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B TI CHNH
TRNG H TI CHNH MARKETING
KHOA MARKETING
CNG MN HC
NGHIN CU MARKETING
Hc k
Nm hc:
: NGHIN CU MARKETING
2. S n v hc trnh : 04
3. i tng hc
S tit : 60
: SV nm 3
Marketing cn bn
5. M t mn hc
Hot ng sn xut kinh doanh ca mt cng ty gn lin vi vic ra quyt
nh ca nh qun tr. c th c nhng quyt nh chnh xc nht, cc nh
qun tr khng th ch da vo kinh nghim v phn on theo cm tnh ch quan
m cn c thng tin h tr.
Cc quyt nh kinh doanh phi da trn c s thu thp v phn tch cc mt
cch khoa hc theo nhng tin trnh v phng php nht nh. Vic hiu bit
thun thc cng tc thc hnh nghin cu kinh doanh tr thnh mt nhu cu
quan trng trong doanh nghip.
Hc phn ch trng vo cc l thuyt c bn v cch thc thc hnh nghin,
t vic xac nh vn nghin cu, son tho bng cu hi, thu thp d liu, x l
v vit bo co.
6. Mc tiu ca mn hc
Sau khi hc xong hc phn , sinh vin c th:
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7. T chc mn hc
Chng trnh bao gm 2 hot ng: hot ng trong gi hc ti lp v cc
hot ng ngoi gi hc.
Hot ng trong lp bao gm:
-
Hot ng ngoi gi
-
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Tham d lp hc y
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CHNG 1
Mc tiu chng I
Mc tiu ca chng nhm trnh by tng qut nht cc khi nim nghin
Ni dung chng
1. Khi nim v vai tr ca nghin cu Marketing
2. Phn loi nghin cu Marketing
3. H thng thng tin Marketing
4. Ngi thc hin v ngi s dng kt qu NC
5. Quy trnh nghin cu Marketing
6. K hoch nghin cu Marketing
III.
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doanh nghip.
Trong thc t, chng ta thng nghe nhiu n hai thut ng l nghin cu
marketing (Marketing Research) v nghin cu th trng (Market Research)
Cng cn phi phn bit gia hai nh ngha ny. Nghin cu Marketing
(Marketing Research) mang ngha rng bao gm vic nghin cu nhiu hot
ng marketing trong c vic nghin cu th trng, nhm mc ch xc nh
cc c hi th trng hay cc vn tn ti hoc mi ny sinh. T cc kt qa tm
thy , nh nghin cu tip th phi c gng xut cc gii php marketing.
Nghin cu th trng (Market Reasearch) tp trung vo vic iu tra v o lng
cc hin tng trn th trng theo mt ngha hp hn, i khi c th khng i su
vo vic tm kim cc nguyn nhn cng nh c th khng xut mt gii php
no c.
Cng c cch hiu rng nghin cu marketing th hin trong vic nghin cu
hn lm, cn nghin cu th trng s dng trong thc t.
Nghin cu marketing ng dng nhng k thut v nguyn tc ca cc cuc
nghin cu khoa hc (Scientific Research) mang 4 tnh cht:
Khch quan, kim sot nhng iu kin gy ra sai lch.
Chnh xc thng qua cc cng c o lng hiu qu
L gic.
c chng minh qua th nghim.
Nghin cu marketing ng dng chui l lun c tnh cch h thng thng qua:
Quan st (Observation)
Tho lun ( Discussion ) - Phng vn (Interviewing )
Lp gi thit (Formulation of hypotheses)
D on tng lai (Prediction of the futures)
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13
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Phn tch
Hoch nh
H thng
ghi chp
ni b
Tnh bo
Marketing
Mi trng
Marketing
Th trng mc tiu
Knh phn phi
i th cnh tranh
Thc hin
T chc
Phn phi
thng tin
Kim sot
H thng
h tr ra
quyt nh
H thng
nghin cu
Marketing
Cng chng
Cc nhn t thuc
mi trng v m
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Tnh kinh t trong vic c c thng tin (ph tn cho vic nghin cu)
Bc 1: Xc nh vn v mc tiu nghin cu
Bc 5: Bo co v trnh by kt qu nghin cu
18
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Thm d, kho st (Survey): Mang ngha thu thp thng tin qua
mt s ngi no , ch trng ti vic ly kin ca h.
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Xc nh ta tm thng tin u?
Ai l ngi nm thng tin ta cn bit? S lng nhng ngi nhiu hay
t? H tp trung hay ri rc?
C th no tm kim trong cc sch bo hay khng, c th hi c quan nh
nc hay tng cc thng k khng?
Nu cn phi hi kin th hi ai? H u? Ly mu nh th no? Kch
c ca mu l bao nhiu?
Nghin cu tip th ht sc ch trng n khch hng v cc i th cnh
tranh, y l nhng i tng thng khng ng nht, ht sc a dng v y bt
ng. Do thng tin khng ch khai thc t mt ngun m cn thu thp i chiu
t nhiu ngun.
D liu th cp c hai ngun thng tin sau
Ngun ni b:
L nhng ti liu, con s ca chnh doanh nghip. Mun nghin cu ta c th
thu thp d liu ny qua:
Bo co ti chnh.
Cc vn bn ni b.
Ngun bn ngoi
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b) Vi d liu s cp :
Nh nghin cu t thc hin cc cuc iu tra, kho st.
4/ Bc 4- Quyt nh chn phng php no c c nhng thng
tin cn thit
Lm cch no c c thng tin (phng php thu thp)?
Ai lm nghin cu? (Mua thng tin, thu nghin cu hay t nghin cu)
Phng vn hay quan st hoc tho lun vi i tng nghin cu
Ngi ta s dng cc phng php thu thp thng tin sau:
Quan st
Phng vn
Th nghim.
5/- Bc 5 : Tin hnh thc hin vic thu thp thng tin v x l thng
tin
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Cc cng vic chun b, khu hu cn- phi hp, khu kim sot
Thc hin vic iu tra, phng vn, quay phim, chp hnh, ghi m, o
c thi gian v ng tc, hnh vi ca cc i tng, cc hot ng
tip th..
M ha d liu,
6/- Bc 6 : Phn tch v din gii ngha ca nhng thng tin tm thy
- Lp thnh cc bng biu thch hp.
- Tnh ton ra cc con s ni ln nhng ngha ca cc thng tin tm
thy. (Cc s biu th tp trung, phn tn ca d liu, cc t s so snh, cc
s biu th tnh tng quan v.v)
- i chiu nhng thng tin khng n khp tm ra thng tin ph hp.
- Kim nh cc gi thit.
- Rt ra cc kt lun v ngha ca thng tin
7/- Bc 7 : Bo co, trnh by kt qu nghin cu
-Ngi c bo co l cp lnh o, nhng ngi lm quyt nh kinh
doanh hay ngi thu nghin cu
- Cc s liu phi c din gii minh bch qua nhng phng php phn
tch so snh din dch, suy on mt cch khoa hc trc khi rt ra nhng kt lun
- Vit bo co bng vn bn cho cp lnh o hay ngi s dng c 2 loi :
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Theo David Luck & Ronald Rubin , Marketing Research , 7 th Ed. ,Prentice
Hall Intl , New Jersey , 1987, trang 4.
Lu : Tht s c nhiu sch gio khoa a ra nhng tin trnh c s bc
nhiu hay t v c cch gi tn khc nhau tu theo mc chi tit ho. Ta khng
nht thit phi tin chc rng ch c sch ny ng sch kia sai, m can nhn nh
nn p dng tin trnh no thch hp cho c th ring ca mt cuc nghin cu
mnh s tin hnh.
1.6
K hoch nghin cu
tin hnh nghin cu t hiu qu cn phi lp k hoch hiu r vn
2)
3)
Mc ch nghin cu
4)
bo co sau ny.
5)
6)
7)
8)
9)
10)
11)
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12)
Chi ph d tr
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CU HI N TP V THO LUN
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CHNG 2
M HNH NGHIN CU MARKETING
I.
