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MOSt Advisor

Monthly Markets Newsletter

March 2016

In This Issue
Market Outlook for the month
Equity Market Outlook
Derivatives & Commodities Market Outlook

Key




Highlights for the Month


Budget -BHARAT focus + Infra-push + Pay commission drivers
3.5% fiscal deficit = lower rates?
Taxing times for the Rich

Large Cap and Mid Cap Investment Ideas

Dear Investor,

Model Advisory Portfolios

Market performance: Frontline Indices ended February

Recommended Funds

with a 7% loss and a 12.2% loss YTD. Midcaps have been


butchered and are now at attractive valuations as are

Tax Free Bonds

sectors such as Banking, Metals and Capital Goods.

Global Market
Index

29-Feb-16

MoM (%)

YoY(%)

Sensex

23,002

-7.5

-21.7

Nifty

6,987

-7.6

-21.5

FTSE

6,097

0.2

-12.2

Dow

16,517

0.3

-8.9

Nasdaq

4,558

-1.2

-8.2

Hang Sang

19,112

-2.9

-23.0

Budget 2016-17: 11% Net Tax revenue growth looks


realistic and is lower than our assumption of 21% income
tax growth for NIFTY companies. Expenditure focus is on Rural (especially Agriculture),
Infrastructure and INR75000cr Pay Commission payout. All these have potential to
raise consumer spend and dirve demand in consumer and economy-related sectors.
The Pay Commission payout can add 0.7% to GDP or 1% factoring in a conservative
1.5x turn of this money flow. The lower capitalization for banks was the only
disappointment, but "Outside-the-budget" measure make up for the disappointment.
Fiscal prudence@3.5%: Lower net borrowings (INR4.3 Lakh crore) for FY17 will
aid lower interest rates , spur consumption, and reduce interest costs for debt heavy
companies. Cyclicals tend to get fired-up by such measures and beaten-down stocks

Economic Pulse
Key Indicators Current Month

Change (%)

IIP

-1.3%

WPI

-0.90%

10 Year Yield

7.62%

-2.06

USD/ INR

68.42

0.93

Crude ($)

35.97

3.54

Gold (10 gms)

29181

9.57

Thought for the month

could lead the upmove initially. FD investors should lock into rates before April'16,
when Banks are expected to cut base rates by 40-50bps.
Taxing times for the Rich: The Budget raised surcharge on 1CR+ salary from 12%
to 15%, raised service tax to 15%, imposed a 1% luxury tax on large cars and a
1-4% Infra cess on cars\UVs, brought in perquisite tax on employer's PF contribution
>INR1.5Lakhs, and taxed dividends@10% >INR10Lakhs. This RICH tax is expected
to fund the BHARAT construction and support agenda. The Economic Survey presents
a road-map for future budgets to Tax the INR1Lakh cr subsidy paid to the Rich.
Outlook: Rate cut and consumption boom should drive earnings in FY17 and beyond.
Advance tax numbers on March 15th will be a reality check for 4Q performance.
In the interim, one could look at a Bounce-back that could become a fresh impulse.
Our Multi-Cap recommended portfolio offers 5 large-cap stocks for SIP investors and
our MIDCAP recommended portfolio is now available ~15% off the peak. A good
time to Build a portfolio just as our government looks to Build a strong Bharat.

Ravi Shenoy
Vice President

On This Page
Equity Market Outlook

MOSt Advisor

Markets & Our Recommendations

Monthly Markets Newsletter

March 2016

Equity Market Outlook


Technical Outlook

Nifty ended the month of February with a mammoth loss of 7.62% as it


shred around 577 points. Nifty drifted lower from the very beginning of

USDINR

the month but saw a Bullish Harami formation at the middle of the
month. The pattern remained intact despite the event volatility & defined
the consolidation range of 6850-7250.

Relative rotation study of the Global markets saw Nifty moving from the
underperforming to the neutral zone. USDINR has approached the upper
extreme of the Upward Sloping Channel which also coincides with the
2013 extreme & is emerging as an inflection zone. A price confirmation
could push the pair towards the lower extreme of the pattern which could

Nifty Weekly

activate the inverse correlation effect on the Nifty.

