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HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES

January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 1
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Interviews: 800 Registered Voters, including 280 respondents with a cell phone only and
22 respondents reached on a cell phone but who also have a landline.

Date: January 9-13, 2016

48 Male
52 Female
Study #16027
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Please note: all results are shown as percentages unless otherwise stated.

The margin of error for 800 interviews among Registered Voters is ±3.46%
The margin of error for 400 interviews among Republican Primary Voters is ±4.90%
The margin of error for 400 interviews among Democratic Primary Voters is ±4.90%

Unless otherwise noted by a “+”, “^”, or “^^” all previous data shown reflects responses among all adults.

Q2a

For statistical purposes only, would you please tell me how old you are?
(IF “REFUSED,” ASK:) Well, would you tell me which age group you belong to? (READ LIST) +
18-24 ......................................................
25-29 ......................................................
30-34 ......................................................
35-39 ......................................................
40-44 ......................................................
45-49 ......................................................
50-54 ......................................................
55-59 ......................................................
60-64 ......................................................
65-69 ......................................................
70-74 ......................................................
75 and over ............................................
Not sure/refused ...................................

9
9
12
6
9
6
9
11
11
7
5
6
-

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered
voters.

Q2b

To ensure that we have a representative sample, would you please tell me whether you are from a Hispanic
or Spanish-speaking background? +
Yes, Hispanic ...........................................
No, not Hispanic .......................................
Not sure/refused .....................................

10
89
1

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered
voters.

Q2c

And again, for statistical purposes only, what is your race--white, black, Asian, or something else? +
White ..........................................................
Black ..........................................................
Asian ..........................................................
Other ..........................................................
Hispanic (VOL) .........................................
Not sure/refused .......................................

75
12
2
3
6
2

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered
voters.

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
Q3

Study #16027 -- page 2
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Are you currently registered to vote [LANDLINE: at this address; CELL: in (STATE)]? +
Registered ................................... 100
Not registered .............................. Not sure ..................................... + Results shown reflect responses among
registered voters.

Q4

All in all, do you think that things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that
things are off on the wrong track? 1
High

Headed in the right direction ...
Off on the wrong track .............
Mixed (VOL) ..........................
Not sure ................................

1/16+
29
63
5
3

12/15
20
70
6
4

10/2529/15
27
64
5
4

10/1518/15
25
64
7
4

9/15
30
62
5
3

7/15
28
65
4
3

6/15
31
61
4
4

4/15
28
62
6
4

3/15
32
60
5
3

9/01
72
11
11
6

Low
10/1720/08+
12
78
7
3

1/15
31
59
5
5

12/14
27
64
6
3

11/14
25
65
6
4

10/3011/1/14+
27
63
6
4

10/812/14+
25
65
6
4

9/14+
23
67
6
4

8/14
22
71
5
2

6/14
25
63
7
5

4/14
27
63
6
4

3/14
26
65
5
4

1/14
28
63
5
4

12/13
29
64
5
2

10/2528/13
22
70
4
4

10/7-9/13
14
78
4
4

9/13
30
62
5
3

7/13
29
61
6
4

6/13
32
59
6
3

4/13
31
61
5
3

2/13
32
59
6
3

1/13
35
57
4
4

12/12
41
53
3
3

10/12+
41
53
4
2

9/2630/12+
40
53
5
2

9/1216/12+
39
55
4
2

8/12+
32
61
4
3

7/12+
32
60
5
3

6/12
31
61
5
3

5/12
33
58
5
4

4/12
33
59
6
2

3/12
33
58
5
4

1/12
30
61
5
4

12/11
22
69
6
3

11/11
19
73
5
3

10/11
17
74
5
4

8/11
19
73
5
3

7/11
25
67
5
3

6/11
29
62
6
3

5/11
36
50
10
4

4/11
28
63
6
3

1/11
35
56
5
4

12/10
28
63
6
3

11/10
32
58
6
4

10/2830/10+
31
60
5
4

10/1418/10+
32
59
6
3

9/10
32
59
5
4

8/2630/10
30
61
6
3

8/59/10
32
58
6
4

6/10
29
62
5
4

5/611/10
34
56
6
4

3/10
33
59
5
3

1/23 25/10
32
58
7
3

1/1014/10
34
54
10
2

12/09
33
55
10
2

10/09
36
52
9
3

9/09
39
48
10
3

7/09
39
49
9
3

6/09
42
46
9
3

4/09
43
43
10
4

2/09
41
44
9
6

1/09
26
59
9
6

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
1
The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
Q5

Study #16027 -- page 3
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

In general, do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

Approve ..........
Disapprove .....
Not sure ........

High

Low

3/15
46
50
4

4/09
61
30
9

9/14+
40
54
6

8/14
40
54
6

6/14
41
53
6

4/14
44
50
6

3/14
41
54
5

8/13
44
48
8

7/13
45
50
5

6/13
48
47
5

4/13
47
48
5

2/13
50
45
5

9/1216/12+
50
48
2

8/12+
48
49
3

7/12+
49
48
3

6/12
47
48
5

5/12
48
46
6

4/12
49
46
5

10/11
44
51
5

8/11
44
51
5

7/11
47
48
5

6/11
49
46
5

5/11
52
41
7

4/11
49
45
6

2/11
48
46
6

10/2830/10+
45
50
5

10/1418/10+
47
49
4

9/10
46
49
5

8/2630/10
45
49
6

8/59/10
47
48
5

6/10
45
48
7

5/2023/10
48
l혈044
7

5/611/10
50
44
6

12/09
47
46
7

10/09
51
42
7

9/09
51
41
8

8/09
51
40
9

7/09
53
40
7

6/09
56
34
10

4/09
61
30
9

2/09
60
26
14

12/15
43
51
6

10/2529/15
45
49
6

10/1518/15
46
49
5

9/15
47
47
6

7/15
45
50
5

6/15
48
48
4

4/15
48
47
5

1/15
46
48
6

12/14
45
50
5

11/14
44
50
6

10/3011/1/14+
42
52
6

10/812/14+
42
52
6

9/14+
40
54
6

1/14
43
51
6

12/13
43
54
3

10/2528/13
42
51
7

10/79/13
47
48
5

9/13
45
50
5

1/13
52
44
4

12/12
53
43
4

10/12+
49
48
3

9/2630/12+
49
48
3

3/12
50
45
5

1/12
48
46
6

12/11
46
48
6

11/11
44
51
5

1/11
53
41
6

12/10
45
48
7

11/10
47
47
6

3/10
48
47
5

1/2325/10
50
44
6

1/1014/10
48
43
9

1/16+
47
49
4

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
Q6

Study #16027 -- page 4
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Now I'm going to read you the names of several public figures, groups and organizations, and I'd like you to
rate your feelings toward each one as very positive, somewhat positive, neutral, somewhat negative, or very
negative. If you don't know the name, please just say so. And, just a few more. (RANDOMIZE EXCEPT
BARACK OBAMA)