Mc tiu chng 2
II.
Ni dung chng:
1. Khi nim m hnh nghin cu
2. Mi quan h nhn qu
3. Cc m hnh nghin cu
4. Khi nim marketing th nghim
III.
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Cc m hnh nghin cu
C nhiu cc tiu chun khc nhau phn loi m hnh nghin cu song
cch phn loi hu ch v thng dng nht l cch phn loi c lin quan n mc
tiu ca nghin cu. Trn c s ny, c ba dng m hnh nghin cu c bn, l:
m hnh nghin cu khm ph, m hnh nghin cu m t v m hnh nghin cu
nhn qu. Ty vo tng dng m hnh m c cc kiu d liu cng nh k thut
thu thp d liu khc nhau.
2.3.1. Thit k nghin cu khm ph
Mc ch ca nghin cu khm ph l nhm pht hin s b vn nghin
cu, xc nh chnh xc hn cc vn . Nghin cu khm ph cng hiu qu
trong vic thit lp cc gi thuyt nghin cu (nh vic nhn din cc bin s lin
h) hay nh nghin cu cn thm thng tin thit k bng cu hi. Kt qu ca
cuc nghin cu khm ph thng c cc nh qun tr marketing s dng nhiu
nht, c bit l trong cc trng hp cn ra quyt nh nhanh chng.
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Nghin cu khm ph thng c thc hin thng qua nhiu k thut khc
nhau v rt linh hot. Khi xy dng m hnh nghin cu khm ph, nh nghin
cu cn linh ng s dng cc k thut ph hp trong vic thu thp d liu. Cc
phng php thu thp d liu thng c dng gm hai nhm chnh: nghin cu
khm ph thng qua d liu th cp v nghin cu khm ph qua d liu s cp.
Nghin cu khm ph thng qua d liu th cp c gi l phng php
nghin cu ti bn nhm thu thp cc d liu th cp. D liu th cp bao gm c
d liu nh tnh v nh lng. y l cch thc nhanh chng v tit kim nht
thu thp thng tin, khm ph th trng. Tuy nhin, d liu th cp c nhc im
l c th khng ph hp vi mc tiu nghin cu, d liu qu li thi v tin cy
thp. iu ng ch l khi thu thp d liu th cp, nh nghin cu cn phi ch
n vic nh gi ngun thng tin. Ngy nay, ngun thng tin rt a dng v
phong ph nh sch, bo, tp ch, bo co ni b, cc n phm, nin gim thng
kc bit l ngun thng tin di do v v hn v tng i cp nht nh mng
internet. y l c hi cng nh thch thc cho nh nghin cu trong vic la
chn, nh gi ngun thng tin v tin hnh thu thp.
Nghin cu khm ph thng qua d liu s cp l nh nghin cu s dng
cc k thut nghin cu nh tnh nh phng vn nhng chuyn gia am hiu vn
hay cn gi l nghin cu da vo kinh nghim (experience survey), tho lun
nhm, tho lun tay i, nghin cu trng hp in hnh
2.3.2. M hnh nghin cu m t
y l m hnh nghin cu nhm mc ch m t th trng, m khng thit
lp mt s lin h gia cc yu t. Cc dng nghin cu m t thng s dng
nhm m t chn dung khch hng (nh gii tnh, tui, thu nhp, ngh nghip,
trnh hc vn, tnh trng hn nhn..); hnh vi v thi quen tiu dng ca khch
hng vi mt chng loi sn phm no gi l nghin cu U&A (Usage &
Attitude); cc phn ng ca h vi cc chng trnh tip th ca doanh nghip;
32
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(2) M hnh mt nhm thc nghim o lng trc v sau (one-group pretestposttest design)
Trong m hnh ny, cc nh nghin cu tin hnh o lng cc i tng
nghin cu trc khi th nghim, sau a vo cc x l thc nghim ri
li tin hnh o lng sau th nghim
V d, cc nhn vin trc khi tham gia kha hun luyn k nng bn hng
c o lng kt qu bn hng ca h. Sau khi kha hc kt thc, kt qu
bn hng ca h c o lng tip so snh vi kt qu lc u
K hiu m hnh:
EG: O1 X O2
(3) M hnh thc nghim dc (Longitudinal design) hay m hnh chui thi gian
(time-series design)
M hnh l s m rng ca m hnh c kim nghim trc v sau, nh
nghin cu s thc hin cc o lng lin tc trc v sau x l
K hiu m hnh:
EG: O1 O2 O3 O4 X O5 O6 O7 O8
EG:
X O1
CG:
O2
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EG: R O1 X O2
CG: R O3
O4
M hnh nhm kim chng ch o lng sau ((posttest - only group design or
after -only with control design)
Trong nhiu trng hp, vic quan st v o lng trc khng th thc hin
c (th d nh a ra mt sn phm mi, trc cha tng bn nn
khng th o c doanh s). Do ch c th o lng sau vi mt nhm
th nghim v mt nhm kim chng.
K hiu m hnh:
EG: R X O1
CG: R O2
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O2 = ch c tc ng ca yu t ngoi lai
O1 - O2 = hiu ng x l ( loi b c yu t ngoi lai)
So snh sai bit v s o ca 2 nhm, ta c hiu ng ca x l th nghm
bng O1 - O2. y ngi ta cng gi nh rng cc yu t ngoi lai tc
ng nh nhau trn hai nhm, sau khi so snh n s b loi tr, tuy nhin
trong thc t v khng o lng trc nn cng khng th ni rng hai nhm
trc kia hon ton ging nhau, khng h c sai bit no.
(3) M hnh bn nhm Solomon (Solomon Four-Group Design)
y l m hnh tng hp c hai loi m hnh th nghim trnh by trn.
M hnh c 4 nhm (2 nhm th nghim + 2 nhm kim chng) v c ti 6
ln quan st v o lng. M hnh c gi tt l m hnh Solomon hoc m
hnh khn ngoan (wise design) hoc thc nghim kim sot rt l tng
(Ideal controlled experiment).
Nh ta bit trong m hnh nhm kim chng c o lng trc v sau
(pretest - posttest control group design) tc l nhm th nghim 1 v nhm
kim chng 1 cn tn ti vn yu t nhy cm (sensitizing aspect) ca
nhng c nhn sau khi c o lng trc lm nh hng ti vic th
nghim v o lng sau. Th d qua kinh nghim mt ln o lng ri,
n khi c o ln sau h s tr li nhanh hn, tp trung hn, v thng c
t ra mnh am hiu vn hn, chn chn hn nhng i khi li c tnh
phng i hoc bp mo kt qu v h ngh rng s c mt tin thng hay
li lc g . T chuyn mn s dng l hiu ng tng tc trong khi o
lng (interactive testing effect).
loi b ci hiu ng tng tc ny, ngi ta s dng trung bnh cng ca
s do 2 ln o lng trc (O1 + O3) so snh vi kt qu o lng hai ln
sau l O5 v O6.
Hiu ng x l = (O5 - O1 + O3 )/2 - (O6 - O1 + O3)/2
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K hiu :
EG1: R O1 X O2
CG1: R O3
O4
EG2: R
X O5
CG2: R
O6
Hiu ng th nghim:
(O2 - O1) - (O5 - O1 + O3)
2
M hnh Solomon c tnh cch cht ch v thuyt phc, t c hiu lc bn
trong (internal valiolity) cao nhng khi thc hin trong thc t s kh tn km v
mt nhiu thi gian. Tuy nhin, v l thuyt n gip ta phn nh c nhng sai
lm c th mc phi trong khi lm th nghim.
2.4 Cc m hnh th nghim phc tp (Complex Experimental Designs)
Nh chng ta hc v m hnh th nghim c bn trn, nh nghin cu
ch vn dng tp trung vo mt bin c c lp m thi. Trong thc t, nhiu khi
ta cn th nghim cng lc nhiu bin s, tm xem nhn t no em li hiu ng
ln nht v gia nhng bin s c tc ng qua li nh th no dn n mt s
phi hp no c hiu qu nht.
