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MATH 314 Problem Set 2

2.IfAandBaredisjointeventsandPr(B)>0,whatisthevalueofPr(A|B)?
4.Eachtimeashopperpurchasesatubeoftoothpaste,hechooseseitherbrandAorbrandB.Supposethatforeach
purchaseafterthefirst,theprobabilityis1/3thathewillchoosethesamebrandthathechoseonhisprecedingpurchase
andtheprobabilityis2/3thathewillswitchbrands.IfheisequallylikelytochooseeitherbrandAorbrandBonhisfirst
purchase,whatistheprobabilitythatbothhisfirstandsecondpurchaseswillbebrandAandbothhisthirdandfourth
purchaseswillbebrandB?
6.Aboxcontainsthreecards.Onecardisredonbothsides,onecardisgreenonbothsides,andonecardisredonone
sideandgreenontheother.Onecardisselectedfromtheboxatrandom,andthecolorononesideisobserved.Ifthisside
isgreen,whatistheprobabilitythattheothersideofthecardisalsogreen?
12.For3eventsA,BandDsuchthatPr(D)>0,provethatPr(AB|D)=Pr(A|D)+Pr(B|D)Pr(AB|D).
14.Amachineproducesdefectivepartswiththreedifferentprobabilitiesdependingonitsstateofrepair.Ifthemachineis
ingoodworkingorder,itproducesdefectivepartswithprobability0.02.Ifitiswearingdown,itproducesdefectiveparts
withprobability0.1.Ifitneedsmaintenance,itproducesdefectivepartswithprobability0.3.Theprobabilitythatthe
machineisingoodworkingorderis0.8,theprobabilitythatitiswearingdownis0.1,andtheprobabilitythatitneeds
maintenanceis0.1.Computetheprobabilitythatarandomlyselectedpartwillbedefective.
2.AssumingthatAandBareindependentevents,provethattheeventsA candBcarealsoindependent.
8.Ifthreebalanceddicearerolled,whatistheprobabilitythatallthreenumberswillbethesame?
10.Theprobabilitythatanychildinacertainfamilywillhaveblueeyesis1/4,andthisfeatureisinheritedindependently
bydifferentchildreninthefamily.Ifthereare5childreninthefamilyanditisknownthatatleast1ofthesechildrenhas
blueeyes,whatistheprobabilitythatatleast3ofthechildrenhaveblueeyes?
16.IntheWorldSeriesofbaseball,teamsAandBplayasequenceofgamesagainsteachother,andthefirstteamthat
winsatotaloffourgamesbecomesthewinneroftheWorldSeries.IftheprobabilitythatteamAwillwinanyparticular
gameagainstteamBis1/3,whatistheprobabilitythatteamAwillwintheWorldSeries?
4.Anewtesthasbeendevisedfordetectingaparticulartypeofcancer.Ifthetestisappliedtoapersonwhohasthistype
ofcancer,theprobabilitythatthepersonwillhaveapositivereactionis0.95andtheprobabilitythatthepersonwillhave
anegativereactionis0.05.Ifthetestisappliedtoapersonwhodoesnothavethistypeofcancer,theprobabilitythatthe
personwillhaveapositivereactionis0.05andtheprobabilitythatthepersonwillhaveanegativereactionis0.95.
Supposethatinthegeneralpopulation,onepersonoutofevery100,000peoplehasthistypeofcancer.Ifaperson
selectedatrandomhasapositivereactiontothetest,whatistheprobabilitythathehasthistypeofcancer?
6.Supposethatwhenamachineisadjustedproperly,50percentoftheitemsproducedbyitareofhighqualityandthe
other50percentareofmediumquality.Suppose,however,thatthemachineisimproperlyadjustedduring10percentof
thetimeandthat,undertheseconditions,25percentoftheitemsproducedbyitareofhighqualityand75percentareof
mediumquality.
a.

Supposethat5itemsproducedbythemachineatacertaintimeareselectedatrandomandinspected.If4oftheseitems
areofhighqualityand1itemisofmediumquality,whatistheprobabilitythatthemachinewasadjustedproperlyatthat
time?

b.

Supposethat1additionalitem,whichwasproducedbythemachineatthesametimeastheother5items,isselectedand
foundtobeofmediumquality.Whatisthenewposteriorprobabilitythatthemachinewasadjustedproperly?
18.Acertaingrouphas8members.InJanuary,3membersareselectedatrandomtoserveonacommittee.InFebruary,4

membersareselectedatrandomandindependentlyofthefirstselectiontoserveonanothercommittee.InMarch,5
membersareselectedatrandomandindependentlyoftheprevioustwoselectionstoserveonathirdcommittee.
Determinetheprobabilitythateachofthe8membersservesonatleast1ofthe3committees.
28.Supposethatafaircoinistossedindependentlyntimes.Determinetheprobabilityofobtainingexactlyn1heads,
given(a)thatatleastn2headsareobtainedand(b)thatheadsareobtainedonthefirstn2tosses.