BLOOMBERG POLITICS/DES MOINES REGISTER IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY
401 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
402 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats

Study #2128
October 16-19, 2015
2,771 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Poll Questions
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Ask only of likely Democratic caucusgoers; Republican caucusgoers, skip to Republican candidate
favorability.
Now, I’m going to mention some prominent Democrats, including [Before Aug-15: people talked about as possible]
candidates for the Democratic nomination for president. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable,
mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer,
just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list, but Obama always goes first.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Fav

Unf

7*

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

Barack Obama, president of the United
States

Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

90

51

39

4

4

2

88
91
89
86

9
7
9
13

43
44
49
49

45
47
40
37

5
5
6
5

4
2
3
8

2
2
2
1

Joe Biden, vice president of the United
States

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

85

10

36

49

7

3

5

14
20
20
34

29
22
25
15

51
54
53
45

8
14
14
19

6
6
6
15

7
4
2
6

Lincoln Chafee, former governor of
Rhode Island

Oct-15
Aug-15

14

30*

2

12

20

11

56

2

7

6

6

80

Hillary Clinton, former secretary of state

Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

85

14

39

46

8

6

2

77
88
86*
84
76

19
10
12*
15
19

27
30
39
46
43

50
58
46
38
33

10
6
7
7
8

9
4
6
8
11

4
2
2
1
5

Oct-15

10

12

2

8

6

6

78

8

35

14

4

39

8
4
2
2

25
17
11
11

5
5
6
7

3
3
3
2

60
72
78
78

Larry Lessig, a Harvard law professor

79*
76
78
60
9

11*

Martin O’Malley, former governor of
Maryland

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

43

Bernie Sanders, U.S. senator from
Vermont

Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

82

10*

42

40

6

3

8

73
57
47
37
29

8
4
12
12
13

39
27
23
17
10

34
30
24
20
19

4
3
8
8
8

4
1
4
4
5

19
39
41
51
58

Jim Webb, former U.S. senator from
Virginia

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

22

31

3

19

21

10

47

12
9*
11
12

4
3
3
1

16
19
18
15

10
7
8
8

2
3
3
4

68
69
68
72

33
20*
13
13

19*
22
21
16

17

*

7*
8
9
9

*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best
estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first
choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Joe Biden
Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton
Larry Lessig
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Jim Webb
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure
No first choice

Q.4a
First Choice

Q.4b
Second Choice

Combined

12
42
2
37
1

23
1
31
1
6
23
1

35
1
73
1
8
60
2

3
3

3
7
6

First choice with
Biden reallocated

n/a
1
48
2
41
1
3
4

Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first
choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Joe Biden

Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton

Larry Lessig
Martin O’Malley

Bernie Sanders

Jim Webb

“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)

Not sure

No first choice

Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

First

Second

Combined

12

23

35

14
n/a
8
9

24
n/a
31
26

38
n/a
39
35

-

1

1

1
-

2

1
2

42

31

73

37
50
57
56

23
18
15
15

60
68
72
71

2

1
6

1
8

3
2
2
1

8
10
3
3

11
12
5
4

37

23

60

30
24
16
5

20
20
13
6

50
44
29
11

1

1

2

2
n/a
2
3

1
n/a
5
6

3
n/a
7
9

3

3

6
7
6
4

3
8
6
3

3

7

8
16
8
6

6
19
13
8

Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

6
13
23
14
10

Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first
choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Biden removed
and second
choice
reallocated

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Lincoln Chafee
Hillary Clinton

Larry Lessig
Martin O’Malley

Bernie Sanders

Jim Webb

“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)

Not sure

Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

1
1
-

48
43
50
62
63

2
5
2
3
1

41
35
24
18
5

1
2
n/a
3
3

3
6
7
6
5

4
8
16
8
7

In Jan-15, Elizabeth Warren received 16% with Biden reallocated.

