ln dris chapter, stud€nts will:

(a) understand the concepts ofdiscrete random variable, binomial variablc, aDd poisson
variable;

(b) understand that B(X) and Var(X) of a probability distribution are related to the mean and
variance respectively ol a frequency distribution;

(c) understand that the binomial distribution B(r,p) and poisson dislribution po(,tr) arc
€xamples ofprobabilily distributions; and know the menn and variance ofeach iistribution;

(d) recognise conditions unde. which the binomial or poisson distdbution can be use.l io
model a random variable and use them to model practical situations;

(e) use a graphic calculator to calculate probabilities;

(0 commcnt on thc appropajate usc of a binomial or poisson nrodel and the assumphons
made;

(g) us(r the fact thal fhc surn oftwo or rnore indcpendent poisson variables is a porsson
variablc;

(h) use the Poisson distribution as an apprcximation to the binomial disr!:ibution

whcrc
appropriatc (n > 50 atul ry) < 5, approximately).

1. l)iscrete Random Variablc

A discrcte randon variable (r.v.) -f has the following properties:
(i) it assumes a discrcte (countable) sel ofreal values (e_g. the nunber ofpeople waiting at a
bus-stop)
(ii)itassumesvaluesr/,_r-r,_rr,._,r,r,_._withcorrcspondingprobabiliticspT,p2,pr,..-,
p", -.. such that

llrU-uS--t

c25&2ai r
When referritrg to mndom variables, capital letters such as X { Z etc. are used. When
refening to the values these random variables assume, lower case letters such as .r, _jr, z etc.
are used. For instalrce, let X be the variable "ihe number obtain€d when a die is thrown".

Hence, X takes values { 1 , 2, 3, 4, 5, 6} .

I
P(x: 1): P(x:2): P(x:3): P(x:4): P(x:5):P(x:6)-7

)r1x=x;
: P(X: l) + P(X: 2) + P(,r: 3) + P(X= 4) + P(x= 5) + P(x= 6)
-l
. . X is a discrele random variable.

Example 1

LetXbcthevariable'thenumberoffoursobtainedwhentwofairdicearethrown.'Show
that X is a discrete random variable.

Solution:
The outcome could be one ofthe following: no fou$, one fiour or two fours-
Hence. X assumes the '"alues 0, I and 2 only. (

P(.{ 0, rt t'' nor q. z"o no, +t - I

5
I 5 ) - 'z 1Q)1 |
\ /ln.J 'd
"
P(X- 1) : P(l"t 4, 2"d nor 4) + P(l"t not 4, 2'd 4)
(t\(s\ (s(1\ E
l;llal-loiol- lr
P(X= 2) - P(1.' 4, 2.d 4)

:(:)t:)
?,

c15&26,?
 )r1x=";
: P(x: 0) + P(x: t) ). P(x = 2)

255r,+-= I
16 18 lt'
Jnu'lL
Hencc. X is a?andom r ariahle.

2- Probabilitv Distribution
We can w.ite the results in Example I in a table form which is known as the probabilitv
distribution of .{
X 0 2
P(X:,r) 25/36 t0/36 t/36

In general, probability distribution tabl€ shows all the possible values ofa random variable
a

X and their corresponding probabilities_

X
P(X- ir)

ttote: r,1x=r1= | .2LA/x' "'/x')

f
'"'r,*e,+r,+'7^=I

3. The Binomial Distribution

Consider an expe.iment with two possible outcomes, one ofwhich may be tenned
as
"success" and the other "failure,,. This is known as "Bemoulli Trial,,_ When this experiment
is repeated a number oftimes, it gives rise to a ',binomial distribution,,.