Th d, nghin cu cng lc s thay i gi c ( cc mc khc nhau) v
kch c bao b khc nhau. Nhiu trng hp khc khng phi ch l hai bin s m
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khi phi s dng c nhng bin php nghi binh hoc gi v c nhng quyt nh
ng nghch i th nh gi sai.
Chi ph cho cc th nghim marketing thng kh cao, tuy nhin i vi
cc sn phm i hi u t ln th nhng chi ph cn thit phi c s dng
trnh c nhng thit hi t nhng sai lm ln no ch c th pht hin qua
thc t th trng.
Cc phng php th nghim marketing c th c thit lp cc th trng sau:
a/ Ti th trng th nghim tiu chun (Standard Test Markets)
Nh sn xut chn mt thnh ph tiu biu, c lc lng bn hng mnh
b/ Ti th trng th nghim c kim sot (Controled Test Markets)
Nh sn xut hp ng vi mt nhm ca hng ng bn sn phm mi
theo cch x l ca nh sn xut nh : s lng by bn, s ca hng, hnh thc
trng by, trang tr, p dng cc mc gi khc nhau. Ni chung nh sn xut c
th kim sot v iu phi cc yu t nm trong marketing hn hp (4P) rt ra
nhng quyt nh cn thit. Doanh s v thi ca khch hng c quan st v
o lng qua my mc v nh nghin cu.
c/ Ti th trng m phng (Simulated test markets)
Nh nghin cu xy dng mt mi trng bn hng gi nh nh tht.
Khch hng c chn la hng ngn sn phm mi v hng ha ca i th cnh
tranh. Nh nghin cu ghi nhn doanh s, phng vn ngi mua ti ch hay bng
in thoi ti nh ring ca h sau ny o lng mc hi lng v nh mua
hng ln sau ca h.
d/ Nghin cu cc t mua hng (Sales Wave Research)
Mt nhm khch hng c th c a vo th nghim qua nhng t cho
dng th khng ly tin ln u, c gim gi cho vi ln sau. Mi mt t nh
nghin cu s quan st v o lng phn ng ca ngi tiu dng. Cch lm ny
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CU HI N TP V THO LUN
1.
2.
3.
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CHNG 3
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nhn khu ca i tng nghin cu nh gii tnh, tnh trng hn nhn, ngnh
ngh kinh doanhCc php ton thng k c th c s dng cho dng thang o
ny l: php m (tn s), tnh tn sut (t l phn trm) ca mt biu hin no ,
xc nh gi tr mode.
V d: Anh(ch) vui lng cho bit ngh nghip ca anh(ch) l g?
Hc sinh, sinh vin
Gio vin
Cng nhn
Cn b hu tr
Khc..
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T 3-5 triu
Trn 5 triu
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Hon
Tng
ton
khng
khng
ng
ng
Trung
Tng
lp
i ng
Hon
ton
ng
yu cu ca mn hc
vi thc tin
Ni dung cc mn hc c cp nht, i mi, p
ng tt yu cu o to
Phng php ging dy ca ging vin ph hp vi
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2:
Thu
nhp
trung
bnh
hng
thng
ca
anh/ch
l______________ng
V d 3. u t ca doanh nghip vo cc hng mc sau y l bao nhiu
phn trm trong tng vn u t
Bt ng sn..__________%
Chng khon.__________%
Khai thc v ch bin lm sn..__________%
Khc(xin ghi r)...__________%
TNG
100 %
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52
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54
Cc s kin thc t
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56
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Th d: cu tr li thm u thm ui
iu ti ght nht i vi bia Tiger l------------------------------Trong cc qung co ca Coca Cola, ti thch nht l--------------------------------- Phng chiu (to project) c ngha l trn mt ci nn cho sn s dng cc k
thut lin kt cc nim hay hon chnh chng cho mt ngha y .
b) Cu hi ng (Closed End Question)
L cu hi c a ra cu tr li sn c s dng cc thang im hay hnh thc sau:
-
S dng cc loi thang nh Likert, Stapel, thang hnh nh, thang c tng
khng i...
Sau y l mt s cu hi mu c th tham kho xy dng bn cu hi.
Lu nn s dng nhiu loi thang bn cu hi c phong ph hn.
Lu cu hi xoay quanh nhng ch What (mua g, thch g, cn g?), How (mua
th no), Where (mua u), Why (ti sao mua, ti sao khng mua), When (khi
no mua, bao lu mua mt ln).
V d: Mt s thng tin cn tm V mt s mu cu hi
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1- Xc nh i tng
nh bn c s dng du gi u khng?
C
Khng
2 - Xc nh nhn hiu ang dng
Bn ang s dng du gi u nhn hiu no?
Sunsilk
Palmolive
Dimension
Clear
3 - Xc nh mc trung thnh vi nhn hiu
i vi nhn hiu _____ bn ang dng th bn l ngi
Lun lun trung thnh
Trc y c dng, nay i sang
Khng bao gi dng
Mi dng ln u
4 - Xc nh ni mua hng
Bn thng mua du gi u ______ u?
Tim un tc
Siu th
Tim tp ha
Shop
Ch
Nh thuc ty
Khc, c th l_________
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5 - Xc nh mi quan tm
Khi mua du gi u, bn quan tm ti yu t no nht (nh s th t theo tm
quan trng t 1 l quan trng nht, 6 l t quan trng nht)
___ Cht lng ph hp da u
___ Mi thm
___ Thun tin v ni mua hng
___ Gi r
___ Nhn hiu danh ting
___ Hng ngoi
6 - Cc c im ca sn phm m khch hng a chung
Dung lng chai bao nhiu th thch hp nht? Hnh dng mu m thy th no?------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------7 - Cc tc dng ca qung co, khuyn mi
Do u m bn bit n sn phm ca chng ti? ------------------------------------Bn c xem qung co gn y ca chng ti trn TV khng? Bn thy th no? -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------8 - Thm d nh mua hng
Nu c mt my tnh c nhn do Vit Nam sn xut gi 500 USD/ ci, bn c
nh mua ngay khng? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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question)
T ng c s dng hi cn thng dng d hiu. Cc hnh vn
n gin v m bo p vin c th hiu ng cu hi. Trnh dng
nhng ting lng (Th d nh b chy, ht sy) hoc trnh nhng
t k thut qu su i vi nhng i tng l i chng. (Th d:
bn c bit phn bit cp nht theo API khng?). Hoc nhng t
marketing hn lm (Th d: bn phn khc th trng ra sao?). Khng
nn dng cu qu di v trnh cu dch ngha qu xa l, qu ty hay
c th hiu lm.
T ng cng r rng v c th cng tt, khng qu chung chung. V
d cu hi bn ang s dng xe g? Cu hi y mun ni v loi xe
(2 bnh, 3 bnh, 4 bnh) hay nhn hiu xe, i xe, kiu dng xe. Ch
cc ch: loi (kind, type), thng (regularly, usually, frequently),
hoc nhu cu (needs, wants, demands) c cc mc ngha khc
nhau. Khi cn thit phi tra cu t in ting Vit bit r: (Th d
nh ch ng s hay ng x ?) v xc nh r:
o
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1 CC CU HI M U
2 - Cc cu hi nh tnh
3 - Cc cu hi hm nng
4 - Cc cu hi c th
62
Ngn gn, c ng tp nu kh di
63
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CU HI THO LUN V N TP
1. Ti sao phi o lng v nhng g c o lng trong nghin cu
maketing?
2. Thang o lng l g? C bao nhiu loi thang o
3. Phn bit gia o lng thng thng v o lng tm l. o lng tm l
c g kh khn?
4. Phn bit cu hi ng v cu hi m? u khuyt im ca tng loi ? Cho
v d minh ha
5. Hy thit k mt bng cu hi dng cho nghin cu m t th trng nc
ngt
D Th Chung
65
CHNG 4
Mc tiu chng 4
II.
