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S. Ajit
Project
´A project is a series of activities directed to the accomplishment of a desired objective.µ
History
Developed in the 1950s
CPM was developed by Du Pont and the emphasis was on the tradeoff between the cost of the project and its overall completion time (e.g. for certain activities it may be possible to decrease their completion times by spending more money  how does this affect the overall completion time of the project?)
PERT was developed by the US Navy for the planning and control of the Polaris missile program and the emphasis was on completing the program in the shortest possible time. In addition PERT had the ability to cope with uncertain activity completion times (e.g. for a particular activity the most likely completion time is 4 weeks but it could be anywhere between 3 weeks and 8 weeks).
CPM  Critical Path Method
Definition: In CPM activities are shown as a network of precedence relationships using activityonnode network construction ² Single estimate of activity time ² Deterministic activity times
USED IN : Production management  for the jobs of repetitive in nature where the activity time estimates can be predicted with considerable certainty due to the existence of past experience.
PERT Project Evaluation & Review Techniques
Definition: In PERT activities are shown as a network of precedence relationships using activityonarrow network construction ² Multiple time estimates ² Probabilistic activity times
USED IN : Project management  for nonrepetitive jobs (research and development work), where the time and cost estimates tend to be quite uncertain. This technique uses probabilistic time estimates.
The Project Network
Use of nodes and arrows Arrows An arrow leads from tail to head directionally ² Indicate ACTIVITY, a time consuming effort that is required to perform a part of the work.
Nodes A node is represented by a circle  Indicate EVENT, a point in time where one or more activities start and/or finish.
The Project Network
² An activity is a timeconsuming effort that is required to complete part of a project. Shown as an arrow on the diagram ² An event is denoted by a circle and defines the end of one activity and beginning of the next. An event may be a decision point.
Activity Event
Activity Slack
Each event has two important times associated with it :

Earliest time , Te , which is a calendar time when an event can
occur when all the predecessor events completed at the earliest possible times

Latest time , TL , which is the latest time the event can occur with
out delaying the subsequent events and completion of project.
Difference between the latest time and the earliest time of an event is the slack time for that event
Positive slack : Slack is the amount of time an event can be
delayed without delaying the project completion
Critical Path
Is that the sequence of activities and events where there is no ´slackµ i.e.. Zero slack Longest path through a network minimum project completion time
