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MANITOBA

[JANUARY 27, 2016

EMBARGOED UNTIL: 6 AM EST - JANUARY 27, 2016
PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,628 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR™ on January
25th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.43%, 19
times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.47%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.4%;
19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by age and gender based on the 2011 Census.

The more interesting race right now is who the non-PC alternative will be . Interestingly while her support in Winnipeg is higher.david@mainstreetresearch. it is Rana Bokhari’s visibility: 41% don’t know what to make of her yet.ca For more information: David Valentin. Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion.” finished Maggi. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta. “These kinds of results this far out make it Brian Palister’s race to lose. Liberals 20% (-7%). President of Mainstreet Research. With over half the province indicating they will vote PC and 2/3 of those voters saying they have made up their mind it will take a lot to displace him at the top of the polls. ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the PC Party continuing to lead in Manitoba with the Liberals NDP and NDP tied for second.2. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government. Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently. “Those numbers drop for the NDP (64%) and Liberals (55%) so there is potential for movement. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”. NDP 20% (-3%). “They now have almost twice the support of either the Liberals or NDP in Winnipeg. Palister meanwhile is solid throughout the province. Support for Mr. quito@mainstreetresearch.49%. For the NDP.if there isn’t one it could be a landslide win for the PCs. With both parties in second place the race to be the PC alternative may be the most crucial.” “In the race to be the PC alternative both the NDP and Liberals face challenges. it is Greg Selinger’s high disapproval rating: 60% of Manitobans disapprove of the job he’s doing.A2 "Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. About Mainstreet Research Mainstreet is a national public research firm. 19 times out of 20. (613) 698-5524 . the support she has in the rest of the province is actually stronger. Differentiated by its large sample sizes. For the Liberals.ca . 2016 (Toronto. -30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/. Greens 9% (+3%) “Most PC voters (76%) have decided they’ve made up their mind.” Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 52% (+8%). while they hold an even larger lead in the rest of the province. President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. If the Liberals and NDP spit the non-PC vote it could lead to a lot of surprise PC wins on election night.” continued Maggi. PCs DOMINATING January 27. “The PCs are continuing to dominate throughout the province” said Quito Maggi.

A3 If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? 15% 26% 7% 39% 14% NDP PC NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME UNDECIDED SAMPLE NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME UNDECIDED SAMPLE Liberal Green 18-34 16% 34% 9% 9% 33% 172 35-49 12% 37% 22% 8% 21% 388 Undecided 50-64 16% 37% 15% 5% 26% 495 65+ Male Female 15% 14% 15% 49% 40% 37% 10% 13% 15% 3% 7% 6% 23% 26% 26% 573 770 858 Winnipeg 18% 33% 15% 8% 27% 797 Rest of MB 10% 49% 12% 5% 24% 831 .

A4 If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED AND LEANING) 9% 20% 20% 52% NDP PC NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME Liberal 18-34 20% 50% 14% 15% Green 35-49 17% 47% 27% 9% 50-64 21% 49% 23% 7% 65+ Male Female 20% 19% 20% 63% 53% 50% 14% 19% 21% 4% 10% 9% Winnipeg 23% 46% 21% 10% Rest of MB 14% 61% 17% 8% .

A5 And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY) 7% 19% 60% 10% 5% NDP PC Liberal Green Undecided .

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? NDP Strong 64% Might Change 28% Not Sure 8% PC Strong 76% Might Change 16% Not Sure 8% LIBERAL Strong 55% Might Change 28% Not Sure 17% .A6 Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party.

A7 And who would be your second choice? [MIGHT CHANGE/NOT SURE ONLY] PC 17% UD 23% UD 27% NDP 32% GPC 4% GP 17% MLP 43% MLP 37% PC VOTERS NDP VOTERS UD 15% UD 21% PC 33% PC 36% GP 9% MLP 33% NDP 11% NDP 43% LIBERAL VOTERS GREEN PARTY VOTERS .

A8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rana Bokhari is handling her job as Liberal Leader? 10% 10% 26% 15% 8% 41% 41% 15% 8% STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE NOT SURE STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE NOT SURE 26% 18-34 13% 23% 10% 11% 43% 35-49 11% 28% 16% 4% 42% 50-64 6% 28% 17% 9% 41% 65+ 8% 27% 17% 11% 37% Winnipeg 7% 31% 16% 8% 38% Male Female 10% 9% 27% 25% 14% 15% 8% 8% 40% 42% Rest of MB 15% 18% 13% 8% 46% .

A9 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Selinger is handling his job as NDP Leader? 11% 11% 11% 18% 18% 42% 11% 18% 42% 18% STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE NOT SURE STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE NOT SURE 18-34 15% 19% 13% 42% 11% 35-49 8% 19% 23% 40% 11% 50-64 10% 17% 18% 43% 13% 65+ Male Female 11% 10% 13% 18% 17% 19% 18% 18% 18% 45% 46% 38% 8% 9% 13% Winnipeg 12% 22% 19% 37% 11% Rest of MB 10% 12% 16% 51% 11% .

A10 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brian Pallister is handling his job as PC Leader? 16% 21% 21% 31% 15% 16% 16% 16% 31% 15% STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE NOT SURE STRONGLY APPROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY DISAPPROVE NOT SURE 18-34 23% 25% 9% 20% 24% 35-49 18% 33% 20% 14% 15% 50-64 18% 32% 16% 19% 15% 65+ 28% 37% 17% 10% 9% Winnipeg 17% 32% 18% 15% 18% Male Female 25% 18% 28% 34% 15% 15% 19% 14% 14% 19% Rest of MB 28% 29% 10% 19% 14% .

or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? Strong Supporter Might Change Mind Not Sure And who would be your second choice? NDP led by Greg Selinger Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari Green Party led James Beddome Undecided Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rana Bokhari is handling her job as Liberal Leader? Do you approve or disapprove of the way Greg Selinger is handling his job as NDP Leader? Do you approve or disapprove of the way Brian Pallister is handling his job as Progressive Conservative Leader? Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprove Strongly Disapprove . which party are you leaning towards? [Undecided Only] NDP led by Greg Selinger Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari Green Party led James Beddome Undecided Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party.A11 If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? NDP led by Greg Selinger Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari Green Party led James Beddome Undecided And.

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc. 2015 Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East | Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada .” ." released Oct. November 4th. a week before we voted. Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013. The Tyee. because it’s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. in defiance of the majority of the polls.Shannon Rupp. of Mainstreet Public Research. 18. Quito Maggi. was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence.ONLY WE CALLED THE LIBERAL MAJORITY. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a political campaign.

Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion. CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE mainstreetresearch. Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. Most recently. having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government.Mainstreet is a national public research firm. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election.ca TWITTER @MainStResearch FACEBOOK fb. Differentiated by its large sample sizes.com/mainstresearch © 2015 Mainstreet Research. President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. All rights reserved .