North South Magazine March 2016

INTERNATIONAL CURRENT AFFAIRS MAGAZINE FOR NEWS & VIEWS TO BRIDGE THE GLOBAL DIVIDE
MARCH 2016
VOLUME 9 NO 2
PRICE 2.00 , $3.00, 2.30
Rise of Islamophobia
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ISSN 1755-0820
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Africa News Agency
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and Events to the World
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northsouth
Group Publisher
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Editor-in-Chief
editorial
Ali Bahaijoub
Africa Editor
Franklin Adesegha
World Affairs & Book Review Editor
Guy Arnold
Business Editor
Alan Brown
Europe Editor
Reiner Gatterman
Asia Editor
Sam Standing
Travel & Tourism Editor
Michael Barnard
Art & Entertainment Editor
Saskia Willis
North America Editor
Jem Sturgess
MIDDLE EAST Correspendent
Fay Ferguson
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Islamophobia seems to be able to

gather support across opposing
ideologies and there is a narrow
narrative on Islam partly due
to ignorance and partly because
some politicians want to use it as a
means to an end.
There are unfounded arguments
and socio-cultural factors that
have led to the proliferation of
increasingly violent and pervasive
demonstrations of Islamophobia.
Politicians seeking to raise their
profile by being populists have
focused on 9/11 events and the
atrocities of ISIS to pave the way
for those bent on simplifying and
separating the good from the bad,
the West from the East.
Many Europeans see symptoms
of the divide between the Muslim
and Western Worlds but struggle
to understand it or even try to
fathom some aspects of it. Then
comes the theory of the clash of
civilizations, formulated by Samuel
Huntington in 1996 and popularized
by researchers, journalists and
columnists, and has quickly become
the common heritage of a very broad
and diverse audience, as well as the
belief in the Judeo-Christian roots
of Europe. Nonetheless, it is a clash
of perceptions, misunderstanding
and interpretations.
It is also a great misrepresentation
of historical and social facts that
seem to be forgotten by so-called
historians and scientists who
benefited from the vast knowledge

of Islamic thoughts and scientific
discoveries when Europe was in the
dark ages.
The Muslim empire was the only
one in the history of mankind that
translated all works of scholars
and scientists across the world into
Arabic and transferred it into feudal
Europe via Morocco and Andalusia
(Spain today).
The idea of a threat to European
and American values and identity
has deeply penetrated into the social
fabric of these societies and their
psychic, to the point of belonging
both to the right and left of political
parties.
We even note that, as pointed out
by a recent report of the Council of
Europe, Muslim women are constantly victimized by those politicians, journalists, researchers, feminists professing to champion their
rights as is the case in France today whose motto is libert, galit,
fraternit. None of these concepts
apply to Muslim citizens in France
who are not free to wear a hijab,
not equal when it comes to jobs and
completely neglected and marginalised in suburban ghettos. Religious
fanatics of all faiths perpetrate violence that aggravate intercultural
tension and eventually leads to divisions, miscommunication, misinterpretation and misunderstanding
Islamophobia in Europe is a
complex and multi-dimensional
phenomenon and needs to be
eradicated as it is dangerous not
only for Europeans but also for
other minorities. Let us make sure
the bigoted do not succeed in their
effort to destroy the fabrics of
our societies, libverties, sense of
compassion and most importantly
our faiths.
Ali Bahaijoub, Editor
contents
news & views to bridge the global divide
28
33
39
31
29
02 Editorial
03 News and Briefs
13 Over the Top

Cover story
16 Islamophobia must be
eradicated by putting
right what is wrong
18 The roots of Islamophobia

19 Debunking Islamophobia
20 Donald Trump needs
31 Russia and the separatists

in Eastern Ukraine
33 The US and India
consider joint patrols

in South China Sea
34 Stirring up the South China

Sea: Oil in troubled waters
54 Environment
55 Innovations
56 Business Briefs
35 L ebanon needs to elect a
president to maintain stability
36 Z ika link to birth
66 Arts & Entertainment
21 Rise of fascist groups
38 E U Global Strategy:
68 Travel & Tourism
22 Is Islam going
39 D
espite the failed
70 Science News
24 The rise and rise of
41 V
enezuela on the edge
42 T hai election in 2017 even if
72 Motoring
43 P entagon thwarts Obamas
74 ICT
lessons in history
in Europe
through a crisis?
Islamophobia in Europe
26 What is Sharia Law?

features
27 French, US and UK
forces waging secret

war in Libya: report
28 Yemen: is peace possible?

29 100,000 migrant arrivals
and 450 deaths in EU
and crisis unresolved
defects could be proven

within weeks-WHO
Expert Opinion
revolution, Egypts ironfisted ruler wont last
constitution is rejected: PM
effort to close Guantanamo
47 Syrias elusive ceasefire

48 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2016
53 Britain agonises over
EU referendum
78 Sports
80 Life & Style
northsouth
March 2016
news
&brefs
Afghan civilian casualties

rose to 11,002 in 2015
the number of people killed and

wounded in conflict in Afghanistan
rose in 2015 to the highest level
yet recorded, the un mission in the
country says. there were 11,002
casualties in total, with a 37%
increase in women affected and 14%
for children.
the Afghan government accused
the taliban of targeting civilians,
especially women, to spread fear.
the uns human rights chief
said such brutal and unprincipled
attacks were forbidden under
international law.
this is happening with almost
complete impunity, Zeid raad alhussein said in the report produced
by the un Assistance Mission
for Afghanistan (unAMA). the
perpetrators of the violations... must
be held to account.
since
the
withdrawal
of
international
troops
from
Afghanistan began after 2011 and
the official end of nAtos combat
mission in December 2014, the
3
March 2016
number of civilian casualties has

risen year on year.
the
report
blamed
ground
fighting in and around populated
areas, along with suicide bombings
and other attacks in cities for the
3,545 deaths and 7,457 injuries it
recorded. this is a 4% increase on
last years figures.
Although there were 156 fewer
civilian deaths compared to 2014,
the number of injuries soared,
pushing the overall casualty figure
to the highest level since the un
started keeping records in 2009.
unprecedented
numbers
of
children were needlessly killed and
injured last year, unAMAs Danielle
Bell said in a statement.
the Afghan government said
the uns report did not accurately
reflect how many civilians were
killed in suicide attacks as it only
covered
high-conflict
areas
whereas its statistics covered the
whole country.
northsouth
Gulf States invest

billions in missile
defences
the Gulf states are investing
billions of dollars in advanced
missile defences designed to
protect
their
cities
against
attack from Iran, according to
the latest survey of the global
military balance published by the
International Institute of stratgic
studies (IIss).
Iran
has
countered
by
developing cruise missiles with
precision accuracy and ranges of
up to 1,200 miles.
From Kuwait in the Gulfs
northern waters to the united
Arab Emirates near the strait
of hormuz, five countries are
installing or upgrading ussupplied missile defences. this
huge investment is driven by
concern over Irans ballistic missile
arsenal, IIss.
Worlds biggest
advertising company
spent $4bn with Google
WPP, the worlds biggest advertising
agency holding company, spent huge
amounts on advertising with the
largest global digital media giants
last year. speaking to Business
Insider at the World Economic
Forums Annual Meeting in Davos,
WPP CEo sir Martin sorrell listed
the ever-growing amounts the
company has been spending on
behalf of its clients with Google,
Facebook, Yahoo, twitter, and AoL.
he said that his company spent $4
billion with Google and one billion
dollar with Facebook last year.
Nearly 300,000 civilian drones

registered in US in 30 days
Federal
Aviation
Administration
recorded details of about 10,000
unmanned aerial vehicles a day after
launching compulsory registration
Nearly 300,000 drones have been
registered in the US in the first 30 days,
the US Federal Aviation Administration
(FAA) has revealed.
Compulsory registration of civilian
drones in the US was introduced on 21
December 2015 covering all manner
of remote control flying systems from
toys to aerial cameras. Any small
unmanned aircraft weighing between
250g and 25kg must be registered
before being flown outdoors, and pilots
must be aged 13 or older.
FAA administrator Michael Huerta
said: The registration numbers were
seeing so far are very encouraging.
Were working hard to build on
this early momentum and ensure
everyone understands the registration
requirement. Owners who registered
before 21 January had their $5 fee
waived, while the online registration
system is only open to recreational
users. Drones must be registered every
three years, and clearly marked with
their registration number. Anyone who
operated a drone before 21 December
must register before 19 February to
continue legally flying it.
High profile incidents involving
drones have highlighted the need for
safety and accountability. In 2013 one
was flown towards German chancellor

Angela Merkel, and in May last year
there were attempts to fly over the
White House, while in December one
narrowly missed downhill skiing
champion Marcel Hirscher on the slope
in Italy.
Supplying the FAA with the name,
address and email address of the owner
is part of the registration process,
which is intended to help prevent abuse
and nuisance drones. Currently when
a drone is captured it is difficult to
trace back to an owner. The FAA hopes
that registration will help. Around
one million drones were expected to
be sold in the US by the end of 2015,
which means only about one-third of
those newly acquired drones have been
registered.
The current legislation in the United
Kingdom is different. It is illegal to fly
a drone within 50 metres of a building
or a person and 150 metres of a builtup area. In addition, the maximum
flight height is 400 metres and the
drone has to remain in line of sight
and within 500 metres of the pilot.
But civil drones do not currently
need to be registered.
Commercial drone pilots must
complete a training course and apply
for a permit from the Civil Aviation
Authority to fly the drone.
Syrian conflict shattering future generation

A generation of children in Syria is
seeing hopes and futures shattered
as the country is ripped apart by
nearly six years of civil war and
Islamic State terror, a humanitarian
chief has warned. Dr Peter Salama,
Unicefs regional director for the
Middle East and North Africa, told
of a race against time to help many
of these youngsters whose families
have been forced to flee the conflictravaged nation.
A fifth of the Syrian population,
or 4.3 million, has already left the
country, according to the UN body.

More than 13.5 million people,
including six million children,
who have remained in Syria, are
in urgent need of humanitarian
assistance, it added. A third of the
total, including two million children,
are living in hard-to-reach and
besieged areas such as the tourist
resort of Madaya, close to Damascus,
Koah and Kefraya. The impact of
the Syria conflict is being felt by
children right across the region, Dr
Salama said adding Its not just the
EU Parliament
backs European
Defence Union
The European Parliament (EP)

approved a multi-party resolution
on 21 January calling on the 28
member states to create a European
Union (EU) defence structure.
Europes pressing security threats,
combined with Frances decision
to invoke the Lisbon Treatys
mutual defence clause (Article
42.7) after the 13 November 2015
terrorist attacks on Paris, are the
grounds for creating a strong
and sustainable European Defence
Union, the resolution states.
The activation of Article 42.7
should be the catalyst for
unleashing the potential of all the
security- and defence-related treaty
provisions that should follow
suit, states the resolution, adding
that only with an autonomous
security and defence capability
will the EU be equipped and ready
to face the overwhelming internal
and external security threats and
challenges.
Immigration helps
poor countries more
than foreign aid
Money sent back to home countries
by foreign workers dwarfs state
aid budgets and is better targeted,
according to the Adam Smith
Institute (ASI).
Foreign aid should be slashed
and
replaced
with
a
more
liberal immigration system, the
Westminster think tank has said.
In a new report the ASI said
allowing people to move to the
United
Kingdom
from
poor
countries to work could boost their
income 20 to 30 times. The report
also argues that doling out billions
in foreign aid risks propping up
corrupt kleptocratic governments
while having little impact on
development.
northsouth
March 2016
news
&brefs
Russian deployment of
new Pantsyr to Syria confirmed
Russia has deployed the new

version of the Pantsyr air defence
system to its Humaymim airbase in
Syria, footage broadcast by the RT
news channel on 3 February has
confirmed.
Russia has had at least one
Pantsyr-S1 at Humaymim since 3
October 2015, when its Ministry
of Defence released a photograph

showing one in the background.
The RT footage showed a second
system with the new bidirectional
radar now deployed at the base. This
also appears to be the first time the
new Pantsyr version has been seen
in Russian service.
RT identified the system as a
Pantsyr-S2: a new version the
Russian military said it would take
into service in 2015.
The version with the bidirectional
radar has already been delivered
to both Algeria and Iraq and was
labelled as a Pantsyr-S1 when it was
displayed at the MAKS show held in
Russia in August 2015.
Bloomberg considers $1bn presidential bid

Former New York City Mayor
Michael Bloomberg is looking to
mount a $1 billion bid for the White
House as an independent candidate,
with sources saying he is alarmed
by Donald Trump at the top of the
GOP field and Democrat Bernie
Sanders surge past Hillary Clinton
in the polls.
The billionaire former mayor has
considered independent presidential
runs in the past, reports The New
York Times, but decided against
them after concluding he could not
win.
However, Bloomberg has already
taken steps toward a campaign,
telling people close to him that he
would spend at least $1 billion of
his personal fortune on it, the Times
said. Spending heavily to win office
is not unusual for the billionaire
founder of a financial services
and news company that bears his
name. He shelled out an estimated
5
March 2016
$250 million on his three mayoral

campaigns, the Times reported in
2009.
Bloomberg, 73, has set his deadline
for making a decision in early
March, when advisers believe he
could still qualify to be on the ballot
in all 50 states as an independent.
His team plans to conduct a poll
after the 9 February New Hampshire
primary to assess the state of the
race. No independent has ever won
a US presidential election.
An unnamed Bloomberg adviser
said the former mayor believes
voters want a non-ideological,
bipartisan, results-oriented vision
that neither major party is offering.
Bloomberg is likely to abandon
his 2016 bid if Hillary Clinton
wins the Democratic nomination
despite Sanders surge, said former
Pennsylvania Governor Edward G.
Rendell, a past Democratic National
Committee chairman.
northsouth
Obama sent a $4
trillion budget to
Congress
President Obama sent his final
annual budget proposal to a
hostile Republican-led Congress,
seeking $19 billion for a broad
new cybersecurity initiative and
rejecting the lame-duck label as
he declared that his plan is about
looking forward.
The budget for fiscal year 2017,
which starts on 1 October, would
top $4 trillion, although only
about one-quarter of that is the
so-called discretionary spending
for
domestic
and
military
programmes that the president
and Congress bicker over each
year.
Hacker publishes
personal info of
20,000 FBI agents
While America was getting ready to
watch the Super Bowl last month,
a hacker promised he would dump
online a list of 20,000 agents of the
Federal Bureau of Investigation
and 9,000 Department of Homeland
Security officers. Right after the big
games kickoff, the cybercriminal
carried out part of his promise,
publishing a list of 9,000 DHS
employees.
BuzzFeed faces business challenges

BuzzFeed has mastered the art
of distributed publishing, using
platforms like Facebook, Snapchat
and others to amass massive
audience attention. The publisher
boasts a mind-boggling 5 billion
views per month of its articles
and videos, spread out across
30 platforms, from Facebook to
Pinterest to Snapchat. In a month it
does 3 billion video views, less than
5 percent of which are on BuzzFeed.
com. The bet is simple: publish
content where people are, rather
than forcing them to come to you.
BuzzFeeds move, underway for a
year now, was ahead of the curve.
Now, publishers are clamoring to
get involved in publishing directly
to Facebook, Snapchat and other
platforms.
But BuzzFeed must navigate a
thorny transition, as it seeks to
follow the Silicon Valley credo of
upending your business before
others do so for you. In less than 10
years, the site has become the fifthbiggest news site based on desktop
and mobile traffic, ahead of The

New York Times and Fox News,
according to SimilarWeb. But traffic
to its owned properties, desktop
and mobile, is flat, according to
comScore. The company has pulled
back on its torrid hiring pace. Two
people with direct knowledge of the
companys finances said it missed its
revenue growth goal last year.
With the weight of the company
shifting to the distributed model,
and video in particular, BuzzFeeds
cut the minimum price of its ad
programs, once $100,000, making it
more affordable for smaller brands.
BuzzFeed has the brand and
resources to figure out this transition
it took a $200 million venture
investment from NBCUniversal last
August but it will need to create
a new world once it has burned the
boats. BuzzFeed declined to make
executives available for comment
for this story, which is based on
interviews with several advertising
executives and two former BuzzFeed
executives.
Ranks of US centenarians
growing rapidly- report
The number of Americans living
beyond their 100th birthday has
surged nearly 44 per cent since the
turn of the century, according to a
U.S. study.
Better medical care and healthier
lifestyles helped to boost US
centenarians ranks to 72,197 in
2014 from 50,281 in 2000, the
Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention report said. More than
80 per cent of the centenarians were
female.
The numbers should keep rising,
since the death rate for centenarians
has fallen since 2008, noted the
studys author, Jiaquan Xu. Some
projections show there could be
387,000 US centenarians in 35
years, he noted.
Genetic research indicates that

about 17 per cent of the U.S.
population has traits that increase
their chances of living past 100, said
Dr. Thomas Perls, a geriatrician
and director of the New England
Centenarian Study at Boston Medical
Center.
The top causes of death among
centenarians in 2014 were heart
disease, Alzheimers disease, stroke,
cancer, influenza and pneumonia,
the CDC study found.
Deaths from Alzheimers increased
119 percent between 2000 and 2014,
which Xu attributed to greater
awareness of the disease, resulting
in more diagnoses.
Tokyo police
use flying net to
capture illicit UAVs
The Tokyo Metropolitan Police
Department is using multicopters
equipped with large nets to
catch in mid-air unauthorised
unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVsdrones)
that
may
threaten
public safety, a video posted by
the
NowThisFuture
popular
science
media
organisation
demonstrated.
The video posted on the
organisations Facebook page
shows a six-rotored UAV, similar
to an MK Hexacopter, of the
Tokyo police dragging a large
net beneath it. The police UAV is
flown over the flight path of the
illicit UAV, capturing it in the net
before returning it to the ground.
This innovation is part of a
global trend to develop counterUAV (C-UAV) technology as cheap,
easy-to-operate
RC
aircraft,
helicopters, quadcopters, and
multicopters have proliferated.
The dangers that such UAVs
can present either by intent or
accident has been illustrated by
a spate of recent incidents that
have included the overflight of
nuclear power stations in France,
the landing of a quadcopter on the
White House lawn in Washington,
DC, and the buzzing of German
chancellor Angela Merkel at an
election rally in Dresden.
While none of these incidents
have been attributed to terrorist
or criminal motives so far,
the potential is obvious, as is
possibility of a catastrophic
accident should such a vehicle
collide with a commercial airliner,
which has nearly happened close
to a number of airports on several
occasions already this year.
northsouth
March 2016
news
&brefs
Over 3,770 migrants died crossing

the Med to Europe in 2015
2015 was the deadliest year on
record for migrants and refugees
crossing the Mediterranean, trying
to reach Europe with over 3,770
estimated deaths. In comparison,
approximately 3,270 deaths were
recorded in the Mediterranean in
2014. Globally, IOM estimates that
over 5,350 migrants died in 2015.
The deadliest month in 2015
was April when nearly 1,250
migrants died, mainly due to
the worst tragedy on record
involving
migrants
crossing
the Mediterranean from North
Africa, in which an estimated
800 migrants died when their
overcrowded vessel capsized off the
coast of Libya. Only 28 survivors
were rescued and brought to Italy.
77% of the deaths occurred
in the Central Mediterranean
route mostly used by smugglers
operating from Libyan shores.
This compares to 97% of migrant
deaths recorded along this route
in 2014.
In 2015, 21% of deaths occurred
in the Eastern Mediterranean
compared to only 1% in 2014. In
the Central Mediterranean, deaths
recorded were down by 9% from
last year with the rate of death
at 18.5 deaths per every 1,000
travellers.
Globally, the majority of the
estimated 5,350 deaths were
recorded with the Mediterranean,
the most deadly region, followed
by Southeast Asia (mostly in the
Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea,
Malaysia and Thailand) which
saw at least 800 deaths this year.
Within Mexico and along the US-
March 2016
Mexico border there have been

at least 330 deaths recorded last
year.
Reacting to the 2015 figures,
IOM Director General William
Lacy Swing, said: It is shocking
and inexcusable that desperate
migrants and refugees have lost
their lives in record numbers this
year, when they should not. The
international community world
must act now to stop this trend
against desperate migrants.
Migration has been the major
theme of 2015, with record
numbers of refugees and migrants
arriving in Europe, fleeing from
conflict and acute poverty.
Throughout the year, we have
been reminded that much of human
mobility is not voluntary and
tragically we have seen so many
who felt they had no option but to
leave their beloved homelands and
were lost at sea, in the deserts or
trapped in the back of lorries they
had hoped would carry them to a
safer and better life, said Swing.
One of the major challenges
for the coming years would be
for the international community
to
work
diligently
towards
changing from the current toxic
migration narrative to one that
is more historically accurate,
namely, that migration has been
overwhelmingly positive. We can
do this through measures that will
help governments and societies to
manage diversity.
This will require addressing
several paradoxes of (a) national
sovereignty
of
states
and
individual aspiration of migrants;
northsouth
and,
(b)
protecting
national
security on the one hand and
human security on the other,
Ambassador Swing said.
IOMs Missing Migrants Project
which draws on a range of sources
to track deaths of migrants along
migratory routes across the
globe is managed by IOMs Global
Migration Data Analysis Centre
(GMDAC) in Berlin, Germany.
Data from this project was
initially published in the report
Fatal Journeys: Tracking Lives
Lost during Migration, which
provided the most comprehensive
global tally of migrant fatalities
for 2014, and estimates deaths
over the past 15 years.
Since the publication of Fatal
Journeys, IOM has regularly
updated the global estimated
figures of migrants who have gone
missing or have died during the
migration process.
AOL to include tools

that help publishers
sell to advertisers
The American internet provider
AOL (American On Line) has
developed an offering that gives
publishers a way to monetize
their work without having to use
tools from multiple companies.
Called One by AOL: Publishers,
it consolidates the companys
portfolio of services into a single
package that provides audience
engagement, analytics, content
distribution,
and
revenue
management all in one place.
UN and World Bank launch panel on water

The United Nations and World Bank
announced the launch of a High-Level
Panel on Water at World Economic
Forum Annual Meeting 2016. The
panel is to mobilize urgent action on
the Sustainable Development Goal
for water, sanitation and related
targets. Co-chaired by the President of
Mauritius and the President of Mexico,
the panel will comprise a group of
heads of state and government from
developed and developing countries. It
will also engage with a wide range of
stakeholders and experts and leverage
the networks and platforms of the
Forum in support of its objectives.
Water is a precious resource, crucial
to realizing the SDGs, which at their

heart aim to eradicate poverty, said
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
The new Panel can help motivate
the action we need to turn ideas into
reality. The United Nations system,
including through UN Water and the
United Nations development systems
universal operational presence, is
committed to promote inclusive and
country-led action on SDG6 and related
targets. The panel will motivate action
and focus public-policy dialogue,
private-sector models and practices
and civil society initiatives towards the
Water SDG. It will advocate financing
and implementation and promote
efforts to mobilize financial resources

and scale up investment for the Water
SDG, including through innovative
financing
and
implementation
strategies. The High-Level Panel is an
important effort. The mark of success
for the panel will be practical action
and tangible impact. Let this be an
opportunity to break down silos at the
highest level and collaborate with the
private sector and others, building on
existing partnerships and initiatives
to bring these efforts to scale and to
transform the water agenda, said
Peter Brabeck-Letmathe, Chairman
of Nestle and Chairman of the 2030
Water Resources Group.
Does the one percent rule the world?

The global inequality crisis is
reaching new extremes. The richest
1% now has more wealth than the
rest of the world combined. Power
and privilege is being used to skew
the economic system to increase the
gap between the richest and the rest,
according to Oxfam international. A
global network of tax havens further
enables the richest individuals to hide
$7.6 trillion. The fight against poverty
will not be won until the inequality
crisis is tackled. Is it therefore a mere
consequence of such wealth that
our world run by the richest 1%?
The richest one per cent gets more
powerful every year. It is one of the
most popular conspiracy theories that
claim a tiny number of rich individuals
own 99% of the worlds resources. The
gap between rich and poor is reaching
new extremes. Credit Suisse recently
revealed that the richest 1% have
now accumulated more wealth than
the rest of the world put together.1
This occurred a year earlier than
Oxfams much-publicized prediction
ahead of last years World Economic
Forum. Meanwhile, the wealth owned
by the bottom half of humanity has
fallen by a trillion dollars in the
past five years. This is just the latest
evidence that today we live in a world
with levels of inequality we may not
have seen for over a century. An

Economy for the 1%2 looks at how
this has happened, and why, as well
as setting out shocking new evidence
of an inequality crisis that is out of
control. Oxfam has calculated that:
In 2015, just 62 individuals had
the same wealth as 3.6 billion people
the bottom half of humanity. This
figure is down from 388 individuals
as recently as 2010. The wealth of
the richest 62 people has risen by 45%
in the five years since 2010 thats an
increase of more than half a trillion
dollars ($542bn), to $1.76 trillion.
Meanwhile, the wealth of the bottom
half fell by just over a trillion dollars
in the same period a drop of 38%.

Since the turn of the century, the
poorest half of the worlds population
has received just 1% of the total
increase in global wealth, while half
of that increase has gone to the top
1%. The average annual income of
the poorest 10% of people in the world
has risen by less than $3 each year in
almost a quarter of a century. Their
daily income has risen by less than
a single cent every year. Growing
economic inequality is bad for us all
it undermines growth and social
cohesion. Yet the consequences for the
worlds poorest people are particularly
severe.
Manila slums
northsouth
March 2016
news
&brefs
Almost 19,000 Iraqi civilians

killed since 2014, UN
In figures it calls staggering, the
United Nations says that almost
19,000 civilians have been killed
and more than 36,000 wounded in
violence in Iraq since the start of
2014. In a new joint report published
by the UN Assistance Mission for
Iraq and the Office of the UN High
Commissioner for Human Rights,
it listed a large number of atrocities
committed by the Islamic State of
Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group. It
also called on the government to do
more to stop sectarian violence and
help displaced families to return
to their homes. Even the obscene
casualty figures fail to accurately
reflect exactly how terribly civilians
are suffering in Iraq, UN rights
chief Zeid Raad Al Hussein said in a
statement.
The figures capture those who
were killed or maimed by overt
violence, but countless others have
died from the lack of access to basic
food, water or medical care.
The UNs figures are based on
casualties reported between January
2014 and October 2015.
The joint report highlighted abuses
committed by ISIL, saying that about
3,500 people were currently being
held as slaves in Iraq by the armed
group.
Those
being
held
are
predominantly women and children
and come primarily from the Yazidi
community, but a number are also
from other ethnic and religious
minority communities, the UN report
said. The report detailed executions
by shooting, beheading, bulldozing,
burning alive and throwing people
off the top of buildings.
[ISIL]
continues
to
commit
systematic and widespread violence
and abuses of international human
rights law and humanitarian law.
These acts may, in some instances,
amount to war crimes, crimes against
humanity, and possibly genocide,
the UN said. The UN reported that
more than 3.2 million people were
internally displaced (IDPs) because
of violence in the period between
January 2014 and October 2015.
Al Jazeeras Mohammed Jamjoom,
reporting from Baghdad, said that
more than one million of the internally
displaced people were children.
Sectarian tensions continue to rise
and this makes it all the more difficult
for displaced people in Iraq, he said,
adding that the UN was pushing for
the international community to do
more to help the Iraqi government
to assist the growing number of
homeless families.
3,000 displaced in
violence in northern
Myanmar state- UN
The United Nations (UN) says
thousands of people have been
displaced amid clashes between
different ethnic rebel groups
in Myanmars northern state of
Shan.
The UN said fighting had
erupted between members of the
Restoration Council for Shan
State (RCSS) and the Taang
National
Liberation
Army
(TNLA).
We are receiving reports that
more than 3,000 people have been
displaced in the past week, said
the head of the UNs Office for the
Coordination of Humanitarian
Affairs (OCHA) in Myanmar,
Mark Cutts, adding that most
of those who have recently been
displaced are being housed
in monasteries in the town of
Kyaukme and are currently
receiving assistance from local
groups and the Myanmar Red
Cross.
The violence comes as efforts to
sign a nationwide peace deal were
threatened after the Myanmarese
government hesitated to include
a number of groups currently
engaged in fighting, including
the TNLA.
The government in Myanmar
has been in power since 2011,
when it replaced a military junta.
Italy the vainest country in the world

Brits might get accused of being
vain, but it turns out were not even
top of the list of countries when it
comes to time spent on personal
grooming.
That honour goes to Italy, where
people spend an average of 5.6
hours each week bathing, shaving,
dressing doing their hair and
9
March 2016
perfecting their make-up.

Thats according to a new study
by market research group GfK. The
study - based on interviews with
more than 27,000 consumers in 15
countries to find out who is spending
the most time in front of the mirror
and why - discovered that Italians
have the least disparity between men
northsouth
and women - spending five hours

and 6.23 hours respectively.
Brits spend a relatively small
average of 4.6 hours each week
making themselves look more
attractive, meaning the UK comes
in at place number 10 on the list,
behind the likes of Argentina, the
US, France and Germany.
Asia and Middle East lead

rise in arms imports
The
volume
of
international
transfers of major weapons has
grown continuously since 2004 and
rose by 14 per cent between 2006
10 and 201115, according to new
data on international arms transfers
published
by
the
Stockholm
International
Peace
Research
Institute (SIPRI).
Six of the top 10 largest arms
importers in the 5-year period 2011
15 are in Asia and Oceania: India
(14 per cent of global arms imports),
China (4.7 per cent), Australia (3.6
per cent), Pakistan (3.3 per cent),
Viet Nam (2.9 per cent) and South
Korea (2.6 per cent). Viet Nams
arms imports rose by 699 per cent.
Arms imports by states in Asia and
Oceania increased by 26 per cent
between 200610 and 201115, with
states in the region receiving 46 per
cent of global imports in 201115.
Arms imports by states in the
Middle East rose by 61 per cent
between 20062010 and
201115. In 201115 Saudi Arabia
was the worlds second largest arms
importer, with an increase of 275 per
cent compared to 200610. In the

same period, arms imports by the
United Arab Emirates rose by 35 per
cent and those by Qatar went up by
279 per cent. Egypts arms imports
increased by 37 per cent between
200610 and 201115, primarily
due to a steep rise in 2015.
With a 33 per cent share of total
arms exports, the USA was the top
arms exporter in
201115. Its exports of major
weapons increased by 27 per cent
compared to 200610. Russian
exports of major weapons increased
by 28 per cent between 200610
and 201115, and Russia accounted
for 25 per cent of global exports in
the recent 5-year period. However,
in 2014 and 2015 Russian exports
returned to the lower annual levels
observed in 200610.
Chinese exports of major arms
were just above those of France in
201115, growing by
88 per cent compared to 200610.
French exports decreased by 9.8 per
cent and German exports halved
over the same period.
The worlds first parliament

to go entirely solar is ...
Pakistan has become the worlds first
parliament to be powered entirely by
solar, according to media reports.
Most of the energy generated will
be used to power parliament, with
anything thats left over being fed
into the national grid.
Parliamentary
speaker,
Ayaz
Sadiq, said: The solar panels in
the house generate 80 mega-watts
of electricity, 62 mega-watts of
which are consumed by the National
Assembly and 18 mega-watts are
contributed to the national grid.
Special secretary at the National
Assembly, Munawar Abbas Shah,
previously said: This is the first

project of its kind [in a public
building] in Pakistan, and later more
public buildings will be converted to
solar power to overcome the energy
crisis.
The consumption of electricity in
the parliament even jumps over two
megawatts in summers when the
house is in session.
The project was initiated during
Chinese President Xi Jinpings visit
to Pakistan back in April 2014.
The Israeli parliament installed
solar panels onto the roof of its
building last year, creating what
Bill Gates says

US should take
more refugees
The United States should set
better example to the world and
take in more refugees, Microsoft
founder Bill Gates says. Gates told
the BBC that the nation has the
capacity to follow such countries
as Germany and Sweden, who
are to be congratulated for
welcoming refugees with opens
arms.
The billionaire philanthropist
said he realizes that loosening
immigration laws is not easy
and that governments have to
cope with tight budgets. But he
said he believes the issue is mostly
political.
The total number of refugees
is not a world record, said Gates,
who heads The Bill & Melinda Gates
Foundation, the largest charitable
group in the world.
The
foundation
has
an
endowment of more than $40
billion.
At last years World Economic
Forum, Gates said two new tools
to fight AIDS should be available
by 2030 in the form of a vaccine
and new intense drug treatments,
ending most cases of a disease that
has killed millions in the past 30
years
was then the largest solar field
of any national assembly in the
world. It said that the 1,500 solar
panels would cover 10 per cent of its
electricity usage.
northsouth
March 2016
10
from North-South Books

