I.

Climate Change as a Problem

Climate has been changing at an increasingly chaotic manner. The climate can be
viewed as an exceptionally complex system: each variable used in modelling it can
be parsed out into ever smaller variables. The variables themselves might be seen
to overlap with each other.
There is consistent change with some variables.
Despite this complexity, a summary of the progress of climate change can be
obtained by carefully constructed models combined with extensive observation of
the physical environment.
The largest component of the climate system can be described as the atmospheric
component.
This involves statistical measures of temperature, wind and
precipitation over a period of time. The range of time can be one day to millions of
years depending on the research question. The main agents of change in the
climate can be described as forcings. There are external forcings such as solar
radiation and volcanic eruptions, as well as internal forcings such as atmospheric
fluctuations.
Dues to the complexity and broad range of variables involved in this process, there
may be substantial coupling effects between two or more of the key terms of
interest. In fact, according to the data, there appears to be a connection between
methane and CO2, such that if the effect of CO2 increases, the intensity of the effect
of methane increases more than usual. The same effects can be seen in the other
key components of the model. As such, this research will be divided into analyses
of the coupling between various elements of the system.
II. Elements of Climate Change
It is commonly considered that there are four main components to climate change,
which are methane, carbon dioxide, water vapor and albedo. The following sections
describe the manner in which these components add to climate change.
a. Methane
Methane is the second most common greenhouse gas: in the US it accounted for 9%
of greenhouse gas emissions in the US in 2012 (Overview). Some of the most
common sources of methane related to human activities is the emission of the gas
from livestock and leakage from natural gas systems. Even though the lifetime
methane has in the atmosphere is shorter than that of CO2, methane is much more
efficient in terms of trapping solar radiation. As such, the effect of methane on
climate change over a 100 year period is estimated to be 20 times that of CO 2
(Overview).
b. CO2
CO2 is the primary gas that is responsible for human moderated climate change in
the US. CO2 accounted for about 82% of emissions from human activities (Hansen).
Sources include electricity, transportation (and the attendant use of fossil fuels),
and industry (industrial processes that use fossil fuels). CO 2 is a key part of the
natural balance of ecological systems on the planet; in general the exchange of CO 2
balances between the ocean, the atmosphere and life forms. This balance was

upset by the use of fossil fuels during the Industrial revolution, and has accelerated
with increasing use of fossil fuels globally.
c. Water Vapor
Water vapor is not often thought of as a greenhouse gas in the same manner as CO 2
and methane. However, it contributes in a significant manner to climate change.
Research by institutions (including NASA) have established that the heat-trapping
effect of water vapor on climate change is an extremely important factor (Hansen).
There is a feedback loop in which increasing temperatures lead to increasing water
vapor, which subsequently leads to another increase in water vapor (Hansen).
d. Albedo
About 30% of the sunlight that reaches the upper atmosphere is reflected back into
space in the form of albedo (Overview). Albedo is the reflection of light from the
earth into space, and is a form of energy transfer (and heat transfer). There has
been a decrease in albedo due to the shrinking of the polar ice caps: snow has the
greatest level of albedo, and snow has been transforming into water (which has a
much lower reflective capacity).
III. Research question
This primary research question in this case is: what are the mechanics of the earths
internal thermostat? Closely connected to this question is to investigate the
following: when one aspect of the climate is out of control, what is the impact on the
other elements of the earths climate? The carbon cycle forms the core of the
Earths thermostat. The thermostat works over hundreds of thousands of years,
integrating various forms of energy into feedbacks that balance the temperature.
This balancing effect can cause the earth to swing between ice ages and interglacial
periods on a grand scale.
IV. Research Model
There are many different ways in which this research question can be analyzed, and
there are many models that have been used in this context. These models have
done a tremendous amount of work establishing the connection between the
aforementioned elements and climate changes. In terms of the statistical and
mathematical aspects of the models, they did not integrate all elements that could
be integrates. For example, a longitudinal model can integrated the information
from the Vostok data better than a simple multivariate regression. In addition, there
are specific techniques that are needed in order to integrate the use of differential
equations into a longitudinal models.
a. Longitudinal Model
There are many different types of models that can be used for analyzing data of the
type seen here. Most models used are of the linear sort, where one or more
variables is integrated into a linear equation and fit to data (Dubin). In general,
some method of finding the line of best fit is found, such as ordinary least squares.
Standard linear:

