CBS News Battleground Tracker: Texas, January 2016

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
Texas
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
984 Republican Likely Voters

January 18-21, 2016
4.4%
1. How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?
A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67%
Some . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27%
Not much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
No attention so far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in Texas?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .93%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
3. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Texas Republican Presidential primary
in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters
Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Jim Gilmore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .1%

Texas
4. Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Very strong Ive decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%

Strong I probably wont change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39%
Somewhat strong I might still change . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Not too strong Ill probably keep looking . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
5. What could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?

Asked of Republican primary voters who are not very strongly decided
Convince me they can really win . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%

Convince me they stand with me on the issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Convince me they can be effective in the job . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
Im never completely decided until Election Day . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
None of these . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
6. Youve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could
consider voting for...?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Chris Christie
Jeb Bush
John Kasich
Ben Carson
Yes, could consider

56%
73%
59%
30%
28%
20%
58%
No, could never consider

44%
27%
41%
70%
72%
80%
42%
7. In trying to achieve their goals, do you feel each candidates approach would probably be...
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Too extreme
44%
14%
7%
About right
46%
77%
47%
Too moderate
10%
9%
46%

Texas
8. Do you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Yes, consistent
61%
86%
52%
No, not consistent

39%
14%
48%
9. Regardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these
candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel right now?
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Understands
77%
81%
57%
Doesnt understand
23%
19%
43%
10. Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...
Defend my faith and religious values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%

Win the General election in November . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30%
Fight terrorism . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Shake up politics-as-usual . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Bring back jobs and the American economy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29%
11. Do you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?

Serious . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14%
Not serious . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86%
12. Does Donald Trumps being from New York make you think better of him, worse of him, or
does it not matter to you?
Better . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Worse . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Does not matter . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81%

Texas
13. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?
Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .55%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
14. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?*

Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
15. Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?*
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%
Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
Very Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
16. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?

Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Questions marked with an asterisk are only asked for respondents who had not answered in previous waves.
Earlier responses were used where available.

Texas
17. Are you male or female?
Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47%
18. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
19. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?

White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
20. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%

Texas
1. Attention to Campaign
How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?
Gender
A lot
Some
Not much
No attention so far
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
67%
27%
5%
1%
74%
23%
2%
0%
59%
32%
8%
1%
62%
34%
4%
0%
58%
31%
10%
1%
68%
28%
4%
1%
76%
21%
3%
0%
67%
27%
5%
1%
66%
26%
8%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(519)
(460)
(91)
(186)
(450)
(251)
(847)
100%
(979)
(15)
(92)
(25)

Texas
2. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in Texas?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
93%
6%
1%
0%
0%
0%
95%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
90%
9%
1%
0%
0%
0%
85%
9%
4%
1%
0%
0%
86%
13%
1%
0%
0%
0%
95%
4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
96%
3%
0%
0%
0%
0%
93%
6%
1%
0%
0%
0%
91%
8%
1%
0%
0%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(520)
(464)
(91)
(191)
(452)
(251)
(851)
100%
(984)
(15)
(93)
(25)

Texas
3. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Texas Republican Presidential primary in 2016?
Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
4%
5%
2%
45%
1%
0%
1%
1%
2%
8%
0%
30%
1%
3%
2%
1%
49%
2%
0%
1%
1%
3%
8%
0%
29%
0%
5%
7%
2%
41%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
9%
0%
32%
1%
3%
8%
8%
33%
0%
0%
1%
5%
2%
15%
0%
24%
2%
4%
4%
1%
35%
3%
0%
1%
1%
7%
11%
0%
31%
2%
3%
4%
1%
54%
1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
6%
0%
29%
0%
5%
4%
1%
41%
1%
0%
3%
0%
1%
8%
0%
35%
0%
3%
4%
1%
45%
1%
0%
2%
1%
2%
9%
0%
30%
1%
14%
1%
4%
43%
0%
0%
0%
0%
2%
2%
0%
32%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(518)
(464)
(91)
(190)
(450)
(251)
(849)
100%
(982)
(15)
(93)
(25)

