You are on page 1of 35

'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHUV1R2FWREHU

6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\5HVHDUFK'HSDUWPHQW

)LQQ5RDU$XQH7RUVWHLQ%\HDQG
7RU$UQW-RKQVHQ
*DVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQ1RUZD\
*RRGRUEDGIRUWKHFOLPDWH"

5HYLVHGYHUVLRQ

$EVWUDFW
1RUZD\KDVDEXQGDQWJDVUHVRXUFHVLQWKH1RUWK6HD7KH1RUZHJLDQJDVSURGXFWLRQDFFRXQWVIRU
SHUFHQWRIWKHZRUOGSURGXFWLRQDQGSHUFHQWRIWKH(XURSHDQJDVSURGXFWLRQ'HVSLWHKXJHJDV
SURGXFWLRQDQGUHVRXUFHVJDVLVQRWXVHGIRUHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQLQ1RUZD\([FHVVFDSDFLW\
FKHDSK\GURSRZHUORZHOHFWULFLW\SULFHVDQGSROLWLFDOUHVWULFWLRQVKDYHSUHYHQWHGJDVEDVHGSRZHU
JHQHUDWLRQLQ1RUZD\/DWHO\LPSRUWRIHOHFWULFSRZHUIURPQHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHVZLWKIRVVLOIXHO
EDVHGSRZHUV\VWHPVKDVOHGLQGXVWU\VSRNHVPHQDQGYDULRXVSROLWLFLDQVWRSURSRVHEXLOGLQJRI
VHYHUDOJDVSRZHUSODQWVLQ1RUZD\(OHFWULFVHOIVXIILFLHQF\GRPHVWLFQDWXUDOJDVXWLOL]DWLRQDQG
HQYLURQPHQWDOEHQHILWVWKURXJKUHGXFHGFRDOSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQDEURDGDUHXVHGDVDUJXPHQWVWR
VXSSRUWFRQVWUXFWLRQRIJDVSRZHUSODQWVLQ1RUZD\
6HYHUDOLQGXVWULDOJURXSVKDYHDSSOLHGIRUFRQFHVVLRQWREXLOGQDWXUDOJDVILUHGSRZHUVWDWLRQV
,QLWLDOO\WKH1RUZHJLDQ3ROOXWLRQ&RQWURO$XWKRULW\ 6)7 GHQLHGHPLVVLRQVFRQFHVVLRQUHIHUULQJWR
1RUZHJLDQREOLJDWLRQVXQGHUWKH.\RWRSURWRFRO,Q0DUFKKRZHYHUDPDMRULW\LQSDUOLDPHQW
YRWHGDJDLQVWWKH6)7GHFLVLRQDQGDGYLVHGWKH*RYHUQPHQWWRLVVXHFRQFHVVLRQ7KHFRUH
DUJXPHQWIURPERWKVLGHVZDVWKHHQYLURQPHQWDOLPSDFWVIURPJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQ1RUZD\6)7
DUJXHGWKDWLQFUHDVHGSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQZRXOGOHDGWRORZHUHQHUJ\SULFHVDQGWKHUHE\KLJKHU
HQHUJ\FRQVXPSWLRQDQGPRUHSROOXWLRQ7KHYLHZRIWKHPDMRULW\RI3DUOLDPHQWZDVWKDW1RUZHJLDQ
JDVSRZHUZLOOUHSODFHFRDOSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQ'HQPDUNDQG*HUPDQ\DQGWKXVJLYHORZHUWRWDO
FOLPDWHJDVHPLVVLRQVVLQFHFRDOEDVHGSRZHUUHVXOWVLQPXFKKLJKHUHPLVVLRQVSHUXQLWRIHQHUJ\
WKDQJDVSRZHUGRHV
7KH1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHPDQGPDUNHWLVYHU\FRPSOH[DQGWKHUHIRUHHQHUJ\SROLF\PHDVXUHV
PD\UHVXOWLQQXPHURXVGLIIHUHQWLPSDFWVDQGUHSHUFXVVLRQV7KHUHIRUHZHFDUU\RXWDQXPEHURI
PRGHOVLPXODWLRQVWRDQDO\]HWKHLPSDFWVIURPLQWURGXFWLRQRI1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQWR
WKLVPDUNHW:HDSSO\DQHTXLOLEULXPPRGHOIRUWKH1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\PDUNHW,QRUGHUWRGHVFULEH
LPSRUWDQWLQWUD\HDUVXSSO\VLGHWHFKQRORJ\DQGIXHOVXEVWLWXWLRQWKH1RUPRG7PRGHOKDVDGHWDLOHG
WLPHUHVROXWLRQ2XUFDOFXODWLRQVVKRZWKDWQRQHRIWKHWZRYLHZVDUHFRPSOHWHO\ULJKW7KH
DJJUHJDWHHIIHFWRQFOLPDWHHPLVVLRQVIURPSURGXFLQJJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\PD\EHSRVLWLYHRU
QHJDWLYHDQGGHSHQGVKHDYLO\RQWKHDVVXPSWLRQVPDGH
.H\ZRUGV(OHFWULFLW\PDUNHW*DVSRZHU&OLPDWHSROLF\(OHFWULFLW\WUDGH
-(/FODVVLILFDWLRQ()4+
$FNQRZOHGJHPHQW7KHSURMHFWZDVLQLWLDWHGDQGVSRQVRUHGE\WKH0LQLVWU\RI2LODQG(QHUJ\:H
DFNQRZOHGJHDOVRILQDQFLDOVXSSRUWIURP7KH1RUZHJLDQ5HVHDUFK&RXQFLOXQGHUWKHSURJUDP
6DPUDP+RZHYHUWKHFRQWHQWRIDQGYLHZVH[SUHVVHGLQWKLVSDSHUDUHVROHO\WKHUHVSRQVLELOLW\RI
WKHDXWKRUV
$GGUHVV)LQQ5RDU$XQH6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\5HVHDUFK'HSDUWPHQW(PDLOILQQURDUDXQH#VVEQR
7RUVWHLQ%\H6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\5HVHDUFK'HSDUWPHQW(PDLOWRUVWHLQE\H#VVEQR
7RU$UQW-RKQVHQ6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\5HVHDUFK'HSDUWPHQW
(PDLOWRUDUQWMRKQVHQ#VVEQR

'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHUV

FRPSULVHUHVHDUFKSDSHUVLQWHQGHGIRULQWHUQDWLRQDOMRXUQDOVRUERRNV$VDSUHSULQWD
'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHUFDQEHORQJHUDQGPRUHHODERUDWHWKDQDVWDQGDUGMRXUQDODUWLFOHE\LQ
FOXGLQJLQWHUPHGLDWHFDOFXODWLRQDQGEDFNJURXQGPDWHULDOHWF

$EVWUDFWVZLWKGRZQORDGDEOH3')ILOHVRI
'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHUVDUHDYDLODEOHRQWKH,QWHUQHWKWWSZZZVVEQR
)RUSULQWHG'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHUVFRQWDFW
6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\
6DOHVDQGVXEVFULSWLRQVHUYLFH
1.RQJVYLQJHU
7HOHSKRQH 
7HOHID[

(PDLO
6DOJDERQQHPHQW#VVEQR

,QWURGXFWLRQ
)RUGHFDGHV1RUZHJLDQSROLWLFLDQVKDYHGHEDWHGGRPHVWLFXWLOL]DWLRQRIQDWXUDOJDVIRUHOHFWULFLW\
JHQHUDWLRQ6WLOOWKHUHLVQRJHQHUDWLRQRIHOHFWULFLW\IURPQDWXUDOJDVDWPDLQODQG1RUZD\/DUJHJDV
YROXPHVDUHH[SRUWHGWRFHQWUDO(XURSH,QWKHH[SRUWYDOXHZDVDERXWELOOLRQV867KH
GLVFXVVLRQRIJDVSRZHUH[SDQVLRQUHDFKHGDFOLPD[LQ0DUFKZKHQ3ULPH0LQLVWHU%RQGHYLN
GHQLHGLVVXLQJJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWRUVFRQFHVVLRQDQGHPLVVLRQSHUPLVVLRQ0U%RQGHYLNOHIWRIILFH
ZKHQGHSUHVVHGE\WKHSDUOLDPHQW
VPDMRULW\%RQGHYLNDQGKLVJRYHUQPHQWDUJXHGWKDW1RUZHJLDQ
JDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQZRXOGLQFUHDVHWRWDOHPLVVLRQVRIFOLPDWHJDVHVLQQRUWKHUQ(XURSHDVDZKROH
7KHPDMRULW\LQWKHSDUOLDPHQWYRWHGLQIDYRURIFRQFHVVLRQ$VDFRQVHTXHQFHWKH/DERUSDUW\
V0U
6WROWHQEHUJEHFDPHQHZ3ULPH0LQLVWHU0U6WROWHQEHUJ
VDUJXPHQWLVWKDWGRPHVWLFJDVSRZHUZLOO
UHSODFHLPSRUWVRIHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWHGLQROGRLODQGFRDOSODQWVZLWKORZHQHUJ\HIILFLHQF\7KHUHE\
JDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\ZLOOORZHUFOLPDWHJDVHPLVVLRQVDQGUHVXOWLQDFOHDQHUHQYLURQPHQW
7KHSROLWLFDOGLVFXVVLRQWKHQKDVIRFXVHGRQZKHWKHU1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUSODQWVZLOOVXEVWLWXWH
IRUHLJQFRDOEDVHGSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQDQGWKHUHE\UHGXFHHPLVVLRQVRIFOLPDWHJDVHVRUQRW7KH
SURILWDELOLW\RIJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLWVHOIKDVQRWEHHQWKDWKHDYLO\GLVFXVVHGDVSROLWLFLDQVVHHPLQJO\
LQWHQGWROHDYHWKLVTXHVWLRQWRWKHSRWHQWLDOLQYHVWRUV
6LPLODUO\ZHIRFXVRQWKHJHQHUDWLRQPL[DQGHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQVHTXHQFHVDQGQRWHFRQRPLF
SURILWDELOLW\RIQHZJDVSRZHU+RZHYHUZHVLPXODWHHTXLOLEULXPSULFHVZKLFKLPSOLFLWO\UHIOHFW
SURILWDELOLW\RUQRW,QILJXUHZHVNHWFKWKHSULQFLSDOLPSDFWVLQWKH1RUZHJLDQSRZHUPDUNHWIURP
LQWURGXFWLRQRIDQHZJDVSRZHUSODQW

)LJXUH,PSDFWVRQWKHGRPHVWLFSRZHUPDUNHWIURPLQFUHDVHGJDVSRZHUVXSSO\
3ULFH'5 '


6
6

3:

6



''5
4XDQWLW\
([SRUWFDSDFLW\

7KHILJXUHLVDFRPPRQSULFHDQGTXDQWLW\GLDJUDPZLWKDGHPDQGFXUYHIRUHOHFWULFLW\ '' 
1RUZD\LVDQRSHQHOHFWULFLW\PDUNHWZLWKVRPHJULGFDSDFLW\WRQHLJKERULQJDUHDV7KHSULFHLQWKLV
LQWHUQDWLRQDOPDUNHWLV3:'RPHVWLFSULFHVDERYH3:OHDGWRIXOOLPSRUWGHILQHGE\WKHJULGFDSDFLW\
DQGGRPHVWLFSULFHVEHORZ3:OHDGWRIXOOH[SRUW6XEWUDFWLQJPD[LPXPLPSRUWIURPWKHGHPDQG
FXUYHIRUSULFHVDERYH3:DQGDGGLQJPD[LPXPH[SRUWWRWKHGHPDQGFXUYHDWSULFHOHYHOVEHORZ3:
OHDYHVXVZLWKDUHVLGXDOGHPDQGFXUYHGLUHFWHGWRZDUGVGRPHVWLFVXSSOLHUV7KLVUHVLGXDOGHPDQG
FXUYHLVWKH'5'5FXUYH:HLOOXVWUDWHWKUHHGLIIHUHQWVXSSO\FXUYHV66(DFKKDVDVROLGOLQH
LQGLFDWLQJWKHVXSSO\DWWKHRXWVHWZKLOHWKHGRWWHGOLQHVLOOXVWUDWHWKHVXSSO\DIWHUWKHDGGLWLRQDO
VXSSO\FDSDFLW\IRULQVWDQFHJDVSRZHU
,QWKHFDVHVZLWKWKHVXSSO\FXUYHV6DQG6LQFUHDVHGVXSSO\OHDGVWRORZHUSULFHVLQFUHDVHG
GHPDQGDQGVRPHVXEVWLWXWLRQDWWKHVXSSO\VLGH,IWKHVXSSO\FXUYHLVYHUWLFDODVPD\EHWKHFDVHLQ
WKH1RUZHJLDQK\GURSRZHUPDUNHWWKHUHZLOOEHQRVXSSO\VXEVWLWXWLRQDQGWKHDGGLWLRQDOVXSSO\ZLOO
EHDEVRUEHGE\LQFUHDVHGGHPDQG,WLVHDV\WRVHHWKDWLQFUHDVHGVXSSO\LQ1RUZD\LQFDVH6RU6
GRHVQRWDIIHFWWKHLPSRUWHGRUH[SRUWHGSRZHUYROXPHV7KHUHIRUHLQWKHVHWZRFDVHVWKHUHZLOOEHQR
HIIHFWVDEURDGIURPQHZJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\,QWKHPLGGOHFDVHZLWKDVXSSO\FXUYHHTXDOWR6WKH
GRPHVWLFSULFHLVIL[HGDQGHTXDOWRWKHSULFHLQQHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHV7KHUHIRUHGRPHVWLFGHPDQGLV
QRWDIIHFWHGZKHQVXSSO\LVLQFUHDVHG$OODGGLWLRQDOVXSSO\LVH[SRUWHGRUUHSODFH UHGXFH LPSRUWV
&RQVHTXHQWO\LQFUHDVHGGRPHVWLFVXSSO\KDVLPSDFWVRQQHLJKERULQJSRZHUPDUNHWV7KHVHLPSDFWV
GHSHQGRQWKHPDUNHWVLWXDWLRQLQ1RUZD\
VQHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHV,QILJXUHZHVNHWFKVRPH
SRVVLEOHRXWFRPHV


)LJXUH3ULFHDQGTXDQWLW\LPSDFWVLQ1RUZD\
VQHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHV
3ULFH

( 6 6


(


3



3



3
3
3







[

[



[ [ [






4XDQWLW\



%HIRUHWKHQHZ1RUZHJLDQJDVSODQWLVHVWDEOLVKHGWKHVROLGOLQH6 LQGLFDWHVWKHVXSSO\FXUYHLQ


QHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHV7KHVXSSO\FXUYHLVKRUL]RQWDODWORZ FRQVWDQWPDUJLQDOFRVW SURGXFWLRQ


OHYHOVXSZDUGVORSLQJDWLQWHUPHGLDWHSURGXFWLRQOHYHOVDQGYHUWLFDOZKHQWKHFDSDFLW\LVIXOO\
XWLOL]HG7KHVXSSO\FXUYHLQFOXGHVVRPHLPSRUWVIURP1RUZD\ RULWLVQHWRIH[SRUWWR1RUZD\ :H
LOOXVWUDWHWKHLPSDFWVIURPUHGXFHGH[SRUWVRULQFUHDVHGLPSRUWVIRUWKUHHGLIIHUHQWGHPDQGOHYHOVE\
XVLQJWKUHHDOWHUQDWLYHGRZQZDUGVORSLQJGHPDQGFXUYHV( WR( %HIRUHJDVSRZHULVLQWURGXFHGLQ