For example,
. toss a coin 6 times, consider obtaining a head on a single toss as a success,
and obtaining
a tail as a failure;
. throw a die 10 times, consider obtaining a score of'6' on a single throw
as a suciess and
not obtaining a '6' as a failure.

c25&26 3
 Conditions for a Bino

(i) The experiment coNists of, independent rcpcatcd trials-

(ii) Each tial has two possible outcomes: either a 'success' or a 'fiilure'-
(iii) The probability of a success is the same in each trial-

lfthe above coDditiols are satisfied, thcn the random variblc -tr representing the number of
successes in dre n trials is called a rrromi.rl random varieble-

3.1 Definition:
Ifthe binomial trial results in a success with probabilityp, theD we have
P(success) :t, & P(failure) - 4
whereq=l-p.
rr,L-,1
Thc probability distribution ofXis given by

1,2,...,n whcrc 0<p<l

h,l*u,

This random variable X has a hinomial distribution with parameters r and 17 that ls
represented sFnbolically as phtl i?,4 ot-
.

lacl

[xampl€ 2
A box contains a largc number ofballs in the proporlion ol1 white ball to 4 black balls.
Onc hundrcd and twenty balls are randomly drawrr, one by one and \rvilhout replacement
lrom lhe box. The r:rndom variablc X is thc nurDber of black balls drawn. State a suitable
model for the distribution ofx. Justily your answer.

Solution:
The binomial model is suitable because:
. there is a frxed munber ofindependent triats. (r : 120)
' each trial has two possible outcomcs: cither a 'success' (drawing a black ball) or a
'failure' (drawing a white ball).
. sioce the box contains a large nurnber of balls (r > 30), thc probability of drawing a
black ball is approximately a constant although the balls are drawn without rcplacement.

Note: The last point is dn dssumption made to ensure thal wc confonn to the conditionfor a
binomial motlelwhich rcquires lhdt the probdbility of 'succe*' is the sane in each trial.

c25&26 -4
 Example 3
Find the probability ofgettirg 5 heads in 12 flips ofa balanced coin.

Solution: Note the chamcteiistics of the binomial distribution here:

. The experimcnt consists of 12 independant trials (there is
. Each trial has two oossiblc ourcomes. either getting a heada (afixed number of trials).
.success')
or a tail (a
.fairure')
. li)()u)6)el(il .
The probability olgen'ng ,r\r6rh {'succcs" ; is rhc scme in each flrp.

l-et X bc lhe r.v- "the no. of heads olrtaincd jn t 2 0ips,..

.-State thc distribufion of x-B( t)._ +\

the random variable

P(,Y =5) -0.1934=0.193 (correctro 3 s.f.)

P,
'tka,4z
ll- ynb,L,l,,
i <2ND> <VAR> <A:binompdf(> hrJ4.{
Write dowi lteiequired <12> <,> <0.5> <,> <5> -, f't1'.r
probability )oa",
Key in the parameters for binompdf (n, p, ;)
to compute P(X = 5) : binompdf(l2, l/2, 5)
iJ"'t,".

Exanple 4 (Do it yourself)

An autoinobile salety engineer claims thai I in l0 automobile accidents is due to driver
fatigue. What is the probability that at most 2 of 5 automobile accideDts are due to driver
l'atiglrc?

Tasks:

1. Define thc mndom Lc1X be the t.v. "lhe no. ofaccidenis due to driver l'atigue".
variablc

distribution of l
x-B( , . ro )
2. State the
the random variable ": ' p:65 :

,1,r4/ ?(xt2)" P(x --o)l flx=l ydv --71

" i-ffiv--o tat Q',ru!4i,r)
l. Write down KN A >.ur.,lL](t < :.)/ t>
t t>(/><2>
probability
the required
gg!)dA <

''X " pyaryto ki o''*,,111",r,') f- ,,*f'fu fq<s 2)

l-t/optdt(s/u l/2)

rlr >'' -7i {< z

,rrutu - ,-6 |I/ k'',)
F(-:',/'(>'-4
 Example 5
In a large populaiion, it is found that on average 4 out of 5 people will rccover from a certain
disease. Find the probability that in a random sanlple of l0 people, at least 7 will recover
from the disease

Tasks:
I-elJlbe the r.v- "thc no. of pcople thai \\'ill reco\,er fiom the
1. Define the randorn
disease". .. - ( 1:-
Vanablc (/4/t/ t
7.,\"D,ttLt
t
/ i4
l. Statc the distribution of
the random variable
10. f :o8 .r-- B(r0, 0.8) .,*r'Tt,-;1"VG /)
p(x >'t):t ?(Xtb) *o.s7gl=0.879 (orrect to 3 s.f.)