On the weekly scale sustaining 'Bullish Harami' pattern despite the event
volatility coupled with Z score being at the lower extreme raises the odds
in favour of the bulls. But the big move would kick-in only post cross over
of 7250. Till then we may see a time correction with upper bound at 7250
and lower bound at the recent monthly low around 6850. In case of a
close below 6850 would void the set-up and could extend the drift.

Neutral set of cues were seen from open interest actively in stock futures,
which saw lack of carry forward, while short hedges got carried forward.

NIFTY Z-Score

Option writers seem too aggressive keeping the 7000 strike ( at the money)
highly congested. Option indicated immediate range of 6800-7200 also
coincides with consolidating range.

Amongst sectors energy remains firm within the outperforming zone while
realty on the other hand has evidence of further deterioration. Rest all the
major sectors still remain in the neutral zone awaiting a directional confirmation.

Detailed report available on- http://ftp.motilaloswal.com/emailer/Marketdiary/QuantitativeMonthly/MOStQuantitativeOutlookMonthly-March2016.pdf

Sectoral Highlights
Sector

Our Views

Energy

Positive

HPCL

Buy / 688

Midcap

Neutral

Pidilite

Buy / 586

IT

Neutral

Infy

Buy / 1084

NBFC

Neutral

HDFC

Buy / 1060

Note: #Technical view for 1 month perspective,

Top Pick

Recommendation/CMP

Data as on 29th February 2016

On This Page

MOSt Advisor
Monthly Markets Newsletter

Derivatives Market Outlook,


Commodities Market Outlook

Markets & Our Recommendations

March 2016

Derivatives Market Outlook


Rollovers for Stock futures were below average. But there was shedding seen in open interest which neutralizes directional bias
SECTORS OI

Nifty- Call Ratio Spread

Actionable
Sector Rollovers: Key notables: Among sectors Two Wheelers ( Bajaj-Auto and
Heromotoco) saw Short covering, Cement, Metal, Telecom see biggest unwinding

Buy Mar 7400 CE 1 Lot


Sell Mar 7700 CE 2 Lots

Target Profit: 14000


Stop Loss: 4600

Rollovers for the February expiry were more or less in


line with average, however the open interest was down
expiry over expiry. This reduced directional conviction
of the market pre-budget.

month but we did not see enough carry forward resulting into unwinding

PSU Banks, Metal & NBFC- Unwinding


Pharma, Power & Realty and Telecom : Mix of Short and Unwinding

Lower end 7200 and 7000 Puts remains strong support

In case of up move, Volatility Index is expected to


further cool-off. To take advantage of falling volatility,
Call Ratio Spread is recommended

Banks , Auto Ancillary and Engineering stocks saw carried forward shorts
Following are the sectors that saw shorts getting built-up for most part of the

Commodities Market Outlook


Crude Oil

Oil prices ended nearly flat in February but saw extremely choppy moves with prices touching almost $26 before recovering by the end of the
month as slowdown in US output coupled with talks about an output freeze by major producers helped. US oil output continues to dip, albeit
at a slower pace but a continuing decline in the oil rig count is raising hopes among the bulls.
U.S. shale oil production is expected to fall for an eighth straight month in March with output set to fall by nearly 93,000 bpd to 4.92 million.
North Dakota's oil output fell nearly 3% in December, the first drop in three months signaling that producers may have finally begun to curb
output. OPEC output also fell 0.8% m/m from the January's near record levels to 32.37 mbpd in February.
The major part of the recent rebound was also fueled by the decision by Saudi, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela to freeze output at January levels.
However, the success of this deal is largely contingent on Iran and Iraq supporting it as they are the ones with the highest incremental
production growth at this juncture.On the inventory side, US crude oil inventories are at a record 507.6 million barrels while product stocks at
Europe's Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp(ARA) hub remain at record highs. The inventory overhang is the biggest risk to price gains from here.
Demand outlook meanwhile looks cloudy as Asian oil demand was lower 0.6% m/m in January .While Chinese demand was strong in 2015,
the strength is unlikely to be the same this year with GDP and manufacturing activity slowing.
Looking ahead, even as the market action in oil has turned increasingly choppy, signs are that market has established a near term bottom and
we could see some more gains in the coming month.