Guy Arnold is an internationally acclaimed author, a
journalist and a lecturer in international affairs specialising
in Africa and relations between the developed and the
developing worlds (North and South). After spending
decades in the African continent acquiring a vast experience
on the politics and international relations, he has written
over fifty books on African and international affairs
including Kenyatta and the Politics of Kenya; Modern Nigeria; Modern Kenya;
Aid in Africa; The last Bunker (South Africa); South Africa: Crossing the
Rubicon; The New South Africa; Historical Dictionary of Civil Wars in Africa;
Africa: a Modern History (19602000); Political and Economic Encyclopaedia of
Africa; The Maverick State: Gaddafi and the New World Order; Morocco in the
21st Century; Migration: Changing the World; and America and Britain: Was
There Ever A Special Relationship?
Guy Arnold
Historical, regional and international

dimensions
He has also written a number of books on the North and South countries,
prominent among them are: The End of the Third World; Wars in the Third
World Since 1945; World Government by Stealth (United Nations);
Mercenaries: The Scourge of the Third World; World strategic Highways;
The international Drugs Trade; Historical Dictionary of the Non-Aligned
movement and the Third World. His most recent book is America and Britain:
Was There Ever A Special Relationship?
This Encyclopaedia is an essential informative reading for those interested in
contemporary African affairs.
Dr Ali Bahaijoub
ali Bahaijoub
Dr Ali Bahaijoub is Editor-in-Chief of North-South Publications. A former

lecturer, writer and journalist, he has written numerous studies and feature
articles on Africa, Europe and the Middle East and comments on various
international issues for the BBC, CNN, France24 and other global networks.
ISBN 978-0-9563070-4-0
W
E
N
9 780956 307040
Encyclopaedia of Africa
Guy Arnold
edited by Ali Bahaijoub
Encyclopaedia of Africa
WeSTeRN SaHaRa cONflicT:
WeSTeRN SaHaRa
cONflicT:
Guy Arnold
ali Bahaijoub
20.00
from North-South
Books
NORTH-SOUTH BOOKS
25.00
North-South Books
City Business Centre
Unit 17
Lower Road
London SE16 2XB,
United Kingdom
Telephone: +44 2072 523000
Email:
northsouthbooks@aol.com
to order a copy visit:
www.northsouthpublications.com
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Paperback 15.00
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postage included
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over
e
top!
h
t
Welsh man discovers dad
was Malaysian sultan
Bangladesh pilgrims
on packed train
Pilgrims leave Tongi on a packed train after taking part in

a Muslim festival. Millions flocked to the banks of the River
Turag, north of Dhaka, for the annual world congregation
where they prayed for global peace. It is the worlds second
largest gathering of Muslims for a religious event.
Welsh coal merchant Keith Williams has found

out that he is descended from royalty after
discovering that he is the first-born son of a
Malaysian sultan. Mr Williams was adopted at
the age of two.
When he became a grandfather, his daughter,
Melanie, persuaded him to find out more about
his origins. The 64-year-old me this biological
mother Elizabeth Rosa, who told him she was a
trainee nurse in Surrey when she met a student
and fell pregnant aged 17.
She went home to Swansea and when she tried
to find the student again he had gone. He was
Idris Iskandar Al-Mutawakkil Alallahi Shah, who
became the 33rd sultan of the Perak state in 1963
and served until his death in 1984.
Worlds first hangover clinic

opens for business
The worlds first hangover cure
clinic has opened up, but boozers be
warned - its not cheap. But before
you drag yourself out of bed the
price tag might be enough to put
you off - the cheapest treatments on
offer are 66 a go. And 95 will get
you an hours treatment, painkillers
to shake off your headache and a
dose of oxygen therapy. Max Petro
from the clinic said: Weve had a lot
of people saying, I cant

drink like I used to. I
cant recover like I used
to. Were just there to
make sure people can
get on with their day.
Thankfully
the
Sydney-based service takes the
misery that hangovers can cause
very seriously.
Clinic employee Rod Lang said
their treatments are a better idea
than munching down on junk food
to kill the pain. He said: As we
all know, some hangovers can be
terrible and some people cant even
get out of bed. Having intravenous
fluids, that can have benefits.
As for having something like
World biggest
snake
The biggest snake ever was
discovered by builders in Brazil
near an Amazonian lake.
The reptile was an anaconda
measuring 9.75 metres long.
northsouth
March 2016
12
Two-headed calf stuns villagers
A calf born with two heads has

stunned farmers in a small village.
The animal was born from a cow
who has given birth to three healthy
calves in the past.
And it would likely have been
dismissed by villagers, they say had they not seen it with their own
eyes. Farmer Gan Yuanhua said: I
heard the cow shuffling around and
making odd noises in the shed, and
I knew she was about to give birth.
From his home in Shaijin Village

in Linshui County, in south-west
Chinas Sichuan Province, he said
he initially thought the cow had
given birth to twins when he saw
the two heads and did not realise
immediately that it was a mutation.
The cow reportedly died shortly
after birth. Xu Kaiwen, a local vet
who has been practicing for 30
years, said the calfs condition was
caused by a genetic mutation which
has yet to be identified. The unusual
condition of being born with two
heads is called polycephaly and
occurs in both animals and humans.
The most common cause is that two
identical twins begin to form from
the same egg, but do not separate
correctly and end up sharing
the same body. In the majority of
cases, animals and humans with
polycephaly die soon after birth.
Newborn baby found in bucket

with umbilical cord
A newborn baby has been found
abandoned in a bucket of water
by a policeman who quickly ran
to a nearby hospital in a bid to
save its life.
The remarkable footage was
captured on the body cam of an
officer who accompanied the
baby to the intensive care unit.
The baby still had the umbilical
cord attached and was covered
in amniotic fluid when he was
taken out of the green bucket.
14
March 2016
Weighing just 3lbs 1oz, doctors

believe the tiny tot was born
around a month premature.
The officers received a call
from a member of public who
found the stranded newborn and
quickly raced to help.
The police didnt wait for an
ambulance to arrive but grabbed
the child. The newborn was
diagnosed with hypothermia and
the babys mother is still being
hunted.
The
incident
happened
in
the
same area as another
abandoned
baby
who
was
rescued
in
January
when
a
police
officer
saved its life by
breastfeeding
the
starving newborn.
The
heroic
apolicewoman
northsouth
Jilted lover rolls

naked after
failed proposal
A man rolled around in the middle
of a street after being rejected
during his very public marriage
proposal on Valentines Day.
The
man
had
apparently
stripped naked and thrown rose
petals into the middle of the road
in an attempt to impress his lover
and secure her hand in marriage.
But the video captures the
moment it all seems to go a little
bit wrong, with the man resorting
to rolling around in the middle of
the street and yelling in pain after
his girlfriend apparently turns
his offer down.
Behind the man, the driver a
huge yellow truck honks his horn
several times, as a line of traffic
begins to queue up around the
distraught romantic.
It is thought the footage was
filmed in China, but the exact
location is not clear.
Unsurprisingly, it didnt take
long before viewers were leaving
comments on the video, with one
writing: I take it she said NO.
saved the hours-old baby who
had been dumped in the woods,
by
breastfeeding
her
while
paramedics arrived. Both incident
happened in the Santiago de Cali
area of west Colombia.
Dad finds human skull in garden

A dad refurbishing his home had a
shock when he unearthed a human
skull with sparkling white teeth
buried in the garden - but the reason
why it was there is more disturbing.
The man posted the story of how he
found the skull on Imgur, which
begins with him, his daughter and
the dog digging up the garden.
He wrote: So we had a bit of
excavation work done. Our house
needed under pinning to fix up the
foundations, which meant we had to
bring in the big guns and dig down
a metre and a half along the front
of the house. Everything was going
smoothly.
It was all quite ordinary until the
dog got involved. Of course, rather
than keeping her eye on the job she
sniffed out a bone or two. Until
fragments of a skull started turning
up. And then more. Things started
getting interesting when more pieces
of skull started appearing. And
even more. When they kept turning
up work slowed down. Eventually
quite a collection was unearthed,
including what is obviously a
human jaw bone complete with its

pearly white. But things got more
serious when the police were called.
He continued: Eventually the police
showed up.
Then more came. Most of the time
seemed to be spent confirming it was
human. No one trusted anyone else
to make the call. Once everyone
agreed it was human, forensics were
called in, photographs were taken
and the remains were whisked away.
And then it was over. Eventually,
the dad reveals the chilling truth the family home is situated on top of
an old cemetery. He said: Our house
is situated on top of a cemetery
in operation from 1840 to 1872
(Wesleyan Burial Ground).
When
the
cemetery
was
decommissioned the remains were
taken to Cornelian Bay Cemetey,
but obviously they missed a few.
Once a few intensive google
searches were done they declared
it wasnt suspicious and have got
the local university to bring some
archeologists over to scout through
the rest of the disturbed ground.
Mum gives up toothpaste, shampoo

and toilet rolls to save thousands
A
woman
ditched
shampoo,
toothpaste and even toilet paper
during a year of frugal living - and
saved herself 11,000 in the process.
Eco-friendly mum Zoe Morrison,
from Hove, East Sussex, gave up
basic hygiene products to search for
green alternatives for her family. She
stopped using shampoo, swapped
toothpaste for bicarbonate of soda
and even stopped using toilet paper
for a month. Instead, the mum-of-two
came up with bizarre methods for
keeping clean - including using a
water pistol. She also rented a room
to a lodger, grew her own vegetables
and had solar panels installed on
her roof. Amazingly, these low-cost
solutions saved her 11,000 - and
helped clear her environmental

conscience too. Zoe, 36, said: I tried
cutting out different things to see
the effects. I stopped using shampoo
and toothpaste and even loo roll for
a month...
I washed instead of wiped. I
really like cleaning my teeth with
bicarbonate of soda - although I
did have to have a filling after just
using it, but I suspect my dentist
was looking extra hard. My teeth
felt cleaner. I tried a range of
alternatives to shampoo. I went a
month without shampoo and I did
start to get hair envy of other people.
I dont use shampoo on my kids.
They tell you not to use shampoo on
babies and thats what made me first
Man pees himself

while being
arrested
This unfortunate crook may have
picked the worst time to be struck
with an uncontrollable urge to
urinate - right in the middle of
being arrested. Footage shows the
tough guy issuing dire threats
at officers and warning them
he will get them when he gets
out of jail. But unfortunately
for him, the bobbies are too busy
laughing at the fountain of urine
gushing from his trousers to
notice. The man, who is believed
to have been arrested in Camden
in north London, manages a very
impressive waterfall of wee, with
the yellow stuff gushing from
the top of his high pants and low
slung jeans as far as his chin. The
reason for his arrest is not known,
but it is likely urinating in public
will be added to the charge sheet.
He seems oblivious to the fact
he has become a human water
feature, telling coppers how hell
be out in ten years and meanwhile
his family will be banging up all
of those laughing at him. This
has gotta be a first, said the
man filming the incident, before
offering the helpful advice: Give
him a shake!
Appropriately
enough, the hilarious footage was
shared on LiveLeak .
start thinking about it. I have now
gone back to using toilet paper. That
one wasnt really a money saving
thing but more from the perspective
of saving the environment when you
look at how much of the rainforests
we are losing and how there is so
much waste.
northsouth
March 2016
15
cover story
Islamophobia must be eradicated by

putting right what is wrong
ne of the most dangerous

political
developments
in
recent time, closely related to the
war on terror, is the growing
confrontation between the West
and the Muslim world: how much
this is about religious differences
and how much about different
political objectives becomes mired in
sometimes passionate debate.
there are current attempts to
further Christian-Muslim dialogue
on one side of the political divide
between the two faiths, a divide
that is all too easily provoked by
extremists on both sides as politics
and religion are especially prone to
clash.
the concept of the separation of
Church and state came with the
Enlightenment in Europe and, at
least in Britain, increasingly in
16
March 2016
recent years, however, politics and

religion have become intertwined,
and homosexuality, same sex
marriages or abortion, to name the
most controversial issues, provoke
passionate religious and political
responses.
As it appears to some that the
Muslim and Western worlds are
drifting further apart, many are
struggling to understand the
depth of this divide. But there are
those who attribute this difference
to little more than a series of
misunderstandings.
the problem is how to bridge the
divide and dispel misconceptions
and misinterpretations. the issue
has become a global concern and urgently needs to be addressed sensibly and sensitively by rational and
pragmatic thinkers, decision-makers,
religious
scholars,
academics and media representatives.
A meeting of
minds
should
sharpen
the
intellect
and
yield benefit to
all
concerned
and interested.
sources
of
discord
must
be identified so
they are placed
on the agenda
and one must
approach
the
issues with an
open mind and
northsouth
respect for the opinion of others.

the rest is up to the individuals
will to contribute positively to the
debate and come up with consensual
solutions. It sounds simple enough
but the uphill task is how to manage
to have around the same table such
an eminent gathering and what
can be achieved and implemented
afterwards by whom, where and
when.
the first principle to adopt is to
disregard the perception that what
is impossible drives discord and
that the greatest misunderstanding
remains
imaginary
problems
that appear to be larger and more
formidable than they actually are.
some in the Muslim world, for
example, regard Western military
inventions on their soil as a cause
for concern and a reminder of the
Crusades and the era of colonialism.
others argue that the West adopts
double standards with regards to
Israel in relation to the legitimate
rights of Palestinians and Irans
nuclear development. In other
words, there is an international law
that applies to Israel and another
to the rest of the countries in the
Middle East.
Many Westerners view current
events, such as the American
invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan,
strictly in terms of a struggle
against international terrorism
when neither Iraq nor Afghanistan
attacked or waged a terrorist war
against the West.
Muslims are regarded as a
community that preaches violence
and abuses women while sharia
law suffers from widespread

misunderstanding.
As
Lord
Phillips of Worth Matravers, the
Lord Chief Justice in England and
Wales pointed out: Part of the
misconception about Sharia law
is the belief that Sharia is only
about mandating sanctions such as
flogging, stoning, the cutting off of
hands or death for those who fail to
comply with the law. He strongly
backed Dr Rowan Williams, the
former Archbishop of Canterbury
(Head of the Anglican Church), over
his suggestion that aspects of Sharia
law should be adopted in Britain
especially with regards to deciding
financial and marital disputes. What
Lord Philips also stressed is the fact
that it was possible for individuals
voluntarily to conduct their lives in
accordance with Sharia principles
without this being in conflict with
the rights guaranteed by our law.
There is already scope in English
law for some communities to use
their own religious codes to resolve
disputes. Orthodox Jews can use
the Beth Din rabbinical courts to
decide on matters such as divorce.
Jewish in the United Kingdom
have long-established religious
community courts. Chinese have
their own rules governing their
community in the Britain and so do
Hindus. These courts are legally
recognised in English law as a
means for warring parties to agree
to arbitration. The law sees this as
a practical way of helping people
to resolve their differences in their
own way, without clogging up the
local courts.
So why Muslims cannot do so
while the law of the land remains
paramount? Is it because suspicion
of the Muslim community has found
its way into mainstream societies in
Europe?
Indeed, there is deepening distrust
between mainstream society and
the increasingly isolated Muslim
communities in Europe. A culture of
contempt and violence is emerging

on the streets and despite the fact
that the overwhelming majority of
Muslims are law-abiding citizens
they are feared and mistrusted
following the 9/11 attacks on New
York and the suicide bombings in
London, Madrid and Paris. But none
lifts a finger when the bombing is
taking place in Pakistan, Lebanon,
Libya,
Egypt,
Saudi
Arabia,
Indonesia and Tunisia. There is one
media coverage and emphasis for
the West and another for the East.
Since 2001, Muslim families have
suffered many attacks on their
homes and their centres of prayers
or mosques, some of which have
been burnt to the ground. The rise
of anti-Islamic prejudice is there
for everyone to see but no one is
prepared to speak up for Muslims
or stick their neck out in case of
a backlash. What is happening
to Muslims today is exactly what
happened to Jews during the last
century.
The treatment meted out to them
is now being repeated in an ugly and
more vicious manner. Journalists,
writers and politicians who insult
Muslims in Britain, France, the
USA or The Netherlands do so with
impunity and no one bothers to
question their motives, arguing that
this is being done in the name of
free speech. If the same insults were
directed at Jews today, there would
be recriminations of unspeakable
consequences.
Anti-Semitism
is
considered
an evil, obnoxious creed, and
its adherents are barred from
mainstream society and respectable
organs of opinion and rightly so.
How about the same treatment for
anti-Muslims? No chance, it would
seem. Islamophobia, unfortunately,
appears to be here to stay and
more so while the neo-conservatives
are still at the helm in Washington,
London or Paris.
The mistreatment of Muslims
in Europe knows no bounds, yet

these law-abiding citizens had
nothing whatsoever to do with what
happened in the US, Spain, Britain,
Egypt, Lebanon, Pakistan, Morocco,
Tunisia, Algeria, Mali or Nigeria.
They were not the cause of the
spate of terrorist attacks worldwide
where the overwhelming majority
of the innocent victims have been
Muslims.
Genuine Muslims all over the
world, not charlatans or ignorant
extremists, long for the preservation of Muslim values of peace and
compassion and ardently seek to
actively contribute to international
peace and security, while promoting understanding and dialogue
among civilisations, cultures, and
religions. It is the militant extremists of every creed, who shoulder
the greatest responsibility for exacerbating negative perceptions of
various religions.
The atrocities of Christian and
Jewish extremism should be on display alongside those perpetrated by
their Muslim counterparts: from
the Ku Klux Klan to Baruch Goldstein to 9/11, religious fanatics of all
faiths perpetrate violence that aggravates intercultural tensions and
eventually lead to divisions, miscommunication, misinterpretations
and misunderstanding.
Instilling the value of moderation
and tolerance among the current
generation remains paramount
to combating extremism, violence
and terrorism, and countering the
phenomenon of Islamophobia.
The question remains whether
the gap between the Muslim and
Western worlds can be bridged.
Yes, it can, providing there is the
political will to measure the depth
of the divide and work out ways and
means to address it in an objective
and realistic way as well as facing
up to the intellectual challenge of
putting right what is wrong.

Ali Bahaijoub
northsouth
March 2016
17
The roots of Islamophobia
he rise of the Islamic State (IS)

in the Levant has certainly
exacerbated
Islamophobia
in
Europe. Concerned institutions
assert that the phenomenon is
haunting Muslim communities in
Europe. This was made worse by
what happened in Paris last month.
The concern was also detected by the
European Network Against Racism.
In an interview with the Lebanese
newspaper
As-Safir,
chairman
Michael Brifu said that European
Muslims are now feeling a lot of
social pressure to explain what is
happening. This pressure follows
them to work and school, and to
every social environment they are
in.
The issue, however, is no longer
solely confinedto reactions to the
type ofhorrific scenes we see on TV
in the Middle East but now there is
fear of a direct threat to those living
in European under European law.
The anti-Muslims keep voicing
concern over Sharia law being
imposed on their society but in
actual fact Sharia law is not a
written document but a concept by
which some Muslims prefer to abide
by. It is a movement to allow Sharia
to govern personal status law, a
18
March 2016
set of regulations that pertain to

marriage, divorce, inheritance, and
custody.
There are so many varying
interpretations of what Sharia
actually means that in some
places, it can be incorporated into
political systems relatively easily.
Sharias influence on both personal
status law and criminal law is
highly controversial in certain
regions of the world because of its
interpretation and the context in
which it is used.
Sharia law is derived primarily
from the Quran and the Sunna, the
sayings, practices, and teachings of
the Prophet Mohammed.
Sharia developed several hundred
years after the Prophet Mohammeds
death in 632 as the Islamic empire
expanded to the Atlantic Ocean in
North Africa and Spain in the West
and to China in the East. Since the
Prophet Mohammed was considered
the most pious of all believers, his
life and ways became a model for all
other Muslims and were collected
by scholars into what is known as
thehadith. As each locality tried
to reconcile local customs with
Islam, hadith literature grew and
developed into distinct schools of
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Islamic thought: the Sunni school,

the Hanbali school, the Maliki rite,
the Shafii school, the Hanafi school;
and the Shiite school as well as the
Jaafari. Named after the scholars
that inspired them, they differ in the
weight and each applies to the sources
from whichSharia is derived, the
Quran, the Hadith, Islamic scholars,
and consensus of the community.
The Hanbali School, Islams
most orthodox which spawned the
Wahhabi and Salafi branches, that
are embraced in Saudi Arabia and
by the Taliban. The Hanafi school,
known for being the most liberal
and the most focused on reason and
analogy, is dominant among Sunnis
in Central Asia, Egypt, Pakistan,
India, China, Turkey, the Balkans,
and the Caucasus. The Maliki School
is dominant in North Africa and the
Shafii school in Indonesia, Malaysia,
Brunei Darussalam, and Yemen. Shia
Muslims follow the Jaafari School,
most notably in Shia-dominant Iran.
The distinctions have more impact
on the legal systems in each country,
however, than on individual Muslims,
as many do not adhere to one school
in their personal lives.
Marriage and divorce are the
most significant aspects of Sharia,
while criminal law is the most
widely used in almost all Muslim
countries.Extremist groups such as
al-Qaeda offshoots and the Islamic
State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS), have
become notorious for executions as
they apply punishments rarely used
in Islamic history.
The
question
is
whether
contemporary Europe is confronting
a Muslim question similar to the
Jewish question 170 years ago
or whether European antipathy
towards Muslims is similar to that
first stage of hatred towards Jews, a
hatred that culminated in one of the
darkest pages of human history?

Ali Bahaijoub
Debunking Islamophobia
When anyone country is attacked in the name of Islam, the fear of Muslims is a natural
human response, writes Franklin Adesegha
n Paris, the French capital,

extremists struck twice in 2015. It
began with a massacre at the offices
of satirical magazine Charlie hebdo
on 7 January in which 12 people
died and five were critically injured.
the attack ended with a huge police
operation and two sieges two days
later. the second attack took place
in november killing 130 people in
seven coordinated shootings and
explosions. Approximately one
month later, on 3 December, 14
people were killed and 22 seriously
injured in another terrorist attack
at the Inland regional Center in
san Bernardino, California in the
united states. the perpetrators,
syed rizwan Farook and tashfeen
Malik, a married couple, were
behind the attack. In nigeria, Boko
haram is still busy carrying out
suicide bombings. In Libya, IsIs
continues to behead its captives.
suicide bombings in syria and Iraq
have become a norm rather than the
exception.
such acts of brutal violence and
extremism are a great source of
embarrassment to peace loving and
law abiding Muslims. Imam nidal
Alsayyed, leader of the Islamic
Community of East texas, in the
united states, said American
Muslims need to say we are with this
country....We American Muslims
need to be sincere in our religion
and to the country we are living in.
Peace comes before religion.
the likes of Imam Alsayyed
are the role models of Islam as a
religion of peace. there are those
who have suggested that pressure
should be put on mosques, parents
and families to avoid being turned
hotbeds for terror. others have even
gone further to suggest that houses
of prayer that promote hate should
be closed and their troublemakers
deported. It is the opinion of this

writer that no peace loving Muslim
family would want to shelter or
shield any violent extremist. IsIs,
which claims large swaths of Iraq
and syria, is believed to be claiming
recruits from even more secular
homes whose parents and siblings
cannot sit by when a threat is
apparent. there is also the question
of some prisoners who are drawn to
Islam for reasons that have nothing
to do with religion. It is thought
that some Imams who visit prisons
ensnare vulnerable captives, whose
alienation may only increase once
released to a community that is not
so forgiving of their debts to society.
so, how can those who carry
out terror in the name of Islam be
defeated? Dr. Michael Welner, a
leading American researcher on
evil in crime, suggests among other
things, that financial support should
be given to Muslim institutions in
their efforts to root out terrorism
and messianic intolerance from
within communities.
Community
vigilance
is
a necessary part of all law
enforcement. It is incumbent upon
the government to cultivate, within
the Muslim community, the idea, if
you see something, say something,
Dr welner said. Witnesses and a
watchful eye can solve crimes in
ways that forensic science cannot,
he said. Mosques and centers should
be equipped with surveillance

and undercover informants from
outside the community.
the
informants should then cooperate
closely with law enforcement, and
monitor what is happening away
from the naked eye. Mosques and
their peaceful adherents need to be
supported to keep the community
safe, said Dr Welner.
he said that humour is critical
to reaching young people, who are
the future of the conflict and those
whose minds need to be turned
away from extremism. humour
has had enormous impact on the
reform of other religions. From
Catholicism to Mormonism to
Judaism, examples abound of the
impact of humour and arts on the
intolerance of religions. there is
so much to be comical about that is
far more devastating than bullets,
Dr Welner said. the entertainment
industry has to be a partner in the
war against extremists.
Dr Welner suggests an end to
American backdoor investment
in terrorism. Funding hamas
and the Muslim Brotherhood,
while opposing IsIs, is ultimately
ridiculous when the organizations
merge resources in the sinai to
collectively terrorize, Dr Welener
said. he also said that running guns
to al-Qaeda in Libya while bombing
al-Qaeda in Yemen undermines
Americas moral authority. Dr
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March 2016
19
Welner also called for an end to

discrimination
against
Jewish
Arabic speakers by American
intelligence services. American
Jewish refugees, forced to emigrate
from Arab countries decades ago,
are fluent in Arabic, he said, adding
that many have volunteered to help
the war on terror as a demonstration
of national loyalty but that endemic
State Department and CIA antiSemitism precludes use of such

talents,
baselessly
questioning
their loyalties to the United States
because they are Jews.
This irrational hatred prevents
harnessing the linguistic fluency
of those who can materially assist
in interpreting the tremendous
amount of unanalyzed data in
Arabic
and
have
well-honed
vigilance in the face of threat.
Going by Dr Welners research,
there is evidence that extremists
can be defeated if governments
infiltrate recruiting grounds using
undercover agents for intelligence
gathering, and
support peace
loving Muslims in their efforts to
root out extremists.
Donald Trump needs lessons in history
orld leaders from all walks of

life have been brooding over
the reality of the Muslim-West divide
and many no longer consider the gap
bridgeable. The issue has become of
global concern and urgently need to
be addressed sensibly and sensitively
by rational and pragmatic thinkers,
decision-makers, religious scholars,
academics and media representatives.
The
Republican
presidential
candidate Donald Trump does not
seem to grasp his own countrys
history, and how many American
achievements worth celebrating
are the work of the kind of people
he wants to keep out. Morocco,
incidentally, was the first country to
recognise the US at its hour of need.
In 1786, the two countries signed a
treaty of peace and friendship that
is still in effect today, the longest
unbroken treaty of its kind in
history. There numerous exploits
achieved by Muslims in America
in military exploits like Bampett
Muhammad, who fought for the
Virginia Line between the years
1775 and 1783, and Yusuf Ben

Ali, who was of Moroccan origin;
in Engineering: Fazlur Rahman
Khan, The Dhaka-born BangladeshiAmerican known as the Einstein
of structural engineering who
pioneered a new structural system
of frame tubes that revolutionised
the
building
of
skyscrapers
across America; Ayub Ommaya,
neurosurgeon who invented an
intraventricular catheter system
that can be used for the aspiration
of cerebrospinal fluid or the delivery
of drugs; Ahmed Zewail the Nobel
prize winner for Chemistry in 1999,
who became known as the father
of femtochemistry and for doing
pioneering work in the observation
of rapid molecular transformations;
in sport Basketball icons Shaquille
ONeal and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar,
the latter perhaps the greatest NBA
star after Michael Jordan and of
course the world famous of them all
Mohamed Ali. These are only a few
of Muslims who contributed to the
American dream.
After every terror attack the call

rings out for the Muslim world
to become modern and adopt
Enlightenment. But Muslims have
strenuously engaged with all that
is new for hundreds of years and
have endured injustices in Europe
and America to the point of total
marginalisation.
Donald Trumps call for a
ban on Muslims might sound
outrageous but according to a
YouGov poll conducted earlier this
year 55%of surveyed Americans
had an unfavourable opinion of
Islam.
Lookingmore
closelyat
those respondents, Islamophobic
sentiments are more common among
Americans who are 45 and older,
those who are Republican and those
who are white.
Attitudes
towardIslamand
Muslims should be considered
separately but studies suggest
that the two overlap considerably,
as many people fail to distinguish
between the two.
When
Republicans
were
attempting to undermine Barack
Obamas credibility in 2004 and
claim that he could not be trusted,
they said he was a secret Muslim.
What sounded like an accusation
only increased in frequency once
he became a presidential candidate.
As of September 2015, 29% of
Americans (and 43% of Republicans)
still believe that Obama is a Muslim,
according to apollby CNN and the
Opinion Research Corporation.
Donald
Trump

20
March 2016
northsouth
Hostility toward Muslims in

America exists alongside a lack
of familiarity with Muslims and
ignorance of the faith and its
culture. TheYouGov pollthat looked
at unfavourable attitudes also asked
respondents: Do you personally
happen to work with anyone who is
Muslim? 74% said no. The survey
also asked whether respondents
happen to have any friends who
are Muslim 68% said no. Another
87% said they had never been inside
a mosque. Across all religions,

there is acorrelationbetween the
percentage of respondents who
say they know members of a faith,
and the percentage who say they
have favourable attitudes towards
members of that faith.
Muslim Americans are well
aware of negative attitudes towards
them. The last time Pew conducted
asurveythat sought out only
Muslim respondents, in 2011, they
found that negative experiences
were commonplace: 28% said that

in the past year, people had acted
suspiciously of them, 22% said they
had been called offensive names and
21% said they had been singled out
by airport security.
Anti-Jewish racism in Germany
and elsewhere in Europe in the first
half of the 19th century was justified
mainly on cultural and religious
grounds and the same applies today
to Muslims in the US and Europe.

Ali Bahaijoub
Rise of fascist groups in Europe
ast month, the German antiimmigration group PEGIDA

took its anti-Islam message to
Birmingham, England, home to one
of the largest Muslim populations
in Britain. It was the groups
first official march in the United
Kingdom (UK). The protest was one
of 12 planned simultaneously across
Europe especially in Germanys city
of Dresden, as well as in Amsterdam
and Prague. PEGIDA was launched
in Germany in 2014 against what
the groups says is the Islamisation
of Europe and the influx of
migrants from the Middle East
and Africa. PEGIDA UK organiser
Tommy Robinson who was leader
of the English Defence League (an
anti-Muslim group) said there is a
great deal at stake. Some PEGIDA
opponents in Birmingham said they
were disgusted the march even took
place in their city. An anti-fascist
protester, who chose not to disclose
his name, said: I think its an
abomination that they are marching
really. Why a Neo-Nazi group should
be allowed to march and perpetuate
the same hate against the Jewish
community in the 1920s. Many
PEGIDA members say their message
has been distorted by the media,
and that they are simply ordinary
citizens concerned about coping
with an influx of migrant refugees
last year.
Pegida UK supporters staged antiIslam silent march in Birmingham as

their inaugural rally but there was a
low turnout of about 200 protesters
who gathered at an industrial estate
while similar rallies, (14 in all) took
place across Europe where clashes
broke out at twin rallies in France
and the Netherlands.
Many
demonstrators
held
placards featuring Donald Trump,
saying: Trump is right a
possible reference to the Republican
candidate for the US presidential
elections controversialcall for a halt
on Muslim immigrationto the US.
Some Pegida supporters, however,
expressed disappointment at the size
of the low turnout.
Demonstrations
turned
ugly
in both Calais, in France, and
Amsterdam. French police fired
tear gas after about 150 antimigrant protesters defied a ban and
rallied in support of the Europewide Pegida movement, while in
Amsterdam, a square near the city

hall that had been earmarked for
the demonstration had to be shut
down shortly before the gathering
as Dutch police indicated there was
a suspect package.
Only about 200 Pegida supporters
were present in the Dutch city,
outnumbered by police and leftwing
demonstrators
who
shouted:
Refugees are welcome, fascists
are not. Dutch riot police detained
several people as officers on
horseback intervened to separate the
two groups.
Dozens of riot police kept the
Pegida supporters away from antifascist activists who turned up to
oppose the groups message.
Tommy
Robinson,
former
spokesman and leader of theEnglish
Defence League and founder of
Pegida UK in January this year,
announced that the group would
stage further demonstrations in
Birmingham on the first Saturday
Anti-Muslim protest in Dresden
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March 2016
21
Bachmann
of every month starting in April.

The official leader of Pegida
UK is former UK Independence
Party (UKIP) failed parliamentary
candidate Paul Weston, who said
that he wanted to get 100,000 people
out on the streets by the end of the
year.
Pegida is a German right-wing
anti-Islam political organisation
founded in Dresden in October 2014.
Pegida has been organising weekly
demonstrations against what it
considers the Islamisation of the
Western world.The founder of the
group, Lutz Bachmann, who helped
organise weekly anti-Immigration
protests in Dresden, will face
prosecutors in court on 19 April
after calling foreigners cattle and
trash on facebook.
He has been reinstated as
the head of Germanys antiIslamisation movement Pegida, a
month afterresigning over a photo
showing him posing with a Hitler
moustache.
The photo of Bachmann went viral
after it was published by a local

newspaper, the
Dresden
Morgenpost. A Morgenpost reader
discovered the
photograph,
along with what
appeared to be a
closed Facebook
conversation between Bachmann
and one of his Facebook contacts, in
which he described immigrants as
cattle, scumbags and trash.
The leadership of the group
has been dogged by infighting as
the controversy over the Hitler
photo and Bachmanns Facebook
comments was seen as particularly
damaging.
Bachmanns
resignation
in
January 2015 was followed by
an exodus of leading members,
apparently in an attempt to distance
themselves from openly racist
supporters. The most prominent
departure was that of Kathrin Oertel,
who split from the groupto found a
new rightwing organisation called
Direkte Demokratie fr Europa, or
Direct Democracy for Europe.
Bachmann, who carries convictions
for drug possession, assault and
burglary, has continued to speak at
Pegida protest marches in Dresden.
Pegida has welcomed its latest recruit,
Tatjana Festerling, a former member
of
the
eurosceptic
Alternative
forGermanyparty who attracted

criticism last year for praising the
Hooligans Against Salafists demo in
Cologne. Bachmann said Festerling
would almost certainly be the groups
new spokeswoman.
The European Monitoring Centre
on Racism and Xenophobia (EUMC)
said there had been a big rise in
attacks - including physical assaults
- on Muslims in Britain since
the US terror attacks. The main
problem appeared to be bullying
and harassment - particularly
in the workplace and in schools.
Employment cases ranged from
passing comments by employers, to
cases of dismissal in which Islamic
harassment had been cited. This is
the result of a knock-on effect
caused by damaging comments
from politicians, the media and
public figures such as teachers
in the immediate aftermath of the
attacks. The EU report said police,
politicians, media and public
figures had on the whole tried to
prevent attacks on Muslim targets
and reduce the sense of threat felt
by the Muslim community. But
Muslim groups have said politicians
are still causing problems with
insensitive comments.
Islamophobia existed in Europe
before the terrorist attacks of 11
September 2001, but it has increased
in frequency and notoriety ever
since.
Alan Brown
Is Islam going through a crisis?
Islam is a worldwide religion that has recently become the centre of global attention and a
focus of debate, argues Ali Bahaijoub
slam has existed for 14 centuries

and has about 1.5 billion followers
globally not to mention being the
fastest growing religion in the
world.
Some may not wonder whether
Islam is enduring a struggle
within, while others believe there is
22
March 2016
a crisis intrinsic to the Muslim faith

but have not reached a satisfactory
conclusion nor are they able to come
up with rational and pragmatic
answers.
There are also those who argue
that political Islam is experiencing
a revival reminiscent of the Iranian
northsouth
revolution of 1979 when the Shah

of Iran was toppled by Ayatollah
Khomeini. Some Western thinkers
believe strongly that Islam is in need
of reformation and modernisation
and that this is the time to go about
doing it. But they fail to say where
and how to go about it.

