January 30, 2016

Donald Trump builds on his lead in New Hampshire, as more than one-half of Republican
voters in the state now believe he will be the eventual Republican nominee.
By:

R. Kelly Myers
Marlin Fitzwater Fellow, Franklin Pierce University
603.433.3982

Portsmouth, NH. Donald Trump, the candidate of choice among 38 percent of Republican
Primary voters, is currently the clear favorite in the race. Texas Senator Ted Cruz (13%) is
running as a more distant second place, followed closely by and Former Florida Governor Jeb
Bush (10%), Florida Senator Marco Rubio (10%), and Ohio Governor John Kasich (8%). Trump
appears to be settling in to his long-held front-runner position, as 57 percent of Republican
primary voters in New Hampshire now believe he will be the eventual nominee, a perception
that has consistently risen over time.
It is important to emphasize that the Republican primary race remains highly fluid, with many
voters reporting that they could change their mind in the final week leading up to the primary
election.
These results are based on a recent Franklin Pierce University / Boston Herald Poll conducted
by RKM Research and Communications, January 26-30, 2016. The survey is based on
responses from 439 randomly selected likely Republican primary voters. Interviews were
conducted by landline and cellular telephone. The sampling margin of error is +/- 4.7 percent.

Favorability Ratings
Among the eleven presidential hopefuls included in the most recent Franklin Pierce University /
Boston Herald Poll, several of the candidates attract reasonably high favorability ratings over 50
percent, including Florida Senator Marco Rubio (59%), physician Ben Carson (59%), Texas
Senator Ted Cruz (57%), businesswoman Carly Fiorina (57%), and businessman Donald Trump
(56%). Interestingly, none of the Republican candidates come close to having high favorability
ratings similar to Clinton and Sanders on the Democratic side.
Favorability
Ratings: Republican
Potential Republican
Presidential Candidates
Favorability Ratings:
Potential
Presidential
Candidates

Donald Trump
100
46
46

55

55

58

42

41

39

October
2015

December
2015

56
39

0
March 2015 August 2015

Jan. 20-24
2016

Jan. 26-30
2016

Ted Cruz
100
55
22

47
29

March 2015 August 2015

45
29

October
2015

57

54

33

39

December
2015

January
2016

57
39

Jan. 26-30
2016

Marco Rubio
100
55
15

62

59

21

19

0
March 2015 August 2015

October
2015

65

56

26

37

December
2015

January
2016

59
32
Jan. 26-30
2016

John Kasich
100
50
0

24
7

16

March 2015 August 2015

46
22
October
2015

Unfavorable

43

51

39

30

December
2015

January
2016

46
36

Favorable

Jan. 26-30
2016

Favorability
Ratings: Potential
Republican
Presidential Candidates
Favorability Ratings:
Potential
Republican
Presidential
Candidates

Jeb Bush
100
53
37
0

62

57

53

51

31

37

42

44

March 2015 August 2015

October
2015

December
2015

January
2016

48
47
Jan. 26-30
2016

Chris Christie
100
64
46
43

49
41

39

March 2015 August 2015

51

46

October
2015

43

30

December
2015

January
2016

47
43

Jan. 26-30
2016

Carly Fiorina
100
25
9

55

60

12

18

0
March 2015 August 2015

October
2015

56

54

31

29

December
2015

January
2016

57
28
Jan. 26-30
2016

Ben Carson
100
35
11

55
13

69

56

55

14

36

34

October
2015

December
2015

January
2016

59
31

0
March 2015 August 2015

Unfavorable

Favorable

Jan. 26-30
2016

Favorability
Ratings: Republican
Potential Republican
Presidential Candidates
Favorability Ratings:
Potential
Presidential
Candidates