Texas
4. Republican Candidate Support

Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
40%
39%
20%
1%
43%
41%
15%
1%
37%
37%
25%
2%
41%
29%
28%
1%
29%
42%
26%
4%
41%
41%
18%
0%
47%
37%
15%
0%
40%
40%
19%
1%
45%
30%
25%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(517)
(457)
(90)
(187)
(448)
(250)
(843)
100%
(974)
(14)
(92)
(24)

Texas
5. Republican Candidate Certainty

What could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?
Gender
Convince me they can really win
Convince me they stand with me on
the issues
Convince me they can be effective in
the job
Im never completely decided until
Election Day
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
37%
45%
29%
18%
34%
41%
40%
37%
37%
21%
22%
20%
27%
23%
20%
19%
21%
18%
24%
15%
33%
24%
24%
23%
23%
23%
29%
11%
7%
11%
8%
10%
8%
31%
1%
7%
12%
10%
6%
8%
10%
11%
8%
12%
4%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(293)
(282)
(52)
(129)
(263)
(132)
(502)
100%
(575)
(7)
(51)
(15)

Texas
6. Republican Candidate Consideration Donald Trump

Youve told us youre supporting [Candidate Name] are there other candidates you could consider voting for...?
Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
56%
44%
61%
39%
50%
50%
23%
77%
42%
58%
61%
39%
70%
30%
58%
42%
41%
59%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(346)
(290)
(61)
(120)
(303)
(152)
(550)
100%
(635)
(10)
(56)
(19)

Texas
7. Republican Candidate Consideration Ted Cruz

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
73%
27%
76%
24%
70%
30%
51%
49%
66%
34%
75%
25%
84%
16%
77%
23%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(511)
(253)
(259)
(58)
(117)
(195)
(141)
(449)
(9)
(44)
(9)

Texas
8. Republican Candidate Consideration Marco Rubio

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
59%
41%
60%
40%
58%
42%
68%
32%
57%
43%
59%
41%
56%
44%
57%
43%
74%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(435)
(385)
(69)
(160)
(387)
(203)
(704)
100%
(820)
(13)
(81)
(22)

Texas
9. Republican Candidate Consideration Chris Christie

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
30%
70%
33%
67%
27%
73%
42%
58%
28%
72%
29%
71%
31%
69%
31%
69%
30%
70%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(465)
(405)
(76)
(174)
(408)
(213)
(758)
100%
(871)
(13)
(79)
(21)

Texas
10. Republican Candidate Consideration Jeb Bush

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
28%
72%
25%
75%
32%
68%
42%
58%
33%
67%
24%
76%
27%
73%
28%
72%
38%
62%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(453)
(401)
(79)
(168)
(402)
(205)
(744)
100%
(854)
(13)
(76)
(21)
10

Texas
11. Republican Candidate Consideration John Kasich

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
20%
80%
21%
79%
19%
81%
31%
69%
19%
81%
16%
84%
26%
74%
20%
80%
20%
80%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(459)
(403)
(78)
(173)
(400)
(211)
(753)
100%
(862)
(10)
(79)
(21)
11

Texas
12. Republican Candidate Consideration Ben Carson

Gender
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
58%
42%
57%
43%
60%
40%
31%
69%
60%
40%
63%
37%
58%
42%
60%
40%
40%
60%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(463)
(387)
(77)
(173)
(392)
(208)
(747)
100%
(850)
(11)
(75)
(17)
12

Texas
13. Republican Candidate Approach Donald Trump

In trying to achieve their goals, do you feel each candidates approach would probably be...
Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
44%
46%
10%
38%
49%
13%
50%
44%
6%
56%
28%
16%
52%
41%
7%
41%
48%
11%
38%
55%
7%
44%
47%
10%
43%
50%
7%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(517)
(458)
(85)
(191)
(449)
(251)
(849)
100%
(976)
(15)
(87)
(25)
13

Texas
14. Republican Candidate Approach Ted Cruz

Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
14%
77%
9%
13%
80%
7%
15%
73%
12%
30%
67%
3%
19%
68%
13%
11%
80%
8%
9%
81%
11%
13%
78%
9%
17%
71%
12%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(509)
(458)
(90)
(189)
(439)
(249)
(844)
100%
(967)
(13)
(86)
(25)
14

