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Aeronautics Executive MBA Econonics of Transport

Aeronautics Executive MBA Econonics of Transport

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Aeronautics Executive MBA

Economia de Transporte

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

A. B. C. D. F. G. H. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Custos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia e Intermodalidade Ferrovia Marítimo Aéreo Ambiente Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

A. B. C. F. G. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia, Ferrovia e Intermodalidade Marítimo Aéreo Externalidades Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

Global GDP, 2002

34,2%

32,3%

United States Japan Germany Other G7 Rest of the world
12,3% 6,1%

15,1%

Share of Global GDP Growth, 1995-2002

25 20 15 10 5 0 China US Other Asia EU Japan Rest of the World

World GDP per Capita, 2000 ($US)

Not Available Less than $2,000 $2,000 to $5,000 $5,000 to $12,000 $12,000 to $20,000 More than $20,000

Share of Asia in World Trade, 1980-2003

28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 Exports Imports

10

15

20

25

30

World Exports of Merchandise, 1950-2005

Changes in the Value World’s Merchandise Trade, Production and GDP, 1950-2004 (in %)

-10

0

5

-5

19 50

Value (Trillions of Current $US)
10 11 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

19 53

19 56

World GDP

19 59

Value Share

19 62

19 65

Total Merchandise Trade

19 68

World Merchandise Production

19 71

19 74

19 77

19 80

19 83

19 86

19 89

19 92

19 95

19 98

0

2

4

6

8

20 01

20 04

Share of World GDP (%)

10

12

14

16

World’s 10 Largest Exporters and Importers, 2004
Belgium Canada United Kingdom Italy Netherlands France Japan China United States Germany 0 200 400 600 800 1.000 1.200 1.400 1.600
Imports Exports

Billions of $US

Share of World Goods Exports, Selected Countries, 1950-2004
20,0% 18,0% 16,0% 14,0% 12,0% 10,0% 8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0%
19 65 19 71 19 77 19 50 19 53 19 56 19 59 19 62 19 68 19 74 19 89 19 92 19 95 19 98 19 80 19 86 19 83 20 01 20 04

United States Japan Germany China Saudi Arabia

Value of Chinese Exports and Received FDI, 1983-2004 (Billions of $US)

600 500 400 Exports 300 Exports FDI

70 60 50 40 30 FDI 20 10 0
19 85 19 87 19 95 19 93 19 97 19 99 19 89 19 91 20 03 20 01

200 100 0
19 83

Trade by Ocean, 1995

1995

1990

Pacific Atlantic Other

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Core / Periphery Division of the World

Periphery Semi-Periphery Core

Poles of the Global Economy

Western Europe North America East Asia Economies
Underdeveloped Developing Newly Industrializing Advanced Oil Export / Rent

“Platform” Corporation

Distribution R&D Marketing / Retail

Platform

Manufacturers

Share of Containerized Cargo in Global Trade, 1980-2000

800 700 600 Million tons 500 400 300 200 100 0

Containerized Cargo Other General Cargo

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

International Trade and Transportation Chains

International Trade

A
Origin
Assembly Trade barrier

B
Destination
Disassembly

Transport Chain
Rail Maritime Transshipment Customs Road

A

B

Modal Profile of Freight Transportation, United States Mode
Truck

Value
Moderate to high

Volume

Service

Distance
Driver can go 500 miles per day. 2/3 of tonnage carried over less than 100 miles.

Loads of less than 50,000 lbs. On-time performance above 90%. Multiple car loads. No weight restrictions. No weight restrictions.

Rail

Moderate to low

4 to 7 days delivery time. 60 to Average haul length between 85% on-time performance. 600 and 800 miles. 3 days for cross country. Ontime performance between truck and rail. Normally overnight or second day. Varies according to segment. Competitive with rail. Average haul between 700 and 1,500 miles. More than 1,300 miles.

Intermodal

Moderate to high

Air

High

Small. Most loads less than 100 lbs. Bulk shipments.

Inland Water

Moderate to low

Between 250 and 1,600 miles.

Coastal Water

Moderate to low

Containers, general freight and bulk shipments. Mainly containers and bulk shipments. Bulk shipment of liquids and gazes.

Function of distance. Between Between 500 and 2,000 miles. 2 to 5 days. 7 to 10 days trans-Atlantic and More than 2,600 miles. trans-Pacific routes. According to demand. 0 to 20 mph. 825 miles average distance for crude oil.

International Water Pipeline

High to low

Low

Economic Benefits of Efficient Transportation

Direct Transport Supply • Income from transport operations (fares and salaries) Access to wider distribution markets and niches

Direct Transport Demand • • • • •

Indirect Microeconomic Rent income Lower price of commodities Higher supply of commodities

Indirect Macroeconomic • Formation of distribution networks Attraction and accumulation of economic activities Increased competitiveness Growth of consumption Fulfilling mobility needs

Improved • accessibility • Time and cost savings • Productivity gains Division of labor Access to a wider range of suppliers and consumers Economies of scale

• • •

The Share of Transportation in the GDP, United States 2000

24,3%

24,2%

6,9% 14,6% 7,0%

Housing Health Care Food Transportation-related Education Recreation Other

10,8%

12,2%

Employment in Transportation Occupations, United States, 1985-2001

5.000 4.500 4.000 3.500 Thousands 3.000 2.500 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 1985 1990 1995 2001 Water transportation Rail transportation Motor vehicle operators Public transportation attendants Air transportation

Transport Impacts on Economic Growth

Transport Improvements

Commodity Market

Labor Market

Expansion

New Activities

Growth

Transportation and the Economy

Transport Infrastructure Investment Additional Transport Capacity, Efficiency, Reliability and Level of Service Lower Transport Costs

Shorter Transit Times

Business Expansion

Increased Productivity

Increased Competitiveness

Economic Growth

Economic Production and Specialization
Self Reliance

Region A

Region B

Regional Trade Trade and Transport

International Trade
Product A Product B Product C Product D Product E

Trade and Transport

Gateway

A. B. C. D. F. G. H. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Custos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia e Intermodalidade Ferrovia Marítimo Aéreo Ambiente Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

A. B. C. F. G. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia, Ferrovia e Intermodalidade Marítimo Aéreo Externalidades Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

Ton-Miles of Freight Transported within the United States, 1975-2000 (millions)

4.000.000 3.500.000 3.000.000 2.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0

Air Water Pilelines Truck Rail

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

30

Market Share by Freight Transport Mode, Western Europe, 1980-2002 (in ton-km)

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Inland Waterways Road Rail

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2002

Market Share by Freight Transport Mode, United States, 1980-2000 (in ton-miles)

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

Water Truck Rail

1980

1985

1990

1995

1999

Growth Factors in Transport Demand

Quantity of Passengers or Freight

Passengers Freight Growth in production and consumption Income growth

Pa

g en ss

o er

s -km on rt

Industrial relocation Economic specialization Suburbanization

KM

Average Distance

Share of Total Domestic Freight Activity by Mode, G7 Countries, 1996

100%

% of total domestic metric ton-km

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States

Road Rail Oil Pipeline Water Air

Share of Total Domestic Passenger Activity by Mode, G7 Countries, 1996

100%

% of total domestic passenger-km

80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Canada France Germany Italy Japan United Kingdom United States

Rail Road Air

Transportation Modes

Road
•Local

Rail
•International

Air
•Global

Maritime
•Global

•Speed

•Capacity

•Speed

•Capacity

•Price

•Price

•Value

•Price

Modal Shares of U.S.-NAFTA-Partner Merchandise Trade by Value and Weight, 2004

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Truck Rail Pipeline Air Water Other and unknown Value Weight

Classic Transport Demand / Supply Function

Cost Demand D

Elasticity =

T 2 − T1 C 2 − C1

Supply

S1 Equilibrium

S2

C1 C2 T1 T2
Traffic

Performance Comparison for Selected Freight Modes Vehicle Capacity Barge Hopper car
1500 Tons 52,500 Bushels 453,600 Gallons 100 Tons 3,500 Bushels 30,240 Gallons 10,000 Tons 350,000 Bushels 3,024,000 Gallons 26 Tons; 910 Bushels 7,865 Gallons 9,000 for a tanker truck 5,000 TEU 300,000 tons 2 million barrels of oil

Truck Equivalency
57.7 (865.4 for 15 barges in tow)

3.8

100 car train unit

384.6

Semi-trailer truck

1

Post-panamax containership

2,116

VLCC

9,330

747-400F

124 tons

5

Passenger Transport by Mode, Japan, 1950-1999
1400 1200 Billions of Passenger Kilometers 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Airline Railway Bus Auto

Evolution of Chinese Freight Traffic, 1990-2000 (in million tons)

12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0 Highways Rail Waterways Pipelines & other 1990 2000

World Automobile Production and Fleet, 1965-2004

600 550 500

Fleet (millions)

450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100

Fleet Production

44 42 40 38 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16

Transportation and the Supply and Distribution Chain

19 65 19 67 19 69 19 71 19 73 19 75 19 77 19 79 19 81 19 83 19 85 19 87 19 89 19 91 19 93 19 95 19 97 19 99 20 01 20 03

Supplier

Customer

Supply
Transport

Activity

Distribution
Transport

Production (millions)

Components of Transport Cost

Transaction Costs

A

Friction of Distance

B

Shipment

Fixed and Operating Transport Costs

Mode Rail or Highway Pipeline Air Maritime

Fixed/Capital Costs Land, Construction, Rolling Stock Land, Construction Land, Field & Terminal Construction, Aircraft Land for Port Terminals, Cargo Handling Equipment, Ships

Operating Costs Maintenance, Labor, Fuel Maintenance, Energy Maintenance, Fuel, Labor Maintenance, Labor, Fuel

Different Friction of Distance Functions

1
Costs Zone Change Fixed Costs Distance

2

3
Transshipment Costs

4

Different Components of Transport Time
Time Transport Time Timing

Distance Punctuality Frequency

Freight Transportation Service Spectrum

High Air Cargo $1.5 / lbs Truck 5 - 10¢ / lbs Rail Intermodal 3¢ / lbs Rail Carload 1¢ / lbs Rail Unit 0.5 - 1¢ / lbs

Low Water 0.5¢ / lbs

Fastest, most reliable and most visible. Lowest weight, highest value and most timesensitive cargo.

