Trends in Asias Security Order:

Increased Competition or Conflict?

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

Presentation to Executive Education Program
The University of New South Wales at the
Australian Defence Force Academy
June 29, 2015

Outline
Trends in Asias Security Order

Indo-Pacific Overview
Rise of China and India
A Revitalised Japan
US and Its Asia Pivot
Challenges and Opportunities

Overview: Economic Drivers

Global Economic Growth Flattens

Source: IMF: World Economic Outlook 2014

Worlds Top Ten Defence Budgets

>$145b?

Risk of
Instability

Burma
DPRK
Timor-Leste
Cambodia
Philippines
Laos
China
Thailand
Indonesia

Indo-Pacific Overview

Nuclear Proliferation
International Terrorism
Cyber and Space
Asia-Pacific, Indo-Pacific, East
Asia or Southeast Asia?

Rise of China
Consolidation of Xi Jinping administration
Central National Security Commission
Central Commission for Discipline Inspection
Anti-corruption campaign

Chinese nationalism as a driver

Xis New Asian Order
Asian issues to be decided by Asians

Continued economic growth slower pace

China: Growth in Defence Spending vs

Growth in GDP (annual % change)

Rise of China
Force modernisation
Fight and win short-duration, high-intensity
regional conflicts

Counter-intervention (A2/AD) Taiwan

Contingencies other than Taiwan

Growing power projection capabilities

Defence budget increased 5.7% (2013)

 Chinas military
modernisation
Surface
combatants
Aircraft
carrier(s)
Conventional
and nuclear
submarines
Ballistic
missiles
Cruise missiles

Chinas Import Transit Routes

China and the United States

Cooperation and Strategic Competition
New model of bilateral relations (Sunnylands)

Over sixty bilateral mechanisms

Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED)
Strategic Security Dialogue
Defense Consultative Talks
Defense Policy Coordination Talks
Military Maritime Consultative Agreement

China
Outward Investment and Contracts

Chinas Assertive Approach

to Regional Security
Increase in fleet military exercises in East and
South China Sea
Air Defence Identification Zone (November 2013)
Three fleets exercise off Philippines (Oct 2013)
Dispatch of first aircraft carrier Liaoning
Surface Action Group Sunda/Lombok Straits
James Shoal (Malaysia)
Oil Rig off Vietnam

Chinas East China Sea ADIZ

Guangzhou Military Region

South China Sea

Chinese Instigated Incidents

Rise of India
Prime Minister Narendra Modi
Landslide victory ensures stability for next 5 years

New emphasis on economic growth,

governance and political stability
8.4% in 2010 < 5% in 2013
Control inflation and food prices
Infrastructure projects

Cabinet Committee on Security

India: Foreign & Defence Policies

Look East/Act East

New emphasis on international role
Japan
United States
Southeast Asia
Australia
Trilateral US-Japan-India

India Defence Budget

A Revitalised Japan
Shinzo Abe landslide victory December 2012
and control of upper house July 2013
Abenomics
Kickstart stagnant economy/mixed results

Three arrows:
massive quantitative easing, pouring of liquidity
into economy by central bank
fiscal stimulus
economic restructuing.

A Revitalised Japan
Assert Japans role as global major power
National Security Council (December 2013)
Reinterpretation of Article 9
Right to individual and collective self-defence

National Security Strategy

Revised National Defence Program Guidelines and
Mid-Term Defense Program
Revision of Japan-US Defence Guidelines
Revision of Arms Export Policy
Defence budget increased by 3%

A Revitalised Japan

Assertive nationalism
Strained relations with China
Trust deficit with South Korea
Trilateralism/Quadrilateralism
Japan-US-South Korea
Japan-US-Australia
US-Japan-India + Australia?

Prime Minister Abe seeking mandate beyond

2016

Japan Percentage of Government

Spending on Defence

Japan Defence Budget

US and Its Asia Pivot

Rebalancing not pivot
Economic and political/diplomatic aspects
Military mainly newer platforms & exercises

Rebalancing has shelf life until Nov. 2016

Tied to Obamas legacy

U.S. Pacific Command will remain dominant

military force for next decade

Asian Investment in the U.S.

Defence Budgets With and Without

Sequestration

U.S. Rebalancing

First and Second Island Chains

Underwater
sensors
(fixed and
mobile) to
detect
submarine
movements

Yulin Naval
Base, Hainan
Island

Exrtended Range of
Chinas Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles

USNS Impeccable Incident March 2009

Challenges

Stagnant global economy

Nuclear proliferation North Korea
Chinas growing military power
China-United States strategic competition
International terrorism
Cyber and space
Domestic instability

Challenges
Good order at sea
Territorial disputes
East China Sea and South China Sea

Competing frameworks for regional economic

integration
FTAAP, RCEP, TPP
ADB and Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank

Effective multilateral security architecture

Opportunities
Building on APEC, ASEAN and G20 Summits
Sino-Japanese relations
Sino-American relations

Chinas economic largesse

New Silk Road, Maritime Silk Road

ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting Plus

HA/DR and Military Medicine

Opportunities
Synergies between ARF and ADMM Plus
Maritime security

Enlarged ASEAN Maritime Forum

Moving into unchartered waters

ASEAN Political-Security Community 2015

Regional autonomy, centrality

Enhanced regional architecture

East Asia Summit

Wild Cards
Enhanced Defense Cooperation
Agreement before Philippines Supreme
Court
July 2015 Arbitral Tribunal to hear Claim
brought by the Philippines
Early 2016 National Party Congress
Vietnam

Wild Cards
National Election in Taiwan
May 2016 National Elections in the
Philippines
Nov. 2016 National Elections in the U.S.
2016 Arbitral Tribunal could make final
determination

Trends in Asias Security Order:

Towards Increased Competition and
Even Conflict?
Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer
EMAIL: c.thayer@adfa.edu.au