6 views

Uploaded by api-314693711

save

You are on page 1of 4

**Preparation- Hypothesis & Setup
**

**The purpose of the experiment is to prove the law of large numbers
**

To start this project off we need to know the meaning of what the

Law of Large Numbers means: “Law of large numbers, in statistics,

the theorem that, as the number of identically distributed, randomly

generated variables increases, their sample mean (average)

approaches their theoretical mean”.

We want to know if the true probability as we play more and more will

get closer to the probability we calculated.

The experiment will be done in 10 sets for 10, 100, 1000, 10000

simulations. After that we will simulate the average of each one and

compare them. And it will be al randomized.

Experiment

**We have collect random data and work on excel with it. These are the
**

bets that we are working on.

Red and black

Even and odd

First 18 or last 18

The result of 18/38 is 0.473684211

**To perform this experiment I will follow these steps:
**

**Determine the probability of winning with an “even” bet. That is a bet
**

on the red/black, even/odd, or first 18/ last 18 sets. On each of the

above bets there is 18 ways to win, out of 38 different possibilities.

Place that probability in cell “A1”. You can calculate the probability

right in the cell by typing in cell A1 - “=18/38”

In cell “B1” type the following formula – “=Rand()”. This generates a

number that is greater than or equal to 0 and less than 1.

In cell C1 type the following formula – “= if(B1 <= $A$1,1,0)”. What

this does is if the randomly generated number in cell B1 is less than or

equal to the probability of winning then it marks the “C” column cell

with a 1, denoting a win. Other wise it places a 0 in the “C” column

denoting a loss.

Left Click the mouse on cell b1, and while holding the click down drag

your mouse over cell c1. Let the mouse click go. This should highlight

the cells B1 and C1. There should be a small box in the lower right had

corner of cell C1. Place the mouse over the box and drag the box down

to the appropriate number of cells. For example 10, 100, 1000, 10000,

respectively for each of the above experiments.

**In cell C11, C101, C1001, C10001 respectively for each of the
**

experiments, click on the “Σ” in the toolbar at the top of excel or type

the following formula. “Sum(C1:C10)”. Both of these do the exact

same thing. It will be necessary to replace the C10, with C100, C1000,

and C10000 for each of the respective simulations.

Make sure that you record the win totals for each of the simulations,

because each time you change the spreadsheet in any way it

recalculates all random numbers.

Add a number in cell D11, with D101, D1001, and D10001, this re-fire

the random numbers and give you a new total. Do this to produce 10

simulations for each of the 10, 100, 1000, & 10000 trails. (i.e you are

running 10 simulations of each of the different outputs, or 40 trials, 10

for 10 trials, 10, for 100, 10 for 1000, 10 for 10000).

Repeat assignment for 100, 1000 and 10000 trials.

Percentage of wins

Coun Coun Coun Coun Coun Coun Coun Coun Coun Count #

t1

t2

t3

t4

t5

t6

t7

t8

t9

10

bets

10

3

7

5

6

3

5

4

4

3

4

46

45

56

57

47

46

55

48

44

45 100

100

466

483

481

494

471

461

449

447

484

472

0

100

4690 4719 4730 4739 4805 4699 4721 4719 4777

4737

00

Percentage of wins

Coun Coun Coun Coun Coun Coun Coun Coun Coun Count #

t1

t2

t3

t4

t5

t6

t7

t8

t9

10

bets

10

30%

70%

50%

60%

30%

50%

40%

40%

30%

40%

46%

45%

56%

57%

47%

46%

55%

48%

44%

45% 100

100

47%

48%

48%

49%

47%

46%

45%

45%

48%

47%

0

100

47%

47%

47%

47%

48%

47%

47%

47%

48%

47%

00

**Percentage of Wins in a Roulette Wheel
**

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

1

2

3

10

4

100

5

6

1000

7

8

9

10

10000

Figure 1 represents the winning of 10, 100, 1000, 10000.

Probabili

Count

Mean

ty

10

4.4

0.44

100

48.9

0.489

1000

470.8

0.4708

10000

4733.6 0.47336

Ponder – Conclusion

The Law of Large Numbers, which is a theorem proved about the

mathematical model of probability, shows that this model is consistent

with the frequency interpretation of probability. From this experiment

we can conclude that as a procedure is repeated over and over, the

frequency tends to approach the actual probability. Our true probability

is 0.473684211 and we can see that the more times we bet the closer

we get to our real probability.

We can also see on the graph that it goes from 30% to 70% in the 10

tries.

As a flaw we can say that excel could be wrong maybe because it is

not for calculation.

Also we could have made any mistakes while we were entering the

random numbers that excel was giving us.

We are now in a position to prove our first fundamental theorem of

probability. We have seen that an intuitive way to view the probability of a

certain outcome is as the frequency with which that outcome occurs in the

long run, when the experiment is repeated a large number of times. We have

also defined probability mathematically as a value of a distribution function

for the random variable representing the experiment.

- EE110L Guidelines for Lab ReportsUploaded byAnonymous gCJAeDWajX
- Bab 2 (Probabilitas)Uploaded byaryo_el06
- Current Issue CHAPTER 1Uploaded byKennon Shin Dreanz Landicho
- Lab Report Marking CriteriaUploaded bydahitman007
- lesson 7Uploaded byapi-281778031
- pure_ch20Uploaded byux
- thin finalprojectUploaded byapi-302565687
- Abu 2003Uploaded byNab Square
- ch04aUploaded byMoath Alobaidy
- Kornell Metcalfe 2006aUploaded byhoorie
- ringkasanUploaded byAzaman Jamal
- Copy of Additional Mathematics Project 2010Uploaded byモハマド Hamizan
- Practical HandbookUploaded bydiane hoyles
- Sample Space NotesUploaded byFredyy
- Friedman Test-Comparing All Treatments With a ControlUploaded byRohaila Rohani
- Chapter 2-Decision Theory Problem.pdfUploaded byDrHarman Preet Singh
- Chapter 05 A Survey of Probability ConceptsUploaded bywindyuri
- observation3lessonplan-tobonnie 1Uploaded byapi-262304087
- Scale J. 1998Uploaded byLuci Pantoja Matamoros
- Lab Report FormatUploaded bySiyar Joyenda
- lec34.pdfUploaded byjay
- Emotional PerilsUploaded byDon o'Deep-Cove
- 2012 Fall 440 Midterm OneUploaded byEd Z
- timeline for website 1Uploaded byapi-403959464
- General Instructions(Jan2018)CN2108Uploaded byWen Kai Lin
- ProbabilityUploaded byrhyzone
- Understanding the Influence of the Snack Definition on the AssociationUploaded bySalmiah Othman
- Convergence in ProbabilityUploaded byMartin Stojanovic