Texas
15. Republican Candidate Approach Marco Rubio

Gender
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
7%
47%
46%
7%
42%
51%
8%
52%
40%
9%
48%
43%
11%
50%
39%
6%
45%
48%
5%
48%
47%
7%
48%
45%
10%
49%
41%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(512)
(451)
(84)
(190)
(439)
(250)
(844)
100%
(964)
(13)
(82)
(25)
15

Texas
16. Republican Candidate Consistency Donald Trump

Do you feel these candidates have been consistent in what they stand for?
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
61%
39%
57%
43%
65%
35%
46%
54%
62%
38%
56%
44%
73%
27%
62%
38%
56%
44%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(515)
(456)
(91)
(186)
(445)
(249)
(839)
100%
(971)
(15)
(92)
(25)
16

Texas
17. Republican Candidate Consistency Ted Cruz

Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
86%
14%
86%
14%
85%
15%
83%
17%
76%
24%
89%
11%
87%
13%
87%
13%
83%
17%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(513)
(442)
(89)
(185)
(436)
(245)
(831)
100%
(955)
(13)
(87)
(25)
17

Texas
18. Republican Candidate Consistency Marco Rubio

Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
52%
48%
44%
56%
61%
39%
58%
42%
56%
44%
52%
48%
46%
54%
52%
48%
54%
46%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(511)
(446)
(89)
(185)
(434)
(249)
(837)
100%
(957)
(10)
(86)
(25)
18

Texas
19. Republican Candidate Understanding Donald Trump

Regardless of who youre supporting, please tell us whether you feel each of these candidates gets it that is, understands how you and people like you feel right
now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
77%
23%
79%
21%
75%
25%
51%
49%
64%
36%
84%
16%
83%
17%
79%
21%
63%
37%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(516)
(463)
(91)
(191)
(451)
(246)
(847)
100%
(979)
(15)
(93)
(25)
19

Texas
20. Republican Candidate Understanding Ted Cruz

now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
81%
19%
83%
17%
80%
20%
70%
30%
69%
31%
85%
15%
88%
12%
83%
17%
67%
33%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(518)
(456)
(91)
(189)
(446)
(248)
(848)
100%
(974)
(15)
(87)
(25)
20

Texas
21. Republican Candidate Understanding Marco Rubio

now?
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
57%
43%
53%
47%
62%
38%
61%
39%
56%
44%
60%
40%
51%
49%
56%
44%
79%
21%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(516)
(451)
(91)
(189)
(439)
(248)
(845)
100%
(967)
(11)
(87)
(25)
21

Texas
22. Republican Vote Reasons

Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...
Gender
Defend my faith and religious values
Win the General election in November
Fight terrorism
Shake up politics-as-usual
Bring back jobs and the American
economy
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
13%
30%
12%
16%
9%
34%
7%
23%
18%
25%
17%
9%
7%
10%
11%
28%
13%
30%
17%
13%
13%
28%
8%
18%
16%
40%
15%
12%
13%
31%
12%
16%
3%
22%
13%
23%
29%
27%
31%
44%
28%
32%
18%
27%
38%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(519)
(459)
(91)
(186)
(450)
(251)
(845)
100%
(978)
(15)
(93)
(25)
22

Texas
23. Ted Cruz Birthplace

Do you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?
Gender
Serious
Not serious
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
14%
86%
14%
86%
14%
86%
20%
80%
26%
74%
11%
89%
9%
91%
14%
86%
13%
87%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(519)
(464)
(91)
(191)
(450)
(251)
(850)
100%
(983)
(15)
(93)
(25)
23

Texas
24. Donald Trump NY Values

Does Donald Trumps being from New York make you think better of him, worse of him, or does it not matter to you?
Gender
Better
Worse
Does not matter
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
3%
16%
81%
2%
20%
78%
3%
13%
84%
2%
17%
82%
2%
17%
80%
4%
19%
77%
1%
12%
87%
2%
16%
82%
8%
20%
73%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(519)
(464)
(91)
(191)
(452)
(250)
(851)
100%
(983)
(15)
(93)
(25)
24

Texas Likely Republican Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
984 Likely Republican Primary Voters