Barack Obama1
January 2016+ .............................
December 2015 ...........................
October 25-29, 2015 ....................
October 15-18, 2015 ....................
September 2015...........................
July 2015 ......................................
June 2015 ....................................
April 2015 .....................................
March 2015 ..................................
January 2015 ...............................
December 2014 ...........................
November 2014 ...........................
Oct. 30 – Nov. 1, 2014+ ...............
October 8-12, 2014+ ....................
September 2014+ ........................
August 2014 .................................
June 2014 ....................................
April 2014 .....................................
March 2014 ..................................
January 2014 ...............................
December 2013 ...........................
October 7-9, 2013 ........................
May 30-June 2, 2013 ...................
April 2013 .....................................
January 2013 ...............................
December 2012 ...........................
October 2012+ .............................
September 26-30, 2012+ .............
August 2012+ ...............................
July 2012+....................................
June 2012 ....................................
January 2012 ...............................
August 2011 .................................
April 2011 .....................................
January 2011 ...............................
December 2010 ...........................
November 2010 ...........................
October 28-30, 2010+ ..................
June 2010 ....................................
May 20-23, 2010 ..........................
March 2010 ..................................
January 23-25, 2010 ....................
December 2009 ...........................
October 2009 ...............................
February 2009 ..............................
January 2009 ...............................
High
February 2009 ..............................
Presidential Term Low
August 2014 .................................
All-time Obama Low
October 28-30, 2006+ ..................

Neutral

Somewhat
Negative

Very
Negative

Don't Know
Name/
Not Sure

20
21
17
17
18
20
20
21
20
21
21
21
20
22
20
18
21
20
20
19
20
21
19
17
21
16
15
15
17
16
19
22
20
22
23
23
21
18
20
19
19
23
21
20
21
23

11
9
12
12
14
13
13
13
12
13
10
11
12
11
11
13
13
15
15
13
11
11
13
10
11
9
8
6
8
8
14
10
12
14
15
14
12
12
13
15
11
14
13
11
12
17

12
14
12
13
11
14
14
13
14
12
13
11
13
12
13
14
14
13
14
14
13
11
12
15
11
14
12
11
13
11
11
14
14
13
14
14
13
15
15
14
14
14
15
12
9
8

30
32
31
31
29
29
27
27
29
29
31
32
32
34
33
33
31
28
30
30
33
30
28
27
26
24
31
31
30
32
27
25
30
23
18
24
26
27
25
24
24
20
22
21
10
6

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
3

47

21

12

9

10

1

22

18

13

14

33

-

14

17

18

5

6

40

Very
Positive

Somewhat
Positive

27
23
27
27
28
24
25
26
24
24
24
24
23
21
22
22
20
24
21
23
22
26
28
30
31
37
34
37
31
33
29
28
24
28
29
25
28
29
27
28
31
29
29
36
47
43

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.

1

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 5
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Q6 (cont'd)
Hillary Clinton1
January 2016+ ..............................
December 2015 .............................
October 25-29, 2015 .....................
October 15-18, 2015 .....................
September 2015 ............................
July 2015 .......................................
June 2015 .....................................
April 2015 ......................................
March 2015 ...................................
January 2015 ................................
November 2014 .............................
September 2014+..........................
June 2014 .....................................
April 2014 ......................................
March 2014 ...................................
September 2013 ............................
May 30-June 2, 2013.....................
April 2013 ......................................
January 2013 ................................
December 2012 .............................
November 2011 .............................
May 2011 ......................................
April 2011 ......................................
December 2010 .............................
January 10-14, 2010 ....................
July 2009 .......................................
February 2009 ...............................
January 2009 ................................
December 2008 .............................
September 2008+..........................
August 2008+ ................................
June 2008+ ...................................
April 2008+ ....................................
March 24-25, 2008+ ......................
March 7-10, 2008+ ........................
January 2008 ................................
June 2007 .....................................
March 2007 ...................................
December 2006 .............................
April 2006 ......................................
December 2004 .............................
July 2003 .......................................
March 2001 ...................................
January 2001 ................................
High
February 2009 ...............................
Low
March 2001 ...................................

Neutral

Somewhat
Negative

Very
Negative

Don't Know
Name/
Not Sure

24
21
23
20
25
22
23
23
23
25
19
22
21
25
21
25
20
24
22
24
22
29
27
28
27
27
27
29
26
24
25
28
22
20
23
23
24
23
22
19
21
21
19
22

11
15
12
12
13
14
15
14
19
17
16
16
18
19
20
17
18
14
19
14
22
23
21
18
22
15
18
14
20
15
16
14
14
15
11
11
15
17
17
19
14
20
15
13

12
13
12
13
13
15
11
10
13
14
15
15
14
11
12
12
13
14
12
16
12
12
11
11
13
15
11
15
14
17
18
17
19
21
14
11
16
15
12
13
11
13
18
12

37
35
35
35
34
33
29
32
23
23
25
26
23
21
22
19
18
15
13
12
10
9
11
16
12
16
11
14
12
20
23
22
25
27
29
30
26
28
26
28
29
27
31
24

1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
2
1
3
1
2

32

27

18

11

11

1

16

19

15

18

31

1

Very
Positive

Somewhat
Positive

16
16
17
19
14
15
21
19
21
20
24
21
23
23
23
26
29
32
34
34
33
26
29
26
25
26
32
27
27
23
17
18
20
17
22
24
18
16
21
19
24
16
16
27

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
1
The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 6
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Q6 (cont'd)
Neutral

Somewhat
Negative

Very
Negative

Don't Know
Name/
Not Sure

20
18
19
22
17
14
8

20
19
22
19
23
20
22

12
13
9
11
9
10
6

19
18
19
16
13
9
7

11
14
16
16
23
37
49

3
3
3
5
4
3
6
5
4
5
6
5
4
9

16
18
16
19
20
23
21
18
19
14
20
17
17
17

31
31
33
31
31
26
29
32
34
36
27
32
32
33

28
24
24
21
19
22
16
19
20
16
18
18
18
11

18
19
19
19
20
18
20
17
14
16
15
12
14
12

4
5
5
5
6
8
8
9
9
13
14
16
15
18

Donald Trump
January 2016+ ..............................
December 2015.............................
October 25-29, 2015 .....................
October 15-18, 2015 .....................
September 2015 ............................
July 2015 .......................................
February 2011 ...............................
May 2004+ ....................................
December 1999.............................
October 1999 ................................
July 1990 .......................................