Fast, reliable and visible. Range of weight and value. Rail intermodal competitive with truck over longer distances.

Slower, less reliable and less visible. Highest weight, lowest value and lest timesensitive cargo.

A. B. C. D. F. G. H. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Custos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia e Intermodalidade Ferrovia Marítimo Aéreo Ambiente Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

Network Structures

Centralized

Decentralized

Distributed

A. B. C. F. G. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia, Ferrovia e Intermodalidade Marítimo Aéreo Externalidades Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

Network Strategies to Service a Set of Locations

A

B

C

D

E

F

Absolute and Relative Distance in a Network

10 km

30 minutes

Evolution of Logistical Integration, 1960-2000 Demand Forecasting Purchasing Requirements Planning Production Planning Manufacturing Inventory Warehousing Materials Handling Packaging Inventory Distribution Planning Order Processing Transportation Customer Service Physical Distribution Information Technology Marketing Strategic Planning Logistics Materials Management

1980s

1990s 2000s
Supply Chain Management

Commodity Chain

Parts and raw materials

Manufacturing and assembly

Distribution

Bulk shipping High volumes Low frequency

Unit shipping Transport Chain Average volumes High frequency

LTL shipping Low volumes High frequency Market

Market

Stage Flows

Product Life Cycle

Monopoly
rs ito et p om

Competition

C

Sales

Inno vati ng f irm
Decline of production

Idea

Promotion

First competitors

Mass production

Research and development Stage 1

Growth Stage 2

Maturity Stage 3

Decline Stage 4

Producer-Driven and Buyer-Driven Global Commodity Chains

Producer-Driven Commodity Chains Drivers of Global Commodity Chains Core Competencies Barriers to Entry Economic Sectors Typical Industries Ownership of Manufacturing Firms Main Network Links Predominant Network Structure Industrial Capital Research & Development; Production Economies of Scale

Buyer-Driven Commodity Chains Commercial Capital Design; Marketing Economies of Scope

Consumer Durables; Intermediate Consumer Nondurables Goods; Capital Goods Automobiles; Computers; Aircraft Apparel; Footwear; Toys Transnational Firms Local Firms, predominantly in developing countries Trade-based Horizontal

Investment-based Vertical

The Automobile Supply Chain

Supplying industries
Steel and other metals Rubber Electronics Plastic Glass Textiles

Bodies
Manufacture and stamping of body panels Body assembling and painting

Components
Manufacture of mechanical and electrical components (wheels, tires, seats, breaking systems, windshields, exhausts, etc.)

Final Assembly

Consumer market

Engines and transmissions
Forging and casting of engine and transmission components Machining and assembly of engines and transmissions

Cereals Supply Chain

Extraction
Farm
Grain

Manufacturing
Processing Facility
Cereal

Distribution and Retailing
Packaged Cereal

Converter
Wood Pulp

Paperboard

Packaging

Distributor
Packaged Cereal

Store

Wood Pulp Mfg

Wood Pulp

Label Mfg

Labels

Logistics Operations

nd Ha

ling

Pa

cka g

ing

Transportation Production Scheduling Purchase

Demand

Wa re

ho

usi n

g

Pu rc P r has oc e e s Or sin de g rs
Sa les

Ma

ck t Sto emen nag

Logistics and Integrated Transport Demand

Materials Management
Derived Demand Induced Demand

Logistics (Integrated Demand)

Physical Distribution

Value-Added Functions of Logistics

Production

Location

Logistics

Control

Time

Changes in the Relative Importance of Logistical Functions in Distribution Systems

Demand Driven Inventory Transport System Information System Supply Driven

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Total Logistics Costs Tradeoff

Total Logistics Costs
Costs

Warehousing Costs Transport Costs

Shipment Size or Number of Warehouses

Logistical Improvements, Manufacturing Sector, 1960-2000

20 18 16 14 % of GDP 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Logistics Costs (% GDP) Inventory Costs (% GDP) Cycle Time Requirements (days)

40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Days

Worldwide Logistics Costs, 2002

6%

4%

39% 24%

Transportation Warehousing Inventory Carrying Order Processing Administration

27%

Logistics Costs and Economic Development

Agriculture Argentina Brazil Kenya

Mining Poland

Industry

Services

Information

Logistics Costs / GNP

Ukraine Belgium Canada Japan United States

Singapore

Economic Development

Average Order Lead Times of European Manufacturers, Wholesalers, and Retailers

25 20 15 10 5 0 1985

Days

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Third and Fourth Party Logistics Providers

3PL
Modes Distribution Centers Management
Parts and Raw Materials Manufacturers

4PL
Consumers

3PL 3PL 3PL

Retailers

Services Offered by Third Party Logistics Providers

Standard Warehouse management Transportation Dispatching Delivery documentation Customs documentation

Advanced Assembly Packaging Returns Labeling Stock accounting

Complete Order planning and processing IT management Invoicing Payment collection

Forward and Reverse Distribution

Recyclers

Collectors

Forward Channel Reverse Channel

Characteristics of Large-scale Distribution Centers

Size Facility

Larger One storey; Separate loading and unloading bays Large lot

More throughput and less warehousing. Sorting efficiency.

Land

Parking space for trucks; Space for expansion. Constant movements (pick-up and deliveries) in small batches (often LTL); Access to corridors and markets. Less than 48 hours service window. Sort parcels; Control movements from receiving docks to shipping dock; Management systems controlling transactions.

Accessibilit Proximity to highways y Market IT Regional / National Integration

Consumers

Producers

Distributors

Suppliers

Cross-Docking Distribution Center Distribution Center Suppliers
Suppliers LTL

Before Cross-Docking

Customers

Receiving Sorting Shipping
TL Cross-Docking DC TL

After Cross-Docking

Customers

Logistics Networks

Network Structure
Point to Point Hub-and-spoke

Locations
Clustered

Dispersed

Logistics and E-commerce

Supply chain DC Traditional Logistics

Supply chain

E-Retailer

DC

E-Logistics

Retailer

Customers

Customers

City Logistics

DC

Central City

U rb an

Te rm

in al

Gateways and Hubs

Gateway

Hub

Corridor

Modal Gateways Land
Logistics

Manufacturing Border

Air

Maritime

A. B. C. D. F. G. H. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Custos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia e Intermodalidade Ferrovia Marítimo Aéreo Ambiente Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

A. B. C. F. G. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia, Ferrovia e Intermodalidade Marítimo Aéreo Externalidades Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

Modal Competition

Mode

Infrastructure / Route

Market Area

B

B

B

B

B

1

2 3

4

5 6

A

A

A

A

A

Modal Split in the United States by Passenger Travel Distance, 1995

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0,1 1 10 Distance in km 100 1000 10000 30 minutes walking Non-motorized Automobile Air 1 day driving

Principles of Modal Shift
hare

C

ve Advan omparati

tages

M Real

odal S

r Ove
are l Sh oda ed M

e anc form per

Integrated Transport Systems: From Fragmentation to Coordination

Factor Technology

Capital investments

Alliances and M & A

Commodity chains

Networks

Modal Share (A/B)
Inertia

ect Exp

U

ce man rfor rpe nde

Shift

Maturity

Time

Cause Containerization & IT

Consequence Modal and intermodal innovations; Tracking shipments and managing fleets Highs costs and long amortization; Improve utilization to lessen capital costs Easier contractual agreements; joint ownership Coordination of transportation and production (integrated demand) Multiplying effect

Returns on investments

Deregulation

Globalization

Consolidation and interconnection

Intermodal Transport Chain

Composition Interchange Connection

Local / Regional Distribution

Decomposition

National / International Distribution Transport Terminal

Piggyback and Doublestack Train Cars

Piggyback (TOFC)
40’ (12.2 m) 17’ (2.7 m) 9’ (2.7 m)

85’ (25.9 m)

18’ (5.5 m)

Doublestack (COFC)

65’ (19.8 m)

World Container Traffic, 1980-2005

350 300 250 Million TEU 200 150 100 50 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

American Intermodal Rail Traffic, 1999-2005

Millions

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Trailers Containers

Multimodal and Intermodal Transportation

Multimodal Point-to-Point Network A B
Rail Road

Intermodal Integrated Network A B C
Transshipment

C

D F E

D E

Transshipment

F

Multimodal Transport System
Distribution centers Articulation points

Nation
Terminals
Transshipment Handling

Region

Locality

Flows
Modal Function Intermodal Function Competition / Cooperation Maritime / Land interface

