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Mar'11

Income
Revenue from operations
Other Income
NET REVENUE
Total Income
EXPENSES Lakhs
Fuel
Employee Benefit Expenses
Finance Costs
Depreciation & Amortisation expense
Generation, administration & other expenses
Prior period items
Total Expenses
Profit before tax
Tax
Reported Net Profit

Mar '12

Mar '13

55,062.65
2,344.65
57407.3

62,052.23
2,778.42
64830.65

65,673.93
3,101.58
68775.51

57407.3

64830.65

68775.51

35,373.78
2,789.71
1,420.96
2,485.69
4,926.28
-1,638.72
45,357.70
12,049.60
463.84
11,585.76

Mar'11
EQUITY & Liabilities
Shareholder's Fund
(a) Share Capital
(b) Reserves & Surplus
Deferred Revenue
Non-current Liabilities
(a) Long term borrowing's
(b) Deferred tax liability (net)
Other long-term liabilities
(d) Long term provisions
Current Liabilities
(a) Trade payables
(b) Other current liabilities
Short-term provisions

Short term debt

41,635.46
3,090.48
1,711.64
2,791.70
3,588.79
-313.58
52,504.49
12,326.16
4,024.73
8,301.43

Mar'12

41,018.25
3,360.12
1,924.36
3,396.76
4,211.22
-29.72
53,880.99
14,894.52
3,322.60
11,571.92

Mar'13

8,245.46
59,646.79
67,892.25
854.48

8,245.46
65,045.71
73,291.17
1,430.06

8,245.46
72,142.05
80,387.51
1,244.05

39,735.68
602.95
2,050.58
561.90
42,951.11

45,908.27
636.90
1,729.06
603.70
48,877.93

53,253.66
915.30
1,965.99
739.92
56,874.87

4,088.01
7,762.50
2,190.53
14,041.04

4,468.07
9,554.95
3,215.62
17,238.64

5,158.77
10,446.72
7,004.54
22,610.03

TOTAL
ASSETS
Non-current Assets
Fixed Assets
(a) Tangible assets
(b) Intangible assets
Capital work-in-progress
(d) Intangible assets under development
Non-current Investments
Long term loans and advances
Other non-current assets
Current Assets
(a) Current investments
(b) Inventories
Trade receivalbes
(d) Cash and bank balances
e) Short-term loans and advances
(f) Other current assets

TOTAL

125,738.88

140,837.80

161,116.46

39,029.07

45,046.47

62,687.42

206.89
35,495.30
0.03
10,532.84
3,901.96
459.15
89,625.24

211.89
41,827.82
0.04
9,583.92
3,883.26
1,371.88
101,925.28

248.68
37,109.42
9,137.64
9,633.45
1,132.77
119,949.38

1,812.00
3,639.12
1,434.96
16,185.26
3,777.86
9,264.44
36,113.64

1,622.46
3,702.85
5,832.51
16,146.11
2,754.73
8,853.86
38,912.52

1,622.46
4,057.19
5,365.49
16,867.70
1,745.53
11,508.71
41,167.08

125,738.88

140,837.80

161,116.46

Mar '14

Mar '15

72,018.93
2,645.68
74664.61

73,246.05
76346.81305 79578.842311 82947.694745 86459.162557
2,116.32 1977.0934446 1847.0262005 1725.5157032 1611.9990291
75362.37 78323.906495 81425.868512 84673.210448 88071.161586

74664.61

75362.37 78323.90649 81425.86851 84673.21045 88071.16159

45,829.71
3,824.78
2,406.59
4,142.19
4,543.85
12.84
60,759.96
13,904.65
3,082.36
10,822.29

Mar'14

Mar '16

Mar '17

Mar '18

Mar '19

48,845.19 49491.020528 51586.149586 53769.97283 56046.244997


3,669.78
3891.283059 4056.0147644 4227.7201425 4406.6944135
2,743.62 2344.8471877 2444.1128207 2547.5807172 2655.428774
4,911.65 4068.1583038 4240.3777607 4419.8878732 4606.9972805
4,979.31 5229.7261536 5451.1188652 5681.8839093 5922.4180497
-333.83 -605.37522131 -631.0028848 -657.7154574 -685.55886718
64,815.72 64419.66001 67146.77091 69989.33001 72952.22465
10,546.65 13904.246484
14279.0976 14683.880433 15118.936939
3,044.10 4171.2739452
4283.72928
4405.16413 4535.6810817
7,502.55 9732.972539 9995.36832 10278.7163 10583.25586