January 18-21, 2016
4.4%
1. Attention to Campaign
How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2016 Presidential campaign so far?
Ideology
A lot
Some
Not much
No attention so far
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
67%
27%
5%
1%
77%
19%
3%
1%
64%
31%
5%
0%
58%
38%
2%
2%
77%
20%
2%
1%
56%
35%
8%
1%
66%
27%
6%
1%
73%
24%
3%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(979)
(430)
(373)
(113)
(531)
(434)
(620)
(307)
Gender
A lot
Some
Not much
No attention so far
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
67%
27%
5%
1%
74%
23%
2%
0%
59%
32%
8%
1%
62%
34%
4%
0%
58%
31%
10%
1%
68%
28%
4%
1%
76%
21%
3%
0%
66%
29%
5%
1%
77%
20%
3%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(979)
(519)
(460)
(91)
(186)
(450)
(251)
(770)
(165)

2. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the Texas Republican Presidential primary in 2016?
Ideology
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
4%
5%
2%
45%
1%
0%
1%
1%
2%
8%
0%
30%
1%
2%
3%
0%
57%
0%
0%
3%
0%
1%
5%
0%
30%
0%
4%
8%
1%
41%
2%
0%
0%
1%
3%
11%
0%
28%
1%
6%
3%
10%
15%
3%
0%
0%
4%
4%
15%
1%
37%
1%
1%
3%
1%
58%
1%
0%
2%
0%
1%
3%
0%
29%
0%
7%
6%
3%
28%
2%
0%
1%
2%
4%
14%
0%
31%
2%
3%
6%
0%
46%
1%
0%
2%
1%
2%
8%
0%
30%
1%
6%
2%
5%
42%
1%
0%
0%
2%
2%
8%
0%
30%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(982)
(430)
(374)
(111)
(532)
(436)
(624)
(307)
Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
4%
5%
2%
45%
1%
0%
1%
1%
2%
8%
0%
30%
1%
3%
2%
1%
49%
2%
0%
1%
1%
3%
8%
0%
29%
0%
5%
7%
2%
41%
1%
0%
1%
1%
1%
9%
0%
32%
1%
3%
8%
8%
33%
0%
0%
1%
5%
2%
15%
0%
24%
2%
4%
4%
1%
35%
3%
0%
1%
1%
7%
11%
0%
31%
2%
3%
4%
1%
54%
1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
6%
0%
29%
0%
5%
4%
1%
41%
1%
0%
3%
0%
1%
8%
0%
35%
0%
5%
5%
1%
46%
1%
0%
2%
1%
2%
9%
0%
29%
1%
1%
3%
5%
41%
3%
0%
0%
3%
3%
7%
0%
34%
1%
continued on the next page . . .

continued from previous page

Age group
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(982)
(518)
(464)
(91)
(190)
(450)
(251)
(768)
(165)

3. Republican Candidate Support

Which best describes your support for [First Choice Candidate Name] right now?
Ideology
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
40%
39%
20%
1%
49%
39%
11%
1%
32%
45%
22%
1%
30%
26%
41%
3%
48%
39%
12%
1%
31%
38%
29%
2%
42%
39%
18%
1%
40%
38%
21%
1%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(974)
(430)
(371)
(110)
(532)
(429)
(619)
(306)
Gender
Very strong
Strong
Somewhat strong
Not too strong
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
40%
39%
20%
1%
43%
41%
15%
1%
37%
37%
25%
2%
41%
29%
28%
1%
29%
42%
26%
4%
41%
41%
18%
0%
47%
37%
15%
0%
40%
40%
20%
1%
38%
39%
21%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(974)
(517)
(457)
(90)
(187)
(448)
(250)
(762)
(163)

4. Republican Candidate Certainty

What could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?
Ideology
the issues
the job
Election Day
None of these
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
37%
37%
41%
33%
40%
35%
39%
38%
21%
23%
20%
16%
22%
21%
21%
21%
24%
19%
21%
35%
21%
24%
22%
24%
11%
7%
11%
9%
11%
7%
6%
10%
10%
7%
12%
9%
10%
9%
11%
6%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(575)
(218)
(251)
(77)
(275)
(289)
(356)
(183)
Gender
the issues
the job
Election Day
None of these
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
37%
45%
29%
18%
34%
41%
40%
39%
31%
21%
22%
20%
27%
23%
20%
19%
19%
28%
24%
15%
33%
24%
24%
23%
23%
24%
24%
11%
7%
11%
8%
10%
8%
31%
1%
7%
12%
10%
6%
8%
10%
11%
8%
9%
8%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(575)
(293)
(282)
(52)
(129)
(263)
(132)
(458)
(101)