Average Length of Haul, Domestic Freight in the United States, 1960-2003 (in miles)

2000 1800 1600 1400 1200 Miles 1000 800 600 400 200 0
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Air carrier Truck Rail Coastal

Average Length of Haul, Domestic Passenger Modes in the United States, 1960-2003 (in miles)

900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Air carrier, Bus, intercity Amtrak Commuter rail

Driving Forces of Containerization and Co-modal Transport

Containerization Unitization Standardization Management and coordination Control over cargo Cellular ships Gantry cranes Specialized terminals Transshipment productivity Modal integration Information System Land consumption Multi-rate structure

Mergers Intermodal operators

Logistics Deregulation

Multimodal Transportation

Containerized Cargo Flows along Major Trade Routes, 1995-2004 (in millions of TEUs)

2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1998 1995 0

11,8 10,2 8,8 7,2 5,6 5,2 4,0 3,3 3,3 3,5 5 3,9 4,5 3,5 4,1 3,9

4,3 7,3 6,1 5,9 3,6

8,4 4,9 4,2 4,0 2,2 2,9

5,6

1,8 3,0

1,7 2,9 Asia-USA USA-Asia Asia-Europe Europe-Asia USA-Europe Europe-USA

1,5 2,6 3,6

2,7

2,7 1,31,7

2,8 2,3 1,21,4 10 15 20 25 30 35

US Containerized Trade with Asia, 1996-2004 (in 1,000 TEUs)

18.000 16.000 14.000 12.000 10.000 8.000 6.000 4.000 2.000 0

Exports to Asia Imports from Asia

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

Distance, Modal Choice and Transport Costs

C1 Transport costs per unit Road

C2 C3

Rail

Maritime

D1

D2

Distance

Value Per Ton of U.S. Freight Shipments by Transportation Mode, 2002

Rail Pipeline Water Truck Truck and rail Parcel, U.S.P.S, or courier Air (incl. truck and air) Single modes Multiple modes All Modes 1 10 100

$198 $241 $401 $775 $1.480 $37.538 $88.618 $611 $4.892 $667

1.000

10.000

100.000

Intermodal Transportation Cost Function

C(T)
Local / Regional Distribution Cost National / International Distribution Cost

Decomposition Connection

C(dc) C(cn)

Costs

C(I) C(cn) Composition C(cp)

Interchange Connection

Origin

Transshipment

Destination

Time and Cost of Transport Activities Involving Moving a 40 Foot Container between the American East Coast and Western Europe 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Moving container to consignee Storage at inland depot Unloading container at inland depot Road transport, port terminal to inland depot Clearance and inspection Tranfer from stack to road trailer Waiting in stack Transfer to stack Tranfer/unloading off ship Containership travel time (NY-Rotterdam) Transfer/loading onto ship Unstacking and transfer to terminal trailer Waiting in stack Transfer from road trailer to stack Waiting for admission to port terminal Road transport to port terminal Loading container on road trailer Container waiting for pickup after stuffing Moving container from loading ramp to storage

Time (hours) Cost ($US) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Cumulative Cost and Time of Moving a 40 Foot Container between the American East Coast and Western Europe
3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0 100 200 300 Cumulative time (hours) 400 500

Cumulative cost (US$)

Container Transport Costs

13% 23%

25% 18%

Ships Containers Terminals Inland Transport Other

21%

Container Transport Costs from Inland China to US West Coast ($US per TEU)

Land access to final destination (USA) Port handling (USA) Maritime transport Port handling (China) Land access to port (China)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Carrying Capacity of Containers (in cubic feet)

53 feet truck 53 feet hi-cube container 53 feet standard container 48 feet standard container 45 feet standard container 40 feet hi-cube container 40 feet standard container 20 feet standard container
0
1.169

4.090 3.955 3.830 3.471 3.026 2.690 2.385

500

1.000 1.500

2.000 2.500

3.000 3.500

4.000 4.500

World Rail Passenger Traffic, 1980-2004
2,200 2,000 1,800 Billions of passengers-km 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 0,800 0,600 0,400 0,200 0,000 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Asia America Africa and Middle East Europe Total Passengers-km

World Rail Freight Traffic, 1997-2004

8.000 7.000

Billions of tons-km

6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0

Asia America Africa and Middle East Europe

1997

1998

1999

2001

2002

2003

2004

Types of Rail Corridors

Type
Short distance

Function
Modal shift, improved capacity. Public transit Expand market area, reduce distribution costs & congestion Provide accessibility to a system of cities Long distance container flows, continuity for international trade Integrated global transport chains

Examples
Alameda, Panama

Hinterland access

PIDN, Virginia Inland port

Inter-metropolitan

Europe’s HST network

Landbridge

North America

Circum-hemispheric

Northern East-West Corridor

Comparison Between European and North American Railways

Issue

Europe Separation of infrastructure from operations (for accountancy purposes) Passenger oriented Mainly public with a few exceptions (e.g. UK) Short

North America Separation by region (markets) (private companies and concessions of vertical integrated companies) Freight oriented

Organisation

Market focus

Ownership

Private

Distances

Medium to long

113

114

A. B. C. D. F. G. H. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Custos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia e Intermodalidade Ferrovia Marítimo Aéreo Ambiente Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

A. B. C. F. G. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia, Ferrovia e Intermodalidade Marítimo Aéreo Externalidades Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

International Seaborne Trade and Exports of Goods, 1955-2004

9,0 8,0 7,0 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 1,0 0,0
19 76 19 85 19 55 19 58 19 61 19 94 19 64 19 67 19 88 20 00 20 03 19 73 19 79 19 82 19 70 19 91 19 97

Seaborne Trade (billions of tons of goods loaded) Exports of Goods (trillions of $US)

Domains of Maritime Circulation

Rhine / Danube Mississippi / Great Lakes / St. L awrence

Bosporus Suez Hormuz

Gibraltar
East / Southeast Asia

Panama

Nile

Bab el-Mandab Malacca

Amazon

Good Hope

Magellan

127

Types of Maritime Routes

Port-to-Port

Pendulum

Round-the-World

Evergreen Round-the-World Route, Westbound

New York Norfolk Charleston Los Angeles

Pusan Hong Kong Laem Chabang Columbo Thamesport Hamburg Rotterdam Zeebrugge Le Havre

Tokyo

Osaka Hakata Kaohsiung

Colon

Three Major Pendulum Routes Serviced by OOCL, 2006

Oakland Los Angeles

New York Norfolk Charleston

Hamburg Le Havre Rotterdam Southampton FosGeno a Barcelona

27 Days

Tokyo Ningbo Shanghai Kaohsiung Hong Kong Laem Chabang Singapore Port Kelang

39 Days

49 Days

Atlantic Express (ATX) European Union / Mediterranea n (EUM)
Note: Paths are approximate

South China Express (SCX)

Liner Transatlantic Crossing Times, 1838 – 1952 (in days)

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 1830 1855 1880 1905 1930 1955

Ton-km Shipped by Maritime Transportation, 1970-2004 (in billions)

2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1970

Oil Iron Ore Coal Grain Containers and other 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000

Maritime Traffic per Continent and Ocean, 1960-1990 p

31% 18%

Atlantic
60%

15%

Mediterranean
9%

13%

16% 10%

Pacific
15%

8%

Indian
3%

1960

28% 16% 15% 40% 8% 25% 6% 4% 8% 25% 15%

1990

Registered World Fleet, 1914-2000

600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000
Number of ships Total gross tonnage (1,000s) Average tonnage

7 Average Tonnage (in 1,000 tons) 6 5 4 3

200.000 100.000 0 1910

2 1 0 2000

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

Vessel Size Groups (in dead weight tons)

Handy Handymax Panamax Capesize Aframax Suezmax VLCC ULCC
0 50.000 100.000 150.000 200.000 250.000 300.000 350.000 400.000 450.000 500.000

Crude Oil Tankers Dry Bulk Carriers

Merchant Fleet of the World, Tonnage Registered per Ship Size, 1985-2000

600.000 500.000 400.000 Gross Tons 300.000 200.000 100.000 0 1985 1990 1995 2000 Over 100,000 50,000- 99,999 20,000- 49,999 10,000- 19,999 4,000-9,999 500-3,999 100-499

Operating Costs of Panamax and Post-panamax Containerships (in USD)

Millions

$16 $14 $12 $10 $8 $6 $4 $2 $0 Panamax (4,000 TEU) Post-panamax (10,000 TEU) Port charges Fuel Administration Stores and lubes Insurance Repair and maintenance Manning

Pendulum Services and Cabotage

Country 1 A
Pendulum Service

D

B
Cabotage

E

C

F Country 2

Maritime Shipping Characteristics
Tramping
Transportation Demand Number of shippers Quantity Density Unit value Regularity Few Large High (weight) Low Low Transportation Supply Contract Vessels Frequency Vessel Liquid and bulk Low Implications Freight Services Freight elasticity Markets Liquid and main bulk commodities Supply / demand regulation Low Developing / developed countries Share in Maritime Transport (2000) Tons Value 70% 20% 30% 80% Minor bulk and general cargo (containerized) Prior to demand Low Developed / developed countries Freight (bill of lading) General cargo High Many Small Low (volume) High High

