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STUDENT SOLUTIONS MANUAL

FOR

M E N D E N HALL,

BEAVER,

I N T R O D U C T I O N

AND

BEAVER’S

TO

PROBABILITY
STATISTICS

Duxbury

Student Solutions Manual
for

M endenhall, Beaver, and Beaver's
itro d u c tio n to P ro b a b ility and S tatistics
Twelfth Edition

Barbara M. Beaver
University of California, Riverside

T H O M

S O N

* — ------BR O O K S/C O L E

alia • Cariada • México • Singapore • Spain • United Kingdom • U nited States

© 2 0 0 6 D u x b u ry , a n im p rin t o f T h o m so n B ro o k s/C o le ,
a p a rt o f T h e T h o m so n C o rp o ra tio n . T h o m so n , th e S tar
log o, an d B ro o k s/C o le are tra d e m a rk s u se d h erein
u n d e r license.

T h o m so n H ig h er E d u c a tio n
10 D a v is D riv e
B e lm o n t, C A 9 4 0 0 2 -3 0 9 8
U SA

A L L R IG H T S R E S E R V E D . N o p a rt o f th is w ork
c o v e re d b y th e co p y rig h t h e re o n m ay be re p ro d u c ed

A sia (in c lu d in g In d ia )
T h o m so n L earn in g
5 S h e n to n W ay
#01-01 U IC B u ild in g
S in g a p o re 0 6 8 8 0 8

o r u sed in an y fo rm o r b y a n y m ean s— g rap h ic,
e le c tro n ic , o r m ech a n ical, in c lu d in g p h o to co p y in g ,
re c o rd in g , tap in g , W eb d istrib u tio n , in fo rm atio n
sto rag e an d retrie v al sy stem s, o r in a n y o th e r
m an n er— w ith o u t the w ritten p e rm issio n o f the
p u b lish er.
P rin te d in C añada
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

09

08

07

06

05

P rin ter: W e b c o m L im ited
IS B N : 0 -5 3 4 -4 6 3 2 5 -8

F o r m ore in fo rm a tio n a b o u t o u r p ro d u cts,
co n ta c t u s at:
T h o m so n L ea rn in g A c a d e m ic R e so u r c e C en ter
1-8 0 0 -4 2 3 -0 5 6 3
F o r p e rm issio n to use m ate ria l ffo m th is te x t or
p ro d u ct, su b m it a re q u e s t o n lin e at
h ttp ://w w w .th o m so n r ig h ts.c o m .
A n y a d d itio n al q u e stio n s a b o u t p e rm issio n s ca n be
su b m itted b y em ail to th o m so n r ig h ts@ th o m so n .c o m .

A u stra lia /N e w Z ea la n d
T h o m so n L ea rn in g A u stra lia
102 D o d d s S treet
S o u th b an k , V ic to ria 3 0 0 6
A u stralia
C añada
T h o m so n N e lso n
1120 B irch m o u n t R o ad
T o ro n to , O n tario M 1 K 5G 4
C añ ad a
U K /E u r o p e /M id d le E a st/A fr ic a
T h o m so n L earn in g
H igh H o lb o m H o u se
5 0 -5 1 B e d fo rd R o a d
London W C 1R 4L R
U n ite d K in g d o m
L a tin A m erica
T h o m so n L ea rn in g
S en eca, 53
C o lo n ia P o lan co
11560 M éx ico
D .F . M éx ico
S p a in (in c lu d in g P o r tu g a l)
T h o m so n P aran in fo
C alle M a g a lla n es, 25
2 8 0 1 5 M a d rid , S p ain

Table of Contents 1: D escribing D ata w ith G raphs 1 2: D escribing D ata w ith N um erical M easures 9 3: D escribing B ivariate Data 23 4: P robability and Probability D istributions 31 5: Several U seful D iscrete D istributions 43 6: T he N orm al P robability D istribution 53 7: S am pling D istributions 65 8: L arge-Sam ple E stim ation 71 9: L arge-Sam ple T ests o f H ypotheses 81 10: Inference from Sm all Sam ples 91 11: T he A nalysis o f V ariance 107 12: L inear R egression and C orrelation 119 13: M últiple R egression A nalysis 135 14: A nalysis o f C ategorical Data 141 15: N onparam etric Statistics 151 .

