Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ABSTRACT
Modeling of wind speed variation is an essential
requirement in the estimation of the wind energy
potential for a typical site. In this paper, the wind
energy potential in Ibadan (Lat. 7.430N; Long.
3.90E; Alt. 227.2m) is statistically analyzed using
daily wind speed data for 10 years (1995-2004)
obtained from the International Institute of
Tropical Agriculture (IITA), Ibadan, Nigeria. The
daily, monthly, seasonal, and yearly wind speed
probability density distributions are modeled using
Weibull Distribution Function. The measured
annual mean wind speed in Ibadan is 2.75 ms-1,
while mean wind speed and the power density
predicted by the Weibull probability density
function are 2.947 m/s and 15.484 Wm-2,
respectively. Ibadan can be classified as a low
wind energy region. The coefficient of
determination (R2) between the actual wind
speeds and the Weibull predicted values ranged
between 0.475 - 0.792. The Weibull distribution
function can be used with acceptable accuracy for
prediction of wind energy output required for
preliminary design and assessment of wind power
plants.
(Keywords: Ibadan, wind speed, renewable energy,
Weibull distribution function, statistical modeling)
INTRODUCTION
Nigeria is richly endowed with both fossil energy
resources such as crude oil, natural gas, coal,
and renewable energy resources like solar, wind,
biomass, biogas, etc. For many decades, fossil
fuels and firewood (conventional energy
resources) have continually remained the major
energy sources which account over 90% of the
national energy consumption (Akinbami et al.,
2001). However, in recent times, there has been
a continual decline in supply of conventional
110
Volume 9. Number 1. May-June 2008 (Spring)
k v
f (v ) =
c c
k 1
v k
exp
c
(1)
v k
F (v ) = 1 exp
c
(2)
(3)
111
Volume 9. Number 1. May-June 2008 (Spring)
1
v m = c1 +
k
(4)
1
RMSE =
N
P(v ) =
1
Av m 3
2
P(v ) 1 3
= c 1 +
A
2
(6)
( y i z )2 ( x i z )2
i =1
i =1
(y
i =1
(y
xi )
(y
z)
i =1
N
i =1
(8)
(9)
2
R2 =
i =1
xi )
(5)
p(v ) =
(y
COE =
z)
(7)
2
112
Volume 9. Number 1. May-June 2008 (Spring)
1995
2000
9
8
6
7
6
5
4
3
2
2
1
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
50
100
150
1996
250
300
350
250
300
350
250
300
350
250
300
350
2001
5
Wind speed (m/s)
200
Day
Day
2
2
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Day
6
Wind speed (m/s)
6
5
4
150
200
2002
3
2
100
250
300
350
50
100
150
Day
200
Day
1998
200
50
150
100
50
Day
1997
2003
10
9
6
Wind speed (m/s)
5
4
3
6
5
4
3
2
2
1
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
50
100
150
1999
200
Day
Day
2004
5
4.5
6
5
3.5
4
3
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
1
0.5
0
50
100
150
200
250
Day
300
350
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Day
Figure 1: Daily Mean Actual Wind Speed Variation in Ibadan Between 1995 and 2004.
The Pacific Journal of Science and Technology
http://www.akamaiuniversity.us/PJST.htm
113
Volume 9. Number 1. May-June 2008 (Spring)
Table 1: Monthly Mean Actual Wind Speeds and Standard Deviations in Ibadan from 1995 to 2004.