Liner Shipping

Cargo, Trade and Ship Characteristics

Cargo Type
General Cargo Conventional

Trade Characteristics
Varied small consignments, Numerous consignees, Slow handling rates, Various routes, Numerous ports More uniform cargo, Rapid handling, Many ports

Vessel Size
Small

Unitized (containers) Dry Bulk Grain Ores/coal Liquid Crude oil Oil products

Small to medium (size increasing)

Small to medium consignments, Varied handling rates, Many restrictive ports Large consignments, Long hauls, Moderate handling rates, Specialized terminals, Few ports

Small to medium Medium to very large

Very large consignments, Long hauls, Few routes, Specialized terminals, Few ports Small shipments, Numerous consignees, Many ports

Very large to ultra large Small to medium

Tons Shipped by Maritime Transportation, 1981-2000 (in millions)

6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

Other Grain Ore/coal/minerals Oil

Maritime Engagement of the 15 largest Traders, 2000 (in %)
Singapore Taipei, Chinese Korea, Rep. of Mexico Belgium Netherlands Hong Kong, China Italy China Canada France United Kingdom Japan Germany United States 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0% 10,0% 12,0% 14,0% 16,0%

19 81 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00
Share of world fleet in terms of dwt Share of world trade (exports + imports)

Inland Waterway Traffic, Western Europe, 1970-2000 (in billion ton-kms)

140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000
UK Netherlands Germany France Finland Belgium

Factors Impacting Maritime Shipping Networks

Frequency of Service

Fleet and Vessel Size

Number of Port Calls

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

3

Port calls per week

4,000 TEU

5,000 TEU

Port calls per week

Global Fleet of Containers, 2000 (in TEUs)

1999

20 Foot 40 Foot Other

2000

0

1.000.000 2.000.000 3.000.000 4.000.000 5.000.000 6.000.000 7.000.000

Five Generations of Containerships
First Generation (1956-1970)
Converted Cargo Vessel Converted Tanker

Length 135 m 200 m

Draft <9m < 30 ft

TEU 500 800 1,000 – 2,500

Second Generation (1970-1980)
Cellular Containership

215 m

10 m 33 ft

Third Generation (1980-1988) 250 m
Panamax Class

3,000 11-12 m 36-40 ft 4,000

290 m Fourth Generation (1988-2000)
Post Panamax

275 – 305 m

11-13 m 36-43 ft

4,000 – 5,000

Fifth Generation (2000-?)
Post Panamax Plus

335 m

13-14 m 43-46 ft

5,000 – 8,000

Characteristics of Some Historical Containerships
Year 1956 1968 1981 1991 1995 1996 2001 2003 2005 2006 Name Ideal X Elbe Express Frankfurt Express Hanover Express APL China Regina Maersk Hamburg Express OOCL Shenzhen MSC Pamela Emma Maersk Capacity (TEU) 58 730 3,430 4,407 4,832 6,700 7,506 8,063 9,200 14,500 Yard US B&V HDW Samsung HDW Odense Hyundai Samsung Samsung Odense Length (m) 174.2 171.0 271.0 281.6 262.0 302.3 304.0 319.0 321.0 393.0 Width (m) 23.6 24.5 32.3 32.3 40.0 42.8 42.8 42.8 45.6 56.4 Draft (m) ? 7.9 11.5 13.5 12.0 12.2 14.5 14.5 15.0 15.5 Speed (knots) 18.0 20.0 23.0 23.0 24.6 24.6 25.0 25.2 25.0 24.5

Specifications for Very Large Post-Panamax Containerships

Malacca-max (Projected) Capacity (TEU) Length (meters) Width (meters) Draft (meters) Deadweight (tons) Speed (knots) 18,000 400 60 21 243,600 25

Suez-max (projected) 12,000 400 50 17 157,900 25

Sovereign Maersk 8,400 348 43 14 105,000 25

The Largest Available Containership, 1980-2005 (in TEUs)

10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Average Cost per TEU by Containership Capacity and By Route, 1997

700 Europe - Far East (11,500 miles) 600 Costs per TEU ($US) 500 400 300 200 100 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Capacity in TEU 6000 7000 8000 Trans Pacific (8,000 miles) Trans Atlantic (4,000 miles)

Economies and Diseconomies of Scale in Container Shipping

Costs per TEU

Tr Inland

n rtatio anspo

Maritime Ship ping

Capacity in TEU

Functional Integration of Supply Chains
Maritime Distribution
Shipping Agent Shipping Line Economies of scale

Land Distribution
Custom Agent Rail / Trucking Depot Trucking

Stevedore

Freight Forwarder

Megacarrier Level of functional integration

Tra nss h

ipm

ent

The Function of Transport Terminals

Location

Local Regional Global Infrastructures Accessibility

Transport Gateways

Foreland

Hinterland

Gateway

Local Regional Global

The Hinterland of a Transport Terminal

Competition Margin

Island Client B

Terminal

A
Main Hinterland

Continuous and Discontinuous Hinterlands

Port A

Continuous hinterland Port A

Discontinuous hinterland Port A

'Island' formation Discontinuous hinterland Port B

Port B

Continuous hinterland Port B

Core of the service area Middle section of the service area Outer section of the service area

Maritime load centre Inland terminal

Types of Hinterland

Macro-economic Concept Elements Transport demand Logistical sites (production and consumption) as part of GPNs International division of production and consumption

Physical Transport supply Transport links and terminals

Logistical Flows Mode, Timing, punctuality and frequency of services Supply chain management

Challenge

Additional capacity (modal and intermodal)

Port Foreland and Hinterland

Hinterland

Foreland

B

Main hinterland

A

D

Competition margin

C

Terminals as Clusters and Growth Poles

A

Terminal Terminal-dependent activities Agglomeration Inter-terminal link Terminal-client link

Cluster Structure (Dis)agglomeration forces Internal competition Cluster barriers Heterogeneity

Cluster Governance Intermediaries Trust Leader firms Collective action regimes

Cluster Performance Value added

B

Ports and Urban Land Use Interface
nm en t gy lo no ch Te vi ro En

3

City
3 2
om on Ec y
1

1 4

Port

Zone of conflict/cooperation Port migration 2 Industrial migration 3 Land use competition 4 Water use competition Environmental filter Traditional port/city zone

Po li t ic s

Legislation

2

4

Port Sites In a delta Margin of a delta Along a river Natural harbors

In an estuary

Near an estuary

In a bay

Protected

Harbor Types

Coastal Natural

Coastal Breakwater

River Basins

River Tide Gates

Coastal Tide Gates

River Natural

Canal or Lake

Open Roadstead

Major Port Holdings, 2006

APM Terminals Dubai Ports World Hutchison Port Holdings Peninsular and Oriental Ports Port of Singapore Authority

Pacific Asia

Europe

Container Terminals Controlled By Major Port Holdings, 2006

Holding APM Terminals Dubai Ports World Hutchison Port Holdings Peninsular & Oriental Ports Port of Singapore Authority Total

Australi a

Europe 7

North America 13

Pacific Asia 7 4 22

South America / Caribbe an 3 2 7 1

South Asia / Middle East 5 5 1 5

Total 39 15 42 29

1

2 10

4

7

5

6

11 5 37 18

20 59 13

1 17

32 157

Basic Constraints of Port Sites

Land Access

Land Space

Port Infrastructures
Maritime Space

Interface

Maritime Access

Capacity Range of Containerships by Draft

7.000 6.000 5.000 TEUs 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 0
8m (26ft) 8.5m (28ft) 9m (30ft) 9.5m (31ft) 10m 10.5m 11m 11.5m 12m 12.5m 13m (33ft) (34ft) (36ft) (38ft) (39ft) (41ft) (43ft)

Containership draft

Number of Large and Medium Ports by Channel Depth
6 to 10 11 to 15 16 to 20 21 to 25

8 11 16 36 76 76 71 47 16 6 10 4 4 5 33

Channel Depth (Feet)

26 to 30 31 to 35 36 to 40 41 to 45 45 to 50 51 to 55 56 to 60 61 to 65 66 to 70 71 to 75 76 and over

0

10

20

30

40 Number of Ports

50

60

70

80

Typology of Port Cities Small Small

Port Traffic
Medium Large

Coastal port town City

Regional port town Port

Major port town

City Size

Medium

Regional city

Regional port city

Major port city

Large
Coastal metropolis

Port metropolis

World port city

The Evolution of a Port

Setting

Expansion

Specialization

1 2

2 3

3

5 4

4 4

4

4

Downtown Urban expansion

Terminal facilities Port-related activities

Water depth

Rail Highway

Reconversion

Evolution of the Port of Rotterdam
United Kingdom Netherlands Germany Belgium

Wassenaar Wassenaar

Leiden Development Phases Voorschoten

1400 - 1800 1800 - 1900 1920 - 1940 1946 - 1960

Den Haag
Luxembourg
hi ne

1960 Zoetermeer -

1970

France

1970 - 2000
Pijnacker

R

's-Gravenzande 's-Gravenzande Naaldwijk

Delft Delft

Capelle aan den IJssel aan IJssel Maassluis Schiedam Krimpen aan den IJssel

Vlaardingen

Rotterdam
Hoogvliet Barendrecht Barendrecht Hellevoetsluis Hellevoetsluis Spijkenisse Oud-Beijerland Oud-Beijerland