w e c h o o se to use a p ie ch a rt. c A n sw ers w ill vary. a n d the sam p le m ay n o t be re p rese n ta tiv e o f the p o p u latio n o f interest. w h ich w ill ac co u n t fo r the o th e r 6 % o f the resp o n ses. b T h e in d iv id u al on w hich the v ariab le is m easu red is the student. b E ith e r ty pe o f c h a rt is a p p ro p ria te . is th e a z ale a plant.b u t co n sists o f the read in g sco res for all stu d en ts w h o co u ld p o ssib ly be tau g h t by th is m ethod. W e sh o u ld add an o th er c a te g o ry called “O th er” . u n it u n it u n it u n it on w h ich the n u m b e r o f erro rs is m easu red is the exam . the in d iv id u al o r o b je c t on w h ich a v a riab le is m easu red . w e a re n o t actu a lly sa m p lin g fro m the p o p u latio n o f interest. a T h e v ariab le “re ad in g sc o re ” is a q u a n tita tiv e v aria b le . the p o p u latio n o f v o ter o p in io n s c h a n g e s w ith tim e. 1 . 13 a T h e p ercen tag es g iv en in the ex e rc ise o n ly a d d to 9 4 % .1: Describing Data with Graphs a T h e ex p erim en tal is the student. A s tim e p asses. w h ich is p ro b ab ly in teg er-v alu ed an d h en ee d iscrete . v o te r o p in io n s c h a n g e. T h e p o p u latio n o f in terest co n sists o f v o ter o p in io n s (fo r o r ag a in st the c a n d id a te ) at the tim e o f the elec tio n fo r all p e rso n s v o tin g in th e e lec tio n . b T h e ex p erim en tal c T h e ex p erim en tal d T h e ex p erim en tal e T h e ex p erim en tal un it. is th e car. N o te th at w hen a sam ple is tak en (at so m e tim e p rio r o r the ele c tio n ). show n in the figure below . S in ce the d ata is alread y p resen ted as p e rc en tag es o f the w h o le g ro u p . is the patient.it d o es n o t e x ist in fact . c T h e p o p u latio n is h y p o th e tica l . H en ee.

the p ro p o rtio n o f m easu re m en ts g re a te r then 1 is the sam e as th e p ro p o rtio n o f “2 ” s. T h e b ars are very c ió se to the c o rre c t prop o rtion s. 2 .21 a S in ce th e v ariab le o f in terest c a n o nly take the v alú es 0 . and 2.30 0.25 . o r 2.3 0 . th e c lasse s can be c h o sen as the in teg er v alú es 0 .15 a T h e total p e rc e n ta g e o f re sp o n se s g iv en in the table is o nly (4 0 + 34 + 19)% = 93% . T h e b a r c h a rt is 1. c S im ilar to p rev io u s ex erc ise s. H en ee th ere are 7% o f the o p in io n s n o t re c o rd e d .1. T he pie ch art is show n b elo w . b Y es. T he tab le b elo w sh o w s the c la sse s. w h ich sh o u ld g o into a c a te g o ry c a lle d “O th e r” o r “M o re than a few d a y s” .45 .5 b U sin g th e tab le in p art a. or 0.___________ _______________________ V alu é F req u en ey R ela tiv e F req u en ey 0 1 5 9 2 6 . th eir c o rre sp o n d in g freq u e n cie s and th eir relativ e freq u en cies. 1. 1. T h e relativ e freq u en ey h isto g ram is sh o w n below .