Questions Answered by CPM & PERT
Completion date? On Schedule? Within Budget? Critical Activities? How can the project be finished early at the least cost?
Example
1. Construct the CPM Network using the details below and determine the critical path
Activity A B C D E F G H I J Immediate Predecessor A A A D D E F,G C,H B Duration 1 4 2 2 3 3 2 1 3 2
CPM NETWORK
A 1 2
CPM NETWORK
4 D A 1 2 B C 7
3
CPM NETWORK
5 E 4 D A 1 2 B C 7 F 6
3
CPM NETWORK
5 E G 4 D A 1 2 B C 7 F 6
3
CPM NETWORK
5 E G 4 D A 1 2 B C 7 F 6 H
3
CPM NETWORK
5 E G 4 D A 1 2 B C 7 F 6 H I 8
3
CPM NETWORK
5 E G 4 D A 1 2 B J 3 C 7 F 6 H I 8
CPM NETWORK with duration of each activity
E(3) 4 D(2) A(1) 1 2 B(4) J(2) 3 C(2) 7 F(3) 6 H(1) I(3) 8 5 G(2)
To find the Critical Path
5 E(3) G(2) 4
0 0
LFT EST
F(3) 6 H(1) I(3) 7 8
D(2) A(1) 2 B(4)
1
C(2)
J(2) 3
To find the Critical Path
5 E(3) G(2) 4
0 0 0 1
LFT EST
F(3) 6 H(1) I(3) C(2) 7 8
D(2)
1
A(1)
2 B(4)
J(2) 3
To find the Critical Path
0 3
LFT EST
5 E(3) G(2) 4 F(3) 6 H(1) I(3) C(2) 7 8
0 0
1
A(1)
0 1
D(2)
2 B(4)
J(2) 3
To find the Critical Path
0 3
5 E(3) 4
0 6
LFT EST
G(2) F(3) 6 H(1) I(3) C(2) 7 8
0 0
1
A(1)
0 1
D(2)
2 B(4)
J(2) 3
To find the Critical Path
0 3
5 E(3) 4
0 6
LFT EST
G(2) F(3)
0 8
0 0
1
A(1)
0 1
D(2)
6
H(1) I(3) 7 8
2 B(4)
C(2)
J(2) 3
To find the Critical Path
0 3
5 E(3) 4
0 6
LFT EST
G(2) F(3)
0 8
0 0
1
A(1)
0 1
D(2)
6
H(1)
0 9
I(3)
2 B(4)
C(2)
7
8
J(2) 3
To find the Critical Path
0 3
5 E(3) 4
0 6
LFT EST
G(2) F(3)
0 8
0 0
1
A(1)
0 1
D(2)
6
H(1) 7
0 9
I(3)
2 B(4)
8
C(2)
0 5
J(2)
3
To find the Critical Path
0 3
5 E(3) 4
0 6
LFT EST
G(2) F(3)
0 8
0 0
1
A(1)
0 1
D(2)
6
H(1)
0 9
0 12
I(3)
2 B(4)
C(2)
7
8
0 5
J(2)
3
To find the Critical Path
0 3
5 E(3) 4
0 6
LFT EST
G(2) F(3)
0 8
0 0
1
A(1)
0 1
D(2)
6
H(1)
0 9
12 12
I(3)
2 B(4)
C(2)
7
8
0 5
J(2)
3
To find the Critical Path
0 3
5 E(3) 4
0 6
LFT EST
G(2) F(3)
0 8
0 0
1
A(1)
0 1
D(2)
6
H(1)
9 9
12 12
I(3)
2 B(4)
C(2)
7
8
0 5
J(2)
3
To find the Critical Path
0 3
5 E(3) 4
0 6
LFT EST
G(2) F(3)
8 8
0 0
1
A(1)
0 1
D(2)
6
H(1)
9 9
12 12
I(3)
2 B(4)
C(2)
7
8
0 5
J(2)
3
To find the Critical Path
0 3
5 E(3) 4
6 6
LFT EST
G(2) F(3)
8 8
0 0
1
A(1)
0 1
D(2)
6
H(1)
9 9
12 12
I(3)
2 B(4)
C(2)
7
8
0 5
J(2)
3
To find the Critical Path
3 3
5 E(3) 4
6 6
LFT EST
G(2) F(3)
8 8
0 0
1
A(1)
0 1
D(2)
6
H(1)
9 9
12 12
I(3)
2 B(4)
C(2)
7
8
0 5
J(2)
3
To find the Critical Path
3 3
5 E(3) 4
6 6
LFT EST
G(2) F(3)
8 8
0 0
1
A(1)
1 1
D(2)
6
H(1)
9 9
12 12
I(3)
2 B(4)
C(2)
7
8
0 5
J(2)
3
To find the Critical Path
3 3
5 E(3) 4
6 6
LFT EST
G(2) F(3)
8 8
0 0
1
A(1)
1 1
D(2)
6
H(1)
9 9
12 12
I(3)
2 B(4)
C(2)
7
8
10 5
J(2)
3
Critical Path
5 E(3) G(2) 4
0 0 1 1 6 6
3 3
F(3)
8 8
D(2)
6
H(1)
1
A(1)
9 9
12 12
I(3)
2 B(4)
C(2)
7
8
10 5
J(2)
Critical Path 124²5²6²78
3
Critical Path A²B ²E²G²HI
CPM  Example
Critical Path 124²5²6²7²8 Critical Path A²B ²E²G²HI Project Completion Time = 12 months
PERT
Probabilistic Three
estimates
² to (a) ² optimistic time ² tp (b) ² pessimistic time ² tl (m) ² most likely time
Q !
