Aintree

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016
Introduction
Welcome to the final Update of the National Hunt season with the emphasis on the Crabbies Grand
National Festival at Aintree, which has an exciting extra dimension this year because the three days at the
end of the week will almost certainly determine the outcome of the Trainers championship. At the time of
writing, Paul Nicholls is 242,819 ahead of Willie Mullins, who cut the reigning champions lead
substantially during the course of the Cheltenham Festival when sending out 7 winners and earning
1,291,481 in prize-money over the four days. Nicholls responded with 3 winners and 209,189. The fact
Irelands champion has made 78 entries over the three day tells us he has set his stall out to claim the
title, which would be an astonishing achievement, considering he has only trained 17 winners in the UK
this winter, compared to Nicholls 101. The Grand National itself may be the defining race with the pair well
represented (10 runners between them), although Paul appears to hold the stronger hand with Silviniaco
Conti near the summit of the ante-post market.
As far as the big race itself is concerned, jumping enthusiasts are fully aware of the enforced modifications
to the fences in recent years, which have obviously altered the very nature of the race and it may not offer
quite the same spectacle as previously. While appreciating they have been made to prevent equine
fatalities and indeed to save the race itself, it always seems puzzling when other sports, such as boxing
when a fighter may suffer brain damage or worse, retain their status quo regardless of what may or may
not have happened in the ring etc.
Thankfully, the Cheltenham Update proved to be a successful one with 9 winners, including the likes of
Superb Story (advised @ 14/1), Diamond King (12/1) and Diego Du Charmil (13/2). Indeed, the handicaps
served us well having predicted the winners of the Coral Cup (1 st & 2nd), County Hurdle, Kim Muir and Fred
Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle and, with a bit more luck, If In Doubt would have won the Pertemps Final
comfortably. Although I selected Don Cossack in the Gold Cup following the defection of Vautour, one
couldnt help feeling a touch of what might have been. As regular subscribers will be aware, during the last
couple of years, I have recommended backing Gordon Elliotts stable star ante-post for the RSA Chase in
2014 and this seasons King George as part of the Email Service. On the first occasion, he fell at the
fourteenth and the race was dominated by OFaolains Boy and Smad Place the pair finished sixth and
seventh (over 38 lengths behind) in last months Gold Cup. Secondly, he was staying on at Kempton when
hitting the deck at the penultimate fence and, given his abundance of stamina, he may well have prevailed
there, too. As stated in previous Updates, Elliott and his team have done a superb job with the nine year
old because his confidence looked shot to bits following a crunching fall as a novice hurdler at Navan in
late 2012. Nurtured back, it took him a long time to get over that but he has looked a different horse during
the last two seasons and his victory in steeplechasings Blue Riband is richly deserved for all concerned.
Vautour was, of course, rerouted to the Ryanair Chase twenty four hours earlier and, for the third
successive year, produced another stunning display. While it was obviously disappointing to see him
swerve the big one because racegoers and enthusiasts want to see the best horses run in the best races,
connections did what they thought was best for the horse, even if it was a last minute decision. Owner
Rich Ricci took the brunt of the criticism having stated a few weeks earlier, that Vautour would contest the
Cheltenham Gold Cup or stay at home, at a preview night. However, if people want to start going down
that path it is worth asking the question, who was the person who revealed on Racing UK at Ascot in
November that Annie Power had met with a setback? There had been no mention of it by her trainer in his
weekly Racing Post column and I suspect there wouldnt have been in the foreseeable future either. Rich
Ricci has been a breath of fresh air during the last few years, with his media appearances, and has given
us an insight into a number of the Mullins trained stars we wouldnt have otherwise gleaned.
Finally, I would like to thank all subscribers for your continued support this winter. The Updates have
proved very successful with the likes of Minella Foru winning the Paddy Power Chase at Christmas,
Cheltenham was good and fingers crossed Gallant Oscar can round things off with victory in the Grand
National on Saturday. Thank you also to chief contributors Anthony Bromley and Declan Phelan, plus the
aforementioned Rich Ricci, who have all enjoyed excellent seasons. Min didnt quite manage it in the
Supreme Novices Hurdle but he gave us a hell of a run for our money and an awful lot of enjoyment (and
anxiety) over seven months.
The AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL

1
MEETING 2016
Thursday 7th Saturday 9th April
Every race live on Racing UK (Sky Channel 432)
Day 1 - THURSDAY 7th APRIL
1.40 MERSEYRAIL MANIFESTO NOVICES CHASE (Grade 1)

5yo 2m 4f
Leading Contenders:
* ARZAL is considered more likely to run in the two miles novice chase on Saturday but has the option of
stepping up in trip here. Indeed, the six year old hasnt raced over two and a half miles since he was
trained in France (finished second twice) all eleven of his races for Harry Whittington have been over
two miles. Rated 151 and twice a winner over fences this term at Ludlow and Newbury, he won novices
handicaps off marks of 129 and 136 before finishing third behind Ar Mad in the Wayward Lad Novices
Chase at Kempton over Christmas. Three and a quarter lengths second behind Vaniteux at Doncaster in
January, he purposely missed the Cheltenham Festival to be kept fresh for this. A naturally free going type,
the track ought to suit but it is a case of whether the trip will.
* GARDE LA VICTOIRE was rated 154 over hurdles and has reached a mark of 151 over fences having
won three of his four races. Philip Hobbs Greatwood Hurdle winner scored at Uttoxeter, Cheltenham and
Ludlow earlier in the campaign and was still going OK when falling at the fourth last in the JLT Novices
Chase at Cheltenham last month. The stable have won this with Wishfull Thinking (2011) and Menorah
(2012) and the seven year old remains unexposed over the trip (14F). Relatively fresh having only raced
twice since November, his course form reads 13 (unfortunate not to be unbeaten at Aintree). His form
figures at Grade 1 level (40F) are not very inspiring but he didnt get the opportunity to show what he is
capable of last time.
* LAMI SERGE was a Grade 1 winning novice hurdler last season before finishing fourth in the Supreme
Novices Hurdle. Treated for a trapped epiglottis during the summer, the six year old won his first two starts
over fences at Plumpton and Wetherby before disappointing in the Kingmaker NC at Warwick in February.
However, he was back to form last time when four lengths third in the JLT NC at the Festival. He held
every chance when hitting the front two out before his stamina appeared to give way after the last. Simon
Munirs racing manager Anthony Bromley confirmed to me on Monday the gelding runs here in preference
to the Maghull NC on Saturday. Nicky Henderson has won the race in the past with Mad Max (2010) and
Captain Conan (2013).
* SHANESHILL is rated 155 over fences having won at Thurles (2m 2f) and Naas (2m) and finished a very
good half length second in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham. It is the third time the Kings Theatre gelding
has finished runner-up at the Festival. Having previously disappointed in the Lightning NC at Doncaster in
January (all the stables runners performed poorly that day), he was back to form over three miles behind
Blacklion at Prestbury Park. The seven year old is inclined to make mistakes and the longer distance gave
him more time at his fences. Two and a half miles on drying ground at Aintree will place much more
emphasis on speed and it will severely test his jumping that may prove his undoing. His record over 2m
4f is 3121 and his partnership with Ruby Walsh reads 2121311. A Grade 1 winner, the trip and ground will
be ideal it all depends on his jumping.
* SIZING JOHN will be tackling a trip beyond two miles one for the first time in his career but Henry De
Bromheads Grade 1 winning hurdler is a half-brother to Scholastica, who won over 2m 5f. A dual winner
over fences at Punchestown earlier in the season, he has suffered five defeats over obstacles (hurdles
and fences) during his career and, on each occasion, it has been at the hands of Douvan. Third in last
seasons Supreme NH, he chased home the same rival in the Arkle Chase last month. Beaten seven
lengths, he was tapped for speed before staying on. The stable have Alisier DIrlande lined up for the
Maghull NC, so it makes sense to step the six year old up in distance here and avoid his old rival. If he
stays, he has major claims.
CONCLUSION: At the time of writing, the final field has yet to be revealed but I feel GARDE LA
VICTOIRE (11/2 Paddy Power) and SIZING JOHN (5/1 Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor, Stan James) offer
very solid each-way value and the pair will be shorter on the day.
2.15 BETFRED ANNIVERSARY 4-Y-0 JUVENILE HURDLE

(Grade 1)
4yo 2m 1f
TRENDS:
12 of the last 13 winners ran at least three times over hurdles.

12 of the last 13 winners had contested a GRADED HURDLE (7 of the last 10 had won such
a race).
FAVOURITES have won 7 of the last 12 renewals (although there have been 33/1 (2003),
25/1 (2004), 40/1 (2010) & 16/1 (2015) winners in recent years).
ALAN KING has won the race 4 times in the last 9 years.
PAUL NICHOLLS has won 2 of the last 5 renewals.
Leading Contenders:
* APPLES JADE won her only start at Vichy in France when trained by Emmanuel Clayeux before joining
Willie Mullins. A head winner on her Irish debut in a Grade 2 event at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, she
beat subsequent Grade 1 winner Jers Girl with Footpad back in third. The Saddler Maker filly lost her
unbeaten record in the Triumph Hurdle but she ran a mighty race in second behind Ivanovich Gorbatov.
Beaten a length and a quarter, she handles any ground and has only had one race since the end of
December. Irish trained winners this century include Al Eile (2004) and Guitar Pete (2014) and the likes of
Bilboa (2001) and LUnique (2013) have won it for the fairer sex during the same time period. She is a
very smart filly.
* DIEGO DU CHARMIL was placed in all three of his starts over hurdles in France for Arnaud ChailleChaille. Paul Nicholls purposely kept him back for the Fred Winter HH at Cheltenham preserving his mark
of 133 in the process. A head winner from stablemate Romain De Senam, he travelled strongly and, while
he may have been deemed a fortunate winner (Campeador & Voix Du Reve both fell at the last when
challenging), I feel he will be more at home on this track than Cheltenham. Interestingly, the gelded son of
Ballingarry is a half-brother to Days of Heaven, who is also better suited by a level track. Rated 140, he
needs to improve but it wouldnt be a surprise if he did. The champion trainer has won this with Le Duc
(2003), Zarkandar (2011) and All Yours (2015).
* FOOTPAD was runner-up at Auteuil when handled by Robert Collet in France. A three times winner for
Willie Mullins since, he scored twice at Gowran before capturing a Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at
Leopardstown in February. A two and three quarters of a length winner, he then finished third in the
Triumph Hurdle. Outpaced early on, he struggled to lie up with the principals before staying on at the
death. Rated 145, he is clearly very good but there must be a concern he will be tapped for speed on such
a track, especially if the ground continues to dry out.
* FRODON has plenty of experience having raced seven times over hurdles. A winner at Auteuil for
Guillaume Macaire, he has only raced three times for Paul Nicholls (rated 139). A three parts of a length
scorer from Fixe La Kap in the Victor Ludorum Hurdle at Haydock in February, he could only finish eighth
in the Triumph Hurdle last time. Beaten seventeen lengths, the Nickname gelding has to improve
significantly upon that effort to win here but it is possible he may be more at home on a flat track and it is
worth remembering stablemate All Yours won this race last year off a mark of only 138.
* IVANOVICH GORBATOV won two of his three races on the Flat, earning an official mark of 103.
Switched to hurdles, Aidan OBriens Montjeu gelding made an impressive start to his new career when
beating Lets Dance by two and a quarter lengths at Leopardstowns Christmas fixture. Reportedly
unsuited by bottomless ground at the same track in Grade 1 company in February, he relished the drier
conditions in the Triumph Hurdle when beating Apples Jade by a length and a quarter. Conditions ought to
be ideal and he has every chance of emulating Detroit City (2006), Katchit (2007) and Zarkandar (2011) by
completing the Triumph/Aintree double.
* LETS DANCE is a high-class juvenile hurdler but there is no obvious reason why she will turn the tables
on Ivanovich Gorbatov having suffered two defeats at the hands of Aidan OBriens charge. The exGuillaume Macaire trained filly has yet to win in four starts over hurdles but she has run well twice in
Grade 1 company. Third behind Footpad at Leopardstown in February, she was then fourth in the Triumph
Hurdle at Cheltenham. However, she was fourteen and a half lengths behind the winner that day. I suspect
she will come into her own over further in time.
* ROMAIN DE SENAM is yet another ex-Macaire trained juvenile. An easy winner at Wincanton in
October on his first run for Paul Nicholls, he has suffered four subsequent defeats. However, the Saint Des
Saints gelding produced a career best effort last time when a head second in the Fred Winter HH behind
stablemate Diego Du Charmil off a mark of 136. He settled much better on that occasion and this speedy
track ought to play to his strengths even though he has plenty to find on the book with a rating of 141.
Good ground is ideal and he could run well at a big price he has a similar profile to last years winner All
Yours.
* SCEAU ROYAL was bitterly disappointing in the Triumph Hurdle only finishing twelfth behind Ivanovich
Gorbatov. Beaten 25 lengths, his stable endured a lean spell during March with only 2 winners from 49
runners. Earlier in the season, the Doctor Dino gelding had won at Warwick, Cheltenham and Huntingdon.
On the pick of his form, he has solid each-way claims and Alan King has won this race four times (Katchit
(2007), Walkon (2009), Grumeti (2012) & LUnique (2013)). It is a case of forgiving his latest run.
* VOIX DU REVE won over hurdles at Nancy and Enghien in France before joining Irelands champion
trainer. Half a length second in a Grade 3 hurdle at Fairyhouse in February, he would have gone very
close in the Fred Winter HH at Cheltenham but crashed out at the final flight. Sporting a hood for the first
time, he had crept into contention and was produced at the right time by Ruby Walsh only to pay the
penalty and hit the deck. Rated 139, he is unexposed and it is difficult to say what he is capable of.
However, he warrants plenty of respect.
CONCLUSION: There have been upsets in the race in recent years with Orsippus (40/1 in 2010),
LUnique (10/1 in 2013) and All Yours (16/1 last year) all scoring at double figure odds. However,
IVANOVICH GORBATOV has looked a class act in two of his three races this season. He can follow in the
hoofprints of Detroit City, Katchit and Zarkandar by completing the Cheltenham/Aintree double.
2.50 BETFRED BOWL CHASE (Grade 1)

5yo + 3m 1f
TRENDS:
24 of the last 26 winners had winning form over 3 MILES.

