CBS NEWS POLL

The Race for the 2016 Republican Nomination: Trump Leads
July 29-August 2, 2015
prim. Next year, are you more likely to vote in a Republican presidential primary or caucus, or a Democratic primary or
caucus or aren't you likely to vote in a primary or caucus at all?

Republican primary
Democratic primary
Not likely to vote
Never vote
Don’t know/No answer

** REGISTERED VOTERS **
Total Rep
Dem Ind
%
%
%
%
38
84
3
31
34
3
81
21
16
8
11
26
*
1
12
5
5
21

Q1-Q16 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
Q17. Which one of these candidates would you like to see the Republican Party nominate for President in 2016?

Donald Trump
Jeb Bush
Scott Walker
Mike Huckabee
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Ben Carson
Rand Paul
Chris Christie
Bobby Jindal
Rick Perry
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rick Santorum
Jim Gilmore
Carly Fiorina
Lindsey Graham
Someone Else (vol.)
None of them (vol.)
Don't know/No answer
*Less than 0.5%

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Total Rep
Ind
%
%
%
24
24
22
13
13
10
10
8
13
8
10
5
6
6
6
6
5
7
6
7
5
4
2
9
3
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
*
*
*
1
1
1
*
3
3
4
9
9
8

Q18. Who would be your second choice for the Republican nomination for president?

Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
Rand Paul
Scott Walker
Mike Huckabee
Donald Trump
Carly Fiorina
John Kasich
Rick Perry
Chris Christie
Bobby Jindal
Lindsey Graham
Rick Santorum
George Pataki
Someone Else
Jim Gilmore
None of them
Don't know/No answer
*Less than 0.5%

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Total Rep
Ind
%
%
%
11
11
8
10
10
10
10
10
11
8
5
14
8
7
11
8
7
10
7
9
2
6
7
5
5
6
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
3
1
5
3
3
1
1
*
2
2
3
1
*
*
*
*
*
*
1
2
1
3
9
11
7

Q19. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these Republican presidential candidates would you be
most dissatisfied with as the Republican nominee?

Donald Trump
Jeb Bush
Chris Christie
Rand Paul
Lindsey Graham
Ted Cruz
Rick Perry
Marco Rubio
Mike Huckabee
Rick Santorum
Ben Carson
Carly Fiorina
Bobby Jindal
George Pataki
Scott Walker
Jim Gilmore
John Kasich
Someone Else
None of them
Don't know/No answer
*Less than 0.5%

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Total Rep
Ind
%
%
%
27
26
26
18
15
23
10
9
13
7
8
5
6
7
5
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
2
2
4
2
3
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
*
*
*
*
*
2
1
3
9
10
7

Q20. Regardless of how you intend to vote in 2016, which one of these Republican presidential candidates do you think
has the best chance of winning the general election in November 2016?

Donald Trump
Jeb Bush
Scott Walker
Rand Paul
Ted Cruz
Mike Huckabee
Marco Rubio
Chris Christie
Rick Perry
Ben Carson
John Kasich
Rick Santorum
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Bobby Jindal
Someone Else
None of them
Don't know/No answer

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Total Rep
Ind
%
%
%
26
25
30
23
21
24
8
9
6
5
4
7
4
4
3
4
5
1
4
4
4
2
2
4
2
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
*
*
*
1
*
*
1
2
*
16
17
15

*Less than 0.5%

Q21 CUT
Q22a.In general, do you think the Republican candidates for president are mostly (explaining what they would do as
president), or mostly (attacking the other Republicans in the race)?

Mostly explaining
Mostly attacking
Depends
Don't know/No answer
Q23-Q27 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE

** REGISTERED VOTERS **
Total Rep
Dem Ind
%
%
%
%
26
46
11
22
57
35
76
59
4
4
3
5
13
14
11
14

Q29. We'd like to get your opinion of some public figures. For each of the following people, please say whether your
opinion is favorable, not favorable, undecided, or whether you haven't heard enough about him or her yet to have an
opinion.
a.