Mean
= (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
2
Variance
= [(tp ² to)/6]2
PERT ² Example: Construct Project network, find the expected
duration and variance for each activity & find the critical path and expected project completion time Activity A B C D E F G H I J K Predecessor A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2 b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8
PERT ² Example:
Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
Activity Predece ssor A B C D E F G H I J K A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2
Variance
b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8
2
= [(tp ± to)/6]2 [(t
µ te 7
PERT ² Example:
Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
Activity Predece ssor A B C D E F G H I J K A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2
Variance
b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8
2
= [(tp ± to)/6]2 [(t
µ te 7 3
PERT ² Example:
Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2
Variance
b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8
2
= [(tp ± to)/6]2 [(t
µ te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3
2
PERT ² Example:
Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2
Variance
b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8
2
= [(tp ± to)/6]2 [(t
µ te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3
2
0.11
PERT ² Example:
Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2
Variance
b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8
2
= [(tp ± to)/6]2 [(t
µ te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3
2
0.11 1.78
PERT ² Example:
Mean µ = (to + 4* tl + tp)/6
Activity Predecessor A B C D E F G H I J K A A,B C C E,F E,F D,H G,I a 6 1 1 1 1 1 2 4 4 2 2 m 7 2 4 2 2 5 2 4 4 5 2
Variance
b 8 9 7 3 9 9 8 4 10 14 8
2
= [(tp ± to)/6]2 [(t
µ te 7 3 4 2 3 5 3 4 5 6 3
2
0.11 1.78 1.00 0.11 1.78 1.78 1.00 0 1.00 4.00 1.00
To find the Critical Path
LFT EST
6 6
2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3
D(2) E(3) F(5) G(3) H(4) I(5) J(6) K(3)
To find the Critical Path
LFT EST
6 6
D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3
6
E(3) F(5) G(3) H(4) I(5) J(6) K(3)
To find the Critical Path
LFT EST
6 6
D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 E(3) 5
6 F(5) G(3) H(4) I(5) J(6) K(3)
To find the Critical Path
LFT EST
6 6
D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) E(3) 5
6
G(3) H(4) I(5) J(6) K(3)
To find the Critical Path
LFT EST
6 6
D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) G(3) E(3) 5
6
H(4) I(5) J(6) 7 K(3)
To find the Critical Path
LFT EST
6 6
D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) G(3) E(3) 5 H(4)
6
I(5) J(6) 7 K(3)
To find the Critical Path
LFT EST
6 6
D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) I(5) G(3) E(3) 5 H(4)
6
J(6) 7 K(3)
To find the Critical Path
LFT EST
6 6
D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) I(5) G(3) E(3) 5 H(4)
6 J(6) 8
7
K(3)
To find the Critical Path
LFT EST
6 6
D(2) 2 A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4 3 F(5) G(3) E(3) 5 I(5) H(4)
6 J(6) 8 K(3)
7
To find the Critical Path
7 7 14 14
LFT EST
D(2)
7 7
2
0 0
6 H(4) J(6)
20 20
A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4
5
E(3) 5 F(5) G(3)
3
10 10
8 K(3)
15 17
I(5) 7
4
7 7
14 14
D(2)
7 7
2
0 0
6 H(4) J(6)
20 20
A(7) B(3) 1 C(4) 4
5
E(3) 5 F(5) G(3)
3
10 10
8 K(3)
15 17
I(5) 7
4
Critical path 1 ± 2 ± 3 ± 5 ± 6 ± 8 Critical path A ± Dummy ± E ± H ± J
PERT  Example
What is the probability of completing the project within 25 weeks? Activities Variance A Dummy E H J 0.11 0 1.78 0 4
= 5.89 = ¥( 2) = 2.43 Ts (Scheduled time) = 25 weeks Z = (Ts ± Te) / = (25 ± 20) / 2.43 From z table (normal table) z(2.06) = 97.68 %
2
= 2.06
PERT  Example
What is the probability of completing the project within 15 weeks? Activities A Dummy E H J
Variance 0.11 0 1.78 0 4
= 5.89 = ¥( 2) = 2.43 Ts (Scheduled time) = 15 weeks Z = (Ts ± Te) / = (15 ± 20) / 2.43 = 2.06 From z table (normal table) z(2.06) = 100  97.68 % = 2.02 %
2
Limitations of CPM/PERT
Clearly defined, independent and stable activities Specified precedence relationships Over emphasis on critical paths
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