5. Republican Candidate Consideration Donald Trump

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
56%
44%
61%
39%
53%
47%
53%
47%
69%
31%
39%
61%
55%
45%
60%
40%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(635)
(279)
(258)
(63)
(356)
(271)
(404)
(201)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
56%
44%
61%
39%
50%
50%
23%
77%
42%
58%
61%
39%
70%
30%
55%
45%
62%
38%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(635)
(346)
(290)
(61)
(120)
(303)
(152)
(514)
(99)

6. Republican Candidate Consideration Ted Cruz

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
73%
27%
86%
14%
74%
26%
54%
46%
88%
12%
62%
38%
79%
21%
65%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(511)
(177)
(211)
(90)
(216)
(290)
(315)
(172)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
73%
27%
76%
24%
70%
30%
51%
49%
66%
34%
75%
25%
84%
16%
77%
23%
55%
45%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(511)
(253)
(259)
(58)
(117)
(195)
(141)
(397)
(91)

7. Republican Candidate Consideration Marco Rubio

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
59%
41%
55%
45%
66%
34%
63%
37%
58%
42%
62%
38%
58%
42%
65%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(820)
(368)
(307)
(90)
(470)
(337)
(516)
(260)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
59%
41%
60%
40%
58%
42%
68%
32%
57%
43%
59%
41%
56%
44%
62%
38%
49%
51%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(820)
(435)
(385)
(69)
(160)
(387)
(203)
(636)
(147)

8. Republican Candidate Consideration Chris Christie

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
30%
70%
28%
72%
34%
66%
35%
65%
28%
72%
34%
66%
27%
73%
39%
61%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(871)
(382)
(342)
(94)
(478)
(379)
(557)
(266)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
30%
70%
33%
67%
27%
73%
42%
58%
28%
72%
29%
71%
31%
69%
32%
68%
25%
75%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(871)
(465)
(405)
(76)
(174)
(408)
(213)
(694)
(144)

9. Republican Candidate Consideration Jeb Bush

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
28%
72%
20%
80%
32%
68%
45%
55%
18%
82%
43%
57%
27%
73%
30%
70%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(854)
(382)
(329)
(98)
(478)
(362)
(548)
(260)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
28%
72%
25%
75%
32%
68%
42%
58%
33%
67%
24%
76%
27%
73%
30%
70%
18%
82%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(854)
(453)
(401)
(79)
(168)
(402)
(205)
(663)
(152)
10

10. Republican Candidate Consideration John Kasich

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
20%
80%
19%
81%
21%
79%
28%
72%
20%
80%
21%
79%
21%
79%
21%
79%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(862)
(374)
(338)
(100)
(473)
(376)
(541)
(274)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
20%
80%
21%
79%
19%
81%
31%
69%
19%
81%
16%
84%
26%
74%
20%
80%
22%
78%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(862)
(459)
(403)
(78)
(173)
(400)
(211)
(683)
(148)
11

11. Republican Candidate Consideration Ben Carson

Ideology
Yes, could consider
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
58%
42%
67%
33%
55%
45%
36%
64%
67%
33%
46%
54%
60%
40%
55%
45%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(850)
(379)
(321)
(102)
(474)
(363)
(534)
(268)
Gender
Yes, could consider
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
58%
42%
57%
43%
60%
40%
31%
69%
60%
40%
63%
37%
58%
42%
58%
42%
59%
41%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(850)
(463)
(387)
(77)
(173)
(392)
(208)
(662)
(151)
12

12. Republican Candidate Approach Donald Trump

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
44%
46%
10%
36%
51%
12%
50%
41%
9%
48%
50%
2%
31%
54%
15%
59%
37%
4%
43%
45%
12%
45%
49%
6%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(976)
(429)
(373)
(113)
(532)
(430)
(625)
(305)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
44%
46%
10%
38%
49%
13%
50%
44%
6%
56%
28%
16%
52%
41%
7%
41%
48%
11%
38%
55%
7%
45%
45%
10%
40%
50%
10%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(976)
(517)
(458)
(85)
(191)
(449)
(251)
(764)
(164)
13