21 of the last 27 winners ran at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL.
In the last 13 years, 44 horses who contested the CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP ran, with 7
winning (including SILVINIACO CONTI during the last two years).
16 of the last 27 winners ran in the CHELTENHAM GOLD CUP.
5 of the last 11 winners ran in the KING GEORGE during the same season.
19 of the last 23 winners had run AT LEAST 13 times over fences.
17 of the last 23 winners were in the FIRST THREE in the BETTING.
Only 2 FAVOURITES have won since 2001 (EXOTIC DANCER (2007) & SILVINIACO CONTI
(2015)).
17 of the last 24 winners had won earlier in the season, 15 of which were over 3 MILES.
11 of the last 20 winners had won a GRADE 1 CHASE earlier in their career.
Only 3 of the last 26 winners had won LAST TIME OUT.
Ireland have won the race TWICE in the last four years.
Leading Contenders:
* CUE CARD was treated for a trapped epiglottis during the summer and has proved a revelation this
season winning the Charlie Hall and Betfair Chases at Wetherby and Haydock respectively, plus the King
George at Kempton on Boxing Day. Colin Tizzards gelding was therefore in line for the 1 million bonus if
winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The ten year old had just hit the front when crashing out at the third
last fence. It is impossible to say where he would have finished but he certainly appeared to be going well.
Reportedly none the worse for the tumble, his official rating has climbed from 160 to 176 this season. A six
times Grade 1 winner, his record at Aintree reads 1222 and his form figures at the Grand National meeting
are 222 (2m 4f NH, Melling Chase x 2).
* DJAKADAM (rated 170) finished runner-up in the Cheltenham Gold Cup for the second consecutive
year last month when four and a half lengths behind Don Cossack. The seven year old had won the John
Durkan Memorial Chase over two and a half miles at Punchestown by a dozen lengths in December
before falling in the Betbright Chase at Cheltenham in January. Drying ground on a sharp track is a minor
concern but he is a top-class chaser, who is still relatively unexposed, and Willie Mullins won this with
Florida Pearl in 2002. His record at Grade 1 level is 4F2212.
* DON POLI has won 5 of his 7 races over fences and is rated 165. A four lengths winner from Many
Clouds over C&D in a Listed chase in December, receiving five pounds, he followed up in the Lexus
Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. Only third in the Gold Cup last time, he struggled to lie up with
the principals on the drying ground before staying on at the finish. That is a worry here, too, but he is
reunited with Bryan Cooper (7 from 8) and at least he has proved effective at the track in the past. A three
times Grade 1 winner, I am expecting him to go close.
* SAPHIR DU RHEU is trained by Paul Nicholls, who is seeking his fifth win in the race (See More
Business (2000), What A Friend (2010), Silviniaco Conti (2014, 2015)). An impressive fifteen lengths
winner of the Grade 1 Mildmay NC at this meeting twelve months ago, he won the Colin Parker Memorial
Chase at Carlisle in November but things havent gone to plan since. Fifth in the Hennessy Gold Cup at
Newbury, he was then switched back to the smaller obstacles but was well held in the Long Walk Hurdle at
Ascot in December. Found to be suffering with a breathing problem, he underwent a wind operation soon
afterwards. However, the seven year old failed to fire in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham only finishing
sixth (beaten 44 lengths). A return to chasing may bring about improvement but he arrives with a question
mark against him.
CONCLUSION: Nine runners have been declared but, realistically, it looks a three horse race with Cue
Card and Djakadam rightly heading the market. DON POLI (7/1 Betfred & Stan James) has ten lengths
to find with the latter but he is proven at the track and it will be disappointing if he cant justify each-way
support.
3.25 DOOM BAR AINTREE HURDLE (Grade 1)

4yo + 2 miles 4 furlongs
TRENDS:
21 of the last 26 winners had previously won over 2m 4f.

22 of the last 27 winners had RUN at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL.
16 of those 27 winners had run in the CHAMPION HURDLE beforehand.
17 of the last 19 winners had won a race EARLIER IN THE SEASON.
14 of the last 18 winners had raced between 9 and 17 times over hurdles.
17 of the last 20 winners had been AGED between 6 & 8.
Only 2 FIVE YEAR OLDS (AL EILE in 2005 & SOLWHIT in 2009) have won since 1985.
IRISH TRAINED RUNNERS have won the race 7 times in the last 13 years.
Only 1 OUTRIGHT FAVOURITE (The New One (2014)) has won since 1999, although
RHINESTONE COWBOY (2004) & AL EILE (2008) were JOINT FAVOURITES.
Leading Contenders:
* ANNIE POWER bids to become the third mare to win this since 1984 following in the hoofprints of Dawn
Run and Asian Maze (2006 ridden by Ruby Walsh). The daughter of Shirocco has won 11 of her 13
races over timber and is rated 162. An easy winner at Punchestown in February, she tackled the minimum
trip for the first time in over two years when winning the Champion Hurdle by four and a half lengths.
Racing prominently, Willie Mullins mare powered away rounding the home turn before staying on strongly
to beat My Tent Or Yours. A four times Grade 1 winner, her record over two and a half miles is 11F1. The
fact she has only raced twice this term is another plus.
* COURT MINSTREL bids to become the first winning nine year old since Morley Street in 1993 (although
Mister Morose won the race as a ten year old in 2000). Rated 157, he is a six times winner over hurdles,
including the Scottish Champion Hurdle in 2013. Evan Williams gelding won the Silver Trophy at
Chepstow in October off a mark of 149 beating subsequent dual winner Rock The Kasbah in the process.
Two and a half lengths second behind Rock On Ruby in the Ascot Hurdle, he then finished third in a
twelve furlongs event at Lingfield on the Flat in January. Unexposed over the trip (12), his record at Grade
1 level suggests he will struggle (44546). However, he invariably comes good at this time of year because
he needs good ground and his form figures at this meeting are 414 (4 th in the bumper, won the conditional
jockeys HH & fourth in the Maghull NC).
* MY TENT OR YOURS had been off the track for over 700 days prior to finishing second in the Champion
Hurdle behind Annie Power last month. Indeed, it was the second time Nicky Hendersons gelding had
gained the silver medal in hurdlings Blue Riband (also in 2014) and the third time he had finished second
at the Festival (runner-up in the Supreme NH). Inclined to be keen in his races, the Desert Prince gelding
will be going into unknown territory having not previously raced over further than two miles. The stable
won this in 2011 and 2012 with Oscar Whisky. The bounce factor could be an issue and he needs to
settle if he is going to stay the trip. This track will suit him more than Cheltenham though runner-up in the
bumper in 2012 and a sixteen lengths winner of the two mile NH in 2013.
* NICHOLS CANYON is rated 162 and is a six times Grade 1 winner. A four and a half lengths winner of
the Grade 1 two and a half miles novices hurdle at this meeting last year, these are very much his
conditions (ie. 2m 4f on a flat track on decent ground). The only horse to have beaten Faugheen when
landing the Morgiana Hurdle at Punchestown in November, Willie Mullins gelding followed up at
Leopardstown over Christmas when beating Identity Thief by a couple of lengths. Well held in the Irish
Champion Hurdle in January, he was back to form when around five lengths third in the Champion Hurdle
at Cheltenham. While he has ground to make up with Annie Power, he will be much more at home on this
track.
* THE NEW ONE was second in the race in 2013 before going one better the following year. Nigel
Twiston-Davies (won the race three times) gelding hasnt raced over this trip since but looks ready for a
return to a longer distance having finished fourth in the Champion Hurdle last time. A dual winner at
Kempton and Haydock earlier in the season, his record over 2m 4f is 112121 and his stable are in
splendid form (11 winners since the 20 th March). Rated 159, he has already won two Grade 1 events and
is hoping to join Daring Run (1981, 1982), Aonoch (1986, 1987), Danoli (1994, 1995) and Oscar Whisky
(2011, 2012) by winning the race twice.
CONCLUSION: Six runners go to post with Annie Power a short price favourite following her terrific
performance in the Champion Hurdle last time. She sets a formidable standard and it will take a very good
effort to beat her. I feel stablemate Nichols Canyon will offer the biggest threat but it is a race I would
rather sit out and watch.
4.05 CRABBIES FOX HUNTERS CHASE

6YO + 2m 5f 110yds
TRENDS:
12 of the last 13 winners had won over at least 2m 6f.

10 of the last 13 winners were AGED between 9 11 (SCOTS GREY (12yo) (2007), CLOUDY
LANE (12yo) (2012) & TARTAN SNOW (13yo) (2013) the exceptions)).
11 of the last 13 winners had won EARLIER IN THE SEASON.
9 of the last 11 winners finished in the FIRST THREE LAST TIME OUT.
11 of the last 13 winners came from the FIRST FOUR IN THE BETTING (SILVER ADONIS
(50/1) (2010) & TARTAN SNOW (100/1) (2013) the exceptions).
10 of the last 12 winners had race between 7 & 22 times over fences.
NO SELECTION
4.40 BETFRED RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE

(Grade 3)
5yo + 2 miles
TRENDS:
22 of the last 23 winners had won over the trip (STAN being the exception in 2008).
16 of the last 18 winners were OFFICIALLY RATED 129 143.
16 of the 20 winners have been AGED between 7 & 9 (OH CRICK (2009), SILK DRUM (2011),
EDGARDO SOL (2012) & OISEAU DE NUIT (2013) being the exceptions).
20 of the last 25 winners had WON a race during that season.
11 of the last 20 winners had WON AT LEAST 2 races earlier in the season.
12 of the last 25 winners had WON one of their latest 2 starts.
6 of the last 12 winners had run at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL.
13 of the last 16 winners carried NO MORE than 11st 2lb.
11 of the last 20 winners carried between 10st 7lb 11st 2lb.
7 of the last 27 winners have been OUT OF THE HANDICAP.
13 of the last 20 winners had run NO MORE than 9 times over fences.
11 of the last 20 winners were NOVICES (including 6 of the last 13).
FAVOURITES have won the race 4 times in the last 14 years (plus 1 CO-FAVOURITE).
11 of the last 18 winners were from the FIRST 5 in the BETTING.

2 of the last 11 winners completed the GRAND ANNUAL double (FOTA ISLAND (2005) & OH
CRICK (2009)) SOLAR IMPULSE won the 2016 Grand Annual.
Leading Contenders:
* CROCO BAY was five lengths third in the Grand Annual Chase at Cheltenham last season off a mark of
149 (now rated 147). Ben Cases gelding, unfortunately, fell at the water (6 th fence) in this years renewal.
A three times winner over fences, he was three and a half lengths third behind Simply Ned at Kelso in the
Autumn off a rating of 151, which gives him claims. Last in the Shloer Chase and Morebattle Hurdle in his
next two starts, he enjoys a strongly run two miles and handles most types of ground. The fact he has
pulled up on both visits to the track isnt ideal but one of those runs came in the Grade 1 Melling Chase
last season.
* KATACHENKO is officially rated 133 having won one of his six races over fences. A length scorer from
the ill-fated Mon Successeur at Wetherby in October off 128, he finished a very good second behind
Baltimore Rock at Doncaster over Christmas. Beaten two and a half lengths at Carlisle last time, it was his
first run for nearly three months and the seven year old didnt look at home racing right-handed. Better
ground will be in his favour and he can go well under Wayne Hutchinson (13). Donald McCain will be keen
to win the race for obvious reasons.
* MINELLA PRESENT had been saved for the Grand Annual Chase at Cheltenham but Neil Mulhollands
charge missed the cut. Rated 134, he has only raced a handful of times over fences winning at Fontwell in
June. Three and a quarter lengths second behind Violet Dancer (now rated 147) at Towcester in October,
he was conceding six pounds to Gary Moores horse, which makes him a very well handicapped horse. It
was therefore no surprise to see him run well on his handicap chase debut at Cheltenhams Paddy Power
in November when a length second behind Keel Haul off 130. Despite a four pounds rise since, he
remains well treated and arrives here on the back of a 146 days break. Suited by drying ground, the seven
year old will be ridden by Noel Fehily (323122). He must have very sound claims.
* SOLAR IMPULSE seeks to emulate Fota Island (2005) and Oh Crick (2009) by winning here following
success in the Grand Annual Chase at last months Cheltenham Festival. It was his first win since
November 2014 and the fitting of blinkers and drying ground appeared to work the oracle. A three and
three quarters of a length scorer, he has been raised nine pounds and is set to race off a career high
mark. Paul Nicholls won this with Edgardo Sol (2012) but the fact he is an infrequent winner is off putting
(2 wins from 11 starts over fences). The six year old has run once at the track finishing last of six in the
Grade 1 Maghull NC last year.
* THE GAME CHANGER could race off top weight (Katabatic (12st in 1992), Jeffell (12st in 1998) & Fota
Island (11st 10lb in 2005) and bids to become the fifth Irish trained winner since 1989 (only 1 since 1998).
The seven year old has improved since joining Gordon Elliott and has won six of his nine races over
fences this season. Those wins were gained between May and October and he won three Grade 3 events
at Roscommon, Tipperary and Punchestown. Absent from October until last month, the gelding ran well in
fourth in the Arkle Chase (hampered at the second last) behind Douvan. This flatter track will suit him and
it is worth remembering he finished runner-up in the conditional jockeys handicap hurdle at this meeting
last year. The fact the handicapper has dropped him three pounds since the Arkle is a bonus. Two miles
on a flat track on decent ground bring out the best in him. Six novices have won this in the last thirteen
years.
* VICONTE DU NOYER finished nearly eighteen lengths behind The Game Changer at Tipperary in
October but that was over two and a half miles. Henry De Bromheads gelding is arguably at his best over
the minimum trip and was a winner Killarney (twice) during the summer. Absent from October until last
month, the seven year old warmed up for this by finishing third over hurdles at Downpatrick. That run
should have put him spot on. He had some smart novice chase form a couple of seasons ago when third
behind Grade 1 winners Gilgamboa and Vautour.
CONCLUSION: My two against the field are MINELLA PRESENT and THE GAME CHANGER (wouldnt
want the ground to ease too much). If either are absent, I suggest replacing with KATACHENKO.
5.15 GOFFS NICKEL COIN MARES STANDARD OPEN

NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (Grade 2)
4 6yo 2m 209 yards
7
Leading Contenders:
Owned and bred by Graham Wylie, AUGUSTA KATE was a twenty three lengths winner on her debut at
Listowel in September. The Yeats mare followed up in a Listed event at Navan in November by seven
lengths and was sent off 7/2 favourite for the Cheltenham Festival bumper as a result. Five lengths
seventh behind Ballyandy, it was the first time she had encountered good ground (wins gained on
soft/heavy ground) and was tapped for speed before staying on. Out of the Grade 1 winning mare
Feathard Lady, she is hoping to become the third Irish trained winner of this (Candy Creek (2009) and
Legacy Gold (2013). It will be interesting to see how she copes with the ground because she may prefer
more ease underfoot.
COPPER KAY has won three of her five starts in bumpers and was an emphatic winner at Newton Abbot
in the Autumn. Even more impressive when beating her half-sister Which One Is Which at Cheltenham in
a Listed event at the Paddy Power meeting, she pulled readily clear to score by four and a half lengths.
Only sixth in a similar event at Sandown last month (conceded weight all round), she may not have
appreciated the testing conditions at the Esher venue. It would be no surprise to see Philip Hobbs mare
bounce back on a nicer surface.
Warren Greatrex feels the unbeaten LA BAGUE AU ROI is the best mare he has ever trained. The
daughter of Doctor Dino, who is a half-sister to stablemate Kaysersberg, has won all three of her starts,
including over course and distance in October. A seven length victor, the fourth that day was Harry Frys
subsequent Grade 2 winner Jessbers Dream (was beaten over sixteen lengths) and the form looks
strong. She then won a Listed bumper at Huntingdon in December by a handful of lengths and has been
saved for this ever since. While one or two of the yards horses have disappointed in recent weeks,
including at the Cheltenham Festival, Warren has trained seven winners since the 20 th March.
Philip Hobbs could also be represented by the twice raced LITTLE MISS POET. Another daughter of
Yeats, she was sent off 13/8 favourite on her debut in a twelve furlongs bumper at Newbury in December.
Beaten three and a quarter lengths by Harry Whittingtons Woolstone One, she had no trouble going one
better at Warwick in February when winning by a length and a quarter (third has won since). Both her
races have been on soft ground but she is considered a smart mare by her connections.
SHATTERED LOVE is featured in Declan Phelans Irish Pointers section (page 155) in One Jump Ahead
and here is what he said: Became the first progeny of the stallion Yeats to win a point to point when
recording a smooth success at Lemonfield (Soft) in March, a victory that could be deemed almost
flawless. Her dam has already produced two above average chasers, the 145 rated 9 times winner
Make A Track, and another 145 rated 2015 Festival winner Irish Cavalier. I have no doubt Shattered
Love will make her presence felt in black type mares only Graded races. Making her belated Rules
debut at Naas last month, she didnt disappoint when beating Freeway Space by three and a half lengths.
Considered weak by Gordon Elliott, she has only raced on slow ground but there is no doubting her
potential.
THEATRE TERRITORY features amongst the Top 40 Prospects in OJA (page 40) having been bought for
200,000 last spring. The former winning Irish pointer, who is a half-sister to Glencove Marina, finished
third behind Copper Kay in a Listed bumper at Cheltenham in November before chasing home
Tearsofclewbay at Ascot in February. The winner has since finished fourth in the Listed bumper at
Sandown in March. Both her races under Rules have been on slow ground and the Kings Theatre mare
will appreciate this livelier surface (won her point on good/yielding). Nicky Henderson won the race eight
years ago with Caroles Legacy and a bold showing is expected from the six year old.
THE NIPPER is another string to Warren Greatrexs bow and, like her stablemate La Bague Au Roi, she is
unbeaten in three races. The Scorpion mare won twice at Bangor, including in November, before capturing
the Listed mares bumper at Sandown last month. Despite hanging across the track and ending up on the
stands rail, she still prevailed by half a length from Colins Sister. Effective on any ground, she is a very
good mare who looks sure to be thereabouts.
Stuart Kittows mare TOBOUGGALOO won her first two races last season at Exeter and Cheltenham
(Good ground) before running below par on her reappearance in November. Beaten fifteen lengths by
Copper Kay in a Listed event, she only finished eighth and needs to improve markedly. However, better
ground will be in her favour and she has been given a long break since (145 days).
CONCLUSION: I feel THEATRE TERRITORY will run a big race but my two against the field are LA
BAGUE AU ROI and SHATTERED LOVE. If either dont line up, I advise having a saver on Nicky
Hendersons former Irish pointer who ought to appreciate the better ground.
Day 2 - FRIDAY 8th APRIL
1.40 ALDER HEY CHILDRENS CHARITY

HANDICAP HURDLE (Grade 3)
4yo + 2m 4f
Leading Contenders
GWAFA was rated 92 on the Flat when trained by Marco Botti. He won a fast ground maiden (1m 4f) at
Newmarket in 2014 before finishing a very creditable second behind Battersea in a valuable handicap at
Ascot during the same season. Absent from September 2014 until December last year, the half-brother to
Australia Day was switched to Paul Webber with a view to going jumping. Well held behind Altior at
Kempton on Boxing Day, he won his next two starts at Fakenham and Huntingdon by an aggregate of 21
lengths. A speedy type, he is suited by flat tracks and it would be dangerous to underestimate him.
TIGER ROLL won the Triumph Hurdle in 2014 and Gordon Elliotts gelding also won at Cheltenham in
October during the same year. However, he hasnt won since (7 races) and has slipped to a lenient
looking rating of 145. This will be the Authorized geldings first run in a handicap and he ought to
appreciate two and a half miles on a decent surface. Off the track from May until last month, the six year
old ran well in a two miles maiden on the Flat at Dundalk. That run ought to have put him spot on for this.
Gigginstown House and Gordon Elliott have also entered TYCOON PRINCE, who looks potentially very
well handicapped off 139. A three times bumper winner, he has only won one of his three races over
hurdles but this represents a significant drop in class. An easy winner at Punchestown on his hurdles bow
at Punchestown in October, he was only third next time in a Grade 3 at Navan. He then finished a dozen
lengths second behind Bellshill in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at the same track. His trainer expressed his
disappointment afterwards and intended giving the Trans Island gelding a full MOT afterwards. He has
undergone a wind operation since and arrives a fresh horse (117 days off). The stable won this in 2011
with Russian War and he looks a major contender off his rating on his handicap bow.
The ex-French trained VIRGILIO has won three of his four races since joining Dan Skelton, two of which
have been over this course and distance. The seven year old has won handicaps off mark of 125 and 138
at Aintree and was particularly impressive in December when beating Un Ace by eight lengths. Pulled up
in the Grade 2 Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Years Day, the stable werent firing at the time and
the run is best forgotten. Absence since (98 days) and undergone a wind operation, he goes well fresh
and it would be no surprise to see him defy a ten pounds rise for his latest win.
WAIT FOR ME jumped much better on quicker ground in the County Hurdle when finishing a creditable
fourth behind Superb Story. The handicapper has left his mark alone and I feel he will relish the step up to
two and a half miles for the first time. A dual winner over hurdles at Newbury and Kempton, Philip Hobbs
holds him in the highest regard and I think this longer distance will be the making of him. With only four
hurdle runs against his name, the six year old should have plenty more to offer.
CONCLUSION: All five horses discussed have other entries during the course of the meeting. However,
the three to concentrate on are TYCOON PRINCE, VIRGILIO (breathing operation since his last run) and
WAIT FOR ME.
2.15 TOP NOVICES HURDLE (Grade 2)

4yo + 2 miles 110 yards
TRENDS:
Only 9 of the last 24 winners ran at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (8 in the Supreme NH & 1
in the Triumph Hurdle).
11 of the last 24 winners had won on their LATEST START.
19 of the last 21 winners were AGED 4 6.

9 of the last 11 winners had run between 2 & 3 times over hurdles.
NICKY HENDERSON has won 4 of the last 6 renewals.
Only 5 FAVOURITES have won in the last 17 years (but they have won 3 of the last 4
renewals).
Leading Contenders:
* BALL DARC has been plying his trade over hurdles in Ireland during the winter on bad ground but his
connections believe the five year old may improve for a sounder surface. Rated 143, he has won half of
his six races over hurdles, including Listed and Grade 2 events at Punchestown and Naas. Third behind
Min at the former venue earlier in the campaign, Gordon Elliotts charge is improving all the time and he
won a point on good to yielding for Pat Doyle and a bumper at Thurles on yielding. All six of his hurdle
runs have been on heavy ground.
* BUVEUR DAIR finished fourth in the Grade 2 bumper at this meeting last year and is a half-brother to
former stablemate and Grade 1 winning hurdler Punchestowns. Rated 152 over hurdles, he won at
Newbury (beat Wait For Me by eleven lengths) and Huntingdon before finishing third in the Supreme NH
behind stablemate Altior last time. Nicky Henderson has won this four times with General Miller (2010),
Darlan (2012), My Tent Or Yours (2013) and Josses Hill (2014). A strong traveller, I think he will be suited
by the flat track, compared to Cheltenham last time, but it is a case of whether he is quick enough over the
minimum trip.
* GWAFA holds an entry in the opening handicap hurdle (rated 140) and he is developing into a good
novice. Rated 92 on the Flat when trained by Marco Botti, he won a fast ground maiden at Newmarket in
2014 before finishing a very creditable second behind Battersea in a valuable handicap at Ascot during the
same season. Absent from September 2014 until December last year, the half-brother to Australia Day
was switched to Paul Webber with a view to going jumping. Well held behind Altior at Kempton on Boxing
Day, he won his next two starts at Fakenham and Huntingdon by an aggregate of 21 lengths. A speedy
type, he is suited by flat tracks and it would be dangerous to underestimate him.
* LIMINI would be an intriguing runner having won all three of her starts over hurdles. A three times winner
on the Flat in France, she won at Punchestown and Fairyhouse (Grade 3) before producing a terrific
performance in the inaugural running of the Dawn Run Mares Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
A four and a half lengths winner, the Peintre Celebre mare barely came off the bridle and looked a class
act. Effective on any ground, there hasnt been an Irish trained winner of this since 1999 (Joe Mac) but
she receives seven pounds from the majority of the field.
* NORTH HILL HARVEY was bought for 100,000 in April last year having won an English point-to-point
for Tom Lacey. A four and a half lengths winner over hurdles at Cheltenham in December, Dan Skeltons
gelding appeared to be outstayed by Ma Du Fou in the Sidney Banks Memorial NH at Huntingdon in
February. Beaten a length and a quarter, the Kayf Tara gelding was then dropped back to the minimum trip
in the Supreme NH. Ultimately well held, his rider Harry Skelton reportedly felt he would have been placed
had his mount not blundered badly at the penultimate flight. His connections feel he will be better suited by
a level track and a bold showing is anticipated.
* SLOW MOTION failed to win any of her three races on the Flat in France but she has already scored
twice over timber. A winner at Auteuil in October (2m 2f), she was beaten half a length at Limerick on her
first run for Aidan OBrien in March. However, the daughter of Soldier of Fortune looked a different
proposition at Fairyhouses Easter Festival fifteen days later. A ready seven lengths winner of a Grade 2
contest, she toyed with the 133 rated Rashaan in receipt of ten pounds. It is a case of whether this race
comes too soon (third race in 26 days) but she will be receiving thirteen pounds from the geldings and is
clearly a very good filly.
* TYCOON PRINCE has this as alternative option to the opening handicap hurdle on the card. As
discussed, Gordon Elliotts gelding has undergone a wind operation since his last run and his trainer feels
he is much better than he has shown so far over hurdles. A three times bumper winner, it is hoped he goes
down the handicap route.
* YORKHILL is already a dual Grade 1 winner over hurdles this season having collected the Tolworth
Hurdle (heavy ground) at Sandown and the Neptune NH at the Festival. Hugely impressive in the latter
event, he beat Yanworth by two and a quarter lengths. Rated 156, the drop back to the minimum distance
shouldnt be an issue, even on better ground. He appears more likely to run in the 2m 4f novice on
Saturday though.
CONCLUSION: On the assumption Yorkhill runs in the two and a half miles novice on Saturday, his
stablemate LIMINI (6/4 generally) looks the one they all have to beat in receipt of seven pounds from the
geldings. I feel the track will suit Buveur DAir more so than Cheltenham last time, although he left the
10
impression in the Supreme NH that he may want further in time. NORTH HILL HARVEY (16/1) can go well
and is worth a small each-way saver.
2.50 BETRED MILDMAY NOVICES CHASE (Grade 1)

3 miles 1 furlong
TRENDS:
12 of the last 14 winners had between 4 and 6 runs over fences.