Mar'15

Mar '16

8245.46
83,144.9
91,390.32
1394.15

Mar '17

8,245.46
73,411.89
81,657.35
1,394.15

62,405.75
1,051.61
2,512.46
879.36
66,849.18

78,532.33
979.07
2,886.59
1,115.71
83,513.70

78,532.33
78,532.33
78,532.33
78,532.33
963.80132336 1004.602425 1047.1307809 1091.4595117
2585.6629948 2695.1232083 2809.2172579 2928.1413101
895.43652661 933.34350583 972.85522088 1014.0396059
82,977.23
83,165.40
83,361.53
83,565.97

6,429.60
11,547.60
7,302.60
25,279.80

5,953.15
16,807.62
7,758.75
30,519.52

6036.7687031 6292.3263657 6558.7026835 6836.3556482


12884.849848 13430.310884 13998.863206 14591.484347
6193.0330615 6455.2059443 6728.4775279 7013.3176592
25,114.65
26,177.84
27,286.04
28,441.16
4,570.71

8245.46
103,418.9
111,664.41
1394.15

Mar '19

8,245.46
77,569.86
85,815.32
1,609.88

9,682.04

8245.46
93,140.2
101,385.69
1394.15

Mar '18

-624.84

8245.46
114,002.2
122,247.66
1394.15

-5,917.68

179,554.18 197,084.72

210,558.39

216,693.79

223,081.29

229,731.26

71,865.86

78,586.91

244.97
44,886.74
1.93
8,120.90
12,777.26
1,786.77
139,684.43

262.16
56,463.11
30.38
7,154.07
15,527.89
1,696.77
159,721.29

262.16
60861.084482
0
10616.885577
10223.481875
1460.82945
165,154.83

262.16
60861.084482
0
11066.335704
10656.277839
1522.6715013
169,368.13

262.16
60861.084482
0
11534.812637
11107.39558
1587.1315443
173,752.17

262.16
60861.084482
0
12023.121847
11577.610721
1654.3204077
178,313.87

1,636.96
5,373.35
5,220.08
15,311.37
3,116.04
9,211.95
39,869.75

1,878.06
7,453.00
7,604.37
12,878.81
2,407.59
5,141.60
37,363.43

2017.53232
5556.5914545
5772.6522718
18314.319496
3293.8997202
10448.569215
45,403.56

2102.9415629
5791.8215245
6017.0289565
19089.629089
3433.3420866
10890.893919
47,325.66

2191.9664795
6037.0097111
6271.7509662
19897.760265
3578.6875391
11351.943784
49,329.12

2284.7601341
6292.5775764
6537.2562549
20740.102477
3730.185976
11832.511511
51,417.39

210,558.39

216,693.79

223,081.29

229,731.26

179,554.18 197,084.72

-6,034.90

81730.3864 84999.601856 88399.58593 91935.569367

3,143.48
3,269.22
3,399.98
3,535.98
3143.4764 3269.215456 3399.9840742 3535.9834372
1,974.59
2,058.18
2,145.32
2,236.13
8,009.49
83.59
87.13
90.82
6462.377026 18.096606806 18.862699854 19.661224317

Mar '20

90119.283159
1505.9502878
91625.233446

CAGR

Average % of
Sales

4.23%
-6.58%

ASSUMPTION
Growing at CAGR

91625.23345

58418.879775
4593.2452952
2767.8424184
4802.0276875
6173.1348468
-714.58098652
76040.54904
15584.684411
4675.4053232
10909.27909

64.82%
5.10%
3.07%
5.33%
6.85%
-0.79%

Projected from historical average


percentage of sales

Tax rate assumed to be 34%

Mar '20

8245.46
124,911.5
133,156.94
1394.15

78,532.33
1137.6648337
3052.0998359
1056.9674708
83,779.06
7125.76264
15209.193227
7310.2160756
29,645.17
-11,320.83

1.26%
3.39%
1.17% Projected from historical average % of sales

7.91%
16.88%
8.11%
BALANCING AMOUNT( Adjusted )

