MANITOBA

[FEBRUARY 23, 2016]

METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,798 Manitoba residents by Smart IVR on February
20th, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 2.31%, 19
times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Winnipeg: +/-3.28%; Rest of Manitoba: +/-3.28%;
19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011
Census.

A2
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.
The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished
with full and proper credit and attribution to Mainstreet/Postmedia.

MANITOBA STABLE AS ELECTION APPROACHES

February 23, 2016 (Toronto, ON) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll nds the PC Party continuing to lead
in Manitoba with the Liberals and NDP tied for second. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error
of +/- 2.31%, 19 times out of 20.
As the Election Campaign draws nearer and nearer the Liberals are trending upwards slightly but
essentially the race is much the same as weve found it earlier this month, said Quito Maggi, President of
Mainstreet Research. Undecided voters are now leaning almost evenly between the Liberals and PCs but
this may be a temporary blip. As a result among decided and leaning voters the Liberals are now in second
place.
Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 50% (-1%), NDP 21% (-), Liberals 23% (+3%), Greens 6% (-1%)
We polled a number of issues and found some interesting results. Most Manitobans strongly support a
secret ballot for unionization (66%) but they are split on other issues such as special tax powers for
Winnipeg. 34% are in favour with 27% opposed but 39% arent sure - this means there is an opportunity for
both those opposed and in favour of new tax powers to make their case.
When it comes to funding rapid bus transit almost half are in favour (48%) and more are opposed than in
favour of continuing to fund a Helicopter for the Winnipeg police (42% disapprove, 38% approve), he
nished.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling rm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

The Return of
Greg Selinger

I watched the new Manitoba NDP ad this morning

with some interest and after a few seconds I
realized I have seen this ad before.
Back in 2011, then Premier Dalton McGuinty looked
like he was about to lose a looming election, the
polls were bad, his approval numbers were terrible,
sound familiar? The ads that ran, called simply
Leadership, worked well. The humble Dalton
stood alone against a white background and talked
about what his government had accomplished and
red lettered references appear on the bottom right
of the screen.
Say what you will about Dalton McGuinty, but his
self-deprecating humour and endearing speaking
style played very well, the Ontario Liberals won
another near majority in 2011 after what looked like
a certain loss to the PCs.
Imitation is the sincerest form of attery they say,
and the Manitoba NDP leader should be expecting
a nice note from Mr. McGuinty after airing this
commercial. A carbon copy, right down to the fonts,
the positioning of the hands, and nearly identical
ties.
It worked for Dalton McGuinty in 2011, but will it
work for Premier Selinger in 2016? Its too early to
tell yet, but there is one key dierence is these ads
that tells me its less likely to have any impact.
Both ads are visually clean, the narrative very
similar, humble leaders who tell the viewer about
making tough decisions. Its a heart to heart, one on

Quito
Maggi

one, honest
distractions.

conversation

with

voters,

no

The dierence I notice right away is that Dalton

McGuinty uses the word I when talking about the
challenges he faces politically, he says I accept
that, then goes on to say Ontario has done x. He
takes direct and personal ownership and
responsibility for the mistakes that have been made,
and then credits Ontario with the list of
accomplishments that splash across the screen.
Premier Selinger says we havent always gotten it
right in this ad. Why we instead of I? Maybe he
means the NDP government? his cabinet? perhaps
the political advisors? Or the thousands of public
servants who work for the Manitoba government? In
an ad that features just a single person, the Premier,
he says we havent always gotten it right, then
says I make decisions with your best interest in
mind and lists accomplishments and commitments
crediting we, this we I believe means the NDP
government, at least thats how it comes across to
me. So I make the decisions, but we havent
always gotten it right, its inconsistent with the
narrative of the ad.
It might seem like such a small thing to point out,
such subtle dierences in essentially the same ad.
But make no mistake that words matter.
I am willing to bet that this ad wont have the
desired eect. If I am wrong, I guess we will have
to eat a little crow on April 19th. Yup, that makes
perfect sense.

A4

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?