1RUZD\WKHHTXLOLEULXPSURGXFWLRQTXDQWLW\DQGSULFHSDLUVDUH [ S  [ S DQG [ S :H












LQWURGXFHLQFUHDVHGLPSRUWVIURP1RUZD\WRQHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHV RUUHGXFHGH[SRUWVIURP
QHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHVWR1RUZD\ E\DGGLQJWKHYROXPH [ WRWKHROGVXSSO\FXUYH7KHVXSSO\
1

FXUYHVKLIWVWRZDUGVULJKWDQGWKHQHZVXSSO\FXUYH6 LVJLYHQE\WKHGRWWHGOLQH


7KHSULFHDQGTXDQWLW\LPSDFWVGHSHQGRQWKHORFDWLRQRIWKHGHPDQGFXUYH,IGHPDQGLVORZ ( 


SULFHGRHVQRWFKDQJHDQGWRWDOFRQVXPSWLRQDQGJHQHUDWLRQDUHQRWDIIHFWHG7KHQHZJDVSRZHU
FRPSOHWHO\VXEVWLWXWHVROGJHQHUDWLRQ:KHQGHPDQG ( FURVVHVWKHXSZDUGVORSLQJVXSSO\FXUYH


LQFUHDVHGVXSSO\OHDGVWRDSULFHUHGXFWLRQDQGLQFUHDVHGHOHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQ+RZHYHU
FRQVXPSWLRQLQFUHDVHVOHVVWKDQWKHLPSRUWHGSRZHUYROXPH&RQVHTXHQWO\LQFUHDVHGLPSRUWVSDUWO\
VXEVWLWXWHH[LVWLQJJHQHUDWLRQDQGSDUWO\DUHFRQVXPHG:KHQGHPDQGLVKLJK ( LPSRUWHGTXDQWLW\


LVFRPSOHWHO\DEVRUEHGE\LQFUHDVHGFRQVXPSWLRQ,QWKLVFDVHWKHQHZJDVSRZHUGRHVQRWVXEVWLWXWH
DQ\ROGJHQHUDWLRQ
)LJXUHDQGVKRZWKDWWKHHIIHFWVXSRQSRZHUSURGXFWLRQGHPDQGDQGHPLVVLRQVRILQWURGXFLQJJDV
SRZHUSODQWVLQ1RUZD\GHSHQGKHDYLO\XSRQWKHLQLWLDOVXSSO\DQGGHPDQGFRQGLWLRQV'HUHJXODWLRQ


RIWKH1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\PDUNHWKDVUHYHDOHGH[FHVVSRZHUSURGXFWLRQFDSDFLW\,QPDQ\SHULRGVRI
WLPHWKHPDUJLQDOWHFKQRORJ\LVWKHUPDOSRZHUEDVHGRQFRDO([FHVVFDSDFLW\PHDQVWKDWWKHDFWXDO
GHPDQGFURVVHVWKHVXSSO\FXUYHDWWKHKRUL]RQWDORUQHDUKRUL]RQWDOSDUWRIWKHVXSSO\FXUYH
+RZHYHURYHUWLPHWKHH[FHVVFDSDFLW\GLPLQLVKHVDFFRUGLQJWRGHSUHFLDWLRQDQGGHPDQGJURZWK
:KHQWKHH[FHVVFDSDFLW\LVUHGXFHGWKHPDUNHWPD\PRUHRIWHQEHFKDUDFWHUL]HGE\WKHVLWXDWLRQV
LOOXVWUDWHGE\WKHGHPDQGFXUYHV(DQG(LQILJXUH,QWKHORQJUXQPDUNHWSULFHVUHDFKORQJWHUP
PDUJLQDOFRVWVRIQHZFDSDFLW\DQGWKHVXSSO\FXUYHLVKRUL]RQWDORUXSZDUGVORSLQJ7KHQZHDUH
EDFNLQDVLWXDWLRQZKHUHQHZJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\VXEVWLWXWHPDUJLQDOFDSDFLW\H[SDQVLRQVLQ
QHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHV
,QRUGHUWRUHFHLYHSURSHUDQVZHUVWRWKHTXHVWLRQUDLVHGDERYHZHUHO\RQVLPXODWLRQVRIDQHPSLULFDO
PRGHOIRUWKHDFWXDOPDUNHW:HDQDO\]HWKHHFRQRPLFDQGHQYLURQPHQWDOFRQVHTXHQFHVRI
LQWURGXFWLRQRIJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQ1RUZD\:HDSSO\6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\
VHTXLOLEULXPHOHFWULFLW\
PDUNHWPRGHOIRUWKH1RUGLFDUHD1RUPRG77KHPRGHOGHVFULEHVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQFRQVXPSWLRQ
DQGWUDGHLQWKH1RUGLFDUHDDQGEHWZHHQWKHIRXU1RUGLFFRXQWULHV1RUZD\6ZHGHQ'HQPDUNDQG
)LQODQGDQG*HUPDQ\
7KHSDSHULVRUJDQL]HGDVIROORZV,QWKHUHVWRIWKHSUHVHQWVHFWLRQZHJLYHDVKRUWEDFNJURXQGRQWKH
1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\PDUNHWDQGLWVRUJDQL]DWLRQDQGVWUXFWXUH,QVHFWLRQZHGLVFXVVWKHPRGHOZKLOH
SDUDPHWHUVDQGH[RJHQRXVYDULDEOHVDUHVKRZQLQVHFWLRQ6HFWLRQLQFOXGHVFDOFXODWLRQVUHVXOWV
DQGVHQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLVZKLOHWKHILQDOVHFWLRQFRQWDLQVPDLQFRQFOXVLRQV

%DFNJURXQG
7KUHH1RUGLFFRXQWULHV)LQODQG1RUZD\DQG6ZHGHQKDYHGHUHJXODWHGWKHLUHOHFWULFLW\PDUNHWVVHH
IRULQVWDQFH%HUJPDQHWDO  ,QWKHIRXUWKFRXQWU\'HQPDUNRQO\HQGXVHUVRUGLVWULEXWLRQ
FRPSDQLHVZLWKDQDQQXDOGHPDQGRI*:KRUPRUHDUHWRGD\IUHHWRSXUFKDVHHOHFWULFLW\IURP
RWKHUVWKDQWKHLUORFDOXWLOLW\'HQPDUNLVH[SHFWHGWROLEHUDOL]HIXUWKHULQDIHZ\HDUV+RZHYHU
'DQLVKHOHFWULFLW\SURGXFHUVDUHDOUHDG\WUDGLQJLQWHQVLYHO\DWWKH1RUGLFSRZHUH[FKDQJH 1RUG3RRO 
7KLUGSDUW\DFFHVVWRWKHQHWZRUNVDQGFRPSHWLWLRQDPRQJJHQHUDWRUVDQGVXSSOLHUVDUHWKHPDLQ
HOHPHQWVRIWKHUHIRUPVLQDOOFRXQWULHV(QGXVHUVWUDGHUVEURNHUVGLVWULEXWRUVDQGJHQHUDWRUV
SDUWLFLSDWHLQWKHHOHFWULFLW\WUDGHDW1RUG3RRORQDYROXQWDU\EDVLV7KHVSRWSULFHVRIHOHFWULFLW\
H[SUHVVWKHPDUJLQDOYDOXHRISRZHUDQGDUHLPSRUWDQWIRUSULFHVHWWLQJRXWVLGHWKHH[FKDQJHDQGIRU

HQGXVHUSULFHPRYHPHQWV1HWZRUNDFWLYLWLHVDUHVHSDUDWHGIURPJHQHUDWLRQDQGVDOHVDFWLYLWLHVDQG
UHJXODWHGE\QDWLRQDOUHJXODWRU\ERGLHV
7KHWRWDOSURGXFWLRQRIHOHFWULFLW\LQWKH1RUGLFDUHDLQZDV7:KK\GURSRZHUEHLQJVRPH
SHUFHQWQXFOHDUSRZHUSHUFHQWDQGWKHUPDOSRZHUSHUFHQW)LJXUHLOOXVWUDWHVWKHPDLQ
SK\VLFDOIHDWXUHVRIWKH1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHP
)LJXUH7KH1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\V\VWHP7UDQVPLVVLRQDQGJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLWLHV
50 MW

100 MW

40 MW

900 MW

700 MW
GW

200 MW

30

Finland

GW
25

GW

20
20

12
16,2
15

15
10

10

8,3

5
0

0,
2

500 MW
Norway

1600 MW

1200 MW
(future)

GW

1050 MW
Denmark

1100 MW

6
4
2,8
2

500 MW

2,3

Sweden

690 MW
670 MW
1000 MW

16
14
12
10

9,6

10

10

9,6

8
6
4
2
0

1400 MW

600
MW

600 MW

Germany/Holland

Hydro

Nuclear

Fossil

7KHFRPSRVLWLRQRIWKHQDWLRQDOHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQV\VWHPVLVLPSRUWDQWIRUWKHDWWUDFWLYHQHVVRI
SRZHUWUDGHDPRQJWKHFRXQWULHV)LQODQGDQG6ZHGHQKDYHGLYHUVLILHGSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQV\VWHPV
ZKLOHWKH1RUZHJLDQDQG'DQLVKSRZHUV\VWHPVDUHOHVVGLYHUVLILHGDOWKRXJKTXLWHGLIIHUHQW,Q
1RUZD\HOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQLVSXUHO\EDVHGRQK\GURSRZHU,Q6ZHGHQHOHFWULFLW\LVSURGXFHGIURP
K\GURQXFOHDUDQGDVLQGXVWULDOFRJHQHUDWLRQRULQFRPELQDWLRQZLWKVPDOOVFDOHKHDWSURGXFWLRQ
)LQODQGKDVK\GURQXFOHDUDQGFRDOEDVHGSRZHUDQGGHFHQWUDOFRPELQHGKHDWDQGSRZHU

JHQHUDWLRQEDVHGRQIRVVLOIXHOVRUELRIXHOV,Q'HQPDUNFRQGHQVLQJDQGFRPELQHGKHDWDQGSRZHU
EDVHGRQFRDODUHWKHGRPLQDQWWHFKQRORJ\ZKLOHSODQQHGH[SDQVLRQVZLOOEHEDVHGRQQDWXUDOJDV
ELRIXHOVDQGZLQG
%HFDXVHGLIIHUHQWJHQHUDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVKDYHGLIIHUHQWPDUJLQDOSURGXFWLRQFRVWVWKHUHLVDODUJH
SRWHQWLDOIRUHOHFWULFLW\WUDGHEHWZHHQWKH1RUGLFFRXQWULHV(QHUJ\3ROLF\PHDVXUHVLQWURGXFHGLQRQH
FRXQWU\PD\WKHUHIRUHKDYHKXJHLPSDFWVRQWKH1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\WUDGHDQG1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\SULFHV
7KHUHH[LVWDVWURQJLQWHUGHSHQGHQFHEHWZHHQWKHQDWLRQDOPDUNHWVDQGLQFLGHQWVLQRQHFRXQWU\DIIHFW
VXUURXQGLQJPDUNHWVDVZHOO$QLOOXVWUDWLRQRIWKHVHLQWHUGHSHQGHQFLHVLVJLYHQLQILJXUH1RUZHJLDQ
DQG6ZHGLVKK\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQYDU\KHDYLO\DVSUHFLSLWDWLRQDQGVQRZPHOWLQJYDU\7KH
K\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQPD\YDU\ZLWKDVPXFKDVSHUFHQWIURPRQH\HDUWRDQRWKHU)LJXUH
VKRZV\HDUO\SRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQWKHIRXU1RUGLFFRXQWULHVLQWKHSHULRG
)LJXUH$QQXDOSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQWKH1RUGLFFRXQWULHV*:K

























'DQPDUN

)LQODQG

1RUJH

6YHULJH

7KHUHLVDVWURQJQHJDWLYHFRUUHODWLRQEHWZHHQ1RUZHJLDQ K\GUR DQG'DQLVK WKHUPDOFRDO


JHQHUDWLRQ7KHUHLVDFOHDUVLPLODUSDWWHUQEHWZHHQ6ZHGHQDQG'HQPDUNDQGEHWZHHQ6ZHGHQDQG
)LQODQG7KLVFHUWDLQO\XQGHUOLQHVWKHVLPXOWDQHRXVGHWHUPLQDWLRQRI1RUGLFSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQ3RZHU



%LRIXHOVDUHZRRGSHDWVWUDZDQGZDVWH

LVSURGXFHGIURPWKHFKHDSHVWVRXUFHDYDLODEOHDQGJHQHUDWLRQVKRUWIDOOVLQRQHFRXQWU\DUHUHSODFHG
E\SURGXFWLRQLQWKHRWKHUFRXQWULHV
7KHYDULDWLRQLQDQQXDOJHQHUDWLRQDQGHOHFWULFLW\WUDGHDIIHFWVWKHOHYHOVRISROOXWLQJHPLVVLRQVDV
ZHOO$OOWKHFRXQWULHVZLWKVRPHWKHUPDOSRZHUFDSDFLW\ 'HQPDUN)LQODQGDQG6ZHGHQ HPLWPRUH
&2LQWKH\HDUVZLWKORZK\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQWKDQLQ\HDUVZLWKQRUPDORUDERYHQRUPDO
K\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQ7KHYDULDWLRQLQJHQHUDWLRQDQGHPLVVLRQVVKRZVKRZLQWHUUHODWHGWKHQDWLRQDO
SRZHUPDUNHWVLQWKH1RUGLFDUHDDUHDQGKRZLPSRUWDQWSURSHUGHVLJQRIWKHHQHUJ\SROLF\LV1HZ
1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQZLOOPRUHRUOHVVKDYHWKHVDPHLPSDFWVDVVXUSOXVK\GURSRZHU
JHQHUDWLRQ+RZHYHUWKHUHDUHGLIIHUHQFHVDVWKHDGGLWLRQDOK\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQDZHW\HDU
RIWHQKDVWREHSURGXFHGGXULQJWKHVXPPHUDQGDXWXPQZKLOHJDVSRZHUZLOOSURGXFHWKHHQWLUH\HDU
H[FHSWIRUDPDLQWHQDQFHSHULRGZKHQSULFHVDUHORZ VXPPHU :KLOHK\GURSRZHUKDVDQRSHUDWLQJ
FRVWFORVHWR]HURJDVSRZHUKDVPXFKKLJKHUYDULDEOHFRVWV,QDGGLWLRQDJDVSRZHUSODQWLVOHVV
IOH[LEOHWKDQDK\GURSRZHUSODQWZLWKUHVSHFWWRVWDUWDQGVWRSRIJHQHUDWLRQ&RQVHTXHQWO\ZHFDQQRW
XVHILJXUHWRGUDZVWURQJFRQFOXVLRQVDERXWWKHLPSDFWVIURP1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHURQ1RUGLF
HOHFWULFLW\EDODQFHDQGJHQHUDWLRQPL[:HVWURQJO\QHHGDPRGHORIWKHHOHFWULFLW\PDUNHWDQG
JHQHUDWLRQV\VWHPWRFDOFXODWHOLNHO\LPSDFWVIURPQHZJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQ1RUZD\

