Of Firm EN, Ben Yezzals viewed by Belhaj and ‘many members of the LMB as a symbol of the Issue they will pursue in the national election, the idea that NTC, like the Qaddafi, regime is corrupt and involved in allowing | foreign interests to control the nation’s mineral wealth. ‘That sald, Jalll continues to: with el Keib that Ben Yezza Is an excellent administrator, and In the long run will play ‘an important role n effectively managing the nation's mineral weatth,) 5. ‘According to an extremely sensitive source, Jalil and his advisors ‘have been in contact with Supreme Guide Mohamed Badie, the leader of the much larger and more powerful Egyptian | ‘Muslim Brotherhood (—EMB). ‘This contact Is largely based on the President's need to address reports he has received that the LMB is reaching out to —— 7 ‘Badle and his advisors for support. ‘This effort ls particularly Important given the belief among | NTC leaders that the EMB and its Freedom and Justice Party (FIP} will control the Government of Egypt as that country moves’ to civilian rule later in 2012. in the opinion of this ‘souice,Badle Is sympathetic to Jali's postion, especially since the Libyan President and el Kelb were members ofthe EMB during their student days in Egypt. ‘The Supreme Guide will, according to Jalil, work to influence the LMB to ‘establish a cooperative effort with the NTC. Badle wl polnt out the fact tha his ably to cooperate with oth the Supreme: Cound 2 wwollas the Salat al Nour party, helped estabish the EMG as the dominant potica fore i Egypt, while avolding high levels of violence. 6 {Source Comment: An extremely sensitive source within the EMB ‘agreed that Badie and Jalil have spoken in an effort to develop 2 plan to deal with the LMB.