45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Jan 7

Jan 27
NDP

PC

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI
GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE
NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER
PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI
GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME
UNDECIDED
SAMPLE

Liberal

Feb 11
Green

18-34
18%
38%
13%
7%
24%
162

Feb 20
Undecided

35-49
14%
38%
21%
4%
23%
412

Manitoba
17%
40%
17%
5%
22%
1798

50-64
16%
38%
19%
3%
24%
522

65+ Male Female

19% 16%
17%
46% 40% 39%
14% 16%
17%
3%
5%
5%
18% 23%
22%
702 837
961

Winnipeg
20%
33%
18%
6%
23%
891

Rest of MB
11%
50%
15%
3%
21%
907

A5

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED OR LEANING)

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Jan 7

Jan 27
NDP

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI
GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME
SAMPLE
NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER
PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI
GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME
SAMPLE

PC

Feb 11
Liberal

18-34
21%
50%
18%
12%
133

Feb 20

Green

35-49
19%
46%
30%
5%
355

Manitoba
21%
50%
23%
6%
1599

50-64
22%
49%
25%
3%
466

65+
23%
55%
18%
4%
645

Winnipeg
25%
43%
24%
8%
795

Male Female
21%
22%
50% 49%
23%
22%
6%
6%
754
845
Rest of MB
15%
60%
21%
4%
804

A6

And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

9%

17%

55%

15%

5%

NDP

PC

Liberal

Green

Undecided

A7

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support? (DECIDED ONLY)

55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Jan 7

Jan 27

NDP LED BY GREG SELINGER

PC LED BY BRIAN PALLISTER
LIBERAL PARTY LED BY RANA BOKHARI
GREEN PARTY LED BY JAMES BEDDOME

Feb 11

Jan 7
23%
44%
27%
6%

Feb 20

Jan 27
20%
52%
19%
9%

Feb 11 Feb 20
22%
21%
51%
52%
22%
20%
6%
7%

A4

Do you approve or disapprove of the province funding rapid bus transit?

16%

48%

36%

Approve

APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Disapprove

18-34
46%
35%
20%

Not Sure

35-49
45%
39%
16%

Manitoba
48%
36%
16%

50-64
53%
34%
14%

65+
51%
36%
13%

Winnipeg
47%
36%
17%

Male Female
48% 49%
38%
33%
14%
17%
Rest of MB
50%
36%
14%

A9

Do you approve or disapprove of new revenue tools for the City of Winnipeg, such as a city sales tax?

34%
39%

27%

Approve

APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Disapprove

Not Sure

18-34
36%
24%
40%

35-49
35%
26%
39%

Manitoba
34%
27%
39%

50-64
30%
29%
40%

65+ Male Female

34% 37%
31%
32% 26%
29%
34% 37% 40%

Winnipeg
36%
28%
36%

Rest of MB
31%
27%
42%

A10

Do you approve or disapprove of funding the Winnipeg Police Helicopter?

21%

38%

42%

Approve

APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Disapprove

18-34
36%
42%
22%

Not Sure

35-49
39%
41%
20%

Manitoba
38%
42%
21%

50-64
36%
41%
23%

65+ Male Female

39% 37%
38%
43% 45%
38%
18% 18%
23%

Winnipeg
37%
54%
9%

Rest of MB
39%
21%
40%

A11

Do you approve or disapprove of a mandatory secret ballot for votes

to approve or reject unionization in the workplace?

17%

17%

66%

Approve

APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE
APPROVE
DISAPPROVE
NOT SURE

Disapprove

18-34
59%
21%
20%

Not Sure

35-49
66%
17%
17%

Manitoba
66%
17%
17%

50-64
69%
13%
18%

65+
72%
15%
13%

Winnipeg
64%
18%
18%

Male Female
67%
64%
19%
15%
14%
21%
Rest of MB
69%
14%
17%

A12

If a provincial election were held today which party would you support?
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And, which party are you leaning towards? [Undecided Only]
NDP led by Greg Selinger
Progressive Conservative Party led by Brian Pallister
Liberal Party led by Rana Bokhari
Green Party led James Beddome
Undecided
And do you approve or disapprove of the province funding rapid bus transit?
Do you approve or disapprove of new revenue tools for the City of Winnipeg, such as a city sales tax?
Do you approve or disapprove of funding the Winnipeg Police Helicopter?
Do you approve or disapprove of a mandatory
secret ballot for votes to approve or reject unionization in the workplace?
Approve
Disapprove
Not Sure

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because its an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such condence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in deance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign. - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 1322255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research rm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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