13. Republican Candidate Approach Ted Cruz

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
14%
77%
9%
5%
90%
6%
17%
74%
9%
36%
48%
16%
5%
89%
6%
25%
62%
13%
11%
81%
8%
20%
70%
10%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(967)
(419)
(370)
(113)
(528)
(426)
(612)
(304)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
14%
77%
9%
13%
80%
7%
15%
73%
12%
30%
67%
3%
19%
68%
13%
11%
80%
8%
9%
81%
11%
12%
78%
10%
23%
69%
8%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(967)
(509)
(458)
(90)
(189)
(439)
(249)
(763)
(163)
14

14. Republican Candidate Approach Marco Rubio

Ideology
Tea Party
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
7%
47%
46%
4%
41%
55%
8%
52%
40%
16%
53%
31%
4%
40%
55%
11%
56%
33%
7%
48%
46%
7%
49%
44%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(964)
(419)
(371)
(113)
(526)
(424)
(615)
(305)
Gender
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
Too extreme
About right
Too moderate
7%
47%
46%
7%
42%
51%
8%
52%
40%
9%
48%
43%
11%
50%
39%
6%
45%
48%
5%
48%
47%
6%
50%
44%
12%
36%
52%
Totals
(Weighted N)
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(964)
(512)
(451)
(84)
(190)
(439)
(250)
(758)
(163)
15

15. Republican Candidate Consistency Donald Trump

Ideology
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
61%
39%
58%
42%
59%
41%
69%
31%
60%
40%
61%
39%
60%
40%
61%
39%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(971)
(429)
(368)
(113)
(526)
(431)
(620)
(300)
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
61%
39%
57%
43%
65%
35%
46%
54%
62%
38%
56%
44%
73%
27%
61%
39%
58%
42%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(971)
(515)
(456)
(91)
(186)
(445)
(249)
(764)
(163)
16

16. Republican Candidate Consistency Ted Cruz

Ideology
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
86%
14%
92%
8%
83%
17%
65%
35%
91%
9%
78%
22%
85%
15%
86%
14%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(955)
(424)
(364)
(105)
(524)
(418)
(603)
(301)
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
86%
14%
86%
14%
85%
15%
83%
17%
76%
24%
89%
11%
87%
13%
87%
13%
78%
22%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(955)
(513)
(442)
(89)
(185)
(436)
(245)
(755)
(161)
17

17. Republican Candidate Consistency Marco Rubio

Ideology
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
52%
48%
43%
57%
58%
42%
57%
43%
42%
58%
63%
37%
51%
49%
51%
49%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(957)
(421)
(367)
(108)
(525)
(419)
(605)
(302)
Gender
Yes, consistent
No, not consistent
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
52%
48%
44%
56%
61%
39%
58%
42%
56%
44%
52%
48%
46%
54%
54%
46%
42%
58%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(957)
(511)
(446)
(89)
(185)
(434)
(249)
(761)
(158)
18

18. Republican Candidate Understanding Donald Trump

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
77%
23%
84%
16%
76%
24%
69%
31%
86%
14%
66%
34%
78%
22%
76%
24%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(979)
(429)
(370)
(113)
(531)
(435)
(622)
(306)
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
77%
23%
79%
21%
75%
25%
51%
49%
64%
36%
84%
16%
83%
17%
76%
24%
83%
17%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(979)
(516)
(463)
(91)
(191)
(451)
(246)
(766)
(164)
19

19. Republican Candidate Understanding Ted Cruz

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
81%
19%
94%
6%
76%
24%
57%
43%
93%
7%
67%
33%
83%
17%
78%
22%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(974)
(425)
(370)
(113)
(532)
(429)
(618)
(305)
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
81%
19%
83%
17%
80%
20%
70%
30%
69%
31%
85%
15%
88%
12%
83%
17%
74%
26%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(974)
(518)
(456)
(91)
(189)
(446)
(248)
(767)
(164)
20