Month
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Yearly
Parameters
vm
vm
vm
vm
vm
vm
vm
vm
vm
vm
vm
vm
vm
1995
2.352
0.739
3.643
0.766
4.332
1.012
4.113
1.140
3.484
0.982
3.530
0.936
4.036
0.930
3.894
0.886
3.723
0.879
2.961
0.785
2.137
0.556
2.607
0.713
3.399
1.105
1996
2.977
0.818
4.321
0.845
5.397
0.861
4.023
1.129
4.561
0.866
5.133
0.774
5.023
0.779
4.910
0.828
4.370
0.669
3.884
0.882
3.830
0.798
3.919
0.619
4.363
1.052
1997
4.474
0.985
4.132
1.164
5.174
1.143
4.227
1.049
3.871
0.810
3.977
0.825
4.523
0.929
3.087
0.942
4.267
0.930
3.555
0.768
3.097
0.766
3.210
1.119
3.966
1.129
1998
3.474
1.606
4.400
1.106
4.807
1.123
5.390
1.219
4.103
1.008
3.250
1.026
3.365
1.297
3.803
1.780
2.303
1.771
1.513
1.354
2.133
1.113
1.426
0.951
3.323
1.777
1999
3.471
1.203
3.696
1.069
3.552
1.034
3.743
1.348
3.226
1.338
3.193
1.391
3.042
1.793
3.613
1.738
1.667
1.394
1.555
1.549
2.463
1.916
3.058
1.466
3.021
1.609
2000
3.058
1.358
3.203
1.611
4.810
1.412
5.340
1.427
3.655
2.275
3.127
1.849
3.107
1.912
1.781
0.752
1.883
0.897
1.810
0.817
1.517
0.515
1.587
0.573
2.904
1.830
2001
1.345
0.698
2.614
1.304
3.629
0.972
2.837
1.803
4.219
1.792
1.300
0.678
1.026
0.377
1.007
0.468
0.645
0.429
0.453
0.303
0.519
0.275
0.520
0.669
1.672
1.577
2002
0.652
0.719
1.011
0.540
2.891
1.881
1.261
1.043
1.496
0.885
1.657
0.934
1.474
1.149
1.853
1.266
1.353
0.891
0.868
0.536
1.133
0.640
1.448
0.917
1.429
1.145
2003
1.426
0.611
3.522
2.698
2.419
1.290
1.537
1.123
1.943
1.055
1.223
0.817
0.826
0.614
1.645
1.190
0.963
0.921
0.810
0.433
0.513
0.408
1.016
0.487
1.475
1.353
2004
0.816
0.504
2.338
0.998
1.403
0.579
1.910
1.068
1.184
0.613
0.893
0.578
1.145
0.629
1.297
0.974
3.130
0.878
2.936
0.544
2.950
0.659
3.119
0.683
1.921
1.147
Whole
year
2.405
1.564
3.288
1.649
3.841
1.698
3.438
1.880
3.174
1.685
2.728
1.676
2.757
1.850
2.689
1.702
2.431
1.643
2.034
1.445
2.029
1.367
2.191
1.372
2.748
1.725
114
Volume 9. Number 1. May-June 2008 (Spring)
Table 2: Typical Probability Density and Cumulative Density Distributions of the Measured Wind Speed
for February of the Whole Year and the Calculated Values from Weibull Distribution Function.