Obama with American Muslims
Few converts to Islam, unaware of

the genuine values of the religion,
become overzealous and adopt the
new faith as a form of racial and
ethnic self-expression rather than
a religion with a universal appeal.
They tend to take every opportunity
to assert their Muslimness as a
new cherished identity either in
dress, appearance or behaviour.
Suicide bombing has generated
unprecedented debate about how
people can blow themselves up
for whatever cause they believe
in, despite the fact that it is
forbidden by the Islamic religion.
The Japanese Kamikaze Pilots did
it during the Second World War
and some Palestinians have done
it out of desperation, despondency
or frustration and to draw world
attention to their plight and
injustice.
The new phenomenon has been
attributed to Moslem extremists
who defy Islamic teaching and
principles and resort to it as a means
to an end. Suicide in any shape or
form is un-Islamic, unlawful and
forbidden (haram). It simply has no
room in any Islamic context, values
or tenets.
Radical preachers and often
ignorant charlatans try to drive a
wedge between a Muslims faith and
society. These are often ignorant
self-proclaimed Imams (anyone
can be an Imam to lead prayers) or
attention seekers bent on teaching
and
influencing
youngsters
susceptible to new approaches and
philosophies. Young Muslims minds
are being instilled with distorted
ideas, perceptions and doctrines
that have nothing to do with the
true principles of Islam. They must
be challenged and exposed because
they give a distorted image to the
true teaching of Islamic principles
and, most importantly, they falsely
and deliberately quote the Quran as
evidence.
The current problems related to
terrorism, radicalism, extremism

and dogma, need a new strategy
based crucially on dialogue between
nations, direct contact, exchange or
information sharing and a concerted
action to weed out those who are bent
on destroying societies for the sake
of their crazy supposedly religious
ideals that have nothing to do with
the true meaning of religion.
Negative
stereotypes,
misinterpretations
and
misconceptions currently prevail
due to the tragic state of affairs in
the Islamic world cemented by the
9/11 attacks, which made Islam a
focal point of contemporary politics
and Western media.
The reason for the vehemence
of Muslim reaction worldwide to
Islamophobia stems, to a large
extent, from the way the United
States went about with its global
war on terror perceived by some
Muslims as a modern crusade
against Islam.
Muslims have a good and
peaceful faith that has recently
been hijacked by extremists and
should be perceived as such rather
than as a violent religion aimed at
Westerners way of life or faiths.
Violence cannot be justified
in
any
religion
and
when
fundamentalism is gaining ground
across the religious spectrum this
should be nipped in the bud. Our

societies are too interdependent
for relations between peoples to
be based on anything other than
liberty, tolerance, understanding,
respect for the dignity of everyone,
and dialogue between all cultures.
The underlying sense of Western
triumphalism and paternalism
must be avoided and so must the
portrayal of Western values as
somewhat better or superior to
those of the rest of the world. We,
Muslims and non-Muslims, must
combat
ignorance,
prejudice,
violence and injustice that deepen
distrust between peoples and
cultures.
Those who invoke religion to
justify violent acts must be strongly
condemned and the amalgam that is
sometimes made between Islam and
terrorism must be rejected. From
time immemorial the Abrahamic
Faiths of Islam, Christianity
and Judaism have, for centuries
believed in the same God and have
interacted, co-existed and enriched
each other with shared values,
principles and knowledge.
Their ethnic, religious and
cultural diversity represent a
greater wealth and strength for all
societies to co-exist, listen and learn
from one another for the well-being
and prosperity of mankind.
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March 2016
23
The rise and rise of Islamophobia in Europe
slamophobia in Europe is a
complex and multi-dimensional
phenomenon. An octopus able to
circumvent political forces, parties,
associations, groups of ordinary
citizens, both right and left-wing.
In the current political and social
climate in Europe where a larger
and more visible Muslim presence
is causing a backlash they face
strong opposition and alienation
and even marginalisation. Not only
is mainstream Europe looking
more fearful of Muslims, but young
Muslims with higher expectations
and hope for belonging are growing
more restless and despondent.
Values of national identity and
patriotism are starting to take shape
over an older argument in Europe
about tolerance, plurality, freedom
of expression.
9/11 events have definitely paved
the way for those who were looking
for a pretext of interpretation of the
world that simplified and separated
the good from the bad, the West
from the East. Thetheory of the
clash of civilizations, formulated
bySamuel Huntingtonin 1996and
popularized by neo-conservatives,
researchers,
journalists
and
columnists, has become the common
heritage of a very broad and diverse
audience in Europe.
24
March 2016
According to these scaremongering

so-called intellectuals ignorant of
the valuable contribution of Islam
to Europe, the Muslims who live in
Europe would constitute a threat to
the values and traditions of the Old
Continent, namely its identity and
even its security.
AndersBreivik was responsible
for the massacre of 77 people in
2011 after detonating a bomb in
downtown Oslo, capital of Norway,
and carrying out a mass shooting
on Utoya Island. He carried out
his heinous crime against innocent
youngsters who opposed prejudice
in whatever shape or form. The
victims lost their lives just because
the perpetrator of the massacre
considered them guilty of fighting
against those exact prejudices, and
in favour of a multicultural, open
and inclusive society.
Switzerlandpassed
a
referendum to ban minarets on
mosques.Belgiumand France have
prohibited the burqa, or full-length
veil worn by Muslim women.
In Italy Islamophobia is not
the exclusive prerogative of the
Northern League and extreme
right parties:I love Italy, the
partyfounded
and
chairedby
journalistMagdi Cristiano Allam,
has made Islamophobia one of the
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key points of his programme.

Inthe
Netherlands
whose
second-largest city,Rotterdam, has
a majority population of ethnic
minorities made the party of
anti-Islam political figureGeert
Wildersthe third largest in Dutch
politics. Wilderss platform calls
for banning the Koran and new
mosques, taxing head scarves, and
ending immigration from Muslim
countries.
In Sweden, an arsonist set fire
to a mosque in central Sweden
last month injuring five people,
according to police reports, as the
country grapples with a political
crisis caused by the rise of the
extreme right. Refugee-friendly
Sweden woke up to the reality
of a new political landscape in
early December when the antiimmigration Sweden Democrats
brought down the government by
refusing to back its budget proposal
in parliament.
In Austria, in a barbaric affront
to Muslim sensibilities, part of a
pigs head and some pork tripe was
attached to the door of a mosque in
Viennas 21st district on Christmas
day.
The head of the Turkish-Islamist
Union in Vienna (ATIB), Fatih
Karada, condemned the attack
saying that this is not an attack
against Muslims but the whole of
humanity. We, as Muslims, will
preserve our calm and collective
attitude.
This is not the first incident of its
kind, as Austrias Muslim community
has been attacked several times last
year in similar hate crimes. An
Imam Hatip school in Vienna that
concentrates on religious education
was also vandalized. A pigs head
was left in front of the schools door
during Ramadan. In August, apigs
head was impaled on a fenceat a
construction site for a new Islamic

school. It is not known who left
the pigs head at the centre, but
even if someone confesses there is
little the police can do as nothing
was damaged and therefore there
are no criminal charges. The
planned school has been unpopular
in Austria, withForeign and
Integration Minister Sebastian Kurz
saying the idea is completely the
wrong approach. Another mosque
called Eyp Sultan, located in
the town of Telfs, was repeatedly
vandalized with graffiti.
In one of the more serious
incidents, anelderly Muslim woman
was attacked in a bank, apparently
the victim of a hate crime motivated
by religious intolerance.
In September, aMuslim woman
was attacked by another woman
on a train, apparently because the
former was wearing a headscarf.
In Augusttwo elderly Muslim
ladies wearing headscarveswere
attacked
in
Favoritenstrae.
Police were reportedly slow to
respond to this incident, and only
began questioning suspects days
after. Austrias Islamic Religious
Community
Association
said
that Muslims often experience
discrimination in Austria but that
it is not well documented.
Spokeswoman
Carla
Amina
Baghajati said that the association
plans to start collecting data on all
religiously motivated incidents.
However, she said she did not believe
that the police lacked sensitivity to
the issue.
The mosque is located on the
ground floor of a building in the city
of Eskilstuna, some 90 kilometres
(55 miles) west of Stockholm. The
five injured were taken to hospital
to be treated for injuries including
smoke inhalation, lacerations and
fractures.
In
January
unidentified
perpetrators daubed black swastikas
on the front door of a Stockholm
mosque and in December last year
neo-Nazis attacked a peaceful
anti-racist protest in a Stockholm

suburb, causing three people to be
hospitalised.
Such politics has engendered
Muslim antipathy in parts of both
the right and the left. Over the
past five years, Islamophobia
has become more mainstream and
more comfortably settled. Social
politeness and taboos on talking
about Islam are eroding at a time
when Europeans arent exactly sure
what they think about Islam.
Racism is the lowest form of
human stupidity, but Islamophobia
is the height of common sense, is
the motto of a Danish group called
Stop Islamization of Europe,
which somewhat typifies a broader
sentiment.
After 9/11, a small industry of
literature, much of it produced
in the US, predicted a coming
Eurabia a tsunami of Islam that
will make Europe unrecognizable,
where Muslim birthrates overwhelm
older populations, mosques are as
plentiful asMcDonaldsrestaurants,
and Islamic sharia law supplants
European
constitutions.
Justin
Vasse, an analyst at theBrookings
InstitutioninWashington, argues
that actual data about Muslim
birth rates in Europe (which are
declining as Muslims assimilate
and have smaller families) and
immigration (500,000 a year) belie
the dire projections of the Continent
becoming Eurabia.
The paradox of this genre is that
it dwells on the heated controversies
and tensions taking place in Europe
while at the same time claiming
that Europeans are in denial of
their problems, says Mr. Vasse,
co-author of Integrating Islam:
Political and Religious Challenges
in Contemporary France. And the
emphasis on the anecdotal tends
to obscure the fact that, from the
fight over minarets in Switzerland
to the debate over head scarves in
France, current tensions are part of
a normal and democratic process of
adjustment, not the first signs of an

impending catastrophe.
Often absent are views of Muslims
themselves. Much of the discussion
aimed at Islam takes place as if the
Muslims were not in the room. Scant
attention is paid to vast religious and
cultural differences between groups.
French Muslims tend to be from Arab
and African states, British Muslims
fromSouth Asia, Dutch Muslims
fromMoroccoandIndonesia,
German Muslims from Turkey.
Muslims, interviewed at mosques,
offices, and cafes in Paris and
London, say they often do not
recognize common depictions of
themselves. They resent the fact that
Islam is a subject of derision and
reject the stereotype of Muslims as
being one uniform, slightly sinister
group.
Muslims concerns in Europe
are not about spreading the faith,
but
housing,
education,
and
neighbourhood
safety.
Young
second-generation Muslims have
high expectations but often feel
excluded.
A recent French government study
found that job applicants with Arab
Muslim names had less than half the
chance of getting an interview than
applicants with French names.
Europe is a place of liberty for
Muslims, many of whom have
escaped repressive states. Some
come to escape orthodox Islam while
still being devout. More Muslim
women find Europe a harbour to
challenge older cultural models of
Islam that restrict their freedoms.
Muslims agree that some younger
adherents get radicalized. But others
are eager to integrate. They want to
be European, or French, or Dutch
or British.
University students
are among Muslim moderates
aspiring for better life, prosperity
and security. They want to have a
job, integrate, respect others and
live in a cohesive society under the
protection of the law of the land.

Ali Bahaijoub
northsouth
March 2016
25
What is Sharia Law?
haria law is not a written law. It

is merely a code of conduct that
Muslims may turn to for guidance
to their daily life including family
law, finance and business disputes,
prayers, fasting and donations to
the poor. It aims to help Muslims
understand how they should lead
every aspect of their lives according
to Gods wishes.
sharia law covers a lot of very
mundane and banal daily issues
where observant Muslims want to
ensure they act within the legal
framework of their faith.
Like any legal system, sharia is
complex and its practice is entirely
reliant on the quality and training
of experts.
there are different schools of
thought, which consequently lead to
26
March 2016
different rulings.
scholars spend decades studying
the law and, as with Western law, an
expert on one aspect of sharia is by
no means the authority on another.
there are five different schools
of sharia law. there are four sunni
doctrines: hanbali, Maliki, shafii
and hanafi, and one shia doctrine,
shia Jaafari.
the five doctrines differ in how
literally they interpret the texts
from which sharia law is derived.
Muslims say the Western world
misrepresents sharia by focusing
on beheadings in saudi Arabia and
other gruesome punishments. the
equivalent, they say, would be a
debate about the history of Western
law focused on Americas electric
chair.
northsouth
some modern Muslim scholars

say that while sharia includes
provisions for capital and corporal
punishment, getting to that stage is
in fact quite difficult.
the
Muslim
thinker,
tariq
ramadan, professor of Islamic
studies at oxford university, has
called for a moratorium on these
penalties in the Muslim world.
he argues that the conditions
under which such penalties would
be legal are almost impossible to reestablish in todays world.
In short, the key issues are
family law, finance and business. In
practice many Muslims do turn to
sharia guidance for many of these
day-to-day matters, particularly
family disputes.
Ali Bahaijoub
features
French, US and UK forces waging
secret war in Libya: report
25/2/16- An air raid by US Special
Forces last month on Sabratha killed
more than 50 people including
two Serbian embassy employees
abducted last November, according
to Serbias prime minister.
American officials said the site in
Sabratha, western Libya, was used
by up to 60 militants, including
Tunisian Noureddine Chouchane,
blamed for two attacks on tourists
in Tunisia last year in which dozens
were killed.
However, there are no international
plans to send combat ground troops
into Libya. Western governments
are wary of large-scale military
intervention but fear inaction may
allow Islamic State fighters take
hold of swathe of the vast Libyan
territory.
French
Special
Forces
and
intelligence
commandos
are
engaged in covert operations
against Islamic State militants
in Libya in conjunction with the
United States and the United
Kingdom, the French newspaper
Le Monde revealed last month. It
said President Francois Hollande
had authorized unofficial military
action by both an elite armed forces
27
March 2016
unit and the covert action service

of the DGSE intelligence agency in
the North African country. What Le
Monde called Frances secret war in
Libya involved occasional targeted
strikes against leaders of the ultraradical Islamist group, prepared by
discreet action on the ground, to
try to slow its growth in Libya. The
French defence ministry declined
comment on the substance of the
dailys story but a source close to
Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian
said he had ordered an investigation
into breaches of national defence
secrecy to identify the sources of
the report.
The
French
military
group in Benghazi are just
militaryadviserswho
provide
consultations to the Libyan National
Army in its battle against terrorism,
but they are not fighting with our
Libyan forces, Special Forces
commander Wanis Bukhamada told
Reuters.
Francois Hollande said that France
was at war with Islamic State after
it claimed responsibility for a wave
of attacks on bars, restaurants, a
concert hall and the national soccer
stadium in Paris on Nov. 13 last year,
northsouth
killing 130 people. The ministry

has previously confirmed that
French aircraft recently conducted
reconnaissance flights over Libya,
where France took a leading role
in a 2011 NATO air campaign that
helped rebels overthrow Muammar
Gaddafis autocratic rule. It has also
confirmed that France has set up an
advance military base in northern
Niger on the border with Libya.
Le Monde said French intelligence
had initiated a previous strike last
November that killed an Iraqi known
by the nom de guerre Abu Nabil who
was the senior Islamic State leader
in Libya at the time.
Five
years
after
Muammar
Gaddafis overthrow and death, Libya
is still caught in a bloody civil war
between two rival governments, one
in the capital Tripoli and the other in
Benghazi in the east. Each is backed
by competing alliances of former
rebel brigades whose loyalties are
often more to tribe, region or local
commander.
Forces from the port city of
Misrata - one of the most powerful
military factions - have been on
the front line of the battle against
Islamic State since it took over Sirte
a year ago and drew more foreign
fighters to its ranks there.
Islamic State militants are also
fighting in Benghazi to the east,
shelling the oil ports of Ras Lanuf
and Es Sider. Libyas oil facilities
are likely to suffer further attacks
unless a United Nations-backed
unity government is approved,
Mustafa Sanalla, head of the
National Oil Corporation (NOC) told
Reuters in an interview.
As Islamic State has expanded

in Libya, taking over the city
of Sirte and attacking oil ports,
calls have increased for a swift
Western response to stop the group
establishing a base outside its Iraq
and Syria territory.
The renewed Western focus on
combating Islamic State fighters
is related to the 13 November 2015
Paris attacks although they had
nothing to do with Libya and
the increasing recognition that
the UN-brokered Libyan Political

Agreement signed on 17 December
in Skhirat, Morocco, remains for the
time being at least, not implemented.
Therefore, the absence of a national
unity government able to take on
the Islamic State is not yet an option.
But the urge to act, or to be seen
acting, against the Islamic State
should not be a reason to embark on
a new large-scale military adventure
in Libya one that would have
unpredictable results and likely
worsen the situation on the ground

by making the Libyan conflict
harder to resolve.
A unity government is trying to
win approval from Libyas internationally recognized parliament in
eastern Libya, known as the House
of Representatives (HOR). But the
government remains plagued by
divisions and has faced opposition
from hardliners on both sides of Libyas political divide.

Ali Bahaijoub
Yemen: is peace possible?
early a year on, there is no end

in sight to Yemens war. The
conflict pits Ansar Allah (Huthi)
rebels and military units allied with
ex-President Ali Abdullah Saleh
against a diverse mix of opponents,
including what remains of the
government of President AbedRabbo Mansour Hadi, backed by
a Saudi-led coalition supported by
the US, the United Kingdom and
France. Ending the war requires
negotiations leading to an interim
settlement that must include
security arrangements providing
for militia withdrawal from cities,
a return to the political process
pursuant to UN Security Council
Resolution 2216 and agreement
on a transitional leadership. While
these are matters for Yemeni parties
to decide during UN-sponsored
negotiations, Saudi Arabias buyin will be essential, spooked as the
kingdom is by what it perceives as
an Iranian hand behind the Huthis
and their attacks on Saudi territory.
Reaching agreement will take time,
a luxury Yemenis do not have. The
immediate priority thus should be
to secure agreement on delivering
humanitarian aid and commercial
goods to war-torn, besieged areas.
The descent into civil war has
its roots in a post-2011 political
transition that was overtaken by
old-regime elite infighting, highlevel corruption and inability of the

National Dialogue Conference (a
cornerstone of the 2011 transition
roadmap) to produce consensus on
power sharing and state structure,
especially the status of south Yemen,
where desire for independence is
strong. The Huthis, a Zaydi (Shia)
revivalist movement turned militia,
thrived by framing itself as an
uncorrupted outsider. They struck
an opportunistic alliance with their
old enemy, Saleh, against common
domestic foes, including the Sunni
Islamist party, Islah, the powerful
Ahmar family and General Ali
Mohsen al-Ahmar (no relation to
the family), all of whom had turned
against Saleh during the 2011
uprising. When the Huthis captured
Sanaa, on a wave of popular
resentment
against
the
Hadi
government in September 2014, a
majority of Yemenis were already

disillusioned with the transition.
Yet, the Huthis overstretched: trying
to forcibly expand their writ over the
entire country, they alienated new
supporters and confirmed critics
worst fears.
In March 2015, the internal power
struggle was eclipsed and reshaped
by a Saudi-led military intervention.
Saudi Arabia views the Huthis as
part of an expanding Iranian threat
in the region. Under the leadership
of King Salman and his son
Mohammed bin Salman, the defence
minister and deputy crown prince, it
decided to attempt to reverse Irans
perceived gains by pushing back
the Huthis and reinstating the Hadi
government. It rallied a coalition
of nine mostly Sunni Arab states,
the United Arab Emirates (UAE)
prime among these. The U.S., UK
and France have lent support to the
northsouth
March 2016
28
war effort, even as they harbour

reservations regarding the conflicts
necessity and are concerned about
its possible duration and unintended
consequences,
particularly
the
near-catastrophic
humanitarian
crisis (bordering on famine) and
uncontrolled spread of violent
jihadi groups such as the Yemeni
franchises of al-Qaeda and the
Islamic State (IS).
The intervention has layered
a multidimensional, thus more
intractable,
regional
conflict
between Saudi Arabia and Iran
onto an already complex civil war,
significantly complicating prospects
for peace. It has also solidified
opposing domestic fronts that have
little in common with their position
on the Saudi-led military campaign.
On one side, the Huthis and Saleh
have wrought a tactical alliance,
despite their mutual distrust,
against what they view as an
existential threat. On the other, the
anti-Huthi bloc is even more diverse,
bringing together a range of Sunni
Islamists, (mostly secular) southern
separatists and tribally/regionally
based fighters who reject Huthi/
Saleh dominance but have radically
different visions for the future of
Yemen.
After nearly a year of combat, no
side is close to a decisive military
victory. Huthi/Saleh fighters are
ensconced in the Zaydi northern
highlands, while the Saudi-led
coalition and its Yemeni allies are

strongest in Shafei (Sunni) areas in
the south and east. As the latter have
pushed the Huthi/Saleh front out
of southern territories, where they
were largely viewed as northern
invaders, a range of armed groups,
including al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula (AQAP) and southern
separatists, have moved in to take
their place. If the Saudi-led coalition
succeeds in capturing additional
territory in the north, which it
appears determined to do, the result
is likely to be a protracted, bloody
battle producing additional chaos
and fragmentation. For its part,
the Huthi/Saleh bloc is significantly
complicating peace prospects by
increasing cross-border attacks into
Saudi Arabia, a move that makes
it more difficult for the kingdom
to halt the conflict when it cannot
boast a clear military victory.
Each sides commitment to UN-led
peace talks is lukewarm. Neither is
defeated or exhausted; both believe
they can make additional military
gains; and neither has been willing
to make the compromises required
to end the violence. The structure
of talks, too, is problematic, with
Saudi Arabia, a core belligerent,
conspicuously absent. Prospects
for a ceasefire and productive
Yemeni talks would be helped by
direct
high-level
consultations
between the Huthi/Saleh bloc and
Saudi Arabia over sensitive issues
such as the border and the Huthis

relationship with Iran. Moreover, to
succeed, UN-led negotiations must
be made more inclusive, expanding
as soon as possible beyond the
Yemeni government and Huthi/
Saleh delegations to incorporate
other Yemeni stakeholders.
The immediate future looks bleak.
The war has devastated an already
weak infrastructure, opened vast
opportunities for AQAP and IS to
expand and widened intra-Yemeni
political, regional and confessional
divides. The UN estimates that at
least 6,000 people have been killed,
including over 2,800 civilians, the
majority by Saudi-led airstrikes.
Even if the UN can broker an
agreement to end major combat,
the road to lasting peace will be
long and difficult. The country is
broken to a degree that requires
significant time, resources and
new
political
agreements
to
overcome. Without a breakthrough,
it will continue descent into
state disintegration, territorial
fragmentation
and
sectarian
violence. That trajectory would
have
calamitous
consequences
for
Yemens
population
and
severely undermine Gulf security,
particularly Saudi Arabias, by
fomenting a new refugee crisis and
feeding radicalisation in the region
to the benefit of violent jihadi
groups.

Crisis Group
100,000 migrant arrivals and 450

deaths in EU and crisis unresolved
n estimated 100,000 migrants

or refugees have crossed into
Greece since the beginning of 2016.
Of these 62,193 arrived in January,
according to the International
Organisation for Migration (IOM).
In 2015, 1,046,599 migrants,
including asylum seekers are
29
March 2016
reported to have arrived to

Europe by land and sea routes, of
which1,011,712 arrived by sea.
While migrants are continuing to
arrive in Greece, February arrivals
have declined by 36 per centfrom
the first half of January. The highest
daily total was on 3 February (3,036)
northsouth
andthe lowest on 6 February (7).

However, Austria and nine Balkan
states have agreed on several
measures to choke off the flow of
refugees from Greece, effectively
imposing their own response to the
migrant crisis while the European
Union has been paralyzed over what
to do. The moves, by the foreign and

interior ministers of the 10 countries,
come amid Europes preparations
for another surge in people fleeing
war and poverty in the Middle East
and beyond as winter wanes and the
weather turns warmer.
he practical effect of the steps
they agreed on during a meeting in
Vienna on Wednesday will probably
be to keep more of the migrants in
Greece, the primary point of entry
into the European Union for people
coming from Afghanistan, Iraq,
Syria and other troubled countries.
Among the measures was an
agreement to grant entry to the 10
countries only to those in proven
need of protection, which would
essentially limit passage to Iraqis
and Syrians and exclude Afghans
and people from countries where the
main problems are economic.
While international groups track
numbers of migrants who drown
crossing the Mediterranean to
Europe, no one knows how many
people die in the Sahara.
Europol says people smuggling
may have generated between $3
billion and $6 billion last year.
Most of the money is raised and
transferred by family members of
migrants and refugees abroad. More
migrants trying to reach Germany
will be stuck in limbo in Greece as
gateways into Europe are narrowing
markedly.
Hungary will hold a referendum on
European Union plans for a system of
mandatory quotas, an initiative that
Hungarys government has rejected,
Prime Minister Viktor Orban said.
Orban has used harsh anti-migrant
rhetoric since the migrant crisis
escalated last year and gained
notoriety for erecting a steel fence
along Hungarys southern border
to keep out migrants - a policy now
adopted by other Balkan countries.
He said the plebiscite, the first of its
kind in Europe, would be a major test
of European democracy. He also said
the migrant quotas would redraw

the ethnic, cultural and religious
map of Hungary and Europe.
Austria has warned that the EUs
own future is now at stake over the
refugee crisis.
Meanwhile, important progress
was made at the donors conference
for Syrian refugees convened in
London on 4 February. But much
more remains to be done. The
international community is still
vastly underestimating what is
needed to support refugees, both
inside and outside the borders of the
European Union.
The United Kingdom, Germany,
Kuwait, Norway, and the United
Nations co-hosted the conference
to raise significant new funding to
meet the immediate and longer-term
needs of those affected.
The conference raised over $11
billion in pledges $5.8 billion for
2016 and a further $5.4 billion for
2017-20 to enable partners to plan
ahead.
Syria is the worlds biggest
humanitarian crisis and billions
of dollars in international aid are
needed to support people caught up
in the conflict.
The European Commission has
given Greece 12.7 million Euros
to provide reception facilities for
thousands of refugees and migrants
arriving from Turkey by sea.
Meanwhile, NATO has initiated
plans to stop migrant flows in the
Aegean by deploying ships and will
try to identify and capture human
smugglers.
Reasons for migrating to Europe

vary and individual stories are
unique. Many migrants do however
follow similar routes, and some of
their journeys are facilitated illegally
for profit.
The illegal and often abusive
treatment of migrant workers is one
of the most pressing reputational
risks for global corporations,
according to the report The Human
Rights Outlook 2016, released by
risk advisory firm Verisk Maplecroft.
The report analyses the 10 most
significant human rights issues
impacting business and has identified
the recruitment of migrants and
refugees into forced labour; a lack
of information on labour practices
deep within the supply chain; and
inadequate oversight of suppliers
among the biggest threats to the
brand reputation of global companies
over the next year.
The report draws on the companys
portfolio of global human rights
data and its ongoing engagements
with multinational business and
international stakeholders. It also
identifies the primary emerging
risk areas for companies with global
supply chains and provides strategic
insight into the human rights
landscape to raise awareness of
responsible procurement practices.
It is rare for multinationals to
employ illegal migrants directly, but
claiming ignorance about abusive
practices in their supply chains is no
longer a defence, says the report.
The notion that the worlds
largest corporations are profiting
northsouth
March 2016
30
from abusive labour practices is,

regrettably, not new. A report by
the International Trade Union
Confederation
(ITUC)
recently
estimated that the worlds 50 largest
companies indirectly employ 116
million hidden undocumented
workers equivalent to 94% of
all the workers connected to their
business. Under international norms
such as the UN Guiding Principles
on Business and Human Rights,
companies are expected to undertake
due diligence on their supply chains
but few do.
The only long-term solution
is to tackle the issue at source
and this means stamping out the
unscrupulous recruitment agencies
that oversee the so-called migrant
corridors feeding global demand
for cheap foreign labour. According
to
the
International
Labour
Organizations private employment
convention recruitment fees should
be met by employers, not workers.

Not only does such an approach
protect workers, but it should also
drive criminality out of the system:
fees would normalise, selection
processes would closer reflect
business needs and expectations of
both employer and employee would
be better understood from the start.
with the exception of the Electronic
Industry
Citizenship
Coalition
(EICC), which recently changed
its code of conduct to prohibit the
payment of recruitment fees by
workers, it is about time other
global companies follow suit partly
because banning fee payments, it
prohibits abusive practices such as
withholding workers passports and
placing unreasonable restrictions on
their movements. Migrant workers
must also be provided with a written
employment agreement in their
native language prior to departing
from their country of origin.
For
2014,
the
Internal
Displacement Monitoring Center
(IDMC) reported that
57.3 million People around the
world have been forced to flee their
homes by armed conflict, generalised
violence and natural disasters, while
staying within their countries. In
2014 UNHCR reported that 14.4
million refugees fled their country of
origin to other country.
Jordan could provide a test case.
A country of 9.5 million people, it
is providing refuge to three million
non-citizens, including 1.3 million
Syrians, and facing the influx of
additional Syrians uprooted by
ongoing bombing.
The
unprecedented
rise
in
migration from the Middle East and
Africa to Europe is set to continue
for the foreseeable future and the
refugees crisis will undoubtedly
test the cohesion of the European
Union.
Ali Bahaijoub
Russia and the separatists

in Eastern Ukraine
D
espite repeated expressions of
support for the Minsk process
and
recognition
of
Ukraines
sovereignty over the separatist
Donetsk and Luhansk Peoples
Republics (DNR, LNR), Moscows
policy in Ukraines east looks more
likely to strengthen those entities
than prepare for the dismantlement
the Minsk agreement envisages. The
Kremlin views Ukraines European
choice as a major security threat
and the 2014 overthrow of President
Viktor Yanukovych as Westernbacked and aimed at isolating Russia.
It wants to keep Ukraine under its
pro-Western leadership unstable,
embroiled in open-ended military
confrontation it cannot afford, so as
to return it eventually to its sphere
of influence. Moscow often seems
to play with several options, but its
tactical fluidity is dangerous. Almost
31
March 2016
10,000 have died in the conflict, and

tens of thousands of troops face
each other along a 500-km line of
separation. While recognising the
risk of the Minsk process becoming
a substitute for settlement, the
international community should
urge Russia to show its commitment
to that process and remind it that
sanctions will remain until Minsk is
fully implemented.
The ceasefire in the east has
largely held since 1 September,
casualties are down, and all
sides express determination to
implement the Minsk agreement.
Few Minsk provisions have been
fully implemented however, and
the timetable for completion has
been extended into 2016. This gives
Moscow further opportunities to
concentrate the parties more on
process than a settlement.
northsouth
After showing little interest in

building political institutions in
the DNR and LNR or enthusiasm
for funding social policies, Moscow
has begun in the past four or five
months to bankroll pensions, social
benefits and salaries to local officials
and the separatist military forces.
If consistently maintained, this
will cost it over $1 billion a year, a
substantial sum for the Russian
treasury in straitened economic
times.
Some observers in Donetsk
are persuaded the measures are
increasingly clear signs Moscow
has decided to transform the crisis
into a frozen conflict, a scenario
international participants in the
peace talks have long feared.
Though a protracted conflict in
eastern Ukraine would be very
different from those in Abkhazia,
South Ossetia or Transnistria, it

would have the advantage for Russia
of pushing the issue further off the
international agenda.
Rather more persuasively, some
seasoned observers of Moscows
tactics in the east, including senior
separatist officials, suggest that the
Kremlin is probably considering
several options, from freezing the
conflict while keeping Minsk alive, to
dropping the entities at a convenient
time. It may also be waiting to see
how other global agendas with
potential for cooperation between
Russia and the West Syria, for
example, and counter-terrorism
are developing.
Russia says it is pushing hard for
complete implementation as quickly
as possible, but Ukraine and its
Western supporters maintain that
it has not done enough to remove
weaponry and discuss a troop
pullout. The Kyiv government has
been unable to assemble enough
votes to pass crucial constitutional
amendments Minsk requires, to
the indignation of Russia and its
separatist allies, and is reluctant
to accept sweeping amnesty for
separatists. There has been little
progress on what Minsk envisages
to be an all for all exchange of
prisoners, though several hundred
releases have taken place. The
opposing sides are also still arguing
over
inclusive,
internationallysupervised local elections that would
in theory help normalise the political
situation in the entities.
Meanwhile, in addition to the
many troops Russia retains on its
side of the border who can deploy
quickly throughout the DNR and
LNR, separatist sources and Western
officials say, it has a number of units
inside the entities. One of the most
useful steps Moscow could take
to demonstrate its willingness to
help resolve the conflict would be
to quietly withdraw those units.
This would substantially increase
Ukrainian and Western confidence

that it is indeed committed to Minsk.
The international community could
then ensure that Ukraine did not try
to take advantage by moving across
the line of separation.
Another important step for
Russia would be to reduce military
supplies to the entities. Cuts in fuel,
lubricants and ammunition for
artillery and other heavy weapons
would gradually diminish their
forces mobility and effectiveness.
As Russia still denies providing
such items, this could be done with
minimal publicity or face loss. The
international community, including
the U.S., might react with confidencebuilding
measures,
perhaps
including a security dialogue in the
region, or consultations on ways
to dismantle the poorly-disciplined
LNR and DNR militaries.
Until there is a clearly positive
change in the core Russian
approach,
the
international
community needs to build its
policy toward Moscow over eastern
Ukraine on the assumption that
anything, including more serious
fighting, is possible. For now, this
may seem highly unlikely. Russia is
embroiled in Syria, the Donbas has

been banished from its media, and
the economy is under great strain,
due in part to sanctions, in part to
low oil prices. But large Russian
units have already fought twice in
Ukraine, once (February 2015) even
during peace talks. Moscow could
resort to such means again should
the
lower-cost,
lower-visibility
approach of supporting the entities
in a protracted conflict fail. The
European Union (EU), especially
member states Germany and France,
and the U.S. should avoid the trap
of letting a potentially lengthy
resolution process and different
interpretations of its provisions
undermine their vital consensus on
maintaining sanctions until Minsk
is fully implemented.
Research was conducted in Kyiv,
Dnepropetrovsk,
Krasnoarmiisk,
Kurakhove and Moscow and during
five visits to DNR/LNR-controlled
areas of Donetsk city and oblast
since July 2014. The briefing
focuses on recent political changes
in the entities, their relations with
Moscow and the nature of Russias
presence and control.