0RGHO
,QRUGHUWRVLPXODWHWKHFRQVHTXHQFHVRI1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUSURGXFWLRQIRU1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\
SULFHVFRQVXPSWLRQJHQHUDWLRQDQGFOLPDWHJDVHPLVVLRQVZHXVH6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\
VHTXLOLEULXP
PRGHOIRUWKH1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\PDUNHW1RUPRG77KHPRGHODVVXPHVSHUIHFWFRPSHWLWLRQDQGKDV
GLIIHUHQWWLPHVHJPHQWVGXULQJWKH\HDUDQGLQFOXGHVGHPDQGJURXSVLQHDFKRIWKHFRXQWULHV
1RUZD\6ZHGHQ'HQPDUNDQG)LQODQG)RUHDFKFRXQWU\ZHVSHFLI\DODUJHQXPEHURIH[LVWLQJDQG
QHZJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLWLHVZLWKDFFRPSDQ\LQJFDSDFLWLHVIXHOSULFHVIXHOFRQYHUVLRQUDWHVKHDWSULFHV
RWKHUYDULDEOHDQGH[SDQVLRQFRVWV,QDGGLWLRQWRHOHFWULFLW\WUDGHDPRQJWKHVHFRXQWULHVZHPRGHO
WKHVHFRXQWULHV
HOHFWULFLW\WUDGHZLWKFRXQWULHVRXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFUHJLRQ
)LJXUHVKRZVWKHPDLQEORFNVRIWKHPRGHO




6HH-RKQVHQ  IRUDGRFXPHQWDWLRQRIWKHPRGHODQGGDWD


5XVVLD3RODQG*HUPDQ\DQG7KH1HWKHUODQGV

)LJXUH0RGHORYHUYLHZ1RUPRG7
$QQXDOSRZHU
GHPDQGE\VHFWRU

%DVH\HDUORDGGXUD
WLRQFXUYHE\VHFWRU
:LWKLQ\HDUGHPDQG
HODVWLFLWLHV

0DUNHWHTXOLEULXP

)XHOSULFHV
+HDWSULFHV
5HVRXUFHOLPLWV

3ULFHVJHQHUDWLRQ
GHPDQGDQGWUDGH

3K\VLFDODQGWHFK
QLFDOFRQVWUDLQWVLQ
WKHSRZHUV\VWHP
(OHFWULFLW\SULFHV
RXWVLGHWKHQRUGLFDUHD

&DSDFLW\H[SDQVLRQ
JHQHUDWLRQ
LQWHUQDWLRQDOJULG

&DSDFLW\DYDLODELOLW\
DQGGHSUHFLDWLRQ

7KHPDLQGULYLQJIRUFHVDUHHFRQRPLFJURZWKGHSUHFLDWLRQRIROGJHQHUDWLRQIDFLOLWLHVIXHODQGKHDW
SULFHVFRVWVRIQHZWHFKQRORJLHVDQGWKHGHYHORSPHQWRIHOHFWULFLW\SULFHVRXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHD
7KHPRGHOFDOFXODWHVHTXLOLEULXPHOHFWULFLW\SULFHVHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQE\WHFKQRORJ\DQGIXHODQG
HOHFWULFLW\WUDGHIRUDOOFRXQWULHVDQGSHULRGV$ODUJHQXPEHURISK\VLFDOFRQVWUDLQWVVXFKDV
JHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLWLHVPDLQWHQDQFHOHYHOVVHFXULW\PDUJLQVZDWHUIORZOLPLWVDQGWUDQVPLVVLRQ
FDSDFLWLHVDQGXWLOL]DWLRQWLPHVOLPLWWKHPRGHOVROXWLRQ(DFKELQGLQJFRQVWUDLQWUHIOHFWVDVKDGRZ
SULFHLQWHUPVRIDPDUJLQDOYDOXHRIDOHVVVWULFWFRQVWUDLQWRUWKHPDUJLQDOFRVWRIDPRUHWLJKW
FRQVWUDLQW)RULQVWDQFHZKHQWKHUHLVQRWUDQVPLVVLRQFRQJHVWLRQDPRQJWKHFRXQWULHVWKH
HTXLOLEULXPHOHFWULFLW\SULFHVZLOORQO\GLIIHUZLWKYDULDEOHWUDQVPLVVLRQFRVWV,IDSDWKJHWVFRQJHVWHG
WKHUHZLOOH[LVWDVKDGRZSULFHRIWKDWSDWK
VFDSDFLW\DQGQDWLRQDOSULFHVGLIIHU
(OHFWULFLW\GHPDQGORDGEORFNV
(OHFWULFLW\GHPDQGYDULHVKHDYLO\E\WLPHRIGD\ZHHNDQG\HDU7KLVYDULDWLRQLPSOLHVODUJHYDULDWLRQ
LQWKHJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQDQGFRVWV$VVKRZQLQILJXUHDERYHLPSDFWVIURPQHZJDV
SRZHUGHSHQGKHDYLO\RQWKHGHPDQGDQGWKHFDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQUDWH7KHUHIRUHRXUPRGHOKDVIRXU
GHPDQGSHULRGVRUORDGEORFNVGXULQJHDFKVHDVRQ)LJXUHLOOXVWUDWHVKRXUO\GHPDQGLQDSRZHU
V\VWHPGXULQJRQHRIWKHWKUHHVHDVRQVZKHUHWKHKRXUVDUHUDQNHGIURPOHIWWRULJKWDFFRUGLQJWRWKH
ORDGGHPDQG ORDGGXUDWLRQFXUYH 



)LJXUH,OOXVWUDWLRQRIDORDGGXUDWLRQFXUYHDQGIRXUGHPDQG ORDG EORFNV


0:

3%

+%

0%

%%


+RXUV

)RUHDFKFRXQWU\LWLVDVVXPHGDIRXUVWHSGHFUHDVLQJFXUYHLOOXVWUDWHGE\WKHGRWWHGFROXPQVLQ
ILJXUH:HGHQRWHHDFKFROXPQDEORFNDQGWKHIRXUEORFNVDUHEDVH %% PHGLXP 0% KLJK
+% DQGSHDNEORFN 3% 7KHILUVWWKUHHEORFNVDUHDVVXPHGWRKDYHHTXDOOHQJWKZKLOHWKHSHDN
EORFNLVRIVKRUWHUGXUDWLRQ
$ODUJHPDFURHFRQRPLFDSSOLHGJHQHUDOHTXLOLEULXPPRGHOIRUWKH1RUZHJLDQHFRQRP\06*VHH
+ROP\HWDO  LVXVHGWRFDOFXODWHDQQXDOHOHFWULFLW\GHPDQGJURZWKIRU1RUZD\ZKLOHGHPDQG
JURZWKIRU6ZHGHQ'HQPDUNDQG)LQODQGLVH[RJHQRXV)RUHDFKGHPDQGJURXSWKH\HDUO\
HOHFWULFLW\GHPDQGLVGLVWULEXWHGRQVHDVRQVDQGORDGEORFNV DFFRUGLQJWREDVH\HDUFRHIILFLHQWVDQG
WKHGHYHORSPHQWRIWKHHQGXVHUSRZHUSULFHIRUHDFKEORFN
(OHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQDQGFRVWVORDGPRGHV
:HVSHFLI\DERXWH[LVWLQJDQGQHZSRZHUJHQHUDWLQJWHFKQRORJLHVLQWKHPRGHOE\FDSDFLW\
YDULDEOHDQGIL[HGFRVWVIXHOW\SHDQGSULFHDQGIXHOFRQYHUVLRQHIILFLHQF\7KHXWLOL]DWLRQWLPHRI



7KHOHQJWKRIWKHEORFNVLV KRXUV 
6HDVRQ
:
68
:

%DVHEORFN

0HGLXPEORFN

+LJKEORFN

3HDNEORFN

















7KURXJKDQLWHUDWLYHSURFHGXUHZHUXQ06*DQG1RUPRG7LQRUGHUWRILQGDFRQVLVWHQWSDWKIRU\HDUO\HOHFWULFLW\SULFHV
DQGDJJUHJDWHHOHFWULFLW\GHPDQGLQ1RUZD\)RUWKHRWKHU1RUGLFFRXQWULHVZHDVVXPHWKHVDPHPDFURSULFHHODVWLFLW\ZLWK
UHVSHFWWRWKHDQQXDODYHUDJHRIWKHHOHFWULFLW\SULFHDVIRXQGWKURXJKWKHLWHUDWLYHSURFHVVZLWK06*



WHFKQRORJLHVLVFUXFLDOLQGHWHUPLQLQJWKHLUPDUJLQDOFRVWDQGORQJWHUPSURILWDELOLW\7KHORQJHUWKH
XWLOL]DWLRQWLPHLVWKHORZHULVWKHFDSLWDOFRVWSHUSURGXFHGXQLW,QDGGLWLRQWKHUHDUHODUJH
GLIIHUHQFHVDFURVVWHFKQRORJLHVZLWKUHJDUGWRWKHLUDELOLW\WRYDU\RXWSXW2QHH[WUHPHLVQXFOHDU
SRZHUSODQWVLQZKLFKWKHRXWSXWFDQRQO\EHUHJXODWHGZLWKLQDQDUURZLQWHUYDO2QWKHRWKHUKDQG
K\GURSRZHUSODQWVDUHFKHDSWRUHJXODWH1HZJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\ZLOOVXSSOHPHQWWKHK\GURSRZHU
JHQHUDWLRQDQGKDYHLPSDFWVRQWKHHOHFWULFLW\WUDGHSDWWHUQEHWZHHQ1RUZD\DQGRWKHUFRXQWULHV,I
WKHK\GURSRZHUIOH[LELOLW\LVODUJHHQRXJKWRDOORZWKHQHZJDVSRZHUWRUXQDVEDVHORDGJHQHUDWLRQ
WKHPDUJLQDOFRVWRIJDVSRZHUZLOOEHDWLWVORZHVWOHYHO7KHUHIRUHLWLVLPSRUWDQWWRUHFRJQL]HWKH
JHQHUDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHV
XWLOL]DWLRQWLPHDQGZKHWKHUWKHSODQWVRSHUDWHLQEDVHORDGRUDUHVWRSSHGDQG
VWDUWHGRYHUWKHFRXUVHRIDGD\RUZHHN,QWKHPRGHOWKHXWLOL]DWLRQWLPHLVHQGRJHQRXV
2QWKHPDUJLQQHZJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\ZLOOFRPSHWHZLWKIRUHLJQJHQHUDWLRQRQO\LIWKHUHLVVSDUH
WUDQVPLVVLRQFDSDFLW\EHWZHHQ1RUZD\DQGWKHRWKHUFRXQWULHV7RFDSWXUHXWLOL]DWLRQWLPHVDQGWKH
YDULDWLRQLQIOH[LELOLW\DPRQJWHFKQRORJLHVZHVSHFLI\IRXUORDGPRGHVVHHILJXUH
)LJXUH/RDGGXUDWLRQFXUYHDQGIRXUORDGPRGHV
0:
3/

+/
0/

%/


+RXUV

7KHORDGGXUDWLRQFXUYHLVWKHVDPHDVLQILJXUH+RZHYHUZKHQORRNLQJDWJHQHUDWLRQGHFLVLRQVZH
VSHFLI\PRGHVHTXDOWRWKHIRXUKRUL]RQWDOUHFWDQJOHVLQILJXUH)RUDWKHUPDOSRZHUJHQHUDWRUVWDUW
DQGVWRSFRQVLGHUDWLRQVDQGF\FOLQJ ORZHUWKDQIXOOFDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQLQUXQQLQJSODQWV DUH
LPSRUWDQWTXHVWLRQV,IIRULQVWDQFHEDVHEORFNSULFHVDUHORZVRPHJHQHUDWRUVPD\ZDQWWRVWRS
GXULQJEDVHEORFNDQGWKHUHE\SURGXFHRQO\LQWKHPHGLXPORDGPRGH$QDOWHUQDWLYHLVWRUXQDORZ
FDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQGXULQJWKHEDVHEORFNDQGWKHUHE\DYRLGDFRPSOHWHVWRSRIWKHSODQW,QRXUPRGHO



WKHVHWZRIHDWXUHVDUHKDQGOHGLQDVLPSOLILHGZD\)RUHDFKVHDVRQVDQGORDGPRGHKHDFKJHQHUDWLRQ
WHFKQRORJ\ N LQFRXQWU\OKDVDQRSHUDWLQJFRVW 2& JLYHQE\
2&VKNO =