11 of the last 14 winners had won at least two chases beforehand.
11 of the last 14 winners ran at the Cheltenham Festival, 5 of which were in the RSA Chase.
11 of the last 14 winners had won over 2m 7f to 3m 1f.
8 of the last 14 winners had won a Graded chase beforehand.
PAUL NICHOLLS has won 4 of the last 10 renewals.
5 FAVOURITES have won in the last 14 years (plus 1 JOINT-FAVOURITE).
NO WINNER in the last 14 years has been bigger than 7/1.
The Grade 2 contest has a rich history with a roll of honour which features Bregawn (1981), Burrough Hill
Lad (1982), Rhyme NReason (1985), Royal Athlete (1990) and Big Bucks (2008).
Leading Contenders:
* BLAKLION has won 3 of his 6 races over fences and is rated 154. An eight lengths winner of the Grade
2 Towton NC at Wetherby in February, he then beat Shaneshill by half a length in the RSA Chase at
Cheltenham last month. Fourth over C&D in the Grade 1 Sefton NH last year, he handles any ground and
should run his race again. There is an argument for saying it wasnt the strongest renewal of the RSA
Chase with market principals No More Heroes incurring a fatal injury and More of That bled. However, he
is a smart novice and conditions ought to suit.
* HENRYVILLE was fourth in the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham last season off a mark of 152 before
finishing fifth in the Liverpool Hurdle over C&D (planted himself at the start and lost ground). Switched to
fences, Harry Frys former pointer won at Fontwell in October before chasing home Irish Cavalier in an
intermediate chase at Newton Abbot during the same month (2m 5f). Beaten half a length, he was staying
on strongly at the death. Absent during the winter, he was an easy three lengths winner at Exeter (2m 3f)
on his return to action last month (the third Thomas Crapper has won since). The eight year old wants
decent ground and, while he has yet to win over three miles, he stays well and has been second at the
track in the past. Rated 150, he doesnt need to improve too much to go close and the fact he is fresh is a
positive to his chance.
* MEASUREOFMYDREAMS won a point-to-point for Pat Doyle before joining Willie Mullins. A dual winner
over fences at Punchestown (2m 4f) and Navan (3m), he was fortunate on the latter occasion when left
clear by the fall of stablemate Black Hercules. However, he still won the Grade 2 contest by a handful of
lengths from Noble Endeavor. Seven and a quarter lengths third in the National Hunt Chase over four
miles at Cheltenham last time, the trip appeared to stretch his stamina. The eight year old handles most
types of ground and has definite each-way claims.
* SHANESHILL, as discussed, has won two of his four races over fences and was only denied by half a
length in the RSA Chase at the Festival last time. Tackling three miles for only the second time (32), his
record in Grade 1 company is 21232. A half-brother to Northumberland Plate and Doncaster Cup winner
Far Cry, he is at his best on a sound surface and, while his jumping is a worry, he could provide Ireland
with their third win in the race this century (2005 Like-A-Butterfly & 2011 Quito De La Roque).
* UN TEMPS POUR TOUT won the French Champion Hurdle during the summer before going chasing
this winter. Runner-up at Cheltenham and Newbury, he was only fourth next time in a novices handicap
chase at the former tracks Trials meeting in January. However, David Pipes ex-French gelding was back
to form at the Festival when beating Holywell in the Ultima Business Handicap Chase by seven lengths off
a mark of 148. Ironically, the Jonjo ONeill trained runner-up won the same handicap before capturing this
Grade 1 event in 2014. The seven year old has course form having finished third in the Liverpool Hurdle
last season and he is a proven Grade 1 performer. Having only had two races since the backend of
November, he is relatively fresh and enters calculations. David Pipe won this with Dynaste in 2013.
CONCLUSION: Willie Mullins has entered six but it is unknown which horses he will choose to run.
Therefore I like HENRYVILLE (14/1 Bet365, BetVictor & Skybet (doesnt want it too soft)) and UN
TEMPS POUR TOUT (100/30 Skybet).
11
3.25 JLT MELLING CHASE (Grade 1)

TRENDS:
18 of the last 26 winners already had winning form over 2m 4f.

13 of the last 14 winners had run at least 8 times over fences (BOSTON BOB the exception
last year with only 5 runs).
19 of the last 23 winners had been AGED between 8 & 10.
22 of the last 25 winners had WON a GRADE 1 chase during their career.
ALL of the last 12 winners ran at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL on their previous start.
6 of the last 11 winners ran in the RYANAIR CHASE at Cheltenham.
16 of the last 24 winners had run in the QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE.
FAVOURITES have won the race 7 times in the last 13 years (including DON COSSACK
joint-favourite last year).
11 of the last 16 winners started FIRST OR SECOND FAVOURITE.
IRISH TRAINED RUNNERS have won 7 of the last 14 renewals.
Leading Contenders:
* UN DE SCEAUX is a four times Grade 1 winner over fences and, having fallen on his reappearance at
Leopardstown over Christmas, Willie Mullins gelding produced a fine performance to win the Clarence
House Chase at Ascot in January. Sent off a warm favourite for the Champion Chase at Cheltenham,
Special Tiara compromised his chance by taking him on from the outset and Sprinter Sacre picked up the
pieces. The eight year old will therefore be stepping up in distance but he is already a dual winner over 2m
3f at Auteuil in Graded company, albeit over hurdles. I dont envisage the trip being a problem but drying
ground isnt ideal.
* VAUTOUR won at the Cheltenham Festival for the third successive year with another vintage display. A
six lengths winner from stablemate Valseur Lido in the Ryanair Chase, his record over the trip is 11111 and
he is already a five times Grade 1 winner. Rated 176, he will be mighty hard to beat and is expected to
provide his trainer with his second win in the race following the success of Boston Bob a couple of years
ago.
CONCLUSION: I am hoping Willie Mullins decides to run VAUTOUR and we are treated to another
spectacular performance.
4.05 CRABBIES TOPHAM CHASE (Handicap)

5yo + 2 miles 5f 110 yards
TRENDS:
10 of the last 18 winners were OFFICIALLY RATED NO MORE than 132 (ALWAYS WAINING
rated 133 in 2014).
11 of the last 21 winners carried at least 10st 7lb.
3 of the last 12 winners have raced from OUT OF THE HANDICAP.
14 of the last 22 winners had won EARLIER IN THE SEASON.
11 of the last 18 winners finished in the FIRST FOUR LAST TIME OUT.
6 of the last 12 winners had already won or been placed in a race over the National fences.
NO OUTRIGHT FAVOURITE has won since 1998 (GWANAKO Joint Favourite in 2008).
The last 13 winners STARTING PRICES have been: 10/1, 9/1, 14/1, 11/1, 14/1, 22/1, 8/1, 7/1,
25/1, 16/1, 50/1, 33/1, 12/1, 10/1, 14/1.
19 of the last 23 winners had run AT LEAST 10 times over fences.
9 of the last 20 winners had run between 10 & 21 times over fences.
18 of the last 19 winners were AGED NO OLDER than 10 (ALWAYS WAINING (11yo) the
exception in 2014).
16 of the last 23 winners were AGED between 8 & 10.
9 of the last 24 winners had won over 2m 4f previously that season.
12
11 of the last 21 winners had won ONE of their previous 3 starts.

12 of the last 23 winners had run at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (7 of them in the Byrne
Group Plate).
5 of the last 11 had run at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL.
12 of the last 16 winners were either FRONT RUNNERS or PROMINENT racers.
PETER BOWEN has won the race 4 times in the last 9 years (Priced at 25/1, 22/1, 14/1 &
11/1).
NICKY HENDERSON has won 4 of the last 10 renewals, including the last 3.
There has been NO IRISH TRAINED WINNER since 2005.
Leading Contenders:
* AS DE MEE bids to follow in the hoofprints of Triolo DAlene (2013) and Ma Filleule (2014) by winning
the race as a six year old. Successful in the EBF Final at Sandown last spring, Paul Nicholls gelding has
yet to win over fences in six starts but has run plenty of good races in defeat. Runner-up behind More of
That at Cheltenham in November, he then fell three out in the Grade 1 Kauto Star NC at Kempton on
Boxing Day. Having travelled well, his stamina appeared to have given way when he hit the deck. Six
lengths second in the Scilly Isles NC at Sandown, he then finished fifth in the JLT NC at Cheltenham last
time. I would be prepared to mark up his performance at the Festival because speaking to Paul Nicholls a
couple of weeks beforehand, he felt the gelding would be hard pressed to make the meeting. Therefore he
almost certainly needed the run and will be much straighter here. The fact he hasnt won over fences is
hardly ideal but he is a smart horse on his day and a mark of 145 looks fair. Best Price: 16/1 (generally)
* BOUVREUIL is only a five year old but Paul Nicholls won the race in 2008 with Gwanako, who was from
the same age group (Cyfor Malta also won it as a 5yo in 1998). Runner-up in the Fred Winter HH at last
years Cheltenham Festival, he finished second at this years Festival, too, when chasing home Ballyalton
in the novices handicap chase on the opening day. Unfortunately, he has been raised eight pounds as a
result to a mark of 147. Earlier in the season, he beat Vyta Du Roc by a length and a half at Doncaster
(2m 3f) in January. While he lacks experience over fences, the ex-French gelding seems to be an assured
jumper and I wouldnt be in a rush to discount him, despite that hefty hike in the weights. Best Price: 16/1
(generally)
* COCKTAILS AT DAWN had jumping issues during the early part of his chasing career but appears more
assured now. A twenty six lengths winner at Sandown on the final day of last season last spring, he then
beat the likes of As De Mee and Native River at Chepstow in a novices chase on his reappearance in
October. Only fourteenth in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham in November, Nicky Hendersons
gelding may not have appreciated the easy ground. Absent since (146 days), the eight year old goes well
fresh and is at his best on a sound surface. Clearly a useful horse on his day, plus his trainers outstanding
recent record in the race (won the last 3 renewals), he remains unexposed (only 7 races over fences) and
has definite claims. However, his record in field sizes of 12 runners or more is F,4,11,9,14. Best Price:
20/1 (Bet365, Betfred, Ladbrokes, Stan James, William Hill)
* EMPIRE OF DIRT bids to become the first Irish trained winner since 2005 but he arrives at the top of his
game. Since pulling up in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown, Colm Murphys nine year old hasnt
looked back winning a competitive handicap at the same track (2m 5f) in January by two and a quarter
lengths from Killer Crow off 133 and then following up at the Cheltenham Festival. A four lengths scorer
from Tango De Juilley off 142 in the 2m 5f handicap chase on the third day, he has been raised a further
nine pounds. A sound jumper and effective on most types of ground, he requires a career best effort but
couldnt be in better form. Best Price: 14/1 (Bet365, Coral, William Hill)
* PASS THE HAT is a Grade B and C handicap chase winner in Ireland but Arthur Moores gelding hasnt
got his head in front since August 2014 (12 defeats since). However, he has run two good races on both
his visits to the UK. Fourth in the United House Gold Cup at Ascot in November 2014 off 143, he filled the
same position in the Skybet Chase at Doncaster in January last time. Beaten around ten lengths by Ziga
Boy, on both occasions he left the impression three miles stretched his stamina. This trip on decent
ground looks ideal and the nine year old looks favourably treated off 135. Arthur Moore, who sent out
Dandridge to finish second in the Grand Annual Chase at Cheltenham last month, has enjoyed plenty of
success at this meeting, most notably with Native Upmanship (dual winner of the Melling Chase) and I
would suggest he has had this race in mind for his charge for a while. It is hoped either Davy Russell or
the promising Donagh Meyler (2 nd & 4th) takes the ride. I think he has a cracking each-way chance. Best
Price: 25/1 (Bet365, Stan James)
* TURBAN was still going well when falling three out in the race last year off a mark of 151 (now rated
150) and appears to have been laid out for it once again ever since. Reappearing at Fairyhouse in
February, the nine year old ran well to finish third behind stablemates Boston Bob and On His Own in the
13
Bobbyjo Chase and has been given a break of 48 days since. A gelding by Dom Alco, he will be ridden by
Ruby Walsh (4 from 14) and Willie Mullins won this with Its Time For A Win in 2002. Granted luck, he must
go close. Best Price: 20/1 (Boylesports, Stan James)
* VILLAGE VIC is trained by Philip Hobbs, who has won this with Bells Life (1997) and Gower Slave
(2001). Set to carry 11st 11lb, it will be a tough task off a rating of 156 (Villierstown carried 11st 10lb in
1989 & Dublin Flyer shouldered 12st in 1995), although the gelding has enjoyed an excellent season
winning four of his five races. Rated 125 when winning the Bobby Renton Memorial Chase at Wetherby in
October, he has also won at Musselburgh and Cheltenham twice and is twelve pounds higher than his last
win in January. Ninth in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham last time, he handles any ground and
is a fine jumper. Best Price: 10/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power)
* VOIX DEAU was trained in France by Emmanuel Clayeux and the six year old has won two of his six
races over fences for Harry Fry. A thirteen lengths winner at Ffos Las in a novices handicap chase off 122,
he then scored off 138 at Doncaster (both over 2m 3f). Third behind Royal Regatta and Mala Beach at
Ascot in December, he likes good ground and arrives on the back of 111 days break. Unexposed, he is
rated 144 and is an excellent jumper. Best Price: 20/1 (Bet365, BetVictor, Paddy Power, William Hill)
* WITNESS IN COURT is only a couple of pounds higher than when winning at Perth last spring. Donald
McCains gelding has failed to complete in two of his three races over the National fences but he was still
going well when unseating his rider at the thirteenth (Valentines) in this race last year. Another who wants
decent ground, he is twice a winner in April suggesting this is his time of year and Wayne Hutchinson
(15325) may take the ride. He could go well at a big price because this has been his target all season,
according to his trainer. Best Price: 40/1 (Coral)
CONCLUSION: My three against the field (ALL EACH-WAY) are PASS THE HAT (25/1), TURBAN (20/1)
and VOIX DEAU (20/1). If any of the trio are absent, I suggest replacing with AS DE MEE (16/1).
4.40 DOOM BAR SEFTON NOVICES HURDLE (Grade 1)

4yo + 3 miles 110 yards
TRENDS:
22 of the last 26 winners have been AGED 6 or OLDER.

