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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, March 1, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of February 22, 2016 through February 28, 2016 are among a national sample of 30,294 adults aged 18 and
over, including 26,859 registered voters (+/- 1.0%), 8,759 registered Republican voters (+/-1.8%) and 8,702 registered Democratic
voters (+/-1.7%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.
TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

Strongly disapprove
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Over the past week, did you follow news about candidates for the 2016 presidential election:

2/22-2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Extremely Closely
18
19
18
18
16
12
13
13
13

Very closely
29
27
29
30
27
24
26
26
23

Somewhat closely
35
35
35
34
36
38
38
37
37

Not so closely
12
13
12
12
14
16
15
17
17

Not at all closely
5
6
6
6
7
9
8
8
9

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
-

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

No answer
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T  KNOW  FOR  
PARTY]

2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Republican presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Republican nomination for president? [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]*

2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Jeb
Bush
4
4
3
3
4
4
3
6

Ben
Carson
8
8
8
7
7
8
8
9
9

Chris
Christie
2
3
3
3
3
3
4

Ted
Cruz
18
19
18
20
20
17
21
20
18

Carly
Fiorina
1
2
2
2
3
2
3

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
2
1
2
2
2

John
Kasich
7
8
7
3
3
3
2
2
2

Rand
Paul
2
3
3
3
3
2

Marco
Rubio
21
16
14
17
12
10
11
11
13

Rick
Santorum
1
1

Donald
Trump
40
36
38
35
39
39
38
38
35

Don’t  
Know
6
7
6
5
4
9
5
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Democratic presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Democratic nomination for president ? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]*

Hillary Clinton
Martin  O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Don’t  know
No answer
2/22 – 2/28
51
41
8
1
2/15 – 2/21
51
40
9
1
2/8 – 2/14
50
40
9
1
2/1 – 2/7
51
1
39
8
1
1/25 – 1/31
50
2
39
8
1
1/18 – 1/24
51
2
37
9
1
1/11 – 1/17
52
1
36
9
2
1/4 – 1/10
52
2
37
8
1
12/28 – 1/3
53
2
36
8
1
* From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016
Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?

And what are the chances that you will vote for the candidate you just selected in the Republican primary or caucus in your state?
[AMONG REP & REP LEANERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE]

2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Absolutely certain I will
vote for this candidate

Large  chance  I’ll  vote  
for the candidate

50-50  chance  I’ll  vote  
for the candidate

Small  chance  I’ll  vote  
for the candidate

No
answer

47
43
42
41
43
37
40
40
38

34
35
38
40
37
40
39
39
40

16
18
16
15
17
20
19
18
20

3
4
3
4
2
2
2
2
3

1
1
1
-

And what are the chances that you will vote for the candidate you just selected in the Democratic primary or
caucus in your state? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE]

2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Absolutely certain I will
vote for this candidate

Large  chance  I’ll  vote  
for the candidate

50-50  chance  I’ll  vote  
for the candidate

Small  chance  I’ll  vote  
for the candidate

No
answer

57
53
55
55
52
49
50
51
48

27
28
28
28
31
32
32
31
33

12
15
14
13
14
16
15
15
15

3
4
2
3
2
3
2
3
3

1
1
1
1
1
1

In this list, who is your second choice for the Republican nomination for president in 2016? [AMONG REP & REP
LEANERS WHO MAY CHANGE THEIR VOTE]

2/22 – 2/28
12/28 – 1/3

Jeb
Bush
9

Ben
Carson
14
11

Chris
Christie
6

Ted
Cruz
19
22

Carly
Fiorina
5

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
3

John
Kasich
13
2

Rand
Paul
-

Marco
Rubio
23
13

Rick
Santorum
1

Donald
Trump
12
14

Don’t  
Know
18
11

No
answer
1
-

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the Republican nomination for president in 2016?
[AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]

2/22 – 2/28
2/8 – 2/14
2/1- 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
12/28 – 1/3

Jeb
Bush
3
2
3
5

Ben
Carson
2
2
2
2
5

Chris
Christie
1
1
2

Ted
Cruz
10
22
31
21
22

Carly
Fiorina
-

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
-

John
Kasich
1
2
1
1
1

Rand
Paul
-

Marco
Rubio
12
10
18
8
11

Rick
Santorum
-

Donald
Trump
71
56
42
62
49

No
answer
4
4
3
2
5

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the Democratic nomination for president in 2016?
[AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]

2/22 – 2/28
2/8 -2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
12/28 – 1/3

Hillary Clinton

Martin  O’Malley

Bernie Sanders

No answer

74
66
71
72
77

1
2

25
32
27
25
19

2
2
2
2
2

If you had to choose between only the following two candidates in the Republican primary for president, which one would you
support? [ASKED AMONG A RANDOM SUBSET OF REPUBLICAN AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS]

2/22 – 2/28

Donald Trump
55

Ted Cruz
42

No answer
3

If you had to choose between only the following two candidates in the Republican primary for president, which one would you
support? [ASKED AMONG A RANDOM SUBSET OF REPUBLICAN AND REPUBLICAN LEANERS]
Donald Trump
2/22 – 2/28

52

Marco
Rubio
46

No answer
2

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of February 22, 2016 through February 28, 2016 was
conducted online among a national sample of 30,294 adults aged 18 and over, including 26,859 who say they are registered to vote.
Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform
each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census
Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of
sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error,
coverage error, and measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an
error estimate. The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1 percentage point for the full sample and plus or
minus 1 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the
95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should
be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group

Unweighted N

Plus or minus

Total sample
Total RVs

30,294
26,859

1.0
1.0

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

8,759
8,702

1.8
1.7

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

3,053
3,607
4,336
6,394
7,418
5,486

3.0
2.6
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.1

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

23,467
2,585
1,932
2,310

1.1
3.0
3.4
3.2

Clinton voters
Sanders voters
Trump voters
Cruz voters
Rubio voters

6,592
5,447
4,620
2,389
3,026

1.9
2.1
2.4
3.4
3.1