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com

ForecastofOffshoreWindFoundation
DemandinNorthWestEuropeforthe
Period20132023
April2013Sample

OrbisEnergyCentre
WildeStreet
Lowestoft,Suffolk
NR321XH
UnitedKingdom
www.4Coffshore.com

TableofContents
1

Introduction.........................................................................................................................................................4

OffshoreWindin2013.........................................................................................................................................4

BelgiumMarketReview.......................................................................................................................................6

3.1

OffshoreWindTargetSummary.................................................................................................................6

3.2

Planning.......................................................................................................................................................6

3.3

Incentives....................................................................................................................................................6

3.4

MarketDevelopmentToDate.....................................................................................................................7

3.5

FutureMarketDevelopment......................................................................................................................7

DenmarkMarketReview.....................................................................................................................................9
4.1

OffshoreWindTargetSummary.................................................................................................................9

4.2

Planning.......................................................................................................................................................9

4.3

Incentives..................................................................................................................................................10

4.4

MarketDevelopmenttoDate....................................................................................................................10

4.5

FutureMarketDevelopment....................................................................................................................11

GermanyMarketReview...................................................................................................................................12
5.1

OffshoreWindTargetSummary...............................................................................................................12

5.2

Planning.....................................................................................................................................................12

5.3

Incentives..................................................................................................................................................14

5.4

MarketDevelopmenttoDate...................................................................................................................14

5.5

FutureMarketDevelopment....................................................................................................................15

NetherlandsMarketReview..............................................................................................................................16
6.1

OffshoreWindTargetSummary...............................................................................................................16

6.2

Planning.....................................................................................................................................................17

6.3

Incentives..................................................................................................................................................17

6.4

MarketDevelopmentToDate....................................................................................................................18

6.5

FutureMarketDevelopment.....................................................................................................................19

FranceMarketReview........................................................................................................................................20
7.1

OffshoreWindTargetSummary................................................................................................................20

7.2

Planning......................................................................................................................................................20

7.3

Incentives...................................................................................................................................................21

7.4

MarketDevelopmentToDate....................................................................................................................21

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7.5
8

FutureMarketDevelopment.....................................................................................................................22

UnitedKingdomMarketReview.........................................................................................................................23
8.1

OffshoreWindTargetSummary................................................................................................................23

8.2

Incentives...................................................................................................................................................23

8.3

Planning......................................................................................................................................................26

8.4

MarketDevelopmentToDate...................................................................................................................27

8.5

FutureMarketDevelopment.....................................................................................................................28

Summaryofcountrystrengthsandweaknesses................................................................................................30

10

EstimatingFoundationTypes.........................................................................................................................31

10.1

Turbines.....................................................................................................................................................32

10.2

WaterDepths.............................................................................................................................................32

10.3

SeabedSoilConditions...............................................................................................................................32

10.4

DynamicWindandWaveLoading.............................................................................................................33

10.5

WaterCurrentEnergy................................................................................................................................34

10.6

Installationmethods..................................................................................................................................35

10.7

HistoricalPreferences................................................................................................................................37

11

ModellingAssumptions..................................................................................................................................38

11.1

EstimatingTurbineCapacity.......................................................................................................................38

11.2

InstallationModel......................................................................................................................................38

11.3

DelayModel...............................................................................................................................................39

12

Results............................................................................................................................................................41

12.1

MonopilesinDeveloperPipelines..............................................................................................................41

12.2

JacketsinDeveloperPipelines...................................................................................................................42

12.3

GravityBasesinDeveloperPipelines.........................................................................................................42

12.4

OtherFoundationsinDeveloperPipelines................................................................................................44

12.5

EuropeanMainMarketOverview..............................................................................................................44

12.6

BelgiumFoundationForecast....................................................................................................................47

12.7

DenmarkFoundationForecast...................................................................................................................48

12.8

FranceFoundationForecast.......................................................................................................................49

12.9

GermanyFoundationForecast...................................................................................................................50

12.10

NetherlandsFoundationForecast.........................................................................................................51