TNO - SKVKO m NO - mNO


mNO

+ aN + aKN 

ZKHUHTLVWKHIXHOLQSXWSULFHPHDVXUHGLQ1NUN:KSKLVWKHH[RJHQRXVSULFHRIKHDWHGZDWHULQ
1NUN:KZKLOH m LVWKHWRWDOIXHOFRQYHUVLRQHIILFLHQF\ HOHFWULFLW\DQGKHDW DQGmLVWKHIXHO
FRQYHUVLRQHIILFLHQF\LQHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQ)RUWHFKQRORJLHVSURGXFLQJRQO\HOHFWULFLW\ m LVHTXDO
WRm7KHWZRa
VDUHYDULDEOHFRVWVRWKHUWKDQIXHOFRVWV a DQGVWDUWXSFRVWV a 
7KHaWHUPLQHTXDWLRQ  LVPRGHVSHFLILFDQG LIK EDVHORDG %/ !LIK PHGLXP 0/ 
KLJK +/ RUSHDNORDG 3/ $WHFKQRORJ\QRWXVHGLQEDVHORDGJHQHUDWLRQKDVWREHVWDUWHGGDLO\
DQGWKHHVWLPDWHGVWDUWXSFRVWLVGLYLGHGRQWKHQXPEHURIKRXUVRIRSHUDWLRQLQRUGHUWRUHFHLYHDQ
HVWLPDWHIRUa,QDGGLWLRQZHDOORZIRVVLOIXHOEDVHGSODQWVWRUHGXFHFDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQWR
SHUFHQWGXULQJEDVHEORFN
7KHORDGGXUDWLRQDSSURDFKLPSOLHVJURXSLQJRIKRXUVZLWKLQORDGGHPDQGLQWHUYDOV)RUH[DPSOHWKH
KLJKSHULRGFRQVLVWVRIKRXUVWKDWQRWQHFHVVDULO\IROORZHDFKRWKHULQFKURQRORJLFDOWLPH7KXVWKH
ORDGGXUDWLRQDSSURDFKVXSSUHVVHVWKHFKURQRORJLFDODVSHFWRIWKHYDULDWLRQLQGHPDQGDQGVXSSO\
.DKQHWDO  SRLQWRQWKHVKRUWFRPLQJVRIWKHORDGGXUDWLRQDSSURDFKFRPSDUHGWRD
FKURQRORJLFDODSSURDFK:LWKFKURQRORJLFDOWLPHVWDUWDQGVWRSGHFLVLRQVDQGF\FOLQJPD\EH
GHVFULEHGLQGHWDLO
2SHUDWLQJFRVWVLQK\GURSRZHUSODQWDUHYHU\ORZEXWDQXPEHURISK\VLFDOFRQVWUDLQWVDQG
LQVWLWXWLRQDOFRQVWUDLQWVJLYHQWKURXJKWKHFRQFHVVLRQWRRSHUDWHOLPLWWKHRSHUDWLRQDOIOH[LELOLW\RIWKH
K\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQHTXLSPHQW:HDSSO\DORZHUOLPLWIRUK\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQZKLFKLV
PRWLYDWHGIURPWZRIDFWV)LUVWGXHWRKHDY\VQRZPHOWLQJWKHZDWHULQIORZWRULYHUVWDWLRQVLVKLJK
IRUVRPHSDUWRIWKHVXPPHU$OOWKLVLQIORZFDQQRWEHVWRUHGDQGZLOOEHORVWLIQRWSURGXFHGZKHQ
DUULYLQJWRWKHVWDWLRQV6HFRQGIRUHDFKVHSDUDWHZDWHUFRXUVHWKH1RUZHJLDQ:DWHUDQG5HVRXUFH
$GPLQLVWUDWLRQ 19( GHWHUPLQHVDPLQLPXPIORZRIZDWHU,QHDFKVHDVRQWKHEDVHORDG
K\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQKDVWREHHTXDOWRRUJUHDWHUWKDQDORZHUOLPLW$OWKRXJKK\GURSRZHU
SURGXFWLRQFDQEHUHJXODWHGXSDQGGRZQDWORZFRVWWKHUHPD\DOVREHFRQVWUDLQWVRQWKHYDULDWLRQ
RYHUWKHGD\RUEHWZHHQWKHEDVHDQGSHDNJHQHUDWLRQ,QRXUPRGHOZHDSSO\DQXSSHUOLPLWRQWKH
LQFUHDVHLQK\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQIURPEDVHWRSHDNORDGPRGH)LQDOO\WKHUHLVDQXSSHUOLPLWRQWKH



UHVHUYRLUFDSDFLW\RURQWKHDJJUHJDWHJHQHUDWLRQRIHQHUJ\IURPK\GURSRZHUUHVRXUFHVLQWKHWZR
ZLQWHUSHULRGV
6ROXWLRQRIWKHPRGHO
$QRSWLPDOVROXWLRQRIWKHPRGHOLVIRXQGE\PD[LPL]DWLRQRIWKH\HDUO\VXPRISURGXFHUDQG
FRQVXPHUVXUSOXVRYHUDOOVHDVRQVDQGORDGSHULRGVDQGDOOFRXQWULHVJLYHQFDSDFLWLHVDQGFRQVWUDLQWV
,QWKHVKRUWUXQJHQHUDWLRQDQGWUDQVPLVVLRQFDSDFLWLHVDUHIL[HG:HGHSUHFLDWHROGJHQHUDWLQJ
HTXLSPHQWOLQHDUO\E\H[RJHQRXVUDWHV,QWKHORQJUXQWUDQVPLVVLRQDQGJHQHUDWLRQLQYHVWPHQWVZLOO
WDNHSODFHLISURILWDEOH,QWKHPRGHOQHZJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLW\LVHVWDEOLVKHGLISRZHUSULFHVRQ
DYHUDJHRYHUD\HDUH[FHHGORQJUXQPDUJLQDOFRVWVIRUQHZFDSDFLW\/RQJUXQPDUJLQDOFRVWVLQFOXGH
FDSLWDOFRVWVIXHOFRVWVDQGRWKHUYDULDEOHFRVWV2QO\DYHU\IHZQHZLQYHVWPHQWVZLOOEHDYDLODEOH
EHIRUHEHFDXVHRIORQJSODQQLQJDQGFRQVWUXFWLRQODJVDQGDYHU\OLWWOHLQYHVWPHQWDFWLYLW\DWWKH
PRPHQW:HXSGDWHFDSDFLWLHV\HDUO\E\GHSUHFLDWLRQDQGQHZLQYHVWPHQWV5HODWLYHSULFHVDQG
WUDQVPLVVLRQFDSDFLWLHVGHWHUPLQHWKHSRZHUWUDGHEHWZHHQ1RUGLFDQGRWKHU1RUWK(XURSHDQ
FRXQWULHV

'DWDDQGDVVXPSWLRQV
,QRXUVFHQDULRVWKHHOHFWULFLW\VHFWRUSURFHHGVIURPWRGD\
VVWDUWLQJSRLQWZLWKRXWPDMRUFKDQJHVLQ
WKHHQHUJ\SROLF\'HQPDUN
VGHUHJXODWLRQZLOOEHFRPSOHWHGYHU\VRRQDQGDJUDGXDOGHUHJXODWLRQLV
H[SHFWHGLQ*HUPDQ\DQGRWKHUQHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHV
(OHFWULFLW\GHPDQG
2XUGHPDQGHTXDWLRQVDUHOLQHDULQHFRQRPLFJURZWKDQGSULFHV:HDSSO\EDVH\HDUREVHUYDWLRQVIRU
GHPDQGDQGSULFHVDQGDVHWRIHODVWLFLWLHVWRFDOLEUDWHWKHSULFHGHULYDWLYHVLQWKHGHPDQGHTXDWLRQV
:HGRQRWKDYHWLPHVHULHVIRUVHDVRQDODQGGDLO\GHPDQGYDULDWLRQVVRHFRQRPHWULFHVWLPDWLRQRI
HODVWLFLWLHVKDVQRWEHHQSRVVLEOH7KHUHIRUHRXUHODVWLFLWLHVDUHEDVHGRQHVWLPDWHVSXEOLVKHGE\RWKHU
VRXUFHVLH$PXQGVHQHWDO  DQG1HVEDNNHQ  VHHWDEOH




:HXVHWKHVROYHU0LQRVWRVROYHRXU*$06PRGHOVHH%URRNHHWDO  



7DEOH3ULFHHODVWLFLWLHVXVHGWRFDOLEUDWHWKHGHPDQGHTXDWLRQV
:LQWHU

6XPPHU

%DVH

0HGLXP

+LJK

3HDN

%DVH

0HGLXP

+LJK

3HDN

0HWDO

















3XOS SDSHU

















2WKHULQG

















6HUYLFHV

















+RXVHKROGV

















([FHSWIRUWKHSHDNEORFNWKHVXPPHUHODVWLFLWLHVDUHORZHUWKDQRUHTXDOWRWKHZLQWHUHODVWLFLWLHV,Q
WKHZLQWHUVHDVRQDODUJHIUDFWLRQRIWKHHOHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQLVXVHGIRUVSDFHKHDWLQJ0RUH
VXEVWLWXWHVDUHDYDLODEOHIRUVSDFHKHDWLQJWKDQIRUXVHRIHOHFWULFLW\LQWHFKQLFDODSSOLDQFHVZKLFK
UHSUHVHQWDODUJHUSDUWRIWKHHOHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQLQWKHVXPPHUVHDVRQ
7KHSHDNEORFNHODVWLFLWLHVIRUWKHZLQWHUVHDVRQDUHWUHDWHGLQDVSHFLDOZD\6LQFHRXUGHPDQG
HTXDWLRQVDUHOLQHDUWKHSULFHHODVWLFLWLHVLQFUHDVHZLWKLQFUHDVLQJSULFHV,QRXUVFHQDULRVWKHKLJKHVW
SULFHVRFFXULQWKHSHDNEORFNLQWKHZLQWHUVHDVRQDQGZKHQFDOLEUDWLQJWKHSULFHGHULYDWLYHVWKHSHDN
HODVWLFLWLHVDUHUHGXFHGWRDYRLGWRRKLJKSULFHHODVWLFLWLHVDWKLJKSULFHOHYHOV
)RUWKHPHWDODQGSXOSDQGSDSHUVHFWRUVDQDGGLWLRQDOIDFWPRWLYDWHVWKHORZHUHODVWLFLWLHVLQWKHSHDN
EORFN7KHVHSURGXFWLRQSURFHVVHVLQWKHVHLQGXVWULHVVKRXOGEHUXQDWDVWHDG\VSHHGERWKZLWK
FRQFHUQWRWHFKQLFDOLWLHVDQGSURILWDELOLW\$KLJKSULFHLQWKHSHDNEORFNKRXUVZLOOQRWQHFHVVDU\OHDG
WRDODUJHUHGXFWLRQLQHOHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQEHFDXVHLWPD\EHPRUHFRVWO\WRFORVHGRZQWKH
SURGXFWLRQWKDQWRSD\DKLJKSULFHLQWKHSHDNEORFN,QVWHDGWKHDYHUDJHSULFHOHYHORYHUDORQJHU
SHULRGGHWHUPLQHVZKHWKHUWKH\SURGXFHRUQRW
:LWKRQHH[FHSWLRQWKHSULFHHODVWLFLWLHVDUHWKHVDPHLQDOOIRXUFRXQWULHV'DQLVKKRXVHKROGVIDFH
HOHFWULFLW\SULFHVZKLFKGXHWRWD[HVDUHWZRWLPHVDVKLJKDVWKHSULFHVLQRWKHUFRXQWULHV(OHFWULFLW\LV
DOVRRQO\WRDVPDOOH[WHQWXVHGIRUVSDFHKHDWLQJLQWKH'DQLVKUHVLGHQWLDOVHFWRU7KXVZHDVVXPH
WKDWWKHSRVVLELOLW\RIVXEVWLWXWLQJDZD\IURPHOHFWULFLW\LVOHVVWKDQLQWKHRWKHU1RUGLFFRXQWULHV
7KHUHIRUHWKHHODVWLFLWLHVIRU'DQLVKKRXVHKROGVDUHSHUFHQWORZHUWKDQWKHHODVWLFLWLHVOLVWHGLQ
WDEOH



*HQHUDWLRQFRVWV
:HDVVXPHFRQVWDQWUHDOIXHOSULFHVGXULQJWKHVLPXODWLRQSHULRGVHHWDEOH$LQWKHDSSHQGL[
'HQPDUNLVDODUJHDQGH[SHULHQFHGFRDOEX\HUDQGKDVWKHORZHVWFRDOSULFHVLQWKHPRGHO%LRIXHOV
ZRRGDQGSHDW DUHDZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGHQHUJ\VRXUFHZLWKLQVKRUWWUDQVSRUWGLVWDQFHVLQ)LQODQG
1DWXUDOJDVGHOLYHULHVWKURXJKH[LVWLQJSLSHOLQHVKDYHORZHVWSULFHLQ1RUZD\ ORFDWHGFORVHWRWKH
1RUWK6HD DQGLQ)LQODQG LPSRUWRI5XVVLDQJDV :HDVVXPHDGGLWLRQDOJDVYROXPHVWREHDYDLODEOH
IURPWKH1RUZHJLDQJDVILHOGV7UROODQGRU+DOWHQEDQNHQ*DVIURPWKHVHILHOGVWRSRZHUSODQWVLV
WKHQFKHDSHVWLQ1RUZD\ZKLOHWUDQVSRUWPDUJLQVOHDGWRVRPHZKDWKLJKHUSODQWSULFHVLQWKHRWKHU
FRXQWULHV7KHRWKHUYDULDEOHFRVWVDUHVKRZQLQWDEOH$
7DEOH$VKRZVFDSLWDOFRVWVDQGIXHOFRQYHUVLRQHIILFLHQFLHVE\WHFKQRORJ\$OOWHFKQRORJLHVDUHQRW
DYDLODEOHLQDOOFRXQWULHV'HQPDUN)LQODQGDQG6ZHGHQKDYHDOUHDG\QHWZRUNVIRUGLVWULFWKHDWLQJ
ZKLOHVXFKV\VWHPVDUHYHU\OLPLWHGLQ1RUZD\:HDVVXPHH[SORUDWLRQDQGRUWUDQVSRUWDWLRQFRVWVWR
SUHYHQWSHDWIXHOOHGSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQ1RUZD\DQG'HQPDUN1HZZDWHUIDOOVDYDLODEOHIRU
GHYHORSPHQWDUHORFDWHGLQ1RUZD\
7DEOH$VKRZVRXUDVVXPSWLRQVDERXWKHDWSULFHVLQWKH1RUGLFFRXQWULHV,QRUGHUQRWWR
RYHUHVWLPDWHWKHYDOXHRIKHDWSURGXFWLRQRXUHVWLPDWHGKHDWSULFHVDUHFRQVLGHUDEO\ORZHUWKDQWKH
KHDWSULFHXVHGLQ2OVHQDQG0XQNVJDDUG  7KHSRWHQWLDOIRUFRJHQHUDWLRQRIKHDWDQGSRZHU
YDULHV:KLOHFRJHQHUDWLRQFRYHUVSHUFHQWRIWKHGLVWULFWKHDWLQJSURGXFWLRQLQ'HQPDUNDQG
)LQODQGFRJHQHUDWHGKHDWDFFRXQWVIRURQO\SHUFHQWLQ6ZHGHQVHH2OVHQDQG0XQNVJDDUG  
7KHIUDFWLRQRIFRJHQHUDWHGSRZHUGLIIHUVDOVRKLJKO\DFURVVWKHFRXQWULHV7RGD\SXUHKHDWSODQWV
VXSSO\WKH6ZHGLVKGLVWULFWKHDWLQJV\VWHPV7KHUHIRUHWKHUHLVDODUJHSRWHQWLDOIRUFRJHQHUDWLRQ
7DEOH$UHSRUWVWKHSRWHQWLDOVIRUFRJHQHUDWLQJSRZHUFDSDFLW\
([LVWLQJDQGQHZQDWXUDOJDVSLSHOLQHVDQGUHVWULFWLRQVRQQDWLRQDOUHVRXUFHH[WUDFWLRQOLPLWWKHVXSSO\
RIIXHOVIRUXVHLQFRQYHQWLRQDOWKHUPDOSRZHUSODQWVVHHWDEOH$
:LQGDQGK\GURSRZHUKDYHORQJOLIHWLPHVDQGDUHQRWGHSUHFLDWHGGXULQJRXUVLPXODWLRQSHULRG 
 6ZHGLVKQXFOHDUSRZHUFDSDFLW\LVKHOGDW7:KIURP %DUVHElFN,DQG,,DUH
GHGXFWHG ,QDYHUDJHH[LVWLQJWKHUPDOFDSDFLW\KDVDUHVLGXDOOLIHWLPHRIDERXW\HDUVLQ2Q
WKLVEDVLVDSHUFHQWDQQXDOGHSUHFLDWLRQPD\VRXQGUHDVRQDEOH+RZHYHUZHKDYHFKRVHQWR
GHSUHFLDWHDWDVORZHUUDWH,QWHUQDWLRQDOH[SHULHQFHVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHUPDOSRZHUSODQWVRIWHQODVWIRUD



