Professional Documents
Culture Documents
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Competent
a u t h o r i t i e s have f o r e c a s t impending s c a r c i t y almost since the i n c e p t i o n of t h e o i l
i n d u s t r y . The important p o i n t i s t h a t t h e t h r e a t of s c a r c i t y SO stimulated research
, t h a t shortages w e r e e f f e c t i v e l y f o r e s t a l l e d . Furthermore, research w a s continuing
simultaneously on a wide v a r i e t y of s u b s t i t u t e s , which could conceivably have f i l l e d
t h e gap, a t no dramatic i n c r e a s e i n c o s t , i f o i l resources h a d not kept pace with
requirements. Developments i n these areas have influenced u t i l i z a t i o n a t l e a s t as
much as have t e c h n i c a l improvements i n t h e consumption of energy.
TECHNOLOGY OF PETROLEUM UTILIZATION
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next twenty years. Most of t h e devices which might compete with t h e gasolinepowered p i s t o n engine are hydrocarbon engines themselves. Among t h e s e are t h e gas
turbine; t h e light-weight, high-speed d i e s e l engine; t h e s t r a t i f i e d charge engine;
t h e f ree-piston engine; t h e S t i r l i n g engine; and t h e NSU rotary combustion engine.
Based on p r e s e n t information, none of t h e s e engines p r e s e n t s a major t h r e a t t o t h e
gasoline p i s t o n engine, although highway d i e s e l use i s growing. I n t h e longer run,
t h e r e may be some s h i f t toward t h e s t r a t i f i e d charge and t h e g a s t u r b i n e engine.
None of these changes, however, would s e r i o u s l y affect t h e t o t a l demand f o r hydmcarbons although they might n e c e s s i t a t e a s h i f t away from gasoline toward middle
d i s t i l l a t e s i n t h e r e f i n i n g process.
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The demand p r o j e c t i o n s of t h e previous s e c t i o n are p r e d i c a t e d on t h e assumpt i o n of no change i n r e l a t i v e p r i c e s . If, however, petroleum resources should
prove inadequate t o meet expected demand and i f p r i c e s should rise, t h e f u t u r e
demand p a t t e r n s would diverge from t h e p r o j e c t e d l e v e l s . It i s important, t h e r e f o r e , t o balance projected demand a g a i n s t t h e resources which can be made a v a i l a b l e
during t h e period i n question.
I f t h e domestic consumption of petroleum products should grow at t h e indicated
upper l e v e l of 3 p e r cent a year, t o t a l consumption would exceed 100 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s
during t h e next twenty years. The r e s u l t i n g d r a f t on domestic resources would
depend on t h e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n of t h e import c o n t r o l program and t h e amount of n a t u r a l
gas l i q u i d s produced, b u t i t i s not unreasonable t o assume t h a t t h e p r o j e c t e d demand
p a t t e r n implies t h e production of 70 t o 80 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s of domestic crude o i l
during the next two decades. The domestic i n d u s t r y had not produced q u i t e t h i s much
o i l after t h e f i r s t century of i t s existence. Is it l i k e l y t h a t it can produce t h i s
huge q u a n t i t y i n the next twenty y e a r s o r are t h e pessimists, who f e e l t h i s i s an
impossible burden, c o r r e c t ? Even i f i t i s p h y s i c a l l y p o s s i b l e t o produce t h i s
volume, can it be done at competitive p r i c e s ? Given t h e assumption of an unchanged
import program, these questions must be answered i n t h e a f f i r m a t i v e i f t h e preceding
demand p r o j e c t i o n i s t o be accepted.
One's answer t o t h e s e questions depends on h i s estimate of t h e petroleum
content of known petroleum r e s e r v o i r s and those t o be discovered during the f o r e c a s t
period, on t h e q u a l i t y of t h e s e r e s e r v o i r s and on f u t u r e developments i n techniques
of production.
One highly competent a u t h o r i t y has estimated t h a t t h e domestic i n d u s t r y can
develop at l e a s t 70 b i l l i o n b a r r e l s of reserves i n t h e next two decades from f i e l d s
which have a l r e a d y been found and from f i e l d s which w i l l be found on acreage which
i s a l r e a d y p a r t i a l l y explored and i s c u r r e n t l y under l e a s e ( ) + ) . I see no reason t o
challenge t h i s view. It must a l s o be kept i n mind t h a t t h e n a t i o n ' s p o t e n t i a l l y
productive sediments are f a r from explored. Another a u t h o r i t y h a s estimated t h a t
l e s s t h n one f i f t h of t h e n a t i o n ' s p o t e n t i a l l y productive sediments have been
explored with any degree of thoroughness( 6 ).
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CITED
Ann Arbor (Mich.) News, May 1920. Quoted by Kenneth K. Landes, " F a n t a s t i c
Coal and O i l Reserve Figures, 'I Paper presented t o Michigan Academy of
Science, Arts, and L e t t e r s , March 23, 1962.
Barnett, Harold J. and Morse, Chandler, " S c a r c i t y and Growth," p. 192, The
Johns Hopkins Press, Baltimore, 1963.
Clark, James A., "The Chronological History of t h e Petroleum and Natural
Gas Industries," p . v., Clark Book Co., Houston, 1963.
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