Bit cch xc nh c mu ph hp
Ni dung chng
D Th Chung
66
D Th Chung
67
68
D Th Chung
69
Tng
Kch
C
Mu
Sai s do
chn mu (SE)
Sai s khng
do chn mu (NE)
SE
SE
nN
Sai s khng
do chn mu (NE)
SE 0
Sai s khng
do chn mu (NE)
Sai s khng
do chn mu (NE) max
Joselyn,R.W.(1977),
the nghin
Marketingcu
Research
Project, New York: Mason/Charter
4.3Ngun:
Hn ch
ca vic chn Designing
mu trong
marketing
D Th Chung
70
71
72
Bc
Trung
Nam
Tng
cng
150
100
200
450
2.Ra xe
100
70
180
350
100
80
170
350
350
250
550
1.150
Sa xe
TNG CNG
D Th Chung
73
4.4.1.4. Phng php chn mu ngu nhin tch t (hoc tp trung) (Cluster
Sampling)
Cc mu chn tp trung l cch chn tp trung vo i tng mun chn
trong mt nhm ngi no v loi b ngay nhng thnh phn khng nm trong
mc tiu nghin cu.
Trc tin lp danh sch tng th chung theo tng khi (nh lng, x,
phng, lng sn phm sn xut trong 1 khong thi gian). Sau , ta chn
ngu nhin mt s khi v iu tra tt c cc n v trong khi chn. Thng
dng phng php ny khi khng c sn danh sch y ca cc n v trong
tng th cn nghin cu. V d : Tng th chung l sinh vin ca mt trng i
hc. Khi ta s lp danh sch cc lp ch khng lp danh sch sinh vin, sau
chn ra cc lp iu tra.
V d 1: Nghin cu v in thoi di ng ta nn tp trung vo nhng ngi
c thu nhp cao v l cn b hay nh kinh doanh bun bn, ch khng gp ai cng
hi hay i vo chn mu trong khu lao ng.
V d 2: Nghin cu v th hiu tiu dng gch men xy dng cao cp, ta nn
tp trung vo cc h mi xy nh hay ang xy nh khu bit th, hay cc ch
cng trnh xy dng cao c.
Phng php ly mu ngu nhin tch t theo chm (cluster) ny c v nh
ng dn i tm lung c trn bin, lc u phi truy lng, theo di sau l lm
th v sa sai lin tc (Trial & Error Method )
Chn mu nhiu giai on (multi-stage sampling):
Phng php ny thng p dng i vi tng th chung c quy m qu ln
v a bn nghin cu qu rng. Vic chn mu phi tri qua nhiu giai on
(nhiu cp). Trc tin phn chia tng th chung thnh cc n v cp I, ri chn
cc n v mu cp I. Tip n phn chia mi n v mu cp I thnh cc n v
cp II, ri chn cc n v mu cp IITrong mi cp c th p dng cc cch
chn mu ngu nhin n gin, chn mu h thng, chn mu phn tng, chn
D Th Chung
74
D Th Chung
75
76
chn mu dn xut hoc pht trin mm, ch c p dng trong nhng cuc iu
tra chuyn bit khi cc phn t ca mu chn rt kh xc nh v tip cn.
4.5. Qui trnh chn mu
Chn mu l qu trnh chn la mt b phn tng i nh t mt tng th
(population) mang tnh cch i din cho tng th nghin cu bao gm 5 bc :
-
Bc 1 : Xc nh tng th nghin cu
Bc 2 : Xc nh khung chn mu
Bc 4 : Quyt nh v qui m ca mu
D Th Chung
77
Thnh, ta phi xin UBND phng cung cp cho danh sch cc h trong a bn
phng, danh sch chnh l khung tng th.
Trong thc t c c khung chn mu khng phi l vn d dng, c
khi nh nghin cu khng th c c mt danh sch lm sn dnh cho nhng
i tng mun kho st. Khi d liu th cp v i tng nghin cu cn hn
ch, xc nh khung chn mu th nh nghin cu cn tin hnh thu thp d
liu cho khung chn mu bng vic phng vn, gn lc i tng. Cng vic ny
tn km rt nhiu thi gian v chi ph. Th d nh khi mun nghin cu nhng
ngi thun tay tri, hay nhng ngi tn tt hay bnh hon c nhu cu cn mua
xe ln tay, khung i tng ny khng c sn do ngi ta phi xc nh khun
kh chung, sau sng lc dn cn c vo gii tnh, tui tc, cm vt dng g
(a, vt, bng bn, bn i, dng xe ln v bm sinh hay tai nn....) ri dn dn lc
ra c chnh xc cc i tng cn nghin cu.
4.5.3. La chn phng php ly mu xc sut hay phi xc sut
- Mu xc sut gip o lng chnh xc sai s chn mu bng ton thng
k..
- Mu phi xc sut kh o lng chnh xc sai s ny.
4.5.4. Xc nh qui m mu
Xc nh qui m mu (c mu) chnh l xc nh s lng n v iu tra
trong tng th mu tin hnh thu thp s liu. Yu cu ca c mu l va
va m bo tin cy cn thit ca s liu iu tra va m bo ph hp vi
iu kin v nhn lc v kinh ph v c th thc hin c, tc l c tnh kh thi.
Vic xc nh qui m mu theo l thuyt l v cng phc tp. Trn thc t
nh nghin cu p dng nhiu cch xc nh mang tnh kh thi hn nh xc nh
c mu theo kinh nghim iu tra thc t. Trong thc t nhiu khi cc chuyn gia
thng k thng cn c vo c mu ca cc cuc iu tra c iu kin v quy m
tng t thc hin thnh cng trc trong nc hoc trn th gii xc
nh c mu cho cuc iu tra sau. C nhiu cch xc nh c mu nhng ph
D Th Chung
78
C C0
Z
Trong :
C - Tng kinh ph c cp;
C0 - Kinh ph chi cho cc khu chun b, tp hun nghip v thu thp, x l
v cc chi ph chung khc;
Z - Chi ph cn thit cho tt c cc khu iu tra tnh cho mt n v iu tra.
Cc xc nh quy m mu khi c lng gi tr tham s trn tng th
chung:
Trng hp gi tr tham s ca tng th l mt s tuyt i:
Thng thng, khi ly mu chng ta cn phi xc nh c mu n l bao nhiu
chng ta c th tnh trung bnh vi mt chnh xc nh trc, chnh xc
c o bng rng ca khong c lng, chnh l lng c cng vo v
tr ra khi trung bnh mu khi tnh gii hn di v trn ca c lng, k hiu l
e. Chng ta cng phi xc nh trc bi ton c lng ny c tin cy n u
v vi thng tin v lch chun ca tng th bit. Chng hn t gi tr trung
bnh ca mu, ta mun c lng gi tr trung bnh ca tng th vi tin cy
D Th Chung
79
z / 2 x
z
x x / 2 x
n
n
Trong : x l trung bnh mu, x l trung bnh tng th, x l lch chun
ca tng th, n l kch thc mu.
T khong c lng trn, ta tnh c :
z / 2 x
n
Vy kch thc n l :
2
z
n / 2 x hay
z2 / 2 2
n
2
Ch :
z 2 / 2 s 2
n
2
D Th Chung
80
N .z2 / 2 s 2
N 2 s 2 z2 / 2
p.q. z2 / 2
2
/2
hay n p.q 2
Ch :
Thng thng ta khng bit c t l p, q ca tng th chung; do
Do tnh cht: p+q=1, do tch p.q s ln nht khi p=q=0,5 => p.q
=0,25 => thay vo cng thc trn xc nh c mu n. Tuy nhin
khi t gi nh ny th quy m mu n s ln nht do tn km chi
ph iu tra.
