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Droidcon: Licensing and Open Source

Droidcon: Licensing and Open Source

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Published by Volker Hirsch
Deck of my presentation given at Droidcon 2009 (4 Nov 2009) in Berlin.
Deck of my presentation given at Droidcon 2009 (4 Nov 2009) in Berlin.

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Published by: Volker Hirsch on Mar 27, 2010
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11/05/2010

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Licensing & Open Source

Droidcon, Berlin - 4 Nov 2009

Volker Hirsch CEO Blue Beck

Who is this guy?
Investment Opportunity: Little World Gifts (redefining digital gifts)
Opportunity
Little World Gifts offers an appealing investment opportunity for investors seeking significant returns from early stage investment in high growth markets. Little World Gifts is positioned to maximise returns through creating a new market for digital goods on mobile starting with the iPhone platform with deep web and social network (Facebook) integration. The opportunity builds on the exciting landscape of the booming (yet still early and undeveloped) mobile smartphone space, and the potentially enormous (and also early) digital goods space. With extremely low overheads and high margins, the company is set to turn over £2m in year 1, 50% of which is profit. With a valuation of £2m (Year 1 profit x2), Little World Gifts is seeking £150,000 Angel investment ahead of launch in exchange for 10% equity in the business. This is an opportunity to get involved early in a dynamic business at the very leading edge of both the digital goods, and the iPhone / mobile 2.0 sectors.

The potential - for Little World / Corporate Strategy - Licensing market M&A Gifts isCorporate Finance large now, and growing rapidly. The Digital Goods Market will see exponential growth in coming years, and whilst iPhone already has a strong customer base of content hungry consumers (70% of customers pay

Enormous Market Potential

on average $80/year) for content in the iTunes App Store), smart phone usage is set to increase dramatically. Little World Gifts will be on 50% of smart phones by 2014.

Growth in Global Mobile Marketing Spend
$5.70bn

$1.70bn

$2.16bn

In addition there is an increasing demand for mobile marketing and for digital goods solutions (as a key part of a digital marketing strategy). Mobile will be more appealing and attract increased marketing spend by brands. ($5.7bn in 2014).

!

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014 $7B $4.67B

Growth in Digital Goods Market
Digital Goods (and specifically gifts) have been popularised by services such as QQ.com (China), Cyworld (South Korea),

Why am I talking about Licensing?

Here it Comes

Q: Do brands care for open source? A: No.

Brands are platform-agnostic.

Licensing rationale
Developer

License

$$

$

How (on earth) do I get a license?

Common Solutions:

1.

2.

The Average Licensing Model
(Simplified Version of how it was, is and always has been)

Go back to

Developer looks at roadmap and realises he needs another license

• •
OR Licensor puts out RFP Developer approaches licensor directly

Developer distributes through his channels Developer finds publishers and/or aggregators to distribute it through

AND/OR

See green star...

• • •
OR Developer prepares reply to RFP Developer prepares offer outlining creative concept and commercial case. See the green star...

Game is finished and filed for approval.

Developer goes ahead. Finalises beta build and files for approval.

• •

Developer waits for approval.

Licensor approves design.


OR

Developer manages to get Licensor’s attention

• •
Kick-off meeting between Licensor and Developer: will include creative teams, approval departments, etc. Look for introductions to other licensees as it helps with co-marketing

Developer gets formal design document under way and files for approval.

• •

Developer loses...

In the latter case, go back to

• •
If successful, Licensor comes back with huge royalty (“50% minimum!!!”) and MG demands (including sizable up-front payments; “mid-6 figures”).

Deal is signed!

Period of negotiations between expensive lawyers over every little term (“best efforts” vs “commercially reasonable efforts”, etc, etc, etc, etc)

Developer (or his banker) gets heart attack and pushes back with elaborate explanation on development effort needed.

The Parties negotiate hard and for weeks (or months) until they reach common ground (which Licensor think is shabby and leaves Developer wondering how to ever repay his debt...