14
12
10
13
8
10
9
9
4
3
3

15
15
17
17
17
16
17
17
12
11
11

12
13
17
17
16
16
40
38
28
25
28

11
12
14
14
14
13
18
14
24
23
25

47
47
42
39
44
43
11
15
25
32
24

1
1
1
2
5
7
7
6
9

Ben Carson
January 2016+ ..............................
December 2015.............................
October 25-29, 2015 .....................
October 15-18, 2015 .....................
September 2015 ............................
November 2014.............................

10
10
17
16
13
10

20
23
20
22
16
7

23
22
20
18
23
18

17
12
10
11
11
4

18
20
14
13
10
3

12
13
19
20
27
58

Marco Rubio
January 2016+ ..............................
December 2015.............................
October 25-29, 2015 .....................
October 15-18, 2015 .....................
July 2015 .......................................
June 2015 .....................................
April 2015 ......................................
November 2014.............................
September 2014+..........................
July 2013 .......................................
April 2013 ......................................
February 2013 ...............................

7
8
7
9
5
7
8
7
6
7
12
10

24
22
19
22
19
16
14
14
15
16
16
14

25
24
25
23
24
24
24
21
21
20
18
20

17
16
14
14
14
12
12
10
11
11
8
9

12
11
11
11
9
12
11
9
10
9
8
8

15
19
24
21
29
29
31
39
37
37
38
39

Very
Positive

Somewhat
Positive

Bernie Sanders
January 2016+ ..............................
December 2015.............................
October 25-29, 2015 .....................
October 15-18, 2015 .....................
September 2015 ............................
July 2015 .......................................
June 2015 .....................................

18
18
15
16
15
10
8

Jeb Bush
January 2016+ ..............................
December 2015.............................
October 25-29, 2015 .....................
October 15-18, 2015 .....................
September 2015 ............................
July 2015 .......................................
June 2015 .....................................
April 2015 ......................................
March 2015 ...................................
January 2015 ................................
November 2014.............................
September 2014+..........................
April 2014 ......................................
May 30-June 2, 2013 ....................

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 7
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Q6 (cont'd)
Neutral

Somewhat
Negative

Very
Negative

Don't Know
Name/
Not Sure

20
16
15
14
12
12
11
10
7
6

22
24
22
23
24
24
18
16
13
13

14
12
13
12
12
13
8
8
8
4

21
23
20
22
19
19
18
22
20
8

12
16
22
22
26
27
40
35
44
65

4
4
7
7
9
12
12
11
10

20
20
22
15
24
29
24
17
13

28
23
24
28
24
22
20
21
19

21
22
18
18
10
8
10
10
7

15
15
11
11
7
4
2
9
7

12
16
18
21
26
25
32
32
44

23
27
29
27
31
39
39
34
32
29
25
23
20
16
18
20
20
24
25
27
27
20
17
18
32

22
29
27
28
23
21
18
23
25
26
27
26
25
24
21
22
22
23
23
21
23
22
19
21
24

19
18
22
20
17
16
15
18
21
21
16
21
16
17
18
15
11
14
13
16
16
16
13
15
11

15
15
12
14
14
16
15
13
11
13
14
12
19
17
18
18
13
11
14
14
12
14
13
15
12

21
11
9
10
12
8
12
10
11
10
17
17
20
25
24
25
32
27
25
21
21
27
36
31
21

1
1
3
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
-

33

31

15

9

7

5

17

17

13

14

38

1

Very
Positive

Somewhat
Positive

Ted Cruz
January 2016+ ..............................
December 2015.............................
October 25-29, 2015 .....................
October 15-18, 2015 .....................
July 2015 .......................................
April 2015 ......................................
November 2014.............................
October 25-28, 2013 .....................
October 7-9, 2013 .........................
May 30-June 2, 2013 ....................

11
9
8
7
7
5
5
9
7
4

Chris Christie
January 2016+ ..............................
July 2015 .......................................
November 2014.............................
January 2014 ................................
October 25-28, 2013 .....................
May 30-June 2, 2013 ....................
February 2013 ...............................
August 2012+ ................................
June 2011 .....................................
1

Bill Clinton
January 2016+ ..............................
March 2015 ...................................
September 2014+* ........................
March 2014 ...................................
September 2013 ............................
December 2012.............................
September 2012+..........................
August 2012+ ................................
August 2011 ..................................
September 2010 ............................
January 2009 ................................
December 2008 ............................
August 2008+ ................................
June 2008+ ...................................
April 2008+ ....................................
March 24-25, 2008+ ......................
March 7-10, 2008+ ........................
January 2008 ................................
November 2007.............................
March 2007 ...................................
April 2006 ......................................
June 2004+ ...................................
January 2002 ................................
June 2001 .....................................
January 2001 ................................
High
January 1993 ................................
Low
March 2001 ...................................
1

The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 8
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Q6 (cont'd)
George W. Bush1
January 2016+ ..............................
March 2015 ...................................
September 2014+..........................
July 2013 .......................................
April 2013 ......................................
June 2012 .....................................
August 2011 ..................................
May 2011 ......................................
October 28-30, 2010+ ...................
August 26-30, 2010+ .....................
June 2010 .....................................
January 2010 ................................
April 2009 ......................................
January 2009 ................................
December 2008.............................
October 17-20, 2008+ ...................
October 4-5, 2008+ .......................
September 19-22, 2008+ ..............
September 6-8, 2008+ ..................
August 2008+ ................................
July 2008+ .....................................
March 24-25, 2008+ ......................
March 7-10, 2008+ ........................
January 2008 ................................
June 2007 .....................................
January 2007 ................................
June 2006 .....................................
January 2006 ................................
July 2005 .......................................
January 2005 ................................
June 2004+ ...................................
January 2004 ................................
July 2003 .......................................
January 2003 ................................
June 2002 .....................................
January 2002 ................................
June 2001 .....................................
January 2001 ................................
High
December 2001.............................
Low
April 2009 ......................................