D Th Chung
Npq. z2 / 2
N 2 p.q. z2 / 2
81
CU HI N TP V THO LUN
D Th Chung
82
CHNG 5
CC PHNG PHP NGHIN CU NH TNH
I. Mc tiu chng 5
Sau khi hc xong chng ny, ngi hc s:
o Hiu c khi nim, ngun gc v vai tr ca nghin cu nh tnh
o C th thit k c cng c thu thp d liu nh tnh
o Bit cc k thut thu thp d liu nh tnh
o Bit cch phn tch d liu nh tnh v vit bo co
II. Ni dung chng
1. Khi nim nghin cu nh tnh
2. Ngun gc nghin cu nh tnh
3. Vai tr ca nghin cu nh tnh
4. Cng c thu thp d liu nh tnh
5. Cc k thut thu thp d liu nh tnh
6. Phn tch d liu nh tnh
III. Ni dung chi tit
5.1 Khi nim
Ngy nay, cc chuyn gia marketing p dng nhiu phng php thu
thp c d liu t th trng, khch hng. Tn dng s pht trin ca cng ngh
thng tin, nh nghin cu c nhiu thun li hn trong vic tp hp v x l d
liu. Thm ch, c cng ty qun l khch hng bng cc thit b radio v lp t
video camera ti nh cho khch hng. Chin lc ny c v hu dng nhm hiu
c khch hng s dng sn phm nh th no, nhng nhng g h thu c ch
l 1 ng bng video. Hay cc siu th c h thng my tnh qun l nhp d liu
D Th Chung
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84
thut c s dng rng ri trong nhiu lnh vc khc nhau, trong c lnh
vc nghin cu marketing.
5.3 Vai tr ca nghin cu nh tnh
Nghin cu nh tnh ng vai tr quan trng trong nghin cu th trng.
Nghin cu nh tnh gip nh nghin cu xc nh cc vn cng nh cc c
hi marketing Ch nghin cu c th mi v cha c xc nh r, nh nghin
cu cn c s linh hot trong hng nghin cu pht hin nhng vn mi v
khm ph su mt ch no . V d nh nghin cu mun bit v hnh vi tiu
dng ca mt th trng no nh phn ng ca h vi mt chng trnh
marketing, th nghim mt qung co hay thay i bao b sn phm c
nhng iu chnh ph hp vi th trng mc tiu.
Kt qu ca cuc nghin cu nh tnh cn gip cho nh nghin cu pht
hin ra nhiu c hi marketing t cc tng ca p vin. Ti P&G, thng tin v
khch hng c xy dng thnh nhng "ngn hng d liu v tng sn phm"
nhm to iu kin cho cng ty pht trin cc sn phm mi. Nhng thng tin ny
bao gm c thng tin v phn ng ca khch hng i vi tng c im c th
ca sn phm. Cc thng tin c th c tng hp thnh mt nhm v so snh
nhm pht trin cc tng v sn phm mi. Khi , cng ty tip tc p dng
cc phng php nh tnh thng qua vic hnh thnh 1 nhm pht trin sn phm
tranh lun nhm tm ra cch thc chuyn cc tng ny thnh sn phm c
th. T kt qu nghin cu mt nhm khch hng, P&G cho ra mt dng sn
phm Pringle vo nm 2004 vi hnh nh v t ng c in trn mi ming khoai
ty gin (cu hi tu t, nh ng vt v c nhng cu chuyn vui). Ngy nay, hn
35% sn phm mi ca hng bt ngun t cc tng ngoi P&G (so vi 15%
nm 2000) v d kin s chim 45% trong nm tip theo. (Larry Huston - Ph
ch tch nghin cu v pht trin v Nabil Sakkab - Ph ch tch cao cp Tp
on Procter&Gamble}
D Th Chung
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D Th Chung
86
V kch thc mu nh, cho nn vic tuyn chn i tng nghin cu,
nht l cho tho lun nhm c vai tr quan trng, nh hng ln n thnh cng
ca cuc nghin cu. Mt s tiu chun c xem xt khi chn mu nh sau:
i tng nghin cu phi thuc vo th trng nghin cu
i tng nghin cu v ngi thn ca h khng lm trong cc lnh vc
khng hp l (banned industries) nh c lin quan n tip th, qung co,
phn phi, bo ch, truyn hnh v trong ngnh ang nghin cu.
i tng khng phi l nhng ngi thng xuyn tham gia cc chng
trnh nghin cu. Thng thng h phi khng tham gia bt k cuc nghin
cu no, thng l trong vng 6 thng n mt nm tr li
5.5 Cng c thu thp d liu nh tnh
thu thp d liu nh tnh, nh nghin cu s dng dn bi tho lun
(discussion guideline) ch khng dng bng cu hi chi tit (questionnaire). Dn
bi tho lun bao gm hai phn chnh. Phn th nht gii thiu mc ch v tnh
cht ca cuc nghin cu. y cng l phn t gii thiu v lm quen vi nhau
gia nhng ngi tham gia tho lun, to bu khng kh thn mt ban u(warm up section). Phn th hai gm cc cu hi nh hng cho qu trnh tho lun.
5.6 Cc k thut thu thp d liu trong nghin cu nh tnh
5.6.1. Phng php quan st (observation):
Quan st l phng php ghi li c kim sot cc s kin hoc cc hnh vi
ng x ca con ngi. Phng php ny thng c dng kt hp vi cc
phng php khc kim tra cho chnh xc ca d liu thu thp.
5.6.1.1 Cc phng php t chc quan st bao gm:
Quan st trc tip v quan st gin tip:
Quan st trc tip l tin hnh quan st khi s kin ang din ra. V d: Quan
st thi ca khch hng khi thng thc cc mn n ca mt nh hng
D Th Chung
87
D Th Chung
88
u im
Thu c chnh xc hnh nh v hnh vi ngi tiu dng v h khng h bit
rng mnh ang b quan st.
Thu c thng tin chnh xc v hnh vi ngi tiu dng trong khi h khng
th no nh c hnh vi ca h mt cch chnh xc. V d mun tm hiu xem
nh mt ngi thng xem nhng i g, tm hiu xem mt ngi ch lm th tc
ngn hng phi mt my ln lic nhn ng h?
Phng php quan st c kt hp vi phng php khc kim tra cho
chnh xc. V d phng php phng vn cung cp cc thng tin v quan nim,
thi , gi tr v hnh vi t thut ca i tng. Cc phng php quan st cung
cp thng tin v hnh vi thc cho php hiu r hn hnh vi c nghin cu.
Nhc im :
Kt qu quan st c khng c tnh i din cho s ng. Khng thu thp
c nhng vn n sau hnh vi c quan st nh ng c, thi l gii
cho cc hnh vi quan st c, ngi nghin cu thng phi suy din ch quan.
5.6.2. Phng vn tay i (individual indepth interview)
Phng vn tay i hay phng vn su l k thut thu thp d liu thng qua
vic tho lun gia hai ngi: nh nghin cu v i tng nghin cu. Phng vn
tay i c s dng trong cc trng hp sau:
Ch nghin cu mang tnh c nhn cao v kh nhy cm, khng thch
hp cho vic tho lun nhm, v d nh ti chnh c nhn, cc phng
php k hoch ha gia nh
Do v tr x hi, ngh nghip ca i tng nghin cu nn kh mi h
tham gia nhm
Do s cnh tranh gia cc i tng nghin cu nn h khng th tham
gia tho lun nhm. V d khng th mi cc gim c ca cc cng ty
D Th Chung
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90
D Th Chung
91
D Th Chung
92
D Th Chung
93
D Th Chung
94
D Th Chung
95
96
97
D Th Chung
98
Chng loi
hng ha
Nhn vin
phc v
Trng by
siu th
Mt bng
siu th
An ton
siu th
CHT LNG
DCH V
SIU TH
Gi
thuyt 2
TRUNG THNH
SIU TH
Gi thuyt 1
GI C
CM NHN
Ngun: Nguyn nh Th, Nguyn Th Mai Trang (2003), o lng cht lng dch v siu th
theo quan im ca khch hng, CS.2003.01.04, TPHCM: Khoa Kinh t, H Quc gia TPHCM
D Th Chung
99
CU HI N TP V THO LUN
1. Trnh by khi nim v vai tr ca nghin cu nh tnh trong nghin cu
Marketing?