10 of the last 22 winners have been AGED 7 or OLDER.
11 of the last 22 winners had winning form over 3 MILES.
19 of the last 23 winners had WON over at least 2m 5f (OGEE (2009), SAINT ARE (2011),
BEAT THAT (2014) & THISTLECRACK (2015) the exceptions).
4 of the last 11 winners had run at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL (All in the ALBERT
BARTLETT NH).
21 of the last 24 winners had run at least 4 times over hurdles (PETTIFOUR the exception in
2008).
17 of the last 22 winners had contested a GRADED HURDLE.
17 of the last 20 winners had finished in the first FOUR LAST TIME OUT.
JONJO ONEILL has won the race TWICE in the last 13 years.
ALAN KING has won the race TWICE in the last 14 years.
NIGEL TWISTON-DAVIES has won the race TWICE in the last 17 years.
3 FAVOURITES have won in the last 13 years.
The STARTING PRICES of the last 9 winners have been 25/1, 6/1, 11/8, 8/1, 33/1, 9/1, 25/1,
16/1 & 20/1.
Leading Contenders:
* ARKWRISHT is one of eight Willie Mullins trained entries and he looks likely to improve for the step up
to three miles for the first time (his half-brother won over 2m 7f in France). The six year old failed to win in
three runs in bumpers, but has improved since sent jumping. Rated 138, he won easily at Tramore in
December and was a two and a half lengths victor in Grade 3 company at Clonmel last time. While his
jumping left something to be desired on that occasion, it is hoped it will improve on a sounder surface.
Given a break of 64 days, the Lavirco gelding is fresh and looks a thorough stayer. Ireland havent won the
race since Asian Mazes success in 2005 but they hold a strong hand this time.
14
* BALLYDINE is owned by Alan Halsall, who is a director at Aintree, suggesting this race will have been
on the six year olds agenda for sometime. A full-brother to stablemate Kilcooley, the Stowaway gelding
has won twice over hurdles registering successes at Stratford and Newcastle (beat subsequent Grade 2
winner Jonniesofa). However, he produced a career best in defeat when only denied by three parts of a
length by Barters Hill in the Grade 2 River Don NH at Doncaster in January. Absent since (69 days), he
handles any ground and, with an official rating of 145, Charlie Longsdons promising youngster is entitled
to go well. Richard Johnson (1 from 2) may partner him for the first time since October.
* BALLYOPTIC won one of his five Irish points for Ian Ferguson in Northern Ireland before finishing fifth in
a bumper at Down Royal. Transferred to Nigel Twiston-Davies, he has won both his races over hurdles in
testing ground at Ffos Las and Uttoxeter (both 2m 4f). A ten lengths scorer at the latter venue, he was
runner-up in a point on decent ground. The step up to three miles threatens to bring about further
improvement. It is a case of whether the Old Vic gelding is good enough but the stable have won this with
Kings Road (1999) and Pettifour (2008).
* BELLO CONTI finished second at Fontainebleau (2m 2f) when trained by Guillaume Macaire. Now
under the guidance of Willie Mullins, he won by seven and a half lengths on his Irish debut at Clonmel in
December over two miles. The Coastal Path gelding then stepped up in distance and class and ran a
cracker, considering his lack of experience, in the Neptune NH at Cheltenham. Fourth behind Yorkhill, he
is rated 140 and could improve further over this longer distance. He comes from the family of proven
stayers Tour Des Champs, Oedipe and Montreal. He remains unexposed, especially over this trip.
* BELLSHILL disappointed at the Cheltenham Festival for the second consecutive year when only
finishing thirteenth in the Supreme NH. However, the six year old did the same last season before finishing
second in the Grade 2 bumper at this meeting behind Barters Hill. Runner-up in an Irish point for Colin
McKeever, I think this trip will suit him and it wouldnt be a surprise to see him bounce back. Rated 146
over hurdles, he is already a Grade 1 and 2 winner having captured valuable prizes at Navan and Naas
earlier in the season. Decent ground is a plus, too.
* BLEU ET ROUGE is another ex-French gelding handled by Mullins. The former Laurent Viel trained
gelding is rated 149 having won at Cork in November and the Grade 1 Deloitte NH at Leopardstown (2m
2f) in February. A three lengths scorer from Tombstone, he was then stepped up to three miles in the
Albert Bartlett NH at the Festival. Unfortunately, the Charming Groom gelding fell at the eighth and we are
none the wiser regarding his stamina. However, he is clearly a high-class novice and, if he stays, he will
have more speed than most of his rivals.
* DUKE DES CHAMPS is trained by Philip Hobbs who won the race in 1996 courtesy of Pleasure Shared.
Twice a winner over hurdles, he scored at Market Rasen and Ascot (by 14 lengths) before finishing third in
a Grade 2 novice at Haydock (2m 7f). While the Robin Des Champs gelding didnt appear to stay the trip
weakening from the second last, the ground was bottomless and I would be inclined to forgive him. On
pedigree, three miles shouldnt be a problem because he comes from the family of Harbour Pilot and
Montys Pass. Off for 48 days since, he has had plenty of time to get over the run and could surprise at
decent odds.
* FAGAN won three of his six points for Ian Ferguson before joining Gordon Elliott. A dual bumper winner,
the Fair Mix gelding has won one of his three races over hurdles and is officially rated 147. Successful at
Musselburgh in December, he then finished a close second at the same track behind O O Seven.
However, the six year old improved markedly on those efforts when a running on second in the Albert
Bartlett NH at the Cheltenham Festival. Only beaten a length and a quarter by Unowhatimeanharry, he
appreciates nice ground and clearly stays well.
* MYSTICAL KNIGHT won two of his four points for Colin Bowe before being bought by Rebecca Curtis
for 40,000gns in March last year. A twenty one lengths winner of a bumper at Warwick in December, the
trainers other half Gearoid Costelloe said afterwards: Mystical Knight is very good hes the best
bumper horse weve had. To watch him jump a hurdle is electric. Hes a horse for the future and
will hopefully be a top-class staying hurdler. Interestingly, he was bought soon afterwards by
J.P.McManus and Mark Walsh came over for one ride at Warwick in February when the seven year old
made his hurdles debut. There was no disgrace in finishing second behind the more experienced Open
Eagle (rated 140) and he confirmed the promise by winning next time at Navan (2m 7f). The race
developed into something of a sprint, which wouldnt have suited the Kayf Tara gelding, but he still
prevailed by half a length from General Principle (6 th since). He handles any ground and the stable won
this in 2013 with At Fishers Cross. More importantly, following a lean winter (only three winners in January
and February combined), Rebecca Curtis string are in much better form now with 5 winners since the 31 st
March. He is a very interesting contender.
* STONE HARD is something of a forgotten horse having disappointed on his latest two starts. A winning
pointer for Gordon Elliott and a dual bumper scorer for Willie Mullins, the Robin Des Champs gelding won
on his hurdles debut at Gowran in November. Following his two lengths defeat of Dont Touch It (rated
15
139) and Supasundae (rated 144) over two miles, his trainer said: Hes one for the staying division.
Hes a beautiful horse. He then unseated his rider and pulled up in Grade 2 and 1 company on his next
two outings before finishing a well held fourth at Clonmel last time. Held in high regard, he has been off for
64 days and the step up to three miles ought to be to his liking (won a point over the trip on decent
ground). The six year old is much better than he has shown in his last few starts.
* YANWORTH was a high-class bumper horse last season and the six year old has won four of his five
races over hurdles earning an official mark of 156. An impressive winner in Grade 2 company at
Cheltenhams Trials meeting in January, he was sent off favourite for the Neptune NH at the Festival.
Taken wide and off the bridle at the top of the hill, Alan Kings gelding couldnt match Yorkhill for speed and
was beaten nearly two lengths. His stable endured a wretched month in March (2 from 49) and they are
already 0 from 14 in April. This will be the first time he has tackled three miles but he finished well at
Cheltenham last time.
CONCLUSION: With Willie Mullins training eight of the 27 entries, it is impossible to predict the final field.
However, my shortlist comprises of three live outsiders ARKWRISHT (50/1 Bet365, Betfred, Paddy
Power, Skybet, Stan James), BELLSHILL (33/1 Bet365, Betfred, Skybet, Stan James) and MYSTICAL
KNIGHT 33/1 (Bet365, Betfred, Paddy Power). Hopefully they will reward each-way support.
5.15 WEATHERBYS PRIVATE BANK CHAMPION STANDARD

OPEN NATIONAL HUNT FLAT RACE (Grade 2)
4 6yo 2m 209 yards
Willie Mullins is responsible for 8 of the 29 entries at the five day stage and, while the Grade 1 bumper at
the Punchestown Festival is believed to be his most likely next port of call, I am hoping INVITATION ONLY
gets the go ahead to run here instead. Featured in the Top 40 Prospects of One Jump Ahead having won
his only point-to-point for Sean Doyle, he made his belated Rules debut at Navan last month. The
Flemensfirth gelding didnt disappoint either with a powerful display. The five year old beat subsequent
winner Thirsty Work by seven lengths and looked a high-class horse in the making. Irelands champion
trainer sent out another ex-pointer Bellshill to finish second in this last year and it would be no surprise to
see his unbeaten stablemate going one better.
Day 3 SATURDAY 9th APRIL
1.45 GASKELLS HANDICAP HURDLE (Grade 3)

4yo + 3m 149 yards
LONG HOUSE HALL ran an excellent race in the Coral Cup at last months Cheltenham Festival when
finishing a length and a quarter second behind Diamond King. Only raised three pounds, he remains fairly
treated, especially now he tackles three miles for the first time under Rules (won an Irish point over the trip
when trained by Paul Duggan). The eight year old has won 3 of his 5 races since joining Dan Skelton with
his hurdles rating rising twenty four pounds in the meantime. Good ground is ideal (he definitely doesnt
want too much rain) and the fact he has effectively only had one race since May last year (unseated his
rider early on in a novice chase in October) means he will arrive fresh. He reportedly worked very well on
Saturday morning with the speedy pair ChTibello and Mister Miyagi and couldnt be in better condition.
Interestingly, the Saddlers Hall gelding has a very similar profile to last years winner Taglietelle he
finished fourth in the Coral Cup off the same mark of 140 and was running over three miles for the first
time (the 2014 winner Doctor Harper was also having his first run over the distance).
2.25 EZ TRADER MERSEY NOVICES HURDLE (Grade 1)

4yo + 2m 4f
TRENDS:
16 of the last 17 winners were AGED 5 7 (BOUGGLER being the exception in 2009)
15 of the last 17 winners finished in the FIRST FOUR LAST TIME OUT.
13 of the last 17 winners were from the FIRST TWO IN THE BETTING.
13 of the last 17 winners had at least FOUR RUNS OVER HURDLES BEFOREHAND.
Only 5 OUTRIGHT FAVOURITES have won since 2000 (NATAL Joint Favourite in 2006).
16
PAUL NICHOLLS has won the race 4 TIMES in the last 12 years.
The last 3 Neptune Investments NH winners to go to post BARTON (1999), PEDDLERS
CROSS (2011) & SIMONSIG (2012) - all completed the double.
Leading Contenders:
* BLEU ET ROUGE has other options at the meeting but he is already a Grade 1 winner this season
having taken the Deloitte Hurdle at Leopardstown (2m 2f) in February. A three lengths winner from
Tombstone, he was stepped up to three miles next time but fell at the eighth in the Albert Bartlett NH at
Cheltenham. This will be his first run over two and a half miles but it shouldnt be an issue having shown
sufficient pace to win over shorter at the highest level. The five year old is one of eight entries from the
Willie Mullins yard.
* YANWORTH was a high-class bumper horse last season and the six year old has won four of his five
races over hurdles earning an official mark of 156. An impressive winner in Grade 2 company at
Cheltenhams Trials meeting in January, he was sent off favourite for the Neptune NH at the Festival.
Taken wide and off the bridle at the top of the hill, Alan Kings gelding couldnt match Yorkhill for speed and
was beaten nearly two lengths. His stable endured a wretched month in March (2 from 49) and they are
already 0 from 14 in April I cant see an obvious reason why the Norse Dancer gelding will turn the
tables on Willie Mullins charge.
* YORKHILL is already a dual Grade 1 winner over hurdles this season having collected the Tolworth
Hurdle (heavy ground) at Sandown and the Neptune NH at the Festival. Hugely impressive in the latter
event, he beat Yanworth by two and a quarter lengths. Rated 156, he has excellent claims and will be very
hard to beat. Willie Mullins won this last year with Nichols Canyon.
CONCLUSION: YORKHILL looked a top-class novice hurdler when winning the Neptune Investments NH
at Cheltenham last time. A reproduction of that performance will make him extremely hard to beat.
3.00 DOOM BAR MAGHULL NOVICES CHASE (Grade 1)

