NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

October 2015
New Hampshire Questionnaire
Screener
<Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older?
Do you consider your permanent home address to be in New Hampshire?
HH SELECTION – LANDLINE FRAME ONLY
GENDER GUESS
October 2015: Registered independents n=451, MOE +/- 4.6%; September 2015: Registered independents n=413, MOE +/- 4.8%; July
2015: Registered independents n=395, MOE +/- 4.9%
Now, thinking about the 2016 presidential primary in New Hampshire are you
more likely to vote in the New Hampshire:
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
REGISTERED INDEPENDENTS
Republican primary
37
36
39
Democratic primary
35
30
28
Wait to vote in the general election in November
26
33
30
Not planning to vote
2
1
2
Total
100
100
100
October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=450, MOE +/ -4.6%; September 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=413, MOE +/- 4.8%; July 2015:
Potential Republican Electorate: n=401, MOE +/- 4.9; February 2015: Potential Republican Electorate: n=381, MOE +/- 5.0%
If the 2016 Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire were held
today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who
are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate):
October 2015
September 2015
July 2015
February 2015
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
NA
Donald Trump
21
28
21
NA
Carly Fiorina
16
6
2
14
18
Jeb Bush
11
8
5
6
Marco Rubio
10
3
6
7
Ben Carson
10
11
6
13
Chris Christie
7
5
7
NA
John Kasich
6
12
5
6
Ted Cruz
6
5
4
14
Rand Paul
5
5
3
7
Mike Huckabee
1
2
<1
<1
NA
George Pataki
2
<1
<1
1
Lindsey Graham
1
<1
<1
<1
1
Rick Santorum
<1
1
<1
NA
Bobby Jindal
<1
<1
<1
NA
Jim Gilmore
12
15
Scott Walker
NA
4
<1
<1
1
Rick Perry
NA
13
Undecided
6
8
13
Total

100

100

October 2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=412, MOE +/- 4.8%; September
2015: Potential Republican Electorate with a Candidate Preference: n=348, MOE +/- 5.3%
Who is your second choice for the 2016 Republican presidential primary in
New Hampshire (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a
candidate):
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
October 2015
September 2015
WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Carly Fiorina
18
12
Ben Carson
15
16
Marco Rubio
11
9
Jeb Bush
10
10
Chris Christie
9
6
John Kasich
8
6
Donald Trump
8
9
Rand Paul
6
5
Ted Cruz
6
9
Mike Huckabee
3
3
Bobby Jindal
2
1
<1
Lindsey Graham
1
1
Rick Santorum
1
<1
<1
George Pataki
<1
<1
Jim Gilmore
Scott Walker
NA
4
Rick Perry
NA
2
Undecided
2
7
Total
100
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire October 2015; Page 1

100

100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE
+/- 5.2%; July 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=329, MOE +/- 5.4%
If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire were held
today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who
are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate):
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Lincoln Chafee
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Undecided
Total

October 2015
48
39
2
2
1
9
100

September 2015
49
38
1
1
2
8
100

July 2015
34
47
2
5
1
11
100

October 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=404, MOE +/- 4.9%; September 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=356, MOE +/- 5.2%; July 2015:
Potential Democratic Electorate: n=329, MOE +/- 5.4%; February 2015: Potential Democratic Electorate: n=309, MOE +/- 5.6%
If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary in New Hampshire were held
today, whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who
are undecided yet leaning toward a candidate and if Vice President Joe
Biden enters the race):
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Bernie Sanders
Hillary Clinton
Joe Biden
Martin O'Malley
Jim Webb
Lincoln Chafee
Undecided
Total

October 2015
42
28
18
2
1
1
9
100

September 2015
41
32
16
1
1
<1
8
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: New Hampshire October 2015; Page 2

July 2015
32
42
12
3
1
2
10

February 2015
13
69
8
<1
2
NA
7

100

100