0

1.5

3

6

9

12 Miles

Stages in Port Development
Stage 1 Period Up to the mid 19th century Rise in trade Cargo handling Storage Trade Stage 2 Mid 19th century to mid 20th century Industrialization Cargo handling Storage Trade Industrial manufacturing Stage 3 Late 20th century Stage 4 Late 20th century, early 21st century Logistics Cargo handling Storage Trade Industrial manufacturing Container distribution Logistics control Dominant cargo Spatial scale General cargo Port city Bulk cargo Port area Containers Port region Containers and information flows Port network

Development rationale Main port function

Globalization Cargo handling Storage Trade Industrial manufacturing Container distribution

Role of port authority

Nautical services

Nautical services Land and infrastructure

Nautical services Land and infrastructure Port marketing

Nautical services Land and infrastructure Port marketing Network management

Evolution of Port Function

The Spatial Development of a Port System
Phase 1: Scattered ports

Phase 2: Penetration and hinterland capture

LAND

SEA
Phase 3: Interconnection & concentration Phase 4: Centralization

Phase 5: Decentralization and insertion of ‘offshore’ hub

Phase 6: Regionalization

Load center

Interior centre

Freight corridor Deepsea liner services Shortsea/feeder services

Regional load centre network

Forms of Port Privatization

Type
Sale Concession Agreement Capital lease

Nature
Port is transferred on a freehold basis but with the requirement that it be used only to provide port services. Long-term lease of port land and facilities and the requirement that the concessionaire undertakes specified capital investments to build, expand, or maintain the cargo-handling facilities, equipment, and infrastructure. Similar to a concession except that the private sector is not explicitly required to invest in the facilities and equipment other than for normal maintenance and replacement over the life of the agreement. Private sector assumes responsibility for the allocation of port labor and equipment and provides services to the port users in the name of the port. The port retains control over all the resources. The private sector responsibility for performing specific port activities. The arrangement differs from a management contract in that the private sector provides the management, labor, and equipment required to accomplish these activities. Can be in various forms involving leaseback arrangements or supplier credits. These agreements are used to amortize the costs to the port for new equipment and to ensure a reliable supply of spare parts and, often, a guaranteed level of service/reliability from this equipment

Management contract Service contract

Equipment lease

Throughput of the World’s Major Ports, 1997-2000 (in millions of metric tons)

Hamburg Marseilles Yokohama Pusan Antwerp Nagoya Hong Kong Shanghai Singapore Rotterdam 0 50 100 150 200 250 300

1997 2000

350

Container Traffic of the World 20 Largest Ports, 2003
Gioia Tauro Laem Chabang Bremen/Bremerhafen Tokyo Tanjung Pelepas New York/New Jersey Quingdao Long Beach Port Kalang Dubai Antwerp Hamburg Rotterdam Los Angeles Kaohsiung Busan Shenzhen Shanghai Singapore Hong Kong

0

5.000.000

10.000.000

15.000.000

20.000.000

25.000.000

World Top 10 Container Ports, 1985-2000 (in Millions of TEUs)
Antwerp

Hamburg

Long Beach

1985 1990 1995 2000

Los Angeles

Shanghai

Rotterdam

Kaohsiung

Busan

Singapore

Hong Kong

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

The 50 Largest Container Ports, 1980-2003 (TEUs)
2003 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980

20.000.000

15.000.000

10.000.000

5.000.000

0

Cargo Throughput of the Port of Rotterdam, 2000

Inbound (249 million tons)

Outbound (73 million tons)

16% 32%

15%

25% 60%

52%

Total dry bulks

Total liquid bulks

Total general cargo

Total dry bulks

Total liquid bulks

Total general cargo

Modal Split of the Container Traffic, 1995-2000

Antwerp Road Rail Inland navigation Rotterdam

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Cargo Handled by the Top 5 US Container Ports, 1985-2005 (in TEUs)

Millions

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
New York/New Jersey Charleston Oakland Los Angeles Long Beach Total

Container Traffic at North American Ports, 1980-2004 (TEUs)

Millions

45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05

United States Canada

Value and Tonnage of Foreign Cargo Handled by Maritime Facade, United States, 1999 (in dollars and short tons)

Value
Billions
Millions

Tonnage
600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Atlantic Pacific Gulf of Mexico Great Lakes Exports Imports

300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Atlantic Pacific Gulf of Mexico Great Lakes Exports Imports

The Advantages of Offshore Hub Terminals

Pendulum Route A

Pendulum Route B

Offshore Hub

Short Sea Shipping

Ports with the Highest Transshipment Function, 2004
0 Port Klang Dubai Kaohsiung Las Palmas Piraeus Sharjah Colombo Panama Algeciras Taranto Kingston Damietta Malta Cagliari Port Said Singapore Salalah Gioia Tauro Tanjung Pelepas Freeport 1,1 2,1 3,1 3,3 0,5 0,7 19,4 0,7 1 1 1,4 0,6 0,9 1,4 1,6 1,9 2,5 2,6 3,2 5,3 5 50% 50% 55% 57% 57% 70% 72% 81% 85% 86% 86% 87% 90% 90% 90% 91% 95% 95% 96% 98% 10 15 20 25

Transshipment share Volume (M TEU)

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Transloading A Customer
c Tru ce tan Dis g kin
t y Tr E mp

avel

Producer

g Lon

B
Short Distance Trucking

Transloading
Long Distance Rail

The Panama Canal

Atlantic Ocean
Cristobal Gatun Dam

Colon
Facility

"
Gatun Locks

? !

Lake Gatun
Hondu ras Nicaragua

? !
"

Lock Dam Continental Devide Port

W

Costa Rica Panama

Venezuela

Gaillard Cut
Colombia

Pedro Miguel Locks

Miraflores Locks
Ecuador

Balboa

W
Panama Canal Panama Canal Railway

? ! ? !
Panama City

0

5

10

20

30

40 Kilometers

Pacific Ocean

±

Shipping Lanes and Strategic Passages in Pacific Asia
Russia

Tsugaru

Japan China

i fic Pac
India

Oc

ea

n

Malacca

So ut h
Makassar

I n d ia n

Indonesia

C hi na

Se a

Torres

Ocean

Sunda Lombok

Equidistant Conic Projection

Australia

The Strait of Malacca
fo ul G fT
a ail Th nd
c Pa c ifi ce O

nd ila ha

an

an di In O

Strait of Malacca

an ce

Ma s ia la y

South China Sea
Singapore

ia ys ala M

Indonesia
a si

In

Indian Ocean

ne do
Strait of Sunda

0

100

200

400

600

800 Miles

Shipping Lanes, Strategic Passages and Oil Reserves in the Middle East Russia Bosporus
Turkmenistan Turkey Afghanistan Syria

China

Suez
Libya

Iraq
Kuwait

Iran Hormuz

Pakistan
India

Egypt

QA

Saudi Arabia

AE Oman

Yemen

Sudan
Oil Reserves (barrels, 2005)
Less than 20 billion 20 to 60 billion 60 to 125 billion More than 125 billion No significant reserves

Bab el-Mandab
Millions of barrel s per day (2004)
Less than 0.5 0.5 to 2.5 2.5 to 5.0

Somalia

More than 5.0

The Dardanelles and Bosporus Passages

Greece Black Sea

Turkey
Istanbul
Marmara Denizi

Bosporus

Da

es ell an rd

Turkey
Mediterranean Ocean
40 20 0 40 Miles

g

The Northern East-West
Haparanda/Tornio

Narvik
Sweden

Finland
Oulu

Ru Freight ss ia
St. Petersburg

Corridor

1 Day 0.3 Day 5,600 km 600 km Halifax 8 Days Narvik 0.6 Day Tornio

1 Day 970 km 1 Day Vainikkala

9,870 km 8.2 Days

Vostochny

Freight Transport Sequence

Vostochny

Vainikkala

Harbin

Lianyungang
Beijing

Scandinavian Segment

United Stat es

Zabaykalsk Lanzhou Ulaanbaatar Irkutsk

Canada

China

Mongolia

Russia
Novosibi rsk Lokot Druzhba Urumqi

New York Boston

Astana Yekaterinburg Perm' Presnog orkovka

Kazakhstan

Halifax

Haparanda/Tornio Oulu

Archangel'sk
Vologda Vainikkala St. Petersburg Moscow Transatlantic Segment Rail Main Trunk (Broad Gauge)

Port Gauge Change Rail Terminal Azimutha l Equidistant Polar Projection

Rail Main Trunk (Standard Gauge)

Rotterdam

Brest

Rail Connector (Broad Gauge) Rail Connector (Standard Gauge) Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University, No vember 2005

Source: International Union of Ra ilways (2004) The Northern East West (N.E.W.) Freight Corridor, Transpo rtutvikling AS.