2. Nghin cu nh tnh c s dng trong nhng trng hp no? Nghin
cu nh tnh thc hin trc hay sau nghin cu nh lng. Cho v d
3. V sao phi tin hnh quan st? Hy lp mt danh mc quan st hnh vi
khch hng khi h mua sm ti siu th.
4. Trong trng hp no nh nghin cu s dng k thut phng vn tay i,
phng vn nhm? u nhc im ca cc k thut ny.
5. Hy thit k dn bi tho lun nhm dng cho nghin cu khm ph th
trng kem nh rng.
D Th Chung
100
CHNG 6
I.
Mc tiu chng
II.
Ni dung chng
1. Khi nim phng php nghin cu nh lng
2. Vai tr ca nghin cu nh lng
3. So snh nghin cu nh tnh v nghin cu nh lng
4. Cc phng php thu thp d liu nh lng
5. T chc thu thp d liu nh lng
D Th Chung
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103
NH TNH
Cch tip cn
NH LNG
hnh vi
Cu trc cht ch thng qua Linh hot thng qua tho lun
phng vn
Kch thc mu
Ln
Nh
Phng php
Phi xc sut
chn mu
K nng phng Khng i hi k nng cao
i hi k nng cao
vn/tho lun
Thi gian phng Tng i ngn (thng Tng i di( T 90 n 120
vn
D Th Chung
di 45 pht)
pht)
104
D Th Chung
105
D Th Chung
106
D Th Chung
107
108
D Th Chung
109
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110
D Th Chung
111
Tin hnh cc phn tch, khm ph s thay i trong hnh vi tiu dng
Chi ph r hn so vi vic chn mu nhiu ln
Nhc im:
Nhm c nhiu bin ng nh: Khng cn hng th tham gia tip, doanh
nghip ngng hot ng hoc chuyn sang ngnh khc, c nhn chuyn
ch hoc qua i
6.5. T chc thu thp d liu nh lng
C cu t chc ca mt cng ty nghin cu th trng ph thuc vo nhiu
yu t nh loi hnh doanh nghip, quy m cng ty, dng nghin cu m cng ty
thc hin cho khch hng Tuy nhin, khi cng ty tin hnh nghin cu nh
lng th phi c b phn thu thp d liu nh lng. C cu thng thng ca
cng ty nghin cu th trng bao gm cc b phn sau
B phn nghin cu (research department) B phn nghin cu ph
trch hoch nh d n nghin cu: thit k nghin cu, tho lun vi
nh qun tr, thit k bng cu hivv, lm vic vi khch hng nu l
cng ty nghin cu c lp, din gii thng tin v bo co kt qu
nghin cu.
B phn thu thp d liu (Fieldwork Department): Ph trch vic trin
khai thu thp d liu c theo bng cu hi thit k. B phn thu
thp d liu bao gm cc phng vn vin, c tuyn chn v hun
luyn k cng. y l b phn c s lng nhn vin nhiu nht trong
D Th Chung
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113
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114
CU HI N TP V THO LUN
D Th Chung
115
CHNG 7
D Th Chung
116
cho tng kt qu tr li ca cc
cu hi.
7.1.1.2 Phng php la ra v m (Sorting and Counting):
Trc ht, phi la v lc xp ring ra tt c cc bng cu hi hay cc mu
d liu sp thnh tng nhm, mi nhm theo mi loi tr li, sau m mi
nhm.
Phng php ny trnh c kh nng sai st ca phng php kim m
ni trn trong vic nh du d liu tr li. Cch ny c th c thc hin nhanh
hn khi ta c th d dng c v la ra cc cu tr li ging nhau cho tt c cc
cu hi.
X l theo phng php th cng c th p dng cho trng hp s lng
bng cu hi tng i t, ch chng 20 tr li, s cu hi v cu p cng t i v
khng qu phc tp.
7.1.1.3 . Phng php x l bng my vi tnh
Vic dng my tnh x l d liu i hi d liu phi c m ha v
thit k h thng sao cho my c th hiu c theo mt phn mm c lp
trnh trc.
i vi cuc nghin cu c khi lng d liu ln, s bng cu hi t vi
trm tr ln v s lng cu hi p t 20, 30 cu tr ln th nht nh phi s
dng my tnh mi m bo c chnh xc.
D Th Chung
117
Ngoi ra, my tnh cho php ta lm nhng phn tch thng k phc tp, v
cc biu , cht lc ra nhng thng tin quan trng v tin cy hn, lp cc bo co
bng biu c th lu tr, ni mng v truy xut tng phn theo nhu cu ca ngi
c. Nh nghin cu c th s dng cc phn mm trong qu trnh x l d liu,
c bit l khi phi i ph vi mt khi lng ln d liu, kh phc tp v c
tnh cht nh k. Vn l nh nghin cu lun lun cp nht kin thc nm
c nhng chng trnh x l hin i cng ngy cng tin tin hn, v la chn
ci no ph hp nht . Hin nay c rt nhiu phn mm x l d liu nh SPSS,
SAS, AMOSPhn mm ng dng SPSS chy trn Windows (Statistical Package
for Social Sciences for Windows )c s dng rng ri. Trong phm vi mn hc
ny, ch trnh by cc x l d liu bng phn mm SPSS, kt hp vi cc phn
mm khc l Word, Excel trnh by v tm tt d liu.
Cc giai on x l d liu, bao gm:
(1)
Gi tr ha d liu
(2)
(3)
M ha cu tr li
(4)
(5)
Lm sch d liu
(6)
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118
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119
Nhng cu tr li khng y .
Nhng cu tr li khng c c.
7.3. M ha d liu :
M ha d liu l qu trnh lin quan n vic nhn din phn loi mi cu
tr li trn mt k hiu c ch nh. y l mt bc quan trng v vic m ha
d liu ng n, hp l s gip cho my tnh d dng c c d liu v x l
chng theo yu cu ca chng ta.
7.3.1. Cu trc d liu :
Mi bn cu hi c m ha l mt mu tin (record). Mi cu tr li cho
mt cu hi ring bit c gi l bin s (variable). Mt cu hi c th to ra mt
bin s hay nhiu bin s ty theo l cu tr li c mt p ng (single
response) hay c nhiu p ng (multi responses).