12.11

UnitedKingdomFoundationForecast...................................................................................................52

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1 Introduction
RenewableenergypolicyinEuropeanmemberstateshasemergedprimarilyfromDirective2009/28/EC
oftheEuropeanParliamentandoftheCouncilof23April2009onthepromotionoftheuseofenergy
fromrenewablesources.Thislegislationwasadoptedfromtherecognitionoftheneedtodecarbonise
energysupplyalongsideconcernsoverscarcityandsecurityofenergyresources.
InresponsetothisdirectivecountriessubmittedNationalRenewableEnergyActionPlans(NREAP)to
theEuropeanCommission(EC)detailingthetechnologymixtheyexpectedtouse,thetrajectorythey
willfollowandthemeasuresandreformstheywillundertaketoovercomethebarrierstodeveloping
renewableenergy.
Offshorewindisasingularcomponentwithintheenergymixbutitsscalablerolewithintheenergy
marketmakesitanessentialelementforthemajorityNREAPs.InsomecasestheNREAPshavebeen
surpassedbynationalpolicy(e.g.UK)sincetheirsubmissionin2010,orthereisacrediblereasonto
believethatthe(nonbinding)technologymixproportionswillchange.Also,sincetheDirectivecame
intoforce,theeconomicandpoliticallandscapeofEuropehaschangedconsiderablywithmany
countriesexperiencingprolongedperiodsofrecessionandausteritywhichhasinfluencedthelikelyscale
ofoffshoredevelopment.
ThisreportprovidesaforecastoffoundationdemandforthemainoffshorewindmarketsofEurope
(Belgium,Denmark,France,Germany,Netherlands,andUnitedKingdom)fortheperiodto2023usinga
combinationofprojectbasedanalysisandmarketcontextualanalysis.Thissimultaneoustopdownand
bottomupapproachallowsconsiderationofbothdesignparameterssuchasturbinemodel,water
depthetcinadditiontopoliticalfactorssuchasregulatorychanges.Theprocessofforecastingcanbe
summarizedasfollows:
1. Themarketcontextineachcountryisreviewedandused,alongwiththestatusoftheproject
pipelinetoproposeasetofcrediblelow,mediumandhighmarketdevelopmentscenarios
againstwhichforecastsoffoundationdemandcanbemade.
2. Foreachprojectinvolvedinascenariothenumberandtypeoffoundationsisestimated.The
numberoffoundationsisestimatedfromprojectcapacitiesandlikelyturbinesizeswhere
unknown,withthetypeoffoundationderivedfromadeskstudy.
3. Wherenecessaryprojectpipelinesaredelayedaccordingtotheprojectscertaintystatusin
ordertoproduceaprojectpipelinethatfitsthescenario.Inextremecasestheprojectpipelineis
normalisedfurthertofitthescenariowhilstmaintainingtheratiooffoundationtypes.
4. Theinstallationoffoundationstobeinstalledovertimeismodelledandpresentedinthe
results.

2 OffshoreWindin2013
ThetotalinstalledcapacityofoffshorewindfarmsinEurope,includingprojectsonlypartiallyinstalled
currentlyamountsto5637.65MW.TheUnitedKingdomismarketleaderholding63%(3557.50MW),
followedbyDenmark(18%,1004.08MW)andBelgium(7%,379.50MW).TheUnitedKingdomcurrently

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generatesoverthreetimesmoreoffshorewindenergythananyothercountry(Figure1Installed
Capacity,EuropeMarch2013).

Figure1InstalledCapacity,EuropeMarch2013

ThetotalcapacityunderconstructioninEurope(Figure2)currentlyamountsto2990.70MW.Breakingdownthe
underconstructioncapacitypercountryshowsGermanyascurrentlyconstructingthemostholding63%(1879.20
MW)ofthetotalcapacity,followedbytheUnitedKingdom(22%,671.80MW)andDenmark(9%,270MW).
Figure2.CapacityUnderConstruction,EuropeMarch2013 (NotethattheSpanishprojectisanonshoretestturbine)

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