Crisis Group
northsouth
March 2016
32
The US and India consider joint patrols

in South China Sea
elations between the United

States and India are taking on
a greater significance amid a climate
of heightened Chinese-American
tensions. Washington and New
Delhi have drawn closer together in
recent months and intensified their
dialogue with Japan.
The United States and India have
held talks about conducting joint
naval patrols that a US defence official
said could include the disputed South
China Sea, a move that would likely
anger Beijing, which claims most of
the waterway.
The joint naval patrols could take
place within a year but no details
have filtered through on the scale of
the proposed operation.
The patrols would likely be in the
Indian Ocean where the Indian navy
is a major player as well as the South
China Sea, an official told Reuters in
New Delhi on condition of anonymity.
Although its economy will grow at
7.2 per cent this year, according to the
OECD, India is still faced with abject
poverty for half of its population who
live in slums. In the next three years,
up to 25 per cent of the worlds new
workers will be Indian, and 42 per
cent of the worlds poor will still be
living in India. Inequality is the order
of the day as the countrys wealth is
not fairly distributed.
Washington wants its regional
allies and other Asian nations to take
a more united stance against China
over the South China Sea, where

tensions have spiked in the wake
of Beijings construction of seven
man-made islands in the Spratly
archipelago.
India and the United States have
ramped up military ties in recent
years, holding naval exercises in the
Indian Ocean that last year involved
the Japanese navy.
But the Indian navy has never
carried out joint patrols with another
country and a naval spokesman told
Reuters there was no change in the
governments policy of only joining
an international military effort
under the United Nations flag.
He pointed to Indias refusal to be
part of anti-piracy missions involving
dozens of countries in the Gulf of
Aden and instead carrying out its
own operations there since 2008.
China accused the United States
last month of seeking maritime
hegemony in the name of freedom of
navigation after a US Navy destroyer
sailed within 12 nautical miles of
a disputed island in the Paracel
chain of the South China Sea in late
January. The US Navy conducted a
similar exercise in October near one
of Chinas artificial islands in the
Spratlys.
Admiral Harry Harris, head of the
US Navys Pacific Command told a
congressional committee last month
he will carry out more, and more
complex, freedom of navigation
operations in the South China Sea.

We must continue to operate in the
South China Sea to demonstrate that
that water space and the air above it
is international, Harris reiterated to
lawmakers at a hearing. The hearing
comes after China deployed surfaceto-air missiles on Woody Island in
the South China Seas Paracel chain
and radars on Cuarteron Reef in the
Spratlys.
US government sources confirmed
China recently deployed fighter jets to
Woody Island. It was not the first time
Beijing sent jets there but it raised
new questions about its intentions.
The US also has conducted sea and
air patrols near artificial islands that
China has built in the Spratly islands
chain farther south in the South
China Sea, including by two B-52
strategic bombers in November.
In January, a US Navy destroyer
carried out a patrol within 12 nautical
miles of Triton Island in the Paracels,
a move China called provocative.
Neither India nor the United States
has claims to the South China Sea,
but both said they backed freedom
of navigation and overflight in the
waterway when US President Barack
Obama visited New Delhi in January
2015.
Obama and Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi also agreed at the
time to identify specific areas for
expanding maritime cooperation.
India has a long-running land
border dispute with China and has
been careful not to antagonize its
more powerful neighbour focusing
instead on building economic ties.
But it has stepped up its naval
presence far beyond the Indian
Ocean, deploying a ship to the South
China Sea almost constantly, an
Indian navy commander said, noting
this was not the practice a few years
ago. The commander added that
the largest number of Indian naval
Obama
and Indian PM Narendra Modi

33
March 2016
northsouth

ship visits in the South China Sea
region was to Vietnam, a country
rapidly building military muscle for
potential conflict with China over the
waterway.
The Philippines has asked the US
to have joint naval patrols in the
South China Sea, something the
US military may consider in the
foreseeable future.
More than $5 trillion in world trade
moves through the South China
Sea each year. Vietnam, Malaysia,
Brunei, the Philippines and Taiwan
also claim parts of the waterway.
The scope of future strategic and
security cooperation between the
US and India will depend to a large
extent on Washingtons sensitivity

to Indias security concerns, which
revolve mainly around its arch-rival
in the region, Pakistan.
The major challenge is to establish
mechanisms to prevent current
competition from escalating to the
point of conflict, whether by accident
or design.
Ali Bahaijoub
which crude oil is vital for exports,

government revenue and GDP, has
made development in the South
China Sea a national priority. To
insulate itself from Chinese pressure,
it actively courts foreign partners,
some of which baulk due to Beijings
warnings. The Philippines badly need
new sources of domestically produced
energy, as they import nearly all their
crude oil and petroleum products,
and their only natural gas field will
soon run dry.
While each partys energy hunger
could be an incentive for cooperation,
joint exploration and development
face obstacles. Chinas precondition
that its sovereignty be recognised
over the areas concerned raises
fear that collaboration amounts to
accepting its claims. Vietnam insists
on defining overlapping claims
pursuant to the UN Convention on
the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) before

defining joint development areas.
Chinas maps do not conform to
UNCLOS principles, and it refuses
to clarify the extent or nature of its
claims. Compliance with Philippine
law that oil and gas projects must be
60 per cent Philippine-owned, might
appear to accept Manilas ownership
and by extension sovereignty.
Despite the obstacles, collaboration
has been tried. The most advanced
partnership, the Joint Marine
Seismic Undertaking (JMSU), began
as a bilateral agreement between
Beijing and Manila in 2004 to survey
the seabed for hydrocarbon deposits
in some disputed areas. Vietnam
joined in 2005, as the area overlapped
with its claims. The parties shared
expenses and responsibilities equally
and worked together. But in late 20072008, nationalists in the Philippines
Stirring up the South China Sea:

Oil in troubled waters
he South China Seas hydrocarbon

resources are hotly contested
though its reserves are unproven.
While their potential economic
benefit may be considerable, their
foremost significance is political, as
their division has implications for
sovereignty and fundamental law
of the sea principles. Exploration
frictions have deepened geopolitical
fault lines. Competition once framed
by verbal warnings and diplomatic
pressure today frequently takes
the form of physical confrontation.
A key factor is Chinas growing
capability and accompanying desire
to expand its own exploration while
preventing other claimants activity.
In parallel, Beijing has advocated
setting aside disputes and developing
resources jointly, but as collaboration
remains elusive, analysts in China
have called for unilateral measures
to pressure uncooperative parties.
Better would be greater efforts to
create mechanisms for preventing
competition from becoming conflict,
while seeking better understanding
of motivations needed for eventual
cooperation.
Chinas state-owned oil majors,
known collectively as the three
buckets of oil, have grown rapidly
in financial strength and technical
capability,
especially
deep-water
drilling. Driven by political zeal
and internecine competition, their
executives have for years pressed the
government for policy and financial
support to enable exploration farther
from the Chinese shore and deeper
into disputed waters. Vietnam, for
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March 2016
34
accused the government of secret,

corrupt concessions that violated the
constitution. When the pact expired
in July 2008, Manila did not renew it.
The JMSU was conducted under
particular
circumstances.
Most
importantly, each party prioritised
maintaining stable relations over
asserting claims. That ingredient
has been missing in recent years
marked
by
frequent
friction,
heightened tensions and volatile
ties. Another promising opportunity
for a joint development agreement
of comparable scope is unlikely to
appear soon. Beijing (political) and
Manila (economic) have incentives
to cooperate, but their frigid
relationship, resulting from Chinas
assertive actions and the Philippines
subsequent request for international
arbitration, has made collaboration
an even harder public sale for
Manila, and Philippine law remains a

problem. Hanoi is less constrained but
also economically less motivated to
collaborate with China, though they
consult on joint exploration outside
the mouth of the Gulf of Tonkin.
There are two key challenges. The
first is to establish mechanisms to
prevent current competition from
escalating to the point of conflict,
whether by accident or design; the
second the subject of this report
is to understand the motivations and
limitations of the players in order
to lay the foundations for greater
collaboration, first in exploration,
then in development.
To preserve the long-term prospect
of collaboration and minimise the
danger of clashes, parties should
refrain from unilateral exploration
and exploitation, particularly around
land, such as islands in the Paracel and
Spratly groups, whose sovereignty

is hotly contested. When a more
favourable regional environment is
restored, steps can be taken to lower
the obstacles. Chinas preconditions
might be countered by specifying in
legal terms that participation in joint
exploration and development does
not imply sovereignty concessions.
Misgivings about its maps could
be mitigated if China were to move
in the direction of framing its claims
under UNCLOS, even implicitly. To
incentivise Vietnam, for example, it
should follow UNCLOS principles in
quiet negotiations on the area of joint
exploration outside the mouth of the
Gulf of Tonkin.
In exchange, Vietnam should
refrain from trying to open
negotiations on the Paracels.

Crisis Group
Lebanon needs to elect a president to

maintain stability
ebanon has been without an

executive head of state since
President
Michel
Suleimans
mandate ended in May 2014. In
the past few months, however, key
Lebanese political players have
switched partners, undermining
the two blocs that have polarised
Lebanons government for the past
decade.
Furthermorte,
the
deplorable
living conditions of Syrian refugees,
their lack of any prospects for the
future, the deteriorating socioeconomic
dynamics
faced
by
Lebanese themselves, made worse
by years of political paralysis, are all
important factors playing into the
hands of jihadis. At the same time,
sectarian tensions have radicalised
Shiites, who now perceive Sunni
extremists as an existential threat.
By Lebanons sectarian rules,
the president has to be a Maronite
Christian, the prime minister a
35
March 2016
Sunni and the speaker of parliament

a Shiite. Until recently, a highly
polarised
political
class
was
dithering, unable to agree on a
presidential candidate who would
reconcile its conflicting interests. It
is divided into two broad coalitions,
dubbed March 8, a Hizbollah-led
grouping backed by Iran and the
Syrian regime, and March 14, an
anti-Syria alliance led by the (Sunni)
Future Current, which have been
engaged in a zero-sum game since
the 2005 killing of Prime Minister
Rafic Hariri, allegedly by the Syrian
regime. Both coalitions preferred
stalemate to the risk of a new
president who would tilt the balance
in favour of the opposing camp. At
present, virtually no contender can
be considered neutral as president.
Late last year, in an apparent
breakthrough,
Future
Current
leader Saad Hariri, son of the
assassinated
Rafic,
struck
a
northsouth
counterintuitive deal with Suleiman

Frangieh, a Christian politician and
close friend of President Bashar
Assad of Syria. This would have
made Frangieh president and
Hariri, reportedly, prime minister.
This proposal was soon countered by
another coming from Samir Geagea,
the head of the Christian political
party Lebanese Forces, who had
been a candidate for the post, and
who endorsed the candidacy of his
greatest rival, Michel Aoun, leader
of the Free Patriotic Movement. In
both cases, a prominent March 14
figure was reaching out to a staunch
March 8 representative, hoping for
a breakthough in the long running
political paralysis.
The current Prime Minister Tamam
Salam once publicly described his
government as useless partly
due to the prolonged vacuum at
the top of the political hierarchy.
This is indicative of the countrys

Maronite leader Michel Aoun (L), Majority Leader
Saad Al-Hariri (2nd R) and Maronite Christian
leader Samir Geagea (R)
almost total institutional gridlock.

The council of ministers, which
in principle should assume the
presidents powers in the interim,
has been paralysed by internal
disagreements.
Neighbouring
conflicts
have
further exacerbated the situation as
well as the influx of one and a half
million refugees from the ongoing
civil war in Syria. Saudi-Iranian
enmity has not helped the situation
either exacerbating the already
strained
Lebanons
precarious
political stability and the existing
sectarian divisions.
The refugee crisis has impacted on
the economic activity of the country
and its social fabric and the violence
in Syria has threatened to spill over
into Lebanon. Had it not been for
the Security Plan that has helped
contain rising violence and agreed
upon by Lebanons two main political
alliances, March 8 and March 14
in April 2014, Lebanon would have
plunged into a cycle of violence of
unspeakable proportion.
All parties agree that the election
of a new president would put an
end to the current policy of crisis
management. His election will also

pave the way for the formation of a
new government and parliamentary
elections. Electing a president
should help put Lebanon back on an
even keel institutionally and would
help restore a degree of normality
and political stability and lead to the
functioning of state institutions.
In the wake of last Novembers
deadly terrorist bombing in Beirut
and the ongoing negative impact of
the Syrian crisis on the countrys
stability,
these
challenging
circumstances need strong State
institutions, including the Armed
Forces and security services, in their
efforts to safeguard the country.
The international community has
reaffirmed strong support for the
territorial integrity, sovereignty, and

political independence of Lebanon.
However, the strong support for the
territorial integrity, sovereignty, and
political independence of Lebanon is
also translated by the deep concern
over the 21-month vacancy in the
Presidency of the Republic, which
seriously impairs Lebanons ability
to address the security, economic,
social, and humanitarian challenges
facing it.
Lebanon remains a model of a
democratic community cemented
together by historical and political
stability stemming from a mosaic
of political and religious affiliations
and alliances that have co-existed
peacefully together for decades.

Ali Bahaijoub
Zika link to birth defects could be

proven within weeks-WHO
he suspected link between the

Zika virus and two neurological
disorders,
the
birth
defect
microcephaly and Guillain-Barre
syndrome, could be confirmed within
weeks, the World Health Organisation
(WHO) said last month.
A sharp increase in microcephaly
cases in Brazil has triggered a global
health emergency over the mosquitoborne virus, which had previously
been viewed as causing only a
relatively mild illness, and spurred a
race to develop a vaccine, medicines
and better diagnostic tests.
The WHO said US government
scientists and an Indian biotechnology

firm were the front-runners in the
vaccine effort but said it would take
at least 18 months to start large-scale
clinical trials of potential preventative
shots. The U.N. health agency also
for the first time advised pregnant
women to consider delaying travel to
Zika-affected areas.
Brazil is at the center of the Zika
outbreak that has spread to more
than 30 countries. Researchers there
are working to determine whether
Zika has caused a big rise in cases of
microcephaly, a birth defect in which
babies are born with abnormally small
heads and may have developmental

problems.
Brazils health ministry issued
fresh figures on Friday, reporting
4,314 suspected and confirmed cases
of microcephaly, up from 4,074
cases on Feb. 2. The ministry said it
had confirmed 462 of those cases as
microcephaly or other alterations
to the central nervous system.
Researchers have identified evidence
of Zika infection in 41 of these cases,
either in the baby or in the mother.
But scientists have not confirmed
that Zika can cause microcephaly.
It seems indeed that the link with
northsouth
March 2016
36
Zika (and microcephaly) is becoming

more and more probable, so I think
that we need a few more weeks
and a few more studies to have this
straight, Marie-Paule Kieny, WHO
assistant director-general for health
systems and innovation, told a news
briefing in Geneva.
Studies of Zika-infected pregnant
Latin American women who were
due to deliver their babies soon
should yield evidence, Kieny said,
adding that data also was coming
from studies in French Polynesia and
Cape Verde.
Kieny said Zika-hit areas also
have experienced increased cases of
the neurological disease GuillainBarre, adding: The direct causality
has still to be demonstrated but the
association in time and in location
seems to be clear.
Guillain-Barre syndrome, in which
the bodys immune system attacks
part of the nervous system, causes
gradual weakness in the legs, arms
and upper body and sometimes total
paralysis.
In a statement, the WHO reiterated
it was not recommending any general
travel or trade restrictions related to
the virus. But it added, Women who
are pregnant should discuss their
travel plans with their healthcare
provider and consider delaying travel
to any area where locally acquired
Zika infection is occurring.
37
March 2016
Brazil is set to host the Olympics

in August in Rio de Janeiro, an
event expected to draw hundreds of
thousands of athletes, officials and
spectators.
Many scientists are convinced the
link between Zika and birth defects
is real. New evidence of Zika in the
brain of an aborted foetus, reported
on Wednesday, added to the case.
Speaking
at
an
American
Association for the Advancement
of Science news conference in
Washington, another WHO official,
Christopher Dye, reiterated the
agencys strong suspicion.
If we take all the information we
have at the moment, the case for
a causal link is quite strong, Dye
said. We should now say that Zika is
guilty until proven innocent.
The WHOs Kieny said two vaccine
candidates seem to be more advanced:
one from the U.S. National Institutes
of Health (NIH) and one from the
Indian company Bharat Biotech.
The NIH is working on a DNA-based
vaccine that uses the same approach
as one being developed for West Nile
virus. Indias Bharat said last week its
experimental vaccine would start preclinical trials imminently in animals.
Overall, about 15 groups are
working on Zika vaccines.
Kieny said new diagnostic test kits
also were being rapidly developed
and could be available within weeks.
northsouth
Zika is predominantly spread by

mosquito bites, but scientists are
studying transmission by blood
transfusions and sexual contact.
British health officials reported
Zika was found in a British mans
semen two months after being
infected, suggesting the virus may
linger in semen long after infection
symptoms fade.
They said the 68-year-old man,
infected in 2014 in French Polynesia,
had low levels of the virus in initial
blood tests. Subsequent tests of
semen showed positive results at 27
days and 62 days after the start of
Zika symptoms, with higher levels of
the virus in the semen than the initial
blood tests.
Our data may indicate prolonged
presence of virus in semen, which
in turn could indicate a prolonged
potential for sexual transmission
of this virus, the researchers from
Public Health England and the
National Institute for Health Research
in Liverpool wrote in Emerging
Infectious Diseases, a journal of the
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and
Prevention.
The WHO has advised women,
particularly pregnant women, to
protect themselves from mosquito
bites in Zika-affected areas and to
practice safe sex through the use of
condoms.
Stephanie Nebehay
and Ben Hirschler
EU Global Strategy Expert Opinion

By Jean-Marie Guhenno, President of Crisis Group
he refugee crisis is morphing

into one about the very nature
of the European project. This is far
more critical for the Union than the
euro crisis, which, ultimately, could
be resolved with a show of financial
solidarity and money. The refugee
issue, however, strikes at the heart
of the values that underpin EU
members core political solidarity.
Given the cracks opening up in
the EUs foundations, a new EU
Global Strategy on Foreign and
Security Policy (EUGS) must have
the ambition to be more than just
a good deal for its member states.
The old continent will continue to
see its divisions widen if it only
tries to stand still, eventually either
giving into realists who advocate
minimalist goals, or adopting a
defensive agenda that dodges the
difficult issues.
The question is, of course, how
to make Europe globally relevant
once again. First, European leaders
must recognise two important
long-term trends: the diminishing
dominance of the West, of which
Europe is a critical element; and the
reduced capacity of old-fashioned
military power to shape the world.
These two dynamics bind Europe
inextricably to the US, and the
relationship
with
Washington
is the most important strategic
element of any EU strategy. The US
will remain militarily dominant for
the foreseeable future even if the
ability of the Wests armies, navies
and air forces to project power
across the world is diminished.
Democracies must stick together,
too, conscious that the majority of
the worlds population live under
non-democratic or semi-democratic
systems.
But Europe should not adopt a
policy of alignment, either, because
the US, with its own priorities, is
not prepared to bail out Europe

in all circumstances. To navigate
between the dangerous extremes of
denial on one hand and abdication
of responsibility on the other, the
EU should focus on those priorities
where it has unique interests that
do not conflict with those of the
US, but are sufficiently distinct to
require specific responses. Five
spring to mind: Russia: Moscows
growing military strength needs
to be counterbalanced by a solid
European military alliance with
the US. But Russias deepening
socio-economic weaknesses require
a specific European policy of
engagement. After all, a failing
Russia would be first and foremost
a European problem.
The Middle East and North Africa
(MENA): more than 45 million
Muslims live in Europe, and most
of their families came from the
neighbouring MENA. Continued
chaos in the region will generate
more terrorism and more refugees.
In response, Europe should do more
to hold Turkey close. For political
credibility, it also needs to develop a
principled, united long-term policy,
including on the Israel-Palestine
conflict and issues of justice and
accountability.
Militarist policies alone will
only backfire. Sub-saharan Africa:
the continent has the potential to
become a major source of conflict
and transnational terrorism if
its many governance issues
particularly in the Sahel are not
addressed. But, successfully
governed, it can also become the
greatest engine of growth of the
twenty-first century, considering
its youthful demography, abundant
natural
and
hydroelectric
resources, and rich arable land.
Cybersecurity: this is a priority
for all countries that have entered
the digital age, and one in which

the EU needs to protect its distinct
privacy and commercial interests.
Rebuilding global institutions:
this must be done even if it means
sharing more power. The EU is
based on multilateralism and
the rule of law, and it will wither
away if the UN system, the Bretton
Woods institutions, and regional
organisations go into decline.
Absent from this list of priorities
are Asia and Latin America. Despite
important historic and economic
links, they are not priorities, and
the EU should accept that it
finds it difficult to leverage its
economic and limited military
power for distant political goals.
To
address
Europes
main
needs, the EUGS should integrate
the Unions strong development
policies, embrace more conflict
prevention, make full use of
regional dynamics, avoid quick
fixes (especially military ones),
and use principled engagement
to consolidate the norms that
give it most clout. The EUs weak
crisis management shows how its
Jean-Marie Guhenno president of Crisis Group
northsouth
March 2016
38
intergovernmental approach no
longer works. Europeans should
build a shared strategic and
military culture,
without which a pro-active
foreign policy, including effective
force projection, is unlikely to
emerge. First, though, Europe
needs confidence in itself.

Foreign policy cannot be the
product of a technocratic process; it
must be the expression of a human
community. In that regard, the
most important strategic
priority may well be to stop the
fragmentation of Europe, integrate
all its citizens into its politics,

bureaucracies
and
narratives,
and end the fear that is gripping
national voters. Ultimately, rather
than the advice of experts, Europe
needs a very public debate among
all its citizens on what it stands for
and what is worth defending.
Despite the failed revolution, Egypts

iron-fisted ruler wont last
Egyptians have always been ill-served, at best, and brutalized, at worst, by their leaders,
whether Ottoman, British, Nasserist or under President Hosni Mubaraks 30-year rule, writes
Stephanie Thomas
nstead of asking why Egypts

revolution of five years ago failed,
lets point a finger at the sorry
parade of post-revolutionary leaders
who have presumed to lead but failed
just as their predecessors did.
Egyptian
citizens
were
illserved by their first democratically
elected leader, President Mohamed
Morsi of the Muslim Brotherhood.
Overweening and prone to clumsy
power grabs that appeared to have
less to do with Islam than stupidity,
Morsi was more incompetent than
he was evil. He was certainly no
terrorist, as President Abdel Fattah
al-Sisi has labeled him and all other
Muslim Brotherhood members.
Egyptians were also failed by
the liberal and secular politicians
whose self-interest took precedence
over the hard work of developing
strong
alliances,
parties
and
platforms. They espoused pluralistic
democratic values but applied them
selectively in 2013, for example,
they chose to back the violent
overthrow of Morsi rather than let
him be voted out of office.
Consider Nobel Laureate Mohamed
ElBaradei, who played the coy
politician for two years, tweeting
his fatuous aspirations instead of
rolling up his sleeves and building
the political process. He then joined
Sisis interim government, only
39
March 2016
to resign a month later after the

Rabaa massacre, in which some 800
Muslim Brotherhood supporters
were killed by security forces.
Egyptians have even been let
down by a generation of their
own sons and daughters. These
young activists often seemed more
adept at online organizing and
protesting no matter the cause
than protecting the gains of their
protests. After fighting the military
throughout 2011 and 2012, many
joined the military-backed effort to
remove Morsi in the spring of 2013,
even protesting when Sisi called for
a show of support. Familiar with
this pattern, it was inevitable that
they would eventually sour on Sisi,
which they have.
That said, none of them deserved
to be put in prison, where many of
them languish.
While covering the protests
in Tahrir Square in 2011, I was
inspired to leave my television job,
move back to Egypt and be a witness
to what looked like a promising
future. I had lived happily in Cairo
as a student studying Arabic in
the 1990s and looked forward to
working at the American University
in Cairo, a campus infused with postrevolutionary energy and potential.
When I arrived in September
2011, the romantic slogans (The
northsouth
army and the people are one hand)

and alliances forged in Tahrir
Square
were
already
fraying
badly. The Supreme Council of the
Armed Forces, the interim military
body that replaced Mubarak, was
cracking down on protesters
with impunity, most egregiously
during what came to be known as
the Maspero massacre, in which
armored personnel vehicles were
caught on camera mowing down
fleeing Coptic protesters. When
the Muslim Brotherhood swept the
parliamentary elections of 2011
and 2012, political demonization
become the preferred platform of the
feckless secular opposition groups.
Closer to home, I found a giddy
array of empowered and politically
vocal citizens, a liberated media
and a class of public intellectuals
sporting shiny new revolutionary
personas, and the clothes to match
(revolution chic). One professorturned-politician
sported
long
hair, corduroy sport coats and
appeared to do a little teaching
(sometimes from his car by calling
in to a students phone that would
be set on speakerphone). One
former
ambassador-turned-dean
embodied the values of civil liberty
and democracy in elegant suits,
then promptly joined the postMorsi interim military government.
A cadre of denim-clad, gel-haired

Tahrir activists secretly cooperated
with the military to foment a grassroots movement against Morsi.
Even
the
revolution-anointed
leaders were failing Egypts citizens.
By the time I left Cairo in June 2013,
most people I knew at the university
supported a return to military rule
and seemed to accept as a given
the violent and illiberal measures it
would take to do so. One self-aware
pundit coined the phrase Egypts
illiberal liberals.
Egypts current regime, led by Sisi,
makes the Mubarak regime look
benign. Harsh repression is justified
in the name of security and stability,
protests are against the law, political
groups are banned or emasculated
and polarization is promoted by a
subservient media.
Sisis hold on power has been aided
by widening regional chaos. Libya,
Syria and Yemen loom conveniently
large in case Egyptians forget
what
premature
democracy
movements can yield. A spate of
recent house arrests and enforced
disappearances
has
targeted
journalists and civil-rights activists,
which has forced the government
to acknowledge that hundreds are
being illegally detained.
The discovery last week of the

body of Giulio Regeni, a 28-year-old
Italian PhD student, who was left by
the side of a road and appeared to
have been tortured, was considered
particularly unsettling because the
Egyptian security forces typically
reserve their brutality exclusively
for Egyptians. In spite of continuing
efforts by Italian authorities,
Regenis family will almost certainly
never find out what happened to
their son, just as tens of thousands
of Egyptians never learn the truth
about the extrajudicial deaths of
family members.
Not much is likely to change in
the short term. Sisi will probably
continue to perform better outside
of Egypt than domestically, and
hell maximize his role as a line of
defence against Islamic State in the
Sinai. He will likely manoeuvre for a
place in whatever regional coalition
is formed to manage the crises in
Libya, Syria and Yemen. He will
continue to receive international
support and military aid in spite of
his authoritarian measures. Ninety
million Egyptians will continue to
struggle with rising food prices,
high unemployment, impossible
daily commutes, poor healthcare,
worse education and an entirely
unaccountable government.
Where is the bright side? It is the
simple fact of Egypts revolution
not its much-debated outcomes.
Egyptians have shown that they
can depose leaders who serve them
badly, whether theyve done this
righteously, cynically or fickly.
Egyptians have also shown their
capacity for political accommodation
and transient loyalties bad for
democracy but useful for getting rid
of governments.
With time, as Sisis excesses
continue,
new
alliances
of
convenience and cooperation will
form among unexpected allies.
Muslim Brotherhood sympathizers
may once again align with secular
groups; military factions may
find the Brotherhood a useful ally
against a rogue president. Voices
in the media will begin to speak
up. Criticism on social media will
begin to build up a revolutionary
head of steam. One day, Sisi
will be replaced probably not
democratically. I hope whoever
replaces him will finally serve
Egyptians better. The views
expressed in this article are
the authors own and do not
necessarily reflect North-South
Magazines editorial policy.
northsouth
March 2016
40
Venezuela on the edge
he 6 December parliamentary
election in which the Venezuelan
opposition won a landslide victory
and a two-thirds legislative majority,
combined with the ongoing economic
meltdown, should have encouraged
a more conciliatory stance by the
government and a mutual search
for a basic political agreement.
But it has not, and the country is
very near political and economic
implosion. As the risk of an extraconstitutional response by either
side or a military coup increases,
the Organization of American States
(OAS) should take up the matter
urgently and prepare an emergency
political and humanitarian initiative
to prevent serious violence and a
collapse that would bring instability
to the region and deepen the misery
of Venezuelans themselves.
The opposition coalition took
control of the National Assembly on
5 January. The election had given
it a sweeping mandate not only to
legislate but to act as a check on
the power of the executive under
President Nicols Maduro. For the
first time since 1999 the ruling
party had lost control of one of the
branches of state. From the outset,
however, the National Assembly
has been subjected to a campaign of
harassment, ranging from physical
attacks on opposition legislators
to adverse rulings by the Supreme
Court (TSJ), which the government
controls through compliant, often
politically aligned judges.
President Maduro has declared
41
March 2016
himself in rebellion against the

legislature and announced that
he will refuse to sign, or abide
by, laws he opposes, such as an
amnesty for political prisoners
or a bill to grant property rights
to occupants of public housing
projects. Government ministers
have disobeyed summonses to attend
parliamentary hearings. The TSJ
approved an emergency presidential
decree after it was vetoed by the
assembly.
With parliament at risk of being
reduced to a talking shop, the
opposition has announced plans
to remove Supreme Court justices
whose appointments were made in
violation of procedural rules. It has
also outlined alternative methods
of bringing forward the end of
the Maduro administration. The
constitution provides several ways
to trigger a popular vote, including
a mid-term recall of the president, a
constitutional amendment and the
convening of a constituent assembly.
The bottom line is that a major
constitutional
confrontation
is under way that threatens to
exacerbate the countrys other woes
and provoke violence on the streets.
Some observers fear the armed
forces may intervene if the deadlock
is not resolved.
The crisis might be considered
purely political if it were not for
Venezuelas dire economic and
social predicament. There are acute
shortages of food, medicines and
other vital supplies, including those
needed to cope with the spread
of the Zika virus, which recently
arrived in Latin America and the
Caribbean and is spreading fast,
posing a serious threat to unborn
babies in particular. On 17 February,
the chairman of the parliamentary
health commission asked the World
Health Organization to provide
humanitarian assistance and send
northsouth
a technical mission to Venezuela to

examine the situation. But unless
the government agrees to the
request, the WHO cannot act. And
while political paralysis continues,
there is little hope of effectively
addressing humanitarian concerns.
The time has come for regional
organisations
and
the
wider
international community to act.
The Inter-American Democratic
Charter authorises an OAS response
in the event of an unconstitutional
alteration of the constitutional
regime that seriously impairs the
democratic order in a member
state. What is in process and fast
approaching the critical point in
Venezuela is just such a situation.
The OAS Permanent Council should
debate this as a matter of urgency
and entrust its secretary general
with an international mission to
serve as a springboard for the
implementation of institutional
arrangements for overcoming the
crisis.
All in Venezuela must meanwhile
refrain from extra-constitutional
measures. The government must
acknowledge the new political
situation and behave accordingly,
respecting in full the authority of
the parliament. The new legislative
majority and the opposition at large
must adhere to legal mechanisms.
The armed forces must abstain from
taking sides and abide by lawful
procedures.
Venezuelas
hemispheric
neighbours
and
the
broader
international community need to act
now, both to head off violence and to
provide humanitarian assistance to
alleviate critical shortages of food
and medicines. The region has so far
failed to foster a functional dialogue
in Caracas. Further inaction would
undermine the norms and values
that Latin American countries are
sworn to uphold. Crisis Group
Thai election in 2017 even if

constitution is rejected: PM
hailand has been under military

rule since May 2014, when
General Prayuth Chan-Ocha and
the Royal Thai Army seized power
after
deposing
democratically
elected Prime Minister Yingluck
Shinawatra.
Current
Prime
Minister Prayuth has systematically
postponed elections on the grounds
of prioritizing order and drafting
a new constitution to restore
democracy. Since the coup, Thai
authorities have curtailed opposition
to the monarchy, while the countrys
economy has languished.
Now it was announced by the
military junta that it will hold a
general election in 2017 even if a
draft constitution does not pass a
referendum this year, according to
the Prime Minister Prayuth Chanocha.
Political instability has haunted
Southeast Asias second biggest
economy for the past decade and
promises on a return to democracy
from the military government are
closely watched.
The government had previously
made a new constitution a
prerequisite for a general election,
but Prime Minister said a vote would
go ahead in mid-2017, even if it had
to be held under an old constitution.
No matter whether the draft
constitution passes the referendum
or not, the government will hold the
election in 2017 according to our
roadmap, Prayuth, a former army
chief who staged the 2014 coup, told
reporters.
Prayuth did not say why he
wanted an election even if the draft
is rejected, but his announcement is
likely to ease concern that a return
to democracy could be repeatedly
derailed. I promise that in July
2017 there will definitely be an
election, he said.
The junta, known as the National
Council for Peace and Order, has
curbed dissent and pushed back

the timetable for elections to 2017,
raising concern about the prospects
of a country that was for years
hailed as a shining example of a fastdeveloping Asian economy.
At the heart of the fractious
politics is rivalry between the
Bangkok-based
royalist-military
establishment and populist former
Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra
and his allies, who the establishment
sees as a threat.
A decade of tumultuous politics
has included two coups, five elections
and bouts of civil disobedience and
street violence in which scores of
people have been killed.
A junta-appointed committee has
written a draft for the countrys
20th constitution and was unveiled
at the end of January. The official
in charge of drawing it up said he
feared it would not resolve longrunning troubles and critics said
it would produce weak civilian
government under the sway of
the military. Meechai Ruchupan,
chairman of the junta-appointed
Constitution Drafting Committee,
said his team had included clauses
aimed at reconciliation but it had
failed to come up with easy remedies.
A government roadmap for a mid2017 election would be delayed by a
minimum of two to three months,
he said.
A military appointed reform
council rejected a previous draft
in September. The government
will put the draft to a referendum,
expected in July, but opposition to
it is simmering across the political
spectrum. Criticism of the new draft
has raised the possibility of a return
to democracy being derailed again
but the Prime Minister said a vote
would go ahead in mid-2017, even
if under an old constitution despite
critics saying the draft is aimed at
consolidating the militarys power.
Democracy activists and some

political parties say the charter
will undermine the development
of democracy and result in weak
coalitions easily manipulated by the
military.
Meechai Ruchupan, chairman
of
the
Constitution
Drafting
Committee, told Reuters in
an
interview that the constitution was
aimed at resolving long-running
problems such as abuse of power by
lawmakers.
The constitution will be harder to
amend than previous ones and the
junta will retain power until a new
government is elected, including a
much-criticised clause to counter
any threat to national security.
Thailands unpopular crown prince
will succeed the countrys beloved
but aging king and an orderly
succession process will reduce
immediate political uncertainty and
support the ruling military juntas
near-term efforts to remake the
countrys political system. However,
as a weak monarch, the prince will
depend greatly on the military for
legitimacy and will not command an
independent power base. Over the
longer term, the succession will
expose Thailands deeper issues as
the weakening of the monarchy
triggers a scramble to reshape
the countrys political power
structure.
Alan Brown
northsouth
March 2016
42
Pentagon thwarts Obamas

effort to close Guantanamo
By Charles Levinson and David Rohde
n September, US State Department

officials
invited
a
foreign
delegation to the Guantanamo Bay
detention center to persuade the
group to take detainee Tariq Ba Odah
to their country. If they succeeded,
the transfer would mark a small
step toward realizing President
Barack Obamas goal of closing the
prison before he leaves office.
The foreign officials told the
administration they would first
need to review Ba Odahs medical
records, according to U.S. officials
with knowledge of the episode. The
Yemeni has been on a hunger strike
for seven years, dropping to 74
pounds from 148, and the foreign
officials wanted to make sure they
could care for him.
For the next six weeks, Pentagon
officials declined to release the
records, citing patient privacy
concerns, according to the US
officials. The delegation, from a
country administration officials
declined to identify, cancelled its
visit. After the administration
promised to deliver the records, the
delegation travelled to Guantanamo
and appeared set to take the prisoner
off U.S. hands, the officials said. The
Pentagon again withheld Ba Odahs
full medical file.
Today, nearly 14 years since he
was placed in the prison and five
years since he was cleared for
release by U.S. military, intelligence
and diplomatic officials, Ba Odah
remains in Guantanamo.
In interviews with multiple
current and former administration
officials involved in the effort to close
Guantanamo, Reuters found that
the struggle over Ba Odahs medical
records was part of a pattern. Since
Obama took office in 2009, these
people said, Pentagon officials have
been throwing up bureaucratic
43
March 2016
obstacles to thwart the presidents

plan to close Guantanamo.
Negotiating prisoner releases with
the Pentagon was like punching a
pillow, said James Dobbins, the State
Department special representative
to Afghanistan and Pakistan from
2013 to 2014. Defence Department
officials would come to a meeting,
they would not make a counterargument, he said. And then
nothing would happen.
Pentagon
delays,
he
said,
resulted in four Afghan detainees
spending an additional four years in
Guantanamo after being approved
for transfer.
In other cases, the transfers of
six prisoners to Uruguay, five to
Kazakhstan, one to Mauritania
and one to Britain were delayed
for months or years by Pentagon
resistance or inaction, officials said.
To slow prisoner transfers,
Pentagon officials have refused
to provide photographs, complete
medical
records
and
other
basic documentation to foreign
governments
willing
to
take
detainees, administration officials
said. They have made it increasingly
difficult for foreign delegations
to visit Guantanamo, limited the
time foreign officials can interview
detainees and barred delegations
from spending the night at
Guantanamo.
Partly as a result of the Pentagons
manoeuvres, it is increasingly
doubtful that Obama will fulfill
a pledge he made in the 2008
presidential election: to close the
detention center at the U.S. Naval
Base at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba.
Obama criticized President George
W. Bush for having set up the prison
for foreigners seized in the War
on Terror after the Sept. 11, 2001,
attacks on the U.S., and then keeping
northsouth
them there for years without trial.