5yo + 2 miles
TRENDS:
During the last 27 years, 23 horses who were PLACED in the ARKLE TROPHY have gone to
post, and 8 have won.
7 of the last 27 winners had NOT run at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL.
Only 2 of the last 26 winners had run MORE than 6 times that season.
24 of the last 25 winners had run at least 3 times over fences.
22 of the last 23 winners had won a NOVICE CHASE earlier in the season.
11 of the last 14 winners had finished either 1 st or 2nd in a Grade 1 chase.
14 of the last 22 winners had won a GRADED NOVICE CHASE earlier in the season.
17 of the last 21 winners had been AGED 5 7.
FAVOURITES have won 5 of the last 12 renewals.
PAUL NICHOLLS has won the race 5 times in the last 17 years.
There have only been 2 IRISH TRAINED winners since 1989 (but 2 in the last 3 years ,
namely SPECIAL TIARA (2013) & SIZING GRANITE (2015)).
The two mile event is expected to be run at a frenetic early gallop with the free going ALISIER
DIRLANDE (trainer Henry De Bromhead won the race in 2013 and 2015) and ARZAL in the line up.
However, that is likely to play into the hands of DOUVAN who is impossible to oppose. Unbeaten in four
races over fences, including the Arkle Trophy at Cheltenham last time, he handed out a seven lengths
defeat to Sizing John. Indeed, his four wins have been by aggregate of forty nine and a half lengths. It will
be a major surprise if the six year old is beaten.
3.40 LIVERPOOL STAYERS HURDLE (Grade 1)

4yo + 3m 1f
TRENDS:
17
ALL of the last 12 winners had run at least 8 times over hurdles.
11 of the last 12 winners had finished in the FIRST FOUR LAST TIME OUT (WHISPER the
exception last year).
11 of the last 12 winners had finished in the FIRST TWO at this FIXTURE in the past
(WHISPER the exception in 2014).
9 of the last 12 winners had finished in the FIRST FOUR in the WORLD HURDLE.
10 World Hurdle winners have gone to post in the last 12 years 6 have followed up.
Leading Contenders:
* ALPHA DES OBEAUX was a faller at the final flight in the Grade 1 Sefton NH at this meeting last year
when coming off second best behind Thistlecrack. An eleven lengths winner of the Galmoy Hurdle at
Gowran in January when fitted with cheekpieces for the first time, he was without the head gear in the
World Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. While he ran a terrific race to finish second, Mouse Morris gelding
was readily left behind between the final two flights by his old adversary Thistlecrack and was beaten
seven lengths. His record at Grade 1 level is F2222 and his form figures over three miles read 12F212. He
will be seeking to become the second Irish trained winner since 1978 (Solwhit won in 2013) and
presumably the cheekpieces will be back in place. However, they will need to have some effect if the six
year old is to reverse the form with Colin Tizzards champion stayer.
* DIFFERENT GRAVEY looked just that when winning on his belated reappearance and handicap debut
at Ascot in February. The High Chaparral gelding conceded twenty four pounds and gave Fingertips a
sixteen lengths beating in a 2m 3f event under 11st 12lb. Raised eleven pounds to a mark of 160, the six
year old has won 4 of his 5 races over timber having been bought for 140,000gns after winning his sole
Irish point for Michael Goff. Yet to race beyond 2m 4f under Rules, his point win was gained over three
miles and he seems to handle any ground. Nicky Henderson has won the last two renewals with Whisper
and he fields an intriguing candidate this time. A real unknown quantity, we have no idea how good he is.
* THISTLECRACK was a thirteen lengths winner of the Grade 1 Sefton NH last year and hasnt looked
back since. Unbeaten in four races this term, his official rating has risen from 150 to 174. Successful in the
Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury, the Long Walk Hurdle at Ascot and Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham, he
then won the World Hurdle with another powerful display. Colin Tizzards gelding beat the aforementioned
Alpha Des Obeaux by seven lengths and he will be mighty hard to beat, if in the same form. A three times
Grade 1 winner, his record over the trip is 121111.
* VROUM VROUM MAG has looked a top-class mare against her own sex winning all nine of her races
since joining Willie Mullins. The seven year old started this season over fences when winning a Grade 3
chase at Clonmel but was soon switched back over timber. A three and a half lengths winner over nearly
three miles in a Grade 2 mares hurdle at Ascot in January, she was a ready scorer of the David Nicholson
Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham last time. Rated 154 over hurdles, we will hopefully find out how good she is.
Marello (1998) and Maid Equal (2001) were winning mares of this.
CONCLUSION: NO SELECTION
4.20 BETFRED HANDICAP CHASE (Listed)

5yo + 3m 1f
TRENDS:
13 of the last 16 winners had run between 6 - 14 times over fences.

15 of the last 16 winners were OFFICIALLY RATED between 124 - 145.
13 of the last 16 winners were AGED 6 to 9.
9 of the last 16 winners had a TOP TWO FINISH in their last 2 starts.
The STARTING PRICES of the last 9 winners have been: 9/2, 12/1, 7/2, 11/1, 10/1, 12/1, 9/1,
20/1, 9/2, 22/1.
NONE of the last 15 winners raced from OUT OF THE HANDICAP.
CONCLUSION: NO SELECTION
5.15 CRABBIES GRAND NATIONAL (Grade 3)

