CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Iowa
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

1252 Registered Voters
December 14-17, 2015

±5.3%

1. Do you feel America is generally becoming a safer and more secure country, or a more
dangerous and insecure country?
Safer and more secure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
More dangerous and insecure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 75%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%

2. Do you feel the American economy is moving more toward a system that benefits you, or
more toward a system that makes things harder for you?
Benefits you . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Makes things harder for you . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .66%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22%

3. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .53%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Don’t know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

4. In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential caucus?
Democratic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Don’t know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
5. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus
in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Jim Gilmore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Lindsey Graham . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
George Pataki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0%

6. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus
in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Hillary Clinton . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .50%
Martin O’Malley . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Bernie Sanders . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1%

7. Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Very strong – I’ve decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31%
Strong – I probably won’t change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42%
Somewhat strong – I might still change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Not too strong – I’ll probably keep looking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
8. How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Enthusiastic about [Candidate Name] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57%
Supporting [Candidate Name] but with some reservations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%
Considering [Candidate Name] mainly because you dislike the other choices so
far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

9. Are you discussing the Presidential race with friends and family these days, either in person
or online?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Yes, and I’m telling people why they should vote for [Candidate Name] too 42%
Yes, but I don’t always mention my support for [Candidate Name] . . . . . . . .46%
No, not discussing it much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%

10. For each candidate, please check the box if the phrase describes them. Check all that
apply.
Asked of Republican primary voters

Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz

Electable
41%
35%
50%
63%

Someone I
can relate to
28%
53%
32%
46%

Prepared
29%
22%
48%
61%

Effective
42%
25%
36%
55%

11. Which of these has impacted your vote choice recently? Check all that apply.
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

How candidates performed at debates . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%
How candidates reacted to news events . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54%
How candidates handled interviews, speeches, and TV appearances . . . . 75%
Seeing or meeting the candidates in person in [state] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .25%

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
12. Which of these is most important to your vote right now, a candidate’s views on...
Asked of Republican primary voters

The economy and jobs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%
National security and terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61%
Matters of faith and religious values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%

13. Whether or not you agree, do the things Donald Trump says generally make you...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Glad someone says them, they need to be said and discussed . . . . . . . . . . 74%
Unhappy someone says them, they don’t belong in a Presidential campaign
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Don’t care either way . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

14. Even though you are supporting Hillary Clinton, how would you describe your view of what
Bernie Sanders is saying in the campaign?
Asked of Clinton supporters

I generally like what Bernie Sanders is saying, but I like Hillary Clinton better
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78%
I generally do not like what Bernie Sanders is saying . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
I haven’t heard enough from Bernie Sanders yet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%

15. Even though you are supporting Bernie Sanders, how would you describe your view of
what Hillary Clinton is saying in the campaign?
Asked of Sanders supporters

I generally like what Hillary Clinton is saying, but I like Bernie Sanders better
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74%
I generally do not like what Hillary Clinton is saying . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
I haven’t heard enough from Hillary Clinton yet . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
16. Do you think Bernie Sanders has been too critical of Hillary Clinton, not critical enough, or
has his approach been about right?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Too critical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Not critical enough . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
About right . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .81%

17. Do you think Hillary Clinton has been too critical of Bernie Sanders, not critical enough, or
has her approach been about right?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Too critical . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Not critical enough . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
About right . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84%

18. Do you think the U.S. should temporarily ban Muslims from other countries from entering
the United States, or not?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Should ban . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50%
Should not ban . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50%

19. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?⇤
Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .18%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43%

20. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?*
Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%

Questions marked with an asterisk are only asked for respondents who had not answered in previous waves.
Earlier responses were used where available.