236,654.50
Projected from historical average % of sales

95612.992142

4.00% Assumed

262.16
60861.084482
0
12532.102905
12067.731725
1724.3536121
183,060.42

5.47%
7.79%

2381.4820707
6558.9645289
6814.0013168
21618.103999
3888.0978749
12333.423362
53,594.07
236,654.50
3,677.42
3677.4227747
2,330.80
94.66
20.49355313

Projected from historical average % of sales


13.91%
13.39%
1.91%

2.64%
7.28%
7.56%
23.99%
4.31%
13.69%

Year

Close
market return
1999 1791.44 n.a
2000 1304.66
-27.17%
2001 1005.82
-22.91%

Risk Free Ra
Year
2014-15

2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008

1176.73
2366.36
2779.65
3795.96
5270.76
8592.43
3596.85

16.99%
101.10%
17.47%
36.56%
38.85%
63.02%
-58.14%

2009

6842.25

90.23%

2007-08

2010

7961.06

16.35%

2006-07

2011 5778.68
2012 7581.57
2013 7828.34
2014 10,721.62
2015 11,358.74

-27.41%
31.20%
3.25%
36.96%
5.94%

2005-06

2013-14
2012-13
2011-12
2010-11
2009-10
2008-09

2004-05
2003-04
2002-03
2001-02
2000-01

Average

21.09%

1999-00

COST OF DEBT
cost
22.00%
Cost of Debt

#NOTE = cost of debt is taken from rate of debentures from annua

Weighted average
S.no

source
1 equity

no. of shares cr
824.5464135021

CMP on 28/1/16
142.2

2 Debt

n.a

n.a

total =

Risk Free Rate (Rf)


Central Government Securities
Range

Weighted Average

Calculations

8.43

7.64 - 9.42
7.16 - 9.40

8.45

7.86 - 8.82

8.36 Current

Risk free return (on 07/08/20

8.52 BETA

6.07 - 8.43

=
7.92 Average Market returns =
7.23 Average Risk free returns =

7.69 - 8.81

7.69

7.55 - 8.64

8.12

7.06 - 8.75

7.89

6.70 - 7.79

7.34

7.80 - 10.01
5.98 - 8.67

4.49 - 8.24

6.11

4.62 - 6.35

5.71

6.57 - 8.62

7.34

6.98 - 11.00

9.44

9.47 - 11.70

10.95

10.73 - 12.45

11.77

OF DEBT
Tax rate
34%
14.52%
rate of debentures from annual report

eighted average cost of capital


amount (in cr.)
117250.50

weight
59.89%

78532.33

40.11%

Ke = Rf + Beta (R

195782.83

Weighted average cost of c

Calculations For Cost Of Equity (Ke)

Risk free return (on 07/08/2015) =

0.0781
0.95
21%
8.19%

Market returns =
Risk free returns =

= Rf + Beta (Rm - Rf)


20.45%
Market Risk premium

Average

12.900667

8.18933333333333

3,570.37

22.00%

cost
20.45%

Weighted cost
12.24%

14.52%

5.82%
18.07%

d average cost of capital =

18.07%

Ref:http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/government-bond-yield

WACC
Debt Value
Growth Rate
Debt ratio

Year
Net Income
Depreciation (+)
Interest exp
Capex(-)
WC Change(-)
Tax Rate

18.07%
78532.33
7% GDP rate
40.11%

1
2016
9732.97

2
2017
9995.37

3
2018
10278.72

4
2019
10583.26

5,564.61

4,769.99

3,823.22

3,107.09

3,570.37

3,203.07

2,480.54

2,134.72

3143.4764 3269.215456 3399.9840742 3535.9834372


6462.377026 18.096606806 18.862699854 19.661224317
34%
34%
34%
34%

FCFF
TV

8048.1733129 13592.072457 12320.245929 11543.616396

FCFF + TV
PV of FCFF + TV

8048.1733129 13592.072457 12320.245929 11543.616396


6816.602
13592.072
12320.246
11543.616

Firm Value
Equity Value
No of Shares
Price per Share

5
2020
10909.28
2,719.69
1,725.75

3677.422774698
20.49355313
34%
11070.047759523
109200.75630306
120270.80406259
120270.804
164543.341298
86011.0112983
824.546413502
104.313122815