VLJQLILFDQWO\ORQJHUWLPHSHULRGWKDQLQLWLDOO\DVVXPHGVHH(OOHUPDQ  7KHUIRUHZHVWDUW


GHSUHFLDWLRQLQDWDQDQQXDOUDWHRISHUFHQW
,Q1RUZD\ZHOLPLWK\GURSRZHUH[SDQVLRQXQWLOWR7:K%DVHGRQLQIRUPDWLRQDYDLODEOHLQ
-DQXDU\)HEUXDU\1RUZHJLDQK\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLVDVVXPHGWREH7:KLQ
+RZHYHUZKHQWKLVLVZULWWHQLWLVFOHDUWKDWZDWHULQIORZDQGVQRZIDOOVGXULQJZLQWHUKDVEHHQ
PXFKULFKHUWKDQLQLWLDOO\DVVXPHG7KHILJXUHVUHSRUWHGIRUVKRXOGEHYLHZHGLQWKLVOLJKW
,QWHUQDWLRQDOHOHFWULFLW\WUDGHDQGSULFHV
7DEOH$OLVWVWKHPDUJLQDOFRVWVRIHOHFWULFWUDQVPLVVLRQDPRQJWKH1RUGLFFRXQWULHVFXUUHQW
FDSDFLWLHVDQGH[SDQVLRQFRVWV
7KHWUDGHEHWZHHQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHVDQGFRXQWULHVRXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHDLVFUXFLDOIRUWKHVLPXODWLRQ
UHVXOWV)LJXUHVKRZVWKHWUDQVPLVVLRQFDSDFLW\EHWZHHQHDFK1RUGLFFRXQWU\DQGFRXQWULHVRXWVLGH
WKH1RUGLFDUHDGXULQJRXUVLPXODWLRQSHULRG
)LJXUH7UDQVPLVVLRQFDSDFLW\RXWRIWKH1RUGLFDUHD0:




125
6:(
'(1
),1
































:KLOH'HQPDUNDQG)LQODQGKDYHXQFKDQJHGFDSDFLW\WR*HUPDQ\DQG5XVVLD DQG0: D


QHZFDEOHEHWZHHQ6ZHGHQDQG3RODQGRSHUDWHVIURP,QDGGLWLRQZHDVVXPHWZRSODQQHG
0:FDEOHVEHWZHHQ1RUZD\DQG*HUPDQ\WRRSHUDWHIURP



)LJXUH3RZHUSULFHGHYHORSPHQWLQFRXQWULHVRXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHDUHN:K





%DVH



0HGLXP



+LJK



3HDN


























3HDNEORFNSHULRGVDUHVKRUWDQGDUHRIPRGHUDWHLPSRUWDQFHIRUDJJUHJDWHWUDGHYROXPHVDQG
GRPHVWLFSULFHV7KHEDVHPHGLXPDQGKLJKEORFNSULFHVDUHPRVWLPSRUWDQW2XWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHD
ZHDVVXPHEDVHEORFNSULFHVWRUHPDLQDWUHN:KWRZDUGVWKHHQGRIWKHVLPXODWLRQSHULRG
7KHUPDOSRZHUGRPLQDWHQHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHV
SRZHUV\VWHPVDQGZHDVVXPHEDVHEORFNSULFHVWR
UHPDLQORZVLPSO\EHFDXVHDQXPEHURISURGXFHUVILQGLWSURILWDEOHWRUXQLQEDVHORDGPRGHDQGWKXV
VXSSO\SRZHUGXULQJWKHEDVHEORFNSHULRGLQVWHDGRIWDNLQJGDLO\VWDUWDQGVWRSFRVWV0HGLXPDQG
KLJKEORFNSULFHVDUHDQGSHUFHQWDERYHWKHEDVHEORFNSULFH)LQODQG
VQRQ1RUGLFWUDQVPLVVLRQ
OLQHVJRHVWR5XVVLD:HDVVXPH5XVVLDQSRZHUSULFHVWRVWD\ORZIRUDORQJHUSHULRGWKDQLQFHQWUDO
(XURSH7KHUHIRUHZHDVVXPH5XVVLDQSULFHVWRYDU\OHVVDQGWRFRQWLQXHWREHORZIRUDORQJHUSHULRG
WKDQSULFHVLQFHQWUDO(XURSHGR

5HVXOWV
:HVLPXODWHWZRVFHQDULRVRQHZLWKRXWQHZJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\1RJDVDQGRQHVFHQDULRZLWKJDV
SRZHULQ1RUZD\*DV,QWKH*DVVFHQDULRZHLQFOXGHWZRODUJHVFDOHFRPELQHGF\FOHJDVSRZHU
SODQWV 0:HDFK ZLWKDWRWDODQQXDOJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLW\RI7:K,QWKHDQDO\VLVZHLQFOXGH
WKHVHSODQWVLUUHVSHFWLYHRIWKHLUSURILWDELOLW\LQRUGHUWRVWXG\WKHLPSDFWVRQWKHUHVWRIWKHPDUNHW
$GGLWLRQDOJDVSRZHUSODQWVLQ1RUZD\KDYHWRSD\WKHRSSRUWXQLW\JDVFRVWRUWKHZRUOGPDUNHWJDV
SULFHJLYHQE\WDEOH$



UH 1NU 86



,QWKH1RJDVFDVH1RUGLFSRZHUSULFHVLQFUHDVH\HDUE\\HDUGXHWRGHPDQGJURZWKGHSUHFLDWLRQRI
JHQHUDWLRQHTXLSPHQWDQGWKHUHE\DPRUHWLJKWPDUNHW6RPHFKHDSK\GURSRZHUDQGYDULRXV
FRPELQHGKHDWDQGSRZHUSODQWVDUHGHYHORSHGGXULQJWKHVLPXODWLRQSHULRGDQGQHWLPSRUWVIURP
FRXQWULHVRXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHDLQFUHDVH%\WKHHQGRIWKHVLPXODWLRQSHULRGSULFHVKDYHUHDFKHGWKH
ORQJWHUPPDUJLQDOFRVWRIFRPELQHGF\FOHJDVWXUELQHSODQWVZLWKRXWKHDWXWLOL]DWLRQ)LJXUHVKRZV
WKHGHYHORSPHQWRI1RUZHJLDQSRZHUSULFHVIRUHDFKVHSDUDWHORDGEORFNXQWLO
)LJXUH1RUZHJLDQSRZHUSULFHVLQWKH1RJDVFDVHE\ORDGEORFNUHN:K



%$6(/2$'



0(',/2$'



+,*+/2$'



3($./2$'































1RUZHJLDQDQQXDODYHUDJHSRZHUSULFHVLQFUHDVHWRDERXWUHLQVLQFHDQGZDVZHW
DQGZHH[SHFWSUHFLSLWDWLRQDQGWHPSHUDWXUHVWREHFORVHWRQRUPDOLQDQGQRUPDOIURP
+RZHYHUVXUSOXVFDSDFLW\DQGORZSULFHVLQ1RUZD\
VQHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHVNHHSLPSRUWVKLJKDQG
1RUZHJLDQSULFHVORZXQWLO)URPWRWKHDVVXPHGSULFHJURZWKLQFRXQWULHVRXWVLGH
WKH1RUGLFDUHDFDXVHV1RUZHJLDQSULFHVWRLQFUHDVHDVZHOO:KLOHPHGLXPDQGKLJKEORFNSULFHVDUH
HTXDOEDVHEORFNSULFHVDUHORZHUDQGSHDNEORFNSULFHVKLJKHUWKDQSULFHVLQLQWHUPHGLDWHEORFNV
'HVSLWHWKHKLJKIOH[LELOLW\DQGUHJXODWLRQDELOLW\RIK\GURSRZHU1RUZHJLDQSULFHVGLIIHUDFURVVORDG
EORFNV7KHUHDVRQLVSK\VLFDOFRQVWUDLQWVRQKRZPXFKWKHDJJUHJDWHK\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQPD\EH
YDULHGRYHUWKHGD\,QRXUPRGHOSHDNEORFNJHQHUDWLRQLVFRQVWUDLQHGWREHQRPRUHWKDQSHUFHQW
KLJKHUWKDQWKHEDVHEORFNK\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQEHFDXVHRIOLPLWVRQWKHYDULDWLRQLQZDWHUIORZRYHU
WKHGD\,QFUHDVHGK\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQGXULQJWKHEDVHEORFNDOORZKLJKHUSHDNJHQHUDWLRQWRJRRG



SULFHVDVZHOO7KLVH[WUDSD\PHQWIRUEDVHJHQHUDWLRQORZHUVWKHPDUJLQDOFRVWRIEDVHJHQHUDWLRQDQG
EDVHEORFNHTXLOLEULXPSULFHVIDOO
,QILJXUHZHGLVFXVVHGKRZQHZJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\FRXOGDIIHFWWKHHOHFWULFLW\SULFHVXQGHU
YDULRXVPDUNHWVLWXDWLRQV)LJXUHVKRZVSULFHFKDQJHVLQ1RUZD\DQG'HQPDUNDVWKHWZRQHZ
1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUSODQWVDUHLQWURGXFHG
)LJXUH 3ULFHFKDQJHE\ORDGEORFNIURPWKH1RJDVWR*DVFDVHLQ1RUZD\DQG'HQPDUN
3HUFHQW
1RUZD\

'HQPDUN

-1

-1

-2

-2

-3

-3

-4

-4
B AS EL OAD

B AS EL OAD

-5

-5

MEDIL OAD

-6

HIGHL OAD

-7

HIGHL OAD

-7

P EAK L OAD

-8

MEDIL OAD

-6

P EAK L OAD

-8

-9

-9

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

,QPRVW\HDUVEDVHEORFNSULFHVVKRZWKHVKDUSHVWSULFHIDOOVLQFHWKHDGGLWLRQDOSRZHUYROXPHLQWKLV
SHULRGLVODUJHVWFRPSDUHGWRWKHGHPDQGOHYHO0HGLXPDQGKLJKEORFNSULFHVIDOODVZHOOEXWQRWDV
PXFKDVWKHEDVHEORFNSULFH8QWLO1RUZHJLDQSULFHVFKDQJHPRUHWKDQ'DQLVKSULFHV
LQGLFDWLQJIUHTXHQWWUDQVPLVVLRQFRQVWUDLQWV7KHGLIIHUHQFHVEHWZHHQWKH1RJDVDQG*DVFDVHVDUH
ODUJHLQWKHEHJLQQLQJRIWKHSHULRGDQGWKHQUHGXFHGXQWLOZKHQWKHGLIIHUHQFHVLQFUHDVHDJDLQ
'XULQJWKHSHULRGROGJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLW\GHSUHFLDWHVDQGLQYHVWPHQWVLQVRPHQHZSRZHU
SODQWVPDLQO\&+3DQGK\GURHOHFWULFSODQWVWDNHSODFH$WWKHVDPHWLPHGHPDQGLQFUHDVHVDQGWKHUH
LVDVWHDG\JURZWKLQWKHLPSRUWVDQGUHGXFWLRQRIH[SRUWVWRFRXQWULHVRXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHD7KHVH
PRYHPHQWVOHDGWROHVVWUDQVPLVVLRQFRQJHVWLRQPRUHHTXDOSULFHVDFURVVFRXQWULHVDQGPRUH
GHSHQGHQFHRQLPSRUWVIURPFRXQWULHVRXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHD&RQVHTXHQWO\WKHSULFHLPSDFWVIURP
QHZJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\LVJUDGXDOO\UHGXFHG7KHSLFWXUHFKDQJHVGUDPDWLFDOO\LQ,QWKLV\HDU
1RUGLFSRZHULPSRUWVIURPRWKHUFRXQWULHVUHDFKHVWKHWUDQVPLVVLRQOLPLW7KHUHIRUHQHZJDVSRZHU
IURP1RUZD\GRHVQRWDOWHUWUDGHZLWKFRXQWULHVRXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHDDQGDOOWKHJDVSRZHULVWREH
DEVRUEHGE\WKH1RUGLFPDUNHW,QWKH1RUGLFSRZHUPDUNHWLVDWDQXSZDUGVORSLQJRULQVRPH
SHULRGVWKHYHUWLFDOSDUWRIWKHDJJUHJDWH1RUGLFSRZHUVXSSO\FXUYHZKLFKLPSOLHVWKDWSULFHVKDYHWR
IDOOWRFOHDUWKHPDUNHW,QGHPDQGDQGSULFHVLVHYHQKLJKHUDQGZHKDYHUHDFKHGWKHOHYHORI


WKHORQJWHUPPDUJLQDOFRVWIRUJDVSRZHU,QWKLVVLWXDWLRQQHZJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\UHSODFHVQHZ
JDVSRZHULQ6ZHGHQDQGSULFHVFKDQJHYHU\OLWWOH7KHVHPHFKDQLVPVPD\EHLOOXVWUDWHGE\D
GHFRPSRVLWLRQRITXDQWLW\FKDQJHVIROORZLQJWKHLQWURGXFWLRQRIQHZJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\,QILJXUH
ZHVKRZWRZKLFKH[WHQWWKHQHZ1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUOHDGVWR
 ,QFUHDVHGSRZHUFRQVXPSWLRQLQ1RUZD\
 ,QFUHDVHGSRZHUFRQVXPSWLRQLQRWKHU1RUGLFFRXQWULHV
 5HGXFHGJHQHUDWLRQIURPRWKHUSRZHUVRXUFHV
 ,QFUHDVHGH[SRUWVUHGXFHGLPSRUWVIURPQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHV
)LJXUH 'HFRPSRVLWLRQRILPSDFWVZKHQ7:KQHZ1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHULVIHGLQWRWKH
1RUGLFSRZHUPDUNHW7:K