n
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
vi
0-1
1-2
2-3
3-4
4-5
5-6
6-7
7-8
8-9
9 - 10
vm,i
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
4.5
5.5
6.5
7.5
8.5
9.5
Probability density
distribution
fA(vi)
fW(vi)
0.088
0.197
0.159
0.208
0.187
0.175
0.283
0.135
0.166
0.099
0.081
0.069
0.011
0.047
0.004
0.031
0.014
0.020
0.007
0.013
fi
25
45
53
80
47
23
3
1
4
2
4.5
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
5.0
Years
0.4
Cumulative Probability
distribution
FA(vi)
FW(vi)
0.088
0.197
0.247
0.404
0.435
0.579
0.717
0.714
0.883
0.813
0.965
0.882
0.975
0.929
0.979
0.960
0.993
0.980
1.000
0.993
Jan
0.4
Feb
Mar
0.3
Apr
May
0.3
June
July
0.2
Aug
0.2
Sep
Oct
0.1
Nov
Dec
0.1
0.0
0
10
115
Volume 9. Number 1. May-June 2008 (Spring)
0.25
1.0
Probability distribution
Jan
0.9
Feb
0.8
Mar
0.7
Apr
0.6
May
June
0.5
July
0.4
Aug
0.3
Sep
Oct
0.2
Nov
0.1
Rain
0.20
Dry
Whole year
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Dec
0.0
0
10
10
0.40
Actual data
0.35
Weibull distribution
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
0
10
k
1.146
1.496
1.610
1.249
1.396
1.077
1.071
1.081
1.024
1.065
1.017
1.178
c(m/s)
1.934
2.907
3.595
2.999
2.557
2.199
2.077
2.237
1.846
1.436
1.510
1.639
Model Performance
Parameters
2
R
0.739
0.518
0.453
0.489
0.475
0.720
0.704
0.748
0.774
0.792
0.775
0.748
RMSE
0.067
0.068
0.061
0.061
0.075
0.061
0.065
0.057
0.063
0.074
0.071
0.076
COE
0.521
0.437
0.387
0.186
0.102
0.487
0.453
0.535
0.580
0.599
0.615
0.486
116
Volume 9. Number 1. May-June 2008 (Spring)
Table 4: Seasonal Weibull Distribution Parameters, Performance Parameters, Mean Wind Speed, and
Wind Power Density in Ibadan, between 1995 and 2004.
Season
Rain
Dry
Whole year
k
1.255
1.259
1.274
c
(m/s)
2.116
2.070
2.100
R2
0.707
0.689
0.718
CONCLUSIONS
The daily measured time series wind speed data
for Ibadan, Nigeria have been analyzed
statistically based on Weibull probability
distribution function. The daily, monthly, seasonal
and yearly Weibull probability distribution
parameters, mean wind speeds and wind energy
density availability for the location have been
determined. Based on the analysis the following
conclusions can be made:
RMSE
0.068
0.069
0.068
COE
0.298
0.426
0.335
vm
(m/s)
2.969
2.925
2.947
Power density
(Wm -2)
15.834
15.140
15.484
NOMENCLATURE
(a) The actual mean yearly wind speed of 2.748
m/s for Ibadan shows the Ibadan is in a low
wind speed region.
(b) The yearly wind power density value of
12.555 Wm-2 for the whole year indicates that
Ibadan belongs to wind power class 1, since
the density value is less than 100 Wm-2
(Akpinar and Akpinar, 2004) . Hence, wind
power availability in Ibadan can only be used
small stand-alone wind power systems, such
as battery charging and for powering street
light and water pumps.
(c) The mean yearly wind speed of 2.748 m/s for
Ibadan shows the Ibadan is in a low wind
speed region.
(d) The yearly wind power density value of
12.555 Wm-2 for the whole year indicates that
the location belongs to wind power class 1,
since the density value is less than 100 Wm-2
(Akpinar and Akpinar, 2004) . Hence, wind
power availability in Ibadan can only be used
small stand-alone wind power systems, such
as battery charging and for powering street
light and water pumps.
(e) The Weibull probability distribution scale
parameters (c) are consistently higher in
values and variability than the shape
parameters (k) for the daily, monthly,
seasonal and yearly distributions.
The Pacific Journal of Science and Technology
http://www.akamaiuniversity.us/PJST.htm
f(v)
F(v)
vm
(x )
gamma function of ( x ) .
P (v )
p (v )
R2
correlation coefficient
coefficient of efficiency.
yi
117
Volume 9. Number 1. May-June 2008 (Spring)
xi
number of observations.
standard deviation
REFERENCES
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
118
Volume 9. Number 1. May-June 2008 (Spring)
SUGGESTED CITATION
Fadare, D.A. 2008. A Statistical Analysis of Wind
Energy Potential in Ibadan, Nigeria, Based on
Weibull Distribution Function. Pacific Journal of
Science and Technology. 9(1):110-119.
119
Volume 9. Number 1. May-June 2008 (Spring)