Major Global Trade Routes, 1400-1800

Baltic North America Mexico
Havana

Western Europe

Central Asia
Hormuz

China
Canton Manila Aceh Malacca

Caribbean

West Africa

Aden

India

Pacific Ocean
Peru Trade Route Dominant Capital Flow Brazil

East Africa

Pacific Ocean

Atlantic Ocean

Indian Ocean

Southeast Asia

A. B. C. D. F. G. H. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Custos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia e Intermodalidade Ferrovia Marítimo Aéreo Ambiente Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

A. B. C. F. G. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia, Ferrovia e Intermodalidade Marítimo Aéreo Externalidades Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

Flight Times by Piston and Jet Engines from Chicago

Piston Engine

10 hours 15 hours 20 hours 24 hours 30 hours

h 40

s our

Jet Engine

15 h

10 hours

urs 20 h o

ou rs

rs hou 24

Main Commercial Passenger Aircraft, 1935-2008
Aircraft Douglas DC-3 Douglas DC-7 Boeing 707-100 Boeing 727-100 Boeing 747-100 McDonnell Douglas DC-10 Airbus A300 Boeing 767-200 Boeing 747-400 Boeing 777-200ER Airbus A340-500 Airbus A380 Boeing 787-8 Year of First Commercial Service 1935 1953 1958 1963 1970 1971 1974 1982 1989 1995 2003 2006 2008 Speed (km/hr) 346 555 897 917 907 908 847 954 939 1030 886 930 1040 Maximum Range at Full Payload (km) 563 5,810 6,820 5,000 9,045 7,415 3,420 5,855 13,444 14,300 15,800 14,800 15,700 Seating Capacity 30 52 110 94 385 260 269 216 416 300 313 555 250

Range from New York of Different Modern Commercial Jet Planes

77100 (

7,4

00 km )

A32

B -7

0( 3,7 00 km )

00 7-4 -74 B

0 ,40 (11

) km

World Air Travel and World Air Freight Carried, 1950-2004

4000

3500 3000

Passengers Freight

140

120

Billions of passengers-km

100

80 2000 1500 60

1000 500

40

20

0
19 89 19 95 19 71 19 77 19 83 19 65 19 80 19 50 19 59 19 68 19 53 19 62 19 56 19 74 20 04 19 86 19 92 19 98 20 01

0

World Air Travel and Gross World Product, 1950-2001

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0

3500

Gross World Product

Trillions of $US

2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0

19 50 19 53 19 56 19 59 19 62 19 65 19 68 19 71 19 74 19 77 19 80 19 83 19 86 19 89 19 92 19 95 19 98 20 01

Billions of passengers-km

Passengers

3000

Billions of tons-km

2500

Air Transportation Growth (Passengers and Freight) and Economic Growth, 1950-2001

30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1950 -5% -10%

Passengers-km Tons-km GWP

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

Stages in Air Network Development

Stage 1

Stage 3

Stage 2

Stage 4

Early Intercontinental Air Routes, 1930s

Eyeries Botwood New York Azores

Gaza

Da kar

Khartoum Juba Nairobi Mbeya Harare Johannesburg

Na tal Rio d o Bu en Pu nta os Air es

Sa nti ag

eJ ane i

ro

Cape Town

Are nas

Imperial Airways African Route (c1933) Imperial Airways/Quantas Australian Route (c1934) Aeropostale (1930) KLM Amsterdam – Jakarta (1935) Pan American Transatlantic Route (1939)

Average Airfare (roundtrip) between New York and London, 1946-2004

$7.000 $6.000 $5.000 $4.000 $3.000 $2.000 $1.000 $0 1940

$6.500

$4.100 $2.600

1950

1960

1970

1980

Ja s Gw k a Ka dar ra c Jo hi dh A l pur lah a Ca bad Me Pa l da lem Ak cutt n y a b Ra ab Ja ang ng Al Su kar B o ra ta Si or S ang on ba k ng e ya ap tar ok or Ku e pa ng W ain Ka t ga Mo her pu in Lo un e ng t I s Da Ch re a rw ac ar in lev h ille Sy dn ey Br isb an e

Sh

ar jah

Ku wa it

London Amsterdam Paris Toulouse Lisbon Marseilles A T lica Ca angie nte Alexandria sab r Ag Cairo adi lanc r a Wadi Halfa

Da y Ba r az Ba ghd Zaw sr ad r a

Br in At disi he ns

$600

1990

2000

2010

World’s 10 Largest Passengers Airlines, 2000 (in 1,000 passengers)

British Airways Air France All Nippon Airways Continental Airlines Lufthansa US Airways Northwest Airlines United Airlines American Airlines Delta Air Lines 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000

World’s 10 Largest Freight Airlines, 2000 (in 1,000 tons)

Air France British Airways Northwest Airlines Cathay Pacific Singapore Airlines Japan Airlines Lufthansa Korean Air Lines United Parcel Service Federal Express 0 1.000 2.000 3.000 4.000 5.000

Airline Deregulation and Hub-and-Spoke Networks Before Deregulation

After Deregulation

Hub Hub

Air Hubs and Market Fragmentation
1984 - Chicago Gateway - 1 US Flight Daily (Trans World: B747)

Chicago

London

2001 - Chicago Hub - 22 US Flights Daily (American / United: B767, B777 )
Stockholm

Chicago

Glasgow Birmingham Manchester Dusseldorf Brussels London Frankfurt Zurich Milan

Characteristics of Major Air Travel Markets

United States
Deregulation started in 1978 Low population density and dispersed urban centers Relatively open air spaces and airports Rail minor competitor; Car compete for short distances

Europe
Deregulation started in 1997 High population density and concentrated urban centers Congested air spaces and airports High speed rail is a direct competitor; Rail is a minor competitor; Car compete for short distances Some lingering loyalty to carriers Price becoming transparent Limited income growth and more leisure time

Pacific Asia
Regulated markets with government ownership Dispersion of urban centers but high regional concentrations Congested gateway airports underutilized regional airports Except for Japan, less competition from other transportation modes Strong “imposed” loyalty to carriers Price not transparent Growing income levels

No loyalty to carriers (pricing and frequent flyers) Price transparency Limited income growth and limited leisure

Market Share of World Airline Traffic, 2003

Oneworld
American Airlines, British Airways, Aer Lingus, Cathay Pacific, Finnair, Iberia, LanChile, Quantas

SkyTeam 21%

Star
United Airlines, Lufthansa, Air Canada, Air New Zealand, ANA, Asiana, Austrian, bmi british midland, LOT Polish Airlines, Mexicana, SAS, Singapore, Spanair, Thai Airways, Varig, US Airways, TAM, TAP
Star 24% Others 38%

SkyTeam
Air France, Delta Airlines, Aeromexico, Alitalia, CSA Czech Airlines, Korean Air, Northwest, Continental, KLM
Oneworld 17%

Commodities Shipped by Air Freight, 2003

Total: 144 billion freight ton-kms
17%

43%

13%

11% 7% 9%

Capital equipment Intermediate materials Perishables Computers Apparel Other

Income per passenger-km of major airline alliances, 1997

19,3% 28,2%

Oneworld (American, Canadian, JAL, US Airways, British Airways, Quantas, Iberia, Cathay Pacific) Star (United, Lufthansa, Thai, SAS, Air Canada, Varig, SAA, Singapore, ANA, ANZ, Ansett Australia)

10,6%

Northwest, Continental, KLM, Alitalia Delta, Swissair, Sabena, Austrian

14,3% 27,6%

Others

Operating Expenses of the Airline Industry, 2004

15
Flight operations (fuel and pilots)

5,1 6,5 7,2 6,5 15,3

33,7

Maintenance (parts and labor) Aircraft and traffic servicing Promotion and sales Passenger services Administration Equipment depreciation and amortisation

10,7

Transport related

Operating Revenues of the Airline Industry, 2004

18,8%

4,2%

11,9% 65,1%

Passenger Freight Charter Other

Seat Capacity of Selected Aircrafts, pre and post-1985

Main pre-1985 Models

Main post-1985 Models
Airbus 310 297 252 132 141 183 144 0 100 200 300 400

Boeing 747

400 Boeing 767

Douglas DC10

Airbus 320 265 Boeing 737 Boeing 757 302 Boeing MD80 0 100 200 300 400

Lockheed L1011

Operating Fleet, Major US Carriers, 2001
L-1011 F-100 MD-90 MD-80 MD-11 DC-10 DC-9 DC-8 B777 B767 B757 B747 B737 B727 B717 A330 A321 A320 A319 A310 A300 1,277

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Major Air Traffic Flows, 1999 (millions of passengers)
Others South America Central America Africa Africa - Europe Middle East North America - Asia Africa - South America Europe - Asia North America - Central America Southwest Pacific North America - Europe Asia Europe North America 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500

World’s 10 Largest International Air Carriers, 2000 (in 1,000 passengers)

Cathay Pacific SAS Swissair Japan Airlines Singapore Airlines KLM American Airlines Air France Lufthansa British Airways 0 5.000 10.000 15.000 20.000 25.000 30.000 35.000

World’s 10 Largest Domestic Airlines, 2000 (in 1,000 passengers)

Japan Air System Japan Airlines TWA Continental All Nippon Airways Northwest Airlines US Airways American Airlines United Airlines Delta Air Lines 0 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000

Major Air Traffic Flows Between Regions, 2000 (% of IATA Scheduled Passengers)

North America 1.7 35.5 1.8 Central America 1.3

3.9 23.2 1.3

Europe 1.9 15.9 1.5 Middle East 1.1 Africa Southwest Pacific Asia 1.7

South America 3.2

1.7

2.6

Major Air Freight Flows Between Regions, 2003 (in billions of ton-km)

