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i t

interest

t to

t society

i t by

b the

th efficient

ffi i t application

li ti off

scientific principles by

• Refining existing products

• Designing new products or processes

1-1 Statistics in Engineering

1-1 Statistics in Engineering

presentation, analysis, and use of data to

• Make decisions

• Solve problems

• Design products and processes

1-1 Statistics in Engineering

understanding variability.

• By variability, we mean successive observations of a

system or phenomenon do not produce exactly the same

result.

l

• Statistics gives us a framework for describing this

variability and for learning about potential sources of

variability.

1-1 Statistics in Engineering

Engineering Example

automotive engine application. The engineer is considering

establishing the design specification on wall thickness at 3/32

i h but

inch b t is

i somewhath t uncertain

t i about

b t the

th effect

ff t off this

thi decision

d ii

on the connector pull-off force. If the pull-off force is too low, the

connector may fail when it is installed in an engine. Eight

prototype units are produced and their pull-off forces measured

(in pounds): 12.6, 12.9, 13.4, 12.3, 13.6, 13.5, 12.6, 13.1.

1-1 Statistics in Engineering

Engineering Example

body of data - say up to about 20 observations.

• This

Thi plot

l t allows

ll us to

t see easily

il two

t features

f t off the

th data;

d t the

th

location, or the middle, and the scatter or variability.

1-1 Statistics in Engineering

Engineering Example

are built and pull-off force measured.

• The

Th dot

d t diagram

di can be

b usedd to

t compare two

t setst off data

d t

wall thicknesses.

1-1 Statistics in Engineering

E i

Engineering

i Example

E l

• Since pull

pull-off

off force varies or exhibits variability

variability, it is a

random variable.

• A random variable

variable, X

X, can be model by

X=μ+ε

where μ is a constant and ε a random disturbance.

1-1 Statistics in Engineering

11-22 Collecting Engineering Data

– A retrospective study using historical data

– An observational study

– A designed experiment

11-2.4

2.4 Designed Experiments

11-2.4

2.4 Designed Experiments

11-2.4

2.4 Designed Experiments

11-2.5

2.5 Observing Processes Over Time

Whenever data are collected over time it is important to plot

the data over time. Phenomena that might affect the system

or process often become more visible in a time-oriented plot

and the concept of stability can be better judged.

Figure 1-8

Fi 1 8 The

Th dot

d t diagram

di illustrates

ill t t variation

i ti bbutt d

does

not identify the problem.

11-2.5

2.5 Observing Processes Over Time

more information than a dot diagram.

11-2.5

2.5 Observing Processes Over Time

Figure 1-10

1 10 Deming

Deming’s

s funnel experiment.

experiment

11-2.5

2.5 Observing Processes Over Time

Figure 1-11

1 11 Adjustments applied to random disturbances

over control the process and increase the deviations from

the target.

11-2.5

2.5 Observing Processes Over Time

Figure 1-12

1 12 Process mean shift is detected at observation

number 57, and one adjustment (a decrease of two units)

reduces the deviations from target.

11-2.6

2.6 Observing Processes Over Time

concentration data.

11-2.6

2.6 Observing Processes Over Time

Figure 1

1-14

14 Enumerative versus analytic study.

1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

knowledge of the basic physical mechanism that relates

several variables.

Example: Ohm’s Law

Current = voltage/resistance

I = E/R

I = E/R + ε

1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

scientific knowledge of the phenomenon,

phenomenon but is not

directly developed from our theoretical or first-

principles

p p understanding g of the underlying

y g mechanism.

1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

Example

p

Suppose we are interested in the number average

molecular weight (Mn) of a polymer. Now we know that Mn

is related to the viscosity of the material (V), and it also

depends on the amount of catalyst (C) and the temperature

(T ) in the polymerization reactor when the material is

manufactured. The relationship between Mn and these

variables is

Mn = f(V,C,T)

say, where the form of the function f is unknown.

1-3 Mechanistic and Empirical Models

regression model.

Figure 1-15 Three-dimensional plot of the wire and pull

strength data

data.

Figure 1-16 Plot of the predicted values of pull strength

from the empirical model

model.

1-4 Probability and Probability Models

risks involved in statistical inference, that

is, risks involved in decisions made every

day.

• Probability provides the framework for

the study and application of statistics

statistics.

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