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India TV press release

March 4, 2016

India TV-CVoter poll predicts LDF comeback in Kerala while Trinamool


likely to retain Bengal, AIADMK in trouble in Tamilnadu & BJP-AGP may
fall short of majority in Assam
New Delhi, March 4: The CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front may stage a comeback in the
forthcoming Kerala assembly polls, while Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress may retain
power in West Bengal, says an opinion poll conducted by CVoter, telecast on India TV this
evening. In Assam, the BJP-Asom Gana Parishad alliance, which is locked in a battle with the ruling
Congress, may fall short of majority, while in Tamil Nadu, the ruling AIADMK may also fall slightly
short of majority in the 234-seat assembly, says the opinion poll conducted in the first week of
March.
In Kerala UDF is on a comeback trail. Chief Minister Oommen Chandy's United Democratic Front
may be dislodged from power. It has been projected to win 49 seats, compared to 72 seats won
five years ago, while the CPI(M)-led Left Democratic Front is projected to win 89 seats, with a clear
majority in a House of 140. LDF had won 66 seats five years ago. BJP-led NDA is projected to win
only one, and 'Others' 1. Vote percentage wise, LDF is projected to get 44.6 pc, up by one per cent,
while UDF is projected to get 39.1 pc (down from 45.8 pc last time). The BJP is likely to double its
vote share; but still that is not good enough to convert into seats. If the BJP vote share goes up
further; it will not convert into more seats for BJP; but it is likely to dent the Congress; eventually
resulting in a Left sweep. Corruption emerges as the biggest issue.
In West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is projected to retain power, with her party
Trinamool Congress projected to win 156 seats in a House of 294. The party had won 184 seats
five years ago. The CPI(M)-led Left Front is projected to win 114 seats(up from 60 seats five years
ago), while the Congress' share of seats may shrink from 42 five years ago to 13 this time. 'Others'
are projected to win 7 seats.
In WB the TMC and Congress contested as an alliance in 2011. Their split is giving a big boost to
Left numbers even thouh their vote share seems to be going down further. The Congress
performance is now limited to certain areas in North bengal; which could yeild concentrated seats.
But a Congress+Left alliance will make the contest very keen. However it is unlikely that Congress
voters will swing over to Left completely. Vote percentage wise, Trinamool Congress voteshare
may fall to 37.1 pc from 38.9 pc last time, while the Left Front's share may steeply fall to 34.6 pc
from 39.7 pc last time. BJP's voteshare is projected to rise to 10.8 pc from 4.1 pc last time.
In Tamil Nadu, the AIADMK, which is locked in a fierce contest with Karunanidhi's DMK, may fall
two seats short of majority in a House of 234. the AIADMK is projected to win only 116 seats, down
from 203 seats five years ago, while the DMK's share of seats may rise to 101 from 31 last time.
BJP may draw a blank, with 'Others' projected to win 17 seats.

In Tamilnadu; Vijaykanth's DMDK was part of AIADMK alliance in last election. Currently it has
been analysed in "Others". The DMK+ includes Congress. A lot will depend on which way
Vijaykanth decides to contest. He still holds about 5% votes and that could be critical in final
adjustments of seats.

Similarly the BJP going with AIADMK could make the state bipolar. Vote percentagewise, AIADMK's
vote share may fall to 41.1 pc, down from 51.9 pc last time, while the DMK-led alliance's vote share
may stay stable at 39.5 pc. BJP's voteshare is projected to rise to 5.0, from 2.2 last time.
In the northeastern state of Assam, the BJP-AGP alliance is projected to win 57 seats in a House of
126, seven short of majority. Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi's Congress party is projected to win 44
seats, down from 78 it won five years ago. Badruddin Ajmal's All Indian United Democratic Front
is projected to win 19 seats, one up from last time, while 'Others' may win six.
Voting percentagewise, BJP-AGP combine is projected to get 35 pc, up from 33.9 pc last time, while
the ruling Congress voteshare may be reduced to 35.6 from 39.4 last time. In Assam the survey
was conducted before AGP and BJP tie up was announced. The AGP figures in this survey are part
of "Others". Full impact of AGP+BJP alliance will be known only in the next round of survey. After
AGP-BJP tie up the NDA number could increase; but only slightly as AGP today commands less than
5% votes in the state. However any "strategic" understanding between INC and AUDF could tilt
the scale against NDA.