On This Page
Large Cap Investment Ideas,
Mid Cap Investment Ideas

MOSt Advisor

Must Act

Monthly Markets Newsletter

March 2016

Large Cap Investment Ideas


Bajaj Finance, a subsidiary of Bajaj Finserv, is one of the largest consumer durables
financier in the country, and amongst the largest two wheeler and personal loans lender.
We believe the company continues to increase its market share in consumer business, as

Bajaj Finance
CMP*:

INR 5932

Target:

INR 7194

it has almost monopoly in some of the business like lifestyle financing.


We raise FY17/18 PAT by 8% each on the back of strong growth momentum.

BUY

Maintain Buy rating with a target price of INR 7,194.

Post de-regulation and sharp drop in crude prices, we expect marketing division profit-

HPCL

ability to grow rapidly and hence a higher valuation for HPCL.

CMP*:

INR 688

Target:

INR 1299

Of the three OMCs, HPCL's earnings are more sensitive to a change in the marketing
margin-given its higher ratio of marketing-to-refining volume.

BUY

An INR0.5/ltr increase in diesel marketing margin increases HPCL's FY16E EPS by 32%.
Hence, it would be the largest beneficiary of higher auto fuel margins.
We value HPCL at 5.5x for refining and 8x for marketing for a fair value of INR1,299.

Mid Cap Investment Ideas


Indiabulls Housing Finance is the fourth largest housing finance company in India with

Indiabulls Housing Finance


CMP*:

INR 575

Target:

INR 907

AUM of INR522b.
Market share gains will drive AUM growth of 24% CAGR for the next three years.
IHFL is the lowest levered HFCs (4.3x) and this will support growth without equity
dilution. Asset quality trend is likely to remain stable.

BUY

De-risked business model, good profitability and high dividend yield warrant premium.
We recommend to Buy with a target price of INR907.

Engineers India (EIL), a PSU, is the O&G consultant and executor for O&G projects for
ONGC, OIL, IOC, BPCL and HPCL.
Reduction in under-recovery for the Oil and gas sector due to lower crude prices and
decontrol of diesel and petrol prices has helped improve improve Oil PSU cash flows and
boost order flows for EIL.
The Euro-VI norms will entail spend to raise fuel standards and could bring in INR50008000cr consultancy orders and INR15000-20000 cr EPC orders for EIL.

Engineers India
CMP*:

INR 150

Target:

INR 265
BUY

We have a target of INR265 on the stock.


Data as on 29th February 2016

On This Page
MOSt Value, MOSt Velocity, MOSt Mid-Cap

MOSt Advisor

Build a Portfolio

Monthly Markets Newsletter

March 2016

MOSt Multi Cap - Model Portfolio for Investors


For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :

Long Term Investors


Few months to a year
Moderate Investors

We are recommending a MULTI-CAP approach instead of a MIDCAP


approach. The Multi-cap INVESTMENT portfolio will have the
following characteristics:

Scrip

MBP

Wtg. Sectoral Allocation

Portfolio requirement to INR 10 Lakhs

Ultratech Cement

2769

11.9

Bajaj Finance

5932

11.6

60% Large-caps and up to 40% in our MIDCAPs portfolio

Lupin

1755

11.2

15 companies to invest in at the maximum, 10 minimum

Hero Motocorp

2500

10.8

HDFC

1060

10.2

5 Large-caps that are suitable for SIP investments also

BPCL

769

10

1 Semi Large-cap from our MIDCAP portfolio

TVS Motors

268

4.4

Berger Paints

224

4.2

10 stocks in the MICAPS space

Indo Count Industries 835

3.6

Suprajit Engineering 130

3.5

Finolex cables

238

3.5

Repco Home Finance 568

3.1

Eveready Industries

221

3.1

Dish TV

68

2.5

Engineers India

150

2.1

Cash

4.3

Total

100

Adheres to our QGLP philosophy

MOSt Velocity 10 - Model Portfolio for Positional Traders


For Whom :
Investment Duration :
Risk Profile :
Scrip

MBP

Dish TV
Larsen & Toubro
Sun Pharma
ICICI Bank
Axis Bank
HDFC
Hindalco
HPCL
IOC
United Spirits
SBI
Titan Industries
Ultratech Cement
Zee Entertainment
Cash
Total

68
1076
854
190
376
1060
69
688
368
2651
159
317
2769
372

Medium Term Investors


Few months horizon
Moderate Investors
Wtg. Sectoral Allocation
10
10
10
7.5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
25
100

