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THE DES MOINES REGISTER/ BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY
602 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.0 percentage points for Republicans
602 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.0 percentage points for Democrats

Study #2133
January 26-29, 2016
3,019 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Poll Questions
PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.
Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?
100
-

Yes
No
Not sure

Continue
Terminate

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016—will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or
the Republican caucus? (Continue if definitely or probably attend one of the caucuses.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Definitely
attend
Democratic
caucus
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

Probably
attend
Democratic
caucus

Definitely
attend
Republican
caucus

Probably
attend
Republican
caucus

Probably not
attend a
caucus

Don’t know
which caucus
will attend

Not sure

-

-

57

43

-

-

-

-

-

49
48
46
47
36
40
39

51
52
54
53
64
60
61

-

-

-

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016—will you definitely attend,
probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or
the Republican caucus? (Continue if definitely or probably attend one of the caucuses.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

Definitely
attend
Democratic
caucus

Probably
attend
Democratic
caucus

Definitely
attend
Republican
caucus

Probably
attend
Republican
caucus

65

35

-

-

-

-

-

63
48
53
38
45
39
42
39

37
52
47
62
55
61
58
61

-

-

-

-

-

Probably not
attend a
caucus

Don’t know
which caucus
will attend

Not sure

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
Among likely Republican caucusgoers
Attended
Republican
caucus in the
past
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

Attended
Democratic
caucus in the
past

Attended
both

First
caucus

Not
sure

46

5

8

40

1

59
60
66
64
68
67
72

5
4
3
3
4
1
2

7
12
13
12
11
15
11

29
24
17
21
17
17
14

1
1
1
1

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a
Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers
Attended
Republican
caucus in the
past
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

Attended
Democratic
caucus in the
past

Attended
both

First
caucus

Not
sure

5

55

5

34

-

3
4
3
3
3
7
12

61
65
70
65
68
61
63

9
7
8
12
9
11
12

26
25
19
19
18
21
12

1
1
1
1

Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first
choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure
No first choice

First
Choice

Second
Choice

45
3
42

26
16
28

4
5

9
11
10

Combined

71
19
70

Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first
choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Hillary Clinton

Martin O’Malley

Bernie Sanders

“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if
respondent says the word
“uncommitted.”)

Not sure

No first choice

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

First

Second

Combined

45

26

71

42
48
42
37
50
57
56

29
27
31
23
18
15
15

71
75
73
60
68
72
71

3

16

19

4
4
2
3
2
2
1

11
19
6
8
10
3
3

15
23
8
11
12
5
4

42

28

70

40
39
37
30
24
16
5

32
33
23
20
20
13
6

72
72
60
50
44
29
11

4

9

7
6
3
6
7
6
4

5
3
3
3
8
6
3

5

11

7
2
3
8
16
8
6
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

10
9
7
6
19
13
8

10
14
8
6
13
23
14
10

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among all Dem CGs
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=602
n=503
n=404
n=402

±4.0% pts
±4.4% pts
±4.9% pts
±4.9% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
Sure

69

30

1

59
53
42

40
46
58

1
1
-

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Clinton supporters
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=282
n=232
n=205
n=176

±5.8% pts
±6.4% pts
±6.9% pts
±7.4% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

83

16

1

69
64
46

29
35
54

1
1
-

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Sanders supporters
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=242
n=182
n=149
n=138

±6.3% pts
±7.3% pts
±8.1% pts
±8.4% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

69

29

1

70
55
46

30
45
53

1

Was there ever a time when you supported Hillary Clinton as your first choice—either in this campaign or when
she ran in 2007 and 2008? (If yes, specify. Asked only of Sanders supporters.)
Sanders
supporters
n=242
±6.3% pts

65
17
12
5
2

No, never supported Clinton as first choice
Yes, supported Clinton in 2007-2008, but not in 2015-2016
Yes, supported Clinton in 2015-2016, but not 2007-2008
Yes, supported Clinton in both campaigns
Not sure

