You are on page 1of 17

critical to the formulation of improved security policy for Africa. in view of the challenges involved. regional. It has grown from being a simple but important idea. researchers. Secondly. is a critical component of our ability to consistently stay ahead of the most important security-related developments in Africa. and communities across Africa that have granted TSA the access and interviews needed to undertake research. it has become a leader in political and strategic risk identification and management for Africa. graphic and web designers for their important contribution. However. . the willingness of key stakeholders to measure their performance and effectiveness is increasingly going to determine security conditions in Africa (and even beyond). ADUNOLA ABIOLA Founder & CEO Think Security Africa TSA is now the global leader in foreasting security trends in Africa and strategic planning. and it ultimately helps me to determine whether the results and impact we are having warrants the ongoing existence of TSA. institutions. contributors. !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"#$%&'(!")*&'( THINK SECURITY AFRICA Since Think Security Africa started in 2009. Firstly. to being a repository of continent-wide foresight. this is something that adds value to calculations made by a relatively small group of national. Especially those that have been openminded and understanding of the important.Introduction Think Security Africa 2015 Annual Report FROM LOCAL TO GLOBAL Since Think Security Africa (TSA) was established. the fact that TSA is an independent organisation has given us the freedom to develop new and critical methods and specialisations. I would like to thank all the governments. Our annual report is usually an internal exercise to assist us in determining whether or not we are fulfilling our founding objectives. it is important for our website users to understand the import of what they are reading or viewing. as well as investors. Extensive field experience across several countries. whilst being in a small field already saturated by experienced players. and global policymakers. impersonal and rising stakes (increasingly transcending national interests) involved in the work that we do. and I would like to be the change that I wish to see. it has risen to the formidable task of making a tangible contribution to badly needed debate on security developments in Africa. I would also like to thank all advisers. Starting a new orgnaisation was not a decision that I took lightly. groups. The rationale behind making our annual report public this year is two-fold. officials.

to 7 in 2013. as it is a security one. 46% This grew by one.Security in Africa There is a rise in the number of countries impacted by conflict in Africa. The issue of conflict (and other violence) is as much a developmental issue. This is occuring alongside a global economic slowdown.20 years. The number of Africans living in abject poverty is roughly equal to the number of Africans living in violence-hit countries. which may result in the decline of badly needed investment. 10 2014 The number of countries grew further in 2014. 6 7 2012 2013 In 2012 there were 6 African countries impacted by conflict. as many African governments have articulated plans to become middle-income countries in the next 5 . . This is most worrisome. RESPONDING PROACTIVELY Supporting existing efforts to inculcate a more proactive response to security management in Africa. 46% of Africa’s population is currently living in a country impacted by serious conflict. is the essence of what we do at Think Security Africa.

20% 70% NATIONAL SECURITY ARMED GROUPS 10% REGIONAL SECURITY / TERRORISM .the accuracy of our headline assessments is 91%. pdf. 10% of the resources on the website relate to either regional security issues or terrorism. well before they are needed.TSA’sResearchFocus At Think Security Africa we specialise in forecasting security-related trends in Africa. We have a demonstrated record of providing foresight on the most important security related developments across Africa. photographic. ACCURACY TIMELINESS RELEVANCE REPORTS 94% 100% 100% BLOGS 88% 100% 100% PRESENTATIONS 100% 100% 100% OUR RESULTS Our forecasts have a 100% score for both timeliness and relevance. and presentation format. OUR RESEARCH FOCUS We have hundreds of resources on the Think Security Africa website in html. 20% of the downloadable resources. Overall. . In the six years since we started we have built a solid track record of doing this effectively. are related to armed groups operating in Africa. video. The vast majority of our resources relate to national issues. and account for 70% of the resources on our website.

2015 6 Continents TSA research featured across six continents . and social engagement. to becoming a globally recognised organisation in six years. & relevance. timeliness. USAGE - RELIABILITY The extent to which our resources are used. the reliability of our resources. visitor numbers The reliability of our resources. GLOBAL REACH SOCIAL The geographic spread and reach of our message Social interaction with our resources THINK SECURITY AFRICA TIMELINE 2009-10 2011 2012-13 2014 Start-up Registration Project Evolution Feature Creation of an organisational blueprint Formal registration in England & Wales Development of projects and resources Feature in UNESCO’s Culture of Peace in Africa project THINK SECURITY AFRICA Has evolved from being an idea.Measuring Impact In the six years since Think Security Africa started. the reach of our message. Measured by accuracy. We have chosen to use downloads vs. We measure our organisation’s impact by the extent of resource usage. we have developed metrics by which we assess the extent to which are are fulfilling our founding objectives.

UTILISATION .

D$+0.$.-+.-%+.$-2$>-9#.526%70802/9.567%86-#' 9.-(.$+/$+0.&$ $ +C>7:% !"# >&(-+2&6$4#10.+2<(.&7$C-2&66.1#'$&($!"-23$4#10.#'+0.+*#1('7$!"-'$-'$ $/+66+?#:$@.$F9.567%86-#' $ $ $G$C066$&2:$A&.-(-#'$-2$A+'($E#%+60(-+2&...1"$+2$>&(-+2&6$4#10./.$IJ'($KLJM $ .%:.6#<$'#($+/$/&1(+..#'+0.$F9.-(.:$-2$("-'$1&(#9+.%2-.)-2#$2&(-+2&6$'#10.-(.NationalSecurityDownloads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egionalSecurityDownloads !"#$%&'$(#)*(+).#(43(1"3%(1914"12")(%*(#$)(!I<(1*/(LMN>O<(0)234#)36(8)1*4*'(#$1#(0)(/%(*%#($19) ((((.)'4%*1"(3)-&.5..4#5(4*(!.-$(1*/(133)338)*#(%*(1*/(%..#41"(/%0*"%1/3(&+(#%(J15(CB3#(@ABK ( ( HH(?$43(..(>)-&. !"()$'' !"#$%&' <=1>+& =%. .-)(4*#)*349)6(13(#$)5(4*9%"9)():#)*349)(.)3%&.4#5(4*(!.@.438(1*/(!.)+%.:46.( +.