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
21. Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?*
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
Very Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

22. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?
Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%

23. Are you male or female?
Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50%

24. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
25. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?
White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 95%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%

26. What is the highest level of education you have completed?
HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa
1. Safety and Security
Do you feel America is generally becoming a safer and more secure country, or a more dangerous and insecure country?
Gender
Safer and more secure
More dangerous and insecure
Neither
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

6%
75%
19%

7%
71%
22%

4%
79%
17%

9%
76%
15%

5%
75%
21%

5%
73%
21%

4%
79%
17%

5%
76%
19%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,252)

(632)

(620)

(194)

(208)

(545)

(305)

(1,192)

(14)

(9)

(38)

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

2. Trend of Economy
Do you feel the American economy is moving more toward a system that benefits you, or more toward a system that makes things harder for you?
Gender
Benefits you
Makes things harder for you
Neither
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

12%
66%
22%

11%
67%
22%

12%
66%
22%

18%
64%
18%

10%
68%
23%

10%
68%
22%

12%
65%
23%

11%
67%
22%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,249)

(630)

(619)

(194)

(208)

(544)

(303)

(1,189)

(14)

(9)

(38)

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

3. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential caucus in Iowa?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Don’t know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

53%
14%
8%
8%
12%
4%

52%
16%
10%
5%
15%
3%

54%
13%
7%
10%
10%
6%

50%
21%
10%
0%
14%
6%

44%
13%
18%
9%
5%
10%

56%
14%
6%
10%
13%
0%

57%
11%
5%
7%
15%
6%

53%
14%
8%
8%
12%
4%
















100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,252)

(632)

(620)

(194)

(208)

(545)

(305)

(1,192)

(14)

(9)

(38)

3

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

4. 2016 Primary Turnout
In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential caucus?
Gender
Democratic
Republican
Neither
Don’t know
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

33%
34%
19%
14%

29%
38%
18%
16%

37%
31%
20%
12%

30%
31%
16%
23%

29%
36%
12%
23%

33%
34%
20%
12%

36%
35%
23%
6%

33%
34%
20%
14%










100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(1,252)

(632)

(620)

(194)

(208)

(545)

(305)

(1,192)

(14)

(9)

(38)

4

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

5. First Choice Republican Candidate
Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

2%
6%
1%
40%
2%
0%
0%
2%
1%
0%
2%
12%
1%
31%
0%

2%
5%
0%
43%
1%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
1%
15%
1%
29%
1%

3%
8%
1%
36%
3%
0%
0%
4%
1%
0%
3%
8%
0%
32%
1%

3%
5%
0%
42%
1%
0%
0%
0%
6%
0%
4%
10%
0%
28%
1%

3%
14%
0%
37%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3%
6%
1%
30%
1%

3%
7%
1%
36%
1%
0%
0%
4%
0%
0%
2%
13%
0%
32%
1%

1%
2%
0%
49%
2%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
0%
13%
1%
30%
0%

3%
6%
1%
41%
2%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
2%
12%
1%
31%
1%











































100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(533)

(305)

(228)

(56)

(89)

(245)

(143)

(504)

(0)

(11)

(18)

5

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

6. First Choice Democratic Candidate
Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Gender
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

50%
4%
45%
1%

44%
8%
47%
1%

54%
2%
44%
1%

28%
1%
71%
0%

54%
0%
46%
0%

50%
5%
44%
1%

59%
7%
33%
1%

49%
4%
46%
1%










100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(456)

(182)

(275)

(67)

(71)

(197)

(121)

(439)

(11)

(0)

(5)

6

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

7. Republican Candidate Support
Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

31%
42%
25%
2%

35%
39%
22%
4%

25%
45%
28%
2%

14%
50%
15%
20%

33%
49%
17%
0%

32%
39%
28%
1%

33%
37%
27%
2%

31%
43%
22%
3%










100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(528)

(303)

(225)

(55)

(88)

(243)

(142)

(499)

(0)

(11)

(18)

7

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

8. Enthusiasm for First Choice
How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

57%
37%
5%

55%
39%
6%

59%
36%
5%

64%
25%
11%

68%
24%
8%

48%
48%
5%

63%
36%
1%

58%
38%
4%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(453)

(180)

(273)

(67)

(71)

(195)

(120)

(436)

(11)

(0)

(5)

8

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

9. Talk About Republican Choice with Network
Are you discussing the Presidential race with friends and family these days, either in person or online?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Yes, and I’m telling people why they
should vote for [Candidate Name] too
Yes, but I don’t always mention my
support for [Candidate Name]
No, not discussing it much
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

42%

49%

32%

33%

43%

50%

29%

43%

46%
12%

43%
8%

51%
17%

63%
3%

47%
10%

40%
9%

50%
21%

45%
12%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(526)

(303)

(224)