yi = + xii + i (i)
yi = + xii + xii + + xnn + i (ii)
where y0 = response
= the intercept
x = the input for the random variable
(or Z) = the coefficient for the random variable (the response)
= the error term
In the model above we can see that y i is the response time, is the intercept
(baseline), xi is an observation i, i is the correlation for xi and is the error term.
This model can be extended to include more than one variable, as seen in (ii).
These models work well for simpler datasets, but in the Vostok dataset there is an
important time factor. In fact, the data exhibit several key variables, all of which are
observed over a long period of time (longitudinal data). In order to make best use
of all of the data, and not just a summary of it. It will be important to use models
that are designed for longitudinal data. The model that will be used will be a linear
mixed effects model, which will allow testing for population effects and individual
subject correlations.
The form of the model is the following:

yi = + i,0 + iYi, t - 1 + IZi, t - 1 + + nNi, t - 1 + i, t (ii)

where y0 = response
= the intercept
x = the input for the random variable
(or Z) = the coefficient for the random variable (the response)
= the error term
To better understand this, note that y0 is a vector, the intercept is a vector, and the
B and E terms are all matrices. There is a distinct form of mathematics that goes
along with this concept which integrate ideas from statistics and multivariable
calculus. Note that in this form of regression, the sum of squared distances
between points of interest are used. This can be combined with other types of
regression analysis to better understand the dynamics of the model.

Notes on Multivariate Mathematics Intrinsic to this Model:

Note that it is very difficult to explain the movement of physical phenomenon using
only one variable. This is especially true of climate science, in which we are dealing
with very complicated phenomena. In this case we must keep in mind that the
subject of analysis is a function of two or more variables. The notation reflects this.
In the case of two independent variables, the notation z = f(x, y) might be used,
with f referring to function, z the independent variable and x and y refer to
dependent variables. Supposed we are looking at the following function:

Note that there is more than one variable, and recall that it is important to look at
measures such as the slope in this case. Also note that despite the fact that there is
more than one variable, the slope still means the same thing, however, in this case
there are two slopes. This can be extended depending on how many variables there
are. Also, as opposed to the two dimensional form given by a single variable, more
than one variable will yield a three dimensional shape. The slope would be seen as
the change in the z variable, which is also the change in the height of the shape in
response to a movement or a change in the variable x, holding y constant.
More formally, we can define this as the partial derivative of z with respect to x.
This can be seen as the change in z for a given x, holding y constant. An example
of the notation in this case is:

It is critical in this case to take partial derivatives. The partial derivative is

essentially obtaining a different formula for each of the slopes associated with
changes in one of the independent variables, going one at a time. There are basic
rules behind partial differentiation that are important in this case. The rules of
partial differentiation have the same structure as those of single-variable
differentiation. The main difference is the nuance in treatment of extra variables.
Not again that the slope was seen as a change in z for a given change in one of the
variables (x or y) holding one or more of the variables constant. Take for example
the following equation:

If we are looking at the partial derivative with respect to x, then y is treated the
same way as a constant.

Once all of their variables are held static, the rules of partial derivatives that are
used for addressing coefficients, such as simple powers of variables, constants, and
sums/differences of functions, are actually the same. They are also used to
determine the function of the slope for each independent variable. Note the
following:

Then

In the above equation, we differentiate with respect to x, holding y constant. Since

there we no y variables present in the first term, differentiation resembles the
univariate process. In the last term there were no xs, so the derivative is zero, since
y is treated a constant.
To fully understand the concept of more than one slope in a function, we should
evaluate two partial derivatives at a point in the function, choosing x = 1 and y = 2:

This is consistent with previous operations, and it should be noted that the slope is
interpreted a bit differently than in the univariate case. We note that where x = 1
and y = 2, a function z becomes 3. In our three dimensional shape, we can look at
the function z in terms of two different directions. The change in z with respect to x
is 10, or the slope in a parallel direction to the x-axis is 10. If we turn 90 degrees,
the slope in a direction perpendicular to this other slope is 6, making it less steep.
Also, since each slope depends on change in one variable, the position (or fixed
value) of the other variable doesnt matter. This is because x and y are needed to
calculate the numerical values of the slope.
Looking at rules of derivatives such as the product and quotient rules, we see that
they have similar structure to the univariate case. In short, we hold all variables
constant but for the one that is changing in order to ascertain the slope of the
overall function with respect to that variable. Note the form of the product rule in
the multivariate case:

The product rule can then be used to determine the partial derivatives of the
following:

Note that the form of the quotient rule also changes in response to the addition of
variables:

The new quotient rule can be used to take partial derivatives of the following:

It is also important to note additional rules of partial differentiation. There are two
specialized rules that can apply to the multivariate case. One is the generalized
power function rule, which features adjusted notation.