For how long have you been supporting Bernie Sanders—a few days, a few weeks, a few months or longer than
that? (Asked only of current Sanders supporters who supported Clinton at some point during the 20152016 campaign, but based on all Sanders supporters.)
Sanders
supporters
n=242
±6.3% pts

82
2
4
7
2
2

Never supported Clinton as first choice this caucus cycle
Supported Clinton this cycle, but now have supported Sanders for a few days
Supported Clinton this cycle, but now have supported Sanders for a few weeks
Supported Clinton this cycle, but now have supported Sanders for a few months
Supported Clinton this cycle, but now have supported Sanders for longer than a few months
Not sure
Not sure if ever supported Clinton (from previous question)

Was there ever a time during this campaign when you supported Bernie Sanders as your first choice? (If yes:)
For how long have you been supporting Hillary Clinton—a few days, a few weeks, a few months or longer than
that? (Asked only of Clinton supporters.)
Clinton
supporters
n=282
±5.8% pts

87
1
6
3
2
-

No, never supported Sanders as first choice
Yes, supported Sanders, but now have supported Clinton for a few days
Yes, supported Sanders, but now have supported Clinton for a few weeks
Yes, supported Sanders, but now have supported Clinton for a few months
Yes, supported Sanders, but now have supported Clinton for longer than a few months
Not sure

Now, I’m going to mention some prominent politicians [before Dec-15: prominent Democrats], including [Before Aug-15:
people talked about as possible] presidential candidates [Before Jan-16: candidates for the Democratic nomination for
president]. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very
unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not
sure.” Rotate list, but Obama must always go first and Biden through Bloomberg will go last.)
Among likely Democratic
caucusgoers
Barack Obama

Hillary Clinton

Fav

Unf

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15

90

9

55

35

6

3

1

91*
87*
90
88
91
89
86

8
11
7*
9
7
9
13

59
50
51
43
44
49
49

31
36
39
45
47
40
37

5
5
4
5
5
6
5

3
6
4
4
2
3
8

2
2
2
2
2
2
1

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

81

17

43

38

9

8

2

86
82
85
77
88
86*
84
76

12
14
14
19
10
12*
15
19

42
43
39
27
30
39
46
43

44
39
46
50
58
46
38
33

7
8
8
10
6
7
7
8

5
6
6
9
4
6
8
11

2
4
2
4
2
2
1
5

Among likely Democratic
caucusgoers
Martin O’Malley

Bernie Sanders

Bill Clinton

Elizabeth Warren

Joe Biden

John Kerry
Michael Bloomberg

Fav

Unf

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

46

13

12

34

8

5

41

48
43
43
33
20*
13
13

10
15*
17*
7*
8
9
9

10
7
8
8
4
2
2

38
36
35
25
17
11
11

7
9
14
5
5
6
7

3
5
4
3
3
3
2

42
42
39
60
72
78
78

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
Jun-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

82

12

42

40

8

4

6

89
80
82
73
57
47
37
29

6
12*
10*
8
4
12
12
13

49
42
42
39
27
23
17
10

40
38
40
34
30
24
20
19

4
7
6
4
3
8
8
8

2
4
3
4
1
4
4
5

5
9
8
19
39
41
51
58

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Jun-15

86

11*

44

42

8

4

3

87
90*

10
7

47
45

40
44

6
5

4
2

3
3

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

47

7

30

17

4

3

46

56
53
62
58
44

6
11*
9
11
11

36
31
31
30
23

20
22
31
28
21

4
7
6
6
6

2
5
3
5
5

38
35
28
31
45

late Jan-16
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

81

11*

41

40

7

5

7

85
79*
76
78
60

10
14
20
20
34

36
29
22
25
15

49
51
54
53
45

7
8
14
14
19

3
6
6
6
15

5
7
4
2
6

late Jan-16
Oct-14

65*

18

21

43

12

6

17

60

31

13

47

18

13

9

late Jan-16

17

26

2

15

17

9

57

*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best
estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly
favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.
For each of these candidates, please tell me how enthusiastic your support would be if the person became the
Democratic nominee—would you be very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, just OK with it, or not OK with it?
(Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Democratic
caucusgoers