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made
up, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said
“No first choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
All Dem CGs Clinton
n=402
n=176
±4.9% pts
±7.4% pts

42
58
-

46
54
-

Sanders
n=138
±8.4% pts

46
53
1

Mind is made up
Could still be persuaded
Not sure

(Ask only for each candidate NOT answered in first or second choice questions.) I’m going to mention
the Democrats who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever
support the person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names.
Use same rotation as horserace question. If selected as first or second choice, code “1st or 2nd choice”
and do not ask.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Ever

Never

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

54

10

2

34

46
37

12
15

4
10

38
39

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

25

54

20

1

31
n/a

27
n/a

40
n/a

1
n/a

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

18

8

-

73

26
16

13
9

1
3

60
72

Larry Lessig

Oct-15

19

48

32

1

Martin O’Malley

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

50

28

14

8

38
34

21
13

30
48

11
6

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

27

10

4

59

30
23

12
18

8
30

50
29

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

32

48

18

2

36
32

26
13

34
47

3
7

Joe Biden

Lincoln Chafee

Hillary Clinton

Bernie Sanders

Jim Webb

Not sure

1st or 2nd
choice

For each of the following potential candidate concerns, please tell me if this is something that makes you less
supportive of the person or does not bother you. (Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Hillary Clinton has not been forthcoming about her home email
server
Joe Biden is taking a long time to decide if he is going to run for
president
Bernie Sanders describes himself as a democratic socialist
Hillary Clinton has delayed or flip-flopped on key decisions
Bernie Sanders has voted against waiting periods and background
checks for gun buyers
Democratic caucusgoers: Skip to “bigger risk” question.

Less
supportive

Does not
bother

Not
Sure

18

81

2

27
17
34

72
81
64

1
2
2

60

39

1

(Ask only of likely Republican caucusgoers.)
Now, I’m going to mention some candidates for the Republican nomination for president. For each, please tell me
if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know
enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.)
Fav

Unf

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

50

43

14

36

25

18

7

50
45
43
28

10
11
17
9

36
32
29
41

31
27
25
19

19
18
18
9

5
13
11
22

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

84

12

53

31

7

5

4

79
56
50
41

8
15
12
8

46
24
28
24

33
32
22
17

6
10
9
4

2
5
3
4

13
29
38
51

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

39*

49

6

32

28

21

12

29
28*
36
39

59
58
54
45

5
6
7
8

24
21
29
31

36
39
32
29

23
19
22
16

12
14
10
16

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

61

26

28

33

15

11

13

61
59
58
52

24
20
21
18

29
20
22
20

32
39
36
32

17
13
14
11

7
7
7
7

15
21
21
30

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

66

22

26

40

13

9

12

64
41*

15
19*

31
13

33
27

8
12

7
8

21
40

Jan-15

15

19

4

11

13

6

66

Oct-15
Aug-15

4

30

1

3

18

12

67

1

3

12

9

75

Lindsey Graham, U.S. senator from
South Carolina

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

18

59*
38

3

14

27

26

29

15
22*

2
4

13
19

35
23

25
15

26
40

Mike Huckabee, former governor of
Arkansas

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

61

33

30*
30
28
30

18

43

22

11

6

61
61
66
59

17
21
28
23

44
40
38
36

21
21
21
23

10
9
7
7

9
9
6
11

Bobby Jindal, governor of Louisiana

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

57

27

19

37

16

11

17

18
15
10
12

42
28
29
29

14
15
15
11

5
4
5
3

21
38
41
45

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

31*

33*

8

22

22

12

36

33
25
22
17

22
16*
14
7

10
7
7
3

22
18
15
14

17
11
10
5

5
4
4
2

45
59
64
76

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

7*

48

1

7

27

21

44

1

9
9

26
22

15
13

51
55

Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida

Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon
Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from
Maryland
Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey

Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas

Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard
Carly Fiorina, former CEO of HewlettPackard and candidate for the U.S. Senate
in California
Jim Gilmore, former governor of Virginia