Jeb Bush

Favorable
Not favorable
Undecided
Haven't heard enough
Don't know/No answer
b.

24
22
12
39
3

45
10
12
31
2

7
34
10
46
3

22
22
13
39
4

46
11
13
28
2

27
59
9
4
1

47
37
14
2
*

8
83
3
5
1

25
56
10
5
3

47
38
12
2
1

20
19
10
50
2

37
4
15
43
2

4
32
8
54
2

19
19
8
51
3

38
6
12
43
2

Donald Trump

Favorable
Not favorable
Undecided
Haven't heard enough
Don't know/No answer
d.

Apr15d
%
10
31
18
39
1

Marco Rubio

Favorable
Not favorable
Undecided
Haven't heard enough
Don't know/No answer
c.

************ REGISTERED VOTERS ************
Total Rep
Dem Ind
Rep Primary Voters
%
%
%
%
%
30
47
16
29
43
40
22
57
40
29
17
20
14
17
20
12
11
13
12
8
1
*
2
*

Scott Walker

Favorable
Not favorable
Undecided
Haven't heard enough
Don't know/No answer
*Less than 0.5%

Apr11b
20
60
16
4
0

Q30. How confident are you in Jeb Bush’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy--are you very confident,
somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don't know/No answer

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Total Rep
Ind
%
%
%
17
19
16
46
53
36
20
17
22
13
7
24
4
4
3

Q31. How confident are you in Jeb Bush’s ability to make the right decisions about dealing with America’s adversaries-are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don't know/No answer

18
50
18
11
4

19
55
16
6
4

18
41
18
22
2

Q32. How confident are you in Jeb Bush’s ability to make the right decisions about illegal immigration--are you very
confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don't know/No answer

13
45
22
17
4

13
49
21
13
4

11
37
24
25
3

Q32a. Do you think Jeb Bush says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear?
Says what he believes
What people want to hear
Don't know/No answer

46
44
10

48
40
12

42
52
6

Q33. How confident are you in Marco Rubio’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy--are you very
confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don't know/No answer

13
48
18
10
11

17
46
17
9
12

6
55
19
10
10

Q34. How confident are you in Marco Rubio’s ability to make the right decisions about dealing with America’s
adversaries--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don't know/No answer

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Total Rep
Ind
%
%
%
19
22
14
39
40
39
19
15
26
10
11
10
12
12
11

Q35. How confident are you in Marco Rubio’s ability to make the right decisions about illegal immigration--are you very
confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don't know/No answer

17
40
19
14
10

16
41
19
13
11

20
37
19
15
9

Q35a. Do you think Marco Rubio says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to
hear?
Says what he believes
What people want to hear
Don't know/No answer

48
36
16

49
37
14

47
35
19

Q36. How confident are you in Donald Trump’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy--are you very
confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don't know/No answer

47
24
9
19
1

50
26
8
16
-

43
21
11
23
2

Q37. How confident are you in Donald Trump’s ability to make the right decisions about dealing with America’s
adversaries--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don't know/No answer

27
32
16
23
2

30
32
15
23
1

24
30
18
22
6

Q38. How confident are you in Donald Trump’s ability to make the right decisions about illegal immigration--are you
very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?

Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don't know/No answer

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Total Rep
Ind
%
%
%
39
40
35
26
29
22
9
7
15
24
22
26
2
1
2

Q38a. Do you think Donald Trump says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to
hear?
Says what he believes
What people want to hear
Don't know/No answer

79
20
1

79
20
1

77
22
1

Q39. How confident are you in Scott Walker’s ability to make the right decisions about the economy--are you very
confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don't know/No answer

23
30
13
13
21

26
29
12
12
21

18
33
14
13
22

Q40. How confident are you in Scott Walker’s ability to make the right decisions about dealing with America’s
adversaries--are you very confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don't know/No answer

17
37
12
11
23

18
36
13
10
22

15
39
11
12
23

Q41. How confident are you in Scott Walker’s ability to make the right decisions about illegal immigration--are you very
confident, somewhat confident, not too confident, or not at all confident?
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Don't know/No answer

18
34
13
14
22

17
36
13
13
21

19
31
11
16
23

Q41a. Do you think Scott Walker says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to
hear?