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders

Very/fairly
enthusiastic

73
69

Just/not
OK with it

26
30

Very
enthusiastic

Fairly
enthusiastic

Just OK
with it

Not OK
with it

53
49

20
20

14
22

12
8

Not
Sure

1
2

For each of the following statements, please tell me if you strongly agree, mostly agree, mostly disagree, or strongly
disagree. (Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Agree

Disagree

Strongly
agree

Mostly
agree

Mostly
disagree

Strongly
disagree

Not
Sure

80

11

42

39

8

3

9

68*

25

31

38

16

9

7

It is time for a woman president
It would be OK to have a president
who describes himself as a
democratic socialist

Regardless of whom you support, for each of the following, please tell me if you have become more comfortable or less
comfortable with the scenario, or if you’ve not really changed. (Read items. Rotate.)
More
Less
comfortable comfortable

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Hillary Clinton winning the nomination
Bernie Sanders winning the nomination
Hillary Clinton as commander in chief
Bernie Sanders as commander in chief

53
49
54
47

20
22
20
26

No
change

Not
sure

26
25
24
26

1
4
2
2

Regardless of whom you support, which candidate do you think is the one who cares most about people like you—Hillary
Clinton or Bernie Sanders?
Dem CGs

37
51
11

Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Not sure

Now I’m going to read you some descriptions of public figures. After each, please tell me if you think it better describes [HILLARY
CLINTON] or [BERNIE SANDERS]? (Rotate candidates. Read list. Rotate items.)

Cares about people like me

Jun-15

Clinton

Sanders

Both equally
(VOL)

40

35

11

Not
Sure
14

Which of the following best fits your view of Bill Clinton’s role in Hillary Clinton’s campaign? (Read options. Rotate.)
Dem CGs

18
73
10

Bill Clinton represents the past, not the future, and has a history of problems with women
Bill Clinton was a successful president and has good ideas for how to take the country forward
Not sure

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton has handled Bill Clinton’s past extramarital affairs and
accusations of sexual harassment and sexual assault, or do you not really care? (Read options. Rotate.)
Dem CGs

30
7
57
6

Approve
Disapprove
Do not really care
Not sure

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
(If Uncommitted or not sure:) Toward which candidate do you lean?
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in leaning question, code second choice as No
first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent
says the word “uncommitted.”)
Not sure

First Choice
or Lean

First
Choice

2
10
3
23
2
2
2
5
15
2
28

2
9
3
23
2
2
2
5
14
2
28
5
5

Lean
Based on all

1
1
3
3
No first choice

Second
Choice

Combined
(1st/Lean/2nd)

4
11
3
17
4
3
2
4
20
2
7

6
21
6
40
6
5
4
9
35
4
35

5
9
9

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)
(If Uncommitted or not sure:) Toward which candidate do you lean?
And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in leaning question, code second choice as No
first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)
Among likely Republican
caucusgoers