John Kasich, governor of Ohio

George Pataki, former governor of New
York

45*
43
46
50

22*

4

53

61*
43
39
41

9
10

*

18*
19
20
14

40*
35

Fav

Unf

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

43*

48*

12

30

29

18

10

39
55
64
59

49
34
25
24

11
16
25
21

29
39
39
38

31
24
18
18

18
10
7
6

12
11
11
17

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

70*

20

26

43

12

8

10

67
60
57
54

20
17
20
16

24
20
16
14

43
40
41
40

15
12
15
12

5
5
5
4

13
23
23
30

Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from
Pennsylvania

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

51

34*

12

39

21

14

15

11
18
16
14

38
38
41
38

26
19
22
20

10
9
8
10

15
16
13
18

Donald Trump, businessman and
television personality

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

59

37

27

32

19

18

5

35
63*
68

26
7
4

34
20
22

16
31
36

19
33
32

4
10
6

Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky

Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida

48
56
57
52

*

*

61*
27
26

37*
28
30
30

*We are most confident that the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the
best estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second
choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Which TWO or THREE of these candidates, if any, would you like to see drop out of the race? (Multiple
responses accepted, so total may exceed 100%.)

Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure
No first choice

First

Second

Combined

Drop Out

5
28
1
10
4
3
2
2
5
9
2
19

5
19
2
9
13
3
8
2
4
11
1
9

10
47
3
19
17
6
10
4
9
20
3
28

22
3
19
7
7
15
22
11
7
12
21
14
3
10
25

3
7

2
2
11

3
13

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second
choice question as “No first choice” and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Jeb Bush

Ben Carson

Chris Christie

Ted Cruz

Carly Fiorina

Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee

Bobby Jindal

John Kasich

George Pataki
Rand Paul

Marco Rubio

Rick Santorum

First
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

Second

Combined

5

5

10

6
9
8

4
7
7

10
16
15

28

19

47

18
10
9

14
5
10

32
15
19

1

2

3

2
4
4

1
4
3

3
8
7

10

9

19

8
5
5

10
8
6

18
13
11

4

13

17

5
2
1

11
3
1

16
5
2

-

-

-

1

1

2*

3

3

6

4
9
10

4
8
7

8
17*
17

2

8

10

2
1
2

4
4
2

6
5
4

2

2

4

2
2
1

3
1
1

5
3
2

-

-

-

-

1

1

5

4

9

4
10
14

3
5
9

7
15
23

9

11

20

6
6
3

8
12
8

14
18
11

2

1

3

1
6
4

2
6
6

3
12
10

First

Donald Trump

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure

No first choice

Second

Combined

19

9

28

23
4
1

9
2
1

32
6
2

3

2

5
4
2

1
2
1

7

2

5
7
5
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

4
5
6

11
10
11
7

*“Combined” does not match below for certain candidates due to rounding.
When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is
made up, or could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those
who said “No first choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
All Rep CGs
n=401
±4.9% pts

Carson
supporters
n=109
±9.4% pts

Trump
supporters
n=80
±11.0% pts

22
78
1

15
83
1

32
67
1

Mind is made up
Could still be persuaded
Not sure

I’m going to mention the candidates who are not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think
you could ever support the person for president or would never support the person for president. (Read
appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace questions. If selected as first or second choice, code “1st
or 2nd choice” and do not ask.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

A.

B.

C.

D.

E.

F.
G.

H.

I.

J.

K.

L.

M.

N.

O.

Jeb Bush

Ben Carson

Chris Christie

Ted Cruz

Carly Fiorina

Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham

Mike Huckabee

Bobby Jindal

John Kasich

George Pataki

Rand Paul

Marco Rubio

Rick Santorum

Donald Trump

Not sure

1st or 2nd
choice

Ever

Never

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

48

40

2

10

50
38

39
35

2
10

9
16

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

41

10

3

47

50
47

12
18

6
20

32
15

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

45

48

4

3

44
34

48
45

5
13

3
8

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

49

27

5

19

54
49

24
21

4
18

18
13

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

54

23

6

17

55
38

20
27

9
30

16
5

Oct-15
Aug-15

17

59

24

-

20

51

28

-

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

25

63

11

1

30
29

57
43

13
25

3

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

60

31

3

6

60
51

28
24

4
9

8
16

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

55

29

7

10

65
45

20
25

10
25

6
5

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

36

45

14

4

41
29

40
28

14
40

5
3

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

19

63

18

-

26
20

57
41

17
38

1

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

43

45

4

9

43
45

43
30

6
10

8
15

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

55

20

5

20

60
49

19
18

6
15

15
18

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

53

38

5

4

56
51

35
26

6
11

3
12

Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15

35

34

3

27

36
28

29
58

3
8

32
6

On the basis of religion alone, do you think it would be acceptable or unacceptable to have a Muslim president of
the United States?
Rep CGs

