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C mu

Ti sao phi tnh c mu


Mt cu hi lun t ra vi nh
nghin cu l cn phi iu tra bao
nhiu n v mu n i din v
c th suy rng cho tng th,
phn tch c ngha v kt qu
nghin cu c gi tr v mt khoa
hc?

Lm th no xc nh c
mu?
Mt cch n gin v d nht l da
vo cc nghin cu c cng ni dung
c thc hin trc ly mu.
C th hi kin cc chuyn gia,
nhng ngi c kinh nghim thc hin
cc d n iu tra kho st.
C th tnh ton theo cng thc tnh
mu.

Cng thc tnh c mu


Vi trng hp c mu ln v khng
bit tng th.

z ( p.q )
n
2
e

Tnh c mu
Trong :
n= l c mu
z= gi tr phn phi tng ng vi tin cy
la chn (nu tin cy 95% th gi tr z l
1,96)
p= l c tnh t l % ca tng th
q = 1-p
thng t l p v q c c tnh 50%/50%
l kh nng ln nht c th xy ra ca tng th.
e = sai s cho php (+-3%, +-4%,+-5%...)

V d
Tnh c mu ca mt cuc trng cu
kin trc mt cuc bu c vi
tin cy l 95% vi gi tr z tng ng
l 1.96, sai s cho php l nm trong
khong +5%. Gi nh p*q ln nht
c th xy ra l 0.5*0.5.
C mu s c tnh l:

C mu
2

1.96 (0.5 * 0.5)


n

385
2
0.05

Tnh c mu

1 N 1 1 k

n
N P.Q z1 / 2
N

1
2

Tip

N = s lng n v trong tng th.
P = t l tng th.
Q = 1-P,
k= sai s cho php.

Tnh c mu
Nu tng th nh v bit c tng
th th dng cng thc sau:
Vi n l c mu, N l s lng tng
th, e l sai s tiu chun

V d
Tnh c mu ca mt cuc iu tra
vi
Tng th l N= 2000, chnh xc l
95%, sai s tiu chun l +- 5%.
-- c mu s c tnh l:

V d

Bng c mu
Bng 1. C mu vi sai s cho php l 3%, 5%, 7% v
10% tin cy l 95% v P=0.5.
C ca
tng th

C mu(n) vi sai s cho php :


3%

5%

7%

10%

500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2,000

*
*
*
*
*
*
714

222
240
255
267
277
286
333

145
152
158
163
166
169
185

83
86
88
89
90
91
95

Bng c mu (tip)
Bng 1. C mu vi sai s cho php l 3%, 5%, 7% v
10% tin cy l 95% v P=0.5.
C ca
tng th

C mu(n) vi sai s cho php :


3%

5%

7%

10%

3,000

811

353

191

97

4,000

870

364

194

98

5,000

909

370

196

98

6,000

938

375

197

98

7,000

959

378

198

99

8,000

976

381

199

99

9,000

989

383

200

99

Bng c mu (tip)
Bng 1. C mu vi sai s cho php l 3%, 5%, 7% v
10% tin cy l 95% v P=0.5.
C ca
tng th

C mu(n) vi sai s cho php :


3%

5%

7%

10%

10,000

1,000

385

200

99

15,000

1,034

390

201

99

20,000

1,053

392

204

100

50,000

1,087

397

204

100

100,000

1,099

398

204

100

>100,000 1,111

400

204

100

Trng s

Trng s
C nhiu cuc iu tra bn phi s
dng trng s trong phn tch d
liu.
Trng s ny phi c tnh ton.
Bn cn phi hiu r v trng s ny.
Mc ch s dng trng s: i din
cho tng th tt hn.

Trng s
Trong s c tnh bng phn s
nghch o ca phn s chn mu:
W= N/n

Ti sao li s dng trng s


Chn mu phn tng khng t l.
Hiu chnh vi nhng trng hp khng tr
li iu tra.
Hiu chnh vi thit k mu m xc sut la
chn n v mu khng ngang nhau.
Trong hu phn tng.
V d: Nu n v iu tra X c kh nng
c la chn bng mt na n v Y c, th
n v X s c trng s l 2 c c hi
bng n v Y.

V d
Trong v d v la chn 100 sinh vin trong
c 50 sinh vin dn tc kinh v 50 sinh
vin dn tc thiu s t mu 2000 sinh
vin vi 100 sinh vin dn tc thiu s.
Nh vy sinh vin xc sut la chn ca
sinh vin dn tc thiu s l trong khi
ca dn tc kinh l 1/38. ph hp vi
s phn b t l ca tng th, ta phi s
dng trng s.

Trng s
Vi v d trn, th phn tng nhm
sinh vin dn tc kinh s c trng s
l 38 v sinh vin dn tc thiu s s
c trng s l 2.

V d
Tng th: 2500 h gia nh thuc nhm
ngho v 1200 h gia nh thuc nhm
giu.
Mt cuc iu tra c thc hin vi 2
phn tng: phn tng h giu v phn
tng h ngho.
Mi phn tng la chn 100 h gia nh.
Mu la chn nhiu hn so vi t l
ca phn tng h giu.

V d
Nu chng ta tnh trung bnh thu
nhp ca h gia nh theo mu th
thu nhp qu cao so vi thc t.
c lng thu nhp trung bnh
ca dn c khng b sai lch, chng
ta cn gia trng khu vc h giu thp
t hn khu vc h ngho.
Vic ny c th thc hin d dng vi
Stata.

V d.
Gi thit rng, trung bnh thu nhp ca nhm h
ngho l 12000$, v ca nhm h giu l 25000$.
Trung bnh thu nhp khng c trng s:
{100 x 12000$+100 x 25000$}/200=$18,500
Trung bnh c trng s:
- Trng s nhm h ngho: W1= 2500/100=25
- Trng s nhm h giu: W2= 1200/100=12
- {100 x 1200$ x 25 + 100 x 2500$ x 12}/ {100 x
25+ 100 x 12}= 16,216.20$
Chng ta c th thy rng thc hin gia trng s
chnh xc hn so vi thc t v trong mu c qu
nhiu h thuc phn tng h giu.

Bi tp
Mt cuc kho st cc nh u t chng
khon vi s lng l 1000 nh u t. Thu
c kt qu nh sau:
100 nh u t c vn <100 triu ng.
300 nh u t c vn t 100-500tr ng.
600 nh u t c vn t 500tr tr ln.

Bi tp
Khi ly thng tin t y ban chng khon
quc gia th thy t l phn b nh sau:
20% nh u t c vn < 100tr ng
60% nh u t c vn 100-500tr ng.
20% nh u t c vn <500tr ng.
Hy tnh trng s kt qu thu c
s liu ph hp vi thc t?

Bi tp
ti: Tm hiu nhu cu tiu dng
thc phm an ton ca ngi dn H
Ni.
Xy dng k hoch thc hin ca
ti trn.