18

TRENDS:
Only 10 of the last 27 winners have carried MORE than 10st 8lb (But 8 of the last 12 have).
ALL of the last 23 winners have been AGED between 8 & 12.
EVERY WINNER since 1970 (Gay Trip being the last one) had won over THREE MILES over
FENCES beforehand.
18 of the last 27 winners had won BEYOND 3m 2f.
19 of the last 20 winners have been OFFICIALLY RATED at least 136 (AURORAS ENCORE
the exception in 2013).
12 of the last 15 winners were OFFICIALLY RATED between 136 & 153 (NEPTUNE
COLLONGES (157) & AURORAS ENCORE (133) being the exceptions (2012 & 2013)).
22 of the last 25 winners had won a race over at least 3m 1f.
21 of the last 25 winners had run in the previous 35 days before the National.
19 of the last 20 winners had run in the past 49 days (NEPTUNE COLLONGES (56 days) the
exception in 2012).
11 of the last 12 winners had AT LEAST ONE TOP-THREE FINISH IN LAST THREE RUNS.
ALL of the last 18 winners had run at LEAST 10 times over fences.
17 of the last 25 winners had run at LEAST 14 times over fences (including PTPs).
Only 7 of the last 23 winners had run at the CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL beforehand.
Only 4 of the last 25 winners had FALLEN in the season of their victory
(NUMBERSIXVALVERDE was BROUGHT DOWN during his National winning season in
2008).
Only 5 of the last 25 winners had raced MORE than 6 times that season.
Only 9 of the last 25 winners started longer than 16/1.
Only 4 times has a WEIGHT in excess of 11st been carried to victory since 1983
(Hedgehunter (2005), Dont Push It (2010), Neptune Collonges (2012) & Many Clouds
(2015)).
9 of the last 13 winners were running in the race for the FIRST TIME.
17 of the last 25 winners were running over the NATIONAL FENCES for the FIRST TIME.
13 of the last 24 winners had WON or been PLACED in one of the major NATIONALS (ie.
IRISH, MIDLANDS, SCOTTISH or WELSH).
22 of the last 24 winners had won a race containing at least 14 runners.
There have only been 4 winners in the last 23 years in their first season OUTSIDE NOVICE
COMPANY.
Only 3 FAVOURITES have won in the last 23 years (COMPLY OR DIE was Joint Favourite in
2008 & DONT PUSH IT in 2010).
Only 3 of the 160 FRENCH BREDS to have run in the race during the last 21 years has won
(MON MOME (2009), NEPTUNE COLLONGES (2012) & PINEAU DE RE (2014) but 3 in the
last 7 years (plus SAINT ARE was second last year).
The 191 horses to wear HEADGEAR (ie. Blinkers, Visors, Cheekpieces, Hood) in the last 22
years have produced 2 winners and 9 places.
There were 6 IRISH TRAINED WINNERS between 1999 & 2007 but none since.
Leading Contenders:
* BALLYNAGOUR is trained by David Pipe, who won the race in 2008 with Comply Or Die. A former
winning pointer for Stuart Crawford before joining Jehan Bertran De Balanda in France, the ten year old
invariably comes good at this time of year. The gelding has won once every year with five of his victories
gained in June, April, February, March and May. In other words, he is a second half of the season horse. A
previous Cheltenham Festival winner, he was only beaten four lengths by Cue Card in the Charlie Hall
Chase at Wetherby this term when rated 163. Now rated 157, he disappointed during the winter at
Haydock, Kempton and Newbury but hinted at a return to form at the Festival last month. Seventh in the
2m 5f handicap chase, a race he won two years ago, he travelled well but lacked the pace in the latter
stages, plus he was nearly brought down twice. Undoubtedly well handicapped, his stable are in better
form and it is worth recalling his form last spring. Only beaten a head by Silviniaco Conti (6lb better off
19
now) in the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl, he had Holywell over two lengths behind him that day and he was then
still going well when falling at the fourth last in another Grade 1 at the Punchestown Festival (won by Don
Cossack). He then won a Grade 2 hurdle at Auteuil in May. In two runs on the Mildmay course at Aintree,
he has been placed in Grade 1 company on each occasion. Indeed, his overall record at the highest level
is 322F55P. Reported to have schooled over National style fences at home, he may be hitting form at the
right time and is very much a leading player. Drying ground will suit and the fact he is a strong traveller is a
major plus. I spoke to David Pipe on Friday and he said the gelding had come out of his last race well and
appears to be in good form at home. Tom Scudamore rides. Best Price: 66/1 (Bet365, BetVictor, Coral,
Ladbrokes, Stan James)
* BISHOPS ROAD was previously trained in Ireland by Henry De Bromhead (beat Heathfield at
Leopardstown in January 2015 conceding twenty pounds to Tony Martins gelding) before changing hands
for 32,000gns in September. Unbeaten in two races since joining Kerry Lee, he was a seventeen lengths
winner at Sandown (2m 4f : Heavy) in January off a mark of 130 before proving his stamina in the Grand
National Trial at Haydock (3m 4f) the following month. A nine lengths scorer from Broadway Buffalo when
rated 144, he races off the same mark here (due to run off 154 in future). A real unknown quantity, he has
looked very good in both races for his new trainer. His record over three miles plus (including point-topoints) is P1361 and Jamie Moore rides (1 from 1). Best Price: 25/1 (generally)
* BOSTON BOB is an eleven year old (his age group have won 3 of the last 4 renewals) and he won his
prep, namely the Bobbjo Chase at Fairyhouse in February by a head from stablemates On His Own and
Turban. Once rated 162, he is now 151 and is a four times Grade 1 winner. Unbeaten on the Mildmay
course at Aintree having won the Melling Chase in 2014, he has won 5 of his 16 races over fences. Pulled
up in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran in January, he gets on particularly well with Ruby Walsh
(11211613241). Well treated on his previous form, there could be even better handicapped horses in the
field. Best Price: 33/1 (Betfred)
* BUYWISE is a horse with a tremendous amount of ability but jumping problems have blighted his
chasing career thus far. A former winning pointer, Evan Williams gelding has run some very good races in
defeat this season, including when third in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree in October and a half length
second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham the following month (off 148 and now rated 151).
Stepped up to three miles at Doncaster last time, he kept on to finish third in the Skybet Chase behind
Ziga Boy. With slicker jumping, he could have very easily already won at least one big prize this season.
Drying ground suits and, while his stamina is questionable, he gives the impression he will stay. Set to
carry 10st 10lb, his chance revolves around his jumping. Paul Moloney (1151151432) has a fantastic
record on horses which have been placed in the National and he could be the man to get the best out of
the nine year old. Expect him to be ridden in the rear before creeping into contention on the final circuit.
Best Price: 50/1 (generally)
* GALLANT OSCAR, as stated in the February Update, has been my fancy for the race for a few months
now and with Tony Martin finally hitting some form (only 8 winners over jumps in Ireland between
September and February but 4 winners under both codes during the final two weeks of March) I have no
reason to change my view. A nine lengths winner at last years Punchestown Festival, the ten year old was
still going well when falling at the second last in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over the Festive
period. He also ran well last time under top weight in the Leinster National at Naas. Beaten around five
lengths under Barry Geraghty, he wasnt subjected to an aggressive ride. The fact he missed the
Cheltenham Festival suggests this has been the plan for a long time (balloted out of the race last year).
Officially rated 149, he has only had 10 races over fences and remains unexposed. Effective on most
types of ground, he is set to run off 10st 8lb and I will be disappointed if he isnt involved in the shake up.
Mark Walsh (1 from 1) is likely to ride. Best Price: 25/1 (Bet365, Coral)
* GOONYELLA is a thorough stayer having won the Midlands National last season off 136 (now rated
149). Runner-up in the Scottish version, too, he only finished ninth in the Becher Chase at Aintree in
December. Indeed, his course form figures over the National fences read UR, 9 th. Six lengths second
behind Venitien De Mai in the Leinster National at Naas last time, he was conceding twenty five pounds to
the winner. A three times winner over fences (plus three points), he ideally wants some ease in the ground
but his previous course form is a concern. Best Price: 20/1 (generally)
* HADRIANS APPROACH was third in the RSA Chase in 2013 and won the Bet365 Gold Cup at
Sandown the following year (only a pound higher now). Nicky Hendersons nine year old was then out of
action from January 2015 until February this year. However, he made an eyecatching return when seventh
in the Betbright Chase at Kempton behind Theatre Guide. At his best on good or good/soft ground, he has
only had fourteen races over fences. His jumping hasnt always been the best in the past but he is a very
capable horse when getting everything together. Best Price: 66/1 (Stan James)
* HOLYWELL seeks to give Jonjo ONeill his second win in the race (Dont Push It won in 2010). A Grade
1 winning novice chaser on the Mildmay course in 2014 (beat Don Cossack by ten lengths), he ran some
20
good races last season finishing fourth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup and third behind Silviniaco Conti in
the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl at this meeting. Without a win in four races this term, the nine year old has
plummeted to a mark of 153 (once rated 163) having finished well beaten in the Charlie Hall, Betfair and
Skybet Chases during the winter. However, he appreciated the return to better ground at the Cheltenham
Festival last month when runner-up behind Un Temps Pour Tout (had won the race two years earlier). Not
over big, he has the ability to go close and is one of the best handicapped horses in the field in fact, he
reminds me a lot of the 2012 runner-up Sunnyhillboy from the same stable. In the words of his trainer, he
will either love it or hate it, and I suspect his backers will know their fate early on. Best Price: 16/1
(Betfred)
* KRUZHLININ only finished tenth in the race in 2014 (off 143 and now rated 148) and injury ruled him out
of last years event. A five times winner over fences, he left Donald McCain in the Autumn to join Philip
Hobbs. Despite jumping to his left, he won a competitive handicap chase at Kempton in January by five
lengths from Le Reve off 138. Fifth last time at the Cheltenham Festival behind Un Temps Pour Tout and
Holywell, he made a mistake at the top of the hill when travelling strongly. He struggled to get back into the
race thereafter. Seventh in the Becher Chase in 2014, he prefers better ground and has each-way claims
on the pick of his form. However, it would be a surprise if he is quite good enough and has ground to make
up with Holywell on their meeting at Cheltenham last time. Richard Johnson (1 from 2) rides. Best Price:
25/1 (generally)
* MANY CLOUDS bids to become the first horse since Red Rum in 1974 to win successive Grand
Nationals. A length and three quarters winner from Saint Are last year off a mark of 160, Oliver Sherwoods
nine year old is only five pounds higher this time. Runner-up behind Don Poli in a Listed chase in
December, he filled the same position behind Smad Place in the Betbright Chase at Cheltenham in
January. He then looked as good as ever when beating Unioniste by ten lengths in another Listed chase at
Kelso last month (the same owners Ballabriggs finished second in the race before winning the National
five years ago). His trainer reports the gelding in fine fettle and he looks sure to run another big race,
despite top weight of 11st 10lb. Best Price: 8/1 (Bet365, Betfred, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Skybet)
* MORNING ASSEMBLY was a high-class novice chaser during the 2013/2014 campaign. Pat Fahys
gelding beat Don Cossack in a Grade 2 novice at Punchestown in November 2013 (hasnt won since)
before finishing third in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Absent from April 2014 until January
this year, the nine year old has run some good races since returning. Runner-up over an inadequate two
and a half miles at Fairyhouse and Gowran (Red Mills Chase), he then finished a creditable fourth in the
Ultima Business Handicap Chase at Cheltenham over three miles. Rated 150, he likes some ease in the
ground and is expected to be ridden by Davy Russell (213324), which is a positive to his chance. His
record on left-handed tracks is 21234 compared to 13F111322 on right handed ones. Arguably better
going the other way around, the 2014 National winner Pineau De Re hadnt won on a left-handed track
prior to his win two years ago though. Best Price: 33/1 (Bet365, Skybet)
* PENDRA has only had nine races over fences, including when winning over three miles at Ascot in
October. Charlie Longsdons eight year old beat Double Ross by three and a quarter lengths (off 140 and
now rated 146). He finished ten lengths fifth behind Wakanda over the same course and distance in
December. Trained for this ever since (off 112 days), he only finished tenth in the Irish National in 2014 but
he was still a novice at the time. The trip is a doubt but he doesnt look overburdened off his mark. Best
Price: 66/1 (generally)
* RULE THE WORLD was a smart hurdler winning five times earning an official mark of 156 (runner-up in
the 2013 Neptune NH at Cheltenham). Without a win over fences from 13 attempts, Mouse Morris gelding
was runner-up in the Irish National last year (off 141) and third in the Kerry National at Listowel this
season (off 147). Runner-up behind No More Heroes in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown in late
December, he was then fifth in the Thyestes Chase at Gowran. Fourth over a trip short of his best at Naas
last time, he looks fairly treated off 148 and decent ground would be in his favour. It would be some way to
lose your maiden tag over fences. Best Price: 50/1 (Bet365, Stan James)
* SAINT ARE will be running in the race for the third time (9 th in 2013 off 142 and 2nd last year off 143). The
former Grade 1 winning novice hurdler joined Tom George last season and he also finished third in the
Becher Chase. A three parts of a length winner at Doncaster in February (underwent a wind operation in
December), he was seventh in the Becher Chase this time and sixth in a Cross Country event at
Cheltenhams Paddy Power meeting. He is only three pounds higher than last year and is reportedly in
fine form at home. His form figures over the National fences are 9327. Best Price: 16/1 (generally)
* SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR was all the rage for the race last year (6/1) on Tony McCoys final ride in the
event. Travelling strongly jumping the third last, he looked set to justify favouritism but his stamina
appeared to give way thereafter. Beaten thirteen lengths in fifth, the race has been his target once again
ever since. A former Irish National winner, the nine year old has run twice this season finishing third in a
Pertemps qualifier at the track in November. Pulled up over fences at Newbury last month, he is ten
21
pounds higher than when winning the Irish National but a pound lower than last years National. Barry
Geraghty (113P) is expected to ride. In many ways, he could be similar to the 2005 winner Hedgehunter
he looked a non stayer when falling at the last the previous year. If he gets the trip, he will go close. Best
Price: 20/1 (generally)
* SILVINIACO CONTI has been given a real chance by Phil Smith with the seven times Grade 1 winner
set to race off a mark of only 163, which is the ten year olds lowest rating since November 2012. Yet to
race beyond 3m 2f, he is twice a winner of the Grade 1 Betfred Bowl at this meeting and his overall form
figures on the Mildmay course read 1311. Held up during the Autumn with a problem with sarcoids, he was
seven lengths runner-up in the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November off 172 (nine pounds lower now)
before pulling up in the King George at Kempton. Found to be suffering with a breathing problem, his soft
palate was cauterized soon afterwards and Paul Nicholls charge produced a terrific performance to win
the Grade 1 Ascot Chase by twenty lengths from Dynaste when wearing blinkers for the first time. The fact
he is a very good jumper and likes to race prominently are both pluses to his chance. He is the class act of
the race and the handicapper has been generous to say the least. Best Price: 12/1 (Betfred,
Boylesports, Coral)
* SIR DES CHAMPS has three Grade 1s and two Cheltenham Festival wins on his CV. Once rated 173,
he is set to line up off 154 following a lengthy spell on the sidelines (December 2013 to November 2015).
Returning to action in a Listed chase at Thurles in November, the Willie Mullins trained gelding showed the
old sparkle was still there with a comfortable victory. Well held in the Lexus Chase and Irish Hennessy
since, he has won 8 of his 15 races over fences. A classy chaser, there has to be a major question mark
over whether he can win a Grand National on the back of such an injury which kept him off the track for so
long, even though he is well handicapped on his old form. Best Price: 40/1 (generally)
* THE DRUIDS NEPHEW was still going well in front when falling at the fifth last in the 2015 Grand
National off a rating of 146. Neil Mulhollands gelding is now nine pounds higher, which will make his task
much tougher. There is also an argument for saying he doesnt arrive in the same form as twelve months
ago, although he did produce his best performance of the season last time when ten lengths second
behind The Last Samuri in the Grimthorpe Gold Cup at Doncaster. Conceding six pounds to Kim Baileys
winner, he was ridden for the first time by Denis ORegan who will be on board once again. I spoke to
Denis a few days later and he is expecting the nine year old to run a big race and feels he will improve for
the run at Town Moor. Best Price: 16/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Coral, Paddy Power)
* THE LAST SAMURI won an Irish point before being bought by Donald McCain for 70,000gns in May
2013. A three times winner over fences last season, the eight year old was transferred to Kim Bailey
during the Autumn. Third in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle, he then won off a mark of 140 at Kempton
over Christmas. The Flemensfirth gelding then followed up by ten lengths in the Grimthorpe Gold Cup at
Doncaster last month off 149. Due to race off a twelve pounds higher mark in future, he is therefore on a
good mark this weekend. His lack of experience is a minor concern but he has been trained for the race
and Kim Bailey won this in 1990 with Mr Frisk. David Bass (2 from 3) continues his association with the
gelding. Best Price: 10/1 (generally)
* UCELLO CONTI has only raced three times for Gordon Elliott (won the race with Silver Birch in 2007)
having been previously trained in France by Guy Cherel. Absent from November 2014 until December last
year, the Martaline gelding has only raced twice over three miles and acquitted himself well on each
occasion. A length and a half second behind Minella Foru in the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown
over Christmas off 137 (now rated 149), he was then taken wide throughout by Jacques Ricou in the
Thyestes Chase at Gowran Park. Beaten less than seven lengths by My Murphy, he is unexposed over
staying trips. While his best two performances in Ireland have been achieved on soft/heavy ground, he
won twice on good to firm ground in France and may improve for a sounder surface. A half-brother to
Silviniaco Conti, he has the profile of a National winner and is most definitely shortlist material. Daryl
Jacob will ride him for the first time. Best Price: 33/1 (Bet365, Boylesports, Ladbrokes, Paddy Power,
Stan James)
CONCLUSION: I selected GALLANT OSCAR (25/1) in the February Update and he remains my leading
fancy. However, I also suggest backing BALLYNAGOUR (66/1), MORNING ASSEMBLY (33/1) and
UCELLO CONTI (33/1).
6.10 PINSENT MASONS HANDICAP HURDLE

(Conditional Jockeys & Amateur Riders)
4yo + 2m 110 yards
22
Evan Williams won the race a couple of seasons ago with his former Scottish Champion Hurdle winner
Court Minstrel. The Welshman may have a leading contender this year, too, in JOHN CONSTABLE,
provided he bounces back from his below par effort in the County Hurdle. Only seventeenth behind
Superb Story, it is possible the ex-Aidan OBrien trained gelding is more suited by a level track. A dual
winner over timber at Ludlow and Huntingdon, he was a very good second behind Sternrubin (won the
Ladbroke Hurdle since) in the Gerry Feilden Hurdle at Newbury in November when conceding nine
pounds to Philip Hobbs winner and runs off the same mark here (dropped two pounds since the County
Hurdle). Beaten 24 lengths at Cheltenham last time, he is better than he showed that day and can go well
here on a more suitable track.
The other one I like is THE GAME CHANGER should Gordon Elliott elect to switch the seven year old
back over hurdles. A head second in the race last year off a two pounds lower mark (143), he has looked
an improved horse this season since sent chasing winning six times. Rated 151 over the larger obstacles,
he was a creditable fourth in the Arkle Chase at Cheltenham last time behind Douvan. Two miles on a flat
track on decent ground are his ideal conditions and he could take full advantage of a more advantageous
rating back over timber. Owned by Gigginstown House Stud, Michael OLearys operation won this in 2011
when Far Away So Close prevailed and, in doing so, provided Ireland with their only win in the race. I
suggest backing the pair. If either are absent, look out for the well handicapped IVAN GROZNY, who
finished eighth in the County Hurdle last time and is running into form at the right time. The track will suit.
The horses I am most looking forward to seeing at Aintree
Leading Bloodstock Agent
ANTHONY BROMLEY
LE PREZIEN
Saturday 9th April
2.25 Ez Trader Mersey Novices Hurdle
Dont forget to check out my Racing Diary @

www.mhpublications.co.uk
Monday 22nd February 2016
Minella Rocco finally showed what he is capable of over fences with a running on second in the
Reynoldstown Novices Chase at Ascot. Bitterly disappointing earlier in the season, he was held up by
Noel Fehily but made good late headway to finish half a length behind Vyta Du Roc. It will be interesting
to see if Jonjo ONeill considers the National Hunt Chase at the Festival over four miles. He wasnt
stopping at Ascot and gives the impression he will stay. The Jackdaws Castle team have already won the
race a handful of times. MINELLA ROCCO WON the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham @ 8/1
ANTE-POST ADVICE
Not surprisingly, Willie Mullins dominates the majority of next years Cheltenham Festival ante-post
markets with the likes of Douvan (Queen Mother Champion Chase), Faugheen (Champion Hurdle) and
Yorkhill (Arkle) amongst others already at the forefront of their respective lists. However, one Closutton
inmate who may have escaped bookmakers attentions and crept under the radar is the Top 40 Prospects
entry INVITATION ONLY.
Irish expert Declan Phelan flagged up the former winning pointer as a possible winner of this seasons
Cheltenham Festival bumper. Indeed, the Flemensfirth gelding was being aimed at the race with the
intention of giving the five year old a prep run in January, according to his owner Graham Wylie.
Unfortunately, he was forced to miss a couple of engagements (January and February), due to a minor
setback, and his connections simply ran out of time before the Festival. Ironically, Invitation Only made his
Rules debut in a bumper at Navan 48 hours before the Cheltenham Festival last month. Making virtually
all the running, he didnt disappoint with a convincing seven lengths victory over the more experienced
Thirsty Work (won at Clonmel since). I received a couple of emails from his owner the same evening.
23
Firstly, Graham said that Willie Mullins was very impressed because he had been told beforehand the
fourth (Monbeg Notorious also featured in the Top 40) was rumoured to be smart. Secondly, Patrick
Mullins reported the gelding has a huge engine. Graham also emailed me a few days later to say the plan
is for Invitation Only to contest the Grade 1 championship bumper at the Punchestown Festival
(Wednesday 27th April). However, he has also been entered in the Grade 2 bumper at Aintree on Friday.
With that in mind, a big performance in either event will see his ante-post slashed significantly. I will be
surprised if the ex-pointer lines up in the Supreme Novices Hurdle next March, which leaves the Neptune
Investments and Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdles. Mullins is sure to have plenty of contenders for both
races but Invitation Only looked a potentially top-class horse at Navan and, granted luck, will be lining up
at the 2017 Cheltenham Festival. He therefore looks overpriced at 25/1 (Bet365 & BetVictor) for the
Neptune Investments and 33/1 (Paddy Power) for the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdles. I suggest backing
him for both.
SELECTION: INVITATION ONLY @ 25/1 (Bet365 & BetVictor) 2017 Neptune Investments NH + 33/1
(Paddy Power) & 25/1 (Bet365 & Skybet) 2017 Albert Bartlett NH
NAMES TO NOTE IN THE REMAINING WEEKS