24.2 13.8

North America 22.4 2.7

9.9 12.3 2.2

Europe 1.3 1.9 1.7 2.7 2.5 0.1 Africa 3.3

11.6 12.4 9.1 Asia / Pacific

24.2 13.8

4.6

0.1 Middle East

0.1 Latin America

Airport Components

Airfield

Terminal 1

Isle 2

Shuttles

Terminal

3

Airport Location Factors
High City Center Low High

Low

Commuting radius

High

Low

Benefits

Externalities

Suitability
Location Ring

Site of the Hong Kong Chek Lap Kok Terminal

ay unw ern r h Nort nal ermi ure T n Fut nsio Expa hern Sout rt enge P as s a runw y r ea rgo a ermi nal

on stati Train

Light Rail System

stics Logi

ca and

To Kowloon and Hong Kong

Airport Hubbing Level

Percentage Passengers Connecting

High
50%

25%

None

0%

World’s Largest Passengers Airports, 2004 (in millions)
NEW YORK (JFK) BANGKOK (BKK) MADRID (MAD) PHOENIX (PHX) LAS VEGAS (LAS) DENVER (DEN) AMSTERDAM (AMS) FRANKFURT/MAIN (FRA) PARIS (CDG) DALLAS/FT WORTH AIRPORT (DFW) LOS ANGELES (LAX) TOKYO (HND) LONDON (LHR) CHICAGO (ORD) ATLANTA (ATL) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Passenger Traffic at the World’s Largest Airports, 2004

London Heathrow Chicago O'Hare

Frankfurt Intl

Paris De Gaulle Los Angeles Intl Dallas Intl Atlanta Hartsfield Tokyo Haneda

Passengers
Less than 30 M 30 M to 40 M 40 M to 60 M More than 60 M

World’s Largest Freight Airports, 2004 (in millions of metric tons)
CHICAGO (ORD) SHANGHAI (PVG) TAIPEI (TPE) NEW YORK (JFK) LOUISVILLE (SDF) MIAMI (MIA) SINGAPORE (SIN) FRANKFURT/MAIN (FRA) PARIS (CDG) LOS ANGELES (LAX) SEOUL (ICN) ANCHORAGE (ANC) TOKYO (NRT) HONG KONG (HKG) MEMPHIS (MEM)

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

3,5

4,0

Freight Traffic at the World’s Largest Airports, 2004

Fra nkfurt Intl New York Ny/Newark Kennedy Memphis Intl Miami Int'L Paris De Gaulle Incheon Hlpt Tokyo Narita Hong Kong IntlTaipei Shek

Los Angeles Intl Louisville Standiford

Freight
Less than 1 M 1 to 1.5 M 1.5 to 2 M More than 2 M

Singapore Changi

Tons of Landed Freight at Major US Airports, 2003
SEA BFI PDX

GEG

BOI FSD SLC OMA DEN

MSP SYR BUF ORD RFD DSM MKE DTW TOL CLE PIT

BOS BDL

MHT

RNO SFO OAK SJC

MCI STL LAS LAX ONT ABQ SAN PHX DFW ELP SHV

FWA IND DAY CVG SDF

JFK EWR PHL MDT BWI IAD RIC

RDU TUL MEM BNA HSV CLT ATL CAE

JAX AUS SAT 2 million to 4 million IAH MSY MCO TPA MIA FLL More than 4 million

Tons of Landed Freight (2003)
Less than 400,000 400,000 to 800,000 800,000 to 2 million

A. B. C. D. F. G. H. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Custos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia e Intermodalidade Ferrovia Marítimo Aéreo Ambiente Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

A. B. C. F. G. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia, Ferrovia e Intermodalidade Marítimo Aéreo Externalidades Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

Transport Fatalities by Mode, United States, 1970-2003

60.000 50.000 40.000 30.000 20.000 10.000 0 1970 1980 1990 2001 2003 Waterborne Railroad Highway Air Carriers

Probability of Pedestrian Fatality by Impact Speed

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Impact speed (km/h)

Loss of Life per 10,000 Vehicles, OECD Countries, 1993-1995

United States Netherland Germany Canada Australia Japan Switzerland UK Norway Sweden 0 0,5 1 1,5 2 2,5

The Paradox of Mobility and its Costs

Mobility Mobility

Paradox

Costs Costs

Growing demand Growing demand Motorization Motorization Energy (petroleum) Energy (petroleum)

Internal costs (users) Internal costs (users) External costs (society) External costs (society) Environmental impacts Environmental impacts

The Environmental System

Atmosphere

Ecosphere
Li th os ph er e
4. ECOSPHERE 4.1 AQUATIC ECOSPHERE Alteration of ecosystems in unforeseeable ways. Disappearance of vulnerable species and proliferation of tolerant ones. Reduction of bacterial treatment of organic matter by nitrification. Reduction of available nutrients to aquatic species. Reproductive impediments. 4.2 LAND ECOSPHERE Damages over the vegetation modifying:
hydric cycles. the level of underground water resources. soil erosion. air purification capacity of the ecosphere. food sources (agriculture). entertainment and tourism.

The Environmental Impacts of Transportation 1. ATMOSPHERE
Large scale diffusion of pollutants. High growth on a short term basis of the concentration of pollutants because of local conditions (e.g. smog). Photochemical reactions caused by ultraviolet rays, notably over ozone, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide. Climatic changes (global warming). Acid rain. Synergetic effects when pollutants are combined (e.g. smog and greenhouse gases). 2. HYDROSPHERE Diffusion of pollutants in a dissolved or colloidal state. Acidification and loss of neutralizing potential of ground and underground water. Drops of pH following snow melting (aquatic organism are particularly vulnerable). Growth in the solubility of several metals because of acidification. Additions of organic compounds, aluminum, manganese, calcium, magnesium and potassium by runoffs. Contamination of ground and underground water by nitrates.

3. LITHOSPHERE Acid depositions. Liberation of toxic metallic ions (aluminum, cadmium, etc.) through acidification. Loss of nutrients, notably calcium and magnesium. Inhibition of the miniralization of nitrogen. Modifications in the compositions and the depth of decomposition gradient. Inhibition of decomposition. Loss of the soil flora and fauna. Fixation by plants of heavy metals (e.g. lead) and contamination. Removal and consumption of land. Extraction of raw materials like mineral products and energy.

H r yd e er ph os

Biosphere

Reduction of the vital space. Reduction of the genetic potential of species. Reduction of the food supply and alteration of the food chain. Consumption of resources. 4.3 HUMAN ECOSPHERE Odors. Noise. Cardiovascular and respiratory problems. Susceptibility to infection. Drops in life expectancy. Injuries, incapacity, hospitalization, death. Damage to structures:
loss of useful life. (amortization) loss of property values. corrosion of metal structures (bronze, steel, etc.). destruction of historical and cultural monuments.

Estimated Automobile Costs

32% 45% External cost Internal fixed costs Internal variable costs

23%

Transportation Activities Affecting the Environment

Activity Activity Infrastructure Infrastructure

Mode Mode

Traffic Traffic

Road Road Vehicle manufacture Vehicle manufacture Rail Rail Vehicle travel Vehicle travel Maritime Maritime Vehicle maintenance Vehicle maintenance Air Air Vehicle disposal Vehicle disposal Freight Freight Passengers Passengers

Transportation Systems and the Environment

Centralized network

Diffused network

Spatial and Durational Environmental Effects

Network
Localized emissions Energy efficient Diffused emissions High energy use Level of emissions Level of energy consumption

Traffic Mode
Duration Lead Noise Mode

Traffic Car Bus Walking Rail

Nature of emissions Nature of energy consumption

CO2

Global
NOX

Regional Local
Particulates

Space

The Concept of Externalities

C(E)

Total costs

ΔE(L1) C(O) E(L1) C(L1) ΔC(L1) 0

Optimal cost Intervention costs Externalities

L1 L(O) Level of intervention

L

Sources of Energy

Chemical Chemical

Non-Renewable Non-Renewable

• •Fossil fuels (Combustion) Fossil fuels (Combustion)

Nuclear Nuclear

• •Uranium (Fission of atoms) Uranium (Fission of atoms)

Energy Energy
Renewable Renewable

Chemical Chemical Nuclear Nuclear Gravity Gravity

• •Muscular (Oxidization) Muscular (Oxidization) • •Geothermal (Conversion) Geothermal (Conversion) • •Fusion (Fusion of hydrogen) Fusion (Fusion of hydrogen) • •Tidal, hydraulic (Kinetic) Tidal, hydraulic (Kinetic)

Indirect Solar Indirect Solar Direct Solar Direct Solar

• •Biomass (Photosynthesis) Biomass (Photosynthesis) • •Wind (Pressure differences) Wind (Pressure differences) • •Photovoltaic cell (Conversion) Photovoltaic cell (Conversion)

Energy Content of some Combustibles (in MJ/kg)

Wood Coal Crude Oil Kerosene Ethanol Methanol Methane Natural Gas Gasoline Hydrogen
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Evolution of Energy Sources

Mid 21st Century Animal Biomass Coal Oil Natural Gas Nuclear Hydrogen

Late 20th Century

Early 20th Century

Mid 19th Century

15th Century 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Global Energy Systems Transition, (% of market)