Now the rule for taking the derivative is:

If we use this power rule on an expression in the previous form we obtain the
following:

The chain rule notation can be adjusted for use in multivariate cases as well.

Subsequently the partial derivatives of z with respect to two independent variables

are:

Through these expressions it can be seen that the multivariate mathematics that is
the foundation of multivariate regression analysis is more complex but logically
robust.
b. Modeling Change: Differential Equations
A set of adjusted differential equations were derived in order to model the system in
terms of a common factor of all variables of interest. This states each variable in
terms of its kinetic energy, allowing each term to be related to each other term in a
logically rigorous fashion. The equations are based on the model of a heartbeat,
and are as follows (Boyce):

Theses equations were then integrated into a linear mixed effects model (LME) that
could be used to fit to the Vostok ice core data. The linear mixed effects model
takes into account population level effects (large scale effects) as well as intragroup
and intergroup effects (Dubin). As such, it make better use of the available data
and yields comparatively more robust statistical power.
c. Integrating Longitudinal Models with Differential Equations
In order to properly model natural processes (including meteorological, biological,
and ecological processes) longitudinal data modeling is necessary (Dubin). This is
because longitudinal modeling allows for the description of both the overall trend
and the variation for natural processes. Longitudinal modeling more properly
integrates overall population effects with intragroup variation, thus making better
use of available data (Dubin). Special adjustments must be made for the use of
longitudinal models with dynamic effects, such as the treatment of longitudinal
pathways are realizations of a smooth stochastic process (Dubin). The following is
part of the generic form of the model that was implemented in context of the Vostok
ice core data:

Note the integration of dynamical effects into the longitudinal model. A model
adapted on this general form was run using SPSS V 22.0. The model fit and
statistics were documented, with various effects noted.
V. Reflections
From this analysis I learned about the basics of climate change, including many
aspects of the Earths atmosphere. I developed an intuition for the manner in which
these systems fluctuate (to a basic degree). I integrated this learning into the
development of a statistical model that connected both the longitudinal aspects of
the Vostok ice core data and the dynamical aspects of climate change. I used a
relatively new type of modelling developed in the context of linear mixed effects
models to more accurately fit the complexity of the Vostok ice core data. This was a
good challenge in itself. In addition, from these analyses it appears as though there
are interesting results not only in terms of the creation of an integrated model, but

also in terms of coupling effects between some of the variables. This could have
important implications for climate change research.

Works Cited:
Boyce, William E. and Richard C. DiPrima. Elementary Differential Equations and
Boundary Value Problems. New York: John Wiley and Sons. 2001.
Hansen, Kathryn. Water Vapor Confirmed as Major Player in Climate Change.
NASA. 17 Nov 2008. Accessed: 12 Feb 2015. Online. Available:
<<http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/vapor_warming.html>>.
Overview of Greenhouse Gases. US EPA. Accessed: 12 Feb 2015. Online.
Available: <<http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/ch4.html>>.
Dubin J.A., Mller H.G. Dynamical correlation for multivariate longitudinal data.
Journal of the American Statistical Association. 100: 872-881, 2005.
Schwartz, Stephen E., Robert J. Charlson, Ralph Kahn and Henning Rodhe. Earths
Climate Sensitivity: Apparent Inconsistencies in Recent Assessments. Working
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Schiermeier, Quirin. The Real Holes in Climate Science. Nature. Vol. 463. 21 Jan
2010.
Otto, Alexander, Friederike E. L. Otto, Olivier Boucher, John Church, Gabi Hegerl,
Piers M. Forster, Nathan P. Gillett, Jonathan Gregory, Gregory C. Johnson, Reto
Knutti, Nicholas Lewis, Ulrike Lohmann, Jochem Marotzke, Gunnar Myhre, Drew
Shindell, Bjorn Stevens and Myles R. Allen. Energy budget constraints on climate
response. Nature Geoscience. 19 May 2013.