Neutral

Somewhat
Negative

Very
Negative

Don't Know
Name/
Not Sure

23
23
23
25
21
23
20
24
20
22
22
20
17
18
20
18
18
17
18
19
18
17
18
18
20
18
21
17
20
19
15
17
21
20
27
26
23
25

19
25
24
22
21
18
20
22
16
22
21
18
15
11
10
11
12
11
12
11
10
12
10
10
11
12
9
12
10
9
8
8
9
12
11
10
16
18

20
16
16
14
16
19
20
16
17
15
19
17
16
17
16
15
13
13
14
15
16
13
12
17
15
17
15
13
15
15
14
13
14
16
10
7
15
13

23
23
22
25
28
26
24
24
34
32
31
34
41
41
43
45
45
46
41
40
42
41
43
40
42
35
37
33
28
25
30
24
17
16
9
4
15
17

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
2

54

26

9

6

5

-

9

17

15

16

41

2

Very
Positive

Somewhat
Positive

14
12
14
13
14
13
15
13
12
8
7
10
9
13
11
11
12
13
15
15
14
16
16
14
12
17
18
24
27
32
33
38
38
36
43
53
30
25

1

The historical trend data for this item does not include every survey in which this item has been asked.
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

SUMMARY TABLE OF IMAGES – BY D/S (POSITIVE – NEGATIVE)
TOTAL
TOTAL
D/S
POSITIVE
NEGATIVE
Bill Clinton ..............................................
45
36
9
Bernie Sanders ......................................
38
31
7
Barack Obama .......................................
47
42
5
Marco Rubio ...........................................
31
29
2
Ted Cruz ................................................
31
35
-4
Ben Carson ............................................
30
35
-5
George W. Bush.....................................
37
43
-6
Hillary Clinton .........................................
40
49
-9
Chris Christie..........................................
24
36
-12
Jeb Bush ................................................
19
46
-27
Donald Trump ........................................
29
58
-29

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
Q7

Study #16027 -- page 9
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Thinking about the direction of the country five years from now, do you think things in the United States will
get better, get worse, or be about the same as they are now?

Get better .........................
Get worse .........................
Same as they are now .....
Not sure .........................

1/16+
35
22
32
11

1/12
53
19
20
8

1/11
53
21
22
4

8/2630/10
37
31
28
4

Moving on…
Q8
Putting aside for a moment the question of who each party's nominee might be, what is your preference for
the outcome of the 2016 presidential election––that a Democrat be elected president or that a Republican
be elected president? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) And do you strongly prefer a
(Democrat/Republican), or is your preference not that strong?

Democrat
Strongly .......................
Not strongly .................
Republican
Not strongly .................
Strongly .......................
Other (VOL) ..............
Not sure ....................

1/16+
46
33
13
43
10
33
5
6

12/15+
44
34
10
44
12
32
5
7

10/2529/15+
43
33
10
44
9
35
6
7

8/08+
46
36
10
37
13
24
6
11

7/08+
48
43
5
36
8
28
4
12

6/08+
51
44
7
35
8
27
4
10

2008 Election Trend
3/74/08+ 10/08+ 11/07+
51
50
49
45
44
41
6
6
8
33
37
39
8
8
8
25
29
31
4
4
2
12
9
11

9/07+
47
40
7
38
9
29
4
11

6/07
52
42
10
31
8
23
5
12

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q9

Thinking about the 2016 presidential election, which of the following statements comes closer to your point
of view?
Statement A: This is a time when it is important to look for a more experienced and tested person even if he
or she brings fewer changes to the current policies.
Statement B: This is a time when it is important to look for a person who will bring greater changes to the
current policies even if he or she is less experienced and tested.

Statement A: Time for a more experienced and tested person ......
Statement B: Time for a person who will bring greater changes ....
Depends (VOL) ..............................................................................
Not sure ..........................................................................................
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

1/16+
36
61
1
2

3/15+
38
59
1
2

7/08+
40
55
3
2

6/08
42
54
1
3

4/07
49
39
10
31
6
25
6
14

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
Q10

Study #16027 -- page 10
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Compared with the past several presidents, do you feel that Barack Obama will turn out to have been one of
the very best, better than most, not as good as most, or definitely worse than most of them?+
One of the very best..........................................
Better than most ...............................................
Not as good as most .........................................
Definitely worse than most ................................
Not sure ..........................................................

14
34
20
31
1

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

One of the very best............................
Better than most .................................
Not as good as most ...........................
Definitely worse than most ..................
Not sure ............................................

George
W. Bush
1/08
5
23
29
41
2

Bill
Clinton
1/99
12
38
26
19
5

Moving on…
(Q11 & Q12 ROTATED)
Q11
How closely are you following the Democratic presidential primary race––very closely, somewhat closely,
not too closely, or not closely at all?

Very closely ......................................
Somewhat closely .............................
Not too closely ..................................
Not closely at all ................................
Not sure ..........................................

1/16+
27
40
19
14
-

1/08
43
41
9
7
-

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q12

How closely are you following the Republican presidential primary race––very closely, somewhat closely,
not too closely, or not closely at all?

Very closely ......................................
Somewhat closely .............................
Not too closely ..................................
Not closely at all ................................
Not sure ..........................................

1/16+
36
39
15
10
-

1/08
33
46
13
8
-

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q13

Now, if there were a presidential primary election in your state, would you vote in the Democratic primary,
the Republican primary, or would you wait to vote in the general election in November 2016?

Vote in Democratic Primary .........................
Vote in Republican Primary .........................
Wait until the general election .....................
Do not plan to vote at all (VOL) .................
Not sure ......................................................

1/16+
28
33
37
2

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

12/15+
33
33
33
1

10/2529/15+
28
32
40
-

10/1518/15+
31
31
34
1
3

9/15+
31
28
38
3

7/15+
30
30
39
1

6/15+
30
28
38
1
3

4/15+
32
29
35
1
3

3/15+
30
25
40
2
3

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
Q14

Study #16027 -- page 11
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Next, I’m going to mention a number of people who are seeking the Democratic nomination for president in
2016. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for
the Democratic nomination president in 2016. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (RANDOMIZE
LIST)

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES

Yes, Could See
Self Supporting

No, Could Not See
Self Supporting

Don’t Know
Name

Not
Sure

Hillary Clinton
January 2016^^ ..................
December 2015^^ ..............
October 25-29, 2015^^.......
October 15-18, 2015^^.......
September 2015^^ .............
June 2015^^ .......................
March 2015^^ ....................

79
82
85
81
76
92
86

18
17
13
17
21
8
13

-

3
1
2
2
3
1

Bernie Sanders
January 2016^^ ..................
December 2015^^ ..............
October 25-29, 2015^^.......
October 15-18, 2015^^.......
September 2015^^ .............
June 2015^^ .......................
March 2015^^ ....................

66
65
61
64
62
40
21

25
28
28
25
24
32
21

6
6
7
8
10
23
54

3
1
4
3
4
5
4

Martin O’Malley
January 2016^^ ..................
December 2015^^ ..............
October 25-29, 2015^^.......
October 15-18, 2015^^.......
September 2015^^ .............
June 2015^^ .......................
March 2015^^ ....................

22
19
18
13
10
12
11

51
47
49
49
39
28
20

24
31
31
33
49
58
67

3
3
2
5
2
2
2

^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary

Q15

And, if the next Democratic primary for president were being held today, which one of the following
candidates would you favor? (READ LIST. RANDOMIZE. IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you
lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.)
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE

Hillary Clinton ...........................................
Bernie Sanders .........................................
Martin O’Malley ........................................
Jim Webb .................................................
Lincoln Chafee .........................................
Other (VOL) ...........................................
None (VOL) ...........................................
Not sure .................................................

1/16^^
59
34
2
NA
NA
3
2

12/15^^
56
37
4
NA
NA
2
1

10/2529/15^^
62
31
3
NA
NA
1
1
2

10/1518/15^^
58
33
1
2
3
3

9/15^^
53
38
1
1
1
2
4

^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary

7/15^^
59
25
3
3
1
1
4
4

6/15^^
75
15
2
4
1
2
1

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 12
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

(Q16 AND Q17 ROTATED)
Q16
Would you describe Hillary Clinton as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR
"CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Hillary Clinton is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat
(liberal/conservative)? ^^

Very liberal ....................................................
Somewhat liberal...........................................
Moderate .......................................................
Somewhat conservative ................................
Very conservative..........................................
Not sure ......................................................

1/16^^
11
26
48
6
5
4

10/1518/15^^
14
27
47
6
3
3

6/15^^
9
22
58
5
3
3

^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote
in the Democratic Primary

Q17

Would you describe Bernie Sanders as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR
"CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Bernie Sanders is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat
(liberal/conservative)? ^^

Very liberal .................................................
Somewhat liberal .......................................
Moderate ....................................................
Somewhat conservative .............................
Very conservative ......................................
Not sure ...................................................
Don’t know name (Q6) .............................

1/16^^
41
22
14
5
3
5
10

10/1518/15^^
44
16
15
5
2
6
12

^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say
they would vote in the Democratic Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 13
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

And, thinking about some other people…
(Q18 AND Q19 ROTATED)
Q18
Would you describe Barack Obama as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR
"CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Barack Obama is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat
(liberal/conservative)? ^^
Very liberal ....................................................
Somewhat liberal ..........................................
Moderate .......................................................
Somewhat conservative ................................
Very conservative .........................................
Not sure ......................................................

19
25
44
5
4
2

^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary

Q19

Would you describe Bill Clinton as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR
"CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Bill Clinton is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat
(liberal/conservative)? ^^
Very liberal ....................................................
Somewhat liberal ..........................................
Moderate .......................................................
Somewhat conservative ................................
Very conservative .........................................
Not sure ......................................................

13
24
48
6
4
5

^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary

(Q20 AND Q21 ROTATED)
Q20
Thinking about the goals and policies of the next President, would you prefer a president that is (ROTATE)
more liberal or less liberal, or about the same as Barack Obama? (IF "MORE" OR "LESS," ASK:) And,
would you prefer a president that is much or somewhat (more/less) liberal than Barack Obama? ^^
Much more liberal ...............................................
Somewhat more liberal.......................................
Somewhat less liberal ........................................
Much less liberal.................................................
About the same ..................................................
Not sure ............................................................

14
19
6
4
56
1

^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who
say they would vote in the Democratic Primary

Q21

Thinking about the goals and policies of the next President, would you prefer a president that is (ROTATE)
more liberal or less liberal, or about the same as Bill Clinton? (IF "MORE" OR "LESS," ASK:) And, would you
prefer a president that is much or somewhat (more/less) liberal than Bill Clinton? ^^
Much more liberal ...............................................
Somewhat more liberal.......................................
Somewhat less liberal ........................................
Much less liberal.................................................
About the same ..................................................
Not sure ............................................................

17
19
4
3
55
2

^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who
say they would vote in the Democratic Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
Q22

Study #16027 -- page 14
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Next, I’m going to mention a number of people who are seeking the Republican nomination for president in
2016. For each one, please tell me, yes or no, whether you could see yourself supporting that person for
the Republican nomination president in 2016. If you don't know the name, please just say so. (AFTER THE
FIRST TEN ITEMS, READ:) And, just a few more. (RANDOMIZE LIST)
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES

Ted Cruz
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
Marco Rubio
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
Donald Trump
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
March 2015^ .........................
Ben Carson
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
Chris Christie
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................

Yes, Could See
Self Supporting

No, Could Not See
Self Supporting

Don’t Know
Name

Not
Sure

71
67
57
48
45
52
51
57
40

25
27
34
41
44
38
31
28
38

2
4
4
5
8
7
14
12
18

2
2
5
6
3
3
4
3
4

67
64
59
65
63
62
74
74
56

28
29
32
26
27
29
15
15
26

4
4
5
5
9
7
8
9
14

1
3
4
4
1
2
3
2
4

65
58
60
59
47
47
32
23

34
40
37
36
52
49
66
74

1
1

1
2
3
4
1
4
2
2

60
63
77
74
69
49
50
39
41

39
32
18
20
23
27
21
22
18

1
3
1
3
6
21
27
36
38

3
4
3
2
3
2
3
3

48
43
36
34
42
37
36
38
32

45
50
54
60
51
55
55
50
57

5
4
6
4
6
5
6
9
7

2
4
4
2
1
3
3
3
4

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 15
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY THE PERCENTAGE WHO SAY YES

Carly Fiorina
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
Jeb Bush
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
Mike Huckabee
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
Rand Paul
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
April 2015^............................
March 2015^ .........................
John Kasich
January 2016^ ......................
December 2015^ ..................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
Rick Santorum
January 2016^ ......................
October 25-29, 2015^ ...........
October 15-18, 2015^ ...........
September 2015^ .................
July 2015^ ............................
June 2015^ ...........................
March 2015^ .........................