,QFUHDVHGH[SRUWVUHGXFHG


LPSRUWVI URPFRXQWULHV
RXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHD


5HGXFHGJHQHUDWLRQLQWKH
UHVWRI WKH1RUGLFDUHD

,QFUHDVHGFRQVXPSWLRQLQWKH

UHVWRI WKH1RUGLFDUHD

,QFUHDVHGFRQVXPSWLRQLQ
1RUZ D\


















,QFUHDVHG1RUZHJLDQDQG1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQDEVRUEVEHWZHHQDQG7:KRIWKHJDV
SRZHUYROXPHDQGWKHSDWWHUQPLUURUVWKHSDWWHUQRIWKHSULFHFKDQJHVLQILJXUH1RUZHJLDQSRZHU
JHQHUDWLRQIURPRWKHUVRXUFHVGRHVQRWFKDQJHZKHQJDVSRZHULVLQWURGXFHG*HQHUDWLRQLQWKHRWKHU
FRXQWULHVKRZHYHUFKDQJHV0DUJLQDOWHFKQRORJLHVDUHVXEVWLWXWHGDQGEHIRUH1RUZHJLDQJDV
SRZHUVXEVWLWXWHV'DQLVKFRDO6ZHGLVKRLODQG)LQQLVKRLODQGFRDOEDVHGSRZHU%\WKHHQGRIWKH
SHULRG1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUUHSODFHVJDVSRZHULQ6ZHGHQDQG)LQODQG7KHVORSHRIWKHVXSSO\
FXUYHDQGWKHFDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQRIWUDQVPLVVLRQOLQHVWRQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHVGHWHUPLQHWKH
PDJQLWXGHRIWKHVXEVWLWXWHGYROXPH,QDQGUHODWLYHSULFHVDQGWUDQVPLVVLRQFDSDFLWLHV
EHWZHHQWKH1RUGLFDUHDDQGQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHVDUHVXFKWKDWLQFOXVLRQRIQHZ1RUZHJLDQJDV
SRZHUOHDGVWRDFKDQJHLQQHWSRZHUH[SRUWVIURP1RUGLFFRXQWULHVDQGQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHVRIDERXW
7:K,QDQGQHW1RUGLFSRZHUH[SRUWVLQFUHDVHZLWKRQO\7:K,QDQG



WKHUHLVKDUGO\QRFKDQJHLQWKHWUDGHRXWRIWKH1RUGLFDUHDVLQFHLPSRUWFDSDFLWLHVDUHQHDUIXOO
XWLOL]DWLRQERWKLQWKH1RJDVDQGLQWKH*DVVFHQDULR
:KHQ1RUZD\SURGXFHV7:KQHZJDVSRZHU1RUZHJLDQ&2HPLVVLRQVLQFUHDVHZLWK
PLOOLRQWRQV$VWKH1RUZHJLDQJHQHUDWLRQWRVRPHH[WHQWVXEVWLWXWHV6ZHGLVK'DQLVKDQG)LQQLVKRLO
FRDODQGJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQHPLVVLRQVIURPWKHVHFRXQWULHV
SRZHUVHFWRUFKDQJHVHHILJXUH
)LJXUH &KDQJHLQ&2HPLVVLRQVIURPSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQ6ZHGHQ'HQPDUNDQG)LQODQG
IURPWKH1RJDVWR*DVVFHQDULR0LOOLRQWRQV



)LQODQG



'HQPDUN


6Z HGHQ


















'XULQJWKHILUVWWZR\HDUV1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUUHSODFHV'DQLVKJHQHUDWLRQZKLOHLQDQG
LWLV)LQQLVKHPLVVLRQVIURPRLODQGFRDOSRZHUWKDWGHFUHDVH,QDQGLWLVPDLQO\6ZHGLVK
JHQHUDWLRQWKDWLVVXEVWLWXWHG,QWKH1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUUHSODFHVVRPH6ZHGLVKRLOEDVHG
SRZHUZKLOHLWUHSODFHVQHZ6ZHGLVKJDVSRZHUFDSDFLW\LQ,Q)LQQLVKHPLVVLRQVLQFUHDVH
ZKHQJDVSRZHULVLQWURGXFHGLQ1RUZD\7KHLQFUHDVHLQ)LQQLVKHPLVVLRQVVWHPVIURPDFKDQJHLQ
WKHSRZHUSURGXFWLRQWHFKQRORJ\PL[LQ)LQODQGIURPWKH1RJDVWRWKH*DVFDVHWKLV\HDU,QWKHJDV
FDVH1RUZHJLDQSRZHUH[SRUWWR6ZHGHQLQFUHDVHVDQG6ZHGHQUHH[SRUWVDODUJHVKDUHRIWKLVSRZHU
YROXPHWR)LQODQG,QDJJUHJDWH)LQODQG
VQHWLPSRUWULVHVIURP7:KLQWKH1RJDVVFHQDULRWR
7:KLQWKH*DVFDVHLQ7KLVFKDQJHOHDGVWRDVKLIWIURPJDVSRZHU 7:K WRRLOEDVHG
SRZHUJHQHUDWLRQ 7:K LQ)LQODQG%RWKWHFKQRORJLHVXWLOL]HWKHKHDWEXWFRJHQHUDWLRQLQROG
RLOEDVHGSODQWVJLYHOHVVHOHFWULFLW\SHUKHDWXQLWWKDQJDVEDVHGFRJHQHUDWLRQLQQHZSODQWV7KH
ORZHUHOHFWULFLW\SULFHVLQWKH*DVVFHQDULRWKDQLQWKH1RJDVVFHQDULRSUHYHQW GHOD\ LQYHVWPHQWVLQ
QHZJDVFRJHQHUDWLRQDQGLQVWHDGVRPHROGRLOFRJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLW\EHFRPHVSURILWDEOH



:KHQDGGLQJWKHHPLVVLRQFKDQJHVLQILJXUHWRWKHLQLWLDOPLOOLRQWRQVLQFUHDVHLQ1RUZD\ZH
VHHWKDWHPLVVLRQVIURPDJJUHJDWH1RUGLFSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQFUHDVHLQDOO\HDUV7KHQHWLQFUHDVHLV
KRZHYHUFORVHWR]HURLQDQG
:KLOHRXUPRGHOWKUHDWVWKH1RUGLFSRZHUPDUNHWLQVRPHGHWDLOLWGRHVQRWLQFOXGHHPLVVLRQFKDQJHV
LQQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHVZKHQWKHQHW1RUGLFSRZHUH[SRUWVFKDQJH:KLOHWKH)LQQLVKLPSRUWIURP
5XVVLDQRWLVDIIHFWHG6ZHGLVK'DQLVKDQG1RUZHJLDQWUDGHZLWK3RODQG*HUPDQ\DQG7KH
1HWKHUODQGVRIWHQFKDQJHZKHQQHZJDVSRZHULVSURGXFHGLQ1RUZD\7KHUHDUHDQXPEHURISRVVLEOH
HIIHFWV$VVKRZQLQILJXUHDERYHLQFUHDVHG1RUGLFH[SRUWPD\UHSODFHDGGRUSDUWO\UHSODFHDQG
DGGWRWKHH[LVWLQJHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQLQQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHV,I1RUGLFH[SRUWVUHSODFHQRQ
1RUGLFJHQHUDWLRQHPLVVLRQFKDQJHVGHSHQGRQWKHHPLVVLRQVIURPWKHPDUJLQDOSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQ
WHFKQRORJLHV7KH1RUGLFH[SRUWVWRIRULQVWDQFH*HUPDQ\PD\DOVRUHSODFH*HUPDQLPSRUWIURPIRU
LQVWDQFH)UDQFH QXFOHDUSRZHU ,QWKLVFDVHHPLVVLRQVLQQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHVPD\KDUGO\FKDQJH
)XOOUHSODFHPHQWRISRZHUIURPROGFRDOEDVHGSODQWVUHSUHVHQWVDQXSSHUOLPLWIRUWKHHPLVVLRQ
UHGXFWLRQFRQQHFWHGWR1RUGLFSRZHUH[SRUW)LJXUHVKRZVWRWDO1RUGLFHPLVVLRQVIURPSRZHU
JHQHUDWLRQFRUUHFWHGIRUHPLVVLRQFKDQJHVLQQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHV
)LJXUH 1RUGLF&2HPLVVLRQVIURPSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQFRUUHFWHGIRUHPLVVLRQFKDQJHVLQQRQ
1RUGLFFRXQWULHV&KDQJHIURPWKH1RJDVWR*DVVFHQDULR0LOOLRQWRQV


























$IWHUFRUUHFWLQJIRUHPLVVLRQFKDQJHVRXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHDZHVHHWKDWWKHPDLQSLFWXUHLVUHGXFHG
HPLVVLRQV  ZKLOHWKHUHDUHKDUGO\QRHPLVVLRQEHQHILWVLQ VKRUWWHUPORZFDSDFLW\
XWLOL]DWLRQ DQG ORQJWHUPKLJKFDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQ $JDLQWKH\HDUVWDQGVRXW6LQFHWKH



FKDQJHLQWKHQHW1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\H[SRUWZDVFORVHWR]HURWKLV\HDUWKHFRUUHFWLRQLVQHJOLJLEOHDQG
WKHH[SODQDWLRQIRUWKHLQFUHDVHGHPLVVLRQVLVWKHVDPHDVDERYH
6HQVLWLYLW\DQDO\VLV
)XWXUHSRZHUSULFHVLQFRXQWULHVRXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHDDUHKLJKO\XQFHUWDLQDQGLPSRUWDQWIRURXU
UHVXOWV7KHUHIRUHZHVLPXODWHGWKHPRGHOZLWKVHWVRIKLJKHUDQGORZHUQRQ1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\SULFHV
WKDQXVHGDERYH
+LJKHOHFWULFLW\SULFHVRXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHD
7KHKLJKSULFHDOWHUQDWLYHV 1RJDV+DQG*DV+ KDYHDEDVHORDGSULFHLQQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHVRI
UHN:KZKLOHPHGLXPSULFHVDUHUHDQGKLJKSHDNEORFNKDYHUH+LJKHUSULFHVOHDGWR
OHVVLPSRUWDQGPRUHH[SRUWVWRQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHVWKDQLQWKHSUHYLRXVFDOFXODWLRQVDQGKLJKHU
1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\SULFHV3RZHUSULFHVPRYHIDVWHUWRZDUGVWKHORQJWHUPHTXLOLEULXPOHYHO7KHUHIRUH
WKHLPSDFWVIURPLQFUHDVHGJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQ1RUZD\DUHGLIIHUHQWLQWKLVFDVH)LJXUHVKRZV
KRZ7:KQHZJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\DIIHFWFRQVXPSWLRQJHQHUDWLRQDQGWUDGHSDWWHUQV)LJXUH
LVRIWKHVDPHW\SHDVILJXUHDERYH
)LJXUH 'HFRPSRVLWLRQRILPSDFWVZKHQ7:KQHZ1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHULVIHGLQWRWKH
1RUGLFSRZHUPDUNHWLQDVLWXDWLRQZLWKKLJKQRQ1RUGLFSULFHV7:K



,QFUHDVHGH[SRUWVUHGXFHG


LPSRUWVIURPFRXQWULHV
RXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHD


5HGXFHGJHQHUDWLRQLQWKH


UHVWRIWKH1RUGLFDUHD


,QFUHDVHGFRQVXPSWLRQLQWKH


UHVWRIWKH1RUGLFDUHD


,QFUHDVHGFRQVXPSWLRQLQ
1RUZD\




















7KHUHVWRIWKH1RUZHJLDQJHQHUDWLRQGRHVQRWFKDQJHH[FHSWIRULQZKHQ7:KK\GURSRZHU
EHFRPHVQRQSURILWDEOHWRH[SDQGZKHQJDVSRZHULVLQWURGXFHG7KHSULFHFKDQJHVDUHYHU\PRGHUDWH
DQGKHQFHWKHFKDQJHVLQFRQVXPSWLRQ)RUVRPHRIWKH\HDUVWKHFDSDFLW\DGGLWLRQLQ1RUZD\OHDGV


WRKLJKHUHOHFWULFLW\SULFHVDQGVOLJKWO\UHGXFHGFRQVXPSWLRQLQ)LQODQGVLQFHWKLVFRXQWU\QRZLQYHVW
OHVVLQSRZHUJHQHUDWLQJFDSDFLW\+LJKHUFRQVXPHUSULFHVDQGORZHUSURGXFHUSULFHVDWWKHVDPHWLPH
PD\EHFRQVLVWHQWVLPSO\EHFDXVHRIWKHHOHFWULFLW\WUDGH'XULQJPRVWRIWKHQHZJDVSRZHULV
XVHGWRORZHULPSRUWVLQFUHDVHH[SRUW7KHUHDIWHUUHSODFHPHQWRI1RUGLFJHQHUDWLRQGRPLQDWHVXQWLO
ZKHQWKHFKDQJHLQQRQ1RUGLFWUDGHDQG1RUGLFJHQHUDWLRQURXJKO\DFFRXQWVIRUHTXDOVKDUHV
RIWKHLQGXFHGFKDQJH,QWKHVLWXDWLRQLVVRPHZKDWGLIIHUHQWIURPWKHRWKHU\HDUV7KLV\HDUWKH
1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUSXWVDSUHVVXUHRQEDVHDQGPHGLXPEORFNSULFHVLQ1RUZD\$VDUHVXOWWKH
1RUZHJLDQH[SRUWVWR6ZHGHQGXULQJWKHEDVHDQGPHGLXPEORFNLQFUHDVH7KH1RUZHJLDQH[SRUWVWR
6ZHGHQUHSODFHODUJHDPRXQWVRILPSRUWVIURP)LQODQG,QLWLDOO\)LQQLVKEDVHDQGPHGLXPEORFN
SULFHVIDOODQGPDNHDORWRIFDSDFLW\XQSURILWDEOH$WWKHVDPHWLPH6ZHGLVKH[SRUWVWR)LQODQGGXULQJ
KLJKDQGSHDNORDGKDYHEHFRPHFKHDSHU7KDWWRRUHGXFHVWKHFDSDFLW\QHHGVZLWKLQ)LQODQG/HVV
FDSDFLW\DQGWKHPRYHPHQWIURPEHLQJDQHWH[SRUWHULQWKH1RJDV+FDVHWREHLQJDQHWLPSRUWHULQ
WKH*DV+VFHQDULROHDGVWRKLJKHUFRQVXPHUSULFHVLQKLJKDQGSHDNEORFN7KLVPRYHPHQWOHDGVWRDQ
LQFUHDVHRISRZHULPSRUWVIURP5XVVLDRIDERXW7:K7KHLPSDFWVLQDUHODUJHVLQFHWKHUH
VWLOOLVXQXVHGWUDQVPLVVLRQFDSDFLW\DQGJHQHUDWLRQLQYHVWPHQWVPD\EHYHU\ODUHJLQDVLQJOHFRXQWU\
$IWHUGHPDQGJURZWKGHSUHFLDWLRQDQGKLJKHUXWLOL]DWLRQRIWUDQVPLVVLRQFDSDFLWLHVOHDGVWR
PRUHQRUPDODQGSUHGLFWDEOHHIIHFWV
1HZJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\KDVRWKHULPSDFWVZKHQSULFHVDUHKLJKWKDQZKHQSULFHVDUHDVLQWKHEDVH
FDVHFRPSDUHILJXUHZLWKILJXUHDERYH7KHUHIRUHWKHLPSDFWVRQHPLVVLRQVFKDQJHDVZHOOVHH
ILJXUH



)LJXUH 1RUGLF&2HPLVVLRQVIURPSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQFRUUHFWHGIRUHPLVVLRQFKDQJHVLQQRQ
1RUGLFFRXQWULHV&KDQJHIURPWKH1RJDV+WR*DV+VFHQDULR0LOOLRQWRQV

