METHODOLOGY
Random stratified sample of 14353 interviews covering all assembly segments in the poll bound
states state during last 4 weeks. Long term trends of historical data from @cvoterindia exit polls
archives of 2005, 2009, 2010 and 2014 elections and CVoter Tracking poll conducted during last
60 months. Margin of error is +/-3% at State level and +/- 5% at Regional level.
Total Sample Size For Round 1Survey: 14353
State
Assam
West Bengal
Kerala
Tamilnadu
Total

Sample Size
2941
4833
3098
3481
14353

CVoter Votes Projections : VS 2016 : Wave 1 : March 1st Week


State
Assam
Assam
Assam
Assam

Party/Front
INC
BJP+
AIUDF
OTHERS

Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala

LDF
UDF
NDA
OTHERS

Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu

ADMK+
DMK+
BJP+
OTHERS

West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal

AITC
INC
CPM+
BJP
Oth

Votes_2011
39.4
33.9
12.6
14.2
100.0
43.6
45.8
6.1
4.5
100.0
51.9
39.5
2.2
6.4
100.0
38.9
9.1
39.7
4.1
8.2
100.0

March_2016_W1
35.6
35.0
13.4
16.0
100.0
44.6
39.1
11.4
4.9
100.0
41.1
39.5
5.0
14.4
100.0
37.1
9.5
34.6
10.8
8.0
100.0

Swing
-3.8
1.1
0.8
1.8
0.0
1.0
-6.7
5.3
0.4
0.0
-10.8
0.0
2.8
8.0
0.0
-1.8
0.4
-5.1
6.7
-0.2
0.0

CVoter Seats Projections : VS 2016 : Wave 1 : March 1st Week


State
Assam
Assam
Assam
Assam

Party/Front
INC
BJP+
AIUDF
OTHERS

Kerala
Kerala
Kerala
Kerala

LDF
UDF
NDA
OTHERS

Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu
Tamil Nadu

ADMK+
DMK+
BJP+
OTHERS

West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal
West Bengal

AITC
INC
CPM+
BJP
Oth

Seats_2011
78
27
18
3
126
66
72
0
2
140
203
31
0
0
234
184
42
60
0
8
294

March_2016_W1
44
57
19
6
126
89
49
1
1
140
116
101
0
17
234
156
13
114
4
7
294

Change
-34
30
1
3
0
23
-23
1
-1
0
-87
70
0
17
0
-28
-29
54
4
-1
0

STATE

EXPLAINATION

WHAT IF

ASSAM

In Assam the survey was


conducted before AGP and BJP tie
up was announced. The AGP
figures in this survey are part of
"Others". Full impact of AGP+BJP
alliance will be known only in the
next round of survey.

After AGP-BJP tie up the NDA number


could increase; but only slightly as AGP
today commands less than 5% votes in
the state. However any "strategic"
understanding between INC and AUDF
could tilt the scale against NDA.

KERALA

In Kerala UDF is on a comeback


trail. The BJP is likely to double its
vote share; but still that is not
good enough to convert into seats.

TAMILNADU

In Tamilnadu; Vijaykanth's DMDK


was part of AIADMK alliance in
last election. Currently it has been
analysed in "Others". The DMK+
includes Congress.

WEST BENGAL

In WB the TMC and Congress


contested as an alliance in 2011.
Their split is giving a big boost to
Left numbers even thouh their
vote share seems to be going
down further.

If the BJP vote share goes up further; it


will not convert into more seats for BJP;
but it is likely to dent the Congress;
eventually resulting in a Left sweep.
Corruption emerges as the biggest
issue.
A lot will depend on which way
Vijaykanth decides to contest. He still
holds about 5% votes and that could be
critical in final adjustments of seats.
Similarly the BJP going with AIADMK
could make the state bipolar.
The Congress performance is now
limited to certain areas in North bengal;
which could yeild concentrated seats.
But a Congress+Left alliance will make
the contest very keen. However it is
unlikely that Congress voters will swing
over to Left completely.

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