C th hnh dung cu trc d liu ny gm nhiu hng v nhiu ct. Mi
hng cha d liu ca mt bn cu hi, trong khi mi ct l mi p ng tr li
D Th Chung
120
121
122
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123
khc gi tr m ha. Sau ti cc bin pht hin sai st, dng lnh Find
tm v tr sai st v tin hnh chnh sa. V d chng ta m ha 1 i din
cho nam, 2 i din cho n, nhng khi chy bng tn s, thu c kt qu
sau, vy chng t c sai st trong nhp liu, thay v g 1 cho gii tnh
nam, ta g ti 2 ln thnh 11
Bng 7.1 Bng m t v mu nghin cu theo gii tnh
Frequency
Valid
Valid
Cumulative
Percent
Percent
Nam
248
49.6
49.6
49.6
251
50.2
50.2
99.8
11
.2
.2
100.0
500
100.0
100.0
Total
Percent
pht hin ra sai st. V d lp bng kt hp gia bin tui v ngh nghip
xem xt s logic. Gi s bng kt qu cho thy c trng hp 45 tui m
ngh nghip tng ng l sinh vin, tc l mt trong 2 bin tui hoc ngh
nghip b nhp sai. Sau khi pht hin li, ta dng lnh Select Cases tm
ra trng hp sai st
7.5. Phn tch v din gii d liu
7.4.1 M t d liu
D Th Chung
124
Tn s tch ly ch r t l % ca tt c quan st c gi tr nh hn gi tr mc
d liu ang xem xt khi d liu c xp theo chiu tng dn
Frequency
D Th Chung
Percent
Valid
Percent
Cumulative
Percent
125
Nam
N
Total
47
53
100
47.0
53.0
100.0
47.0
53.0
100.0
47.0
100.0
Valid
1 - 3 trieu
3 - 5 trieu
5 - 7 trieu
>7 trieu
Total
Frequency
31
45
19
5
100
Percent
31.0
45.0
19.0
5.0
100.0
Valid
Percent
31.0
45.0
19.0
5.0
100.0
Cumulative
Percent
31.0
76.0
95.0
100.0
Valid
18-25
26-35
36-45
46--60
Total
D Th Chung
Frequency
150
140
111
99
500
Percent
30.0
28.0
22.2
19.8
100.0
Valid
Percent
30.0
28.0
22.2
19.8
100.0
Cumulative
Percent
30.0
58.0
80.2
100.0
126
Valid
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
59
60
Total
D Th Chung
Frequency
9
8
16
19
22
26
29
21
15
13
19
16
17
10
18
8
9
15
8
6
16
14
18
10
16
7
6
10
12
7
8
8
12
3
7
4
10
9
4
2
11
2
500
Percent
1.8
1.6
3.2
3.8
4.4
5.2
5.8
4.2
3.0
2.6
3.8
3.2
3.4
2.0
3.6
1.6
1.8
3.0
1.6
1.2
3.2
2.8
3.6
2.0
3.2
1.4
1.2
2.0
2.4
1.4
1.6
1.6
2.4
.6
1.4
.8
2.0
1.8
.8
.4
2.2
.4
100.0
Valid
Percent
1.8
1.6
3.2
3.8
4.4
5.2
5.8
4.2
3.0
2.6
3.8
3.2
3.4
2.0
3.6
1.6
1.8
3.0
1.6
1.2
3.2
2.8
3.6
2.0
3.2
1.4
1.2
2.0
2.4
1.4
1.6
1.6
2.4
.6
1.4
.8
2.0
1.8
.8
.4
2.2
.4
100.0
Cumulative
Percent
1.8
3.4
6.6
10.4
14.8
20.0
25.8
30.0
33.0
35.6
39.4
42.6
46.0
48.0
51.6
53.2
55.0
58.0
59.6
60.8
64.0
66.8
70.4
72.4
75.6
77.0
78.2
80.2
82.6
84.0
85.6
87.2
89.6
90.2
91.6
92.4
94.4
96.2
97.0
97.4
99.6
100.0
127
Mode:
Gi tr c tn s quan st ln nht
Gi tr nh nht
Maximum:
Gi tr ln nht
SE mean:
D Th Chung
128
D Th Chung
129
58
71
68
52
249
23.3%
28.5%
27.3%
20.9%
100.0%
92
69
43
47
251
Tong
Tan so
36.7%
27.5%
17.1%
18.7%
100.0%
% theo cot
150
140
111
99
500
30.0%
28.0%
22.2%
19.8%
100.0%
28
33
30
27
118
23.7%
28.0%
25.4%
22.9%
Ha Noi
N
40
39
22
31
132
30.3%
29.5%
16.7%
23.5%
100.0%
100.0%
Nam
Count o tuoi
Col
%
Tong
o tuoi
Tong
D Th Chung
18-25
26-35
36-45
46--60
18-25
26-35
36-45
46--60
68
72
52
58
250
27.2%
28.8%
20.8%
23.2%
30
38
38
25
131
22.9%
29.0%
29.0%
19.1%
TPHCM
N
52
30
21
16
119
43.7%
25.2%
17.6%
13.4%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
Tong
Nam
Tong
82
68
59
41
250
32.8%
27.2%
23.6%
16.4%
100.0%
130
96%
i m ua sm
96%
95%
i do (i hng m t)
83%
i d tic
79%
50%
i hi hp
41%
41%
D Th Chung
i hc
25%
24%
131
95%
79%
96%
96%
83%
50%
41%
24%
41%
25%
Vy nhn vo hai biu trn, chng ta cng nhn thy rng trng hp
no nn s dng biu thanh ngang v trng hp no s dng thanh ng. R
rng, vi cc mc phn loi pht biu thnh cu di v c nhiu biu hin, chng
ta s thun tin hn nu dng biu thanh ngang, biu thanh ng thch hp
vi cc bin c t phn loi hn. Biu thanh c dng biu hin qu trnh
pht trin, phn nh c cu v thay i c cu hoc so snh cng nh biu hin
mi lin h gia cc hin tng.
Biu hnh trn (Pie Chart)
Biu hnh trn thuc nhm biu din tch. Tng din tch ca c hnh l
100%, th din tch tng phn tng ng vi mi b phn phn nh c cu ca b
phn .
Biu din tch hnh trn cn c th biu hin c c c cu, bin ng c
cu kt hp thay i mc ca hin tng. Trong trng hp ny s o ca gc
cc hnh qut phn nh c cu v bin ng c cu, cn din tch ton hnh trn
phn nh quy m ca hin tng
D Th Chung
132
Kinh t hc
9%
Thng mi
16%
Kinh t hc
9%
Marketing
Marketing
25%
Ti chnh
ngn hng
18%
25%
K ton
Ti chnh ngn hng
Thng mi
32%
18%
16%
K ton
32%
th ng gp khc
th ng gp khc l loi th thng k biu hin cc ti liu bng mt
ng gp khc ni lin cc im trn mt h to , thng l h to vung
gc.
th ng gp khc c dng biu hin qu trnh pht trin ca hin
tng, biu hin tnh hnh phn phi cc n v tng th theo mt tiu thc no ,
hoc biu th tnh hnh thc hin k hoch theo tng thi gian ca cc ch tiu
nghin cu.
Trong mt th ng gp khc, trc honh thng c biu th thi gian,
trc tung biu th mc ca ch tiu nghin cu. Cng c khi cc trc ny biu
th hai ch tiu c lin h vi nhau, hoc lng bin v cc tn s (hay tn sut)
tng ng. phn chia trn cc trc cn c xc nh cho thch hp v c nh
hng trc tip n dc ca th. Mt khc, cn ch l trn mi trc to
chiu di ca cc khong phn chia tng ng vi s thay i v lng ca ch
D Th Chung
133
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Nm
D Th Chung
134
CU HI V THO LUN
1.
V sao phi hiu chnh d liu? Trnh by cc phng php hiu chnh
d liu bng SPSS
2.
3.
Hy m ha cc cu hi sau y?
5.
D Th Chung
135
D Th Chung
136
CHNG 8
Mc tiu chng
II.
137
D Th Chung
138
Bn cht ca Ho
thuyt khng Ho
Ho ng
Ho sai
Khng bc b
Quyt nh ng
Sai lm loi II
(chp nhn)
Prob = 1-
Prob =
Sai lm loi I
Quyt nh ng
Prob =
Prob = 1
Bc b
( = mc ngha ca kim nh
D Th Chung
139
(3) Bc 3: Xc nh mc ngha
(4) Bc 4: Chn cc tham s thng k thch hp cho vic kim nh v xc
nh cc min bc b, min chp nhn v gi tr gii hn.
(5) Bc 5: Tnh ton cc gi tr ca cc tham s thng k trong vic kim nh
da trn s hiu ca mu ngu nhin.
(6) Bc 6: Ra quyt nh: Nu cc gi tr tnh ton ri vo min bc b Ho th
ra quyt nh bc b Ho. Ngc li s chp nhn Ho.
Nh c cng c h tr SPSS, chng ta c th thc hin kim nh nhanh chng v
d dng qua cc bc sau y:
-
Bc 2: t gi thuyt
H0: khng .
H1: c
Bc 4: c s Sig v so snh vi s
Nu Sig. >= => chp nhn Ho
Nu Sig. < => bc b Ho
140
D Th Chung
141
Bng 8.2
gii tnh
Nam
Gia nh
Quan tam nh
% within Gia
nh
Count
Quan tam ba
% within Gia
nh
Count
% within Gia
nh
Count
Total
% within Gia
nh
Bng 8.3
Total
N
9
13
22
40.9%
59.1%
100.0%
27
31
58
46.6%
53.4%
100.0%
25
22
47
53.2%
46.8%
100.0%
61
66
127
48.0%
52.0%
100.0%
Chi-Square Tests
Value
Pearson Chi-Square
Asymp. Sig.