25
69
7

Acceptable
Unacceptable
Not sure

Do you think Donald Trump is or is not a committed Christian?
Rep CGs

32
28
40

Is a committed Christian
Is not a committed Christian
Not sure

Regardless of who you’re supporting for president, do you think Jeb Bush’s family ties would be a good thing if
he’s elected since he knows the job and what it entails or a bad thing because he will forever be in the shadow of
his father and brother?
Rep CGs

42
47
12

Good thing
Bad thing
Not sure

For each of the following potential candidate concerns, please tell me if this is something that makes you less
supportive of the candidate or does not bother you. (Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Marco Rubio is currently 44 years old; if elected, he would be
the third youngest president
Donald Trump insults other Republican candidates
Ted Cruz has led the charge for government shutdowns
Carly Fiorina was fired as CEO at Hewlett-Packard with a 21
million dollar severance package after the company lost stock
value
Jeb Bush advocates for a path to legal residence for immigrants
in this country illegally

Less
supportive

Does not
bother

Not
sure

5
46
31

93
54
67

2
1
2

31

65

4

63

34

3

I’m going to mention some things people have said about Ben Carson. Regardless of whether you support him
for president, please tell me for each if this is something that you find very attractive about him, mostly
attractive, mostly unattractive, or very unattractive. (Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

He is not a career politician
He has no experience in foreign policy
He was highly successful as a neurosurgeon
He has said the Affordable Care Act, also
known as Obamacare, is the worst thing
since slavery
He has an inspirational personal story
He has raised questions about whether a
Muslim should ever be president of the
United States
He has said he would be guided by his faith
in God
He has said that Hitler might not have been
as successful if the people had been armed
He approaches issues with common sense
He has conducted research on tissue from
aborted fetuses

Very
Attractive

Mostly
Attractive

Mostly
Unattractive

Very
Unattractive

Not
Sure

48
13
50

37
29
38

9
38
4

2
11
2

4
9
6

57
54

24
31

10
4

6
3

2
7

43

30

14

6

6

62

27

4

3

4

51
70

26
26

10
1

5
2

8
2

10

21

30

18

21

(Ask all Republicans and Democrats.)
Which do you think is the bigger risk for the future of the country?
REP CG

Dem CG

31

43

60

41

9

16

To elect a president who has not held office so does not know the processes and
procedures of governing
To elect the same sort of person who has served as president for many decades who will
likely continue to do things the way they have been done with the same effect
Not sure

Based just on what you happen to know at this point, do you think the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade
agreement among the United States and 11 Pacific Rim nations will be good or bad for Iowa?
REP CG

27
30
42

Dem CG

39
27
34

Good for Iowa
Bad for Iowa
Not sure

Do you think the congressional investigations into Benghazi are or are not worth the time and money?
REP CG

75
19
6

Dem CG

14
79
6

Worth the time and money
Not worth the time and money
Not sure

Compared to:
Study #2125
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats
Study #2122
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points

August 23-26, 2015
2,975 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list
June 19-22, 2015
1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district
to conform to active Democratic and no-party voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2118
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.7 percentage points for Democrats

May 25-29, 2015
4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2113
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for each party

January 26-29, 2015
3,813 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2104
425 Republican likely caucusgoers
426 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.8 percentage points for each party

October 1-7, 2014
3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform
to active voters in Iowa voter registration list

Methodology
Oct 23 (Bloomberg) — The Iowa Poll, conducted October 16-19 for Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register
by Selzer & Co. of Des Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 401 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely
or probably will attend the 2016 Republican caucuses and 402 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will
attend the 2016 Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 2,771 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsamples of 402 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 401 likely Republican caucus attendees
each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. This means that if this survey were
repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the
percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.9 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of
respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to Bloomberg Politics and The Des Moines Register is prohibited.