1 3.250 11111 15 . o r 0 .6 5 6 7 8 2 .6 3. is . ro u n d e d to th e nearest c o n v e n ie n t fractio n .017 1 1 11 2 1 1 9 10 4. b u t is ra th e r b im o d al w ith tw o peaks c e n te re d aro u n d th e sco res 65 and 85. a T h e test sco res are g ra p h ed u sin g a stem an d le a f p lo t g e n e ra te d by Mi ni t ab . W e m u st n o w sele ct in te rv al b o u n d a ries su c h th a t no m easu rem en t c an fall o n a b o u n d a ry p o in t.6 1 11 T h e re lativ e freq u en cy h isto g ra m is sh o w n below .6 .6 t o < 1.067 .0 2 5 8 9 (2) 9 7 3 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 N =20 57 123 578 2 56 24 6679 134 b -c T h e d istrib u tio n is not m o u n d -sh a p e d .6 to < 5.4 5 .250 11111 10 4 .6 0 . are c o n v en ie n t a n d a ta lly is co n stru c te d .167 .1 5.1 to < 2.6 to < 1.1 to < .0 0 0 1 .6 1 4 .033 . d T h e p ro b ab ility o f sele c tin g a “2 ” in a ra n d o m selectio n fro m th ese tw en ty m e a su re m e n ts is 6 / 2 0 = 3 0 . Stem-and-Leaf Display: S co res Stem-and-leaf of Scores Leaf Unit = 1. o r 5.4 5 = .1 to < 1.5 0 (5 . ^ ^ _______________________ R ela tiv e freq u en cy .1 to < 3. 3 1 . w ith each c lass in terv al hav in g len g th 0 .1 3 1. .1.6 to < 3.017 .017 . S in ce the n u m b e r o f class in terv als sh o u ld be b etw een five an d tw en ty .6 4 1.1 to < 0. T h is m ig h t in d ícate th a t the stu d e n ts are d iv id ed in to tw o g ro u p s . C la ss T a lly C la ss í B o u n d a r ie s i fjn 1 2 0.1 11111 11111 11111 11111 11111 11111 1111 11111 11111 10 15 .1 to < 5.0 units.0 /1 1 = .50). T h e su b in te rv a ls .th o se w h o u n d e rsta n d the m aterial a n d d o w ell on exam s. w e ch o o se to use e lev e n c la ss in terv als.1 to < 4 .1 2.6 to < 4.167 .6 to < 2. w h ich . m o u n d -sh ap e d d istrib u tio n . e T h e re are no o u tliers in th is re la tiv e ly sy m m e tric .2 .c T h e p ro p o rtio n o f m e a su re m e n ts less th an 2 is th e sam e as th e p ro p o rtio n o f “0 ” s a n d “ l ”s.2 5 + 0 .70 . a T h e d a ta ran g es fro m .2 to 5 .017 0 . a n d th o se w ho d o not h av e a th o ro u g h co m m a n d o f the m aterial. an d so on.

lo o k fo r the lik e lih o o d o f o b serv in g e x trem e ly large o r e x trem e ly sm all v alú es o f the v ariab le o f in terest.2 m inutes.35 a H isto g ram s w ill v a ry fro m stu d e n t to student.39 T o d e te rm in e w h e th e r a d istrib u tio n is lik ely to be skew ed. c T h e tw o g rap h s co n v e y the sam e in fo rm atio n. w ith several u n u su ally large o b serv atio n s. 1. w hile the h isto g ram d o e s not. P e rh ap s the su p e rm a rk e t w as u n d e rsta ffe d th at day . T h e stem and le a f p lo t allo w s us to actu a lly re c re a te the actual d a ta set.15/60 10/60 IV I 5/60 0 a T h e d is trib u tio n is sk ew ed to th e rig h t. 1. the c h an ce is 2 o u t o f 2 0 or 2 /2 0 = 0 .1 . one p erso n had to w ait 5 . b F o r so m e reaso n . 4 . o r th ere m ay have been an u n u su ally larg e n u m b e r o f c u sto m e rs in the store.4 0 0 . A ty p ical h isto g ram . g e n e ra te d by M i n i í a b is sh o w n on th e n e x t p ag e. ^ b S in ce 2 o f the 2 0 p lay ers h av e av e ra g es a b o v e 0 .