(55)

(88)

(242)

(142)

(497)

(0)

(11)

(18)

9

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

10. Republican Candidate Characteristics – Donald Trump
For each candidate, please check the box if the phrase describes them. Check all that apply.
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Electable
Someone I can relate to
Prepared
Effective
Totals

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

41%
28%
29%
42%

48%
33%
37%
46%

31%
23%
18%
37%

28%
6%
50%
38%

45%
24%
24%
45%

39%
31%
32%
48%

45%
36%
18%
32%

42%
29%
30%
42%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(505)










(0)

(11)

(18)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

11. Republican Candidate Characteristics – Ben Carson
For each candidate, please check the box if the phrase describes them. Check all that apply.
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Electable
Someone I can relate to
Prepared
Effective
Totals

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

35%
53%
22%
25%

38%
56%
21%
25%

32%
48%
24%
25%

44%
54%
41%
35%

47%
46%
24%
29%

35%
51%
21%
20%

27%
58%
16%
27%

36%
53%
23%
25%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(505)










(0)

(11)

(18)

11

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

12. Republican Candidate Characteristics – Marco Rubio
For each candidate, please check the box if the phrase describes them. Check all that apply.
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Electable
Someone I can relate to
Prepared
Effective
Totals

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

50%
32%
48%
36%

53%
32%
51%
35%

47%
33%
45%
36%

44%
32%
66%
50%

48%
19%
34%
20%

51%
38%
48%
35%

54%
30%
51%
41%

51%
33%
50%
37%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(505)










(0)

(11)

(18)

12

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

13. Republican Candidate Characteristics – Ted Cruz
For each candidate, please check the box if the phrase describes them. Check all that apply.
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Electable
Someone I can relate to
Prepared
Effective
Totals

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

63%
46%
61%
55%

70%
50%
64%
58%

54%
41%
56%
50%

66%
49%
84%
73%

75%
38%
64%
52%

56%
53%
64%
56%

67%
38%
44%
49%

65%
45%
60%
54%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(505)










(0)

(11)

(18)

13

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

14. Impact on Vote Choice
Which of these has impacted your vote choice recently? Check all that apply.
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
How candidates performed at debates
How candidates reacted to news
events
How candidates handled interviews,
speeches, and TV appearances
Seeing or meeting the candidates in
person in [state]
Totals

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

48%

51%

46%

54%

50%

51%

39%

47%

54%

57%

51%

67%

57%

53%

49%

55%

75%

77%

73%

80%

69%

78%

72%

76%

25%

25%

25%

34%

20%

28%

18%

25%

(993)

(487)

(506)

(124)

(160)

(443)

(266)

(947)

(11)

(11)

(23)

14

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

15. Most Important to Republican Choice
Which of these is most important to your vote right now, a candidate’s views on...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
The economy and jobs
National security and terrorism
Matters of faith and religious values
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

18%
61%
21%

23%
59%
18%

10%
64%
26%

15%
36%
50%

22%
53%
25%

20%
60%
19%

12%
77%
11%

18%
62%
21%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(505)

(0)

(11)

(18)

15

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

16. Trump Statements
Whether or not you agree, do the things Donald Trump says generally make you...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Gender
Glad someone says them, they need
to be said and discussed
Unhappy someone says them, they
don’t belong in a Presidential
campaign
Don’t care either way
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

74%

79%

68%

40%

69%

78%

85%

75%

21%
5%

16%
4%

27%
6%

58%
2%

18%
13%

17%
6%

14%
0%

20%
5%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(505)

(0)

(11)

(18)

16

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

17. Clinton Supporters’ View of Sanders
Even though you are supporting Hillary Clinton, how would you describe your view of what Bernie Sanders is saying in the campaign?
Asked of Clinton supporters

Gender
I generally like what Bernie Sanders is
saying, but I like Hillary Clinton better
I generally do not like what Bernie
Sanders is saying
I haven’t heard enough from Bernie
Sanders yet
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

78%

86%

74%

87%

78%

79%

12%

3%

16%

6%

20%

12%

10%

11%

10%

7%

2%

9%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(80)

(147)

100%

(228)

(99)

(71)

(215)

(19)

(38)

(10)

(0)

(3)

