You are on page 1of 10

1

IATA Financial Forecast March 2013 2 . Passenger (2013F) Total Revenue (2013F) 3.1 Billion 671 Billion USD Percentage of Total Scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilometres Source: IATA Watts (published in 2012).IATA Traffic Flows Between Regions Schd.

Industry Aircraft Delivery and Financing Outlook Capital Providers Export Credit Agencies Commercial Banks Lessors Public Debt /Capital Markets Private Equity / Hedge Funds Tax Equity Airframe and Engine Manufacturers Source: Boeing. Goldman Sachs 3 .

4 Billion USD financing has been done. 97 Fleet Group 97 100 A/C New Orders A330 20 Wide Body B777 20 A320 CEO/NEO 117 Narrow Body B737 NG/MAX 95 Total 252 83 1 %1 2008 ÖVDE 85 %5103 %25 102 1 %25 18 1 17 67 %24 84 2007 2007 2005 100 %1 2006 2 127 4 18 133 %19 20 29 %5 %5 2008 %19 2009 9 179 7 45 6 36 %19 159 334 %19 %14 %13 155 138 124 109 202 35 %5 %13 5 4 105 2008 100 235 158 %25 2009 2008 2007 7 74 100 17 83 116 1 97 83 100 415 %13 2010 2009 2010 %76 %14 2011 2009 2010 2011 %17 2012 2013 20 2020 Cargo Narrow Body Wide BodyGÖVDE GÖVDE GENİŞ AJET KARGO AJET GENİŞDAR GÖVDE AJET KARGO DAR GÖVDE GENİŞ GÖVDE Seat Capacity 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 CAGR 12k 15k 28k 51k 80k 10 % 4 .18 2 Fleet Development 17  Total of 8.

9 20.5 16.9 14.5 15.1 AVG (2006-2012):19% 0 2006 ** 2013F :Forecasted 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 5 .2 17.Financial Development / Revenue & Operating Profit (Million USD) Total Revenue (Million USD) Operating Profit 700 600 9800 494 500 9749 389 8318 400 255 300 7072 215 247 200 4719 100 100 0 1539 1362 1961 1898 1964 -100 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 -200 -300 11800 585 571 2318 70 2005 2834 3737 4552 5800 5448 299 3800 1800 60 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -200 2012 -2200 -151 -216 -4200 Pax Revenue Split by Geography Far East 22% Europe 33% 7800 Ebitdar Margin % 30 22.3 Domestic 14% Middle East 13% Africa America 8% 10% 20 10 22.

7 -5% -4% World RPK Growth THY RPK Growth Linear (World RPK Growth) Linear (THY RPK Growth)  Population growth rate %0.  World passenger traffic (RPK) growth rate %4. ICAO 2011. Airbus GMF 2012 6 .9 Source : IATA Financial Forecast.Turkey and Turkish Airlines’ Growth 2002 – 2012 Passenger Growth Rates RPK Growth % 30% 30% 27% 25% 23% 275% 19% 20% 227% 19% 19% 15% 15% 15% 13% 27p 17% 14% 9% 10% 79% 6% 6% 6% 6% 4% 5% 5% 3% 2% 2% 0% world tr 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 -2% -1% 3M -3% tk Next 20 years.

5 million km2 Area 500 TK is flying to more countries than TK is the 4 th largest airline in terms any other airline in the world. of network size Airline Domestic International UNITED AIRLINES 229 152 381 DELTA AIRLINES 218 102 320 AMERICAN AIRLINES 169 100 269 TURKISH AIRLINES 39 190 229 Total Aircraft Park Positions (Pahse 2) 150 million PASSENGERS CAPACITY (Phase2) A candidate for 3rd Biggest (After Phase 1) & Biggest (After Phase 2) Source: OAG (2013 May) in the World 7 .3rd Airport in Global Rankings ISTANBUL 1 4 76.

Int 113) Planned Destinations (32 Destinations) 8 . 77 Int) 2013 .Network Development 2002 THY Network 103 Destinations (26 Dom.Current 125 New Destinations (Dom 13.

%5 %4. New ASU increased ECA premiums. less dependent on conventional financing methods (ECA. debt service in line with operational cash generation 9 .5 .%8 %4.%5.%3.%4.3 %3.6 . more towards commercial financing sources and capital markets (EETC.8 Transition: ECA  Commercial.3 . unsecured bond)  Focus on longer term financing (up to 14 years)  Focus on managing maturity risk.5 %4 .5 ECA (2nd Category) JOLCO Operational Tenor 12 years 9. Limited ECA credit lines Heading Towards :  More diversified sources of financing  Paralel to the industry transition.Financing Alternatives and Outlook Unsecured Bond EETC (2-Tranches Blended) Sukuk 10 years 5 – 10 years 9 – 11 years 5 – 7 years %7.5 .5 . EXIM).%5.5 years Cost %3.