Jeb Bush

Ben Carson

Chris Christie

Ted Cruz

Carly Fiorina

Jim Gilmore

Mike Huckabee

John Kasich

First choice
or lean
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

First

Lean
Based on all

Second

Combined

2

2

-

4

6

4
6
5
6
9
8

4
6
5
6
9
8

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

4
5
5
4
7
7

8
11
10
10
16
15

10

9

1

11

21

11
13
28
18
10
9

11
13
28
18
10
9

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

8
14
19
14
5
10

19
27
47
32
15
19

3

3

-

3

6

3
3
1
2
4
4

3
3
1
2
4
4

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

3
3
2
1
4
3

6
6
3
3
8
7

23

23

-

17

40

25
31
10
8
5
5

25
31
10
8
5
5

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

23
20
9
10
8
6

48
51
19
18
13
11

2

2

-

4

6

2
1
4
5
2
1
-

2
1
4
5
2
1
-

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

4
4
13
11
3
1
-

6
5
17
16
5
2

2

2

-

3

5

3
3
3
4
9
10

3
3
3
4
9
10

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

4
5
3
4
8
7

7
8
6
8
17*
17

2

2

-

2

4

2
2
2
2
2
1

2
2
2
2
2
1

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

1
2
2
3
1
1

3
4
4
5
3
2

-

First choice
or lean

Rand Paul

Marco Rubio

Rick Santorum

Donald Trump

“Uncommitted” (VOL–
only if respondent says
the word
“uncommitted.”)
Not sure

No first choice

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

First

Lean
Based on all

Second

Combined

5

5

-

4

9

5
3
5
4
10
14

5
3
5
4
10
14

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

2
3
4
3
5
9

7
6
9
7
15
23

15

14

1

20

35

12
10
9
6
6
3

12
10
9
6
6
3

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

16
14
11
8
12
8

28
24
20
14
18
11

2

2

-

2

4

1
1
2
1
6
4

1
1
2
1
6
4

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

1
2
1
2
6
6

2
3
3
3
12
10

28

28

-

7

35

22
21
19
23
4
1

22
21
19
23
4
1

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

11
14
9
9
2
1

33
35
28
32
6
2

3

5

3

5

5
3
3
5
4
2

5
3
3
5
4
2

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a

4
3
2
1
2
1

2

5

3

9

6
4
7
5
7
5

6
4
7
5
7
5

n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

8
4
2
4
5
6

9
11
7
11
10
11
7

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among all Rep CGs
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=602
n=500
n=400
n=401

±4.0% pts
±4.4% pts
±4.9% pts
±4.9% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

55

45

-

42
33
22

56
66
78

2
1
1

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Trump supporters
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=170
n=110
n=86
n=80

±7.5% pts
±9.4% pts
±10.6% pts
±11.0% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

71

29

-

64
45
32

36
55
67

1
1

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Cruz supporters
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=142
n=123
n=120
n=36

±8.3% pts
±8.9% pts
±9.0% pts
±16.6% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

61

38

1

51
43
37

48
55
63

1
2
-

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or
could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first
choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)
Among Rubio supporters
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15

n=89
n=61
n=39
n=39

±10.4% pts
±12.7% pts
±15.9% pts
±15.9% pts

Mind is
made up

Could still be
persuaded

Not
sure

47

53

-

24
10
18

72
90
80

3
3

Now, I’m going to mention some prominent politicians, including presidential candidates [before late Jan-16:
candidates for the Republican nomination for president]. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable,
mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer,
just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list, but Palin through Bloomberg will be last.)
Among likely Republican
caucusgoers
Jeb Bush
Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida

Ben Carson
Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon

Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon
from Maryland
Chris Christie
Chris Christie, governor of New
Jersey

