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NDP LEADERSHIP

METHODOLOGY
Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,012 Canadians by Smart IVR™ from April 14-15, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were
surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.38%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Atlantic (ATL): +/-4.2%; Quebec: +/-3.29%; Ontario: +/-3.07%;
Prairies: +/-3.75%; Alberta: +/-3.16%; British Columbia: +/-3.37%, 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on
the 2011 Canadian Census.

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected
by copyright. The information and/or data may only
be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper
credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

CULLEN, ‘SOMEONE ELSE’ LEAD NDP LEADERSHIP RACE
April 20, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Liberal party continuing to
dominate the national landscape. With the NDP beginning their search for a new leader, Mainstreet polled
NDP voters and among them Nathan Cullen leads a potential race with 17% - tied with ‘someone else’. The
Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.38%, 19 times out of 20.
“The Liberals and Justin Trudeau continue to dominate with 48% of decided and leaning voters followed by
the Rona Ambrose led Conservatives at 30%. Tom Mulcair and the NDP continue to plumb new depths at
just 14%, with the Greens at 5% and BQ at 3%,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research.
“It looks like there might be room for a dark horse in the upcoming NDP leadership as Nathan Cullen is tied
for the lead at 17% with "someone else". With over 25% of identified NDP supporters undecided on who
they might support in what is yet an unknown field, this could open the door for one or more unknown
candidates to enter the contest. There are some regional strengths for both Jagmeet Singh in Ontario and
Niki Ashton in the prairies.

“Among NDP supporters, Rachel Notley has the highest favourability score with +60, followed in a distant
second by Nathan Cullen at +28 and a strong third for Jagmeet Singh at +27. This could be a factor in the
upcoming leadership as Notley's influence in the party grows.”
“The Leap Manifesto is a hot topic among respondents, with 53% saying they are following this very closely
and another 27% somewhat closely. This compared to just 16% combined who said they were not following
it closely or not at all. Approval is split with a majority saying they approve (58%) vs 31% who disapprove.
The breakdown among support is interesting with strong approval (17%) and strong disapproval (20%). This
issue will continue to dominate headlines and the coming leadership contest,” finished Maggi.
About Mainstreet Research
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of
government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public
opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British
Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm
in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only
polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
-30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
For more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

A3

If a Federal Election were held today, which party
would you support?

40
35
30
25
20
15
10

10%

4%

2%

13%

27%

0

44%

5

LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC UD

A4

If a Federal Election were held today, which party
would you support?

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Liberal

48%

38%

45%

42%

44%

44%

Conservative

21%

30%

29%

29%

28%

26%

NDP

18%

12%

10%

11%

13%

13%

Bloc Québécois

2%

3%

2%

3%

2%

3%

Green

5%

5%

3%

2%

4%

4%

Undecided

7%

12%

10%

13%

9%

12%

604

1,233

1,550

1,625

2,457

2,555

Nat.

BC

AB

Prairies

ON

QC

ATL

Liberal

44%

40%

29%

42%

50%

41%

46%

Conservative

27%

22%

48%

35%

26%

20%

28%

NDP

13%

12%

8%

10%

12%

18%

11%

Bloc Québécois

2%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

10%

N/A

Green

4%

13%

2%

3%

2%

2%

4%

Undecided

10%

13%

13%

10%

9%

9%

11%

Sample

5,012

889

888

680

1,110

900

535

Sample

A5

Decided and Leaning

45
40
35
30
25
20
15

5%

14%

30%

0

48%

5

3%

10

LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC

A6

Decided and Leaning

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Liberal

52%

43%

50%

47%

47%

49%

Conservative

22%

34%

32%

34%

31%

29%

NDP

19%

13%

11%

12%

14%

15%

Bloc Québécois

2%

3%

3%

3%

2%

3%

Green

5%

6%

4%

3%

5%

4%

Sample

576

1,152

1,463

1,528

2,347

2,373

Nat.

BC

AB

Prairies

ON

QC

ATL

Liberal

48%

45%

35%

47%

55%

45%

51%

Conservative

30%

25%

53%

38%

29%

21%

32%

NDP

14%

15%

9%

11%

13%

20%

12%

Bloc Québécois

3%

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

12%

N/A

Green

5%

15%

3%

3%

3%

2%

5%

4,720

830

831

645

1,059

847

508

Sample

A7

And which party are you
leaning towards voting for?

20%

12%

53%

8%

4%

1%

LPC CPC NDP BQ GPC UD

0

Undecided 26%

Someone Else 17%

Singh 11%

Lewis 11%

Julian 10%

Cullen 17%

Boulerice 4%

Ashton 4%

A8

NDP LEADERSHIP
SAMPLE: 598
MoE: +/- 4.01

24

20

16

12

8

4

A9

NDP LEADERSHIP
[NDP VOTERS ONLY]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Niki Ashton

4%

3%

4%

5%

3%

5%

Alexandre Boulerice

4%

3%

4%

5%

5%

3%

Nathan Cullen

15%

20%

16%

20%

16%

18%

Peter Julian

12%

10%

8%

9%

11%

9%

Avi Lewis

6%

12%

16%

14%

11%

11%

Jagmeet Singh

10%

11%

15%

9%

12%

10%

Someone else

13%

17%

20%

23%

18%

16%

Undecided

37%

23%

19%

15%

24%

28%

Nat.