17

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

18. Sanders Supporters’ View of Clinton
Even though you are supporting Bernie Sanders, how would you describe your view of what Hillary Clinton is saying in the campaign?
Asked of Sanders supporters

Gender
I generally like what Hillary Clinton is
saying, but I like Bernie Sanders
better
I generally do not like what Hillary
Clinton is saying
I haven’t heard enough from Hillary
Clinton yet
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

74%

77%

73%

66%

74%

21%

14%

27%

28%

22%

4%

10%

0%

7%

4%

100%

100%

100%
(121)

100%

(86)

100%

(207)

(48)

(32)

(86)

(40)

(203)

(2)

(0)

(2)

18

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

19. Sanders Critical of Clinton
Do you think Bernie Sanders has been too critical of Hillary Clinton, not critical enough, or has his approach been about right?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Gender
Too critical
Not critical enough
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

10%
9%
81%

5%
13%
82%

13%
6%
81%

7%
11%
83%

12%
6%
82%

11%
11%
77%

8%
5%
87%

10%
8%
82%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(456)

(181)

(275)

(67)

(71)

(196)

(121)

(439)

(11)

(0)

(5)

19

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

20. Clinton Critical of Sanders
Do you think Hillary Clinton has been too critical of Bernie Sanders, not critical enough, or has her approach been about right?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Gender
Too critical
Not critical enough
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

12%
4%
84%

10%
4%
86%

14%
3%
83%

23%
1%
76%

11%
4%
86%

14%
5%
81%

4%
3%
93%

13%
4%
84%







100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(450)

(176)

(274)

(67)

(71)

(192)

(119)

(433)

(11)

(0)

(5)

20

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa

21. Ban Muslims from Entering US
Do you think the U.S. should temporarily ban Muslims from other countries from entering the United States, or not?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters

Gender
Should ban
Should not ban
Totals
(Weighted N)

Age group

Race/Ethnicity

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

White

Black

Hispanic

Other

50%
50%

55%
45%

45%
55%

23%
77%

50%
50%

56%
44%

54%
46%

50%
50%




100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(978)

(482)

(496)

(121)

(160)

(431)

(266)

(933)

(11)

(11)

(22)

21

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

534 Likely Republican Caucus Voters
December 14-17, 2015

±6.9%

1. Safety and Security
Do you feel America is generally becoming a safer and more secure country, or a more dangerous and insecure country?
Ideology
Safer and more secure
More dangerous and insecure
Neither
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

1%
95%
4%

0%
96%
4%

1%
95%
4%



1%
97%
2%

2%
93%
6%

1%
95%
5%

2%
95%
3%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(146)

(250)

100%

(534)

(245)

(261)

(285)

(189)

(37)

Gender
Safer and more secure
More dangerous and insecure
Neither
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

1%
95%
4%

1%
94%
5%

1%
96%
3%

5%
93%
2%

0%
94%
6%

1%
94%
5%

0%
98%
2%

1%
95%
4%

2%
94%
4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(419)

(100)

1

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

2. Trend of Economy
Do you feel the American economy is moving more toward a system that benefits you, or more toward a system that makes things harder for you?
Ideology
Benefits you
Makes things harder for you
Neither
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

2%
88%
10%

1%
94%
5%

0%
87%
13%



0%
91%
9%

2%
86%
11%

1%
90%
9%

3%
85%
12%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(145)

(248)

100%

(531)

(242)

(261)

(284)

(187)

(37)

Gender
Benefits you
Makes things harder for you
Neither
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

2%
88%
10%

3%
85%
13%

0%
93%
7%

5%
72%
23%

2%
92%
6%

0%
91%
8%

2%
86%
11%

2%
87%
12%

1%
92%
6%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(531)

(303)

(228)

(56)

(89)

(245)

(141)

(416)

(100)

2

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

3. First Choice Republican Candidate
Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Republican Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

2%
6%
1%
40%
2%
0%
0%
2%
1%
0%
2%
12%
1%
31%
0%

0%
5%
0%
66%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
10%
1%
16%
1%

3%
6%
1%
34%
2%
0%
0%
4%
0%
0%
2%
12%
1%
35%
1%















2%
7%
0%
52%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
6%
0%
28%
1%

2%
6%
1%
30%
3%
0%
0%
4%
1%
0%
3%
16%
1%
33%
1%

2%
7%
1%
47%
2%
0%
0%
3%
0%
0%
2%
8%
1%
24%
1%

3%
5%
1%
28%
2%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
2%
17%
0%
38%
1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(146)