Rand Paul
100
57
24

45
44

March 2015 August 2015

48

52

46

36

38

40

October
2015

December
2015

January
2016

44
42
Jan. 26-30
2016

Rick Santorum
100

36

42

43

34

36

27

March 2015 August 2015

October
2015

52

45
27

27

December
2015

January
2016

45
27

Jan. 26-30
2016

Mike Huckabee
100

49
35

49

48

37

34

0
March 2015 August 2015

October
2015

Unfavorable

51

47

43
38

36

33
December
2015

January
2016

Favorable

Jan. 26-30
2016

Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice

Republican Presidential
Primary Vote Choice
August 2015

Bush

October 2015

13

Carson

Christie

Cruz

16

10
<1

Fiorina

Huckabee

December 2015 Jan. 20-24 2016 Jan. 26-30 2016

11

12

10
2

10

Paul

Rubio

Santorum

<1

<1

Other

Unsure

12

12

1
28

18

13

Trump

14

12

Kasich

10

10

0
26

0
33

38

100 0

100 0

100 0

100 0

100

Voters were asked who they would vote for if the New Hampshire Republican presidential
primary were held today. The results continue to indicate that Donald Trump is the Partys clear
frontrunner in New Hampshire, capturing over one-third (38%) of the vote. Four other
candidates continue to vie for the second place position, including Ted Cruz (13%), Jeb Bush
(10%), Marco Rubio (10%) and John Kasich (8%).

Firmness of Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice

Firmness of Republican Presidential Primary Vote Choice

OVERALL
Bush
Carson

41

Cruz

Huck
abee

100
34

Paul

50
59

Fiori
na

48

Kasich

10

Chris
tie

50

Fiorina

37

52
0

Kasi
ch

66

Paul
Rubi
o

76

63
24

Sant
orum

Santorum
Trump

41

Cars
on

90

Cruz

Rubio

56

Bush

59

Christie

Huckabee

Over
all

44

33

Trum
p

Could Change Mind

67
Firm Choice

Unlike the Democratic primary where voters are more likely to report that they have made up
their mind who they plan to vote for, the Republican primary remains subject to significant
change. Only about one-half of Republican voters (56%) report that they have made a firm
choice, while 44 say they could still change their mind. Fifty-nine percent of Jeb Bushs
supporters report that they could change their mind in the final week. Voter volatility is also high
for Christie (50% could change their mind), Cruz (41% could change their mind), Fiorina (48%
could change their mind) and Rubio (76% could change their mind). Support is a little more
stable for Kasich (34% could change their mind), Rand Paul (37% could change their mind) and
Donald Trump (33% could still change their mind).

Candidate Most Likely to Win the Presidential Nomination of the Republican

Apart from who you plan to vote for, which candidate do you think
will win the presidential nomination of the Republican Party?
Party
August 2015
Bush

October 2015 December 2015 Jan. 20-24 2016 Jan. 26-30 2016

27

16

Carson

Christie

Cruz

Fiorina

Huckabee

<1

Kasich

Paul

Rubio

Santorum

<1

10

Other

Unsure

100 0

0
38

7
100 0

57

55

2
26

35

<1

<1

11

11

13

36

16

Trump

11

10

16
100 0

100 0

100

Voters were also asked who they think will end up winning the presidential nomination of the
Republican Party. The results show that more than one-half (57%) of Republican voters believe
that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee, a marked increase from results from
December (38%) and October (36%). Eleven percent of voters believe Ted Cruz will be the
eventual nominee, while fewer reported that it will be Marco Rubio (7%) or Jeb Bush (4%).

Sarah Palin Endorsement

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable view toward

former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin?

No opinion
21%

Never heard
of person
0%

Very
favorable
16%

Somewhat
favorable
26%

Very
unfavorable
21%
Somewhat
unfavorable
16%

As you may know, Sarah Palin endorsed Donald Trump for

president. Are you more or less likely to support Donald
Trump for president based on Sarah Palins endorsement?
Unsure
2%
Less
likely
24%

More
likely
14%

No effect
60%

Republican primary voters were asked if they have a favorable or unfavorable view toward
former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin. She is viewed favorably by 42 percent of Republican
primary voters and unfavorably by 37 percent.
Voters were then asked if her endorsement of Donald Trumps candidacy made it more or less
likely that they would vote for him. Only 14 percent report that her endorsement makes it more
likely that they will vote for Trump.

Methodology
The results outlined in this report are based on a survey conducted by RKM Research
and Communications on behalf of Franklin Pierce University and the Boston Herald. All
interviews were conducted by paid, trained and professionally supervised interviewers.
The survey is based on a probabilistic sample 439 likely Republican presidential primary
voters in New Hampshire. Interviews were conducted by landline and cellular telephone,
January 26-30, 2016. The sampling margin of error is +/- 4.7 percent.
The data are weighted to adjust for probability of selection, respondent gender and
respondent age. In addition to sampling error, all surveys have other potential sources of
non-sampling error including question wording effects, question order effects and nonresponse.
More information available at www.rkm-research.com (603.433.3982).