Says what he believes
What people want to hear
Don't know/No answer

REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Total Rep
Ind
%
%
%
49
51
47
28
27
30
22
22
23

Q42-Q49 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
Q50. Has your opinion of Donald Trump changed over the past month, or hasn't it changed? (If changed ask:) Has it
changed for the better of for the worse?

Changed for the better
Changed for the worse
Not changed
Don't know/No answer

************ REGISTERED VOTERS ************
Total Rep
Dem Ind
Rep Primary Voters
%
%
%
%
%
13
23
5
11
23
23
13
32
23
12
62
61
61
63
63
3
2
2
4
2

Q50a. Which comes closest to your feelings about the way things are going in Washington – enthusiastic, satisfied but
not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?

Enthusiastic
Satisfied but not enthusiastic
Dissatisfied but not angry
Angry
Don't know/No answer

************ TOTAL RESPONDENTS ************
Total Rep Primary Voters
Dem Primary Voters
%
%
%
2
1
2
20
10
25
48
46
47
28
42
25
3
1
1

Sep14b
%
2
19
49
28
3

Q51-Q55 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
Q56. Overall, would you say most recent immigrants to the United States contribute to this country, or do most of them
cause problems?

Contribute
Cause problems
Both (Vol.)
Depends on origin (Vol.)
Don't know/No answer
Q57-Q59 HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE

59
28
5
1
8

43
42
5
*
10

71
19
3
2
5

59
26
6
1
8

Apr10b
49
31
7
2
11

Q60. Which comes closest to your view about illegal immigrants who are living in the US? (They should be allowed to
stay in the US and eventually apply for citizenship), they should be allowed to stay in the US legally, but not be allowed
to apply for citizenship or (they should be required to leave the US).

Stay and apply for citizenship
Stay in the US legally, but not apply
Required to leave the US
Don't know/No answer

* TOTAL RESPONDENTS *
Total Rep
Dem Ind
%
%
%
%
61
46
78
59
9
9
8
9
26
41
13
25
5
3
1
7

Apr15d
%
57
11
29
3

Q61. Do you think ILLEGAL immigrants coming to this country today take jobs away from American citizens, or do they
mostly take jobs Americans don't want?

Take jobs away
Take jobs Americans don't want
Both (Vol.)
Don't know/No answer

27
63
5
4

42
49
6
2

18
73
4
4

24
65
6
5

Feb13a
29
59
9
3

Q62. Compared to American citizens, how likely do you think ILLEGAL immigrants are to commit crimes -- are ILLEGAL
immigrants more likely, less likely or about as likely to commit crimes as American citizens?

More likely
Less likely
About as likely
Don't know/No answer

22
17
58
3

33
11
53
3

17
23
59
1

19
16
60
5

May07a
30
14
53
3

Q62a-Q62c HELD FOR FUTURE RELEASE
Q62d. Generally speaking, do you prefer a political candidate who pays for their campaign (by raising money through
political donations), who pays for their campaign by (using their own personal wealth), or doesn’t it matter to you either
way?

Political donations
Personal wealth
Doesn't matter
Don't know/No answer

** REGISTERED VOTERS **
13
9
19
12
28
32
23
28
56
59
56
55
3
1
2
5

Total Respondents

UNWEIGHTED
1252

Total Republicans
Total Democrats
Total Independents

WEIGHTED

353
372
527

330
370
553

1047

962

Total Republican Registered Voters
Total Democrat Registered Voters
Total Independent Registered Voters

320
317
410

283
290
389

Total Republican Primary Voters
Total Democratic Primary Voters

408
362

364
327

Total Registered Voters