BC

AB

Prairies

ON

QC

ATL

N. Ashton

4%

4%

5%

39%

2%

1%

3%

A. Boulerice

4%

1%

2%

3%

0%

10%

3%

N. Cullen

17%

30%

19%

9%

16%

14%

16%

P. Julian

10%

26%

19%

9%

8%

5%

11%

A. Lewis

11%

10%

5%

9%

8%

15%

11%

J. Singh

11%

8%

9%

6%

20%

5%

5%

Someone else

17%

5%

16%

9%

16%

24%

16%

Undecided

26%

16%

26%

15%

29%

26%

35%

A10

Favourability Ratings
[NDP VOTERS ONLY]

Ashton 32%

11%

Boulerice 17%

11%

15%

14%

43%

57%

Cullen 55%

27%

Julian 21%

9%

17%

Lewis 41%

5% 27%

6% 27%

Cardy 35%

11%

28%

Horgan

53%
27%

Singh 33%

5% 13%

34%
7% 47%

22%

20%

30%

Notley 71%
0

10

11%
20

Favourable

30

40

Unfavourable

50

60

Not Sure

70

80

13%

5%

90

100

Not Familiar With

A11

How closely have you been following the Leap
Manifesto? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]

5%

4%

11%

53%

27%

Very Closely

Somewhat Closely

Not Too Closely

Not At All Closely

Not Aware

A12

How closely have you been following the Leap
Manifesto? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Very Closely

46%

63%

55%

53%

52%

54%

Somewhat Closely

37%

13%

26%

28%

26%

28%

Not Too Closely

10%

13%

10%

10%

13%

9%

Not At All Closely

4%

7%

5%

5%

5%

5%

Not Aware

3%

5%

4%

5%

4%

4%

Nat.

BC

AB

Prairies

ON

QC

ATL

Very

53%

52%

63%

45%

54%

52%

54%

Somewhat

27%

26%

23%

27%

26%

29%

27%

Not Too

11%

13%

7%

15%

12%

10%

11%

Not At All

5%

5%

5%

9%

4%

5%

3%

Not Aware

4%

4%

2%

3%

4%

4%

5%

A13

And do you approve or disapprove of the Leap
Manifesto? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]

11%

31%
58%

Approve

Disapprove

Not Sure

A14

And do you approve or disapprove of the Leap
Manifesto? [NDP VOTERS ONLY]

18-34

35-49

50-64

65+

Male

Female

Strongly Approve

19%

19%

13%

15%

18%

16%

Somewhat Approve

40%

40%

45%

41%

44%

38%

Somewhat Disapprove

6%

6%

5%

7%

5%

7%

Strongly Disapprove

23%

23%

28%

27%

20%

29%

Not Sure

12%

11%

9%

10%

13%

9%

Nat.

BC

AB

Prairies

ON

QC

ATL

Str Approve

17%

17%

7%

15%

20%

17%

14%

SW Approve

41%

43%

9%

42%

41%

45%

43%

SW Disapprove

6%

3%

12%

9%

5%

7%

8%

Str Disapprove

25%

25%

67%

21%

23%

20%

22%

Not Sure

11%

13%

5%

12%

11%

11%

14%

A15

SCRIPT

If a Federal Election were held today, which party would you support?
Conservative Party led by Rona Ambrose
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Québécois led by Rheal Fortin
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for?
Conservative Party led by Rona Ambrose
NDP led by Tom Mulcair
Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau
Bloc Québécois led by Rheal Fortin
Green Party led by Elizabeth May
Undecided
The NDP will be holding a leadership race to choose a new leader. Of the following candidates, whom
would you vote for if you could to be the next NDP Leader?
Niki Ashton
Alexandre Boulerice
Nathan Cullen
Peter Julian
Megan Leslie
Avi Lewis
Jagmeet Singh
Someone else
Undecided
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Niki Ashton?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Alexandre Boulerice?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Peter Julian?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Megan Leslie?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Avi Lewis?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jagmeet Singh?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Nathan Cullen?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar with [Candidate Name]

A16

SCRIPT

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rachel Notley?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Dominic Cardy?
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of John Horgan?
Favourable
Unfavourable
Not Sure
Not Familiar with [Candidate Name]
How closely have you been following the Leap Manifesto?
Very closely
Somewhat closely
Not too closely
Not at all closely
Not aware of the Leap Manifesto
And do you approve or disapprove of the Leap Manifesto?
Strongly approve
Somewhat approve
Somewhat disapprove
Strongly disapprove
Not sure

ONLY WE
CALLED
THE
LIBERAL
MAJORITY.

“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview
with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week
before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013,
in defiance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East
| Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority
government in the 2015 federal election.

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