Yes, Could See
Self Supporting

No, Could Not See
Self Supporting

Don’t Know
Name

Not
Sure

45
45
49
56
61
33
31
17
18

44
42
37
30
28
31
29
25
25

7
10
10
9
10
34
38
52
54

4
3
4
5
1
2
2
6
3

42
45
45
51
55
57
75
70
49

55
53
52
44
43
40
22
27
42

1
1
1
1
1
2
1
4

2
2
2
4
1
2
1
2
5

36
41
45
45
47
52
65
52
52

59
53
48
50
46
43
32
39
40

3
4
3
2
5
3
1
5
3

2
2
4
3
2
2
2
4
5

32
30
32
33
35
44
49
59
49

64
62
59
59
58
48
45
32
40

4
7
5
4
5
5
5
6
8

1
4
4
2
3
1
3
3

28
22
28
26
34
30
25

52
53
46
45
44
31
30

18
22
22
23
20
36
42

2
3
4
6
2
3
3

26
27
28
33
37
49
40

63
59
60
56
46
40
40

9
9
7
10
11
10
16

2
5
5
1
6
1
4

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
Q23

Study #16027 -- page 16
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

And, if the Republican primary for president were being held today, which one of the following candidates
would you favor (RANDOMIZE :1-10)? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean? (ACCEPT
ONLY ONE ANSWER.) (IF CHOICE, THEN ASK:) And, which of the following candidates would be your
second choice (RANDOMIZE REMAINING LIST FROM :1-10)?
FIRST CHOICE
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE

Donald Trump ................
Ted Cruz ........................
Marco Rubio ...................
Ben Carson ....................
Chris Christie..................
Jeb Bush ........................
Carly Fiorina ...................
John Kasich....................
Rand Paul ......................
Mike Huckabee ..............
Rick Santorum................
Jim Gilmore ....................
Bobby Jindal...................
Lindsey Graham .............
George Pataki ................
Scott Walker ...................
Rick Perry.......................
Other (VOL) .................
None (VOL) .................
Not sure .......................

1/16^
33
20
13
12
5
5
3
3
3
1
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
1
1

12/15^
27
22
15
11
3
7
5
2
2
3
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3

10/2529/15^
23
10
11
29
3
8
3
3
2
3
NA
NA
1
1
3

10/1518/15^
25
9
13
22
1
8
7
3
2
3
NA
NA
1
1
5

9/15^
21
5
11
20
3
7
11
6
3
2
1
1
NA
NA
1
2
6

7/15^
19
9
5
10
3
14
3
6
6
1
1
15
3
1
4

6/15^
1
4
14
11
4
22
2
1
7
9
NA
1
17
5
1
1

4/15^
NA
11
18
7
5
23
1
NA
11
5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
14
2
3

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican
Primary
COMBINED CHOICE
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE

Donald Trump ...............
Ted Cruz .......................
Marco Rubio..................
Ben Carson ...................
Jeb Bush .......................
Chris Christie ................
John Kasich ..................
Carly Fiorina..................
Rand Paul .....................
Mike Huckabee .............
Jim Gilmore ...................
Rick Santorum ..............
Bobby Jindal .................
Lindsey Graham............
George Pataki ...............
Scott Walker..................
Rick Perry .....................
Other (VOL) ...............
None (VOL) ................
Not sure .....................

1/16^
47
47
30
19
12
12
8
7
6
5
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
2
2

12/15^
39
40
33
28
12
9
5
11
5
7
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
3
4

10/2529/15^
35
23
24
50
15
6
6
14
6
8
1
1
NA
NA
1
2
5

10/1518/15^
39
17
26
44
17
3
7
18
6
7
1
1
NA
NA
1
2
7

9/15^
31
11
26
35
19
5
8
28
6
8
3
1
NA
NA
3
7

7/15^
30
17
16
21
30
9
4
2
11
11
2
4
24
7
2
5

6/15^
4
11
34
19
40
10
1
3
16
18
NA
1
24
10
1
4

4/15^
NA
18
41
11
37
14
NA
3
20
15
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
27
7
4

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican
Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
Q24a

Study #16027 -- page 17
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Now if you had to choose between ONLY the following candidates running for the Republican primary for
president, which one would you favor (RANDOMIZE :1-5)? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you
lean? (ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.)
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE

Donald Trump ................................................
Ted Cruz ........................................................
Marco Rubio ..................................................
Ben Carson ....................................................
Jeb Bush ........................................................
None (VOL) .................................................
Not sure ......................................................

1/16^
36
25
19
12
7
1
-

12/15^
30
24
21
13
9
1
2

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say
they would vote in the Republican Primary

(ASK IF "JEB BUSH" OR "BEN CARSON" ON Q24a)
Q24b
And, if that candidate were not on the ballot which of the following candidates would be your second choice
(RANDOMIZE :1-3)? ^
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE
AMONG ALL GOP PRIMARY VOTERS

Marco Rubio .....................................................................................
Ted Cruz ...........................................................................................
Donald Trump ...................................................................................
None (VOL) ...................................................................................
Not sure .........................................................................................
Another Candidate Chosen (Q24a) .................................................

8
6
5
81

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote
in the Republican Primary

THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY HIGHEST PERCENTAGE AMONG GOP PRIMARY VOTERS
WITH BUSH AND CARSON VOTERS REASSIGNED ACCORDING TO THEIR SECOND CHOICE

Donald Trump ...................................................................................
Ted Cruz ...........................................................................................
Marco Rubio .....................................................................................
None (VOL) ...................................................................................
Not sure .........................................................................................

40
31
26
2
1

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote
in the Republican Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 18
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

(Q25 AND Q26 ROTATED)
Q25
Now, if you had to choose between ONLY (ROTATE) Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in the Republican
primary for president, which one would you favor? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean?
(ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) ^
Donald Trump ................................................
Ted Cruz ........................................................
Neither (VOL) ..............................................
Not sure ......................................................

43
51
5
1

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

Q26

Now, if you had to choose between ONLY (ROTATE) Donald Trump and Marco Rubio in the Republican
primary for president, which one would you favor? (IF "NOT SURE," ASK:) Well, which way do you lean?
(ACCEPT ONLY ONE ANSWER.) ^
Donald Trump ................................................
Marco Rubio ..................................................
Neither (VOL) ..............................................
Not sure ......................................................

52
45
2
1

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

Moving on…
Q27
When it comes to the current field of Republican primary candidates for president would you say it is a
strong field, meaning it is better than in other elections with many good candidates to choose from, an
average field meaning it is equal to other elections with at least two to three good candidates to choose
from, or a weak field meaning it is less good than in other elections with hardly any good candidates to
choose from?

Strong/many good candidates ............
Average/some good candidates...........
Weak/hardly any good candidates ......
Not sure ............................................

1/16^
47
36
16
1

1/12^
22
52
25
1

12/11^
21
51
27
1

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say
they would vote in the Republican Primary

(Q28, Q29, & Q30 RANDOMIZED)
Q28
Would you describe Donald Trump as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR
"CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Donald Trump is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat
(liberal/conservative)? ^
Very liberal .....................................................
Somewhat liberal ............................................
Moderate ........................................................
Somewhat conservative .................................
Very conservative ...........................................
Not sure ........................................................