When Obama took office, the
prison held 242 detainees, down
from a peak of about 680 in 2003.
Today, with little more than a year
remaining in his presidency, it still
holds 107 detainees.
Pentagon officials denied any
intentional effort to slow transfers.
No foreign government or U.S.
department has ever notified the
Department of Defense that transfer
negotiations collapsed due to a lack
of information or access provided
by the Department of Defense, said
Pentagon spokesman Gary Ross, a
US Navy commander.
Myles Caggins, a White House
spokesman, denied discord with
the Pentagon. Were all committed
to the same goal: safely and
responsibly closing the detention
facility, Caggins said.
Former Secretary of Defense
Chuck Hagel said in an interview
that it was natural for the Pentagon
to be cautious on transfers that
could result in detainees rejoining
the fight against US forces. Look
at where most of the casualties have
come from -- its the military, Hagel
said.
The Pentagons slow pace in
approving transfers was a factor
in President Obamas decision to
remove Hagel in February, former
administration officials said. And
in September, amid continuing
Pentagon delays, President Obama
upbraided Defense Secretary Ashton
Carter in a one-on-one meeting,
according to administration officials
briefed on the encounter.
Since then, the Pentagon has been
more cooperative. Administration
officials said they expect to begin
transferring at least 17 detainees to
foreign countries in January.
Military
officials,
however,
continue to make transfers more

difficult
and
protracted
than
necessary, administration officials
said. In particular, they cite General
John F. Kelly, in charge of the US
Southern Command, which includes
Guantanamo. They said that Kelly,
whose son was killed fighting the
Taliban in Afghanistan, opposes
the presidents policy of closing
Guantanamo, and that he and his
command have created obstacles for
visiting delegations.
Kelly denied that he or his
command has limited delegation
visits. Our staff works closely
with the members of Naval Station
Guantanamo Bay and Joint Task
Force Guantanamo to support the
visits of all foreign delegations, he
said in a written statement, and
have never refused or curtailed one
of these visits.
Even if Obama manages to
transfer all low-risk detainees
to
other
countries,
closing
Guantanamo wont be easy. Several
dozen prisoners considered too
dangerous to release would have
to be imprisoned in the US, a step
Republicans in Congress adamantly
oppose because, they say, it would
endanger American lives.
In a press conference earlier this
month, Obama said he still hoped
to strike a deal with Congress. He
added, however, that he reserved the
right to move the prisoners to the
US under his executive authority.
The Bush administration faced

no political opposition on transfers
and was able to move 532 detainees
out of Guantanamo over six years,
35 percent of whom returned
to the fight, according to US
intelligence estimates. The Obama
administration has been able to
transfer 131 detainees over seven
years, 10 percent of whom have
returned to the fight.
Two days after Obama was sworn
in as president in 2009, he signed
an executive order mandating
an immediate review of all 242
detainees then held in Guantanamo
and requiring the closure of the
detention center. A year later, a
task force that included the Defense
Department and U.S. intelligence
agencies unanimously concluded
that 156 detainees were low enough
security threats to be transferred to
foreign countries.
Members of Congress, meanwhile,
seized on reports that transferred
detainees had returned to the fight
to demand that Guantanamo remain
open.
Among those former detainees was
Abdul Qayum Zakir, also known as
Mullah Zakir, who hid his identity
from Guantanamo interrogators and
became the Talibans top military
commander after his release. He
was responsible for hundreds of
American deaths after returning
to Afghanistan, according to David
Sedney, who served as deputy
assistant secretary of defense for

Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central
Asia from 2009 to 2013.
In late 2010, Congress passed a law
requiring the secretary of defense to
personally certify to Congress that a
released detainee cannot engage or
re-engage in any terrorist activity.
Detainee
transfers
out
of
Guantanamo slowed to a trickle.
In 2011 and 2012, only a handful
was released under an exception
to the new law that allowed courtordered releases to bypass the newly
legislated requirements. By January
2013, the outlook was so bleak that
the State Department shuttered
the office tasked with handling the
closure of Guantanamo.
Michael Williams, the former
State Department deputy envoy
for closing Guantanamo, said that
during that period, William Lietzau,
deputy assistant secretary of
defense for detainee policy, was not
supportive of a Guantanamo closure
policy and an obstacle to transfers
inside the Pentagon.
Lietzau, who left his job in 2013,
denied obstructing transfers. He
said in many cases, delays resulted
from his concerns about the ability
of foreign countries to monitor
transferred detainees. You have
guys who are cleared for transfer,
but there is no way to get the
assurances, so what do you do
then? Lietzau said.
In May 2013, President Obama
northsouth
March 2016
44
unveiled a new push to close the

prison. He appointed two new
envoys, one at the Pentagon and one
at the State Department, to oversee
the prisons closure. One of their top
priorities was to transfer as many
prisoners as possible to countries
willing to take them.
The State Department then
proposed that four low-risk Afghan
detainees be transferred back to
Afghanistan. The four men -- Khi
Ali Gul, Shawali Khan, Abdul
Ghani and Mohammed Zahir -- then
ranged in age from their early 40s
to their early 60s. All had been at
Guantanamo for seven years but
never formally charged with a
crime, and all had been cleared for
release by the interagency review
board years earlier.
In the case of Gul, State
Department officials argued that he
was almost certainly innocent. The
consensus was that he had never had
any contact with the insurgency or
al Qaeda, said Dobbins. I can say
with confidence we have captured,
detained and released thousands of
people who have done worse things
than these four.
US officials had offered in secret
peace talks with the Taliban in
2012 to swap the four Afghans for
captured American soldier Bowe
Bergdahl.
Taliban
negotiators
said they didnt want the four men
because the four werent senior
Taliban members.
Afterwards, State Department
officials began referring to them
as the JV four or Junior Varsity
four, for their seeming lack of
importance to Taliban fighters.
When the State Department
added the four Afghans to a list of
detainees prioritized for transfer
in the summer of 2013, Defence
Department officials resisted. At a
meeting at the Pentagon, a mid-level
Defence Department official said
transferring the four might be the
presidents priority, but its not the
45
March 2016
Pentagons priority or the priority

of the people in this building,
according to current and former
administration officials present at
the meeting.
With the White Houses backing,
the
State
Department
moved
forward. By spring 2014, the
four Afghans were about to be
sent home. Then, General Joseph
Dunford, commander of U.S. forces
in Afghanistan at the time, sent
a memo to the State Department
warning that the release of the four
detainees would endanger his troops
in Afghanistan.
When State Department officials
read Dunfords memo, they realized
he was citing intelligence about a
different group of Afghans who
were more senior Taliban. State
Department officials pointed out
the error, but it was too late. The
transfer was halted.
Sedney,
the
former
deputy
defence secretary, said that there
was broad resistance within the
Pentagon to releasing the four
Afghans because between 30 and 50
percent of the roughly 200 Afghan
detainees repatriated by the Bush
administration had rejoined the
fight. The government of Afghan
President Hamid Karzai often freed
detainees as soon as they returned
home, Sedney said.
The four men were finally flown
back to Afghanistan on Dec. 20,
2014 -- nearly five years after they
were cleared for release. Since
then, none have returned to the
fight, according to U.S. intelligence
officials.
Gul declined a request for an
interview. Zahir, now in his early
60s and one of the three Afghans
considered low-level Taliban, works
as a guard at a school in Kabul.
He said that the primary evidence
against him -- Taliban documents
found in his home -- were from his
work as an administrator in the
Intelligence Ministry when the
northsouth
Taliban ruled Afghanistan.

He said that when American
soldiers flew him to Afghanistan for
release, one spoke with him briefly
before handing him over to Afghan
officials. The American soldier
tapped on my shoulder and said, I
am sorry, Zahir said, adding: I
dont know why they kept me there
for 13 long years without proving
my guilt or crime.
Pentagon obstacles delayed and
nearly derailed other transfers. In
early 2014, Kazakhstan President
Nursultan Nazarbayev offered to
take as many as eight Guantanamo
detainees. The Central Asian leader,
eager for a counterweight to an
increasingly assertive Russia, hoped
to strengthen his relationship with
Washington.
Kazakhstani officials asked to
send a delegation to Guantanamo for
three days to videotape interviews
with prisoners before deciding
which ones to accept. Kazakhstani
psychologists
and
intelligence
experts wanted to study the
interviews for signs of deception.
According to multiple current
and
former
administration
officials, Pentagon officials forbade
the delegation to videotape the
interviews, nixed plans for a
multiday visit, ordered detainee
interviews shortened, and put
new
restrictive
classifications
on documents requested by the
Kazakhstanis.
Senior commanders at Joint Task
Force Guantanamo -- the military
unit responsible for administering
the detention center -- said the
visiting Kazakhstanis would be
allowed one hour with each prisoner
and one day at the detention center.
Allowing taped interviews had
been common practice with foreign
delegations. This time, the Pentagon
banned them on the grounds that
the practice would violate the
Geneva Conventions prohibition on
using prisoners of war for public
curiosity.
After two weeks of failed talks,
the Kazakhstanis said they were
cancelling the visit and wouldnt
take any detainees. An alarmed
White House intervened, ordering
the Pentagon to compromise,
according to current and former
administration officials.
The Kazakhstanis would be allowed
two hours with each detainee, the
Pentagon said, and would be allowed
to stay one night at Guantanamo.
They said the Kazakhstanis would
not be allowed to bring recording
equipment with them. Instead, the
U.S. military agreed to videotape
the interviews and provide the
Kazakhstanis with copies of the
tapes. The Kazakhstanis visited the
prison.
Six weeks later, the Kazakhstanis
still hadnt received the videos. They
were calling us every couple of days,
saying, Where are the videos? said
an administration official.
The White House ordered the
Pentagon to hand over the videos.
The Pentagon complied, and sent the
videos to the State Department, but
with a new classified designation on
it, Secret/NOFORN, which means it
is illegal to share the material with
a foreign country. Administration
officials complained again. Days
later, the video came back with a
more lenient classification. The
video was sent to the Kazakhstanis.
Two days later, the Kazakhstanis
called Washington. The videos had
been processed to look as if it had

been shot through dimpled glass.
For the Kazakhstanis, who wanted
to scrutinize detainees body
language and facial expressions,
the videos were useless.
For a third time, White House
officials intervened to force the
Pentagon to compromise. Finally,
in December, nearly a year after the
process began; the five prisoners
were transferred to Kazakhstan.
In private meetings, some
Pentagon officials have been
dismissive of Obamas policy. After
the president publicly pledged
early this year to respond to a fiveyear-old British request for the
repatriation of British detainee
Shaker Aamer, a senior Pentagon
official mocked that vow at an
interagency meeting on transfers.
We will prioritize him -- right
at the back of the line where
he
belongs,
the
Pentagon
official said, according to an
administration official present
at the meeting. A senior NSC
official snapped back: Thats
not what the president meant.
Aamer was transferred to Britain
in October. In autumn this year,
a foreign government was invited
to Guantanamo to interview eight
detainees for possible transfer -- a
process that can take several days.
General Kellys command, which
oversees Guantanamo, instituted a
new policy, suddenly banning the
delegation from spending the night
at the detention center, according to

administration officials. (Officials
declined to identify countries
involved in transfer negotiations
out of concern that doing so would
jeopardize the process.)
As a result, the delegation was
forced to commute 90 minutes by
plane each morning and afternoon
from Miami, adding tens of
thousands of dollars in government
plane bills to U.S. taxpayers. In
December, the country decided to
take no detainees.
During
another
foreign
delegations visit to Guantanamo
in autumn, Kellys command
further
cut
interview
times
with detainees, to as little as 45
minutes each, making it harder for
foreign officials to assess potential
transfers.
Ba Odah, the hunger-striking
detainee, is now in his late 30s.
Multiple members of the National
Security Council have intervened
to demand that the Pentagon turn
over his complete medical file. The
Pentagon has held firm, citing
patient privacy concerns.
Ba Odahs lawyer, Omar Farah,
said the Pentagons justification is
baseless.
Invoking privacy concerns is a
shameless, transparent excuse to
mask [Pentagon] intransigence,
Farah said. Mr. Ba Odah has
provided
his
full,
informed
consent to the release of his
medical records.
northsouth
March 2016
46
Syrias elusive
The US and Russia have announced a so-called cessation of hostilities in Syria twice as in many
weeks, yet hostilities have continued unabated, writes Franklin Adesegha.
he first proposal for a cessation of

hostilities ended in mid-February
before it even began. The second to
begin on midnight 27 February, if
all goes to plan, is expected to stop
the fighting or at least be drastically
reduced. The so-called International
Syria Support Group (ISSG), a
group of international countries
and organisations hoping to bring a
resolution to the civil war, has been
tasked with finding a consensus on
what constitutes a terrorist group
in Syria. It turns out, however, that
beyond identifying ISIL and al-Nusra
Front as terrorist organisations,
there is little consensus among the
ISSG. The lack of consensus on what
groups in Syria constitute terrorist
organisations is the loophole that
allows Russia to continue its support
for Assads military offensive in
places around Aleppo. Turkey is also
believed to be exploiting that same
loophole to continue shelling the
Kurdish Peoples Protection Units,
YPG. Here is the confusion and chaos
in the Syrian conflict: The YPG is the
armed wing of the Syrian Kurdish
group, the Democratic Union Party
or the PYD. The YPG is fighting and
making gains against ISIL and other
rebel groups in Syria. Yet it is being
attacked by US ally and Russian
adversary, Turkey. The YPG is also
fighting
Russian-backed
Syrian
forces, and is being armed by both the
US and the Russians. The bottom line
is that, in the case of the YPG, the US
47
March 2016
and Russia are essentially fighting

proxy wars against themselves.
Under the Obama administration,
the US influence in the Middle
East appears to be at its lowest in
decades. Analysts refer to the way
President Barack Obama handled
the draw-down from Iraq in 2010,
Washingtons relations with Israel,
and the flawed Iran deal which
left Americas Gulf allies out to dry.
The sum of these policy decisions
has left US commitment questioned
and US influence diminished across
the region, they said. Russia, on the
other hand, has zero credibility at
implementing past ceasefires. Almost
seven years later, Moscow is still
in direct violation of the six-point
ceasefire plan that ended its five-day
invasion of the Republic of Georgia.
The so-called Minsk II ceasefire
agreement in eastern Ukraine is
violated literally every day by Russianbacked separatists. Moscow regularly
eggs on both Azerbaijan and Armenia
over the latters occupation of NagornoKarabakh by selling both sides in the
conflict billions of dollars worth of
weaponry. Knowing Russias dismal
record for supporting ceasefires, it
begs the question why Syria should be
different.
Luke Coffey, research fellow in
transatlantic and Eurasian security
at a Washington-based think-tank,
said Turkey will continue striking the
YPG, Russia will continue striking
the many Salafist Sunni groups
northsouth
fighting against the Assad regime,

while the US and Europe will continue
pretending there is a cozy moderate
third option to support between Assad
on one hand, and groups such as ISIL
on the other. The brutal truth, Coffey
said, is that the civil war has been left
to rot and fester for so long that there
is very little the US or even Russia can
do to engineer a cessation of hostilities,
much less a full-blown ceasefire,
armistice or peaceful outcome.
Coffey recalled that last year,
during the so-called Mink II ceasefire
negotiations, a battle was raging
over control of a Ukrainian city and
strategic railroad junction called
Debaltseve. A ceasefire was finally
agreed for February 15 - but the
Russian-backed
separatists
had
unfinished business in Debaltseve and
continued fighting until they captured
the city on the 18th. The upcoming
cessation of hostilities in Syria will be
no different, he said. Between now and
February 27, Coffey said, Russianbacked Syrian forces will make a lastminute push on Aleppo. If Syrian
forces cannot mop up the defenders
of Aleppo, then Moscow will use its
terrorist loophole to continue the air
strikes.
Without a political will for an
international peacekeeping force and
with no consensus on something as
basic as who is a terrorist and who
us not, the idea that a cessation of
hostilities in Syria can be enforced is
pure illusion. How the cessation of
hostilities will work in practice, and
how it will turn into a more permanent
ceasefire in war-torn Syria, remains to
be seen.
Perhaps the single biggest limiting
factor for peace in Syria is the fact
that the two external power brokers,
the US and Russia, have neither
credibility nor clout in the region.
For the innocent civilians caught in
the fighting, the killing is likely to
continue.
10 Conflicts to Watch in 2016
From Syria to the South China Sea, the conflicts and crises the world will face in 2016 are
numerous, writes Jean-Marie Guhenno president of Crisis Group
ulling together a list of the wars

most in need of international
attention and support in 2016
is challenging for all the wrong
reasons. For 20 years after the end
of the Cold War, deadly conflict was
in decline. Fewer wars were killing
fewer people the world over. Five
years ago, however, that positive
trend went into reverse, and each
year since has seen more conflict,
more victims, and more people
displaced. 2016 is unlikely to bring
an improvement from the woes of
2015: It is war not peace that
has momentum.
That said, there are conflicts
whose urgency and importance
rise above. This years list of 10 is
weighted toward wars with the
worst humanitarian consequences:
Syria and Iraq, South Sudan,
Afghanistan, Yemen, and the Lake
Chad basin. It includes those in
influential and functioning states,
like Turkey, as well as those that
have collapsed, like Libya. It features
conflicts that are already bad but are
poised to get much worse without
intelligent intervention, such as
Burundi, as well as tensions, such
as those in the South China Sea,
that are simmering but have yet
to boil over. The list also considers
the hopeful example presented
by Colombia, where considerable
progress is being made toward
ending a 51-year insurgency.
Half of the conflicts on this years
list involve extremist groups whose
goals and ideologies are difficult to
accommodate through negotiated
settlement, complicating efforts to
plot a path to peace. Looking ahead
to 2016, its time to dispense with
the notion that fighting against
violent extremism suffices as a plan
for world order or even the basis
of a solution for a single country
like Syria. To be sure, stopping the

abominations of the Islamic State
and other jihadis is vital, but it
also exposes policy dilemmas: The
fear of what follows the demise
of authoritarians (Iraq and Libya
being prime exhibits) creates a
strong incentive to back repressive
regimes, but order based solely on
state coercion is not sustainable.
The dramatic increase in the reach
and influence of jihadis over the
past few years is a symptom of
deeper trends in the Middle East:
mounting sectarianism, a crisis of
legitimacy of existing states, and
escalating geopolitical competition,
particularly between Saudi Arabia
and Iran. When the enemy comes
from within a given region, military
action directed from abroad is more
likely to aggravate than assuage.
There is an alternative to this
approach:
States
could
work
pragmatically
at
managing
differences rather than overcoming
them while leaving political space
open for local actors to speak up.
This will require courage, patience,
and creative diplomacy, but the
two most important diplomatic
successes of 2015 the Iran nuclear
deal and the agreement on climate
change give reason to believe
an international approach based
on finding common interests could
work. There are other glimmers of
hope, too: major strides forward in
Colombias peace talks, a cease-fire
in Ukraine bolstered by the Minsk
process, progress in Myanmars
democratic
transition,
and
a
welcome, if long overdue, resolution
from the U.N. Security Council on
Syria.
Most of the conflicts listed here
require action at several levels
between major powers, regionally
and locally and none are
amenable to a quick fix. Given the

challenges of ending conflicts amid
the upheaval of a revolutionary era,
it is all the more urgent to provide
humanitarian aid and to mitigate
the human toll of violence
evidenced starkly in the hundreds
of thousands of refugees who have
fled toward Europe in the past year.
States must also redouble efforts to
forge political agreements, taking
advantage of even the narrowest
openings to find opportunities for
compromise. The fluidity of the
present moment can and must be
used to shape a new, better-balanced
order.
Syria and Iraq
At the close of the year, the war
in Syria is the worlds gravest,
with its effects stretching across
the region and sucking in major
powers. More than a quarter of a
million Syrians have been killed and
almost 11 million about half the
countrys population displaced
in or outside the country. The rise
of the Islamic State, which now
controls a large swath of eastern
Syria and northwest Iraq, has
drawn in firepower from countries
including the United States, France,
the United Kingdom, and Russia.
As yet, however, none of these
countries has articulated a coherent
strategy to defeat the Islamic State.
Worse still, Moscow and Western
powers have been working at
cross-purposes, with Russian jets
bombing anti-Islamic State rebels
that Washington considers partners
against the jihadi group. Syrian
President Bashar al-Assads regime
continues to use indiscriminate
aerial bombardment and other
methods of collective punishment,
inflicting civilian casualties in
Sunni-majority areas that dwarf
the numbers of victims claimed
northsouth
March 2016
48
by the Islamic States violence.

Assads tactics fuel continued
cycles of radicalization, in Syria
in particular, but also across the
region, by fanning sectarian flames
and feeding the sense of Sunni
victimization from which the
Islamic State profits.
The pace of diplomatic action
has quickened, spurred in part by
Russias military intervention in
Syria in September and the Islamic
State-sponsored terrorist attacks
in Paris in November. While the
growing internationalization of the
conflict presents many dangers,
it may also open possibilities for
diplomacy. In December, the U.N.
Security
Council
unanimously
adopted a resolution calling for
a cease-fire and political solution
in Syria. The resolution sets forth
an ambitious timetable, with talks
between the government and the
opposition to start in January;
a Syrian-led political process to
establish credible, inclusive and
non-sectarian governance within
six months; and elections within a
year-and-a-half. Questions about
Assads future which provoke
the most vehement disagreement
between major powers on the
Security Council, rival regional
powers, and Syrian factions
remain unaddressed.
Despite many reasons to be
skeptical, it is worth hoping that
this latest initiative marks the
beginning of a meaningful effort
to resolve the conflict. A conference
in Riyadh in December exceeded
expectations by bringing together
an unprecedented range of the
oppositions armed and political
factions to agree on a negotiating
team. Participants pledged their
commitment to a pluralistic Syrian
future and conditional willingness
to engage in the peace process.
For a national cease-fire to work,
however, there must be a strategy for
dealing with spoilers especially
49
March 2016
al Qaeda affiliate al-Nusra Front,

which is geographically, and often
operationally, integrated into the
non-jihadi opposition in much of
western Syria.
In Iraq, meanwhile, the Western
strategy to defeat the Islamic
State relies largely on military
offensives by Iraqi Kurds, a mostly
Shiite Iraqi army, and Iran-backed
Shiite militias. This risks feeding
the resentment of Sunni Arabs
in areas currently under Islamic
State control. Prime Minister
Haider al-Abadis government is
under pressure from rival Shiite
factions for a host of reasons
including anger over corruption,
the states failure to provide basic
services and security, resistance to
his reform agenda, and intramural
jockeying for power. Shiite militias
are not only fighting the Islamic
State, but have organized to fill
the security vacuum and defend
Baghdad and Shiite holy sites. The
militias partial success resonates
with many unemployed youth, who
have been at the forefront of street
protests. The Islamic State rules
partly through brutal coercion but
also by exploiting fear of the Shiitedominated government and by
empowering formerly marginalized
segments
within
the
Sunni
community. Iraqi forces have spent
months trying to retake Ramadi,
the capital of Anbar province,
after a humiliating withdrawal
last May, and in the last week of
the yearmanaged to finally gain
control of the city. The next priority
will be to oust the Islamic State from
Mosul, the northern city where it is
perhaps best entrenched.
Turkey
Recent photographs from the
southeastern city of Diyarbakir
show young militants with assault
rifles
manning
sandbagged
roadblocks
and
engaging
in
bloody urban battles. Such images
capture a dangerous escalation
northsouth
in Turkeys long conflict with the

Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), a
confrontation that has killed more
than 30,000 people since 1984.
Many factors have fueled the sharp
upsurge in violence following the
end of peace talks last spring and
the collapse of the cease-fire in July.
Turkeys Kurdish movement backs
the PKKs Syrian affiliate, the PYD,
which has made gains in fighting
against the Islamic State. Ankara
worries that cross-border Kurdish
solidarity will further strengthen
demands for a separate state. This
perceived threat has weakened
Turkeys focus on the fight against
the Islamic State, leading many
Turkish Kurds to conclude that
Ankara supports the terrorist group
that is ostensibly their common
enemy.
Over the past six months, the
conflict has escalated to its most
violent point in two decades. Both
sides know that there is no military
solution; however, each wants
to weaken the other as much as
possible while waiting for the Syria
quagmire to settle. To prevent
the Middle Easts ethno-sectarian
violence from spilling further into
Turkey, both sides shouldurgently
end violence, agree on cease-fire
conditions, and restart peace talks.
Free from electoral pressures
for four years, the new Justice
and Development Party (AKP)
government should formulate a
concrete reform agenda to address
demands for Kurdish rights
including
decentralization
and
mother-tongue education that
can be advanced within a democratic
framework.
Yemen
The Saudi-led war in Yemen
backed by the United States, Britain,
and allies in the Gulf has been
grinding on since March 2015, with
no end in sight. U.N.-sponsored
peace talks in Switzerland in midDecember yielded only an agreement
to resume negotiations on Jan. 14.

Nearly 6,000 people have reportedly
been killed, almost half of them
civilians. More than 2 million
people have been uprooted from
their homes; an additional 120,000
have fled the country. The war has
destroyed the countrys already
weak
infrastructure,
deepened
political divides, and introduced
a narrative of sectarianism where
previously there had been little or
none. The conflict threatens the
security of the Arabian Peninsula,
particularly Saudi Arabia itself,
by feeding the growth of terrorist
networks like al Qaeda and the
Islamic State.
The violence has its roots in
a botched political transition
following the departure of longtime
President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who
was forced out amid protests in
2011. After years of indecision
about the countrys political future,
Houthi militias took matters into
their own hands and captured the
capital, Sanaa, in September 2014.
The Houthis a predominantly
Zaydi Shiite movement rooted in
the north began moving south in
alliance with forces loyal to Saleh.
On March 25, 2015, they seized a
strategic military base near Aden
and held the defense minister
hostage. The next day, Saudi Arabia
launched a major military campaign
Operation Decisive Storm to roll
back the Houthi advance and restore
the government of President Abed
Rabbo Mansour Hadi. The Houthis
bear much of the responsibility for
triggering the war, but the Saudiled campaign has only escalated the
violence and thus far proved largely
counterproductive.
Saudi Arabia sees the Houthis
as proxies for Iran. While Irans
role has been minimal, Tehran
has not hesitated to make political
hay of Houthi successes, thereby
further raising the stakes in a
volatile region. The perception
that it is meddling has alarmed