100 80

Wood

Coal

Solids
60

Gases
Hydrogen

40

Liquids
20 0 Oil Natural Gas

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

World Fossil Fuel Consumption per Source, 1950-2002 (in million of tons of equivalent oil)
8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0
19 53 19 59 19 56 19 68 19 50 19 62 19 74 19 80 19 65 19 86 19 71 19 77 19 83 19 89 19 92 19 95 19 98 20 01

Natural Gas Oil Coal

World Marketed Energy Consumption by Region, 1980-2030

800 700 600 Quadrillion Btu 500 400 300 200 100 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Non-OECD OECD

Energy Consumption in the Transportation Sector, G7 Countries, 1995

100 90 80 70 Exajoules 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Canada France Germany Italy Japan UK USA Transportation Consumption Other Energy Consumption

Energy Consumed by the Transportation Sector, United States, 1949-1999 (in billions of BTUs)

30.000.000 Petroleum Consumed by the Transporation Sector 25.000.000 20.000.000 15.000.000 10.000.000 5.000.000
19 70 19 76 19 79 19 85 19 67 19 61 19 73 19 52 19 55 19 49 19 58 19 64 19 82 19 88 19 91 19 94 19 97

Total Energy Consumed by the Transportation Sector

253

World Oil Energy Consumption by Sector, 1973-2000

2000

20,1

57,7

5,9

16,3

Industry Transport Non-energy Other sectors
26,2 42,2 6,4 25,2

1973

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Automobile Emission Factors

1000 HC CO NOx 100

20

Emissions (grams)

15 % of Vehicle-km
1800

10 10 5

1 5 10 20 30 35 45 55 60 70 Speed (in km/hr) 80 85 95 100

0

Gasoline Price and Use, Western Industrial Countries, 1994
1,4 1,2 1 0,8 0,6 0,4 0,2 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

Portugal

Dollars per liter

Japan R2 = 0,7704

Australia Canada United States

Liters per person

Distance Driven and Carbon Emissions, U.S. Automobile Fleet, 1970-2000

350 300 Million metric tons 250 200 150 100 50 0
19 74 19 76 19 78 19 80 19 82 19 84 19 86 19 88 19 90 19 92 19 94 19 96 19 98 20 00 19 70 19 72
Carbon Emissions Distance Driven

4 3,5 3 Trillion KM 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0

Noise Levels (in decibels) dB (A)

120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Aircraft at take off

Pneumatic drill at 1 meter Lorry, motorcycle, underground train Busy crossroads Noise level near a motorway Busy street through open windows Busy street through closed windows

Quiet room Broadcasting studio Desert

A. B. C. D. F. G. H. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Custos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia e Intermodalidade Ferrovia Marítimo Aéreo Ambiente Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

A. B. C. F. G. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia, Ferrovia e Intermodalidade Marítimo Aéreo Externalidades Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

Passengers Mobility Transition Industrial Revolution Mass Production Globalization

Individual Motorized

Collective Non-motorized

Economic Development

Current and Potential Car Fleet in India and China

China

640 13
Vehicle Fleet Size for Industrialized Vehicle Ownership Level Current Size of Vehicle Fleet (1999)

India

513 8

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Millions

World Urban Population, 1950-2005 with Projections to 2020 (in billions)
4,5 4 3,5 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 0
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

World Developed countries Developing countries

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

The 15 Largest cities in the world, 1975-2015 (millions)
0 Tokyo Mumbai Mexico São Paulo New York Delhi Shanghai Calcutta Dhaka Jakarta Lagos Karachi Buenos Aires Cairo Los Angeles 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

1975 2005 2015

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Cities with more than 5 Million People, 2000

London Los Angeles Chicago New York Santiago

Saint Petersburg Moscow Paris Essen Istanbul Cairo BeijingTianjinSeoul Osaka Lahore Delhi ChongqingWuhan Shanghai Karachi Calcutta Hyderabad BangaloreMadras Bangkok

Mexico City

Santiago

Lagos Kinshasa Jakarta

Lima Rio de Janeiro Santiago Buenos Aires

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Percentage of Urban Population by Region, 1950-2030

Asia Latin America North America Europe Africa World 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2030 2000 1975 1950 80 90

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Urban Population by Region, 1950-2030 (in millions)

Asia Latin America North America Europe Africa 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2030 2000 1975 1950 3000

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Evolution of Urban Densities in North America and Europe

North America
r(NA) Density Density

Europe
r(E)

IV I II III

I

II

III

IV

Distance

Distance

I - Prior to mechanized transport II - Early forms of mechanized transport (tramways) III - Diffusion of motor vehicles (buses, automobiles) IV - Suburbanization

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Average Journey to Work Travel Time, 1990

40 35 30
Minutes

25 20 15 10 5 0 United States Western Europe Japan Other Asia Australia

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Transportation, Activity Systems and Land Use Spatial imprint

Infrastructures Modes Transportation Users
Spatial interaction

Urban Form

Labor Customers Suppliers

Activity
Spatial location

Urban Spatial Structure

Land Use Pattern
Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Dynamics of Urban Change

Network Freight Transport

Very Slow

Commuting Pace of Change
Taxi service boundary

Very Fast

Employment

Population
Fast

Workplaces Land Use

Housing

Slow

Very Slow

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Components of an Urban Transit System

X X X X X X X

X X X X X X X

X X X X X X X X

X

Metro station Transfer

Transit rail station

Bus stop Express stop
X

Shuttle stop

Paratransit

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Types of Urban Movements

Movement Type

Pattern

Dominant Time

Destination

Pendular

Structured

Morning and afternoon Workdays

Localized (employment) Localized

Professional

Varied

Personal

Structured

Evening

Varied with some foci

Touristic

Seasonal

Day

Highly localized

Distribution

Structured

Nighttime

Localized

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Main Purposes of Urban Trips

3% 20%

49%

15%

Work Shopping School Business (Work) Business (Personnal) Home Other

5% 3% 5%

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Urban Travel by Purpose and by Time of the Day in a North American Metropolis

35 30 25

Shopping Social / Recreation Work Total trips

Percentage

20 15 10 5 0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Typical Truck Trips Distribution by Time of the Day

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0
1AM 3AM 5AM 7AM 9AM 11AM 1PM 3PM 5PM 7PM 9PM 11PM

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Modal Split for Global Cities, 1995

100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
Chinese Cities American Cities Australian Cities West European Cities High Income Asian Cities Low Income Asian Cities Private Motor Vehicle Transit Walking / Cycling

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Modal Split for Some Cities, 1990

100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% New York Houston London Shanghai Cycling Walking Transit Private Car

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Modal Split for Some Asian Cities, 1990s

100%

80%

60%

40%

Walking & Cycling Transit Private Car

20%

0% Bangkok Kuala Lumpur Jakarta Tokyo Manila Singapore Hong Kong

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Mode Share for Commuting, New York, 1980-2000

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1980 1990 2000 Other non walk Taxi Bus Subway Automobile

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Key Issues in Urban Freight Transportation

Issue
Increasing volume of freight moving in urban areas Changes in the nature of freight distribution Repetitiveness Environmental issues Emergence of e-commerce Congestion Regulation

Challenge
Capacity of urban freight transport systems Smaller volumes and time-sensitive freight Many urban activities (retail, groceries and catering) require daily deliveries Growing demand for reverse logistic flows (waste and recycling) Growth in home deliveries Lower driving speeds and frequent disruptions (reliability) Emissions, access and zoning

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Factors Contributing to the Growth of Driving in the United States

17%

13% Increase in population Increase in trip length

17% 35%

Increase in trips Decrease in vehicle occupancy Switch to driving

18%

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Levels of Automobile Dependency

Car only

High Automobile Dependency
75%

Medium
50%

Low
Transportation alternatives

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Space / Time Relationships and Modal Choice

High

Density

Low High Congestion Low

e iile y ob ob c m en tto nd Au pe Au epe De D

TIME

Worst case

ed iix M M
Concentrated

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

t sii ns an Tr

Best case

SPACE

Dispersed

The Vicious Circle of Congestion

Congestion
The number of The number of movements movements increases increases The average The average length of length of movements movements increases increases

Public pressures Public pressures to increase to increase capacity capacity

New capacity
Movements Movements are easier are easier

Urban sprawl Urban sprawl is favored is favored

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Traffic Conditions in Major American Cities, 1982-2003

100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1982 1990 1997 2003 Extreme Severe Heavy Moderate Uncongested

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Parking Accumulation by Land Use by Time of the Day
100 90 80
Percent of Peak Parking

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0
6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10AM 11AM 12AM 1PM 2PM

Residential Office Retail Restaurant Cinema
3PM 4PM 5PM 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10PM

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

Recurring Congestion

Traffic Capacity
Congestion

Unused Capacity

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23

Copyright © 1998-2007, Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University. For personal or classroom use ONLY. This material (including graphics) is not public domain and cannot be published, in whole or in part, in ANY form (printed or electronic) and on any media without consent. This includes conference presentations. Permission MUST be requested prior to use.

A. B. C. F. G. I. J. L.

Economia, Comércio e Transporte Modos de Transporte Logística e Terminais Rodovia, Ferrovia e Intermodalidade Marítimo Aéreo Externalidades Transporte Urbano
Vitor Caldeirinha

Slides adaptados de: Jean-Paul Rodrigue, 2006 Hofstra University, Hempstead, NY

vitorcaldeirinha@netvisao.pt

ISEG 4 de Abril de 2008

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