NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, April 5, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of March 28, 2016 through April 3, 2016 are among a national sample of 14,071 adults aged 18 and over,
including 12,116 registered voters (+/- 1.1%), 3,353 registered Republican voters (+/-2.2%) and 4,292 registered Democratic voters
(+/-1.8%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.
TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?

3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

Strongly disapprove
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?

3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

No answer
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]

3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Republican presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Republican nomination for president? [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]*

3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31

Jeb
Bush
4
4
3
3

Ben
Carson
8
8
8
8
7
7

Chris
Christie
2
3
3

Ted
Cruz
28
27
24
24
20
18
19
18
20
20

Carly
Fiorina
1
2
2

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
2

John
Kasich
18
18
16
12
9
7
8
7
3
3

Rand
Paul
2
3

Marco
Rubio
6
11
18
21
16
14
17
12

Rick
Santorum
1

Donald
Trump
45
48
45
44
39
40
36
38
35
39

Don’t
Know
9
7
8
7
6
6
7
6
5
4

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2

1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

4
4
3
6

8
8
9
9

3
3
3
4

17
21
20
18

2
3
2
3

-

1
2
2
2

3
2
2
2

3
3
3
2

10
11
11
13

1

39
38
38
35

9
5
5
5

1
1
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Democratic presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Democratic nomination for president ? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]*
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Don’t know
No answer
3/28 – 4/3
51
42
6
1
3/21 – 3/27
49
43
8
3/14 – 3/20
53
41
6
1
3/7 – 3/13
54
41
5
2/29 – 3/6
55
38
7
1
2/22 – 2/28
51
41
8
1
2/15 – 2/21
51
40
9
1
2/8 – 2/14
50
40
9
1
2/1 – 2/7
51
1
39
8
1
1/25 – 1/31
50
2
39
8
1
1/18 – 1/24
51
2
37
9
1
1/11 – 1/17
52
1
36
9
2
1/4 – 1/10
52
2
37
8
1
12/28 – 1/3
53
2
36
8
1
* From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016
Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?

And what are the chances that you will vote for the candidate you just selected in the Republican primary or caucus in your state?
[AMONG REP & REP LEANERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE]

3/28 – 4/3
3/21-3/27
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Absolutely certain I will
vote for this candidate

Large chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

50-50 chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

Small chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

No
answer

57
58
53
47
43
42
41
43
37
40
40
38

23
25
30
34
35
38
40
37
40
39
39
40

14
12
13
16
18
16
15
17
20
19
18
20

5
4
4
3
4
3
4
2
2
2
2
3

1
1
1
1
1
-

And what are the chances that you will vote for the candidate you just selected in the Democratic primary or
caucus in your state? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS WHO CHOSE A CANDIDATE]
Absolutely certain I will
vote for this candidate

Large chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

50-50 chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

Small chance I’ll vote
for the candidate

No
answer

65
64
60
57
53
55
55
52
49
50
51
48

21
22
25
27
28
28
28
31
32
32
31
33

10
10
11
12
15
14
13
14
16
15
15
15

4
3
4
3
4
2
3
2
3
2
3
3

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

3/28 – 4/3
3/21-3/27
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

In this list, who is your second choice for the Republican nomination for president in 2016? [AMONG REP & REP
LEANERS]

3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
12/28 – 1/3

Jeb
Bush
9

Ben
Carson
14
14
11

Chris
Christie
6

Ted
Cruz
27
28
25
20
19
22

Carly
Fiorina
5

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
3

John
Kasich
26
27
22
16
13
2

Rand
Paul
-

Marco
Rubio
9
20
23
13

Rick
Santorum
1

Donald
Trump
17
20
17
12
12
14

Don’t
Know
29
25
16
19
18
11

No
answer
1
10
1
1
-

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote? [AMONG ALL]

3/28 – 4/3

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat

Donald Trump, the
Republican

Don’t
know

No answer

45

33

20

1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote? [AMONG ALL]

3/28 – 4/3

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat

Ted Cruz, the Republican

Don’t
know

No answer

43

33

22

2

People experience and participate in the ongoing election campaigns in various ways. Thinking carefully, which
of the following applies to you over the past week? (Select all that apply.)

Donated
money to
a political
party or
candidate

Worked/
volunteered
for a
political
party or
candidate

Talked to
someone
about a
political
party or
candidate

Posted on
social
media (e.g.
Facebook,
Twitter)
about a
candidate

Saw an
advertisement
about a
candidate on
the internet

Attended a
political
rally or
event for a
party or
candidate

I did not
do, see, or
receive
anything
from a
party or
candidate

Received
a phone
call from
a political
campaign

Received
a piece of
mail from
a political
campaign

Received
an email
from a
political
campaign

Received
a house
visit from
a political
campaign

3/28 -4/3

8

3

55

23

14

25

28

2

52

43

4

16

2/8-2/14

8

2

52

21

11

22

28

2

51

39

3

17

1/18 – 1/24

7

2

45

18

9

18

24

1

43

35

3

22

1/11 – 1/17

8

2

48

19

9

20

26

1

44

36

3

20

1/4 – 1/10

7

2

48

18

11

22

27

2

47

36

3

20

12/28 -1/3

7

2

46

17

11

24

28

2

48

37

3

18

Saw an
advertisement
about a
candidate on
television

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of March 28, 2016 through April 3, 2016 was conducted
online among a national sample of 14,071 adults aged 18 and over, including 12,116 who say they are registered to vote.
Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform
each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census
Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of
sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error,
coverage error, and measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an
error estimate. The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.1 percentage point for the full sample and plus or
minus 1.1 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the
95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should
be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group

Unweighted N

Plus or minus

Total sample
Total RVs

14,071
12,116

1.1
1.1

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

3,353
4,292

2.2
1.8

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

1,304
1,832
2,166
3,021
3,260
2,488

3.3
2.8
2.7
2.2
2.2
2.5

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

9,947
1,449
1,464
1,211

1.3
3.0
3.1
3.4

Clinton voters
Sanders voters
Trump voters
Cruz voters

3,250
2,787
2,138
1,541

2.1
2.3
2.8
3.2