The curtain comes down on the 2015/2016 National Hunt season on Saturday 23 rd April but there are
some decent meetings at the likes of Ayr, Cheltenham, Perth and Sandown still to come, plus the
Punchestown Festival (26th 30th April) at the end of the month. Below are a few horses to note who are
likely to be in action during the final weeks of the campaign.
ANAY TURGE has been a real moneyspinner for Nigel Hawke over the years winning a dozen races and
earning over 130,000 in prize-money. The eleven year old goes particularly well at Cheltenham winning
on three occasions at Prestbury Park, including twice at their April fixture. A neck winner of the Grade 2
handicap chase over two and a half miles last spring off a mark of 132, he is now seven pounds higher but
it would be no surprise if he went close in the same event next week (Wednesday 13th April). The
Turgeon gelding also won at Market Rasen last May before having a break. Reappearing at Carlisle last
month, I was working for Racing UK and it was the first time Anay Turge had tackled three miles. Absent
for 317 days, he made good headway at halfway and held every chance at the bottom of the hill (four out).
However, a combination of the trip and the fact he hadnt raced for so long appeared to find him out and
he was allowed to come home in his own time. Beaten thirty six lengths in eighth by Firth of The Clyde, he
ran much better than that suggests the other good thing is the fact the Racing Post analysis never
mentioned him, which means he could be overpriced at Cheltenham next week. Needless to say, he isnt
going to be improving at the age of eleven but he could still run well at a big price provided the ground isnt
soft, plus his yard are in better form now (2 winners during March having not had a winner since
November).
Dan Skelton won division one of the bumper at Warwick on Monday with Aintree My Dream and then
withdrew AL SHAHIR from the second division due to the testing conditions. There is a belief within the
yard the latter is the better prospect and is one to look out for when he makes his racecourse debut. A four
year old by Robin Des Champs who cost 38,000 at the Derby Sale in Ireland last summer, he is held in
high regard and a big run was anticipated yesterday.
From the same yard, dont be surprised if CHTIBELLO runs a big race in the Scottish Champion Hurdle
on Saturday week (16th April). The ex-French trained five year old has only raced three times for the
Skelton yard and, while he has yet to win in the UK, he has run some very good races. Only a length and
a quarter behind subsequent Supreme NH winner Altior (now rated 160) at Ascot in October, the pair
pulled twenty lengths clear of the remainder. Despite finishing nine lengths third in the Gerry Feilden
Hurdle at Newbury last time, he reportedly wasnt at his best and has had a lengthy break since (142
days). Dropped two pounds since, this has been his target for a while and his connections will be
disappointed if he doesnt go close. I suggest clients start looking for an ante-post price early next week.
HEATHFIELD received a favourable mention in the Appendix in One Jump Ahead (page 164) and it was
therefore good to see Tony Martins nine year old gain a victory over hurdles at Navan (2m 6f) at the start
of the month at odds of 8/1. The Definite Article gelding had been well held in three previous starts this
term but, with his stable in much better form now, he is one to look out for at either Ayr (entered in the
Scottish National (16th April)) or, more likely, the Punchestown Festival (26 th 30th April). A four and a
24
quarter lengths winner over the 3m 6f handicap chase at the latter venue last spring, he is thirteen pounds
higher now but remains unexposed over staying trips. Taking advantage of a seventeen pounds lower
rating over timber at Navan, he won by five lengths and that should have set him up nicely for the
remainder of the campaign. Depending on the outcome of his appeal against his 30 days ban, Barry
Geraghty would be available to ride Heathfield at Ayr but is ruled out of the Punchestown Festival, as
things stand. Either way, there is another big staying prize in Tony Martins charge.
Perth stage their spring Festival (20 th 22nd April) later this month and it would be no surprise if Nicky
Richards has the meeting in mind for his novice chaser LOOKING WELL. Rated 123 over fences, there is
a 0-125 novices handicap chase over three miles on the opening day (Wednesday 20 th April) of the
fixture which looks ideal. The seven year old is unbeaten at the track having won a bumper on his
racecourse debut at the corresponding meeting two years ago and, although he handles soft ground, the
Gold Well gelding is arguably at his best on a sounder surface. A dual winner over hurdles, he has yet to
win over fences but was a good second behind Definitly Red at Catterick on New Years Day over three
miles one. Sent off favourite for his handicap debut over the same course and distance in mid February,
he fell at fourteenth and hasnt been seen since. Rated two pounds lower over fences compared to
hurdles, Looking Wells three career wins have been gained in March and April twice. It is possible he will
run in the novices handicap chase at Ayr on Scottish National day (16 th April) but the Perth option appeals
more. Nicky Richards endured a relatively quiet March with only 2 winners from 20 runners but hopefully
his string will be in better shape by then.
THREE FACES WEST is a horse who featured in the February Update and Philip Hobbs gelding duly
won a three miles handicap chase at Exeter last month, appreciating the better ground in the process. The
Dr Massini gelding was only having his third run over fences and he handed out a decisive four and a half
lengths victory to Paul Nicholls Bet365 Gold Cup winner Just A Par off a mark of 129. Receiving eighteen
pounds from the runner-up, he led at the eleventh and rarely looked in any danger from that point
onwards. Only raised six pounds, he still doesnt look harshly treated and, while the ex-Donald McCain
trained eight year old holds entries in the Scottish National (16th April) and Bet365 Gold Cup (23rd April),
he looks tailormade for the novices handicap chase at Ayr on the same day as the former event. The
three miles one race has been contested by the likes of Always Waining (2007), Auroras Encore (2009),
Ballabriggs (2008), Johns Spirit (2013), McKelvey (2006), Merigo (2008), On His Own (2011), Samstown
(2014) and Silver Birch (2004) in recent years. If his connections elect to go for the seasons finale at the
Esher track, it is worth remembering Hobbs has won the three miles five event twice in the past with
Lacdoudal (2006) and Monkerhostin (2008), plus Triggerman was fourth in 2011 and Roalco De Farges
was second behind Tidal Bay four years ago. The Minehead trainer invariably targets the race and I am
sure Three Faces West wouldnt disgrace himself if given the go ahead.
Why not visit

www.mhpublications.co.uk
for all the latest news on future publications
By the way.
ASUM, who features in the Top 40 Prospects and also received a positive mention in the Cheltenham
Festival Update, makes his eagerly anticipated racecourse debut at Ayrs Scottish National meeting on
Saturday week (16th April). Set to contest the same bumper Sprinter Sacre won in 2010, the well bred
Kayf Tara gelding was withdrawn from an engagement at Haydock on Easter Saturday last month, due to
fast ground. Heavily supported during the lead up to the race, he heads to Scotland with a lofty reputation
but it will take a good one to beat him, if his homework is anything to go by. I suspect we wont get a huge
price about him though.
Finally, one of the advantages of the system I use regarding sending out the Updates (Mailchimp), is the
fact I am able to monitor how many times a client views their Update. Unfortunately, a couple of clients
apparently referred to their Cheltenham Festival preview on 267 and 83 occasions respectively suggesting
they were forwarding them on to a second party. These clients have now been eliminated from my mailing
list and I will not hesitate to remove any others who indulge in this practice. I appreciate this only applies to
a very small percentage of clients but it still spoils it for everyone else. No wonder Asum was backed from
3/1 into 13/8 in the space of an hour the night before his intended debut at Haydock, if some clients are
passing on the information to all their mates.
25
Out at the end of the week
AHEAD ON THE FLAT

Price: 8.99 (including postage)
TOP 40 PROSPECTS LAST YEAR included
GOLDEN HORN & TWILIGHT SON
Stable Interviews:
Henry CANDY, Roger CHARLTON, Luca CUMANI,
James FANSHAWE, William HAGGAS,
Mark JOHNSTON (including 20 unraced Two Year Olds)
David OMEARA, Hugo PALMER (including 20 handpicked unraced
Two Year Olds), Roger VARIAN.
Plus: Top 40 Prospects, HANDICAP SNIPS, MAIDENS IN WAITING,
STABLE GOSSIP (all the latest news from the yards of Sir Michael STOUTE,
Karl BURKE & Richard FAHEY amongst others). TOMS TOP 8 & APPENDIX
Mark Howard Publications Ltd

69 Fairgarth Drive, Kirkby Lonsdale, Carnforth, Lancashire. LA6 2FB.
Telephone: 015242 71826
Email: mark.howard@mhpublications.co.uk
Website: www.mhpublications.co.uk
AVAILABLE TO ORDER VIA mhpublications.co.uk
Mark Howard Publications Ltd

69 Fairgarth Drive, Kirkby Lonsdale, Carnforth, Lancashire. LA6 2FB
Telephone 015242 71826 Email: mark.howard@mhpublications.co.uk
26

Aintree

Uploaded by

Document Information

Copyright

Available Formats

Share this document

Share or Embed Document

Sharing Options

Did you find this document useful?

Is this content inappropriate?

Copyright:

Available Formats

Aintree

Uploaded by

Copyright:

Available Formats

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

The AINTREE GRAND NATIONAL

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

Day 1 - THURSDAY 7th APRIL

1.40 MERSEYRAIL MANIFESTO NOVICES CHASE (Grade 1)

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

2.15 BETFRED ANNIVERSARY 4-Y-0 JUVENILE HURDLE

12 of the last 13 winners ran at least three times over hurdles.

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

2.50 BETFRED BOWL CHASE (Grade 1)

24 of the last 26 winners had winning form over 3 MILES.

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

3.25 DOOM BAR AINTREE HURDLE (Grade 1)

21 of the last 26 winners had previously won over 2m 4f.

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

4.05 CRABBIES FOX HUNTERS CHASE

12 of the last 13 winners had won over at least 2m 6f.

4.40 BETFRED RED RUM HANDICAP CHASE

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

11 of the last 18 winners were from the FIRST 5 in the BETTING.

5.15 GOFFS NICKEL COIN MARES STANDARD OPEN

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

Day 2 - FRIDAY 8th APRIL

1.40 ALDER HEY CHILDRENS CHARITY

2.15 TOP NOVICES HURDLE (Grade 2)

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

19 of the last 21 winners were AGED 4 6.

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

2.50 BETRED MILDMAY NOVICES CHASE (Grade 1)

12 of the last 14 winners had between 4 and 6 runs over fences.

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

3.25 JLT MELLING CHASE (Grade 1)

18 of the last 26 winners already had winning form over 2m 4f.

4.05 CRABBIES TOPHAM CHASE (Handicap)

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

11 of the last 21 winners had won ONE of their previous 3 starts.

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

4.40 DOOM BAR SEFTON NOVICES HURDLE (Grade 1)

22 of the last 26 winners have been AGED 6 or OLDER.

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

5.15 WEATHERBYS PRIVATE BANK CHAMPION STANDARD

Day 3 SATURDAY 9th APRIL

1.45 GASKELLS HANDICAP HURDLE (Grade 3)

2.25 EZ TRADER MERSEY NOVICES HURDLE (Grade 1)

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

3.00 DOOM BAR MAGHULL NOVICES CHASE (Grade 1)

3.40 LIVERPOOL STAYERS HURDLE (Grade 1)

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

4.20 BETFRED HANDICAP CHASE (Listed)

13 of the last 16 winners had run between 6 - 14 times over fences.

5.15 CRABBIES GRAND NATIONAL (Grade 3)

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

6yo + 4 miles 2 furlongs

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

6.10 PINSENT MASONS HANDICAP HURDLE

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016

The horses I am most looking forward to seeing at Aintree

Leading Bloodstock Agent

Dont forget to check out my Racing Diary @

One Jump Ahead Updates Aintree Grand National meeting 2016