8
7
35
23
21
6

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
Q29

Study #16027 -- page 19
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Would you describe Jeb Bush as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR
"CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Jeb Bush is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat
(liberal/conservative)? ^
Very liberal .....................................................
Somewhat liberal ............................................
Moderate ........................................................
Somewhat conservative .................................
Very conservative ...........................................
Not sure ........................................................

2
9
44
29
12
4

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

Q30

Would you describe Ted Cruz as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR
"CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say Ted Cruz is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat
(liberal/conservative)? ^
Very liberal .....................................................
Somewhat liberal ............................................
Moderate ........................................................
Somewhat conservative .................................
Very conservative ...........................................
Not sure ........................................................
Don’t know name (Q6) .................................

1
2
20
20
47
5
5

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

And, thinking about another person…
Q31
Would you describe George W. Bush as (ROTATE) liberal, moderate, or conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR
"CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) And would you say George W. Bush is very (liberal/conservative) or somewhat
(liberal/conservative)? ^
Very liberal .....................................................
Somewhat liberal ............................................
Moderate ........................................................
Somewhat conservative .................................
Very conservative ...........................................
Not sure ........................................................

1
2
41
33
21
2

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

Q32

Thinking about the goals and policies of the next President, would you prefer a president that is (ROTATE)
more conservative or less conservative, or about the same as George W. Bush? (IF "MORE" OR "LESS,"
ASK:) And, would you prefer a president that is much or somewhat (more/less) conservative than George
W. Bush? ^
Much more conservative ...................................
Somewhat more conservative ...........................
Somewhat less conservative .............................
Much less conservative .....................................
About the same .................................................
Not sure ..........................................................

24
19
10
3
43
1

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 20
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Thinking again about the 2016 presidential election…
(Q33-Q36 RANDOMIZED)
Q33
(And,) if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Donald Trump were the Republican
candidate and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump ..................................................
Hillary Clinton ...................................................
Depends (VOL) .............................................
Neither/other (VOL) .......................................
Not sure ........................................................

1/16+
41
51
6
2

10/2512/15+ 29/15+
40
42
50
50
8
6
2
2

9/15+
39
49
10
2

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q34

(And,) if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Marco Rubio were the Republican
candidate and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?

Marco Rubio ........................................
Hillary Clinton ......................................
Depends (VOL) .................................
Neither/other (VOL) ..........................
Not sure ............................................

1/16+
46
47
1
4
2

10/25- 10/1512/15+ 29/15+ 18/15+
48
44
45
45
47
46
5
5
5
2
4
4

6/15+
40
50
8
4

4/15+
43
49
5
3

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q35

(And,) if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Ted Cruz were the Republican candidate
and Hillary Clinton were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?

Ted Cruz .......................................................
Hillary Clinton ................................................
Depends (VOL) ..........................................
Neither/other (VOL) ....................................
Not sure .....................................................

1/16+
45
49
1
4
1

10/1512/15+ 18/15+
45
41
48
49
6
6
1
4

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q36

(And,) if the election for president were held today, and (ROTATE) Donald Trump were the Republican
candidate and Bernie Sanders were the Democratic candidate, for whom would you vote?
10/251/16+ 29/15+ 9/15+
Donald Trump .................................................
39
41
36
Bernie Sanders ...............................................
54
50
52
Depends (VOL) ............................................
1
Neither/other (VOL) ......................................
5
6
8
Not sure .......................................................
1
3
4
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 21
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Moving on…
(Q37 AND Q38 ROTATED)
Q37
Now, has what you have seen, read, or heard so far during the Republican presidential nominating process
made you feel more favorable or less favorable toward the Republican Party or has it had no impact one
way or the other on your feelings toward the Republican Party?
REGISTERED VOTERS+

More favorable ......................
Less favorable .......................
No impact ..............................
Not Sure ..............................

1/16
19
42
38
1

1/12
16
35
49
-

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered
voters.

GOP PRIMARY
VOTERS^

More favorable ......................
Less favorable .......................
No impact ..............................
Not Sure ..............................

1/16
33
23
43
1

1/12
29
17
53
1

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered
voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

Q38

Now, has what you have seen, read, or heard so far during the Democratic presidential nominating process
made you feel more favorable or less favorable toward the Democratic Party or has it had no impact one
way or the other on your feelings toward the Democratic Party?

More favorable ......................
Less favorable .......................
No impact...............................
Not Sure...............................

REGISTERED
VOTERS+
17
28
54
1

DEMOCRATIC
PRIMARY
VOTERS^^
38
7
55
-

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.
^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters
who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 22
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Thinking now about the economy...
Q39a
Now thinking about 2015, were there important and real indications the economy improved a lot, somewhat,
only a little, not at all?

A lot ...............................................
Somewhat .....................................
Only a little ....................................
Not at all ........................................
Not sure .......................................

1/16+*
15
31
26
28
-

1/15
13
37
30
19
1

1/13
7
35
32
25
1

1/12
6
26
36
31
1

1/11
4
31
37
28
-

* Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM A).
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

Q39b

In looking at 2016, do you think that it will be a time of economic expansion for you and your family and an
opportunity to move ahead, or do you think that it will be a time to hold back and save because harder times
are ahead?

Time of expansion/opportunity ...................
Time to hold back/harder times ahead .......
Some of both (VOL) .................................
Not sure ...................................................

1/16+**
32
58
4
6

1/13
34
60
2
4

1/08
19
70
7
4

12/05
29
60
8
3

1/05
40
51
6
3

3/01
32
56
7
5

1/01
29
60
7
4

12/98
32
57
5
6

** Asked of one-half the respondents (FORM B).
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

And, thinking about something else…
Q40
In dealing with ISIS, which concerns you more: (ROTATE) – a policy that is too aggressive and risks a major
American military force on the ground in the Middle East, or a policy that is not aggressive enough and risks
allowing ISIS to expand its power and the territory it controls in the Middle East or do you not know enough to
have an opinion on this at this time?+
Too Aggressive/U.S. ground force .............
Not Aggressive Enough/ISIS expands .......
Do not know enough to have an opinion ....
Not sure ...................................................