(2-sided)
df
.999(a)
.607
1.002
.606
Linear-by-Linear Association
.989
.320
N of Valid Cases
127
Continuity Correction
Likelihood Ratio
a 0 cells (.0%) have expected count less than 5. The minimum expected count is 10.57.
D Th Chung
142
8.3
Hon ton
ng
5
Sau khi thu thp d liu, chng ta mun kim nh xem trung bnh ca bin ny c
bng hay khc 3 (3 l mt gi tr mun kim nh). Tin hnh trn SPSS, thu c
kt qu sau:
Bng 8.3 Kt qu kim nh t vi SPSS
D Th Chung
143
a)Tm tt
One-Sample Statistics
N
Nhan hieu c nhieu
ngi a thch
100
Std.
Deviation
Mean
3.86
.792
Std. Error
Mean
.079
b) Kt qu kim nh
One-Sample Test
Test Value = 3
Sig. (2tailed)
Df
Mean
Difference
95% Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower
10.864
99
.000
.86
.70
Upper
1.02
Kt qu trong bng trn cho ta thy, gi tr trung bnh ca bin trn l 3.86.
Gi tr Sig. = 0. Nh vy, trung bnh ca bin kim nh khc vi 3. Nhn vo
khong tin cy ca c lng (95%), chng ta thy gi tr thp nht ca m ng
th trng l 3.7 (3+0.7) v gi tr ln nht l 4.02 (3+1.02). Vy ta kt lun gi tr
trung bnh ca bin trn ln hn 3.
8.3.2. Kim nh gi thuyt v s bng nhau v trung bnh ca hai tng th
8.3.2.1 Trng hp hai mu c lp (s dng gm 1 bin nh lng v 1 bin
nh tnh c 2 phn loi)
Khi mun so snh tr trung bnh v mt ch tiu nghin cu no gia 2
i tng ta quan tm, chng ta s dng php kim nh trung bnh t cho 2 mu
c lp, c gi tt l kim nh trung bnh hai mu c lp (Independentsamples T-test). Kim nh ny dng cho hai mu c lp, dng d liu l dng
thang o khong cch hoc t l (bin nh lng) tnh trung bnh v 1 bin
nh tnh dng phn loi nhm so snh.
D Th Chung
144
Hoc chia mu thnh 2 nhm ln: nhm trnh ph thng v nhm trn
ph thng bng cch dng Cut Point trong Define Group. M s nhp vo
Cut Point l m s dng chia mu thnh 2 nhm ln. Trong v d trn
s 4 s c nhp vo Cut Point
D Th Chung
145
Thai o vi
quang cao
gii tnh
Nam
N
N
47
53
Mean
3.13
3.60
Std.
Std. Error
Deviation
Mean
1.227
.179
.947
.130
D Th Chung
146
1.567
Sig.
.214
-2.185
-2.152
98
86.197
Sig. (2-tailed)
.031
.034
Mean Difference
-.48
-.48
.218
.221
-.909
-.916
-.044
-.036
Df
95%
Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower
Upper
147
Rt thch
2. Sn phm B
Rt khng thch
Rt thch
Sau khi thu thp, nhp d liu v tin hnh kim nh bng SPSS, kt qu c
th hin bng sau:
Bng 8.5. Kt qu kim nh trung bnh, trng hp mu cp
Paired Samples Statistics
Mean
Pair 1
San
D Th Chung
3.42
N
100
Std.
Deviation
Std. Error
Mean
1.174
.117
148
3.50
100
1.000
.100
Pair 1
San pham A
- San pham B
Paired
Differences
Mean
Std. Deviation
-.08
.961
.096
95%
Confidence
Interval of the
Difference
Lower
-.27
Upper
T
Df
Sig. (2-tailed)
.11
-.833
99
.407
149
150
18-25
N
Mean
Std. Deviation
Std. Error
95%
Confidence
Interval for
Mean
Minimum
Maximum
Lower Bound
Upper Bound
26-35
36-45
46--60
Total
150
5.89
140
5.82
111
5.53
99
5.34
500
5.68
1.272
1.431
1.381
1.255
1.352
.104
5.68
.121
5.58
.131
5.27
.126
5.09
.060
5.56
6.09
6.06
5.79
5.59
5.80
1
7
1
7
1
7
1
7
1
7
Co tnh yeu
Levene Statistic
df1
df2
1.607
Sig.
.187
496
c) ANOVA
Co tnh yeu
Sum of
Squares
Between
Groups
Within
Groups
Total
Mean
Square
df
22.866
7.622
889.572
496
1.793
912.438
499
F
4.250
Sig.
.006
D Th Chung
151
D Th Chung
152
CU HI V THO LUN
1. Gi thuyt thng k l g? V sao phi kim nh gi thuyt thng k
2. Cho bit s ging nhau v khc nhau trong 2 phng php kim
nh t (cho mu cp v cho mu c lp). Hy thit k hai nghin
cu trong c s dng hai phng php kim nh ny khi phn
tch d liu
3. Trong d n nghin cu m nhm anh (ch) chn trong chng 1,
hy trnh by cc phng php kim nh m cc anh(ch) d kin s
thc hin.
D Th Chung
153
CHNG 9
BO CO KT QU NGHIN CU
I. Mc tiu chng
Chng ny gip cho sinh vin
-
Nm c cc nguyn tc vit bo co
154
D Th Chung
155
156
D Th Chung
157
lm long i phn chng ta ang trnh by. Ph lc gip ngi c b sung thm
nhng thng tin gc vi chi tit, y hn.
10. Th mc hoc ti liu tham kho (Bibliography) :
Lit k nhng ti liu tham kho vit bo co. iu ny chng t tnh
khoa hc v tinh thn nghin cu nghim tc ca ngi vit bo co.
Nhng ni dung bo co dnh cho lnh o trn y c th l mt mu mc
p dng cho cc lun vn hay lun n tt nghip ca cc th sinh bc c nhn hoc
cao hn theo mt tiu chun quc t va c tnh cch khoa hc li c tnh cch
thuyt phc cao.
9.4 Cc nguyn tc khi son tho bo co nghin cu
Ngi c bn bo co m ta t trng tm l cc nh lnh o cng ty, gim
c tip th, cc thnh vin trong hi ng qun tr. Do ngi trnh by bo co
phi nm r c im ca tng loi i tng c hoc nghe c nhng cch
trnh by thch hp v thuyt phc.
Cch bo co i vi cc nhm i tng sau :
1. Nhm c nh kin sn: S bt u kha cnh h quan tm nht.
2. Nhm hay do d, thiu lp trng: Bo co y tnh hnh nh c th, thc
t, mu sc v sinh ng
3. Nhm ngi c c phn tch v ph phn :Bo co ch trng v lp lun
phng php phn tch d liu, tnh h thng trong din t.
4. Ngi c c tng hp nhanh: Bo co ch trng ct li ca vn , khng
phn tch di dng
9.4.1. Nhng nguyn tc vit bo co.
C 7 nguyn tc chnh :
- R rng.
D Th Chung
158
D Th Chung
159
D Th Chung
160
9.5.3 Giai on tr li
-
D Th Chung
161
CU HI V THO LUN
1. Trnh by cc nguyn tc vit bo co nghin cu. Ni dung ca bn bo
co dnh cho nh qun tr gm nhng ni dung no?
2. Khi trnh by bo co trc nh qun tr, ngi trnh by cn ch nhng
g?
3. Gi s anh (ch) l mt nh qun tr hoc mt khch hng thu dch v
nghin cu, theo anh (ch) lm th no c th nh gi bo co kt qu
nghin cu.
4. Thc hnh vit bo co nghin cu cho nghin cu m nhm anh (ch)
chn chng 1.
D Th Chung
162