-ElnOmC
,6)
l- Write down the requircd .87912611A4
Probability

Note that the GC is r.ulable to compute P(X > x).

Example 6
A social scientist claifirs that 507u ofall high school seniors capablc ofdoing colloge work
actually go to college. Find the probabilities (correct to 6 decimal places) that arnong 18
high school seniors capable oldoing college work, (a) cxactly l0 will go to college, (b) at
least 1 will go to college, (c) at lcast 2 but rot more than 6 will go to college.

l-el I be thc r.\. "tbc no. ofhigh sclrool senioN that wili go to
1. DeLine the random
Variable
collcgc".
,i . fc, trr r.r, n,:.r)l iJ
l. State the distribution of
the random variahlc
//: 18, 1i = o.5 ; "'>1)
Write down the required (a) P(x = r 0):0.166e24
I'robability
(b) P(x>1)=1- = 0.9eee96

G) P(2 <,r < 6) Elnoncclf{T$ .5,-61

-b inomcdf < 1e ' . sl
[
. r rB86e7814l
= 0.118870 L

c25&26 - 6
 ExamplcT
ln order to dctenniDe whether to accept a large batch ofmaDulactured articles, a sample of
20 is inspccted. Thc balch is ac.epted ifthere are no delective articles in the sarnple, and it
is rejected ifthere are two or more- Ifthcre is one defcclive article, a second sampl€ o[20 is
examined and the batch is acceptcd ilthis sccond samplc contains no delective afticlcs.
Previous experiencc has shown lolo ofthe articlcs ar:€ defeclive.
(D Calculate the probability that the batch is acceptcd after thc lirst sample is taken.
(iD Calculate the probability that the batch is rejected_
Solution:
Lct,Y be lhc r-v. "the numbcr of dclcctjve articlcs in a samplc of 20 alticlcs_.'
:
hr ihe lst sanple. if Xr 0. Lhe batch js acccpred.
If ,(1 ) 2. the barch is rejccled.
11' )( :
I, a seboud san4rlc of20 is exalnincd.

In lhe 2nd sample, if/r - 0, rhc batch is accepted.

Il Xr -: 0, thc batch is rcjccled

Given that p : 0,01, Xt B(20, 0.01) for i :1, 2.

-
(D P(batch is accepted aftcr the lsl samplc is taken)

:0.818

(i0 P(batch is reiectcd) = p(xr > 2)+p(Xr = t)p(x, > 0)

= 0.0469

J.2 Fxpcclation {nd \ ariancc

Expcctation oI a discrete random variablc

Ifwc have a statistical expcriment (lh.owing an unbiased dic 120 timcs and rccord thc
resuhs):

(a) A practical approach rcsults in atz4rrel c! dktributhh .ntl a fiesn v^l]oe

F reque n cy dis t ribu I io n table

Frequenc 120
'fhc nrean score is t 2r" 1x 15+2x 22 +,..+ 6x l8
\-r 1)O

c25&26 7
 (b) A tlreoretical apprcachrcsults in a probabiliE distribution a1d an e$pecte.l value (or
Pxoecled ,xean\

Supposc we toss an unbiased die and -Y is the 'number otl the die'.
Then thc litv distribution ofX is as shown:
Score, x I ) 3 4 5 6
P(X : x) 1/6 116 r/6 1t6 1/6 t/6

The expectation ofX(or expected value) is l'"ll

\ 6l (,,.:)"(,":). .(.,.*)
I
= (l+ +l+.-.+6) =1 (orl.5)
Notc:
(i) E(-\l is a constant, not a function ol-,11:
(ii) ECf) rcpreselts the average score that is expected to be obtained ifa suflicieltly trarge
numbcr olthe same cxperirnent wcrc repeated under the same set ofconditions.

