The rows are labeled by the lead after scoring a touchdown.

The rows are labeled by the lead after scoring a touchdown.
The columns are labeled by the amount of time remaining
in the game. Example: after scoring a touchdown you trail by 5 points, with 21:00 remaining in the game (i.e. 6:00 left
in the 3rd quarter). In the row corresponding to minus 5, and the column corresponding to 21:00, the entry is 0.31. This
means you should attempt a two-point conversion if your probability of making it exceeds 0.31. NFL teams make
about 40% of their two-point conversions, or perhaps a bit more. So when trailing by 5 with 21:00 to play, going for
two is the correct play.
Time Remaining In The Game
3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00
15:00
18:00
21:00
24:00
27:00
30:00
20
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.62
0.62
0.61
0.61
0.60
0.60
19
0.27
0.24
0.29
0.31
0.33
0.35
0.37
0.39
0.40
0.41
18
0.58
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.58
0.58
0.57
0.57
0.57
0.56
17
0.71
0.69
0.67
0.66
0.65
0.64
0.63
0.62
0.61
0.60
16
0.95
0.86
0.71
0.65
0.59
0.55
0.53
0.52
0.51
0.51
15
0.58
0.57
0.56
0.55
0.53
0.51
0.49
0.47
0.46
0.46
14
0.72
0.69
0.70
0.66
0.65
0.63
0.62
0.61
0.60
0.59
13
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.58
0.58
12
0.04
0.09
0.13
0.19
0.24
0.29
0.32
0.35
0.37
0.38
11
0.90
0.85
0.80
0.74
0.69
0.65
0.62
0.59
0.58
0.56
10
0.58
0.58
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.59
9
0.61
0.57
0.54
0.53
0.51
0.50
0.49
0.48
0.47
0.47
8
0.92
0.76
0.70
0.59
0.53
0.49
0.47
0.46
0.45
0.45
7
0.58
0.64
0.59
0.59
0.59
0.58
0.58
0.58
0.58
0.58
6
0.58
0.60
0.62
0.62
0.62
0.61
0.60
0.59
0.57
0.56
5
0.05
0.08
0.13
0.19
0.24
0.27
0.30
0.32
0.34
0.36
4
0.45
0.48
0.49
0.50
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.53
0.54
0.53
3
0.93
0.90
0.84
0.79
0.75
0.71
0.68
0.65
0.63
0.62
L
2
0.42
0.42
0.41
0.39
0.38
0.38
0.38
0.39
0.39
0.40
E
1
0.10
0.14
0.21
0.28
0.34
0.37
0.40
0.42
0.43
0.44
A 0
0.97
0.95
0.90
0.84
0.78
0.73
0.69
0.66
0.63
0.62
D -1
0.56
0.48
0.49
0.49
0.49
0.49
0.49
0.49
0.49
0.49
-2
0.01
0.04
0.08
0.14
0.20
0.25
0.29
0.32
0.35
0.36
-3
0.86
0.77
0.73
0.67
0.63
0.60
0.57
0.56
0.55
0.54
-4
0.56
0.59
0.60
0.61
0.61
0.61
0.61
0.60
0.59
0.58
-5
0.05
0.12
0.17
0.21
0.25
0.28
0.31
0.33
0.35
0.37
-6
0.54
0.47
0.46
0.46
0.46
0.45
0.45
0.44
0.44
0.44
-7
0.95
0.88
0.84
0.78
0.74
0.70
0.67
0.65
0.63
0.62
-8
0.38
0.39
0.38
0.37
0.37
0.38
0.39
0.40
0.41
0.42
-9
0.40
0.40
0.38
0.39
0.39
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.40
-10
0.03
0.14
0.26
0.35
0.42
0.47
0.49
0.51
0.52
0.52
-11
0.38
0.41
0.45
0.47
0.48
0.49
0.50
0.51
0.52
0.52
-12
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.39
0.39
0.39
0.39
0.40
0.40
-13
0.10
0.14
0.19
0.24
0.29
0.33
0.36
0.38
0.40
0.41
-14
0.94
0.91
0.85
0.80
0.75
0.70
0.66
0.64
0.62
0.60
-15
0.40
0.40
0.39
0.39
0.39
0.39
0.40
0.40
0.40
0.41
-16
0.27
0.29
0.30
0.31
0.33
0.35
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.39
-17
0.41
0.41
0.42
0.43
0.44
0.46
0.48
0.50
0.51
0.52
-18
0.01
0.09
0.23
0.34
0.39
0.43
0.45
0.47
0.47
0.48
-19
0.30
0.30
0.31
0.32
0.33
0.34
0.36
0.37
0.38
0.38
-20
0.39
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.41
0.42
0.42
The chart was computed using the footballcommentary.com Dynamic Programming Model, is intended to provide guidance on when to attempt a
two-point conversion.

The rows are labeled by the lead after scoring a touchdown.

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