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12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay

12 Lessons From Recent Philippine Disasters - Dr. Alfredo Mahar Francisco a. Lagmay

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Published by J. O. M. Salazar

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Published by: J. O. M. Salazar on Apr 08, 2010
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06/02/2014

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Lessons from recent Philippine disasters

Alfredo Mahar Francisco A. Lagmay
National Institute of Geological Sciences, University of the Philippines

U.P. Academic Forum on Climate Change

Photo from Boston.com

Dec 2005 Typhoon Quedon Mindoro Flooding US$ 0.5 million

Feb. 17, 2006 Guinsaugon landslide 1126 dead US$ 2.203 million

Guinsaugon
Population = 1,857

Nov. 30, 2006 Typhoon Durian 1399 dead US$ 66.4 million

Basud Padang Guinobatan

Bongga
Camalig Daraga

June 20, 2008 Typhoon Fenshen 644 dead US$ 135 million

Advanced technologies needed for disaster mitigation
1. Timely and accurate prediction of rainfall (TRMM and automated rain/river gauges) 2. Accurate Topography (Light Detection and Ranging)

Tropical Rainfall Mapping Mission
• Armed with both a passive microwave sensor and a space-borne precipitation radar • The primary objective of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite (better known as TRMM) is to measure rainfall from space.

NASA SATELLITE GREATLY IMPROVES ACCURACY OF TROPICAL RAINFALL FORECASTING
NASA, Jan 12, 2000 by David E. Steitz, Allen Kenitzer, Stephanie Kenitzer

New research shows that adding rainfall data from NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and other meteorological satellites to forecast models can more than triple the accuracy of short-term rainfall forecasts.

These model properties are then used to predict the rainfall for three days into the future, with remarkable success.

TRMM uses
• Alternative and supplement to groundbased observations for cost-effective flood prediction in under-gauged regions • NASA Applied Science Program in partnership with USAID and AfricanRCMRD to implement an operational water-hazard warning system • To build disaster management capacity

Latest 3 Hourly Global Rainfall

Latest Week of Global Rainfall Accumulation

Latest hurricanes and typhoons observed by the TRMM satellite.

Telemetric rain gauge data sent directly to NASA ground validation team via the internet
Designs of UP (CP David) and Ateneo (MO)
To be put in cell phone towers and churches. + project rain gauge

Hazard map scales
National Scale
• • 1:50,000-1:100,000 Accuracy is low Whole river basin • • •

Local scale
1:5,000 to 1:25,000 Accuracy is high - Cadastral level; Lidar Planning of localised emergency response (i.e. evacuation and access routes, road closures) Public awareness

Broad scale planning for major emergencies

Members of public are interested in flood risk that applies to them

Accurate local level, high resolution hazard maps is a key element to effective disaster preparedness!

2m Resolution LIDAR DSM
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

1m Resolution LIDAR DSM
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

50cm Resolution LIDAR DSM
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

25cm Resolution LIDAR DSM
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

Mobile Terrestrial LIDAR

Optech Lynx™ Mobile Mapper
Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

United Kingdom

Philippines

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

Flood risk model, 48 hour event

(Model type = 2D, Tuflow model, 1m resolution LIDAR data used) Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

Integrated spatial data

Modelling Flood Depth

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

Modelling Flood Velocity

Al Duncan, Geomatic Group, UK

Scenario 6: Fluvial Flood Model – 7 Return Periods

Viewpoint A X = 542290 Y = 108900 Z = 400m Direction 346
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.

Integrated spatial data

Scenario 2: Fluvial 1 in 2 year, Tidal 1 in 200 year, Plus Climate Change

Viewpoint A X = 542290 Y = 108900 Z = 400m Direction 346
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.

Integrated spatial data

Scenario 1: Fluvial 1 in 2 year, Tidal 1 in 200 year

Viewpoint A X = 542290 Y = 108900 Z = 400m Direction 346
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.

Integrated spatial data

Scenario 3: Fluvial 1 in 100 year, MHWS Tide

Viewpoint A X = 542290 Y = 108900 Z = 400m Direction 346
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.

Integrated spatial data

Scenario 4: Fluvial 1 in 100 year, MHWS Tide, Plus Climate Change

Viewpoint A X = 542290 Y = 108900 Z = 400m Direction 346
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.

Integrated spatial data

Scenario 5: Flood Zones Map – 1 in 1,000 year modelled flood

Viewpoint A X = 542290 Y = 108900 Z = 400m Direction 346
© Crown Copyright. All rights reserved. Environment Agency, 100026380, 2009.

Integrated spatial data

GIS enabled website – OS Topographic Map

GIS enabled website – Aerial Photography

GIS enabled website – Historic Flood Map

GIS enabled website – Modelled Flood Map

Investing in knowledge
• Space-based radar, automated rain/river gauge systems and LIDAR are all readily available. • Any serious hazard mitigation program would have to capitalize on these technologies.

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