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Overviewof

StudyStrategy
PresentedtotheRCPAG
Feb17,2016

Outline
KeyElementsofStrategy
Scheduleand
Deliverables
PublicCommentPeriod
March2016Meetings

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KeyElementsofStudyStrategy
1. SupportingStudies
2. WeightofEvidenceAnalysis
3. SharedVisionPlanning
4. IntegratedEnvironmentalResponseModel
5. SharedVisionModel
6. RegulationandWaterSupplyAlternatives
7.DecisionWorkshops
8.PeakingandPonding
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1.SupportingStudies

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SupportingStudies
Theobjectiveofthisrulecurveevaluationstudyistoprovideto
theIJCwithscientificallysupportedrecommendationsforthe
modificationorretentionofthe2000RainyandNamakan
LakesRulecurves.
2009PlanofStudy addressedgapsinknowledgeon
particularriskfactors:hydraulics,environmental,cultural
21Studiesfunded.Finalreportsonwebsite,severalnearingend

InternationalWatershedsInitiative(IWI)fundedstudies
4studies

NonIJCstudies

14studies,manybyUSGS/NPS/Universities

TotaltoDate: 39Studies
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CategoriesofSupportingStudies
CategoriesofStudy:
Fishspawningandhabitat
Hydraulicsandhydrology
Bird,herpetile andmammalhabitatandbreeding
MacroinvertebratesandMussels
FloodingandIcedamage
Touristresorts
CulturalResources
WaterQuality,temperature

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2.WeightofEvidence

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WeightofEvidenceApproach
OriginalapproachconsideredforRuleCurveReview
Matrixofresultsfromallstudiesgivesanoverallviewof
thechangessince2000.
Benefit:
Reliesonactualdatafromstudies
Drawbacks:
Notallstudiesconsiderpre andpost2000
Notallstudiesseparateouthydrology
Doesnotallowconsiderationofotheroptions
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WeightofEvidenceApproachExample

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3.SharedVisionPlanning

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SharedVisionPlanning
ApproachaddedbyIJCinDirectivetoexpandonWOE
Allowsconsiderationof1970,2000RuleCurvesin
comparisontootheralternativesforarangeofbasinwater
supplyconditions
ReliesonmanyofthesamestudiesasWOE,butnot
limitedtohistoricdata
Isthebasisforacomprehensive,participatoryand
transparentevaluationprocess

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4.IntegratedEnvironmentResponseModel

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IntegratedEnvironmentalResponseModel
Abletomodelthespatiallydistributedphysicalvariables
ofthesystem(e.g.,waterlevelsandwavesformainlakes,
flowsintheRainyRiver,currents,waterlevel,depth,etc.)
Abletosimulateoverperiodofyearsataquartermonth
timestep undervariousrulecurvealternativesandwater
supplies
Modelstheresponseofanumberofecologicalvariablesto
thesehydraulicconditionstobuildhabitatmodels.
Allowsforarankingofrulecurvesintermsoftheir
impactsonthedifferentcomponentsoftheecosystem.
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IntegratedEnvironmentalResponseModel

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IntegratedEnvironmentalResponseModel
Forthelakes,includesseveral1Dmodelstosimulate
effectofwaterlevelchangesonwildrice,commonloon
muskrat,andwalleye.
Morecomplex2Dmodelsweredevelopedforlakesto
quantifyhabitatareaforwildrice,cattails,submergedand
emergentplants,wetmeadows,shrubbyswampsaswellas
northernpikeandwalleyespawninggrounds.
ForRainyRiver,2Dmodelsforsturgeonandwalleye
basedonflowcharacteristics(e.g.bottomslope,shear
stress)
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5.SharedVisionModel

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SharedVisionModel
Designedto:
InterpretresultsfromtheIERM
Integrateresultsfromotherstudies
Developevaluationmetricsthatcanbeusedtocomparerule
curvealternatives