Result 1. Lucky 2. Not so lucky

This game delivered on brand value, execution and commercial success.

I am not saying that this is a bad game. But it IS a poor use of a brand.

Not very compelling.

Show me the money...

It’s in your pocket...
Catchy phrase inspired by Jonathan MacDonald

Just ask the right question!

BRAND Licensing

Q: What do brands look for?

A: Users.

Users are also commonly known as “customers” or “consumers”

Sell or Else...

David Ogilvy

BRANDS...

• Sell

Services & products. their Image & Message.

• Promote

• Open additional - Licensing!?

revenue streams...

Licensing is NOT core!

Media vs Non-Media Brands

Non-media (e.g. VW, P&G, Carling): extend their brand and image.

Media (e.g. FT, Hasbro, Fox): (also) building additional verticals.

The right question:

How can you help them?

Here’s your Pitch:

Use Media to Extend Reach!

Digital media advantage vs analogue media: interactive, i.e. multi-directional.

Use Mobile to Extend Reach!
Mobile is the most powerful digital medium to date. Why? 1.It’s Big (numbers) 2.It’s Personal (nature) 3.It’s really personal (Identification of needs)

480,000,000 Daily global circulation of newspapers 1,500,000,000 Number of Internet users 1,700,000,000 Number of credit cards 2,250,000,000 Number of tooth brushes in use 4,600,000,000 Number of mobile phone subscriptions

The Nature of Mobile: It’s a 1st!
• • • • • •
Personal mass media Always carried Always on Built-in billing system Always present at the point of creative impulse Accurate audience identification

Tomi Ahonen, Mobile the 7th Mass Media, 2008; Alan Moore & Jonathan MacDonald, The Glittering Allure of the Mobile Society, 2008

Significance of Mobile to Users...

91% of people have their mobile within arm’s reach 24/7.
Morgan Stanley 2007

64% of Americans are not willing to share their mobile with anyone. 60% of married people will not share their mobile with their spouse!
Wired Magazine 2006

I takes an average of 26 h for a user to report a lost wallet but only 68 minutes to report a lost mobile phone.
Unisys Survey

8 out of 10 German men would rather lose their wife than their mobile phone.
Jonathan MacDonald; Survey of 10 German men at 1am in a bar...

... and how Brands use it...
• •
In 2008, Procter & Gamble spent 0.17% of their advertising budget on mobile.

Informa/Acision/OgilvyOne

Volkswagen spent 1% of their DIGITAL budget on mobile (that was 2008...).
VW CRM Manager cited by Andrew Grill

BUT Volkswagen also just announced that the ONLY campaign for the 2010 VW Golf GTI will be an iPhone Game (“Real Racing GTI”)... Quick learning!*
* This is autumn 2009

(c) gapingvoid

Change the Language...

Engagement!
• • •
Engage, don’t lecture. Be Sincere. Mean what you say. Result: users become brand ambassadors.

+
YOU!

No Fine Print

Engagement!

Games & apps are perfect for this! - Interaction. - Less intrusion. - Brand takes centre stage: shine! - Love it, recommend it.
74% of all purchases are made because of recommendations by friends! Bain Consulting

Old World vs New World: It works now.
176x208 J2ME games Current-generation iPhone games

01100110101101001100100100100 10100110010011100101010101110 01100110101101001100100100100 10100110010011100101010101110 01100110101101001100100100100 10100110010011100101010101110 01100110101101001100100100100 10100110010011100101010101110 01100110101101001100100100100 10100110010011100101010101110 01100110101101001100100100100 10100110010011100101010101110 01100110101101001100100100100 10100110010011100101010101110 01100110101101001100100100100

X

Brands’ and Users’ Perspective: Shine, not tech talk.

vs

Damn’ it! This all smells of iPhone!

Where’s Android?