Saudi Arabia, which sees Iran as
ascendant and having hegemonic
ambitions. A peaceful solution to the
Yemen war may well require a prior
accommodation between these two
regional superpowers, currently a
remote possibility.
Libya
The Islamic States apparent
consolidation of its base around
Sirte, on Libyas Mediterranean
coast, has brought fresh urgency
to international efforts to end a
political crisis that has left the
country in a shambles.
Following
NATOs
military
intervention and the ouster of
longtime dictator Muammar alQaddafi in 2011, assorted political
parties, tribes, and militias have
been fighting for power and
control over the nations vast oil
and gas riches. Since mid-2014,
the country has been governed by
two rival factions another way
of saying that no one is really in
charge. A U.N.-brokered deal to
form a national unity government
emerged in December, thanks to
heavy lifting from the United States
and Italy. Members of both factions
signed up, but many powerful
constituents still oppose the deal.
The unity government may not be
able to govern much, especially if
opponents prevent it from taking a
seat in Tripoli.
Meanwhile, lawlessness continues
to take a heavy toll. Thousands
of detainees languish in prisons
without proper judicial review
while kidnappings and targeted
killings are rampant. Libya is also a
major transit hub for refugees and
migrants trying to reach Europe
from other parts of the Middle East
and Africa. The unchecked flow of
arms and fighters through Libya
has fueled conflicts across the Sahel,
including in Mali and the Lake
Chad basin (see below). Western
intelligence officials say that the
impoverished Fezzan region in the

south is swiftly becoming a haven
for criminal networks and radical
groups. On top of all this, economic
collapse looms on the horizon
unless oil production increases and
officials act to maintain the integrity
of Libyas core financial institutions,
which the two rival administrations
have been squabbling over.
The first task for the new Libyan
government, and its international
partners, must be to bring aboard
those Libyans who currently oppose
it. At best, the recently signed
agreement should be seen as a
beginning, not an end, to the peace
process.
Lake Chad basin
Nigeria,
Niger,
Chad,
and
Cameroon face an evolving threat
from the jihadi militant group Boko
Haram. Over the past six years, the
group has transformed itself from a
small protest movement in northern
Nigeria to a powerful force capable
of mounting devastating attacks
across the Lake Chad basin. Last
March, it pledged allegiance to the
Islamic State an affiliation that
appears to have had little impact
beyond improving Boko Harams
online presence.
This past summer, Cameroon
experienced the greatest increase
in attacks by Boko Haram, followed
closely by Niger and Chad. Nigeria,
however, remains the epicenter of
the conflict. Nigerian President
Muhammadu Buhari, who took
office in May, ambitiously pledged
to end the insurgency by December.
While this remains a distant goal,
Buhari a former army major
general has shaken up his
countrys security establishment
and joined with regional forces to
drive Boko Haram from the areas in
northeastern Nigeria it had seized
earlier in 2015.
Boko
Haram
is,
however,
resilient, adaptable, and mobile.
Military efforts, to date, have had
northsouth
March 2016
50
limited success in countering its

use of suicide bombers, who are
often young women and girls. Its
terrorist attacks on remote and
unprotected villages and even on
regional capitals, like NDjamena
continue. Indiscriminate responses
by state security forces and
insufficient efforts to win over the
affected communities only pour fuel
on the fire. Regional governments
are still failing to address the
factors
behind
radicalization.
Decades of political corruption,
festering grievances, and poor
access to basic social services have
bred deep anger and alienation.
These issues are compounded
by rapid population growth and
environmental degradation, which
drive social tension and migration.
South Sudan
Yet again, the worlds newest
country is at risk of descending
into full-blown civil war. The peace
agreement reached between the
government and the largest armed
opposition group in August after
intensive African-led mediation is
on the brink of collapse. Meanwhile,
independent armed groups outside
the deal are proliferating.
The roots of the conflict date back
to internecine competition among
various factions during South
Sudans decades-long independence
struggle.
South
Sudan
won
independence from Sudan, only to
explode into civil war on Dec. 15,
2013, as divisions within the ruling
Sudan Peoples Liberation Movement
led to fighting and targeted ethnic
killings in the capital of Juba. Only
hours after the conflict erupted,
tens of thousands of people sought
refuge at U.N. bases to escape ethnic
massacres and sexual violence.
Today, nearly 200,000 people live
under the direct protection of U.N.
peacekeepers.
Over the past two years, more
than 2.4 million people have been
displaced, and tens of thousands
51
March 2016
have been killed. A report released

by the African Union in October
detailed atrocities by both sides,
including mass killings and rapes.
Now, with an increasing number
of the countrys more than 24
armed groups aligned with neither
the government nor the main
opposition forces, the prospect of
a multipolar war is real. Regional
actors, especially members of the
Intergovernmental
Authority
on Development (IGAD), which
mediated the peace agreement, and
international powers, including
IGAD partners China, Norway,
the United States, and the United
Kingdom, must take urgent, united
action to push South Sudans leaders
to respect their commitments to the
peace deal and avert a catastrophic
return to war.
Burundi
Almost daily, dead bodies appear
on the streets of Bujumbura, with
the circumstances surrounding
their deaths often unknown. More
than 300 people have been killed
since last April, when President
Pierre
Nkurunziza
announced
plans to seek a third term in office
despite
widespread
opposition.
Nkurunzizas re-election in July,
following a failed coup attempt,
sparked a season of confrontation
between
government
forces
and armed opposition fighters.
Escalating violence raises fears of
a return to conflict after a decade
of relative peace. At least 300,000
people died during Burundis 12year civil war, which ended in 2005
after dogged peace-building efforts
led by former Presidents Julius
Nyerere of Tanzania and Nelson
Mandela of South Africa.
In December, the African Union
Peace and Security Council took the
bold step of authorizing an African
Prevention and Protection Mission
in Burundi to halt the slide toward
civil war and mass atrocities.
Nkurunziza reacted angrily and
northsouth
said Burundians would stand up

and fight against foreign troops.
The African Union has reached out
to the government and is calling
on both sides to cooperate with
peace talks, with the next round
scheduled for Jan. 6. It is not clear
if the African Union has sufficient
member support to impose a mission
against the will of the Burundian
government.
The humanitarian situation is
dire. More than 200,000 people
have fled the country, and U.N.
officials have warned that without
immediate action there is a risk of
catastrophic violence. So far, the
crisis is more political than ethnic.
However, some leaders appear to
be exploiting ethnic divisions, and
there is a risk of mass atrocities if
violence continues unchecked. It
also threatens to further destabilize
the fragile Great Lakes region, with
increasing numbers of refugees
fleeing to Rwanda, Tanzania, and
the Democratic Republic of the
Congo.
Afghanistan
U.S. President Barack Obamas
endgame in Afghanistan seems
ever more remote, as the country
remains mired in conflict more than
14 years after the United States
intervened to oust the Taliban and
destroy al Qaeda. Today, the Taliban,
despite internal splits, are still a
formidable force; al Qaeda maintains
a presence, and the Islamic State
has established a foothold. A shortlived breakthrough in Pakistanbrokered peace talks last July was
scuttled after opponents of the
talks disclosed that the Talibans
reclusive leader, Mullah Mohammed
Omar, had died in 2013. The Taliban
eventually confirmed these reports
and announced that longtime
deputy Mullah Akhtar Mohammad
Mansour had taken over. Mullah
Mansour, who reportedly has
close ties to Pakistans intelligence
services, consolidated his leadership
position with a string of military

victories, including the temporary
capture of Kunduz in late September.
Yet factionalism continues to bedevil
the Taliban movement. Unconfirmed
reports surfaced in early December
indicating that Mullah Mansour
may have been injured or killed in
a firefight with rivals in Pakistan.
A handful of field commanders
throughout the year declared
allegiance to the Islamic State.
Fighting
across
multiple
provinces continues to inflict heavy
civilian casualties one reason that
Afghanistan is second only to Syria
as a leading source of refugees.
Rampant corruption and abuse of
power by local authorities continue
to be the chief drivers of support for
the insurgency. The United States
now says that it will maintain troop
levels at 9,800 for most of 2016, and
NATOs Resolute Support Mission
is committed to providing financial
support for Afghan security forces
until 2020. But given the potency of
the insurgency, there is clearly no
military solution to the conflict. And
the splintering and proliferation
of militant groups threaten future
efforts to broker peace. President
Ashraf Ghanis attempts to resume
negotiations with the Taliban
are controversial and strain the
cohesion of his national unity
government. For talks to succeed,
they must be broadly Afghan-led
and owned, and driven more by
the interests of the Afghan people
than by those of powerful external
players like Pakistan and the United
States.
South China Sea
The South China Sea risks
becoming a theater of big-power
competition, as the United States
challenges Chinas large-scale land
reclamation and construction on
several disputed reefs. Chinas
aggressive assertion of its territorial
claims sets it on a collision course
with several Southeast Asian
nations with competing sovereignty

claims in one of the worlds busiest
waterways, an area rich with
fisheries and possible oil and gas
reserves. Tensions flared in May,
when a U.S. spy plane flew near
Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly
archipelago,
where
China
is
building an airfield. U.S. Defense
Secretary Ash Carter called for an
immediate and lasting halt to land
reclamation in the disputed area
and announced that the United
States will fly, sail, and operate
wherever international law allows.
In October, a U.S. Navy warship
approached another disputed reef
in the Spratlys, prompting a sharp
rebuke from Beijing that the action
was illegal and posed a threat to its
national security. In November,
Obama announced an aid package
worth $259 million over two years
to boost the maritime security
of
Vietnam,
Indonesia,
the
Philippines, and Malaysia, all rival
claimants to China.
In what could prove a landmark
case, a tribunal in The Hague is
considering an arbitration request
filed by the Philippines accusing
China of violating international
law in the South China Sea. Beijing
refuses to participate or accept the
courts jurisdiction, but the case
could still help unite international
opinion and nudge China toward
greater cooperation. A decision is
expected in 2016.
Beijing should realize that its
use of sharp elbows diminishes
confidence
in
regional
selfgovernance and encourages its
neighbors to turn to the United
States for protection. In turn,
Washington must use its words
and actions to defend the global
commons and support multilateral
diplomacy, rather than merely
asserting its military supremacy.
The Association of Southeast
Asian
Nations
should
drive
negotiationswith China to commit
all parties to a code of conduct to

manage maritime disputes before
small ripples grow into big waves.
Colombia
Peace talks in Havana between
the Colombian government and
the Revolutionary Armed Forces
of Colombia (FARC) achieved
a series of breakthroughs in
recent months, raising hopes
that the country may finally see
an end to its 51-year-old armed
conflict in 2016. The conflict has
claimed the lives of an estimated
220,000 people; 50,000 have been
disappeared, and a staggering
7.6 million people have registered
as victims of the conflict.
In December, the two sides
announced a milestone agreement
on
transitional
justice,
one
of the toughest issues on the
agenda. They had previously
reached agreements with some
matters left open for discussion
on rural development, political
participation, and drug policy.
President Juan Manuel Santos
has declared an ambitious March
23 deadline for reaching a final
agreement, but he has pushed
back the date for a bilateral ceasefire. Sensitive questions continue
to dog the disarmament and
reintegration of rebel forces, as
well as monitoring mechanisms
to ensure implementation. Other
complex issues include how to
confirm the peace agreement:
The government has committed
to a popular vote, while the FARC
has long called for a constituent
assembly. A smaller rebel group,
the National Liberation Army
(ELN), must also join the peace
process. And the huge challenge
of healing the scars left by decades
of war in a country still plagued by
illegal armed groups remains.All
that said, there are positive signs
that the continents longest-running,
and last-remaining, armed conflict
will soon come to a conclusion.
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March 2016
52
Britain agonises over EU referendum
Opinion polls suggest that the British public are fairly evenly split, on whether they should leave the European
Union, following the announcement by prime minister David Cameron that a referendum will be held on 23 June,
writes Franklin Adesegha.
he United Kingdom Independence are young and keen to work, fuels Greens, Plaid Cymru and other parties
Party, UKIP, which won the last economic growth and helps pay for that got less than 5% of votes cast in
European elections, and received public services. They also believe May will be limited to 700,000. Who
nearly four million votes - 13% of Britains status in the world would be is going to be leading the rival sides in
those cast - in Mays general election, damaged by leaving and that they are the campaign has yet to be decided, but
campaigns for Britains exit from the more secure as part of the bloc. Will here are the main groups of either side
of the argument:
EU. About half of Conservative MPs, Britain be better in or out?
Britain Stronger in Europe - the
Big business, with a few exceptions,
including five cabinet ministers,
several Labour MPs and the DUP are tends to be in favour of Britain staying main cross-party group campaigning
also in favour of leaving. They believe in the EU because it makes it easier for Britain to remain in the EU,
Britain is being held back by the EU, for them to move money, people headed by former Marks and Spencer
which they say imposes too many and products around the world. BT chairman Lord Rose. It is seen as
rules on business and charges billions chairman Sir Mike Rake, a recent CBI certain to get the official Electoral
of pounds a year in membership fees president, says there are no credible Commission designation to head the
for little in return. They also want alternatives to staying in the EU. Remain campaign.
Vote Leave campaign - A cross-party
Britain to take back full control of But others disagree, such as Lord
its borders and reduce the number of Bamford, chairman of JCB, who says campaign that grew out of Business for
people coming here to work. One of an EU exit would allow the UK to Britain, headed by former Conservative
the main principles of EU membership negotiate trade deals as our country chancellor Lord Lawson. Key figures
is free movement, which means you rather than being one of 28 nations. include former Conservative adviser
dont need to get a visa to go and live in Many small and medium-sized firms Dominic Cummings and Matthew
another EU country. They also object would welcome a cut in red tape and Elliott, who ran the successful No2AV
to the idea of ever closer union and what they see as petty regulations. campaign and has the backing of
any ultimate goal to create a United The British Chambers of Commerce the five cabinet ministers and other
says 55% of members back staying Conservatives such as Boris Johnson
States of Europe.
Prime Minister David Cameron in a reformed EU. The Electoral and Priti Patel. It also has the backing
wants Britain to stay in the EU, now Commission is in charge of making of Labour Leave, which is headed by
he has got some powers back from sure its a fair contest. It will select a Labour donor John Mills.
Grassroots Out Movement - An
it. Sixteen on his cabinet also back designated lead campaign for both the
group
including
the
staying in. The Conservative Party leave and remain sides. The official umbrella
has pledged to be neutral in the campaigns will get access to a grant of relatively new Grassroots Out group
campaign - but the Labour Party, SNP, up to 600,000, an overall spending - founded by Conservative MPs Peter
Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems are all limit of 7m, campaign broadcasts, Bone and Tom Pursglove and Labour
in favour of staying in. According to free mailshots and free access to MP Kate Hoey in January.
Leave.EU - Funded by UKIP donor
polls, the public seem pretty evenly meeting rooms. Other groups are free
split on the issue. They believe Britain to run their own campaigns but they Arron Banks and other business
gets a big boost from EU membership will be limited to a spend of 700,000 people, it has the backing of
- it makes selling things to other EU if they register with the Electoral longstanding Eurosceptic groups,
countries easier and, they argue, the Commission and will have to report some Conservative MPs and UKIP,
flow of immigrants, most of whom the source of donations. If they dont plus others such as the former Respect
register with the Commission they MP George Galloway. The Electoral
will be limited to spending less than Commission is expected to make its
10,000. The Electoral Commission decision on which group will head the
has published a guide to the rules. Leave campaign within weeks of the
The spending limit for political parties referendum date being announced.
depend on the percentage of the vote It will judge each applicants merits
on the basis of a range of criteria,
they received at the general election.
The Conservatives have the highest such as level of cross-party support,
spending limit - 7m - because they got campaign tactics and organisational
the most votes at the general election. capacity. As it stands, nobody knows
Labour is limited to 5.5m, UKIP the outcome. Suffice it to say, it could
4m and the Lib Dems 3m. The SNP, go either way.
53
March 2016
northsouth
environment
Polar bear numbers to plunge 30 per cent, study

Polar bear populations are likely
to fall by more than 30 percent
by around mid-century as global
warming thaws Arctic sea ice,
experts said on Thursday in
the most detailed review of the
predators to date. The report, by
the IUCN (International Union for
Conservation of Nature), estimated
there are between 22,000 and
31,000 polar bears in the Arctic
and said they will be increasingly
vulnerable as their habitat shrinks.
Climate change will continue
to seriously threaten polar bear
survival in the future, Inger
Andersen, IUCN Director General,
said of the study, based on updated
counts and new projections of sea

ice since a previous review in 2008.
It said there was a high
probability that the global polar
bear population will decline by more
than 30 percent over the next 35
to 40 years, broadly reaffirming
findings from 2008.
Andersen urged almost 200
nations, meeting at a U.N. summit
on climate change in Paris
from Nov. 30-Dec. 11, to restrict
greenhouse gas emissions to
slow the melt. The IUCN groups
scientists, governments and other
experts.
Polar bear numbers have risen
some regions in recent years
because of better protection and

bans on hunting, but estimates
of overall populations from past
decades are vague. The shrinkage
in sea ice, which in September 2012
was the most severe since satellite
records began, will make it ever
harder for polar bears to catch
seals that live on the ice, the report
said.
The IUCN said a Red List of
animals and plants that it compiles
found that 23,250 species were
endangered of 79,837 assessed
so far. Polar bears are listed as
vulnerable, the least endangered
category on a scale that ends with
extinct.
Record heat would not be happening without human influence

Last yearsrecord heatmarks the
latest in a string of more than a
decade of hot years.
Scientists
believe 2016 will be even hotter.
Record temperatures are irrefutable,
but that does not mean everyone
agrees that man-made climate
change has caused them.
Global
warming
skeptics
attribute
record
temperatures
tonormal variationsin the Earths
atmosphere.Most
scientistshave
long said that the skeptical
explanation may be theoretically
possible, but it is incredibly
unlikely. Now, new research shows
54
March 2016
just how unlikely the explanation

is. The odds that 13 of the 15
warmest years on record would
have occurred between 1998 and
2014 without human influence
stand at somewhere between 1 in
5,000 and 1 in 170,000, according
to newresearchfrom scientists at
Pennsylvania State University and
elsewhere. The chances become even
slimmer when including 2015s
record temperatures.
2015 is again the warmest year
on record, and this can hardly be by
chance, said study author Stefan
Rahmstorf of the Potsdam Institute
for Climate Impact Research in a
press release.
Natural climate variations just
cant explain the observed recent
global heat records, but man-made
global warming can.
The study, published in the journal
Nature Scientific Reports, relies on
northsouth
historical data and computer models

to project the likelihood of record
temperatures. The researchers took
into account that years of
record temperatures are likely
to
occur
together
asclimate
patternsoftenextend from one year
to another.
The research adds to growing
confidence
among
scientists
that humans have driven global
warming by emitting carbon dioxide
from fossil fuels that traps heat in
the atmosphere. The most recent
report from the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, the United
Nations scientific body charged
with assessing the science on global
warming, says that the body is 95
per cent sure that humans are the
primary cause of warming. Many
climate scientists have criticized
the bodys assessment as too
conservative.
nnovatons
Touch sensitive
bionic arm
House built from

shipping containers
Motorbike hits
water at 40mph
Researchers have developed a new

kind of interface that can convey
a sense of touch from 20 spots on
a prosthetic hand. It does this by
directly stimulating nerve bundles
known as peripheral nervesin the
arms of patients; two people have
so far been fitted with the interface.
The implants continue to work after
18 months, a noteworthy milestone
given that electrical interfaces to
nerve tissue can gradually degrade
in performance. The Scientists at the
Cleveland Veterans Affairs Medical
Center and Case Western Reserve
University in the United States say
these breakthroughs in connecting
electronic devices through the
nervous system can eventually
enable everything from artificial
limbs to sensory organs like eyes
and ears.
The central living space covers an

area of 100 square metres (1,076
square feet) and acts as the focal
point of the building, delimited
by the containers stacked up
around it a plain wood and glass
staircase enables residents to get
from one floor to another. Incubo
was inspired by a desire for a space
that would stimulate the desire to
create, explain the developers. A
versatile place to converge all forms
of creativity. A study to promote and
build teamwork, where collaborations
flow... It was intended as a nice place
to stay, work and even play. [It] works
like a home, office, studio, gallery,
event venue, and whatever your
imagination wants.
This stylish amphibious machine

allows thrill-seekers to whiz down
the shore then, with the flick of a
switch, plunge into the waves and
zoom off. The Biski has a 55hp
twin cylinder petrol engine capable
of 80mph on the roads and its twin
propulsion jets can hit up to 34
knots (40mph) on water. A specially
designed hull keeps water out of
the important components and the
vehicle could be particularly useful
in flood areas.
Microwave with
internet connection
The compact Maid microwave oven

comes with a smart dashboard
and an Internet connection, which
means it can download recipes
and instructions from the Web and
make sure that your food is always
cooked to perfection. Built to make
cooking simple, social and fun, the
Maid oven is suitable for those who
are clueless in the kitchen as well
as those who want more help with
Health monitoring
bathroom
The bathroom of the future

becomes a perfect place for health
diagnostics, thanks to what I call
active digitality the production
of data for further use, says Paul
Flowers, who is the Senior Vice
President of Design at GROHE. The
visualisation of health data in the
bathroom will play an important
role. We have large expanses of glass
and ceramics; there are mirrors
and other surfaces onto which the
information can be projected in the
form of icons or plain text messages.
Even some kind of audio feedback is
imaginable.
planning calorie intake and diets (the

associated software can recommend
some healthy eating options for you)
cooks of all ages and abilities can
make use of it. Recipes and cooking
instructions can be displayed right
on the ovens interface, and prices
start at $369 (231).
northsouth
March 2016
55
busnessbrefs
Chinese web giants make 827m offer for Opera

Opera still has a lot of value -- at
least it does to one consortium
of Chinese companies, who have
offered 827 million to buy it
outright.
The Norwegian company said
it had received the offer of 10.3
billion Norwegian Kroner from a
group led by Kunlun and Qihoo
360, and backed by investment
firms Yonglian and Golden Brick.
The valuation represents a
premium of around 53 percent
above Opera's current trading price
at the point the offer was made.
Opera's board appears positive on
the deal, and CEO Lars Boilsesn
said in a statement that "there is
56
March 2016
strong strategic and industrial

logic to the acquisition of Opera by
the Consortium".
"The Consortiums ownership
will strengthen Operas position to
serve our users and partners with
even greater innovation and to
accelerate our plans of expansion
and growth," he said in a statement.
Opera was founded in 1995, but
despite recurrent trendiness among
users desiring an alternative to
Google, Microsoft and Apple's
market-leading
browsers
has
struggled to gain mainstream
adoption. The company isn't just a
minority desktop browser, however.
It does better on mobile and in
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developing markets thanks to its

ability to compress websites before
loading, and also has a growing
advertising business that relies
largely on its video compression
technology.
Of Opera's $193.5 million fourth
quarter revenue in 2015, mobile
advertising drew in $145 million
-- 60 percent of which was video
advertising. Its revenue as a whole
is up 25 percent year on year,
though profits remain relatively
slim. The company has been
looking for a buyer for some time,
having said in August 2015 that it
received interest from a number of
potential partners.
Total value of world property is $217 trillion- 2.7 times world's GDP
Add up all the property in the entire

world, and you get $217 trillion
(152.2 trillion) of assets, a new
report has suggested - that's 2.7
times the world's GDP.
"To give this figure context, the
total value of all the gold ever
mined is approximately $6 trillion,

which pales in comparison to the
total value of value of developed
property by a factor of 36 to one,"
said Yolande Barnes, head of Savills
world research.
The research, by Savills, showed
residential property makes up by

far the biggest portion of real estate,
worth $162 trillion.
Homes also have the largest
"spread of ownership" - ie. the the
largest number of owners - with
approximately 2.5bn households.
Portuguese borrowing costs

surge to highest since 2014
Apple to launch new iPhone and

iPad in March
Apple is on target to introduce its
next iPhone and iPad models on
March 15, and aims to start selling
the devices in the same week,
technology blog 9to5Mac reported,
citing sources.
Apple, which will introduce a
new 4-inch iPhone, dubbed the
"iPhone 5se", and a new iPad Air at
a launch event, is unlikely to take
pre-orders for the new devices, the
blog reported.
The technology giant has hit a
trough in iPhone demand. The 0.4

percent rise in shipments in the
fiscal first quarter was the slowestever increase in iPhone sales since
the phone was launched in 2007.
The new 4-inch iPhone 5se is
designed to spur iPhone hardware
upgrades for customerseeking
faster devices without upgrading
to the far larger iPhone 6s and
6s Plus screen sizes. Apple could
not be immediately reached for
comment.
Portuguese government borrowing

costs have shot up to their highest
level since 2014. The interest rate
on the governments 10-year bonds
rose above 4.4 per cent today before
falling back to 4.1 per cent. It was
2.5 per cent at start of the year. The
new left-wing government which
took over last year has promised
to roll back on Brussels-imposed
austerity measures. However, in
a Portuguese budget approved
last week by the European Commission, austerity will be harsher
this year than in 2015.
France to build 1000km

of road with solar panels
France is planning to build 1000
kilometers of road with specially
designed solar panels. This project
will supply 5 million people in France
with electricity if it is successful.
Though many solar experts are
sceptical about this project, the
French government has given the go
ahead for this venture.
northsouth
March 2016
57
$100 trillion by 2025: the digital dividend

for society and business
The combined value to society
and industry of the digitization
that is already occurring in every
industry could generate upwards
of $100 trillion over the next 10
years, with society set to gain
more than business. However, this
transformation also brings with it
risk, according to new research by
the World Economic Forum.
With digitization affecting every
industry and creating new ways
of capturing and creating value,
the research, which is part of the
Forums Digital Transformation of
Industries (DTI) project, focuses
on the combinatorial effects of
digital technologies mobile, cloud,
artificial intelligence, sensors and
analytics, among others.
Examples
of
societal
value
generated by digitization include
mass adoption of autonomous
vehicles
and
usage-based
car
insurance, which could save up
to 1 million lives a year worldwide
by 2025. In the electricity sector,
a cumulative reduction in carbon
emissions worth $867 billion by
2025 could be achieved through the
adoption of digital technologies,
principally through smarter asset
planning. The pace of innovation can
be illustrated by the fact that, while it
used to take Fortune 500 companies
an average of 20 years to reach a
billion-dollar valuation, digital startups are reaching the same milestone
in just four years. The research
suggests that, once limitations
preventing
the
mass-market
commercialization
of
enabling
technologies such as battery storage
and wireless charging are overcome,
the pace of change could accelerate.
However, the digital transformation
of industries comes with risks
attached that will require careful
management by all stakeholder
groups. One such risk is inequality,
which could be exacerbated if access
58
March 2016
to digital skills is not made available

to all. Another is trust, which has
been eroded by growing concerns
over data privacy and security. This
will only be overcome with improved
norms of ethical behaviour.
When it comes to business, benefits
are by no means guaranteed.
Conservative corporate cultures and
short-termism combine, for example,
to discourage many businesses
from taking radical steps to disrupt
their own industry by embracing
new technologies. One example is
electricity distribution, where few
utilities have actively embarked
on cannibalizing their legacy
businesses by offering subsidized
renewable technologies such as
solar. This represents a missed
opportunity, according to the DTI
research produced in collaboration
with Accenture as the pace and
scale of societal gains from digital
could be greater if driven by the
innovation of incumbents than by
the disruption introduced by new
entrants
Society and the environment
stand to gain the greatest share
of the rewards from digitization
through improvements to welfare,
health and other means. To capitalize
fully, however, policy-makers must
put in place an agile regulatory
environment
and
incentive
mechanisms that unlock investment,
while businesses must fully embrace
sustainable business practices. There
is a win win for business and society
if we can look beyond immediate
commercial gain in favour of long
term value creation, said Mark
Spelman, Co-Head, Future of the
Internet Initiative, World Economic
Forum.
This in-depth industry analysis
proves that there can be no business
strategy today without digital
strategy. Being digital means being
ready to go beyond technology
northsouth
investments to embrace wider

organizational and cultural change,
said Mark Knickrehm, Group Chief
Executive,
Accenture
Strategy,
Accenture, USA. To succeed,
business leaders must be able to
balance existing capabilities with
big-bet investments in entirely new
digital business models. And they
must be prepared to take risks with
partners across industry borders,
he said.
The DTI initiative serves as the
focal point for new opportunities and
themes arising from digitization.
It has been informed by over 230
expert interviews from business,
government and academia and
engagement with more than 100 of
the Forums Partner organizations.
The complete set of findings can be
found at http://digital.weforum.org.
About the Digital Transformation
of Industries project
In 2015, the DTI project had two
areas of focus. It developed detailed
perspectives on the impact of digital
technologies across six sectors
automotive, consumer industries,
electricity, health, logistics and
media to identify key digital
drivers and trends, outline industryspecific opportunities and risks, and
calculate the sector-specific valueat-stake for business and society.
The project also identified common
digital patterns across industries
and investigated key questions
about them. The four cross-industry
themes identified were Digital
Consumption, Digital Enterprise,
Societal Implications and Platform
Governance. In 2016, the initiative
will focus on the impact of digital
transformation on an additional 10
industries, further deep-dives into
industries from this years project,
and examine a number of crossindustry topics such as platform
governance, societal impact, and
policy and regulation.
Experts launch bid to strengthen global trade at Davos

The World Economic Forum and
International Centre for Trade and
Sustainable Development released a
sweeping set of proposed reforms to
international trade and investment
rules and institutions.
The new report outlines a pathway
for better aligning and eventually
reintegrating the worlds spaghetti
bowl of regional free trade and
investment agreements, as well as
for adapting rules and institutions to
recent changes in the world economy,
such as global value chains, the
digital economy, services, climate
change, Sustainable Development
Goals, etc.
The report of the E15 Initiative,
Strengthening the Global Trade
and Investment System in the
21st Century, takes a long-term,
systemic perspective. It makes
proposals for the evolution of not
only trade law and institutions
but also trade-related aspects of
international development, financial,
environmental, agricultural, labour
and technological cooperation over
the next decade to 2025. The report
also proposes a series of structural
improvements to the World Trade
Organization (WTO).
The new proposals come on the
heels of the WTO ministerial meeting
in Nairobi in December 2015,
where governments failed to reach
agreement on a continuation of the
Doha Round of trade negotiations in
its current configuration, effectively
suspending a process that had been
deadlocked for over a decade. That
outcome has left the international
community without a shared vision
and with growing concerns about
a system that is fragmenting and
facing fundamental questions of
legitimacy and effectiveness.
For over two years, the World
Economic
Forum
and
the
International Centre for Trade and
Sustainable Development facilitated
an extraordinary multistakeholder
and multidisciplinary process that

engaged 375 experts from around
the world in 15 Expert Groups and
three cross-cutting Task Forces,
in partnership with 16 other
institutions. The process has yielded
a comprehensive set of proposals
that have been summarized in a
synthesis report prepared by the
two convening organizations and
detailed in accompanying thematic
papers.
The E15 Initiative proposals
include sets of measures that
would support progress on many
of the international communitys
paramount
shared
priorities,
including:
- Boosting global growth
and employment
- Reducing commercial friction
and investment uncertainty
- Accelerating sustainable
development in leastdeveloped countries
- Increasing economic
diversification and competitiveness
in middle-income countries
- Ensuring food security
- Combating climate change and
environmental degradation
- Preserving national policy
space to make societal choices
- Strengthening the legitimacy
of the global trading system
The process will continue in 20162017 in a worldwide dialogue on
the implications of this blueprint
on how trade strategy is set and
administered
in
countries,
as
well as globally, including how
improvements
in
international
cooperative architecture could help.
E15
Knowledge
Partners
include the International Food
and Agricultural Trade Policy
Council (IPC); the Inter-American
Development Bank (IADB); the World
Trade Institute (WTI); the Evian
Group@IMD; Chatham House; the
Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES);
Swedens National Board of Trade;
the National School of Development,

Peking University; International
Institute for Sustainable Development
(IISD); Climate Strategies; the
Graduate
Institute,
Geneva;
Bruegel; the European University
Institute; Center for International
Development at Harvard University;
and the Southern Voice on Post-MDG
International Development Goals.
MySpace
acquired by Time
Time Inc has acquired Viant, a USbased ad tech company and the the
owner of former social media king
MySpace. The media company,
which publishes titles such as
Sports Illustrated and In Style,
said it was a "game changer".
Marketers are selecting media
partners that have either datadriven capabilities or premium
content; we will be able to deliver
both in a single platform, and will
stand apart from those that offer
just one or the other. In other
words, we will be able to deliver
advertisers messages targeted to
optimal audiences across all types
of devices, along with the ability to
measure ROI," said chairman and
chief executive Joe Ripp.
Viant also operates Specific
Media, Vindico, Xumo and other
ad technology companies.
MySpace was bought up by
Specific Media and pop star Justin
Timberlake for $35m in 2011, from
NewsCorp, which paid $580m for
it in 2005.
China losing confidence

of global lenders
The Institute of International
Finance, has warned that China
is rapidly losing the confidence
of global lenders and that capital
outflows risk turning virulent if the
current policy paralysis continues.
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March 2016
59
Cautious Optimism for 2016 Global Economy

Global growth in 2016 will be modest
and uneven, according to Christine
Lagarde, Managing Director of the
International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Global growth is estimated at 3.4%
(it was 3.1% in 2015) and 3.6% in
2017. We see global growth in
2016 as modest and uneven, said
Lagarde. There is modest optimism
but significant risks.
These downside risks include the
profound transition of the Chinese
economy, lower-trending commodity
prices as a result of oil prices and
asynchronous monetary policies
around the world. Lagarde said
the global economy is presenting a
completely different picture that
is changing. This is due to growth
in India and China and a downturn
in Russia and Brazil. She pointed
to the financing for development
agreement reached in Addis Ababa,
the Sustainable Development Goals
and the Paris Climate Agreement
(COP21) as significant events that
will result in changes in our
economies.
Europes economy is in better shape
at 1.5% growth, but Lagarde pointed
to two major concerns: potential
Brexit and the refugee crisis. If the
refugee crisis is handled well and
the integration process is conducted
in a cohesive and organized way, it
will be an upside for growth, she
said.
Another bright spot on the
global stage is India, with 7.5%
expected growth. However, people
are still living in poverty, said
Arun Jaitley, Minister of Finance,
Corporate Affairs and Information
and Broadcasting of India. We
need a high growth rate sustained
over a long period of time, he said.
Oil prices have been helpful in
sustaining the countrys growth, but
shrinkage of exports is a concern.
The government has a list of highpriority reforms, including tax
reform including a lower goods
60
March 2016
and services tax and bankruptcy

law.
Japans economy grew 1% to
1.5% in the current fiscal year. The
corporate sector reported highlevel profits, the labour market is
becoming tighter and unemployment
is at just 3%, according to Haruhiko
Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of
Japan. The inflation rate remains
at zero, but the economy has been
making a moderate recovery. We
will expect this growth to continue
for some time and inflation could
improve substantially once oil prices
start to bottom out, he said.
The world has changed a lot since
the financial crisis in 2008, said
Tidjane Thiam, Chief Executive
Officer, Credit Suisse, Switzerland,
a Co-Chair of the World Economic
Forum Annual Meeting 2016.
There is no worry about contagion
risk with banks, he said. This is
a huge tick for the central banking
system. Look at our total capital; we
will be holding $4 trillion. Even if
there is a good degree of commotion,
the system can withstand it. We
can look forward to a normalized
environment.
The worst start to any year on
the record of financial markets
three weeks into 2016 was driven
by several factors, including fears
about a hard landing for China.
The market is very worried about
China, Thiam said. We believe
China will have a soft landing.
There was consensus that the
markets had overreacted to China.
Lagarde said the transition of the
Chinese economy, moving from
industry to services, from exports
to the domestic market, and from
investment to consumption is a
massive undertaking. We forecast
China to be at 6.8% growth in 2015,
she said. For those who pretend to be
surprised, it was expected this is a
good way to facilitate the transition.
Martin Wolf, Associate Editor and
northsouth
Chief
Economics
Commentator,
Financial Times, United Kingdom,
commented: The basic lesson is
not to be worried about markets; we
have some big issues, but the United
States, Europe and China look okay
and they are the core of the world
economic system. So, it should be
alright cheer up.
US and Europe fail

to meet deadline for
data transfer deal
American and European officials
failed last month to reach an
agreement over how digital data
- including financial information
and social media posts - could
be transferred between the two
regions. Despite last-minute talks,
the two sides remained far apart
on specific details required to
approve a comprehensive deal.
Alphabet surpasses
Apple as world most
valuable company
Fueled by the iPhone, Apple passed
Exxon Mobil in 2011 to become the
most valuable public company in the
world, worth around $350 billion.
But now Google parent company
Alphabet has taken away that title
from Apple, now becoming the most
valuable company at about $544
billion last month.
Countries signed up
to the MCAA
Australia, Germany, Nigeria, United
Kingdom, Austria, Greece, Norway,
Belgium, Ireland, Poland, Chile Italy
Portugal, Costa Rica, Japan, Slovak
Republic, Czech Republic, Liechtenstein,
Slovenia, Denmark, Luxembourg,
South Africa, Estonia, Malaysia, Spain,
Finland, Mexico, Sweden, France,
Netherlands. Switzerland.
Moody's puts 10 European utilities

companies on negative watch
Credit ratings agency Moodys has

put 10 European utilities companies
on negative watch, as they must
contend with a harsher business
environment
amid
tumbling
commodity prices and ultra-low
wholesale power prices.
It includes London-listed Centrica,
which the ratings agency said is
vulnerable to low prices through
its exposure to gas production and
electricity generation.
Big six energy company E.on
was also placed on negative watch,
reflecting expectations that its
earnings will fall more greatly when
hedges against low prices begin to
run off after 2016 and 2017.
similarly, hedges rolling off over

the next two to three years will affect
French energy giant EDF's credit
metrics. Moody's added this could
exacerbate the risks associated with
hinkley Point C and the planned
acquisition of French nuclear
developer Areva.
It follows the rating agency's
review of the European utility
companies' exposure to a weakening
commodity
and
power
price
environment.
Wholesale
gas
prices
have
crumbled over the last year. this
came as milder temperatures ate into
demand, crude oil prices to which
seasonal gas contracts are indirectly
linked fell and pressure mounted on
power companies to pass on savings
to customers.
other companies placed on
negative watch include the Czech
republics CEZ, Denmarks Dong
Energy, Estonias Eesti Energia,
Frances EnGIE, Germanys rWE,
the uKs Vattenfall and Austrias
Verbund.
Ex bank chief seeks

ban on high value
bank notes
Peter sands, former chief executive
of standard Chartered bank, has
said that removing the euro 500
note, $100 bill and 50 note from
circulation, governments could
make life harder for criminals.
With cash still very much king in
the underworld of terrorists, drug
lords and tax cheats, a new paper
has called for the abolition of the
currency of the elites.
EasyJet to trial first

hybrid plane
the airline EasJet has unveiled
plans to trial zero-emission
hydrogen technology. the FtsE
100 carrier is planning to become
the first airline to test a socalled hybrid plane, which uses
hydrogen fuel cells that could
potentially cut its fuel bill by as
much as $35m.
Chart shows global markets fall in 2016

Depending on your view, the world
is on the brink of yet another
global recession or in the process of
having a bit of a confidence wobble.
Either way, markets have suffered
badly.
Analyst David Buik, at Panmure
Gordon, has ranked the worst-
performing global markets so far

this year.
And although Chinese markets
have made the headlines so far this
year, it is Milano Italia Borsa (MIB)
which has fared the worst, falling
24.4 per cent since the beginning
of the year.
Meanwhile, the FtsE 100 has

come off relatively unscathed,
falling a mere 8.84 per cent.
the figures do not take into
account last months falls, but do
give an indication of quite how
bad things are looking for equities
traders.
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March 2016
61
India overtakes China as world's

fastest growing economy in 2015
India's economy has overtaken
China's to become the world's fastest
growing large economy, according
to figures published by the country's
Central Statistics office showing
the economy grew 7.3 per cent in
the final three months of the year
compared with the same period in
2014. It marks a slight slowdown
from the three months to September
when the economy grew 7.4 per
cent.
China's annual economic growth
was 6.8 per cent over the final three
months of the year.
The data rounds off a year in
which official figures have put
Indian economic growth ahead of
Chinese economic growth in every
quarter.
However, many have been led to
question the quality of the official
data in both countries.
Lombard Street Research, a
consultancy,
believes
China's
economy expanded by 3.3 per cent
year-on-year in the final three

months of 2015. That figure was
up from 2.8 per cent in the three
months to September.
Indian consumer confidence has
fallen 8.8 per cent over the past
year, according to survey figures
published today by MNI Indicators.
The firm's consumer sentiment
index rose marginally in January to
109.8, but is far below its long term
average.
"This was the first increase in
the MNI India Consumer Sentiment
Indicator since August last year and
in that respect it is most welcome.
Whether it marks an end to the
sharp decline in sentiment seen
throughout 2015 is another matter,
said Philip Uglow, chief economist
at MNI indicators. Last month,
Uglow said the "decline in consumer
sentiment serves as a warning that
all is not well in the Indian economy
and leads us to question in part the
strength of the official GDP data."
Financial crimes cost UK $80 billion a year

Financial crimes are costing the
United Kingdom (UK) economy
$80 billion (52bn) every year, but
88 per cent go unreported, it has
been revealed.
Speaking
at
the
Wealth
Management Associations (WMA)
annual Financial Crime Conference
in London, a fraud expert has
warned that financial crimes
pose a serious risk to individuals,
charities and public services, as
well as the wealth management
sector.
James
Phipson,
commercial
director of the Economic Crime
Directorate at the City of London
Police cited figures from the
National Fraud Authority (now
part of the National Crime Agency)
Annual Fraud Indicator report,
which found losses from financial
62
March 2016
fraud rose steadily year after year.

He added that most of this fraud
activity appeared to originate in
Spain.
The National Crime Agency
has now set up a Joint Money
Laundering Intelligence Taskforce
intended to share intelligence
between the police and financial
services institutions in an effort to
stamp out crimes including fraud,
rates rigging, and cyber-theft.
Liz field, the WMA's chief
executive, said: Financial crime
is a huge threat, not only to the
wealth management industry, but
to the UK economy as a whole. As
weve heard from law enforcement
professionals, cooperation between
the financial services industry
and the authorities is crucial to
combating this crime, so I hope
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31 countries
signed up to OECD
tax co-operation
agreement
The OECD has announced that
31 countries have signed up to a
new tax co-operation agreement
to enable automatic sharing of
country-by-country information.
Representatives from the 31
countries, which include the UK,
Ireland and Australia, signed the
Multilateral Competent Authority
Agreement (MCAA) at a ceremony
today.
Country-by-country Reporting
will have an immediate impact
in boosting international cooperation on tax issues, by
enhancing
the
transparency
of
multinational
enterprises
operations, said OECD secretarygeneral Angel Gurra.
Under
this
multilateral
agreement,
information
will
be
exchanged
between
tax
administrations, giving them
a single, global picture on the
key indicators of multinational
businesses."
Gurria said the MCAA was a
"much-needed tool towards the
goal of ensuring that companies
pay their fair share of tax", and
added that it would not have been
possible without the Base Erosion
and Profit Shifting Project.
The new agreement comes in the
wake of public anger over the tax
arrangements of big companies.
Google recently agreed to pay
130 million ($200 million) to
Britains tax authorities (HMRC)
to settle claims dating over the last
10 years - a move that has been
criticised as being too lax on the
internet giant.
many more institutions will do

their utmost to work together
against this shared adversary.
China ramps up patent

activity as Europe
falls behind - IAM
IEA warns of "false dawn" over

oil price optimism
The International Energy Agency
(IEA) has warned that recent
optimism over the future direction
of oil prices could in fact be a false
dawn.
The Paris-based organisation said
it has major doubts over the five
drivers of a recent bounce in oil
prices, leading to a revision of its
forecast for future oil output.
Business survey data points to US
economy stagnation
The US economy is currently
stagnating, according to business
survey figures released today.
The sales managers index (SMI)
compiled by World Economics
dropped to a score of 50.8 in February
from 51.1 last month. Scores
above 50 imply the economy grew
compared with the month before,
with Februarys score pointing to
very sluggish growth.
Business confidence was at a
three-and-a-half year low as both the
manufacturing and services sectors
lost momentum.
The February SMI Index paints a
gloomy picture for the US economy
and indicates a continuation of the
slowdown in the rate of economic
growth which began in the second
half of 2015, said World Economics
chief executive Ed Jones.
He added that the survey suggests
that economic conditions are likely
to be challenging for the remainder
of Q1 [January to March] 2016.
The SMI sales index, which
measures demand conditions facing

individual firms and has a close
correlation with GDP growth, stayed
in contraction territory for the third
month in a row. World Economics
said it indicated negative growth
as the first quarter of the year
progresses.
The US economy grew at an
annualised rate of 0.7 per cent in
the final three months of the 2015,
a sharp slowdown from two per cent
in the previous three months.
The US Federal Reserve raised
interest rates in December for the
first time since the 2008-9 recession.
Some economists have argued that
the recent negative data and stock
market declines mean the central
bank may have to backtrack.
However, Federal Reserve chair
Janet Yellen said financial conditions
had become less supportive of
growth, but pointed out that the
labour market was still in fine fettle.
Some economists share Yellens
overall optimism and are blaming
the slowdown on seasonal factors.
Part of the weakness reflects
seasonal adjustment winter
quarters have averaged lower
figures in every year recently due
to harsher winters. It is a statistical
artefact and the Bureau of Economic
Analysis is reviewing its adjustment
methods. But markets will still take
fright, said Danae Kyriakopoulou,
an economist at the Centre for
Economics and Business Research.
Global firms must disclose tax plans, EU

US
multinationals
such
as
Google, Facebook and Amazon
will be forced to publicly disclose
their earnings and tax bills in
Europe, under legislation being
drafted by the EU executive. The
European commission is to table
legislation in early April aimed
at making the worlds largest
multinational corporations open
their tax arrangements with EU

governments to full public scrutiny.
The commission president, JeanClaude Juncker, is said to be in
favour of the initiative.
A consensus has formed around
making the rules apply making the
rules apply to the worlds biggest
conglomerates, including those
from the US, the officials said.
China has cemented its position

as the worlds most prolific patentfiler after lodging 928,000 applications in 2014, stoking fears of
Chinese patent-holders launching high profile court cases. Patent applications grew by 12 per
cent in China between 2013-14 as
state-backed financial incentives
and higher spending on research
saw firms flocking to seek legal
protection for their inventions, according to data compiled by intellectual property magazine IAM.
Joff Wild of IAM said the quality
of Chinese patents is often inferior
to those granted in Europe and the
US, leaving many Chinese firms at
the mercy of litigious patent trolls.
EU probes rigging
of debt market
European regulators have opened
a preliminary cartel investigation
into possible manipulation of the
$1.5 trillion government sponsored
bond market, in the latest efforts to
root out rigging involving financial
traders. The European Commissions
early-stage inquiry comes amid
revelations that the US Department
of Justice and the Financial Conduct
Authority are also investigating the
market.
Putin to sell state

companies to plug
budget hole
Russia is lining up seven major
state companies, including Aeroflot,
Alroasa, the diamond miner, and
Rosneft, for potential privatization
as the Kremlin debates drastic
options to replace dwindling oil
revenues. The decision to consider
the first such comprehensive
push in years comes as the latest
slide in crude prices is expected to
drive Russia into a second year of
recession and has ripped a gaping
hole in its budget.
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March 2016
63
Eurozone exports climb 5% in 2015 as sales to the US soar

The value of goods and services
exported by the Eurozone climbed
by five per cent last year compared
with 2014. The currency-bloc sold
167.5bn (129.6bn) of goods to
the rest of the world in December,
taking the 2015 total to 2.04
trillion, according to data released
this morning by Eurostat, the
statistical office of the EU. Imports
rose by two per cent over the year
to 1.79 trillion. It means that the
Eurozones large trade surplus grew
even bigger last year to 246bn
from 184bn in 2014. While sales
to specific export markets are
not available for the 19-member
Eurozone, they are available for the
28-member EU.
EU sales to the US shot up 19 per
US
China
Switzerland
Russia
Turkey
EU 28 exports
to (bn)
369.6
170.4
150.8
73.9
79
Growth on
2014 (%)
19
4
8
-28
6
cent last year while sales to China

rose by just four per cent. Exports
to Russia dropped by a whopping 28
per cent as the country maintained
trade embargoes on EU goods.
The data also suggest that net
trade may have contributed less to
growth toward the end of the year.
Weakened December traded goods
data reinforce suspicion that net
trade was of little help to Eurozone
GDP growth in the fourth quarter,
EU imports
from (bn)
246.2
350.3
102.2
135.9
61.6
Growth on
2014 (%)
19
16
6
-25
13
said economist Howard Archer

from analysts IHS. While Eurozone
exporters have had appreciable
help from a very competitive
euro, the upside for exports has
been constrained by muted global
growth. The Eurozone economy
grew by 0.3 per cent in the final three
months last year, as it maintained a
gradual recovery from a double-dip
recession. The EU's biggest trade
partners last year
Iran's economy gears up for $50bn investment boom

Hopes of a surge in trade between
Iran and the West are high after
the removal of nearly all economic
sanctions which have left the country
isolated. The hard-fought deal means
the opening up of a $400 billion
(280bn) economy, sitting on vast
fossil fuel reserves, with a youthful
population of close to 80 million.
Iranian president Hassan Rouhani
expects there will be $50 billion in
international investment and finance
in this year alone. GDP growth will
run at over 4 per cent annually from
this year until 2020, up from a dismal
0.8 per cent in 2015, according to the
International Monetary Fund. Full
implementation of the deal, which
was reached with China, Russia,
the US, UK, Germany and France,
will take six months. There are still
some prohibitions in place over trade
between the US and Iran. But the
immediate effect will be in having
$32 billion of frozen assets returned
to Irans central bank and treasury,
out of a total $100 billion in assets
that were put on ice. The biggest
opportunity for Western businesses
will be in Tehrans financial services
sector, which has been starved
64
March 2016
of investment through years of

isolation. Turkey and United Arab
Emirates are being tipped as the
countries which will most heavily
invest in Iran. Trade between Turkey
and Iran could double. But not all of
this is going to be Turkish money.
As a country on the cusp of both
Europe and the Middle East, Turkey
may prove a convenient base for
international companies to set up
businesses which will then invest in
Iran. But if Iran wants investment,
it will have to play by the rules not
just under the supervision of the
nuclear chiefs, but also with regard
to the norms of global business.
For a country where around 20
per cent of GDP is in the hands of
the state and religious entities, it
may be some time before outsiders
feel confident - both in knowing they
can both invest wisely, and get their
assets out when they want to.
For ordinary Iranis, change
cannot come soon enough. In a
survey of 300,000 Iranis undertaken
by FTI Consulting, 77 per cent said
they struggled to meet everyday
needs or could only buy basics. 53
per cent say increasing employment
northsouth
should be the governments number

one priority, while 72 per cent
expect the nuclear deal will do just
that. In the meantime, a spurt of oil
supplies on the world market will be
the first sign that Iran is back. The
country has stockpiled 30m-40m
barrels of oil in floating tankers,
just waiting for the green light
to be shipped. The International
Energy Agency expects Iran will
be pumping out 300,000 barrels a
day within weeks, rising to 500,000
later this year. Tehrans hopes are
for higher exports still, of up to
2m barrels daily. Question marks
have risen over Irans ability to
meet these projections, given its idle
infrastructure. But with elections
coming up in February, president
Rouhani will want to press on with
anything that could improve the
economy. The realisation that the
Iran deal would actually go ahead
was the trigger for oil prices to fall
below $30 last month. But now, the
real risk to oil prices now is that
Iran exceeds its production targets
further bloating global supplies and
increasing tensions within OPEC.
These were biggest selling

smartphone brands of 2015
Apple and samsung's growth was

overtaken by huawei, Lenovo and
Xiaomi in 2015.
three smartphone brands grew
at a faster pace than Apple and
samsung last year as sales across
the world hit a record 1.4 billion.
Chinese smartphone makers
huawei, Lenovo and Xiaomi grew
more than the world's two biggest
smartphone brands as shipments
increased by 10 per cent across
the board.
the rise of device makers
in China signals increasing
competition for samsung and
Apple, which reported a slowdown
in sales.
"usually the conversation in
the smartphone market revolves
around samsung and Apple, but
huawei's strong showing for both
the quarter and the year speak
to how much it has grown as an
international brand," said Melissa
Chau, senior research manager
from research firm IDC which
tracks the figures.
"While there is a lot of
uncertainty around the economic
slowdown in China, huawei is
one of the few brands from China
that has successfully diversified
worldwide, with almost half of its
shipments going outside of China.
huawei is poised to be in a good
position to hold onto a strong
number three over the next year."
Apple's year-on-year growth
was less than one per cent, but it
Global developments to impact on UK growth in 2016
managed to grow market share

to 16.2 per cent, up from 14.8
per cent last year. It was second
only to samsung when it comes
to market share, which grew to
21.4 per cent from 19.9 per cent
in 2014. Year-on-year shipments
were up 14 per cent.
Apple grew 18 per cent in China,
however, and half of those were
new iPhone customers.
"With initial Apple shipment
estimates all over the map, Apple
assured the public that demand for
its premium smartphones is still
alive and kicking," said Anthony
scarsella, research manager at
IDC. he continued:
"to combat Apple at the highend, competing vendors will need
to bring value to consumers to
stay relevant in the market.
With heavy saturation in many
mature
smartphone
markets
such as the us, Europe, and
China, many vendors have placed
a renewed focus on pushing
premium-looking mid-tier devices
as a new value proposition to
consumers in both developed and
emerging markets.
samsung has found success in
this segment with its A-series,
and huawei with its honor brand.
We expect similar devices to
appear in 2016 from a variety
of vendors that will focus
on affordable value without
neglecting
performance
and
aesthetics."
the European union (Eu) referendum, the economic slowdown in

China, the volatility in global markets and the ongoing turmoil in
the Middle East will impact on the
united Kingdoms (uK) growth in
2016, according to a report by the
accountancy firm BDo. Global economic fears and uncertainty over
the Eu referendum have pushed
business confidence to a threeyear low while the economic slowdown in China, volatility in global
markets and turmoil in the Middle
East are all starting to take their
toll on the previously resilient uK
economy. the impending Eu referendum, expected as early as June,
is also fuelling uncertainty for uK
businesses looking at their longterm prospects. so far the government has done a good job in sheltering the uK economy from global
storms but there is more that could
be done, Peter hemington, partner
at BDo, said. For instance, one
small but helpful thing that the
government could do would be to
introduce a zero rate of VAt on companies that supply to exporters as
currently happens in Ireland. this
would boost uK manufacturing
and encourage more trade abroad.
BDo's Business optimism Index,
which predicts growth over the
coming six months, has declined to
100.0. this is the tipping point below which firms expect their output
growth to drop under the long-term
trend rate, and the falling optimism
suggests GDP growth will drop below the long-term trend. the indices
are calculated by taking a weighted
average of the results of the uK's
main business surveys and incorporates the results of the quarterly
CBI Industrial trends survey, the
Bank of England's Agents' summary and the Market/CIPs Manufacturing and services PMI Data. BDo
also identifies the poor performance
of the uK's manufacturing sector,
as weighing down the uK economy
in the short-term.
northsouth
March 2016
65
arts
&
Netflix conquers more

than 130 countries
entertanment
Delacroix and the Rise of Modern

Art at the National Gallery
The National Gallery in London is
staging a major exhibition under
the theme Delacroix and the Rise of
Modern Art from 17 February-22
May 2016.
From the bold colours and
abstract
shapes
ofMatisseand
Kandinsky, to the expressiveness
ofVan GoghandGauguin, to the
vibrant complementary colours of
theImpressionists. All can be traced
back
toEugne
Delacroixthe
last painter of the Grand Style but
equally one of the first modern
masters, who transformed French
painting in the 19th century.
Delacroix and the Rise of Modern
Art is a long-overdue homage
to Frances leading exponent
ofRomanticism a true original
who, at the time of his death in
1863, was the most revered artist
among the avant-garde in Paris.
Drawing inspiration from British
art and literature, his real and
imagined travels to North Africa,
and biblical scenes; every chord
of human passion can be found in
Delacroixs paintings stories of
love, murder, violence, and war.
66
March 2016
The first merit of a painting is to be

a feast for the eye, he emphasised
towards the end of his life.
Placing
Delacroix
alongside
contemporaries
such
asCourbetandChassriau,
this
exhibition traces 50 years of
Delacroixs
legacy,
exploring
the profound impact he had on
generations of artists to come.
This exhibition is organised in
collaboration with theMinneapolis
Institute of Art.
In January 1832, Delacroix
travelled in his capacity as an artist
on a diplomatic mission to Morocco,
where he stayed for six months.
Prior to undertaking this journey
he had painted so-called Oriental
subjects from imagination. The
results were somewhat stylised, a
testament to the strength of mid19th-century cultural stereotypes.
Experiencing North Africa for
himself transformed Delacroixs
depictions of it. He began to infuse
his subjects with a vibrancy and
energy that reflected his belief that
what he was painting was a living
antiquity, where the culture
and dignity of the people echoed
the world of the Ancient Greeks
and Romans. The vibrancy of the
resulting
pictures
encouraged
later
artists,
includingPierreAuguste Renoirto journey to North
Africa too. A comparison between
Convulsionists of Tangier of 1838
and Renoirs Arab Festival of
1881 highlights both Delacroixs
northsouth
TV streaming giant Netflix has

gone global by launching in 130
new countries.
However, China remains one
big target of the network, Chief
executive Reed Hastings told
delegates at an electronics show
in Las Vegas: Today you are
witnessing the birth of a new global
internet TV network, Consumers
from Singapore to St Petersburg,
from San Francisco to Sao Paulo
will be able to enjoy TV shows and
movies simultaneously.
He said he would have to be
very patient regarding a launch
in China. Viewers saw 12billion
hours of video in the past three
months, a 50 per cent rise on
2014.
innovations and his influence.

While in Morocco, Delacroix
sketched the annual procession of
the Assaoua, a mystic brotherhood
of Sufi Muslims. During the
procession, members of the group
entered a trance-like state of
religious fervour. This is ostensibly
the subject of Convulsionists of
Tangier, painted five years after
Delacroix returned from Morocco.
The artist commented that the
interval between witnessing the
scene and painting it meant that he
had forgotten the petty details so
as to recall only the most striking
and poetic aspect. He suggests
the impression the scene made on
him through bold composition,
extravagant gestures, and strong
colours.
Arab Festival by Renoir was
painted after the artist had watched
festival-goers surround a group of
dancers and musicians in Algeria.
They are depicted in a near-abstract
frenzy of brushstrokes and colour.
The similarity of their execution
suggests that Renoir was reminded
of Delacroixs Convulsionists of
Tangier when he painted the scene.
Bands cut off noses

to spite Spotify royalties
A troop of musicians are following

pop-icon Taylor Swifts (pictured)
lead in rallying against Spotifys
paltry royalty offerings. When
an artist signs up with the musicsharing platform, they are given
precisely 0.007 for every time their
track is played, provided it lasts
longer than 30 seconds.
In a move that can only be
described as cutting off nose to spite
face, 90s rockers and lesser-known

musicians are collaborating on an
album with a staggering 100 songs,
where each track is 30 seconds long.
The Pocket Gods, the late 90s rock
band spearheading the initiative,
have sent a declaration of their
intent to The Capitalist, saying it
is a statement against Spotify who
pay out a paltry 0.007p per stream
for any track over 30 seconds. Why
waste time and money writing
longer songs? You cant fault that
logic.
The album, 100X30, is due for
release on 4 December, featuring
half-minute protest songs from all
your faves including David Mindel,
the Eurovision songwriter whos
2015 entry was said to have all the
charisma of a soggy lettuce by one
Independent critic.
Mobile games hit $34.8bn in 2015

Games generated approximately 85
per cent of mobile app marketrevenue
in 2015, representing a total of $34.8
billionacross the globe, according
to a report on the app economy by
market researcherApp Annie.
The data is part of a larger report
by App Annie on the growth of
all mobile apps. The overall app
economy is expected to grow from
$51 billion to $101 billion by 2020.
That report also says that games will
hit $41.5 billion in 2016 and reach
$74.6 billion by 2020. And if you add
up all of the game-related revenues in
all sectors, you wll find that gaming
has become monstrously big around
the world.
The growth in gaming will come
fromstrong monetization in mature
markets,especially Chinas tier-one
and tier-two cities, as well growth
inJapan and South Korea. It is
worth noting that other sources of
forecasts have different outlooks
for gaming, and they slice the data
in different ways.Tech advisorDigiCapital expects the game-software

industry to grow 22 per cent from $90
billion a year in 2016 to$115 billion
a yearby 2020. Digi-Capitalsaid
that the game industry continues
a big transition as market leaders
are consolidating their positions as
different sectors ebb or grow. The
growth rate is healthy, but it is not
as big as in past years as the overall
industry becomes more mature.
Meanwhile, market researcher
EEDAR estimates that the total
console software and hardware
market
revenues
were
$44
billion in 2015. AndJon Peddie
Researchestimates that worldwide
PC gaming hardware sales will grow
from $24.6 billion in 2015 to $26.1
billion in 2016. PC gaming hardware
is expected to grow to $30 billion by
2018. The Open Gaming Alliance
says that it expects PC gaming
software to increase from $26 billion
in 2014 to $35 billion by 2018.
Easy Virtue in French

Art1850 1910 at
Van Gogh Museum
In collaboration with Muse
dOrsay, the Van Gogh Museum
is
going
to
present
the
exhibitionEasy Virtueabout the
representation of prostitution
in French art during the period
between 1850 and 1910, from 19
February until 19 June 2016. It is
a theme that has never before been
presented in an exhibition on such
a grand scale.
Over 100 paintings and works
on paper by more than 40 different
artists including big names like
Van Gogh, Degas, ToulouseLautrec and Picasso, will be on
view at the Van Gogh Museum
in Amsterdam, The Netherland.
Curious objects, for instance
police records, and other material
and a 19th-century bed of state
(pictured) will also be on display.
The exhibits include loans
from
international
museums
and private collections, the vast
majority of which have never been
shown before in the Netherlands.
Interesting historical curiosities
will also feature, including police
records, 19th-century porn and
a whip that once belonged to the
famous courtesan Valtesse de la
Bigne.
During the museums popular
Friday Evening events, Jake
Credits performers will offer an
enticing translation of the theme
to the present day.Easy Virtue:
Prostitution in French Art, 1850
1910runs until 19June 2016.
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March 2016
67
travel
&
toursm
Chinese tourism has worrying

implications for Hong Kong, study
Shifting demand patterns are
expected to benefit Australia and
the United States, to the detriment
of destinations closer to the
Chinese mainland.
The number of tourists from
mainland China visiting Hong
Kong and Macau is set to fall
sharply in 2016, according to a
report published by brokerage and
investment group CLSA.
The study predicts that Chinese
outbound tourism will grow at
an average 9% per annum from
2016 to 2020, compared with
approximately 20% over the past
five years. It also forecasts that
in future, Chinese mainland
tourist trips will be less driven by
shopping: a key driver of visits to
Hong Kong.
Longer-haul destinations such
68
March 2016
as Australia and the United States

are becoming more popular with
Chinese citizens whose security
and safety concerns are weakening
demand for visits to France.
The Hong Kong branch of CLSA
based its report on panel surveys
of tourists from various regions
of China. It identifies Australasia
as the largest growth region for
Chinese tourists in the period
2014-2020.
This is of concern to Hong Kong
International Airport, which is
adding a third runway, as its
share of Chinese tourist trips will
drop from 42% at its peak in 2012
to 27% in 2020. Macau - a short
ferry ride from Hong Kong - will
find that its share is set to drop
from a peak of 25% in 2008 to 14%
in 2020.
northsouth
Top 20 safest airlines

in the world 2016:
Air New Zealand
Alaska Airlines
All Nippon Airlines
American Airlines
Cathay Pacific Airways
Emirates
Etihad Airways
EVA Air
Finnair
Hawaiian Airlines
Japan Airlines
KLM
Lufthansa
Qantas
Scandinavian Airline System
Singapore Airlines
Swiss
United Airlines
Virgin Atlantic
Virgin Australia
Atlanta breaks 100 million passenger barrier

Despite worries over a sluggish
economy and terrorism, major US
airports reported record passenger
traffic for 2015.
Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta laid
claim to the title of the busiest airport
in the world for the 18th consecutive
year by processing 101.49 million
passengers in 2015, with a 5.52%
year-on-year increase. In the process,
it became the first airport to serve
more than 100 million passengers
in a single year. Airport officials say
Atlanta also handled more aircraft
movements than any other airport
worldwide, with 882,497 takeoffs
and landings in 2015 (a 1.63% yearon-year increase).

Chicago OHare displaced Los
Angeles into second place with an
almost 10% year-on-year increase to
76.95 million passengers. Growth
was driven by an 11.6% increase
on
domestic
routes,
whereas
international
traffic
improved
by a relatively sluggish 2.3%.
International takeoffs and landings
decreased by 5.95% (reflecting the
trend for long-haul carriers to use
larger aircraft), and overall aircraft
movements fell by 0.77% to 794,684.
Los Angeles set a new record with
Plane can eject entire cabin in emergency

Engineers
have
designed
passenger
planes
with
a
detachable cabin, claiming it
could save the life of everyone
onboard if the aircraft gets into
trouble.
The radical plans have been
revealed in a video which shows
the cabin being released from the
aircraft and floating down to the
ground on huge parachutes.
On
landing,
inflatables
protrude from the bottom so the
passengers can land smoothly on
either earth or water. Tatarenko
is the mastermind behind the
design and has been working on
this project for the past three
years.
According to the designer the
plane offers the chance to save all
onboard by releasing the entire
thing from the engine.
Vladimir Tatarenko, aviation
engineer, said: Surviving in a
plane crash is possible. While

aircraft engineers all over the
world are trying to make planes
safer, they can do nothing about
the human factor. The existing
technology of using of Kevlar and
carbon composites for fuselage,
wings, flaps, spoilers, ailerons,
tail will be used during the design.
It allows to partly compensate
the weight of parachute system.
In the design, passengers
luggage is stowed under the
cabin so it lands with them. But
the designs have caused mixed
reactions. One person commented:
Of the millions of flights a year,
less than 500 people die worldwide
a year from plane crashes.
While another had concerns
too, adding: This whole concept
dramatically weakens the airframe
because now you have joints and
fittings to connect a fuselage and
a body together where once you
had a whole fuselage to reinforce
the airframe.
However,
a
questionnaire
conducted by the inventor found
that 95 per cent of people would
be willing to buy a more expensive
ticket in order to use such a safety
system.
74.9 million passengers despite

slipping to third place. The airport
welcomed 8.5% more international
travellers (20.7 million). Domestic
traffic grew by 5.1%. Aircraft
operations at Los Angeles increased
by nearly 3% to 655,564 takeoffs
and landings in 2015.
San Diego International remains
the second-busiest single-runway
airport in the world behind LondonGatwick in the United Kingdom.
The California airport handled more
than 20 million passengers for the
first time, with all but 700,000 of
this total using domestic airlines
Global tourism hits

record 1.2bn in 2015
International tourism grew by 4.4
per cent last year to a record 1.184
billion as calculated by overnight
visitors to international destinations,
50 million more than in 2014, and
the sixth consecutive year of aboveaverage growth, UN World Tourism
Organization (UNWTO) has reported.
The robust performance of the
sector is contributing to economic
growth and job creation in many
parts of the world. It is thus critical
for countries to promote policies
that foster the continued growth of
tourism, including travel facilitation,
human resources development and
sustainability UNWTO SecretaryGeneral Taleb Rifai said. Results
from the UNWTO Confidence Index
remain largely positive for 2016,
though at a slightly lower level
compared to the previous two years,
with international tourist arrivals
projected to grow by four per cent.
Such arrivals have now increased
by four per cent or more every year
since the post-crisis year of 2010. By
region, growth in 2016 is expected
to be stronger in Asia and the Pacific
and the Americas by four to five per
cent, followed by Europe with 3.5
to 4.5 per cent, and Africa and the
Middle East
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March 2016
69
science news
Barbecued meat linked to kidney cancer
A diet high in barbecued meat may

increase the risk of developing
kidney cancer, scientists have
found. The new study comes just
a week after the World Health
Organisation warned that red and
processed meats are carcinogenic
and people should limit their
intake. Around 10,000 people are
diagnosed with kidney cancer each
year in Britain, and more than
4,000 will die.
The most common kind is renal
cell carcinoma. When meat is
cooked by flame grilling or frying
it produces the carcinogens, PhIP
and MeIQx.
The kidney filters many harmful
toxins from the body so scientists
speculate it could be at increased risk
of developing cancer as it attempts
to rid the body of the carcinogens.
Researchers from the University
of Texas looked that the eating
habits of 659 people suffering from
renal cell carcinoma and compared
them to 699 healthy subjects.
"We found elevated cancer risk
associated with both meat intake
and meat-cooking carcinogens,
suggesting independent effect of
70
March 2016
meat-cooking carcinogens on RCC

risk," said Dr Xifeng Wu, professor
of epidemiology and senior author
of the study. "Our findings support
reducing consumption of meat,
especially meat cooked at high
temperatures or over an open flame
as a public health intervention to
reduce RCC risk and burden.
The results show that kidney
cancer patients consumed more
red and white meat comparetd to
healthy individuals. They found
that high levels of PhIP increased
the risk of kidney cancer by 54 per
cent while large amounts of MeIQx
doubled the risk.
Researchers also discovered that
individuals with specific genetic
mutations are more susceptible to
the harmful compounds created
when cooking at high temperatures,
such as pan frying or barbecuing.
Individuals with variations in the
gene, ITPR2, were more vulnerable
to the effects of consuming PhIP.
By analysing genes known to
be associated with RCC risk, we
found that high intake of these
carcinogens may be particularly
meaningful for a certain subgroup
of the population," said Dr
Stephanie Melkonian, lead author
of the study.
The researchers do not suggest
that individuals should remove
meats
completely
from
their
diets, but rather consume it in
moderation, as part of a wellbalanced diet, complete with fruits
and vegetables. When grilling
or pan-frying meat, try to avoid
charring it as much as possible,
they suggest.
The research was published in
the journal Cancer.
northsouth
Tea prevents tooth

decay, researchers
Researchers have suggested that
just four or five cups a day could
provide your teeth with enough
fluoride to protect them from
decay. Nutritionists who analysed
49 types of British teabag found
just a few cups contained all
the enamel-protecting minerals
you need. The average Briton is
believed to consume 876 cups of
tea a year, enough to fill two bath
tubs. Overall 165 million cups of
tea are drunk each day by Britons,
making a total of 60billion cups of
tea a year. The research also said
that the perfect cup of tea bag
should be left to infuse for two to
four minutes, while loose leaves
should be six minutes.
Female brain not

wired for weight
loss, scientists
For women, shedding the pounds
can feel like a unending struggle
of dieting and exercise with little
results. But a new study suggests
that there could be a reason why
females find it more difficult to
lose weight than men. Researchers
say hormones responsible for
regulating
appetite,
physical
activity and energy expenditure
work differently in the sexes.
Working with teams from the
University of Cambridge and the
University of Michigan, they used a
mouse model to study how weight
gain differs in each sex depending
on physical activity and energy
expenditure. During the study,
researchers were able to transform
obese male into lean, healthy mice,
but the same transformation did not
occur in the female mice.
Indigestion drugs linked to dementia
A popular type of indigestion and

heartburn pill taken by millions of
Britons could increase the risk of
dementia by 44 per cent, according
to a study.
The drugs work by lowering
the amount of acid produced by
the stomach and are prescribed to
millions of Britons every year for
heartburn, acid reflux or peptic
ulcers. The German study was
based on the insurance data of
74,000 people over 75 from 2004 to
2011. It identified 29,510 patients
who developed dementia during

the study period. But among the
2,950 of the total who regularly
took PPIs, a greater proportion
had dementia, giving them a 44
per cent increased risk compared
with those who had not taken
PPIs, the Daily Mail reported. The
scientists, from the German Centre
for Neurodegenerative Diseases in
Bonn, acknowledged that they had
been unable to identify different risk
factors for dementia.
They wrote in the journal JAMA
Neurology: "The present study can
only provide a statistical association
between PPI use and risk of
dementia. The possible underlying
causal biological mechanism has
to be explored in future studies.
"The avoidance of PPI medication
may contribute to the prevention of
dementia." Separate US research by
Stanford University last year found
a possible link between PPIs and

heart attacks.
Dr Laura Phipps of Alzheimer's
Research UK said: "This study
doesn't tell us definitively that the
drugs directly cause the condition.
The next step will be to investigate
the possible reasons for this link."
John Smith, of the Proprietary
Association of Great Britain, which
represents firms making overthe-counter drugs, said: "All overthe-counter medicines have been
approved by the Medicines and
Healthcare Products Regulatory
Agency and are rigorously assessed
for safety and efficacy. "Once on the
market, their safety is continually
monitored in light of any emerging
evidence.
Those who may be concerned
should speak to their GP or
pharmacist before taking any
medicine."
Scientists develop cancer vaccine

A
revolutionary
new
cancer
treatment that remembers the
disease and acts like a watchman to
prevent it ever returning is being
developed by scientists.
Researchers
are
engineering
immune cells so that they not only
boost the bodys own natural defences
to fight tumours, but stand guard
for a lifetime - acting effectively
like a vaccine. Scientists say it is
like having a "living drug", which is
constantly vigilant to the return of
cancer and quickly removes it from
the body. A new study, presented at
the American Association for the
Advancement of Science annual
meeting in Washington, has proven

for the first time that engineered
"memory T-cells" can persist in the
body for at least 14 years. Professor
Chiara Bonini, a haematologist at
San Raffaele Scientific Institute and
Vita e Salute San Raffaele University
in Milan, said: T-cells are a living
drug, and in particular they have
the potential to persist in our body
for our whole lives.
Imagine when you are given
a vaccine as a kid and you are
protected against flu or whatever
for all of your life. Why is that? Its
because when a T-cell encounters the
antigen and gets activated, it kills
the pathogen but also persists as a
memory cell. Imagine translating
this to cancer immunotherapy, to
have memory T-cells that remember
the cancer and are ready for when
it comes back. In a trial at a Milan
hospital, ten patients who had bone
marrow transplants were also given
immune-boosting therapy which

included the memory T-cells. They
were found to be there 14 years later.
Immunotherapies, which harness
the bodys own immune system,
look set to replace cell-damaging
chemotherapies. But one of the
biggest challenges is to make these
changes last long enough that the
cancer cannot come back.
The Milan study proved for the
first time scientists have shown that
these cells can survive in the body
well beyond the original cancer
treatment.
Prof Bonini and colleagues are now
working on a new wave of immune
cells that can use sensor molecules
known as antigen receptors to track
down and wipe out a wide variety of
types of cancer. When the cells are
combined with the memory cells it
should produce a treatment which
effectively vaccinates the body
against cancer.
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March 2016
71
motoring
Tiny electric runabout?
The Renualt Twizy is totally unique.

A two-seat 'quadricycle', it's a
blend of micro-car and scooter that
produces zero emissions. Powered by
a 17bhp 6.1kWh lithium ion battery
driving the rear wheels via a singlespeed transmission, it has a modest
top speed of 50mph and a claimed
range of 62 miles. It takes three-anda-half hours to fully charge from
any mains socket at around 1 a go
cheaper if you take advantage of
off-peak times.
It's a car for big-city living rather
than frolics into the countryside or
blasts on the motorway. That said,
there are no limits to its use you

can legally tinker up the Motorway
in it, if you're feeling exceptionally
brave.
Prices for the car itself start from
6,895 for the Expression model to
7,795 for the Cargo version, which
swaps the second seat in the back
for luggage space. You have to pay
an extra 545 for the scissor doors,
too, unless you're happy being fully
exposed to side wind and rain.
You then also have to factor in the
cost of leasing the battery to power
it the cheapest rate is 45 a month
over 36 months and a maximum
4,500-mile-a-year
agreement.
Extending to 6,000 miles pushes the
price up by 4 a month.
While that might sound like you
are being fleeced on top of the cost
of the car, Renault introduced the
scheme to eradicate fears of having
to pay for a replacement battery
if it declines in performance over
time.
All new UK motors

must be zero emissions by 2050
The United Kingdom (UK) has
reaffirmed its commitment to an
agreement that all new cars sold
by 2050 will be zero emissions
vehicles.
The ZEV Alliance received the
signatures of five countries and
eight US states in total to continue to
support zero emissions technology
and promote the clean-up of vehicleproduced pollutants.
The
British
government
committed to selling nothing but
zero emissions new cars by 2050
after reaffirming membership to
72
March 2016
ZEV Alliance at the recent climate

change conference in Paris.
Other
countries
pledging
allegiance to the agreement at the
UN Climate Change Conference
in
Paris
include
Germany,
Netherlands and Norway.
By signing the agreement, the
Government has agreed to strive
for all passenger vehicle sales
in the UK to be zero emissions
vehicles as soon as possible, with
the 2050 date being the final
deadline. ZEV Alliance members
also have to provide incentives to
northsouth
Driverless cars could

prevent 95 per cent
of road accidents
Making all cars driverless could
prevent 95 per cent of car accidents
and add $80 billion (51 billion)
a year to the United Kingdom
(UK) economy, a new report by
the Institution of Management
Engineers (IME) has claimed,
adding that 95 per cent of crashes
happen due to driver error.
"The benefits of this sort of
technology are huge," said Philippa
Oldham, head of transport at the
IME. She added that the UK could
benefit to the tune of billions "due
to fewer accidents, improved
productivity and increased trade".
The
IME
called
on
the
government to "help integrate
driverless vehicles into the current
UK transport network".
It urged the Department of
Transport to work closely with
the industry to "address the safety
issues of mixed road use" to help
integrate autonomous cars into
the UK's road network.
"This will include updates and
standardisation to road signage
and road markings to enable these
driverless vehicles to operate in the
safest way possible," said Oldham.
The organisation also said car
dealerships and manufacturers
must clarify how they will provide
after-sales care, technical updates
and upgrades.
"Much more work needs to be
done to clarify regulation and
insurance issues," said Oldham.
purchase zero emissions vehicles,

and use policies such as tax
breaks and government grants
to promote cars producing no
emissions.
The UK will also be required
to invest in an infrastructure
to support both hydrogen and
electric-powered cars.
First driverless cars to be trialled this summer in London
London's first driverless cars

will be trialled this summer as
Heathrow's autonomous "pods" hit
the streets of Greenwich.
Forget Google and its Californian
experiments - driverless cars are
about to come a lot closer to home,
after a project announced plans
to trial autonomous vehicles in
Greenwich this summer.
The Gateway project said three
British companies - Westfield
Sportscars, Heathrow Enterprises
and Oxbotica - will work together

to develop "pods" based on the ones
already at Heathrow which can
"operate fully autonomously and
safely on the streets of London".
The Heathrow pods, which ferry
passengers between Terminal 5 and
the business car park, currently
run on a track - but Gateway
says the new ones "will now be
adapted to navigate the streets of
Greenwich without the need for
dedicated tracks".
Electric 'supercar' boasts speeds of 200mph

Afuturistic electric supercar that
can reach speeds of up 200mph has
been unveiled.
The single seat cockpitFFZERO1,
which also has a smartphone
integrated into the steering wheel,
made its debut at the Consumer
Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas.
The smartphone can show real
time data and be used to alter the
car's set-up.
It is the brainchild of Californiabased car maker Faraday Future
whoconfirmed there are currently
no plans to place the ZERO onsale, but wanted to create a "car of

concepts". They do however, plan to
begin building production cars.
The firm is already being
earmarked as a potential Tesla
challenger in the future. The first
teaser video for the car has been
watched almost one million times on
YouTube.
The chassis in the FFZERO1 is
flexible so that it can be made longer
or shorter to include different
numbers of battery packs, while the
body is made from carbon fibre.
Though several of the biggest car
manufacturers were also displaying
new car technology at CES,
including the likes of BMW, General
Motors and Audi, the largest crowds
were at the Faraday Future booth
inside the Las Vegas Convention
Centre.
While
Westfield
will
be
responsible for the manufacturing
of the pods, Heathrow will be in
charge of software engineering
and Oxbotica will oversee mapping,
localisation,
perception
and
trajectory planning.
Gateway (short for Greenwich
Automated
Transport
Environment) is an 8m project
set up by Innovate UK and led
by the UK's Transport Research
Laboratory (TRL).
Nick Reed, the project's technical
director, said the three organisations
will bring a "great deal of experience"
to the project.
"If the trials prove successful, we
expect these iconic vehicles to become
a familiar sight in many cities around
the world. A feasibility study by TRL
back in the summer looked at how
electronic vehicles could be powered
as they travel on the motorway. Trails
were expected to begin last year for
18 months.
Bosch under
investigation for US
emission cheat
Auto supplier Bosch is under
investigation by US authorities
over its role in VWs scheme to
cheat US emission standards.
Federal prosecutors with the
US Department of Justice are
looking into whether Bosch knew
or participated in VWs yearslong efforts to circumvent diesel
emissions tests. Bosch built key
components in the diesel engine
used in some Volkswagen and
Audi models currently embroiled
in the emissions scandal.
northsouth
March 2016
73
informaton & communcaton
technology
Twitters new algorithmic timeline

Twitter went into an uproar last
month after a BuzzFeed report that
the social network was on the brink
introducing an algorithmic, more
Facebook-style feed. Twitter CEO
Jack Dorsey tried to calm fears in
a series of tweets, but he did not
deny the substance of the report.
High-profile users havethreatened
toabandon the service, and the
changes reportedly could arrive as
soon as this month.The Verge has
now seen the redesigned timeline
and can share new details about how
it is going to work.
So, how will your new Twitter
timeline look? With the caveat that
some things could change in the
final shipping version: a lot like the
old timeline. Here are a couple of
screenshots from a tipster who has
been in the test group for several
months:
You have to look close to see that
the tweets are out of order: in this
case, a few tweets from nine or ten

hours ago show up before one that
was posted two hours ago. But
screenshots like these have been
floating around for a few months
now. What is really important is how
the new timeline works in practice.
The algorithm that will reorder your timeline is based on
the one that ranks tweets for the
while you were away feature
that Twitterintroduced a year ago.
The best way to think of the new
timeline is as an expanded version
of this feature.Spend an entire day
away from Twitter, and when you
open the app again, you will see
highlights from the day. If you open
it up a few times a day, you will see
a handful of while you were awaystyle sections breaking up the
chronological tweets. And whenever
you pull down to refresh your
stream, it is back to the regular,
reverse-chronological timeline.
Pirate Bay lets you stream torrents from

your browser
The best-known
torrent site in
the world now
streams pirated
content too.
The
Pirate
Bay has added
support
for
Torrents Time,
a plugin that lets users stream
torrents
directly
inside
their
browser.
There is no need to download
the torrent itself, or a BitTorrent
client, or even the actual content
then lets the whole process run
74
March 2016
inside Firefox, Internet Explorer, or

Chrome, on either Windows or OS X.
The system is currently in beta,
and has all the usual problems of
pirated torrents (namely bad image
quality and the need to wait for
peers to seed the content), but it is
still an extremely simple system.
Torrents Time itself was only
released at the beginning of this
month by the team behind PopcornTime.se the first major fork of the
popular Popcorn Time app.
The plugin is not just built for The
Pirate Bay though any torrenting
site can add support.
northsouth
Amazon launches
free triple-A game
engine
Amazon has launched a new game
engine named Lumberyard - and
it is giving it away for free. The
company says the software is
capable of building triple-A games
for PCs, consoles, mobile devices,
and even VR platforms. And while
it costs nothing to download
and use, Amazon says it will
make its money back by selling
various additional web services to
developers.
iPhones disabled if
Apple detects thirdparty repairs
The latest software update for iPhone
6 handsets is allegedly rendering
the devices useless if it detects
repairs not carried out by Apple.
The problem is known as error 53
and has appeared in Apple products
before. The Guardian reports that
users phones were disabled after the
Touch ID home button was repaired
by a non-Apple engineer.
Tablet shipments
decline 10.1% in 2015
The tablet market is still in
decline. Fourth quarter 2015 is
the fifth straight quarter in a
row to see a decrease year over
year: 65.9 million units shipped,
down 13.7 per cent from the 76.4
million units that shipped the
same quarter last year, according
to market research firm IDC.
First ever Ultra HD 4K Blu-ray

player has gone on sale
Samsungs UBD-K8500, the first

Ultra HD 4K Blu-ray player, has
gone on sale a bit earlier than
expected. The device wasannounced
at IFA last year, and scheduled to
hit stores around March. However,
there have been scattered reports
thatcertain shopshave already got
the player in stock, while customers
who preordered the device from
Best Buyhavebeen told it is now
shipping.
Why exactly the shipping date for
the UBD-K8500 has been pushed
forward is anyones guess, although
its certainly not to keep up with a
rush of 4K content. Although plenty
of movie studios haveannounced

films that will be released or rereleased in the new format, its not
clear if any are currently available
nationwide. Launch titles, such as
The Martian and Kingsmen: The
Secret Service, are stilllisted as
preorder only on Amazon, while the
majority of confirmed films have
uncertain release dates scheduled
for sometime before the end of the
year.
SamsungsUBD-K8500 can also
stream 4K content from providers
like Netflix and plays regular Blurays, DVDs, CDs, and 3D discs.
You know that format that was
going to be the next big thing just
before it turned out UHD and HDR
were actually the next big thing.
And although 4K should have a
longer shelf-life than 3D, theres
probably no rush to go out and
grab a player yet.
Time acquired MySpaces parent company

Time Inc. - the owner of Time,
Fortune, and People magazines - has
acquired Viant, the parent company
of MySpace. Joe Ripp, chairman
and CEO of Time Inc., described the
acquisition as game changing in a
press release. The financial terms of
the deal were not disclosed.
For Time Inc., this acquisition is
all about the data.
Ad network Specific Media,
another
Viant-owned
company,
scooped up Myspace for $35 million

in 2011. Its previous owner before
that was News Corp, which bought
Myspace for $580 million back in
2005.
In buying Myspace, Viant amassed
a database of more than1 billion
registered users. While not all of
those people may have kept the same
email address from their Myspace
days, it still has an enviable treasure
troveof first-party data.
T-Mobiles Binge On
Microsoft confirms
SwiftKey acquisition likely illegal- study
for $250 million
The debate over the potential harm of
Microsoft confirmed that it has
acquired SwiftKey - a startup based
out of London that makes keyboard
apps for Android and iOS devices
and is already installed and used on
some 300 million devices. The terms
of the deal are not being disclosed
but sources close to the deal it was
puirchased for $250 million in cash.
T-Mobiles Binge On deal continues,

with a new study from Stanford
University claiming that the perk
violates key net neutrality principles
and is likely illegal. Binge On lets
T-Mobile subscribers watch videos
from streaming services such as
Netflix and Hulu without eating into
their data plan.
Samsung to unveil
Gear 360 virtual
reality camera
After
Samsung
announced
the debut date of its Galaxy
S7 smartphone, there are new
rumblings that the company will
also release a long-rumoured
virtual reality camera. Samsung
may have offered some hint
as to its VR intentions via its
promotion for the February.
The new device will be called the
Gear 360, according to a report
from SamMobile, and will house
two 180-degree fisheye lenses.
Additional features included in
the Gear 360, according to the
report, are an internal battery,
wireless Bluetooth connectively,
a Gear 360 app (which will
include a gallery and time lapse
feature), internal memory for
video and images and the ability
to switch between 180-degree and
360-degree panoramic recording.
he first hints of Samsungs
plans to possibly introduce a
commercial VR camera came
back in 2014, when the company
revealed its Project Beyond
device, a 360-degree view camera
specifically designed to create
content for the Gear VR. Samsung
hasnt confirmed the Gear 360
name, nor has it revealed any
photos of a new device, but if the
report turns out to be true, the
Project Beyond design (shown
in this report) would likely make
a very consumer-friendly firstgeneration product. The new VR
camera is expected to debut on
the same day as the new S7 at the
Mobile World Congress event in
Barcelona, Spain.
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March 2016
75
informaton & communcaton
technology
IBM acquired ecx.io, its third

digital agency in a week
IBM announced that it has agreed

to acquire ecx.io, a digital agency
in Europe with customers including
Axalta, Hammer and JAB Anstoetz.
The multi-national agency based
in Dusseldorf joins Resource/
Ammiratiin the United States and
Aperto in Berlin as acquisitions
IBMs design unit,IBM iX (for
Interactive Experience) has made
in one week.
Asked about the flurry of deals,
European unit Chief Matthew
Candy said IBM has been on a
journey to build out its own 25
design studios organically, but
wanted the chance to grow even
faster through acquisition. Our
simple orders are growth, and

these announcements are making
sure to continue to drive it, Candy
says.
The digital practice at IBM now
has more than 1,100 designers
and 10,000 employees, with a
new group approaching 1,000 to
add just from these three deals.
Why agencies would join IBM?
the stability of its expertise in
maintaining long-term customer
relations, says ecx.io chief Gerald
Lanzerits. Wed build websites and
ecommerce sites, and the project
was done and the customers went
away, Lanzerits tells FORBES.
Now we can focus on bigger
accounts more intensively, to plan
for the next two or three years.
The recent string of acquisitions,
which
evenincludes
a
video
streaming service, Ustream,would
seem to suggest that IBMs feeling
that pressure more intensely as it
looks at 2016.
Microsoft open
WSJ plans three
more vertical apps sources its artificial
brain to the public
The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) is
taking a vertical approach to mobile
apps. While the Journal has a main
app for its content, the publisher
is also making specific apps. WSJ
Live offers video content, What is
News is a daily digest of 10 stories
a day, and City, the London-focused
finance and markets app, is aimed
at its 1.5 million British readers.
Now, according to the publishers
chief innovation officer Edward
Roussel, there will be three
more apps to come in the next
few months.
76
March 2016
Microsofts
brain
is now available
for anyone to use
in their apps. The
company has open
sourced the artificial intelligence
framework it uses to power speech
recognition in its Cortana digital
assistant and Skype Translate
applications.
This means that anyone in the
world is now free to view, modify,
and use Microsofts code in their
own software.
northsouth
Snapchat eyes
app install ads
As Snapchat faces down a big
year, and a true test of its ability
to create a sustainable business,
the company may be dipping into
Facebooks domain for mobile
revenue: app install ads. Snapchats
sales
representatives
have
indicated in recent discussions
with ad agencies it is considering
selling app install ads, according
to three people who have discussed
the ad product with the company.
As Snapchat laid out the idea to
ad agencies, people would swipe
down on a video ad for an app,
which would take them to either
the iOS or Android app store.
These ads could theoretically be
placed inside channels within the
Discover section or Live Stories.
Facebooks free Basics

banned in India
Late
last
year,
the
Indian
government temporarily banned
Facebooks free Basics programme
over net neutrality concerns. Now, it
is banned for real. A new regulation
issued by the Telecom Regulatory
Authority of India bans more than
just Facebooks offering: The ruling
bans zero-rated internet services
altogether.
Facebook shutters
its developer
platform, Parse
Periscope for iPhone

now lets you broadcast
live using GoPro
Facebook is shutting down Parse,

the suite of developer tools it
acquired in 2013 to help small
mobile developers build apps using
Facebook-owned tools and servers.
The announcement came via a blog
post, just six months after Parse
CEO Ilya Sukhar left the company.
Your Periscope feed could soon be

full of extreme footage. There is
now an integration that allows the
GoPro HERO4 Black or Silver to
broadcast straight to Periscope. For
iPhone users, the Periscope app will
recognize a connected GoPro and
give the option to broadcast from
that device instead of using the
phone camera.
Apple is developing
charging tech that
works from distance Only 5% of developers
Now the problem working on Wii U
with this kind of Game, survey says
technology is, the

farther you are, the
less efficient it is
and the longer the
charging time becomes. Bloomberg
says the iPhone-maker is currently
finding a way to prevent power
loss caused by the distance between
a mobile device and its charging
apparatus.
The Game Developers Conference

has released its State of the Industry
Report, laying out development
trends ahead of its annual conference.
Survey says that PC games are in,
and Wii U is out. PC games continue
to lead the industry, with 52 percent
of surveyed developers working on
PC games.
Spotify launches
video shows on
iPhone and Android
Venmo is taking on
Apple Pay with inapp purchases
Spotify has just launched its video

channel with content from ESPN,
Comedy Central, MTV, BBC, Vice
News, Slate, and others. On both
Android and iOS, you can get to
Spotifys videos by tapping the
Browse section, and then choosing
Shows.
Venmo, the PayPal-owned app that

lets you send money with your
smartphone, is expanding from
peer-to-peer payments to in-app
purchases in a direct challenge to
Apple Pay and Samsung Pay. The
company announced partnerships
with sports ticket app Gametime
and food delivery app Munchery,
which will both now use payment
info stored in Venmo to let users buy
tickets or order meals.
Hyperloops first
800MPH pods to be
designed by MIT
Students from MIT have become
the perhaps unsurprising first
winners of Elon Musks Hyperloop
competition, launched to create
the concepts that might bring his
new super-fast transportation
pod to the world.
Although hes pretty busy
launching rockets right now,
Musk turned up at Texas A&M
University to deliver the good
news and hosted a 30-minute
Q&A with more than 100 teams
who had signed up for the
competition.
Samsung is
opening a VR film
studio in New York
Samsung is ready to double down on

virtual reality filmmaking.
In an announcement at Sundance,
Samsung USA marketing chief Marc
Mathieu stated that the company
plans on opening a VR production
studio based in one if its New York
City offices.
At Samsung we love stories,
Mathieu told his audience at the
festival.
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March 2016
77
sports
The London exhibition
of Muhammad Ali's life
Muhammad Ali is expected to visit

London to inspire a whole new
generation of fans as an exhibition
dedicated to his life opens. The
boxing legend, who has Parkinsons
disease, is determined to travel
to the capital to see the landmark
show at the O2 this month because
of his love of Britain.
His three fights here against
Henry Cooper in 1963 and 1966
and later that year against Brian
London sealed a special bond
with the British public. Famously
he was dropped by Coopers left
hook Enrys Ammer during
the first fight but won by a stoppage
in the fifth, just as he had predicted.
Ali, 74, returned many times,
notably for his chat show bouts with
78
March 2016
Michael Parkinson at the BBC, and

was mobbed by fans on later visits.
In 1999, crowds in Brixton chanted
Ali bomaye a cry first heard at
the Rumble in the Jungle fight in
Zaire against George Foreman.
Alis wife Lonnie told the
Standard: The O2 has done an
incredible job working with the
Muhammad Ali Center to share
Muhammads legacy and ideals
with audiences around the world.
The family is anticipating we will
attend this tremendous celebration
of the principles that shaped his
life.
Highlights include an Olympic
torch from the 1960 Rome games
where Ali, then Cassius Clay, won
gold, and signed golden boxing
gloves given by Ali to Elvis in
1973. The wisecracking young
boxer shook up the world when
he knocked down heavyweight
champion Sonny Liston in 1964.
He cemented his reputation as The
Greatest when he refused to join
the Vietnam War it cost him his
titles and saw him banned from
boxing.
He returned to reclaim the
heavyweight title twice more during
the Seventies, beating Foreman and
Joe Frazier. After retirement he
kept up his charitable work despite
publicly battling Parkinsons for
more than 30 years.
Author Davis Miller, co-curator of
the I Am The Greatest exhibition, said:
I dont think if this was happening
anywhere else in the world Ali would
do it. He connects with people in the
UK, he connects with the Brits.
northsouth
English Premier
League: Arsenal
overtake Chelsea
Chelsea have been eclipsed by
London rivals Arsenal in Deloittes
latest Football Money League,
which ranks the worlds top clubs
by revenue. Chelsea recorded
income of 319.5m in 2014-15,
placing them 8th in the rich list,
as they led the domestic title race
from start to finish and won the
Capital One Cup. Arsenal posted
revenue of 331.3m to lift them
one place to seventh in the Football
Money League, having claimed
the FA Cup for a second year and
finished third in the top flight.
The Gunners benefited from a 34
per cent increase in commercial
income to 103.3m driven by the
start of a new kit deal with Puma
thought to be worth close to 30m
per season.
Champions league
breakaway prospects
dismissed
Europes leading clubs have played

down the prospect of a breakaway
from the Champions League but
want ways to make the competition
more attractive.
The European
Clubs Association has announced
a review of both that tournament
and the Europa League, with the
results due towards the end of the
year.
ECA chairman Karl-Heinz
Rummenigge said: Both ECA and
Uefa are interested in an evolution of
the competitions. Stagnation means
regression. We have always jointly
looked into ways to further develop
and improve the competitions.
FIFA officials stole disaster funds, US

The United States department of
Justice in conjunction with Swiss
police have laced a total of 16 FIFA
officials
with fresh corruption
charges
for
sums
totalling
$200million
dollars
mostly
relating to TV and marketing
deals in north, south and central
America and the Caribbean.
The most shocking detail in
the new indictment is the new
revelation involving officials who
were indicted following arrests
last May namely Jack Warner
and Jeffrey Webb who has already
pleaded guilty to seven charges,
but this men in the most inhumane
of
professional
characters
embezzled money meant for Haiti
Relief victims.
Webb, a banker from the Cayman
Islands, has pleaded guilty to
racketeering conspiracy, three
counts of wire fraud conspiracy

and three counts of money
laundering conspiracy.
As part of his Webbs plea,
he agreed to forfeit more than
$6.7m dollars. Warner diverted
$750,000in
emergency
funds
donated by FIFA and the Korean
Football
Association
intended
for victims of the 2010 Haiti
earthquake.
He
is
currently
fighting
extradition by U.S authorities
from Trinidad to the USA.
The
indictment
states:
The
conspirators corruption of the
enterprise extended beyond the
payment and receipt of bribes and
kickbacks.
US attorney general Loretta
Lynch speaking in Washington DC
said : The betrayal of trust is truly
outrageous.
IAAF president to step down after Rio 2016
Lord Coe, the IAAF president, has

revealed he has stepped down from
his ambassadorial role with Nike,
ending a 38-year association with
the American sportswear giants.
Coe, elected as president in August,
has been heavily criticised in recent
months for a potential conflict of
interest given that the most powerful
man in athletics retained a paid
role with one of the sports biggest
backers a charge he strenuously
denies.
He was reportedly paid about
100,000-a-year by Nike.
Coe announced that CSM, the
sports marketing firm he heads,

will not tender for any contracts
that might lead to allegations of a
conflict of interest. And he will also
step down as chairman of the British
Olympic Association after the Rio
2016 Olympics.
Coe said: I have sought advice
from the IAAFs Ethics Committee
to review my interests and was told
I could retain my positions in Nike
and CSM as long as I do not seek to
influence any decisions that could
influence them. Im grateful for that
advice but it is clear that perception
and reality have become horribly
mangled.
Ive made the following decisions:
Ive stepped down from my
ambassadorial role with Nike which
lasted 38 years.
The current noise level around this
role is not good for the IAAF, and for
Nike. Frankly, it is a distraction to
the 18-hour days that I and my teams
are working to steady the ship.
English clubs
among worlds
richest
All 20 English Premier League
clubs could feature among the
worlds 30 richest football teams
once bumper new television
contracts worth 8bn kick in
next
season.
The
forecast,
which underlines the financial
superiority enjoyed by even
modest English sides over all but
the very biggest European outfits,
is contained in Deloittes Football
Money League 2016. real Madrid,
which earned 439m in 2014-2015,
top the list for the 11th year in a
row, with Manchester United third
and Manchester City, Arsenal,
Chelsea and Liverpool occupying
positions six to nine. Tottenham
are 12th, Newcastle and Everton
17th and 18th respectively, and
West Ham 20th. Southampton,
Aston Villa, Leicester, Sunderland,
Swansea, Stoke, Crystal Palace
and West Brom are all in the top
30. Englands top-flight teams
currently benefit from threeyear TV contracts worth around
5.2bn.
Carrier bag kid to

meet idol Messi
The image of Murtaza Ahmadi
wearing a carrier bag with the name
of Argentina star Lionel Messi went
viral after his dad made him the top
from a plastic bag because they could
not afford a real shirt. Murtaza,
five, was tracked down to Ghazni
province, east Afghanistan, after his
cousin posted more pictures online.
Messis agent contacted the family to
say the Barcelona forward wants to
meet Murtaza. The Spanish embassy
in Kabul said it would do whatever
possible to facilitate a meeting in
Europe.
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March 2016
79
life & style
T-cell therapy offers lasting cure

prospects, scientists say
A revolutionary cancer therapy that

uses the bodys own immune cells to
attack metastatic tumours that have
spread is being hailed as a paradigm
shift in treatment of the disease.
Patients with advanced blood cancers
who were not expected to live beyond
five months have shown complete
remission after 18 months of followup checks with no signs of the disease
returning, scientists have revealed.
In one trial of a patients own T-cells
a type of white blood cell that were
engineered in the laboratory to identify
and attack tumour cells, more than 90
per cent of the 35 patients with acute
lymphoblastic leukaemia went into
complete remission.
In two other clinical trials involving
about 40 patients with either nonHodgkinslymphoma

or
chronic
lymphocyte leukaemia, more than 80
per cent of patients responded to the
treatment. About half of them have
been in complete remission for up to 18
months, scientists said.
Detailed findings of the clinical trials
are to be published later this year,
but summary results were discussed
at the American Association for the
Advancement of Science, whose annual
meeting in Washington DC ended last
month.
Cancer specialists urged caution over
the early trials of T-cell therapy, saying
that it did not work for everyone and
some patients experienced toxic sidereactions and died. However, they said
the improvements seen in some patients
who had failed every other course of
treatment were unprecedented.
T-cells form an important arsenal
in the bodys immune defences. They
help to identify invading viruses and
bacteria and can keep a memory of
previous infections in order to launch a
rapid immune response when the body
comes under a repeat attack.
A new study on rats has shed light

on just how much damage sugary
drinks can inflict to our brain.
The changes observed to the region
of the brain that controls emotional
behaviour and cognitive function
were more extensive than those
caused by extreme early life stress.
It is known that adverse
experiences early in life, such as
extreme stress or abuse, increase
the risk of poor mental health and
psychiatric disorders later in life.
The number of traumatic events
(accidents; witnessing an injury;
bereavement; natural disasters;

physical, sexual and emotional
abuse; domestic violence and being
a victim of crime) a child is exposed
to is associated with elevated
concentrations of the major stress
hormone, cortisol.
There is also evidence that
childhood
maltreatment
is
associated with reduced brain
volume and that these changes may
be linked to anxiety.
In this study, the rats were
exposed to high sugar intakes
during development, and the
Sugar may be as damaging to

the brain as extreme abuse
80
March 2016
northsouth
Too much running

can shrink brain,
study
Ultra-marathons take a toll
on a runners body, breaking
down cartilage and shrinking
competitors
brains,
German
scientists say. They say, however,
that hardy athletes bounce back
with their joints repairing while
the marathon is still going on. A
group of 44 runners in the 2,796mile Trans Europe Foot Race from
Italy to Norway were monitored
every 560 miles by a team from
the University Hospital of Ulm in
Germany. They found cartilage
seemed to degrade during the first
1,500 miles of the race. But after
that distance about 60 marathons
it recovered. Runners brains
also temporarily shrank by six
per cent particularly in the area
involved in visual processing. It
is hard to explain what is going
on, said study leader Uwe Schutz.
Normal marathons do not cause
the same degradation, he added.
impact of the sugar is worrying as
it may affect brain development,
although further work is required
to test this.
In this study, combining sugar
intake and early life stress did
not produce further changes in
the hippocampus, but whether
this remains the case over time is
unclear.
Scientists find genes that pave way for better health in old age
For decades, the science world has
been trying to unravel the genetic
secrets of ageing. Now, researchers
in Switzerland have taken a major
step forward.
They have discovered that just 30
genes, present in a wide range of
species, play a key role in the ageing
process, and they believe these could
be manipulated in the future to
make growing old a more pleasant
and healthy experience.
The
researchers
from
the
University of Zurich and the
JenAge consortium identified the
responsible genes by analysing how
genetic activity was regulated in
three different species mice, zebra
fish and worms. They noted how
regulation changed with the three
stages of ageing young, mature
and old.
A total of 40,000 genes were

studied, known as the orthologous
genes. Derived from a common
ancestor, they are found in
organisms across the planet, and
the scientists believe the findings
could be extended to humans.
"We looked only for the genes
that are conserved in evolution and
therefore exist in all organisms,
including
humans,"
explained
Michael Ristow, one of the lead
authors. The results are published in
the journal Nature Communications.
They worked out the extent
to
which
genes
influenced
ageing by selectively blocking
mRNA molecules - the molecules
responsible for translating genetic
codes into actual proteins. Without
having an mRNA molecule, a gene
cannot be expressed. In the case of
a dozen genes included in the study,

preventing expression increased
lifespan by at least five per cent.
The study has the potential to
deliver important indicators on
how the ageing process could be
influenced and how age-related
diseases such as diabetes or high
blood pressure could be prevented.
In
light
of
unfavourable
demographics
and
steadily
increasing life expectancy, it is
important to extend the healthy
life phase and not to reach an even
higher age that is characterised by
chronic diseases, the researchers
say.
With such preventive measures, an
elderly person could greatly improve
their quality of life while at the same
time cutting their healthcare costs
by more than half.
Cholesterol drug can restore vision in patients

with age-related macular degeneration, study
A drug commonly used to lower
cholesterol could help restore
vision in patients suffering from
age-related macular degeneration
(AMD).
The health condition currently
affects more than 600,000 people in
the United Kingdom (UK) and is the
leading cause of vision loss.
A small clinical trial of people with
AMD found high-dose treatment
with the statin Lipitor cleared away
fatty deposits behind the retina. This
led to visual improvement in almost
half of patients.
Researchers believe the drug has
the potential to halt progression of
the disease.
Researchers recruited 23 patients
with dry AMD marked by soft lipid
deposits, who were prescribed a
80mg daily dose of atorvastatin,
which is marketed under the brand
name Lipitor.
Out of the 23 patients, 10 of them
ended up with reduced deposits

under their retinas and a mild
improvement in vision.
Lead researcher Professor Joan
Miller, chair of ophthalmology at
Harvard Medical School, said: "We
found that intensive doses of statins
carry the potential for clearing up
the lipid debris that can lead to vision
impairment in a subset of patients
with macular degeneration."
Co-author Dr Demetrios Vavvas,
from Massachusetts Eye and Ear
Infirmary in the US, added: "Not all
cases of dry AMD are exactly the
same, and our findings suggest that
if statins are going to help, they will
be most effective when prescribed
at high dosages in patients with an
accumulation of soft lipid material.
"These data suggest that it may
be possible to eventually have a
treatment that not only arrests the
disease but also reverses its damage
and improves the visual acuity in
some patients."
Professor Miller added: "We hope
that this promising preliminary
clinical trial will be the foundation
for an effective treatment for
millions of patients afflicted with
AMD."
Researchers now hope to extend
the trial with more patients.
The study was published in the
journal EBioMedicine.
northsouth
March 2016
81
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INTERNATIONAL CURRENT AFFAIRS MAGAZINE FOR NEWS & VIEWS TO BRIDGE THE GLOBAL DIVIDE

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24 The rise and rise of

43 P entagon thwarts Obamas

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28 Yemen: is peace possible?

47 Syrias elusive ceasefire