Ted Cruz
Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas

John Kasich
John Kasich, governor of Ohio

Rand Paul
Rand Paul, U.S. senator from
Kentucky

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

5

35

30

22

7

10
6
14
10
11
17
9

37
32
36
36
32
29
41

32
32
25
31
27
25
19

18
22
18
19
18
18
9

4
7
7
5
13
11
22

28

44

15

6

6

29
28
53
46
24
28
24

45
44
31
33
32
22
17

16
13
7
6
10
9
4

7
9
5
2
5
3
4

4
6
4
13
29
38
51

44

9

30

29

15

16

42
42*
49
59
58
54
45

12
8
6
5
6
7
8

39
38
32
24
21
29
31

27
24
28
36
39
32
29

15
19
21
23
19
22
16

7
11
12
12
14
10
16

65

28

29

36

15

13

7

76
73
61
61
59
58
52

19
19*
26
24
20
21
18

39
43
28
29
20
22
20

37
30
33
32
39
36
32

10
12
15
17
13
14
11

9
6
11
7
7
7
7

5
9
13
15
21
21
30

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

28

27*

6

22

17

11

45

28
19
31*
33*
25
22
17

43
46
33*
22
16*
14
7

6
5
8
10
7
7
3

22
14
22
22
18
15
14

26
31
22
17
11
10
5

17
15
12
5
4
4
2

29
34
36
45
59
64
76

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

40*

41*

13

28

28

14

18

45
37
43*
39*
55
64
59

43
50*
48*
49
34
25
24

11
9
12
11
16
25
21

34
28
30
29
39
39
38

29
30
29
31
24
18
18

14
19
18
18
10
7
6

12
14
10
12
11
11
17

Fav

Unf

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

41*

53*

47
39*
50
45*
43
46
50

50
54
43
50
45
43
28

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

72

22*

73*
72
84
79
56
50
41

22*
22
12
8
15
12
8

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

40*
51
46
39*
29
28*
36
39

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

Very
Favorable

Among likely Republican
caucusgoers

Fav

Unf

Very
Favorable

Mostly
Favorable

Mostly
Unfavorable

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15
Oct-14

70

21*

25

45

13

7

9

73
70
70*
67
60
57
54

21*
21
20
20
17
20
16

29
24
26
24
20
16
14

44
46
43
43
40
41
40

14
15
12
15
12
15
12

8
6
8
5
5
5
4

6
9
10
13
23
23
30

late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15
Oct-15
Aug-15
May-15
Jan-15

50

47*

27

23

19

27

3

54*
57
59
61*
27
26

45
38
37
35
63*
68

26
25
27
26
7
4

27
32
32
34
20
22

23
17
19
16
31
36

22
21
18
19
33
32

2
5
5
4
10
6

Sarah Palin

late Jan-16

37*

50

9

29

27

23

13

Terry Branstad

late Jan-16

65

26

24

41

17

9

9

Michael Bloomberg

late Jan-16

9

50

1

8

20

30

41

Marco Rubio
Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from
Florida

Donald Trump
Donald Trump, a businessman from
New York
Donald Trump, businessman and
television personality

Very
Unfavorable

Not
Sure

For each of these candidates, please tell me how enthusiastic your support would be if the person became the
Republican nominee—would you be very enthusiastic, fairly enthusiastic, just OK with it, or not OK with it?
(Read list. Rotate.)
Among likely Republican
caucusgoers

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Donald Trump

Very/fairly
enthusiastic

30
58
31
56
23*
31
58
44

Just/not OK
with it

69
40
65
43
56
63
40
56

Very
enthusiastic

Fairly
enthusiastic

Just OK
with it

Not OK
with it

10
30
12
35
10
16
35
32

20
28
19
21
12
15
23
12

34
28
35
23
30
34
25
19

35
12
30
20
26
29
15
37

Not
Sure

2
2
4
1
21
7
2
1

Chris Christie

Ted Cruz

Carly Fiorina

Mike Huckabee

John Kasich

Rand Paul

Marco Rubio

Rick Santorum

Donald Trump

None/ Not Sure

Bring about needed change
Keep your family safest
Be the strongest leader
Win the general election in
November
Bring the greatest depth of
knowledge and experience
Be most respected by leaders of
friendly countries
Be most feared by U.S. enemies
Care the most about people like
you

Ben Carson

Among likely Republican
caucusgoers

Jeb Bush

Regardless of which candidate you support as your first choice, which one do you believe would: (Read each
item. Read list if necessary. Rotate.)

3
4
4

7
5
5

2
4
3

21
24
23

2
1
2

2
2
2

2
1
2

6
6
5

11
12
14

1
2
2

37
28
32

6
11
6

2

4

1

24

1

-

1

2

17

1

35

12

15

4

4

26

1

2

5

5

10

1

17

9

10
5

10
1

2
2

20
21

1
-

2
1

2
-

5
2

16
5

1
-

16
50

15
13

3

18

3

19

1

3

3

6

14

2

19

9

Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which candidate to
support: (Rotate list.)
Among likely
Republican
caucusgoers
late Jan-16
early Jan-16
Dec-15