Returns

3mth

Portfolio -8.8%
BSE 200

6mth 12mth
-4.9% -7.0%

-10.9% -9.4% -18.9%

MOSt Mid Cap- Model Portfolio for Aggressive Investors


For Whom :

Long Term Investors

Investment Duration :

Few months to a year

Risk Profile :

Aggressive Investors

Scrip

MBP

Bajaj Finance

5932

TVS Motors

268

12.3

Berger Paints

224

11.6

Indocount Industries 835

10.2

Suprajit Engineering 130

9.9

Finolex cables

9.6

238

Wtg. Sectoral Allocation


12.7

Repco Home Finance 568

8.8

Eveready Industries

221

8.8

Dish TV

68

7.0

Engineers India

150

6.0

Cash

3.1

Total

100

Whats In
--

--

Data as on 29th February 2016

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MOSt Advisor

MOSt PMS, MOSt Mutual - Model Portfolio

Managed Funds

Monthly Markets Newsletter

March 2016

MOSt PMS

Top Holdings in Value Strategy

Value Strategy

Scrips

Value Strategy: - The Strategy aims to benefit from the Long term compounding effect on

Sun Pharmaceuticals Ltd.


Eicher Motors Ltd.
Bosch Ltd.
HDFC Bank Ltd.
Asian Paints Ltd.

investments done in good businesses, run by great business managers for superior wealth
creation.
Value Strategy has the investment style of buying Undervalued stock & Sell overvalued
stocks, irrespective of Index Movements.
Money multiplied by 17.80 times in just 12 years.
Rs 1 Cr invested in Value PMS in March 2003 is worth Rs. 17.80Crs vs. 6.91Crs in Nifty 50.
Since its inception, Value Strategy has delivered annualized returns of 24.92% vs. Nifty 50
returns of 16.11%, an outperformance of 8.81% (CAGR).

NTDOP Strategy
NTDOP Strategy:The strategy aims to deliver superior returns by investing in focused themes

Sector Allocation
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Banking & Finance
Pharmaceuticals
FMCG
Oil and Gas

% Holdings
12.52
11.68
8.13
7.85
7.14

% Holdings
29.24
23.46
12.52
7.14
6.62

Top Holdings in NTDOP Strategy


Scrips

% Holdings

he strategy aims to capitalize on the themes of Consumerism, Banking & Financial Services
& Infrastructure in the Indian Economy.

Bajaj Finance Ltd.


Eicher Motors Ltd.
HPCL
Page Industries Ltd.
Bosch Ltd.

13.73
13.10
10.76
7.40
6.74

Since its inception, NTDOP Strategy has delivered 15.43% annualized returns vs. 3.85% of

Sector Allocation

% Holdings

which are part of the next Trillion Dollar GDP growth opportunity. It aims to predominantly
invest in Mid Cap stocks with a focus on Identifying Emerging Stocks/Sectors.

Nifty Midcap 100, delivering an annualized alpha of 11.58%.

India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy


India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy: The Strategy aims to generate long term capital appreciation by creating a focused portfolio of high growth stocks having the potential to grow
more than the nominal GDP for next 5-7 years across market capitalization and which are
available at reasonable market prices.
Since its inception, India Opportunity Portfolio Strategy has delivered 10.51% annualized
returns vs. 6.31% of BSE 200, delivering an annualized alpha of 4.20%.

All the above figures are of a model client. Returns shown above are calculated on NAV method "Returns shown above are
post fees & expenses". Past performance may or may not be sustained in future.

Banking & Finance


Auto & Auto Ancillaries
FMCG
Oil and Gas
Pharmaceuticals

30.23
22.49
16.87
10.76
5.97

Top Holdings in IOP Strategy


Scrips
Bajaj Finance Ltd.
HPCL
Lupin Ltd.
Eicher Motors Ltd.
HDFC Bank Ltd.

Sector Allocation
Banking & Finance
Pharmaceuticals
Auto & Auto Ancillaries
Oil and Gas
Airlines

% Holdings
12.56
10.42
9.41
9.37
6.66

% Holdings
28.52
19.40
17.42
10.42
6.19
Data as on 29th February 2016

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MOSt Advisor

Investment Product

Tax Free Bonds

Monthly Markets Newsletter

March 2016

Tax Free Bonds

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