&RUUHFWHGHPLVVLRQVGHFUHDVHE\QHDUPLOOLRQWRQVLQVLQFHQHDUO\DOOWKH1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHU
UHSODFHVJHQHUDWLRQLQQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHV FRDOSRZHUE\DVVXPSWLRQ ,QWKHIROORZLQJ\HDUV
HPLVVLRQVGRQRWFKDQJHPXFKH[FHSWIRULQZKHQFRUUHFWHGHPLVVLRQVLQFUHDVHZLWKPLOOLRQ
WRQVVHHWKHDERYHGLVFXVVLRQRILPSDFWVWKLV\HDU7KHVPDOOFKDQJHVLQHPLVVLRQVLQWKH\HDUV
DQGLVPDLQO\GXHWRWKHIDFWWKDWLQFUHDVHG1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQWRD
ODUJHH[WHQWUHSODFHVJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQRWKHUFRXQWULHVPDLQO\)LQODQG7KLVVXEVWLWXWLRQGRHV
QRWDOWHUHPLVVLRQVDVVXFK
/RZSRZHUSULFHVRXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHD
,QWKHDOWHUQDWLYHVZLWKORZSULFHV 1RJDV/DQG*DV/ ZHDSSO\DEDVHEORFNSULFHRIUHN:KD
PHGLXPEORFNSULFHRIUHN:KZKLOHWKHKLJKDQGSHDNEORFNSULFHVDUHUHN:K7KHVHORZ
SULFHVDVVXPHODUJHDQGORQJOLYHGRYHUFDSDFLW\LQQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHVLQSDUWLFXODU*HUPDQ\1HZ
JDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\LVKDUGO\SURILWDEOHLQWKLVFDVH+RZHYHULILQWURGXFHGE\SROLWLFDOGHFLVLRQV
LPSDFWVRQFRQVXPSWLRQJHQHUDWLRQDQGWUDGHZLWKQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHVDUHDVLQILJXUH



)LJXUH 'HFRPSRVLWLRQRILPSDFWVZKHQ7:KQHZ1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHULVIHGLQWRWKH
1RUGLFSRZHUPDUNHWLQDVLWXDWLRQZLWKORZQRQ1RUGLFSULFHV7:K

,QFUHDVHGH[SRUWVUHGXFHG
LPSRUWVI URPFRXQWULHV

RXWVLGHWKH1RUGLFDUHD
5HGXFHGJHQHUDWLRQLQWKH

UHVWRI WKH1RUGLFDUHD

,QFUHDVHGFRQVXPSWLRQLQWKH
UHVWRI WKH1RUGLFDUHD

,QFUHDVHGFRQVXPSWLRQLQ


1RUZ D\
















6RPHRIWKHEDUVKDYHDORZHUKHLJKWWKDQ7:KEHFDXVHWKHUHDUHVRPHVXEVWLWXWLRQRIRWKHU
1RUZHJLDQJHQHUDWLRQZKHQWKHJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQFUHDVHV)RULQVWDQFHLQWKH1RUZHJLDQ
K\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLV7:KORZHULQWKH*DV/DOWHUQDWLYHWKDQLQWKH1RJDV/VFHQDULR7KH
WUDQVPLVVLRQFDSDFLW\EHWZHHQWKH1RUGLFDUHDDQGQRQ1RUGLFFRXQWULHVLVIXOO\XWLOL]HGIRUHOHFWULFLW\
LPSRUWVDQGQHZJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\GRHVH[FHSWIRUDYHU\VPDOOYROXPHGXULQJQRW
VXEVWLWXWHWKLVLPSRUW&RQVHTXHQWO\SULFHVIDOOPRUHZLWKLQWKH1RUGLFDUHDLQRUGHUWRJHWWKHQHZ
SRZHUDEVRUEHGE\WKHPDUNHW7KHPDLQSLFWXUHLVWKDW1RUZHJLDQDQG1RUGLFSRZHUFRQVXPSWLRQ
LQFUHDVHVZLWK7:KZKLOH1RUGLFJHQHUDWLRQRXWVLGH1RUZD\IDOOVZLWKDERXW7:KSHU
\HDU7KHSULFHHIIHFWVDQGWKHUHIRUHFRQVXPSWLRQUHVSRQVHVDUHFORVHWR]HURLQZKHQWKH
1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUUHSODFHV6ZHGLVKJDVSRZHUZKLFKWKHQLVWKHPDUJLQDOJHQHUDWLRQWHFKQRORJ\
:KLOHJHQHUDWLRQLQ)LQODQGRIWHQZDVPDUJLQDOLQWKHPHGLXPDQGKLJKSULFHUXQVGLVFXVVHGLQWKH
SUHYLRXVVXEVHFWLRQVORZQRQ1RUGLFSULFHVOHDGWRODUJHULPSDFWVRQJHQHUDWLRQLQ6ZHGHQDQG
'HQPDUNZKHQ1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQFUHDVHV7KHKXJHLPSRUWVIURPQRQ1RUGLF
FRXQWULHVNHHS1RUGLFFDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQDQGLQYHVWPHQWVORZIRUDORQJHUSHULRGWKDQLQWKHSUHYLRXV
UXQV7KHUHIRUHWKHHPLVVLRQFKDQJHVPD\GLIIHUVHHILJXUH



)LJXUH 1RUGLF&2HPLVVLRQVIURPSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQFRUUHFWHGIRUHPLVVLRQFKDQJHVLQQRQ
1RUGLFFRXQWULHV&KDQJHIURPWKH1RJDV/WR*DV/VFHQDULR0LOOLRQWRQV

























,QDERXW7:K'DQLVKFRDOSRZHUZLWKORZIXHOFRQYHUVLRQHIILFLHQF\LVVXEVWLWXWHGDQG
FRUUHFWHGHPLVVLRQVIDOOZLWKQHDUO\PLOOLRQWRQV'XULQJWKHVXEVHTXHQW\HDUV
FRUUHFWHGHPLVVLRQVKDUGO\FKDQJHDQGWKHLQFUHDVHLQ1RUZD\LVRXWZHLJKHGE\UHGXFHGHPLVVLRQVLQ
WKHRWKHU1RUGLFFRXQWULHV,QHPLVVLRQVLQFUHDVHZKHQJDVSRZHULVSURGXFHGLQ1RUZD\7KLV
\HDUWKHJDVSRZHUVXEVWLWXWHV7:KRIK\GURSRZHULQ1RUZD\1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\FRQVXPSWLRQ
LQFUHDVHVZLWK7:KDQGWKHUHVWRIWKHJDVSRZHUYROXPHVXEVWLWXWHHIILFLHQWJDVSRZHULQ)LQODQG
,QZKHQ1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUUHSODFH6ZHGLVKJDVSRZHUWKHUHLVRQO\DVOLJKWLQFUHDVHRI
HPLVVLRQVEHFDXVHFRQVXPSWLRQLQFUHDVHVYHU\OLWWOH

&RQFOXVLRQV
8WLOL]DWLRQRI1RUZHJLDQQDWXUDOJDVUHVRXUFHVIRUHOHFWULFLW\JHQHUDWLRQLQ1RUZD\KDVQRFHUWDLQ
LPSDFWRQJOREDOHPLVVLRQVIURPHOHFWULFLW\SURGXFWLRQ7UDQVPLVVLRQFDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQLVYHU\
LPSRUWDQWIRUWKHLPSDFWVRQHPLVVLRQV&RQJHVWHGWUDQVPLVVLRQOLQNVSUHYHQWVXEVWLWXWLRQRILQVRPH
FDVHVOHVVHIILFLHQWDQGPRUHSROOXWLQJJHQHUDWLRQWHFKQRORJLHVLQQHLJKERULQJFRXQWULHV*HQHUDWLRQ
FDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQLVLPSRUWDQWDVZHOO,IFDSDFLW\XWLOL]DWLRQLVORZROGSODQWVZLWKUHODWLYHO\ORZ
HIILFLHQF\DUHPDUJLQDODQGWKHHPLVVLRQEHQHILWVPD\EHVLJQLILFDQW+RZHYHULIJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLW\
XWLOL]DWLRQLVKLJKDQGSULFHVHTXDOORQJWHUPPDUJLQDOFRVWVQHZDQGHIILFLHQWJDVSRZHUSODQWVPD\
EHPDUJLQDODQGHPLVVLRQEHQHILWVDUHQHJOLJLEOH2XUFDOFXODWLRQVLQFOXGH\HDUVZLWKLQFUHDVHG
HPLVVLRQVDQG\HDUVZLWKUHGXFHGHPLVVLRQV5HGXFHGHPLVVLRQVDUHPRVWIUHTXHQWO\REVHUYHGLQWKH
ILUVW\HDUVDIWHULQWURGXFWLRQRIJDVSRZHULQ1RUZD\ZKHQWKHUHDUHVRPHVSDUHWUDQVPLVVLRQDQG


JHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLW\/DWHULQWKHVLPXODWLRQSHULRGZHREVHUYHRQHRUWZR\HDUVZLWKLQFUHDVHG
HPLVVLRQV'XULQJWKHVH\HDUVWUDQVPLVVLRQOLQNVRXWRIWKH1RUGLFDUHDDUHFRQJHVWHGDQGDOOWKHQHZ
JDVSRZHUKDVWREHDEVRUEHGLQWKH1RUGLFSRZHUPDUNHW7RZDUGVWKHLPSDFWVRQHPLVVLRQV
DUHFORVHWR]HUR$WWKLVWLPHWKH1RUZHJLDQJDVSRZHUVXEVWLWXWHVJDVSRZHUZLWKFRPSDUDEOHIXHO
FRQYHUVLRQHIILFLHQF\LQRWKHU1RUGLFFRXQWULHV)LQDOO\LWLVZRUWKQRWLQJWKDWZHRQO\FRQVLGHU
HPLVVLRQVIURPSRZHUSURGXFWLRQ:HGRQRWLQFOXGHHPLVVLRQFKDQJHVDWWKHGHPDQGVLGH/RZHU
HOHFWULFLW\SULFHVPD\LQGXFHVRPHVXEVWLWXWLRQIURPIRVVLOIXHOVXVHGIRUKHDWLQJSXUSRVHVWRZDUGV
HOHFWULFLW\2QWKHRWKHUKDQGORZHUHOHFWULFLW\SULFHVPD\UHGXFHWKHSURILWDELOLW\RIFRPELQHGKHDW
DQGSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQDQGWKHUHE\LQGXFHVXEVWLWXWLRQWRZDUGVIRVVLOIXHOVERWKDWWKHVXSSO\DQG
GHPDQGVLGHRIWKHPDUNHWIRUGLVWULFWKHDWLQJ+RZHYHULQFOXVLRQRIWKHVHIDFWRUVDQGPDUNHWVLVOHIW
IRUIXWXUHUHVHDUFK



5HIHUHQFHV
$PXQGVHQ(6DQG67MWWD  7UDGHDQG3ULFH9DULDWLRQLQDQ,QWHJUDWHG(XURSHDQ3RZHU
0DUNHW$SSOLHG(FRQRPLFVSS
%HUJPDQ/&'R\OH1+0YRQGHU)HKU3ROOLWDQG5HJLEHDXI  $(XURSHDQPDUNHWIRU
HOHFWULFLW\0RQLWRULQJ(XURSHDQ(OHFWULFLW\&HQWUHIRU(QHUJ\3ROLF\5HVHDUFK &(35 
%URRNH$'.HQGULNVDQG$0HHUDXV  *$06$8VHUV*XLGH5HOHDVH7KH6FLHQWLILF
3UHVV
%\H7DQG7$-RKQVHQ  3URVSHFWVIRUD&RPPRQ'HUHJXODWHG1RUGLF(OHFWULFLW\0DUNHW
'LVFXVVLRQ3DSHUQR6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\
(OOHUPDQ$'  7KH&RPSHWLWLRQ%HWZHHQ&RDODQG1DWXUDO*DV7KH,PSRUWDQFHRI6XQN
&RVWV5HVRXUFHV3ROLF\9RO1RVSS
(OVDP  6DPPHQIDWWHQGHV\QVSXQNWHUYHGUUHQGHKDQGOLQJVSODQHQL(QHUJL(OVDP
3ODQOJQLQJVDIGHOLQJHQ
+ROP\(%6WUPDQG7cYLWVODQG  (PSLULFDOFKDUDFWHULVWLFVRIDVWDWLFYHUVLRQRIWKH
06*PRGHO'RFXPHQWV6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\
-RKQVHQ7$  0RGHOOLQJWKH1RUZHJLDQDQG1RUGLFHOHFWULFLW\PDUNHW3K'GLVVHUWDWLRQQR
'HSDUWPHQWRI(FRQRPLFV8QLYHUVLW\RI2VOR
.DKQ(&0DUQD\DQG'%HUPDQ  (YDOXDWLQJ'LVSDWFKDELOLW\)HDWXUHVLQ&RPSHWLWLYH
%LGGLQJ,(((7UDQVDFWLRQVRQ3RZHU6\VWHPV  SS
/DUVHQ+9  6LPXODFKURQ$VLPXODWLRQ0RGHOIRUD&RPELQHG+HDWDQG3RZHU3URGXFWLRQ
6\VWHP5LV1DWLRQDO/DERUDWRU\'HQPDUN
/LQGKROW/  .\RWRSURWRNROOHQSULVHQSn&2NYRWHURJNRQVHNYHQVHUIRUQRUVN
SHWUROHXPVVHNWRUNRQRPLVNHDQDO\VHU6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\ ,Q1RUZHJLDQ 
1HVEDNNHQ5DQG66WUP  3ULFH6HQVLWLYLW\RI5HVLGHQWLDO(QHUJ\&RQVXPSWLRQLQ1RUZD\
'LVFXVVLRQSDSHUQR6WDWLVWLFV1RUZD\
1RUGHO  .UDIWEDODQVI|U1RUGHOV\VWHPHWnU6OXWUDSSRUWIUnQ3URGXNWLRQVJUXSSHQWLOO
1RUGHOV6\VWHPNRPPLWWH-XQL1RUGHO,PDWUDQ9RLPD+HOVLQJIRUV)LQODQG
1XWHN  .OLPDWUDSSRUWHQ1XWHN56WRFNKROP6ZHGHQ
19(  .RVWQDGHUIRUNUDIWYHUNVSURVMHNWHUSU3XEOLNDVMRQQU1RUZHJLDQ
:DWHUDQG(QHUJ\$XWKRULWLHV
2OVHQ2-DQG-0XQNVJDDUG  &RJHQHUDWLRQDQG7D[DWLRQLQD/LEHUDOLVHG1RUGLF3RZHU
0DUNHW1RUGYlUPH1RUGLF'LVWULFW+HDWLQJ$VVRFLDWLRQ
9RJQLOG,+  (IIHNWXWYHNVOLQJPHGXWODQGHW3XEOLNDVMRQQU1RUZHJLDQ:DWHUDQG(QHUJ\
$XWKRULWLHV ,Q1RUZHJLDQ 


$SSHQGL[

*HQHUDWLRQFRVWV
9DULDEOHJHQHUDWLRQFRVWVLQWKHUPDOSRZHUSODQWVFRQVLVWRIIXHOFRVWVDQGRWKHUYDULDEOHFRVWV)XHO
SULFHVDUHDVVXPHGFRQVWDQW UHDOSULFHV GXULQJWKHVLPXODWLRQSHULRGVHHWDEOH$/LQGKROW 
DQDO\]HIRVVLOIXHOSULFHV2XUSULFHDVVXPSWLRQVFRUUHVSRQGWRDVLWXDWLRQEHWZHHQSHUIHFWFRPSHWLWLRQ
DQGSHUIHFWFDUWHOLQWKHSHWUROHXPPDUNHWV
7DEOH$)XHOSULFHVH[FOFOLPDWHWD[HVLQFORWKHUWD[HVUHN:K
'HQPDUN

)LQODQG

1RUZD\

6ZHGHQ

&RDO









2LO









*DVH[LVWSLSHO









*DV7UROOILHOG




















*DV+DOWHQILHOG
:RRG
3HDW





6RXUFHV 1RUGHO   %\HDQG-RKQVHQ   2OVHQDQG0XQNVJDDUG  RJ1XWHN


 
8QLWVN:K 0- 6PQDWXUDOJDV 6FXIW [WRH %WX
'HQPDUNLVORFDWHGFORVHUWRWKHZRUOGPDUNHWDQGKDVWKHORZHVWFRDOSULFH%LRIXHOV ZRRGDQGSHDW
DUHZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGZLWKLQVKRUWWUDQVSRUWGLVWDQFHVLQ)LQODQG1DWXUDOJDVGHOLYHULHVWKURXJKH[LVWLQJ
SLSHOLQHVKDYHORZHVWSULFHLQ1RUZD\ ORFDWHGFORVHWRWKH1RUWK6HD DQGLQ)LQODQG LPSRUWRI
5XVVLDQJDV :HDVVXPHDGGLWLRQDOJDVYROXPHVWREHDYDLODEOHIURPWKH1RUZHJLDQJDVILHOGV7UROO
DQGRU+DOWHQEDQNHQ*DVIURPWKHVHILHOGVLVFKHDSHVWLQ1RUZD\ZKLOHWUDQVSRUWPDUJLQVOHDGWR
VRPHZKDWKLJKHUSULFHVLQWKHRWKHUFRXQWULHV
2WKHUYDULDEOHFRVWVFRQVLVWRIPDWHULDOVDQGPDLQWHQDQFHDQGUHSDLUFRVWVWKDWDUHSURGXFWLRQ
GHSHQGHQW,QDGGLWLRQZHLQFOXGHVWDUW DQGVWRS FRVWV6XFKFRVWVDUHFRQQHFWHGWRVWDUWDQGVWRSRI
SRZHUVWDWLRQVWKDWRQO\UXQGXULQJVRPHSDUWRIWKHGD\6WDUWFRVWVPD\EHYLHZHGDVDIL[HGFRVW
+RZHYHUZHGLVWULEXWHWKLVFRVWRQWKHJHQHUDWHGYROXPHLQWKHSHULRGWKHSODQWLVUXQQLQJZKHQ
VWDUWHG7KXVWKHVWDUWFRVWVDUHPRGHVSHFLILF,IWKHSODQWUXQVLQEDVHORDGPRGHWKHUHLVQRVWDUWXS
FRVWV&RQVHTXHQWO\WKHILJXUHVLQWKHILUVWFROXPQRIWDEOH$GRQRWLQFOXGHDQ\VWDUWXSFRVWV



7DEOH$9DULDEOHFRVWVRWKHUWKDQIXHOFRVWVUHN:K
7HNQRORJL

%DVHORDG

0HGLXPORDG

+LJKORDG

3HDNORDG

(;7&2$/









&21'&2$/









(;7&&*7









&21'&&*7









66*$6









663($7









66:22'









*$6785%,1(

(;7LQGLFDWHVDFHQWUDOODUJHVFDOHSODQZLWKKHDWGHOLYHULHV66LQGLFDWHVDGHFHQWUDOVPDOOVFDOH
FRPELQHGKHDWDQGSRZHUSODQWZKLOH&21'LQGLFDWHVDFRQGHQVLQJSODQWSURGXFLQJHOHFWULFLW\RQO\
&&*7LVDFRPELQHGF\FOHJDVWXUELQHSRZHUSODQW
7KHHVWLPDWHGVWDUWFRVWVDUHXQFHUWDLQ:HEDVHRXUHVWLPDWHVRQ/DUVHQ  DQG(OVDP  
'HFHQWUDOSODQWVLVDVVXPHGWRKDYHORZHUVWDUWFRVWVWKDQODUJHVFDOHFHQWUDOSODQWV*DVWXUELQHVDUH
GHVLJQHGDVDSHDNORDGWHFKQRORJ\DQGVWDUWFRVWVDUHQHJOLJLEOHDVLVRWKHUYDULDEOHFRVWV
,QWKHPRGHOQHZJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLW\LVHVWDEOLVKHGLISRZHUSULFHVRQDYHUDJHRYHUD\HDUH[FHHG
ORQJUXQPDUJLQDOFRVWVIRUQHZFDSDFLW\/RQJUXQPDUJLQDOFRVWVLQFOXGHFDSLWDOFRVWVIXHOFRVWVDQG
RWKHUYDULDEOHFRVWV&DSLWDOFRVWVDUHWUDQVIRUPHGWRD\HDUO\FRVWDVVXPLQJDUHDOLQWHUHVWUDWHRI
SHUFHQWDQGDOLIHWLPHRI\HDUV7KHFDSLWDOFRVWSHUN:KGHSHQGVRQWKHSODQW
VXWLOL]DWLRQWLPH
GXULQJWKH\HDUVHHWDEOH$



7DEOH$)L[HGFRVWVDQGIXHOFRQYHUVLRQHIILFLHQF\IRUQHZWKHUPDOSRZHUWHFKQRORJLHV
&DSLWDOFRVW
7HFKQRORJ\ )XHO

&RXQWU\

$QQXDOL]HG


K
SHU\HDU

1NU0:
(;7&2$/

&RDO

&RQYHIILFLHQFLHV
K
SHU\HDU

7RWDO

(OHFWULFLW\





UHN:K

')6







$OO







')6







$OO









&21'&&*7 1JDV











66*$6

1JDV

$OO











663($7

3HDW

)6











66:22'

:RRG

$OO











&21'&2$/ &RDO
(;7&&*7

1JDV

*$6785%

2LO






)XHOHIILFLHQF\RUKHDWUDWH0HDVXUHGDVKRZPDQ\SHUFHQWRIWKHHQHUJ\LQSXWWKDWLVFRQYHUWHGWR
VDOHDEOHHQHUJ\LHHOHFWULFLW\RUHOHFWULFLW\DQGKHDWHGZDWHU LQGXVWULDORUGLVWULFWKHDWLQJSXUSRVHV 
$VWDEOH$LQGLFDWHVQRWDOOWHFKQRORJLHVDUHDYDLODEOHLQDOOFRXQWULHV'HQPDUN)LQODQGDQG
6ZHGHQKDYHDOUHDG\QHWZRUNVIRUGLVWULEXWLRQRIKHDWHGZDWHU GLVWULFWKHDWLQJ ZKLOHVXFKV\VWHPV
DUHYHU\OLPLWHGLQ1RUZD\:HDVVXPHH[SORUDWLRQDQGRUWUDQVSRUWDWLRQFRVWVWRSUHYHQWSHDWIXHOHG
SRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLQ1RUZD\DQG'HQPDUN7KHZDWHUIDOOVDYDLODEOHIRUGHYHORSPHQWDUHORFDWHGLQ
1RUZD\
7KHFRVWHVWLPDWHVUHSUHVHQWDFRPSOHWHQHZSRZHUSODQW)RUVRPHSRZHUSODQWVUHSODFHPHQWRIDQ
H[LVWLQJROGSODQWPD\EHWDKFDVH:LWKLQVXFKSURMHFWVFRVWVPD\EHORZHULIVRPHRIWKHJURXQG
LQYHVWPHQWVDUHDOUHDG\XQGHUWDNHQ
1HZK\GURSRZHUSURMHFWVDUHDYDLODEOHLQ1RUZD\RQO\:HEDVHWKHFRVWHVWLPDWHVRQWKHVRFDOOHG
0DVWHU3ODQIRU1HZ+\GURSRZHUVHH19(  

&RPELQHGKHDWDQGSRZHU
7DEOH$VKRZVRXUDVVXPSWLRQVDERXWKHDWSULFHVLQWKH1RUGLFFRXQWULHV
7DEOH$$VVXPHGPDUNHWSULFHVRIKHDWHGZDWHUUHN:K
%DVHEORFN

0HGLXPEORFN

+LJKEORFN

3HDNEORFN

:LQWHU









6XPPHU











7KHHVWLPDWHGKHDWSULFHIRUWKHKLJKDQGSHDNEORFNVLQWKHZLQWHUVHDVRQVLVUHN:K7KLVLVD
ORZHQGHVWLPDWHFRQVLGHUDEO\ORZHUWKDQWKHKHDWSULFHXVHGLQ2OVHQDQG0XQNVJDDUGRSFLW,QWKH
VXPPHUVHDVRQDQGLQWKHORZHUORDGEORFNVLQWKHZLQWHUVHDVRQVWKHSULFHVDUHORZHUGXHWRORZHU
KHDWGHPDQG
7KHSRWHQWLDOIRUFRJHQHUDWLRQRIKHDWDQGSRZHUYDULHV:KLOHFRJHQHUDWLRQFRYHUVSHUFHQWRI
WKHGLVWULFWKHDWLQJSURGXFWLRQLQ'HQPDUNDQG)LQODQGFRJHQHUDWHGKHDWDFFRXQWVIRURQO\SHUFHQW
LQ6ZHGHQVHH2OVHQDQG0XQNVJDDUGRSFLW7KHIUDFWLRQRIFRJHQHUDWHGSRZHUGLIIHUVDOVRKLJKO\
DFURVVWKHFRXQWULHV7KH6ZHGLVKGLVWULFWKHDWLQJV\VWHPVDUHWRGD\PDLQO\VXSSOLHGE\SXUHKHDW
SODQWV7KXVWKHUHLVDODUJHSRWHQWLDOIRUFRJHQHUDWLRQ7KHSRWHQWLDOVIRUFRJHQHUDWLQJSRZHUFDSDFLW\
DUHVKRZQLQWDEOH$
7DEOH$ 8SSHUOLPLWIRUWKHFDSDFLW\RIFRJHQHUDWLRQRIHOHFWULFLW\DQGKHDWLQWKH\HDU
0:HOHFWULFLW\
'HQPDUN

)LQODQG

/DUJHVFDOH





6PDOOVFDOH





1RUZD\

6ZHGHQ






1RUPDOL]HGWRFRDOILUHGFRJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLW\&RJHQHUDWLRQEDVHGRQJDVKDVDODUJHU0:HO
SRWHQWLDO

)XHOVXSSO\
([LVWLQJDQGQHZQDWXUDOJDVSLSHOLQHVDQGUHVWULFWLRQVRQQDWLRQDOUHVRXUFHH[WUDFWLRQOLPLWWKHVXSSO\
RIIXHOVIRUXVHLQFRQYHQWLRQDOWKHUPDOSRZHUSODQWVVHHWDEOH$
7DEOH$ 5HVWULFWLRQVRQIXHOVXSSO\IRUWKHUPDOSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQ JURVVILJXUHV EHIRUHFRQ
YHUVLRQORVVHV 7:K
([LVWLQJJDVSLSHO

'HQPDUN

)LQODQG

1RUZD\

6ZHGHQ









7UROOJDV

7RWDOIRUDOOIRXUFRXQWULHV

+DOWHQJDV
:RRG

7RWDOIRU)LQ6ZHDQG1RU


3HDW




6RXUFH%\HDQG-RKQVHQ  








'HSUHFLDWLRQRIH[LVWLQJJHQHUDWLRQFDSDFLW\
:LQGDQGK\GURSRZHUKDVORQJOLIHWLPHVDQGDUHQRWGHSUHFLDWHGGXULQJRXUVLPXODWLRQSHULRG
6ZHGLVKQXFOHDUSRZHULVUHGXFHGDFFRUGLQJWRSROLWLFDOGHFLVLRQVDQGDQQXDOFDSDFLW\LV7:K
IURP2OGSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQHTXLSPHQWLVJUDGXDOO\GHSUHFLDWHGDQGQHZLQYHVWPHQWVDUH
DOORZHGIURP,QDYHUDJHH[LVWLQJWKHUPDOFDSDFLW\KDVDUHVLGXDOOLIHWLPHRIDERXW\HDUVLQ
2QWKLVEDVLVDSHUFHQWDQQXDOGHSUHFLDWLRQPD\VRXQGUHDVRQDEOH+RZHYHUZHKDYHFKRVHQ
WRGHSUHFLDWHDWDVORZHUUDWH,QWHUQDWLRQDOH[SHULHQFHVXJJHVWVWKDWWKHUPDOSRZHUSODQWVRIWHQODVWIRU
DVLJQLILFDQWO\ORQJHUWLPHVHH(OOHUPDQ  7KHUIRUHZHVWDUWGHSUHFLDWLRQLQDWDQ
DQQXDOUDWHRISHUFHQW
,Q1RUZD\ZHOLPLWK\GURSRZHUGHYHORSPHQWVXQWLOWR7:K%DVHGRQLQIRUPDWLRQDYDLODEOH
LQ-DQXDU\)HEUXDU\1RUZHJLDQK\GURSRZHUJHQHUDWLRQLVDVVXPHGWREH7:KLQ
+RZHYHUZKHQWKLVLVZULWWHQLWLVFOHDUWKDWZDWHULQIORZDQGVQRZIDOOVGXULQJZLQWHUKDVEHHQ
PXFKULFKHUWKDQLQLWLDOO\DVVXPHG7KHILJXUHVUHSRUWHGIRUVKRXOGEHYLHZHGLQWKLVOLJKW

7UDQVPLVVLRQFRVWV
7DEOH$OLVWVWKHFRVWVRIHOHFWULFWUDQVPLVVLRQDPRQJWKH1RUGLFFRXQWULHV
7DEOH$ 7UDQVPLVVLRQFRVWVDQGDQQXDOL]HGLQYHVWPHQWFRVWVIRUQHZFRQQHFWLRQVUHN:K
DQG1NU0:
2SHUDWLQJFRVW

$QQXDOL]HGLQYHVWPHQWFRVW

UHN:K

1NU0:

'HQPDUN1RUZD\





'HQPDUN6ZHGHQ





)LQODQG1RUZD\
)LQODQG6ZHGHQ







1RUZD\6ZHGHQ





6RXUFH1RUGHO  DQG9RJQLOG  



You might also like