HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

January 2016
GOP Primary Ballots

Study #16027 -- page 1
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Interviews: 400 Republican Primary Voters

Date: January 9-13, 2016

54 Male
46 Female

Study #16027
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated.

The margin of error for 400 interviews among Republican Primary Voters is ±4.90%

Q22

Next, I’m going to mention a number of people who are seeking the Republican nomination for president in
2016. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for
the Republican nomination president in 2016. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (AFTER THE
FIRST TEN ITEMS, READ:) And, just a few more. (RANDOMIZE LIST)
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES

Ted Cruz
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
Marco Rubio
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
Donald Trump
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
March 2015^ .........................
Ben Carson
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................

Yes, Could See
Self Supporting

No, Could Not See
Self Supporting

Don’t Know
Name

Not
Sure

71
67
57
48
45
52
51
57
40

25
27
34
41
44
38
31
28
38

2
4
4
5
8
7
14
12
18

2
2
5
6
3
3
4
3
4

67
64
59
65
63
62
74
74
56

28
29
32
26
27
29
15
15
26

4
4
5
5
9
7
8
9
14

1
3
4
4
1
2
3
2
4

65
58
60
59
47
47
32
23

34
40
37
36
52
49
66
74

1
1

1
2
3
4
1
4
2
2

60
63
77
74
69
49
50
39
41

39
32
18
20
23
27
21
22
18

1
3
1
3
6
21
27
36
38

3
4
3
2
3
2
3
3

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
GOP Primary Ballots

Study #16027 -- page 2
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES

Chris Christie
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
Carly Fiorina
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
Jeb Bush
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
Mike Huckabee
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
Rand Paul
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................

Yes, Could See
Self Supporting

No, Could Not See
Self Supporting

Don’t Know
Name

Not
Sure

48
43
36
34
42
37
36
38
32

45
50
54
60
51
55
55
50
57

5
4
6
4
6
5
6
9
7

2
4
4
2
1
3
3
3
4

45
45
49
56
61
33
31
17
18

44
42
37
30
28
31
29
25
25

7
10
10
9
10
34
38
52
54

4
3
4
5
1
2
2
6
3

42
45
45
51
55
57
75
70
49

55
53
52
44
43
40
22
27
42

1
1
1
1
1
2
1
4

2
2
2
4
1
2
1
2
5

36
41
45
45
47
52
65
52
52

59
53
48
50
46
43
32
39
40

3
4
3
2
5
3
1
5
3

2
2
4
3
2
2
2
4
5

32
30
32
33
35
44
49
59
49

64
62
59
59
58
48
45
32
40

4
7
5
4
5
5
5
6
8

1
4
4
2
3
1
3
3

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
GOP Primary Ballots

Study #16027 -- page 3
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES

Yes, Could See
Self Supporting

No, Could Not See
Self Supporting

Don’t Know
Name

Not
Sure

28
22
28
26
34
30
25

52
53
46
45
44
31
30

18
22
22
23
20
36
42

2
3
4
6
2
3
3

26
27
28
33
37
49
40

63
59
60
56
46
40
40

9
9
7
10
11
10
16

2
5
5
1
6
1
4

John Kasich
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
Rick Santorum
January 2016^ ......................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
March 2015^ .........................

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

Q23

And, if the Republican primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates
would you favor (RANDOMIZE :1-10)? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT
ONLY ONE ANSWER.) (IF CHOICE, THEN ASK:) And, which of the following candidates would be your
second choice (RANDOMIZE REMAINING LIST FROM :1-10)?
FIRST CHOICE
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE

Donald Trump ................
Ted Cruz ........................
Marco Rubio ...................
Ben Carson ....................
Chris Christie..................
Jeb Bush ........................
Carly Fiorina ...................
John Kasich....................
Rand Paul ......................
Mike Huckabee ..............
Rick Santorum................
Jim Gilmore ....................
Bobby Jindal...................
Lindsey Graham .............
George Pataki ................
Scott Walker ...................
Rick Perry.......................
Other (VOL) .................
None (VOL) .................
Not sure .......................

1/16^
33
20
13
12
5
5
3
3
3
1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1
1

12/15^
27
22
15
11
3
7
5
2
2
3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3

10/2529/15^
23
10
11
29
3
8
3
3
2
3
NA
NA
1
1
3

10/1518/15^
25
9
13
22
1
8
7
3
2
3
NA
NA
1
1
5

9/15^
21
5
11
20
3
7
11
6
3
2
1
1
NA
NA
1
2
6

7/15^
19
9
5
10
3
14
3
6
6
1
1
15
3
1
4

6/15^
1
4
14
11
4
22
2
1
7
9
NA
1
17
5
1
1

4/15^
NA
11
18
7
5
23
1
NA
11
5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
14
2
3

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican
Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
GOP Primary Ballots

Study #16027 -- page 4
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

COMBINED CHOICE
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE

Ted Cruz .......................
Donald Trump ...............
Marco Rubio..................
Ben Carson ...................
Chris Christie ................
Jeb Bush .......................
John Kasich ..................
Carly Fiorina..................
Rand Paul .....................
Mike Huckabee .............
Jim Gilmore ...................
Rick Santorum ..............
Bobby Jindal .................
Lindsey Graham............
George Pataki ...............
Scott Walker..................
Rick Perry .....................
Other (VOL) ...............
None (VOL) ................
Not sure .....................

1/16^
47
47
30
19
12
12
8
7
6
5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
2
2

12/15^
40
39
33
28
9
12
5
11
5
7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3
4

10/2529/15^
23
35
24
50
6
15
6
14
6
8
1
1
NA
NA
1
2
5

10/1518/15^
17
39
26
44
3
17
7
18
6
7
1
1
NA
NA
1
2
7

9/15^
11
31
26
35
5
19
8
28
6
8
3
1
NA
NA
3
7

7/15^
17
30
16
21
9
30
4
2
11
11
2
4
24
7
2
5

6/15^
11
4
34
19
10
40
1
3
16
18
NA
1
24
10
1
4

4/15^
18
NA
41
11
14
37
NA
3
20
15
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
27
7
4

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican
Primary

Q24a

Now if you had to choose between ONLY the following candidates running for the Republican primary for
president, which one would you favor (RANDOMIZE :1-5)? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you
lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.)
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE

Donald Trump ................................................
Ted Cruz........................................................
Marco Rubio ..................................................
Ben Carson ...................................................
Jeb Bush .......................................................
None (VOL) ................................................
Not sure ......................................................

1/16^
36
25
19
12
7
1
-

12/15^
30
24
21
13
9
1
2

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they
would vote in the Republican Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
GOP Primary Ballots

Study #16027 -- page 5
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

(ASK IF "JEB BUSH" OR "BEN CARSON" ON Q24a)
Q24b
And, if that candidate were not on the ballot which of the following candidates would be your second choice
(RANDOMIZE :1-3)? ^
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
AMONG ALL GOP PRIMARY VOTERS

Marco Rubio .....................................................................................
Ted Cruz ...........................................................................................
Donald Trump ...................................................................................
None (VOL) ...................................................................................
Not sure .........................................................................................
Another Candidate Chosen (Q24a) .................................................

8
6
5
81

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote
in the Republican Primary

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE AMONG GOP PRIMARY VOTERS
WITH BUSH AND CARSON VOTERS REASSIGNED ACCORDING TO THEIR SECOND CHOICE

Donald Trump ...................................................................................
Ted Cruz ...........................................................................................
Marco Rubio .....................................................................................
None (VOL) ...................................................................................
Not sure .........................................................................................

40
31
26
2
1

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote
in the Republican Primary

(Q25 AND Q26 ROTATED)
Q25
Now, if you had to choose between ONLY (ROTATE) Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in the Republican
primary for president, which one would you favor? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean?
(ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.)^
Donald Trump ................................................
Ted Cruz ........................................................
Neither (VOL) ..............................................
Not sure ......................................................

43
51
5
1

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

Q26

Now, if you had to choose between ONLY (ROTATE) Donald Trump and Marco Rubio in the Republican
primary for president, which one would you favor? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean?
(ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.)^
Donald Trump ................................................
Marco Rubio ..................................................
Neither (VOL) ..............................................
Not sure ......................................................

52
45
2
1

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Republican Primary