EachModelSimulationwill:
Producewaterlevelsandflowsforspecificwatersupplyand
rulecurvealternative
Automaticallyinterpretwaterlevelsandflowsagainstasetof
predefinedPerformanceIndicatorsand
HydrologicMetrics
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SharedVisionModel
PerformanceIndicatorsandHydrologicMetrics
Predefined,basedonstudies,IERMoutput
Representaquantitative,sciencebasedunderstandingofthe
studyandmodelsubjects
Willformthebasisforcomparisonofdifferentrulecurve
alternativesundertheSVPapproach.
TheStudyBoardandTWGwillexaminetheresultsofall
supportingstudiesforpossiblePIsthatareamenabletobeing
integratedintotheSVMortheIERM,includingthoseusedinthe
WOEanalysis.
Incaseswheretherearenoexistingstudiestosupportthe
developmentofneededPIs,theStudyBoardwillattemptto
developtherequiredinformation.
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HydrologicMetrics
Statisticsonmeasurablewaterdata
Examples:
Frequencyofwaterlevel>Emergencylevel
%oftimewithinRuleCurverange
FirstDraftofSVMwillfocussolelyon
HydrologicMetrics

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PerformanceIndicators
Usedtoquantifynon
hydrologicoutcomesof
waterlevelsandflows
E.g.%ofyearswheregood
wildriceproduction
expected
Quantitativerelationship
betweenPIandwaterlevel
orflow

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6.RegulationandWaterSupplyAlternatives
SVMwillallowforchoiceofRegulationAlternative
andWaterSupplysetforeachmodelrun.
RegulationAlternatives:
1970RC,2000RC
StateofNature
Atleast3otheralternatives

WaterSupplyAlternatives:
Historic,simulatedcurrent,possiblefutureclimate
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WhatShouldaSharedVisionModelDo?

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7.DecisionWorkshops
The mathematical relationships that tie water levels and
performance together are PI functions. For example, a PI
function for flood damages might be structured to return
zero damage for water elevations below a certain level,
and then incremental damages of ten thousand dollars per
inch above that level. If the baseline plan produced
$50,000 in flood damage, and an alternative could reduce
the peak level by two inches, the flooding damages for the
alternative would be $30,000 for that event, creating a net
benefit of $20,000. Not all PIs will be measured in dollars,
so for now the results of the PI calculations are referred to
as scores or results.

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The mathematical relationships that tie water levels and


performance together are PI functions. For example, a PI
function for flood damages might be structured to return
zero damage for water elevations below a certain level,
and then incremental damages of ten thousand dollars per
inch above that level. If the baseline plan produced
$50,000 in flood damage, and an alternative could reduce
the peak level by two inches, the flooding damages for the
alternative would be $30,000 for that event, creating a net
benefit of $20,000. Not all PIs will be measured in dollars,
so for now the results of the PI calculations are referred to
as scores or results.

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8.PeakingandPonding
Intradayfluctuationsinoutflowfrom
powerhousesinFortFrances/I.Fallstomaximize
valueofenergygenerated
GenerallynotaconcernforRainyLakelevels,but
mayhaveimpactonecologicalandproperty
interestsalonglowerRainyRiver
Subcommitteeexamining

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7.ScheduleandDeliverables

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StudyMilestones
February,2016 StartofPublicCommentPeriodforDraftStudy
Strategy
March2016 InternationalRainyLakeoftheWoodsWatershed
Forum StudyBoardpublicinformationmeetings,Practice
DecisionWorkshop
Summer2016 PublicMeetingsthroughoutbasin
Late2016 FurtherPracticeDecisionWorkshops,updates
March21,2017 DraftreportsubmittedtotheIJC
May31,2017 FinaldraftreportsubmittedtotheIJC;Public
hearingstobeheldasrequired
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StudyStrategyPublicCommentPeriod
DraftStrategysoon
tobepublically
releasedbyIJC,
availableonwebsite
Willbeapublic
commentperiod,
normally30days

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March2016MeetingsinInternationalFalls
TuesdayMarch8
1:002:00:RCPAG StudyBoardmeeting,R.R.CommunityCollege
2:004:30PracticeDecisionWorkshop:
StudyBoard,TWG,RCPAG,RAG,IRLWWB,alsobywebinar

Evening IJCPublicOpenHouse,6:308:00pm
WednesdayMarch9
WatershedForum SidemeetingsforStudyBoardwithstakeholders
ThursdayMarch10

WatershedForum 1pm:WaterLevelRegulationSession,
StudyBoardPresentation
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FurtherInformation
http://ijc.org/en_/RNLRCSB

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