(250)

100%

(533)

(245)

(261)

(285)

(189)

Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio

Tea Party

(37)
Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

2%
6%
1%
40%
2%
0%
0%
2%
1%
0%
2%
12%

2%
5%
0%
43%
1%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
1%
15%

3%
8%
1%
36%
3%
0%
0%
4%
1%
0%
3%
8%

3%
5%
0%
42%
1%
0%
0%
0%
6%
0%
4%
10%

3%
14%
0%
37%
5%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
3%
6%

3%
7%
1%
36%
1%
0%
0%
4%
0%
0%
2%
13%

1%
2%
0%
49%
2%
0%
0%
0%
1%
0%
0%
13%

2%
6%
1%
42%
2%
0%
0%
2%
1%
0%
2%
14%

4%
9%
0%
34%
1%
0%
0%
0%
3%
0%
3%
4%

continued on the next page . . .

3

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

continued from previous page
Age group

Gender
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

1%
31%
0%

1%
29%
1%

0%
32%
1%

0%
28%
2%

1%
30%
1%

0%
32%
1%

1%
30%
0%

1%
27%
1%

0%
41%
0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(533)

(305)

(228)

(56)

(89)

(245)

(143)

(418)

(100)

4

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

4. Republican Candidate Support
Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

31%
42%
25%
2%

38%
49%
13%
0%

23%
37%
35%
5%




38%
43%
18%
1%

23%
41%
31%
5%

33%
40%
23%
5%

30%
42%
27%
1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(145)

(249)

100%

(528)

(242)

(258)

(282)

(186)

(37)

Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

31%
42%
25%
2%

35%
39%
22%
4%

25%
45%
28%
2%

14%
50%
15%
20%

33%
49%
17%
0%

32%
39%
28%
1%

33%
37%
27%
2%

28%
43%
26%
4%

41%
40%
17%
1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(528)

(303)

(225)

(55)

(88)

(243)

(142)

(414)

(100)

5

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

5. Talk About Republican Choice with Network
Are you discussing the Presidential race with friends and family these days, either in person or online?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Yes, and I’m telling people why they
should vote for [Candidate Name] too
Yes, but I don’t always mention my
support for [Candidate Name]
No, not discussing it much
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

42%

52%

35%

47%

37%

42%

40%

46%
12%

39%
9%

55%
10%


45%
8%

47%
16%

45%
13%

49%
11%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(145)

(247)

100%

(526)

(241)

(258)

(282)

(185)

(37)

Gender
Yes, and I’m telling people why they
should vote for [Candidate Name] too
Yes, but I don’t always mention my
support for [Candidate Name]
No, not discussing it much
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

42%

49%

32%

33%

43%

50%

29%

42%

43%

46%
12%

43%
8%

51%
17%

63%
3%

47%
10%

40%
9%

50%
21%

45%
13%

50%
7%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(526)

(303)

(224)

(55)

(88)

(242)

(142)

(412)

(100)

6

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

6. Republican Candidate Characteristics – Donald Trump
For each candidate, please check the box if the phrase describes them. Check all that apply.
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Electable
Someone I can relate to
Prepared
Effective
Totals

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

41%
28%
29%
42%

46%
31%
39%
46%

36%
24%
27%
41%

55%
34%
38%
55%

27%
22%
21%
31%

39%
26%
28%
41%

36%
30%
23%
42%

(534)

(146)

(250)




(245)

(261)

(285)

(189)

(37)

Gender
Electable
Someone I can relate to
Prepared
Effective
Totals

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

41%
28%
29%
42%

48%
33%
37%
46%

31%
23%
18%
37%

28%
6%
50%
38%

45%
24%
24%
45%

39%
31%
32%
48%

45%
36%
18%
32%

37%
29%
28%
41%

56%
27%
32%
42%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(419)

(100)

7

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

7. Republican Candidate Characteristics – Ben Carson
For each candidate, please check the box if the phrase describes them. Check all that apply.
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Electable
Someone I can relate to
Prepared
Effective
Totals