Variance and Standard l)eviation

Wrile expcctation is a measurernent of ccntral tendeDcy (i.e. it attcmpts to locatc a tlrical
value about which the distribution clusters), variance is a measure oldispersion_

Variance measurcs lhe "spread" ofa sel ofobservations, i.c. how scattercd a distributioo
is. 11 is defined as the averagc ofthe squared dcviatioDs liom the mcan-

Standard d€viation is sirnply the positive squdre root ofthc variance That is,
Srrrr,laril Deviarion ../V a ricnc.

Expcctation and Varialce ofa binomial random variablc

IftblJ random varidbleXis such thatX- B(,,p), then

n(x)= np and Vat(X) = np(1 p) - npq

Note: The fonnula list MF15 rcfeN to expectation as the mean_ Byrunning a sirnulation ol
a binomial experimcnt, we can see that the expectation is thc average in the long run.

Examole 8
If on averagc 2 out of5 days are sunny, find the expected number ofsunny days in a week,
and the standard deviation.

c25&26 - 8
 Solotion:
Let X be the r.v. "lhe no. ofsunny days in a r.veek.'.
n=7; p:0.4; q:0.6. So I-B(7,0.4)
E(X)=np= : Va(.{) =np(1- -
d"r.iotion =
"tondu.,l n&-@ =

Examplc 9 (I)o it yourselo

'Ihe randorn variable X is binomially
distributed with param€terst /] and p_ Civcn that
E(x)': rr.l v-(,Y)
ll .findrhcralucsornandp.
:1

Solutiolr]
X - B(n, p)

E(x) = and Var({) :

Example l0
A pottery produces royal souvenir mugs. It is knowt thal 6% are defcctive.
If 20 nr Lgs art
selectcd at random, find the probability that ihe san4)le contains less than
5 defcctive mugs
and the most likely (most probablc) number ofdefectivc mugs.

Solutiorr]
Let l. be thc r.v. "the no_ ofdclcctivc mugs in the sample of 20,,.
n:20, p: I-06:. X- B(20,0.06)
P(r<5)=
Using GC, flonr the table, rhe event X: has the highest probability of occrurencc.
'lhus thcrc is lnost likely onc dci'cctivc
ntug. Nole: Most likcly+ E(,l,l!

Plotl Pl+tZ Platf

.29011 \V r =h i nor'lFdf (28,
.17{15 .68,, H)
.486+1
.02333
.00\t2
7.EE'rr

c25&26 -9
3-3 Fittins a Binomial Distribution
It is sometimes useful to compare experimental results with a theoretical distribution.
(a) Using the results obtained in an experiment, we can find the values of the parameters
a andp by using i a F,(X) - np
(b) Generate the binomial probability distribution forl-
Bfn ,p)
(c) To hnd the thcoretical expected frequencies, multiply each probability found by the
total frequency ofthe given distribution.

Examplc 1l
Groups ofsix people are chosen at random and the number, -!, ofpcople in each group who
normally wear glasses is recorded. The results obtained from 200 groups of six are shown
in thc table-

No. in group wearing glasses (.x) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

No- ofoccurrenccs l7 53 65 45 1B 2 0

Calculate, from the abovc datr, the mean value of]r.

Assuming that the situation can be modellcd by a bitromial dislibution having the same
nean as the one calculated above, state the appropfiate values for the binomial
paaameters /, and p.
Calculate thc theoretical fiequencies corrcsponding to thosc in the table-

Solution:
LetX be the r.v. "thc no- ofpeople who wear glasses in a g.oup".
From the frequency dislribution,

" \-.
lr"
L1
0(17)+1(53)+2(65)+3(45)+4(18)+5(2)+6(0)
200

Assuming that the situation follows a binomial distribution, i.e. ,f-' 8(6, p), then
I
i\ E{l.) = = 2 -
",a
p=-

.. I - Bro. 1r
l
Usirg GC, from tho lablc. the theoretical frequencies can be obtained by multiplying the
probabilitics by 200 (round offto the nearest integer).