"1-.2 345/672%*7.%#A"'3(.-<+."5#-/#872"(.#' 879."+#-."+9#.-<%6=.-<=.+#+"(.%#.-<%6=."1-."1-."5+#)-#1(-&.#' BC-5/7-%*+#31#)-#DE+)#./2#%'(-++#8.#+$-()#-/"01%2"#'-3/)(4#+"'3(.)4# :&"(&./2#+"'3(."5# # *FBC<!"# @.)4#:&"(&.2"(..(.>3"#A"'3(.*"0(%/2./01.)4#:&"(&.*"+#-/ )$"#5.'%9 *+.#' ?-+.)4#-&"(&.3=+>?@ :3(#'-3/)(4#+"'3(.2"(.).-*./%774#@.%#A"'3(.>3"#'-6"+# +"'-/*?#%/*#.2 !>&/672%*7./#)$./01.+#)$"#6-+)#*-5/7-%*"*#.*"#+./00-1+234/5-6072/845-9:0/:80.%9## # %&' !"#$ ABC6* 872"(.)4#'-/*.CountryOverviewDownloads !"#$%&"#'("%)"*#%#+"(."-.%4#FGEH# # # # # .-/+#1("&%./01.)4#-&"(&.:."5# # $%# &'( )*+.7."5 ()% 6D19E<.2 $@!/672%*7."-.617"#23.

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rmedGroupsDownloads !"#$#%&$#%&%$'(')*%)+.-.+1(%')%2/$'3&4%!"#5%&$#%).)%.07 !"#%.77.

! RELIABILITY .

South Sudan & Burundi from 02/15. Voting patterns were in line with expectations. there were reports of a high-level rescue effort. The Chibok girls are yet to be rescued. 2 major African terrorist groups joined ISIS. 06/14 Highlighted the importance of diplomacy as the most important tool in combating violence in the DRC. In 10/14. This occurred in Nigeria. 04/14 Rescue efforts unlikely to be successful. 02/15 Daoukro declaration was made in support of this. There have since been deadly attacks in Bamako and other towns. 01/15 Amidst rising conflict preserving stability in Africa should result in the postponement of elections. 04/15 foreign shop owners were in essence attacked for their relative capability. Subsequently women were rescued. 04/14 Failure to engage nationalists in the North. 05/14 Focused on the need to maintain cohesion between the RDR & PDCI parties for ongoing stability. Accurate " Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ SECURITY PROFILE KENYA DRC & NEIGHBOURS BRIEFING IVORY COAST 08/14 Likely rise in insurgent-like activity in Kenya. Subsequently. 02/15 Projected the rising influence of ISIS & expressed concern that efforts to counter extremism could fuel it. However. the outcome was not in line with our projection.NIGERIA’S 2015 ELECTIONS RISING TERRORISM SECURITY IN AFRICA 2014 03/15 Free & Fair elections likely to produce no clear winner. Accurate ! Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ Accurate n/a Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ MALI BRIEFING BRING BACK OUR GIRLS 04/14 Highlighted the importance of skill vs. Hallmarks have become clear in Garissa. could create more space for extremism to flourish. CAR. Mandera & Wajir counties. in view of the countries 9 neighbouring states. money for a more equal society. Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ INEQUALITY SOUTH AFRICA .

From 05/13 Niger has been attacked on 3 fronts & has become more reliant on external partnerships.14 the number of serious African conflicts rose from 7 to 10. between 2013 . Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ OIL. GAS & SECURITY SECURITY IN NIGERIA FDI & INSECURITY 09/11 Rising oil & gas states may result in maritime disputes & civil unrest. 2012-14 there were 3 new maritime disputes. 06/12 Raised concerns about contagion from across the region. They were removed following protests. Patterns persisted in South Sudan and Sudan. Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ SECURITY PRIORITES EGYPT . 05/12 Ability to deliver on economic needs would decide the fate of Muslim Brotherhood gov’t. up 12% from the previous year. 45% of African states were seriously impacted by border insecurity. Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ Accurate ✓ Relevant ✓ Timely ✓ BORDER SECURITY SECURITY IN NIGER 07/12 Assessed the urgent need to improve border security. In 2015 French military engagement encompasses operations across the Sahel. 10/10 Assessed investment trends in conflict-impacted countries. & against Boko Haram. CAR. Nigeria is fighting to reverse an existential Salafist threat & maintain economic stability. 06/11 Warned about the rise of extremists & rising regional oil production. & civil unrest over oil occurred in Chad & Niger. Subsequently. more than ideological solidarity.SECURITY IN AFRICA 2013 MAKING IT IN AFRICA FRANCE IN AFRICA 03/14 Warned of the urgent need to take concerted efforts to prevent conflict. 09/13 Volume of young Africans & unemployment could combine to create serious national & regional problems. 12/12 French plans to retreat from Africa militarily unlikely to succeed. By 2014. It didn’t envisage the scale of drownings off North Africa. and conditions under which ongoing FDI inflows persist.

REACH .

.

SOCIAL .

! Copyright © 2015. All Rights Reserved . Think Security Africa ltd.