(c) gapingvoid

It’s here:

Well, it COULD be here (if the Open Handset Alliance executes well).

Let’s ask again:

Q: Do brands care for open source? A: Yes.

This is why: 123,296,966,069,999,387,456

The Law of Big Numbers

How Android apps compare (1)

APPS AVAILABLE
Total # of apps
Apple Android BlackBerry

Paid vs Free

FREE AND PAID
Free Paid

12,000 2,900

Apple App Store

23%

77%

Google Android Market

64%

36%

88,000

BlackBerry App World

24%

76%

Distimo, CTIA San Diego, 2009

How Android apps compare (2)

Flurry Analytics Blog, 6 Aug. 2009

Android is set to explode.
Eric Schmidt, CEO Google

Inspiration!
$

t

Android’s Weapon

OPEN = Infinite scale!
Platforms Vendors

The Equation:
+ Brands want users. Users want good stuff (and don’t care if it is open/closed, widget/app, this/that... as long as it works) Brands want big numbers. Android has (OK: will have) big numbers. Android can deliver kool-aid.

+ + +

= Great Opportunity for Brands (= $$

$ for Everyone [incl. Developer])

Summing up:
• • • •
Engage, don’t lecture. Treat licensing as a brand extension, not as a (presumed) means to sell 0.x% more. Forget tech-heavy preaching. Just deliver compelling stuff to your users. Deliver it in big numbers.

Got all that? You have a winner!

BTW: Winner means that the user wins! The rest (incl. $$$) comes then almost on its own...

Image & Video Credits
http:/ /www.explodingdog.com/drawing/ihavenoidea.jpg http:/ /1.bp.blogspot.com/_Vr8Xl0cbUZA/SVJzaekjMQI/AAAAAAAAFWU/gvOyNNzcdis/s400/Image+%3D+clueless+is+no+excuse.jpg http:/ /www.mtco.com/~rkblack/Open-Door_0032a.jpg http:/ /filmgordon.files.wordpress.com/2009/03/conneryaston.jpg http:/ /www.gapingvoidgallery.com/images/talkedjgif002.jpg http:/ /www.iphoneincanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/carling_ipint.png http:/ /www.mobileshop.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/10/ipint-virtual-beer-under-fire.bmp http:/ /farm4.static.flickr.com/3250/3074199062_f434be862a_o.jpg http:/ /miraloqueveo.files.wordpress.com/2008/09/david-ogilvy.jpg http:/ /www.nationalserviceexpress.com/mogulus-user-uploads.s3.amazonaws.com/B6A8222A-4B39-2BD5-CF85-179823589EF8.jpg http:/ /gapingvoidgallery.com http:/ /nexus404.com/Blog/2009/10/23/2010-volkswagen-gti-presented-in-iphone-game-play-firement-real-racing-and-win-a-2010-vwgti-exclusively-on-the-iphone/ http:/ /www.toptenreviews.com/i/rev/misc/articles/old_blog/blog_963_1.jpg http:/ /www.iphonic.tv/assets_c/2009/07/barclaycard-waterslide-extreme-1-thumb-430x285-92255.png http:/ /www.oneighturbo.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/01-oneighturbo-sciroccoR-iphone-091509.jpg http:/ /media.photobucket.com/image/papa%20roach/crazyOAgirlFERlife/Papa_Roach.png http:/ /www.youtube.com/watch?v=dPYM-XTqcec http:/ /markhirschfeld.files.wordpress.com/2009/08/open-door1.jpg http:/ /www.freeverse.com/assets/games/9003/screenshots/456/174114905.jpg http:/ /www.firemint.com/realracing/screenshots.html http:/ /i264.photobucket.com/albums/ii187/botvinya/worker_mechanic.jpg

Thank you!

+44 7843 599 678 @vhirsch vhirsch@bluebeck.co.uk http:/ /bluebeck.co.uk http:/ /vhirsch.com/blog

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