No- in grouo wearins slasscs (n) 0 1 2 3 1 5 6

No. of occurrences l8 53 44 1'1 l 0

c25&26 l0
 Plot1 PlrtZ flct] Vr
rV r Ebi nonedf (6, 1 UII .oEtre I 1?jss Note: Due io lound-up errors
1 l.26iitlsz-6?s
rVzE26B*Vr 2 l.le922 l6s-E'r'r the lolal theolciical liequcncv
\Vl=l 3
Ir 1.219\E I'il.S96 is 201- flowcver. ihis docs
1.0!Zl lt6.16L
5
E 1.016'rE11.2922 not iilvalidatc the rcsults.
l.{0117 l-u7q35
\V6= H=B

4. the Poisson Distribution

The l'oisson distribution is uscl'ur forcoosidcring the distribution ofmndom events.
l,oisson
probabilities are used for data that arise from lhe number of occurences (X.)
ofan cvent per
unit timc or space e_g. 1he number ot yeasl cells per cm2 on I rnicroscopc slide.

Namcd alier the French mathematician Silreon poisson, it is also used as an approximdtion
to thc binorrial distriburion

I has a Poisson dishibution ifXis the r.v. "thc no- of occurrcnces of:ln event irr a givcn
interval of timc or space" such that:

(i) The event occurs in a specificd continuous intetwal of timc or space. At ary particular
point of iimc or spacc, an event either occuni or does no1 occur_
{ rr r l llc r'\ cnr nc, urs independently. i.e. th" uccunence ol l]ny evclt ill a p.ulicular;ntcrval
of tirne or spacc does not influencc the occun€lcc of thc cvent in any other disjr)int
inteNal o1-liiDc or space.
(iii)'lhe cvent occurs unifonnly, i.e. the expected number ofevellls (or mean) in a grven
jntcNal ol'tin1eorspaccis proportional
. to thc size ofthc intelv loftimcorspacc_
(iv) Ihc event is rare, i.e. the probability ofsucccss ofan event is small (or unlikcly).

Erarnplcs ofcvcnts which follow poisson distriblrtiol:

The nr-rrnber.,f
(a) flaws ir a given lcngth ofmatcrial,
(b) car accidents oD a particular stretch of road in one day,
(c) tclephone calls made to a switchboard in a given minute.
(d) pafticlcs emittcd by a ftdioaclive source in a givcn time,
(c) sandstorms occurring in a given pedo<I of timc.

4.1 Dcfirrition:
IfX is the r.v. "thc no. ofoccurences of an cvent in a given time interval or spacc_,,, then,y
is said 1() havc a llqi.ssqlt!islribution with paranleter )"_

c25&26 tl
 In short, X -Po(l)
The probability distribution of.r is

P(X:x)=e 2{ where r>tt, r=0,1,2,3...

Example l2
The number of times a radio set breaks down in a yeiu (52 weeks) may be taken to be a Poisson
variable with mean l
Calculate
(a) the probability that a radio set will break down morc than twice in a year,
(b) rhe probability that a mdio set will go for at least 3 years without brcaking dowrl
(c) the probability that a radio set will break down twice in one pa(icular week.

Solution:
(a) Let X be the r.v. '1he no. of tim{rs a radio (b) Let fbe the r.v. "the no. of times a mdio
sct breaLs down in a yeai'. sct brcaks down in I yeals".
So I- Po( ) So r- Po( ) i.c. r-Po( )
P(X>2)= otE
P(I =0) =0 04q8
- 0.0803

E 1 <2ND> <VAR> < C:Poissoncdf(>

(c) Lct tf bc thc r.v. "thc no. of timcs a radio
set breaks down iD I week".
-POrSSOnCdt(t,
S,' l,' n,f )
. 68436139 tl
P(ttl=2)=0.0001,31

