You are on page 1of 6

COM MENTARY

TO P ICS

VIRTUAL CROP TOU R

WEATHER

FARM MARKETING

AG SP EC ADVICE

WEEKLY REP O RTS

VIDEO

Weekly Ethanol Supply & Demand


Oct 28, 10:30 am | Biofuels, The Blog | Share this:

Weekly US ethanol production through last Friday totaled 277.5 Mil Gallons, down 2 Mil from the
previous week. This is also below the level needed to meet the USDAs forecast, and we calculate that
some 282 Mil Gal per week is required. Whether a seasonal boost in weekly grind occurs will be watched
closely into late autumn.

Seasonally, following harvest, ethanol plants to begin to ramp up production. But this year, the opposite

has occurred despite the crop being gathered rather quickly. Notice in the graphic above that production
has been trending downward albeit slightly since late September.

Weekly ethanol inventories as of Friday totaled 768.6 Mil Gallons, down a hefty 24 Mil from the previous
week, but supplies are still well above recent years. Current inventories rest 7% above last year, and
boosting demand will be difficult amid weakness in crude oil and crude products.

Total US crude supplies continue to balloon, despite weak prices, with supplies as of last week pegged at
1,175 Mil Barrels, up 10% from a year ago.

Motor gasoline stocks, too, rest some 8% above last year and note that winter is a seasonally weak time
for gasoline prices.

And perhaps the chart of the day is the difference between unleaded gasoline and ethanol futures.
AgResource calculates spot ethanol blending margins at a negative $.03/Gal. Theres little incentive to
boost blend and production rates in the near future. Ethanol will not be a major driver of corn prices into
late 2015.

Morning Weather Outlook

Mid-Day Commentary, Oct 28

Chg

0.13%
0.25%
0.65%
0.9%
2.13%
0.24%
-0.94%

2015 AgResource Company - Global agricultural market news, analysis, and advice
| Archive | DB/Stats | Subscribe | Contact | Home | Terms & Conditions | Privacy Policy | Log in |