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2015

14 2015, ....

[1]

.1

2020 2030




.
2020
20%, 1990.
2020
20%,
20%
.
, ... 18%
2020 2009/28.
, 3851/2010,
2020, :
...

20%

...

40%

...

10%


...

20%


2020
2030 40% 1990,
27%
.
2050,
2050
80% 1990.

.2

, :

(>70%)

[2]

(
,
50% )

()

,
,

.

.1


,
.


( )

.

.

.

2 . ,
2014 :

[3]

2014
( 31/12/2014)-

(MW)

(GWh)

(m)

(/Wh)

/2012

MYHE

220

701

61,8

88,2

103%

/B ()

2.596

3.829

1.263,1

329,9

169%

( )

/ ()

2.221

3.322

1.042,6

313,8

179%

/ ()

375

507

220,5

434,9

126%

1.978

3.689

335,4

90,9

113%

(+ M)
/

47

207

21,6

104,3

104%

229

1275

63,2

160,9

254%

5.070

9.701

1.745,1

179,9

139%

, ,
.

, 2014 ,
:

[4]

39,0%
, 38,0%%
19,2% .

, 51,2%
, 39,5%%
72,4% .

, ,
5,3% ,
9,4%
4,8% .


,
,
.
.


, ,
179,9 /MWh:
o

/ 183,4%

[5]

50,5 %

49,0% 58,0%
.

,

.
, ,
,
/ (capacity factor) 22,3%, 16,9%
36% 50% ( 2014).
, kWh, :

0,71 kW /
0,44 kW /
0,22-0,28 kW ,

&
.

, /
.
2014 22,3%.

[6]

, 2015 (
) 5.191 MW
.
165,6 /MWh,
2015
24,0% .

2015
( 30/09/2015)-

(MW)

(GWh)

(m)


(/Wh)


/2012

MYHE

224

566

49,3

87,1

105%

/B ()

2.603

3.088

938,3

303,9

169%

( )

/ ()

2.228

2.732

798,6

292,3

180%

/ ()

375

356

139,7

392,4

126%

(+ M)

2.084

3.381

302,0

89,3

119%

50

164

17,0

103,7

111%

230

972

46,5

155,9

256%

5.191

8.171

1.353,1

165,6

143%

[7]

.2

2010


... 2011-2015,
2020,
19598/1-10-2010.

[8]

, 2020,
,
.
:


2020

...

[9]

.3

, 2013-2014


(GWh) :
/

2013

2014

(GW)

(GWh)

(GW)

(GWh)

4,46

23.230,6

4,46

22.708,6

2,45

4.375,8

2,45

4.521,1

4,91

11.095,7

4,91

6.339,3

&B

0,05

210,0

0,05

207,0

3,02

5.640,0

3,17

3.906,0

0,22

772,0

0,22

701,0

1,81

4.139,0

1,98

3.689,0

2,58

3.648,0

2,60

3.829,0

0,22

1.173,0

0,229

1.275,0

1.888,0

8.707,7

19,71

56.172,1

20,05

55.883,6

( /)

4,88

9.942,0

5,07

9.701,0

( /)

7,90

15.582,0

8,24

13.607,0

40,1%

27,7%

41,1%

24,3%

.
: , ,

24-27%.

/ 14,5
GWh .

/

( , ).

2014 16%
, 3,5% 2013
/.

/ 18,8%
22,5%.


,
.
()

[10]

:



.
15-30% .
2020
.
166 /MWh,
.

.4
2030

2020



,
40% 2020 55% 2030.
2020 2030
:

2020

2030

() (TWh) ()

53,5

59,5

40%

55%

(TWh)

21,4

32,7

(TWh)

14,5

14,5

(TWh)

6,9

18,2

( /)

( 2015) 5,2 GW
10 TWh, ~23%.

~23,5%, ~17%, -~40-50%, ~60%.

2020 2030,

:

[11]



2020



2030

17%

~4,63 GW

~12,24 GW

23%

~3,42 GW

~9,05 GW

40%

~1,97 GW

~5,2 GW


&
, :
)
.
) () .
)
,
.

:
o

/ 3,4 GW 2020 8,4 GW


2030 ( 5 GW 2020), (
/) 5,2 GW 8,6 GW 2020 13,6 GW 2030.
700 MW
2020,
,
2020.

[12]

.1


, 1.1.2016
...
...
Feed-in Premium (FIP) (premium) ,
1.1.2017, .
:

2020
2030 2050
.


(
)


,

.



( , ,
)
(merit order effect),
, 2014,
...

,
(slide premium)
(variable feed-in premium with one-way payments),
(reference price)
,
, ,
.4254/2014.

[13]


<500 kW
FIT 0,5-1,0 MW
01.01.2017
.
,
FIT.
,
(FiP).

.2


(Target model)



, 20.
(2016)


, ,

(-).

, , .

.3

.

(FiT).

.


, ,
, (), , .

[14]

.4

...
, ,
, , ,
, . ,
2,5 .
2030

,
(,
)
.

.5




.
,

.
:

(FiT).

... 31.12.2015
(PPA)
, FIT.



,

.

[15]

.6

premium

...
... ,
.
.


()
30%. , -

,

( ) .

.



(

).

, .

(. premium) .

... ...,

.
premium ,

...

.
,
...,
...

[16]

.7


9
), 2017.
.
,

.
,
, .

.
,
,
.


.

.
strike price

strike price.

.

.
()
.
.
Pay as Clear (PAC)
Pay as Bid (PAB), ,
, .

.1


,
(IRR, NPV)

[17]

,
FiT N4254_ 85_07.04.2014 (New Deal)
( ,
, )
4 .

(MW)
(/kW)
(% )
Capacity factor (%)
(kWh/kW)
(/MWh)
(%)
(%)
(%)

(%)
()
(%)
(%)
()
(%)

% (% )
(%)




( . )

2014 (New Deal)


<20
>20
2
2
2500
2100
3,1%
3,4%
38,5%
36,0%
3372,6
3153,6
105
105
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
5.000.000
4.200.000
7%
7%
10
10
26%
26%
10%
10%
20
20
0%
0%
5%
5%
0%
0%
3%
3%
1%
1%
80%
80%
1
1
8%
8%
0%
0%

2016
<20
>20
2
2
2500
2100
3,1%
3,4%
38,5%
36,0%
3372,6
3153,6
105
105
0%
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
5.000.000 4.200.000
7%
7%
10
10
29%
29%
10%
10%
20
20
0%
0%
5%
5%
0%
0%
3%
3%
1%
1%
100%
100%
4
4
8%
8%
0,8%
0,8%

IRR ( )
IRR ( )
NPV
(/MWh)

6,20%
4,95%
-1.015.550
116,8

5,57%
4,41%
-1.234.370
119

7,39%
6,08%
-549.379
107,4

6,64%
5,43%
-761.652
109,4

[18]