Tea
party

Evangelical
conservative

Mainstream
Republican

Not
sure

20

33

38

9

22
24

30
32

38
35

9
10

Regardless of whom you support, for each of the following, please tell me if you have become more comfortable or less
comfortable with the scenario, or if you’ve not really changed. (Read items. Rotate.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Donald Trump winning the nomination
Ted Cruz winning the nomination
Donald Trump winning the presidency
Ted Cruz winning the presidency
Donald Trump as the person representing the U.S. to the rest
of the world
Ted Cruz as the person representing the U.S. to the rest of
the world

More
Less
comfortable comfortable

No
change

Not
sure

35
50
37
49

48
29
45
28

15
20
17
21

2
1
2
1

32

49

17

2

48

27

23

2

If the race for the Republican nomination eventually becomes a two-person contest between [Donald Trump] and [Ted
Cruz], which one would you most want to see become the nominee? (Rotate candidate names.)
Rep CGs

35
53
7
5

Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Neither (VOL)
Not sure

Recently, Governor Terry Branstad said Ted Cruz should be defeated in the Iowa caucuses. Did this comment make you
more likely or less likely to support Ted Cruz, or did it make no difference?
Rep CGs

11
11
77
1

More likely
Less likely
No difference
Not sure

Donald Trump [announced he would not attend] [did not attend] the final Republican debate before the caucuses on Fox
News. Do you approve or disapprove of his decision, or do you not care? (Question added after first night in the field,
so based on a smaller number of respondents; n=433. MoE: +/-4.7% pts.)
Rep CGs

24
29
46
1

Approve
Disapprove
Don’t care
Not sure

I’m going to mention some things about some of the candidates—things that might be a concern. For each,
please tell me if this bothers you or does not bother you. (Rotate.)
Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Until recently, Ted Cruz held dual citizenship with the U.S. and
Canada
Four of Donald Trump’s businesses have filed for bankruptcy
Ted Cruz borrowed up to a million dollars from Wall Street banks to
finance his 2012 Senate campaign and failed to fully disclose it
Donald Trump has said in the past he was pro-choice and would not
have banned late-term abortions
Ted Cruz does not support the Renewable Fuel Standard
Donald Trump’s familiarity with the Bible and matters of faith have
been questioned
Ted Cruz’s personality puts a lot of people off, including many of his
colleagues of both parties in the Senate
Donald Trump supports the use of eminent domain to take private
property for public or private projects, with compensation to the
landowners

Bothers

Does not
bother

Not
sure

22
34

75
64

3
1

54

44

2

56
43

40
51

4
6

36

62

2

33

65

3

60

35

5

(Ask all Republicans and Democrats.)
Do you tend to feel the system works reasonably well for those who work hard to get ahead, or do you think the system is
rigged against all but the very rich and powerful?
Rep CG

Dem CG

50
38
12

21
67
11

System works
System rigged against all but very rich and powerful
Not sure

Compared to:
Study #2132
500 Republican likely caucusgoers
503 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.4 percentage points for each party

January 7-10, 2016
3,391 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2130
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for each party

December 7-10, 2015
2,635 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2128
401 Republican likely caucusgoers
402 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for each party

October 16-19, 2015
2,771 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2125
400 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
404 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats

August 23-26, 2015
2,975 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2122
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points

June 19-22, 2015
1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district
to conform to active Democratic and no-party voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2118
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans
437 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.7 percentage points for Democrats

May 25-29, 2015
4,161 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2113
402 Republican likely caucusgoers
401 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for each party

January 26-29, 2015
3,813 contacts weighted by age, sex, and
congressional district to conform to active voters
in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2104
425 Republican likely caucusgoers
426 Democratic likely caucusgoers
Margin of error: ± 4.8 percentage points for each party

October 1-7, 2014
3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform
to active voters in Iowa voter registration list

About the Poll
The Iowa Poll, conducted January 26-29 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des
Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 602 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend
the 2016 Republican caucuses and 602 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016
Democratic caucuses.
Interviewers contacted 3,019 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by
telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter
registration list.
Questions based on the subsamples of 602 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 602 likely Republican caucus attendees
each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. This means that if this survey were
repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the
percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.0 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of
respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.
Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.