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NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll

April 2016
Pennsylvania Questionnaire
Residents: n=3,006, MOE +/- 1.8%
Registered Voters: n=2,606, MOE +/- 1.9%
Potential Republican Electorate: n=1,001, MOE +/- 3.1%
Likely Republican Primary Voters: n=571, MOE +/- 4.1%
Potential Democratic Electorate: n=1,290, MOE +/- 2.7%
Likely Democratic Primary Voters: n=734, MOE +/- 3.6%
Screener
<Marist Poll Introduction> Are you 18 years of age or older?
Do you consider your permanent home address to be in Pennsylvania?
HH SELECTION – LANDLINE FRAME ONLY
GENDER GUESS
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as
president?
REGISTERED VOTERS
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total

Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tom Wolf is doing as governor?
REGISTERED VOTERS
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Pat Toomey is doing as U.S
Senator?
REGISTERED VOTERS
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total
RESIDENTS
Approve
Disapprove
Unsure
Total

April 2016
49
47
4
100
April 2016
49
46
5
100

April 2016
45
41
14
100
April 2016
45
40
15
100

April 2016
43
29
28
100
April 2016
42
28
30
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Pennsylvania April 2016; Page 1

If the 2016 Republican presidential primary in Pennsylvania were held today,
whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who are
undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or voted absentee):
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Other
Undecided
Total

POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
John Kasich
Other
Undecided
Total
Who is your second choice for the 2016 Republican presidential primary in
Pennsylvania (including those who are undecided yet leaning toward a
candidate):
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE
PREFERENCE
John Kasich
Ted Cruz
Donald Trump
Other
Undecided
Total
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
John Kasich
Ted Cruz
Donald Trump
Other
Undecided
Total

April 2016
45
27
24
1
3
100

April 2016
43
27
25
1
4
100

April 2016
40
30
18
2
10
100
April 2016
39
31
18
2
10
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Pennsylvania April 2016; Page 2

Would you say you strongly support <candidate>, somewhat support
<candidate>,* or do you think you might vote differently on Primary Day?
LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE
PREFERENCE
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN ELECTORATE
WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total

April 2016
60
30
9
0
100
April 2016
56
32
11
1
100

* including those who voted absentee
If the 2016 Democratic presidential primary in Pennsylvania were held today,
whom would you support if the candidates are (including those who are
undecided yet leaning toward a candidate or voted absentee):
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Other
Undecided
Total

April 2016
55
40
0
4
100

POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Other
Undecided
Total

April 2016
52
43
0
5
100

Would you say you strongly support <candidate>, somewhat support
<candidate>,* or do you think you might vote differently on Primary Day?
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS WITH A CANDIDATE
PREFERENCE
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total
POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ELECTORATE
WITH A CANDIDATE PREFERENCE
Strongly support
Somewhat support
Might vote differently
Unsure
Total

April 2016
70
22
7
1
100
April 2016
65
26
8
1
100

* including those who voted absentee

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Pennsylvania April 2016; Page 3

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
Donald Trump, the Republican
Undecided
Total

April 2016
54
39
7
100

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
John Kasich, the Republican
Undecided
Total

April 2016
45
48
7
100

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Hillary Clinton, the Democrat
Ted Cruz, the Republican
Undecided
Total

April 2016
52
41
6
100

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Bernie Sanders, the Democrat
Donald Trump, the Republican
Undecided
Total

April 2016
57
37
5
100

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Bernie Sanders, the Democrat
John Kasich, the Republican
Undecided
Total

April 2016
50
44
6
100

If the 2016 presidential election were held today, whom would you support if the candidates are:
REGISTERED VOTERS
Bernie Sanders, the Democrat
Ted Cruz, the Republican
Undecided
Total

April 2016
58
36
6
100

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Pennsylvania April 2016; Page 4

The Senate Republicans have said they will not hold confirmation hearings for President Obama's
Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland, but will wait for the nominee of the next president. If
Republican Senator Pat Toomey agrees with his fellow Republicans to wait for the next president's
nominee, would you be more likely to vote for Senator Toomey for re-election in November, less likely
to vote for him, or does this not make a difference on how you might vote? [Asked of Split Sample]
REGISTERED VOTERS
More likely to vote for him
Less likely to vote for him
No difference to your vote
Unsure
Total

April 2016
18
34
45
3
100

The Senate Republicans have said they will not hold confirmation hearings for President Obama's
Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland, but will wait for the nominee of the next president. If
Republican Senator Pat Toomey disagrees with his fellow Republicans and wants to hold
confirmation hearings now, would you be more likely to vote for Senator Toomey for re-election in
November, less likely to vote for him, or does this not make a difference on how you might vote?
[Asked of Split Sample]
REGISTERED VOTERS
More likely to vote for him
Less likely to vote for him
No difference to your vote
Unsure
Total

April 2016
26
17
54
3
100

Are you male or female?
RESIDENTS

April 2016
48
52
100

REGISTERED VOTERS

April 2016
48
52
100

LIKELY REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS

April 2016
50
50
100

LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS

April 2016
42
58
100

Male
Female
Total

Male
Female
Total

Male
Female
Total

Male
Female
Total

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Poll: Pennsylvania April 2016; Page 5