Example 13
An insurance company receives on average 2 claims per week from a certain factory. Find the
probability that
(a) it receives more than 3 claims iD a given weelq
(b) it receives more than 2 claims in a giver fortnighl,
(c) it receives no claims on a given day, assuming that the factory operates on a 5-day week,
(d) the company receives no claim on cxactly 3 days in a 5-day wcck.

c25&26 - r2
 Solution:
(a) LctX bc the r.v. "the no. ofclaims per given day''.
week"-
X-Po( w- P,,( )
P(X >3)=
)
,0141
r.j
P( t4/ = 0) = 0.6 70

(b) Let I bc the r,v. "the no. ofclaims in 2

(d) Lel1) bc the r.v. "the no. ol days in a
week that the company receives no claim".
r- Po( ) ,-B( )
P(r>2)= = 0.'762 P(D = 3):0.328

(c) Let lil be dre r.v. "thc no. of claims on a

NOTE: A binomful distribttion has a fixed maxirnum number of surcesses whereas a

Por'ssar distribution does not.

Exarnple 14
A student js studing the distdbution ofbullfrogs in a large rural field wherc thcrc is an a,"eragc
of 500 bullfrogs. per 400 kr1r2. Onc part of the field i; identificd and dividcd ioto 50 equ,rl
squares' cacir with sidcs measuring 2 km- The student wishes to modcl
tbc distribulion ol.
bullfrogs in each squarc by usirrg (he poisson distdbutiqr with mean )-_
(i) State the value of7. and one assurnption made in using the l,oisson clistribuhon.
(ii) Four squarcs arc sclected al mndom. Fincl thc probability that two ofthese squares contain
no bullfrogs and each ofthe other two squarcs contains ai lcast 2 bullliogs-
(iii) The student suggesls using ihc samc tnodel on anothcr nual ficld ii anorhcr courtry.
Conrnrent on the suilability ofthc modcl in this siluation.

lofUlqq
(D Number ofsquares in an arca of400 k1[, :400/4: 100
Hence, 7, ..
One assumption made is lhat bullfrogs are randomly scattered ii each square.

(ii) LctX bc the r.v- '1he no. of trullfrogs in each squarc,. Then {- l,o( ).
The required probability =

=[t'(x=0)]rx[l p(X < t)1, x6

= 0.000251
(iii) 'lhc rnodel may not bc suitable bccause
ofthe diffcrent distributio ofbullfrogs in thc other
country duc to cnvironmcnlar / climatc r'ectors- As a rcsult, thc co.ditio^s for a poisson
distribution may no longcr apply_

c25&26 - t7
 Altemative aeasons: (l) The environment / climate in another couDtry may not allow for
an uniform occurence of bullfrogs throughout the ficld. (2) The environment in the freld
in another country may be very colducive in the brceding of bullfrogs and thus it is no
longer considered a rare event.

4.2 Expectation And Variance

IUa Po (1"), then E(x)- ),-Yar(X)

Example 15 (Do it yourselfl
(a) If x'' Po(2), find (i) P(x-4), (iDPtx <3), (iii) E(xl, (iv) va(,r')
ft) r r- Po(3.5), find (tP(y=0), (ii)P(r>2), (iii) var(r)

Solution:
(aXD :
P(x:4) (ii) P(t< 3) : (iiD E(.il - (iv) Var(x) :
(bxD P(y: 0) = (it p(r' > 2): 1-P(),<2) = (iii) va(! =

4.3 Use of Poisson Distribution to approximlte Binomiat l)istribution

The binomial distribution convcrges towards the Poisson distribution as thc nunlbcr oI
trials goes to infirity whilc the product lp remains fixed (i.e. p is vcry srnall)- Therelore
the Poisson distibulion with paranetcr 2" - ,/ can be used as an approximation to B(r, /)
of the binomial distribution ifr? is sufl-rciently large and p is sufficiently small.

Giver X -B(n,p), if n is large (z > 50) andp is small such that rp < 5, then

X- Po(zp) approximately.

Example l6
A factory packs bolts in boxes of 500. The probability that a bolt is defective is 0.002. Fird the
approrimate probabllity that a box contains 2 defective bolts.

Solution:
Let -f be thc r.v. "the no. ofdefective bolts in a box". SoX- B( )-

c25&26 14
 Siucer- 500(> 50) and ry = I (< 5 ),I-po( ) approximately_

P(X = 2) = 0. t84

Itxample l7
Each week a sccurity fiIm transports a largc sum of money belween two placcs. The
day on
which thcjounley is made is varied at raDdom, and in any weck each oftire fivc days lion
Monday to Fdday is equally likely to bc chosen.
(i) Calculate thc prlbability that, in a period of l0 wccks, Friclay wiil bc chosen ar
l(ast t linL(\.
(ii) The evcnt that' in a 4-wcek pcriod, the samc day is crrosen on all rour occasio,s is denoted
by S_- Show that rhe probability of s occun ing is 0.00g. rsrt dle the probability
that, in
one hundrcd 4 wcck periods, the evenl S will occur at lcast 3 times.

SolutiolL
(D LelX bc the r.v- "the no. oftimes Friday is chosen ir a pcriod oftcn weeks,'
.{-' B( .)
P(,].>l)= = o.322

(ii) P(S occurs) : P(all Mondays) + f(all Tucsdays) + . .. + l,(all F.idays)

: = 0.008

Let f be drc r-v. "the no. ol timcs S occurs in olle hundr.ed 4 week periods,,
)'- B( )

So )' - Po( ) approximately.

P(v>3)-

trxamplc 18
IfX- Po(3.4), find the mosr likcly value of,y.

Solutioni
Note: A I'oisson disrribution Plntl FIrtZ gi{tl
if )" is an integcr
is bimodal rVr EroiEsonpdf(3
A Poisson distribution is unimodal if L is rot an integcr.

-(11117
.111q7
Using GC, f(nu thc krblc. thc most likely valuc ol'X is 3. .is19
.zlr62
.1EgEZ
.11616
.'!716

L-25&26 t5
4-,1 Fittins a Poisson Distributiop
Steps:
(a) Fronr the liequency distdbution, find the mean ;.
(b) i
Use the mean as the parameter of Poisson {:lislribution, gcncmle the poisson
distribution forf - Po(;J.
(c) To find the thcorctical expected frequencies, inultiply cach probability found by thc
total frequency ofthc given distribution.

Exarnplc I9
The number olphone calls rr:ccived over a pcriod of 150 days was rccorded.

Number ofcalls 0 2 l 4

5l 54 6 3

(a) Find the avcrage nrmber of calls per day.

(b) Calculatc the frequencies of the compamblc Poisson distdbution.

Solution:
Oarl, tli14)_2(lot . t{o).t 4{l) 1.04
rr, I50

(b) Let X be the r.v. "the no. of phonc calls received per day"- So .Y- Po( 1.04),

Multiplying the probabilities by 150 (rounding offto thc nearest inteSer) gives the theoretical
Poisson frequencies.

Pl{t1 PlotZ Pl+t3

rVt Epoissonpdf( I 4 .lSlrrs sl-tls
.64, H 1 .3A7Sg 59.13S
\Vz E 158{,V I z .19115 :8.672
\V] =T 3 .06626 3.9197
.01723 Z-58r{f
\V9= .0035t .5]75q
E-2E -r'l .09317

Number ofcalls 0 2 3 4
'1
L

Number of days 53 55 29 t0 3

c25&26, i6
 4.5 T_hc Distribution ofTwo or More Indcpendcnt poisson Variables
IfXand Y arc two independent Poisson random variables with parameters p and L
respectivcly, that is, X- Po(p) and I- po(,,), then

X+)'-Po(p+?,)
Thc abovc result can be ext€nded to 3 or more independcnt poisson random variablcs.

If XL Xr, -.--.. X. are ll independent obsewations of a poisson r.v. L with pammeters )",
thcn.