20. Republican Candidate Understanding Marco Rubio

now?
Ideology
Understands
Doesnt understand
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
57%
43%
55%
45%
57%
43%
56%
44%
54%
46%
60%
40%
57%
43%
58%
42%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(967)
(423)
(371)
(108)
(531)
(423)
(612)
(305)
Gender
Understands
Doesnt understand
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
57%
43%
53%
47%
62%
38%
61%
39%
56%
44%
60%
40%
51%
49%
59%
41%
49%
51%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(967)
(516)
(451)
(91)
(189)
(439)
(248)
(764)
(160)
21

21. Republican Vote Reasons

Whats most important: picking the candidate best prepared to...
Ideology
Fight terrorism
economy
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
13%
30%
12%
16%
18%
29%
8%
20%
9%
36%
13%
14%
11%
26%
11%
12%
12%
31%
11%
21%
15%
30%
14%
11%
19%
31%
9%
16%
2%
29%
15%
18%
29%
24%
27%
40%
26%
30%
24%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(978)
(429)
(374)
(112)
(531)
(433)
(620)
(307)
Gender
Fight terrorism
economy
Tea Party
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
13%
30%
12%
16%
9%
34%
7%
23%
18%
25%
17%
9%
7%
10%
11%
28%
13%
30%
17%
13%
13%
28%
8%
18%
16%
40%
15%
12%
13%
33%
13%
14%
14%
21%
6%
23%
29%
27%
31%
44%
28%
32%
18%
27%
36%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(978)
(519)
(459)
(91)
(186)
(450)
(251)
(770)
(163)
22

22. Ted Cruz Birthplace

Do you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?
Ideology
Serious
Not serious
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
14%
86%
15%
85%
12%
88%
16%
84%
11%
89%
18%
82%
15%
85%
13%
87%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(983)
(429)
(373)
(113)
(532)
(437)
(626)
(306)
Gender
Serious
Not serious
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
14%
86%
14%
86%
14%
86%
20%
80%
26%
74%
11%
89%
9%
91%
15%
85%
14%
86%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(983)
(519)
(464)
(91)
(191)
(450)
(251)
(769)
(165)
23

23. Donald Trump NY Values

Does Donald Trumps being from New York make you think better of him, worse of him, or does it not matter to you?
Ideology
Better
Worse
Does not matter
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
3%
16%
81%
4%
21%
75%
2%
14%
84%
2%
7%
91%
2%
21%
77%
4%
11%
86%
2%
17%
81%
4%
16%
80%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(983)
(430)
(374)
(113)
(532)
(438)
(625)
(307)
Gender
Better
Worse
Does not matter
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
3%
16%
81%
2%
20%
78%
3%
13%
84%
2%
17%
82%
2%
17%
80%
4%
19%
77%
1%
12%
87%
2%
16%
82%
1%
20%
79%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(983)
(519)
(464)
(91)
(191)
(452)
(250)
(770)
(164)
24

CBS News Battleground Tracker: Texas, January 2016

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CBS News Battleground Tracker: Texas, January 2016

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

984 Republican Likely Voters

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

Very strong Ive decided . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%

5. What could [Candidate Name] do to make you completely decided?

Convince me they can really win . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37%

Yes, could consider

No, could never consider

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

No, not consistent

Defend my faith and religious values . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%

11. Do you think Ted Cruzs birthplace is a serious issue or not?

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

14. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?*

16. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

19. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?

20. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

3. First Choice Republican Candidate

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

4. Republican Candidate Support

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

5. Republican Candidate Certainty

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

6. Republican Candidate Consideration Donald Trump

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

7. Republican Candidate Consideration Ted Cruz

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

8. Republican Candidate Consideration Marco Rubio

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

9. Republican Candidate Consideration Chris Christie

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

10. Republican Candidate Consideration Jeb Bush

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

11. Republican Candidate Consideration John Kasich

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

12. Republican Candidate Consideration Ben Carson

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

13. Republican Candidate Approach Donald Trump

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

14. Republican Candidate Approach Ted Cruz

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

15. Republican Candidate Approach Marco Rubio

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

16. Republican Candidate Consistency Donald Trump

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

17. Republican Candidate Consistency Ted Cruz

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

18. Republican Candidate Consistency Marco Rubio

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

19. Republican Candidate Understanding Donald Trump

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

20. Republican Candidate Understanding Ted Cruz

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

21. Republican Candidate Understanding Marco Rubio

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

22. Republican Vote Reasons

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker