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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, March 29, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of March 21, 2016 through March 27, 2016 are among a national sample of 6,521 adults aged 18 and over,
including 5,741 registered voters (+/- 1.7%), 1,611 registered Republican voters (+/-3.4%) and 1,922 registered Democratic voters
(+/-2.9%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.
TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

Strongly disapprove
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

No answer
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]

3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Republican presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Republican nomination for president? [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]*

3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Jeb
Bush
4
4
3
3
4
4
3
6

Ben
Carson
8
8
8
8
7
7
8
8
9
9

Chris
Christie
2
3
3
3
3
3
4

Ted
Cruz
27
24
24
20
18
19
18
20
20
17
21
20
18

Carly
Fiorina
1
2
2
2
3
2
3

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
2
1
2
2
2

John
Kasich
18
16
12
9
7
8
7
3
3
3
2
2
2

Rand
Paul
2
3
3
3
3
2

Marco
Rubio
6
11
18
21
16
14
17
12
10
11
11
13

Rick
Santorum
1
1

Donald
Trump
48
45
44
39
40
36
38
35
39
39
38
38
35

Don’t
Know
7
8
7
6
6
7
6
5
4
9
5
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Democratic presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Democratic nomination for president ? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]*
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Don’t know
No answer
3/21 – 3/27
49
43
8
3/14 – 3/20
53
41
6
1
3/7 – 3/13
54
41
5
2/29 – 3/6
55
38
7
1
2/22 – 2/28
51
41
8
1
2/15 – 2/21
51
40
9
1
2/8 – 2/14
50
40
9
1
2/1 – 2/7
51
1
39
8
1
1/25 – 1/31
50
2
39
8
1
1/18 – 1/24
51
2
37
9
1
1/11 – 1/17
52
1
36
9
2
1/4 – 1/10
52
2
37
8
1
12/28 – 1/3
53
2
36
8
1
* From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016
Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?

And what are the chances that you will vote for the candidate you just selected in the Republican primary or caucus in your state?
[AMONG REP & REP LEANERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE]

3/21-3/27
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Absolutely certain I will
vote for this candidate

Large chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

50-50 chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

Small chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

No
answer

58
53
47
43
42
41
43
37
40
40
38

25
30
34
35
38
40
37
40
39
39
40

12
13
16
18
16
15
17
20
19
18
20

4
4
3
4
3
4
2
2
2
2
3

1
1
1
1
-

And what are the chances that you will vote for the candidate you just selected in the Democratic primary or
caucus in your state? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE]
Absolutely certain I will
vote for this candidate

Large chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

50-50 chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

Small chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

No
answer

64
60
57
53
55
55
52
49
50
51
48

22
25
27
28
28
28
31
32
32
31
33

10
11
12
15
14
13
14
16
15
15
15

3
4
3
4
2
3
2
3
2
3
3

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

3/21-3/27
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

In this list, who is your second choice for the Republican nomination for president in 2016? [AMONG REP & REP
LEANERS]

3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
12/28 – 1/3

Jeb
Bush
9

Ben
Carson
14
14
11

Chris
Christie
6

Ted
Cruz
28
25
20
19
22

Carly
Fiorina
5

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
3

John
Kasich
27
22
16
13
2

Rand
Paul
-

Marco
Rubio
9
20
23
13

Rick
Santorum
1

Donald
Trump
20
17
12
12
14

Don’t
Know
25
16
19
18
11

No
answer
1
10
1
1
-

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the Republican nomination for president in 2016?
[AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]

3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/8 – 2/14
2/1- 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
12/28 – 1/3

Jeb
Bush
3
2
3
5

Ben
Carson
1
2
2
2
2
5

Chris
Christie
1
1
2

Ted
Cruz
16
14
18
12
10
22
31
21
22

Carly
Fiorina
-

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
-

John
Kasich
4
3
3
1
1
2
1
1
1

Rand
Paul
-

Marco
Rubio
2
3
7
12
10
18
8
11

Rick
Santorum
-

Donald
Trump
79
78
74
77
71
56
42
62
49

No
answer
2
3
2
2
4
4
3
2
5

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the Democratic nomination for president in 2016?
[AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]

3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/8 -2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
12/28 – 1/3

Hillary Clinton

Martin O’Malley

Bernie Sanders

No answer

79
79
76
79
74
66
71
72
77

-

19
18
22
19
25
32
27
25
19

2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2

1
2

If Donald Trump wins the most delegates, but not a majority, do you think he should win the Republican nomination for
president? [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]

3/21 – 3/27

Yes

No

Don’t know

No answer

57

27

14

2

If Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were the candidates in November, would you: [AMONG ALL]

3/21 – 3/27

Be satisfied with
that choice

Seriously consider voting
for a third party candidate

Don’t
know

No answer

45

32

21

1

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of March 21, 2016 through March 27, 2016 was
conducted online among a national sample of 6,521 adults aged 18 and over, including 5,741 who say they are registered to vote.
Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform
each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census
Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of
sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error,
coverage error, and measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an
error estimate. The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.6 percentage point for the full sample and plus or
minus 1.7 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the
95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should
be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group

Unweighted N

Plus or minus

Total sample
Total RVs

6,521
5,741

1.6
1.7

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

1,611
1,922

3.4
2.9

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

547
812
935
1,415
1,599
1,213

5.4
4.5
4.3
3.5
3.3
3.8

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

4,795
555
579
592

1.9
5.7
5.5
5.4

Clinton voters
Sanders voters
Trump voters
Cruz voters

1,506
1,233
1,054
737

3.5
3.7
4.1
4.9