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

35%
53%
22%
25%

33%
61%
19%
27%

36%
51%
22%
22%

42%
54%
25%
28%

29%
52%
19%
21%

41%
55%
24%
29%

27%
52%
18%
20%

(534)

(146)

(250)




(245)

(261)

(285)

(189)

(37)

Gender
Electable
Someone I can relate to
Prepared
Effective
Totals

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

35%
53%
22%
25%

38%
56%
21%
25%

32%
48%
24%
25%

44%
54%
41%
35%

47%
46%
24%
29%

35%
51%
21%
20%

27%
58%
16%
27%

36%
52%
23%
25%

37%
61%
22%
25%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(419)

(100)

8

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

8. Republican Candidate Characteristics – Marco Rubio
For each candidate, please check the box if the phrase describes them. Check all that apply.
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Electable
Someone I can relate to
Prepared
Effective
Totals

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

50%
32%
48%
36%

49%
26%
55%
33%

50%
33%
46%
39%

53%
30%
49%
36%

47%
33%
49%
35%

48%
34%
46%
34%

49%
27%
51%
36%

(534)

(146)

(250)




(245)

(261)

(285)

(189)

(37)

Gender
Electable
Someone I can relate to
Prepared
Effective
Totals

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

50%
32%
48%
36%

53%
32%
51%
35%

47%
33%
45%
36%

44%
32%
66%
50%

48%
19%
34%
20%

51%
38%
48%
35%

54%
30%
51%
41%

54%
37%
52%
41%

38%
14%
35%
14%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(419)

(100)

9

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

9. Republican Candidate Characteristics – Ted Cruz
For each candidate, please check the box if the phrase describes them. Check all that apply.
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Electable
Someone I can relate to
Prepared
Effective
Totals

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

63%
46%
61%
55%

82%
59%
66%
66%

58%
46%
62%
55%

77%
57%
71%
65%

50%
36%
53%
46%

69%
49%
63%
57%

54%
39%
59%
53%

(534)

(146)

(250)




(245)

(261)

(285)

(189)

(37)

Gender
Electable
Someone I can relate to
Prepared
Effective
Totals

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

63%
46%
61%
55%

70%
50%
64%
58%

54%
41%
56%
50%

66%
49%
84%
73%

75%
38%
64%
52%

56%
53%
64%
56%

67%
38%
44%
49%

64%
50%
62%
58%

60%
31%
55%
45%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(419)

(100)

10

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

10. Impact on Vote Choice
Which of these has impacted your vote choice recently? Check all that apply.
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
How candidates performed at debates
How candidates reacted to news
events
How candidates handled interviews,
speeches, and TV appearances
Seeing or meeting the candidates in
person in [state]
Totals

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

54%

66%

47%

56%

52%

54%

56%

60%

64%

62%

59%

64%

61%

65%

78%

82%

74%

76%

79%

78%

76%

23%

27%

24%

22%

26%

25%

24%

(534)

(146)

(250)

(245)

(261)

(285)

(189)

(37)

Gender
How candidates performed at debates
How candidates reacted to news
events
How candidates handled interviews,
speeches, and TV appearances
Seeing or meeting the candidates in
person in [state]
Totals

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

54%

54%

54%

50%

54%

60%

46%

57%

41%

60%

63%

56%

76%

64%

59%

54%

59%

61%

78%

83%

72%

77%

72%

82%

75%

77%

81%

23%

24%

23%

42%

22%

25%

13%

24%

20%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(419)

(100)

11

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

11. Most Important to Republican Choice
Which of these is most important to your vote right now, a candidate’s views on...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
The economy and jobs
National security and terrorism
Matters of faith and religious values
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

18%
61%
21%

13%
61%
26%

17%
65%
18%



16%
69%
15%

19%
56%
26%

12%
58%
29%

26%
66%
8%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(146)

(250)

100%

(534)

(245)

(261)

(285)

(189)

(37)

Gender
The economy and jobs
National security and terrorism
Matters of faith and religious values
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

18%
61%
21%

23%
59%
18%

10%
64%
26%

15%
36%
50%

22%
53%
25%

20%
60%
19%

12%
77%
11%

17%
59%
24%

21%
69%
10%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(419)