w ith a larg e p e a k in the m iddle. 1. w ith tw o o u tliers ._________________ Vetoes 1.47 A n sw e rs w ill vary fro m stu d en t to stu d e n t. f If an an im al h as o n e tick . T h ere w ill be som e “0 ”s w ith u n in fected rab b its. H en ee. S ince th ere are several v ery larg e States (in p o p u la tio n ) in the U n ite d S tates. it is lik ely th at all th e sh e lls w ill be b ro k en . 5 . c N o t likely to be skew ed. an d th en a la rg e r n u m b e r o f larg e valúes. T h e d istrib u tio n is in d eed sk ew ed to the rig h t. a few larg e n u m b e r o f b ro k en sh ells is p o ssib le. T he d istrib u tio n w ill n o t be sy m m etric. T h e stu d en ts sh o u ld notice th at the d istrib u tio n is sk ew ed to th e rig h t w ith a few p re sid e n ts (T ru m an . 7 | 8 9 8 | 0 1 7 9| 0 1 2 4 4 5 6 6 6 8 8 101 1 7 9 11 | 2 T h e d isp lay is fairly m o u n d -sh a p e d . T h e m o st o b v io u s ch o ice is to use the ten s d ig it as th e stem and the o n es d ig it a s the leaf.a T h e d istrib u tio n o f n o n -se c u re d loan sizes m ig h t be sk e w e d (a few ex trem ely larg e lo an s are p o ssib le). and F. 1. b T h e d istrib u tio n o f sec u re d lo an siz es is n o t lik ely to co n ta in u n u su ally larg e o r sm all valúes. e I f a p ack ag e is d ro p p e d .43 a S tem an d le a f d isp la y s m ay v ary fro m stu d en t to stu d en t. R o o sev elt) e a stin g an u n u su ally larg e n u m b e r o f vetoes. d N o t likely to be skew ed. b -c H isto g ram s w ill v ary fro m stu d e n t to stu d en t.C a lifo rn ia and N ew Y ork. T h e d istrib u tio n w ill be skew ed. b u l sh o u ld rese m b le the h isto g ram g en erated b y M i n i t a b in the figure b elo w . C le v e la n d .D . he is lik ely to have m ore th an on e. the d istrib u tio n sh o u ld be sk ew ed to the right.51 a T h e p o p u la r v o te w ith in e a c h state sh o u ld vary d e p e n d in g on th e size o f the state.

at w h ich tim e the p erc e n ta g e s re v erse d th em selv es d ram atica lly . p ro b ab ly due to the fact th at the sa m p le s w ere c o lle c te d at d ifferen t lo catio n s. 1.c o m ch a rt is n o t an actu a l tim e line. c T h e p erce n ta g e o f p eo p le w ho w ere n o t w o rrie d w as risin g at a slo w rate until S e p te m b e r 11.59 a -b A n sw e rs w ill vary.55 a-b A n sw ers w ill vary fro m stu d e n t to student. 6 . so t h a tth e tim e fram e in w h ich th ese c h a n g e s o c c u r m ay be d isto rted . N o tic e the g a p s an d the b im o d al n atu re o f th e h isto g ram .O 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 Popubr Vote 1. d T h e h o rizo n ta l ax is o n the w w w . T h e line c h art sh o u ld lo o k sim ila r to the o n e sh o w n b elo w . A ty p ical h isto g ram is sh o w n b elo w . 2 0 0 1 .g a llu p .

63 a -b T h e M i n i t a b stem a n d le a f p lo t is sh o w n b elo w . T h e d istrib u tio n is slig h tly sk ew ed to th e left. Stem-and-Leaf Display: Percent Stem-and-leaf of Percent Leaf Unit = 1.0 1 2 3 4 6 12 20 (11) 20 12 4 1 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 N =51 7 8 0 3 45 666777 88888999 00000001111 22222333 44444555 677 9 7 .1.

c G e o rg ia (7 . 1. b 1. there a re no outliers.8 has so m e so rt o f illn ess co m in g on? c T h e v alu é 9 8 .6 ° is slig h tly to the rig h t o f center.Y ah o o !. in d icatin g th at th e d istrib u tio n is p ro b a b ly sk ew ed to the right. T im e W a rn e r and M S N -M icro so ft.5 ) and A rk a n sas (8 . 1.69 a T h e d istrib u tio n is so m e w h a t m o u n d -sh a p e d (as m u ch as a sm all set c a n be). b u t th ey m ay n o t be “o u tlie rs” in the sen se th at th ey lie fa r aw ay fro m the rest o f the m e a su re m e n ts in the d a ta set.8°. in the c la ss w ith m id p o in t at 100.0 ) have g aso lin e tax es th a t a re so m e w h a t sm a lle r than m o st. .2 a T h e re a re a few e x tre m ely large n u m b ers.73 2 /1 0 = 0. P e rh a p s the perso n w hose tem p e ra tu re w as 1 0 0 . b-c T h e d istrib u tio n is in d eed sk ew ed right w ith three p o ssib le o u tlie rs . w ith o n e unusual m e a su re m e n t.67 a-b T h e d istrib u tio n is a p p ro x im a tely m o u n d -sh ap ed .

