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WHITBY-OSHAWA

JANUARY 14, 2016

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 5:30 AM EST, JANUARY 14, 2016
PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 597 Whitby-Oshawa residents by Smart IVR
™ on January 11th, 2015. Mainstreet surveyed a mixture of landlines and cell phones.
Margin of error: +/- 4.00%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by
geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

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"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

PCs LEAD IN WHITBY-OSHAWA BY ELECTION
January 14, 2016 (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Lorne Coe, the
Progressive Conservative candidate, leading in the race to replace Christine Elliott. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 4%, 19 times out of 20.
Coe leads the Ontario Liberal Party’s Elizabeth Roy by 8% among all voters and extends that lead
to 9% among decided and leaning voters. But with 27% of voters undecided there is room for
movement.
“It’s a very high undecided rate but right now what we’re seeing looks a lot like a two-way race,”
said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “We’ve heard the Liberal party has had radio
ads on air so that could be making a difference and we may see their vote soften as the campaign
continues. With all parties expected to flood resources into the riding and a high undecided rate
there is plenty of time for movement.”
Among voters self-identified as ‘certain’ to vote the lead narrows to just 6%. “With by elections,
turnout is absolutely crucial,” continued Maggi. “The get-out-the-vote operation could make all the
difference especially if there is poor weather on election day,” he finished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels
of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public
affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been
the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

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Liberal

ELIZABETH ROY (OLP)
LORNE COE (PC)
NIKI LUNDQUIST (NDP)
STACEY LEADBETTER (GPC)
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

PC

NDP

Green
18-34
37%
39%
3%
0%
22%
73

35-49
27%
36%
5%
0%
32%
132

27%

1%

6%

37%

29%

If the provincial by election were held today, which candidate would you support?

Undecided
50-64
24%
38%
9%
4%
26%
186

65+ Male Female
25% 25%
32%
34% 47%
28%
9%
9%
3%
2%
2%
1%
30% 17%
37%
206 285
312

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ELIZABETH ROY (OLP)
LORNE COE (PC)
NIKI LUNDQUIST (NDP)
STACEY LEADBETTER (GPC)

PC

NDP
18-34
46%
48%
3%
2%

4%

49%

Liberal

8%

40%

If the provincial by election were held today, which candidate would you support? (Decided and Leaning)

Green
35-49
40%
51%
6%
3%

50-64
34%
47%
13%
6%

65+
37%
47%
14%
2%

Male Female
32%
49%
55%
43%
11%
5%
3%
4%

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Liberal

Ontario Liberal Party
Progressive Conservative
NDP
Green Party
Undecided

PC

6%
NDP

Green

64%

3%

12%

15%

And which Party are you leaning towards voting for? (Undecided Only)

Undecided

Certain Likely Might Unlikely
33%
28% 5%
5%
39%
13% 40% 63%
7%
3%
4%
3%
1%
1%
0%
5%
20%
56% 52%
24%

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How likely are you to vote in the provincial by election?
Absolutely certain to vote
Likely to vote
Might vote
Unlikely to vote
If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support?
Elizabeth Roy of the Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
Lorne Coe of the Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown
Niki Lundquist of the NDP led by Andrea Horwath
Stacey Leadbetter of the Green Party led by Mike Schreiner
Undecided
And which Party are you leaning towards voting for? (Undecided Only)
Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne
Progressive Conservatives led by Patrick Brown
NDP led by Andrea Horwath
Green Party led by Mike Schreiner
Undecided

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in defiance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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