(100)

12

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

12. Trump Statements
Whether or not you agree, do the things Donald Trump says generally make you...
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Glad someone says them, they need
to be said and discussed
Unhappy someone says them, they
don’t belong in a Presidential
campaign
Don’t care either way
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

74%

75%

76%

90%

60%

69%

82%

21%
5%

21%
4%

19%
4%


5%
4%

35%
5%

24%
7%

16%
2%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(146)

(250)

100%

(534)

(245)

(261)

(285)

(189)

(37)

Gender
Glad someone says them, they need
to be said and discussed
Unhappy someone says them, they
don’t belong in a Presidential
campaign
Don’t care either way
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Total

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

74%

79%

68%

40%

69%

78%

85%

70%

89%

21%
5%

16%
4%

27%
6%

58%
2%

18%
13%

17%
6%

14%
0%

24%
5%

6%
4%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(534)

(305)

(229)

(56)

(89)

(246)

(143)

(419)

(100)

13

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Republican Voters

13. Ban Muslims from Entering US
Do you think the U.S. should temporarily ban Muslims from other countries from entering the United States, or not?
Asked of Republican primary voters

Ideology
Should ban
Should not ban
Totals
(Weighted N)

Tea Party

Total

Very conservative

Conservative

Moderate

Yes

No

Yes

No

77%
23%

83%
17%

78%
22%


89%
11%

67%
33%

75%
25%

80%
20%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(144)

(247)

100%

(526)

(242)

(256)

(281)

(186)

(36)

Gender
Should ban
Should not ban
Totals
(Weighted N)

Evangelical

Age group

Party ID

Total

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Republican

Independent

77%
23%

77%
23%

78%
22%

43%
57%

73%
27%

80%
20%

88%
12%

74%
26%

90%
10%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(526)

(300)

(226)

(54)

(89)

(241)

(143)

(412)

(100)

14

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Democratic Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error

459 Likely Democratic Caucus Voters
December 14-17, 2015

±8.6%

1. Safety and Security
Do you feel America is generally becoming a safer and more secure country, or a more dangerous and insecure country?
Ideology
Safer and more secure
More dangerous and insecure
Neither
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

15%
51%
34%

26%
41%
33%

16%
59%
25%

14%
41%
45%

18%
35%
47%

13%
62%
25%

22%
53%
25%

10%
63%
27%

16%
44%
40%

12%
56%
32%

17%
53%
30%

8%
43%
49%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(459)

(98)

(95)

(133)

(182)

(277)

(67)

(71)

(197)

(123)

(357)

(96)

1

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Democratic Voters

2. Trend of Economy
Do you feel the American economy is moving more toward a system that benefits you, or more toward a system that makes things harder for you?
Ideology
Benefits you
Makes things harder for you
Neither
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

24%
54%
22%

36%
48%
16%

28%
46%
26%

19%
54%
26%

22%
61%
17%

26%
49%
26%

34%
49%
17%

25%
51%
24%

23%
56%
22%

20%
54%
26%

29%
48%
22%

6%
72%
23%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(459)

(98)

(95)

(133)

(182)

(277)

(67)

(71)

(197)

(123)

(357)

(95)

2

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Democratic Voters

3. First Choice Democratic Candidate
Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Iowa Democratic Presidential caucus in 2016?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

50%
4%
45%
1%

44%
1%
55%
0%

50%
3%
46%
1%

60%
5%
35%
1%

44%
8%
47%
1%

54%
2%
44%
1%

28%
1%
71%
0%

54%
0%
46%
0%

50%
5%
44%
1%

59%
7%
33%
1%

53%
4%
42%
1%

40%
6%
54%
1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(456)

(98)

(95)

(133)

(182)

(275)

(67)

(71)

(197)

(121)

(354)

(96)

3

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Democratic Voters

4. Enthusiasm for First Choice
How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

57%
37%
5%

71%
23%
6%

61%
30%
9%

49%
50%
2%

55%
39%
6%

59%
36%
5%

64%
25%
11%

68%
24%
8%

48%
48%
5%

63%
36%
1%

60%
35%
4%

45%
48%
8%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(453)

(97)

(93)

(132)

(180)

(273)

(67)

(71)