X,+ X,+'..+ X,- Po(nL)

Examplc 20
During a certail morning, the nurnbcr ofpeople entcring a ccriailr LRT station pcr
minute has a
Poisson dislibution with mean J and the nurnber- of people Icaving thc station
ier minutc has an
independent Poissoo distribulion with mcan 2_
(a) Find, to 3 siSnilicant figurcs, the p.obabilily that during a particular minule in the monring.
(i) not more than one pcrson willettcr thc statiol,
fii) n,,,'ne will ..lrcr nr lcrre rhc.r.rrion,
(iii) exacily onc will enter thc shtior given th:rt thc number ol.people entering alld leaving
the statioo during thc particular rinute is cxactlv 4_
(b) Detennine thc least numbc., such thar rhe probrhiliiy of nur more than , people leaving
the station in a:10 second inteNal is srea1cr lhat 0.9i.

$ol!l!!rn:
Lct,{ be the r.v. "the no_ ofpeople cnlering l (iii) x+ Y- Po( )
ccrtain LRl station pcr lrrinute,, and I bc the
r.v. "the no. ofpeople leaving a certain Ll{T P(exactly one will entcr the stalion lno_
station pcr minute". ol'pple entcring & ,cavtng the stdtiun 4t

SoI'-Po( )and l/-Po( );Xand f are

irrdependent. P(X =l ft X +Y =4:)
P(X+Y =4)
(a) (i) l'(not more than I will enter the station)
= = 0.199 P(X:l),P(1.-3)
P(X +Y =4)
(ii) P(no onc willenter or lcavethestation)
:0 t54
= 0.00674

c25&26 - t7
O) Let Wbe the r,v- "the no. ofpeople Pl+tl fl+tz Plot3
leaving the station in a 30 second intewal". \Vr EFoissoncdf(
So I/- Po( 1) , Hlr
P(W < n)> 0.9s
0 .36?EE
I .7]976
Using GC, from rhc table.
the least value ofn is 3.
\v5-
L
I
.9197
.9S101
.9963rt
.999q1
E .99992

Example 21 (Do it yourself)

The number of flaws in a roll ofa paflicular design ofwallpaper is known to follow a poissolr
disldbution with mean 0.2. Calculate the p.obability that
(i) in each oftwo rolls selected at Dndom thcre are no flaws,
(ii) in a random sample of5 rolls ther.e will be a total ofexactly 2 flaws.

Solution:
Let -tr be the r-v. "the no, offlaws in a roll of a parlicular design ofwallpapei'. SoX- t o( ).
(i)X+Xr-po( ) (iD{+Xr+...+Xj-Po( )
..P{,rl+x,=0)= ..P(;Y r,Y. ,...- X,- 2) -
Example 22
An advcrtising display contains a large nurnber of light bLrlbs which are continually being
switched on and off- Individual lights fail at ra0dom timcs, and each day the display is inspcr:tcd
and any failcd lights are rcplaced- Thc number of lights that lail in irny one day period has a
Poisson distriblLtion with mcalr 2-2-
(a) Find the probability that at least four lights will need to bc replaced on a particular day_
(b) Find the probability that in a period ofseven days, at lcast four lights need to be replacgd on
at least two days.
(c) Caiculate the least number ofconsccutive days after which the probability of at least one
light having to be rcplaced excecds 0.9999.

Solution:
LetX be the r-v. "the no- oflights that fail in a o[e-day period". SoX^,po( ).

(a) P(-r > 4) = =0.1806!0.181

(b) Let y be the r.v.'1he no. oldays out o[seven where at least lour lights need to be replaccd,,
So f- B( ).
P( )' > 2) = * 0.169

c25&26 l8
(c) Let Itl be the r.v. "dre no. of lights that fail and are replaced in z consecutive days"-
So W- Po(2-2 ).

> 0.9999
t p(n = 0) > 0.9999
P(n/=0)<0.0001

when r7 :4,
P(X = 0) =0,00015
when z = 5, P(X = 0) =0-000017
when 4 :6, P(X = 0) = 0.0000019

Using GC, frorn the table. the least number ofconsecutive davs is 5-

c25&26 - 19