The rows are labeled by the lead after scoring a touchdown.

The columns are labeled by the amount of time remaining
in the game. Example: after scoring a touchdown you trail by 5 points, with 21:00 remaining in the game (i.e. 6:00 left
in the 3rd quarter). In the row corresponding to minus 5, and the column corresponding to 21:00, the entry is 0.31. This
means you should attempt a two-point conversion if your probability of making it exceeds 0.31. NFL teams make
about 40% of their two-point conversions, or perhaps a bit more. So when trailing by 5 with 21:00 to play, going for
two is the correct play.

Time Remaining In The Game

3:00 6:00 9:00 12:00

15:00

18:00

21:00

24:00

27:00

30:00

20

0.63

0.63

0.63

0.63

0.62

0.62

0.61

0.61

0.60

0.60

19

0.27

0.24

0.29

0.31

0.33

0.35

0.37

0.39

0.40

0.41

18

0.58

0.57

0.57

0.57

0.58

0.58

0.57

0.57

0.57

0.56

17

0.71

0.69

0.67

0.66

0.65

0.64

0.63

0.62

0.61

0.60

16

0.95

0.86

0.71

0.65

0.59

0.55

0.53

0.52

0.51

0.51

15

0.58

0.57

0.56

0.55

0.53

0.51

0.49

0.47

0.46

0.46

14

0.72

0.69

0.70

0.66

0.65

0.63

0.62

0.61

0.60

0.59

13

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.58

0.58

12

0.04

0.09

0.13

0.19

0.24

0.29

0.32

0.35

0.37

0.38

11

0.90

0.85

0.80

0.74

0.69

0.65

0.62

0.59

0.58

0.56

10

0.58

0.58

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.59

9

0.61

0.57

0.54

0.53

0.51

0.50

0.49

0.48

0.47

0.47

8

0.92

0.76

0.70

0.59

0.53

0.49

0.47

0.46

0.45

0.45

7

0.58

0.64

0.59

0.59

0.59

0.58

0.58

0.58

0.58

0.58

6

0.58

0.60

0.62

0.62

0.62

0.61

0.60

0.59

0.57

0.56

5

0.05

0.08

0.13

0.19

0.24

0.27

0.30

0.32

0.34

0.36

4

0.45

0.48

0.49

0.50

0.51

0.52

0.53

0.53

0.54

0.53

3

0.93

0.90

0.84

0.79

0.75

0.71

0.68

0.65

0.63

0.62

L

2

0.42

0.42

0.41

0.39

0.38

0.38

0.38

0.39

0.39

0.40

E

1

0.10

0.14

0.21

0.28

0.34

0.37

0.40

0.42

0.43

0.44

A 0

0.97

0.95

0.90

0.84

0.78

0.73

0.69

0.66

0.63

0.62

D -1

0.56

0.48

0.49

0.49

0.49

0.49

0.49

0.49

0.49

0.49

-2

0.01

0.04

0.08

0.14

0.20

0.25

0.29

0.32

0.35

0.36

-3

0.86

0.77

0.73

0.67

0.63

0.60

0.57

0.56

0.55

0.54

-4

0.56

0.59

0.60

0.61

0.61

0.61

0.61

0.60

0.59

0.58

-5

0.05

0.12

0.17

0.21

0.25

0.28

0.31

0.33

0.35

0.37

-6

0.54

0.47

0.46

0.46

0.46

0.45

0.45

0.44

0.44

0.44

-7

0.95

0.88

0.84

0.78

0.74

0.70

0.67

0.65

0.63

0.62

-8

0.38

0.39

0.38

0.37

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.40

0.41

0.42

-9

0.40

0.40

0.38

0.39

0.39

0.40

0.40

0.40

0.40

0.40

-10

0.03

0.14

0.26

0.35

0.42

0.47

0.49

0.51

0.52

0.52

-11

0.38

0.41

0.45

0.47

0.48

0.49

0.50

0.51

0.52

0.52

-12

0.40

0.40

0.40

0.40

0.39

0.39

0.39

0.39

0.40

0.40

-13

0.10

0.14

0.19

0.24

0.29

0.33

0.36

0.38

0.40

0.41

-14

0.94

0.91

0.85

0.80

0.75

0.70

0.66

0.64

0.62

0.60

-15

0.40

0.40

0.39

0.39

0.39

0.39

0.40

0.40

0.40

0.41

-16

0.27

0.29

0.30

0.31

0.33

0.35

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.39

-17

0.41

0.41

0.42

0.43

0.44

0.46

0.48

0.50

0.51

0.52

-18

0.01

0.09

0.23

0.34

0.39

0.43

0.45

0.47

0.47

0.48

-19

0.30

0.30

0.31

0.32

0.33

0.34

0.36

0.37

0.38

0.38

-20

0.39

0.41

0.41

0.41

0.41

0.41

0.41

0.41

0.42

0.42

The chart was computed using the footballcommentary.com Dynamic Programming Model, is intended to provide guidance on when to attempt a
two-point conversion.