(195)

(120)

(352)

(95)

4

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Democratic Voters

5. Impact on Vote Choice
Which of these has impacted your vote choice recently? Check all that apply.
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
How candidates performed at debates
How candidates reacted to news
events
How candidates handled interviews,
speeches, and TV appearances
Seeing or meeting the candidates in
person in [state]
Totals

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

41%

45%

54%

37%

45%

38%

58%

46%

41%

30%

43%

32%

48%

57%

63%

43%

47%

48%

60%

49%

45%

44%

45%

56%

72%

70%

83%

62%

68%

74%

82%

65%

72%

70%

70%

79%

26%

24%

35%

33%

26%

27%

27%

16%

31%

24%

30%

14%

(459)

(98)

(95)

(133)

(182)

(277)

(67)

(71)

(197)

(123)

(357)

(96)

5

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Democratic Voters

6. Clinton Supporters’ View of Sanders
Even though you are supporting Hillary Clinton, how would you describe your view of what Bernie Sanders is saying in the campaign?
Asked of Clinton supporters

Ideology
I generally like what Bernie Sanders is
saying, but I like Hillary Clinton better
I generally do not like what Bernie
Sanders is saying
I haven’t heard enough from Bernie
Sanders yet
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

78%

86%

86%

74%

87%

78%

76%

12%

10%

3%

16%

6%

20%

13%

10%

4%

11%

10%

7%

2%

11%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(80)

(147)

100%

(79)

(99)

(71)

(189)

100%
(228)

(43)

(48)

(19)

(38)

(38)

6

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Democratic Voters

7. Sanders Supporters’ View of Clinton
Even though you are supporting Bernie Sanders, how would you describe your view of what Hillary Clinton is saying in the campaign?
Asked of Sanders supporters

Ideology
I generally like what Hillary Clinton is
saying, but I like Bernie Sanders
better
I generally do not like what Hillary
Clinton is saying
I haven’t heard enough from Hillary
Clinton yet
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

74%

78%

77%

73%

66%

83%

57%

21%

18%

14%

27%

28%

13%

43%

4%

4%

10%

0%

7%

4%

0%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(121)

100%

(86)

100%

(54)

100%

(207)

(150)

(51)

(43)

(47)

(48)

(32)

(86)

(40)

7

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Democratic Voters

8. Sanders Critical of Clinton
Do you think Bernie Sanders has been too critical of Hillary Clinton, not critical enough, or has his approach been about right?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
Too critical
Not critical enough
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

10%
9%
81%

5%
11%
84%

8%
16%
76%

8%
6%
86%

5%
13%
82%

13%
6%
81%

7%
11%
83%

12%
6%
82%

11%
11%
77%

8%
5%
87%

11%
7%
81%

3%
13%
84%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(456)

(98)

(94)

(133)

(181)

(275)

(67)

(71)

(196)

(121)

(354)

(96)

8

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Democratic Voters

9. Clinton Critical of Sanders
Do you think Hillary Clinton has been too critical of Bernie Sanders, not critical enough, or has her approach been about right?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
Too critical
Not critical enough
About right
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

12%
4%
84%

15%
1%
84%

7%
4%
89%

10%
0%
90%

10%
4%
86%

14%
3%
83%

23%
1%
76%

11%
4%
86%

14%
5%
81%

4%
3%
93%

11%
4%
85%

17%
3%
80%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(450)

(98)

(94)

(133)

(176)

(274)

(67)

(71)

(192)

(119)

(348)

(95)

9

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Iowa Likely Democratic Voters

10. Ban Muslims from Entering US
Do you think the U.S. should temporarily ban Muslims from other countries from entering the United States, or not?
Asked of Democratic primary voters

Ideology
Should ban
Should not ban
Totals
(Weighted N)

Gender

Age group

Party ID

Total

Very liberal

Liberal

Moderate

Male

Female

18-29

30-44

45-64

65+

Democrat

Independent

18%
82%

11%
89%

5%
95%

20%
80%

19%
81%

18%
82%

7%
93%

20%
80%

24%
76%

14%
86%

18%
82%

23%
77%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

(452)

(98)

(95)

(133)

(182)

(270)

(67)

(71)

(190)

(123)

(350)

(96)

10