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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, May 3, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of April 25, 2016 through May 1, 2016 are among a national sample of 14,640 adults aged 18 and over,
including 12,462 registered voters (+/- 1.2%), 3,479 registered Republican voters (+/-2.2%) and 4,418 registered Democratic voters
(+/-1.9%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.
TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

4/25-5-1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
4/25-5-1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

Strongly disapprove
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

No answer
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Republican presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Republican nomination for president? [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]*

4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Jeb
Bush
4
4
3
3
4
4
3
6

Ben
Carson
8
8
8
8
7
7
8
8
9
9

Chris
Christie
2
3
3
3
3
3
4

Ted
Cruz
22
26
28
30
28
27
24
24
20
18
19
18
20
20
17
21
20
18

Carly
Fiorina
1
2
2
2
3
2
3

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
2
1
2
2
2

John
Kasich
14
17
19
16
18
18
16
12
9
7
8
7
3
3
3
2
2
2

Rand
Paul
2
3
3
3
3
2

Marco
Rubio
6
11
18
21
16
14
17
12
10
11
11
13

Rick
Santorum
1
1

Donald
Trump
56
50
46
46
45
48
45
44
39
40
36
38
35
39
39
38
38
35

Don’t
Know
7
7
7
8
9
7
8
7
6
6
7
6
5
4
9
5
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Democratic presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Democratic nomination for president ? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]*
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Don’t know
No answer
4/25-5/1
54
40
6
1
4/18-4/24
52
42
6
4/11-4/17
50
43
7
4/4—4/10
49
43
7
1
3/28 – 4/3
51
42
6
1
3/21 – 3/27
49
43
8
3/14 – 3/20
53
41
6
1
3/7 – 3/13
54
41
5
2/29 – 3/6
55
38
7
1
2/22 – 2/28
51
41
8
1
2/15 – 2/21
51
40
9
1
2/8 – 2/14
50
40
9
1
2/1 – 2/7
51
1
39
8
1
1/25 – 1/31
50
2
39
8
1
1/18 – 1/24
51
2
37
9
1
1/11 – 1/17
52
1
36
9
2
1/4 – 1/10
52
2
37
8
1
12/28 – 1/3
53
2
36
8
1
* From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016
Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote? [AMONG ALL]

4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
43
44
48
43
45

Donald Trump,
the Republican
37
36
39
36
33

Don’t
know
19
19
9
19
20

No
answer
1
1
4
2
1

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote? [AMONG ALL]

4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
44
43
46
41
43

Ted Cruz, the
Republican
30
33
38
36
33

Don’t
know
24
22
11
21
22

No
answer
2
2
5
2
2

Which of the following would you like to see Bernie Sanders do about his campaign for President?* [AMONG DEM & DEM
LEANERS]

4/25-5/1

Stay in the race
through the
Democratic
convention in July

Drop out in June if he
is still running behind
after the final
primaries

Drop out of the race
now

No answer

57

25

16

2

Which of the following would you like to see Ted Cruz do about his campaign for President?* [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]

4/25-5/1

Stay in the race
through the
Republican
convention in July

Drop out in June if he
is still running behind
after the final
primaries

Drop out of the race
now

No answer

39

23

36

2

Which of the following would you like to see John Kasich do about his campaign for President?* [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]

4/25-5/1

Stay in the race
through the
Republican
convention in July

Drop out in June if he
is still running behind
after the final
primaries

Drop out of the race
now

No answer

26

15

58

1

Do you think Donald Trump has the personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president?* [AMONG ALL]

4/25-5/1

Yes
32

No
67

No
answer
1

Do you think Hillary Clinton has the personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively as president?* [AMONG ALL]

4/25-5/1

Yes
46

No
52

No
answer
1

*These questions were asked Monday, April 25 through Thursday, April 28.

As you may know, Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz announced former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina would be his
vice presidential running mate. What is your overall reaction to Ted Cruz selection of Carly Fiorina? Are you:** [AMONG ALL]

4/25-5/1

Enthusiastic
7

Satisfied, but
not enthusiastic
30

Dissatisfied,
but not
angry
48

Angry
8

No
answer
6

What do you think is the main reason Ted Cruz selected Carly Fiorina as his prospective VP?** [AMONG ALL]

4/25-5/1

Her gender
45

Her business
experience
15

Her views
on the
issues
13

Because
she is a
political
outsider
9

Some
other
reason

No
answer

14

4

Do you think Ted Cruz selected Carly Fiorina to be his running mate mostly to revitalize his campaign or mostly because he
believes she is the best candidate for Vice President?** [AMONG ALL]

4/25-5/1

To revitalize
his campaign
84

Because she is
the best
candidate for
Vice President
12

No answer
4

As you may know, the campaigns of Ted Cruz and John Kasich recently announced a deal to divide their efforts in the upcoming
primaries in order to deny the nomination to Donald Trump. What is your overall reaction? Are you:** [AMONG ALL]

4/25-5/1

Enthusiastic
13

Comfortable
with it, but not
enthusiastic
28

Uncomfort
able with it,
but not
angry
33

Angry
22

No
answer
4

**These questions were asked Thursday, April 28 through Sunday, May 1.

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of April 25, 2016 through May 1, 2016 was conducted
online among a national sample of 14,640 adults aged 18 and over, including 12,462 who say they are registered to vote.
Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform
each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census
Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of
sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error,
coverage error, and measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an
error estimate. The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.0 percentage point for the full sample and plus or
minus 1.2 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the
95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should
be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group

Unweighted N

Plus or minus

Total sample
Total RVs

14,640
12,462

1.0
1.2

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

3,479
4,418

2.2
1.9

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

1,404
1,881
2,198
3,103
3,467
2,587

3.2
2.8
2.7
2.3
2.1
2.4

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

10,368
1,413
1,508
1,351

1.2
3.3
3.1
3.3

Clinton voters
Sanders voters
Trump voters
Cruz voters

3,573
2,648
2,814
1,280

2.1
2.4
2.3
3.5