26
48
23
3

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 23
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Now, thinking some more about you…
And, on a scale from one to ten where ten represents a description that is perfect for you and one a description that is
totally wrong for you, how well do each of the following describe you? You can, of course, use any number between
one and ten. __ __ (RECORD EXACT NUMBER 1-10, USE 99 FOR DK/REF) To what extent do you regard yourself
as...(RANDOMIZE)
DATA SHOWN AMONG REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS^
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY %8-10
8-10
4-7
A supporter of the traditional definition of marriage as being
between one man and one woman .........................................
65
16

1-3

Refused

18

1

A National Rifle Association supporter....................................

62

24

13

1

A supporter of the Right-to-Life movement .............................

54

24

18

4

Someone who enjoys listening to conservative talk radio .......

37

31

32

-

A supporter of the Tea Party Movement .................................

33

42

21

4

A Libertarian ...........................................................................

11

38

44

7

^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Republican Primary

DATA SHOWN AMONG DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS^^
THIS TABLE HAS BEEN RANKED BY %8-10
8-10
4-7
A supporter of taking immediate action to address climate
change ....................................................................................
67
25

1-3

Refused

5

2

An environmentalist ................................................................

62

34

3

1

A supporter of the gay rights movement .................................

61

24

13

2

A union supporter ...................................................................

54

34

10

2

A supporter of the Black Lives Matter movement ...................

50

35

10

5

A supporter of the Right-to-Life movement .............................

28

24

43

5

A supporter of the traditional definition of marriage as being
between one man and one woman .........................................

26

14

58

2

A National Rifle Association supporter ....................................

15

19

65

2

Someone who enjoys listening to conservative talk radio .......

6

18

74

2

A supporter of the Tea Party Movement .................................

3

13

77

7

^^ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters who say they would vote in the Democratic Primary

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016

Study #16027 -- page 24
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Now I am going to ask you a few questions for statistical purposes only.
QF1b/c A lot of people are unable to get out and vote for many reasons. Did you happen to vote in the November
2012 election for president? (IF “YES,” ASK:) For whom did you vote––Barack Obama, Mitt Romney, or
someone else? +
Voted for Barack Obama ...............................
Voted for Mitt Romney ...................................
Voted for someone else .................................
Not sure .........................................................
No, Did Not Vote ............................................
Not sure .......................................................

44
33
9
2
11
1

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

QF1d

And did you happen to vote in the 2014 election for U.S. Congress? +
Yes, voted ...............................................................
No, did not vote .......................................................
Not sure ..................................................................

63
33
4

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

QF2

Are you currently employed? (IF "CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) What type of work do you do?
(RECORD UNDER "6--OTHER.") (IF "NOT CURRENTLY EMPLOYED," ASK:) Are you a student, a stay-athome mom or dad, retired, or unemployed and looking for work? +
Currently Employed
Professional, manager ............................
White-collar worker .................................
Blue-collar worker ...................................
Farmer, rancher ......................................
Not Currently Employed
Student ....................................................
Stay at home mom/dad ...........................
Retired ....................................................
Unemployed, looking for work .................
Other .......................................................
Not sure ................................................

29
17
17
2
5
25
3
2

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered
voters.

QF3

What is the last grade that you completed in school? (DO NOT READ CHOICES.) +
Grade school ...........................................................
Some high school ....................................................
High school graduate ..............................................
Some college, no degree ........................................
Vocational training/School ......................................
2-year college degree ..............................................
4-year college/bachelor's degree ............................
Some postgraduate work, no degree ......................
2-3 years postgraduate work/master's degree ........
Doctoral/law degree ................................................
Not sure/refused ....................................................
+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

2
20
15
2
13
26
2
14
5
1

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
QF4

Study #16027 -- page 25
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a Democrat, a Republican, an independent, or something
else? (IF "DEMOCRAT" OR "REPUBLICAN," ASK:) Would you call yourself a strong (Democrat/Republican)
or not a very strong (Democrat/Republican)? (IF "NOT SURE," CODE AS "NOT VERY STRONG
DEMOCRAT/REPUBLICAN.") (IF "INDEPENDENT," ASK:) Do you think of yourself as closer to the
Republican Party, closer to the Democratic Party, or do you think of yourself as strictly independent? (IF
"NOT SURE," CODE AS "STRICTLY INDEPENDENT.") +
Strong Democrat .............................
Not very strong Democrat ...............
Independent/lean Democrat ............
Strictly Independent.........................
Independent/lean Republican ..........
Not very strong Republican .............
Strong Republican ...........................
Other (VOL) ...................................
Not sure.........................................

21
11
13
11
13
8
18
3
2

+ Results shown reflect responses among
registered voters.

QF5

Thinking about your general approach to issues, do you consider yourself to be liberal, moderate, or
conservative? (IF "LIBERAL" OR "CONSERVATIVE," ASK:) Do you consider yourself to be very
(liberal/conservative) or somewhat (liberal/conservative)? +
Very liberal .........................................................
Somewhat liberal ...............................................
Moderate ............................................................
Somewhat conservative .....................................
Very conservative ..............................................
Not sure ...........................................................

11
15
37
18
16
3

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

QF6a/b Are you a current or retired labor union member? (ASK ONLY OF RESPONDENTS WHO SAY "NO" OR
"NOT SURE" IN QF6a.) Is anyone else in your household a current or retired labor union member? +
Labor union member ........................................
Union household ..............................................
Non-union household .......................................
Not sure ..........................................................

12
7
79
2

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.

QF7

How often do you attend services at a church, synagogue, mosque, or other place of worship? (READ
LIST.) +
Never .......................................
Once a year .............................
A few times a year ...................
Once a month ..........................
About twice a month ................
Once a week or more often ......
Not sure .................................

24
7
17
7
9
34
2

+ Results shown reflect responses among
registered voters.

HART RESEARCH ASSOCIATES/PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES
January 2016
QF8

Study #16027 -- page 26
NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey

If you added together the yearly income of all the members of your family who were living at home last year,
would the total be less than ten thousand dollars, between ten thousand dollars and twenty thousand
dollars, between twenty thousand dollars and thirty thousand dollars, between thirty thousand dollars and
forty thousand dollars, between forty thousand dollars and fifty thousand dollars, between fifty thousand
dollars and seventy-five thousand dollars, between seventy-five thousand dollars and one hundred thousand
dollars, or would the total be more than that? +
Less than $10,000 ...............................................
Between $10,000 and $20,000............................
Between $20,000 and $30,000............................
Between $30,000 and $40,000............................
Between $40,000 and $50,000............................
Between $50,000 and $75,000............................
Between $75,000 and $100,000..........................
More than $100,000 ............................................
Not sure/refused .................................................

3
7
8
9
9
16
16
27
5

+ Results shown reflect responses among registered voters.