5 a A lth o u g h th ere m ay be a few h o u se h o ld s w h o o w n m o re th an one D V D p lay er. or _ = ^ = 0 + 5 + 1+ U 3 = m = 2 x ~ n 5 ~ 5 ~ T o c a lc ú la te the m ed ian . S in ce th ere are tw o “ 1”s. the o b se rv a tio n s are first ran k ed fro m sm a lle st to largest: 0. b T h e m ean is th e su m o f the m e a su re m e n ts d iv id ed b y the n u m b e r o f m e a su rem en ts.T h e m o d e is the m e asu re m e n t o c c u rrin g m o st freq u en tly .+ .2: Describing Data with Numerical Measures 2. 1. 1. a 27 n 25 25 T o c a lc ú late the m ed ian . T h en sin ce n = 25 .1 a T h e d o tp lo t sho w n b elo w p lo ts the five m e a su re m e n ts a lo n g the h o riz o n tal axis. w e g u ess th at the m o d e is 1 . and the m ed ian is th e 3rd ran k ed m e a su re m e n t. T h e d istrib u tio n sh o u ld be slig h tly sk ew ed to th e right. b Since m o st h o u se h o ld s w ill h av e o n ly o n e D V D p la y e r. the o b se rv a tio n s are first ra n k ed fro m sm a lle st to largest: T h e re are six Os. T he a p p ro x im ate ce n te r o f the d a ta a p p e a rs to be a ro u n d 1 . and tw o 3s. 2. S in ce the m e d ia n and m o d e are to the left o f th e m ean. the p o sitio n o f 9 . T h en since n = 5 . th írteen ls . or m ode = 1.th e p o sitio n o f th e m ed ian is 0 .5 (n + l) = 3 . o r m = 1 . 5. fo u r 2s. 3. th e m a jo rity sh o u ld o w n e ith e r 0 o r 1. c T h e three m easu res in p art b are lo cated o n the d o tp lo t. the co rre sp o n d in g d o ts are p lac e d one abo ve the o th er. w e co n c lu d e th a t th e m e asu re m e n ts are sk ew ed to the right. c T h e m ean is Z jL = 1 + 0 + .

1 6 1.T ) 2 .96 1. n -1 c 4 11.36 6.1 . N o tic e th at th e m ean falls slig h tly to the rig h t o f the m ed ian an d m o d e . the m ed ian salary w o u ld be a b e tte r m easu re o f c e n te r th an the m ean.4 ): .0 . ( x ¡ .96 3 5 0 . in d ic a tin g th at th e m e a su re m e n ts are slig h tly sk ew ed to the right. w ith th e th ree m easu res su p e rim p o se d . .x (* /-* ) 2 .2 0 1 1 Then^ j 3 _ ! ( * .4 . w h ich is the 13th ran k ed m ea su re m en t.6 7 3 C alcú late ' Z x f = 2 2 + 1 2 + --.2 A ) 2 -i------H 5 .76 T otal 0 1 1 .4 0 . (*. d T h e relativ e freq u e n cy h isto g ram is sh o w n b elo w .1 . . X¡ x¡ .9 1 m edian m ean m o d e. T h en 10 .+ 5 2 = 4 0 . or m ode = 1. 0 2 .2 . o r m = 1 . T h e m o d e is the m ea su rem e n t o c c u rrin g m o st freq u en tly .th e m ed ia n is 0 . 2 3 VCRs T h e d istrib u tio n o f sp o rts sa la rie s w ill be sk ew ed to the rig h t. H en ee.x ) and th e ir sq u a res.? ) • _ ( 2 .6 2 .6 0.5 (n + 1 ) = 13.20 . „ 4 T h e sam p le sta n d a rd d ev ia tio n is the p o sitiv e sq u are ro o t o f the v arian c e or s = V 7 = V l 8 = 1 .4 . b e c a u se o f the v ery h igh salarie s o f so m e sp o rts fig u res. n b 5 C reate a tab le o f d iffe re n c e s.

_

n
n- 1

1 - = —
4

4

= 2.8 a n d s = y f ? = - J l .8 = 1.673 .

T h e resu lts o f p arts a and b are identical.
2.17

a

T h e ran g e is R = 2 .3 9 - 1 .2 8 = 1 .1 1 .

b

C a lcú late I *,2 = 1,282 + 2 .3 9 2 + ••• + 1 . 5 l 2 = 15.415 . T h en
^ , ( I x )2
(8 .5 6 )2
Z*?-15.451 —-— —1—
7. n?8
— ---------"— = ------------------- 5— = ^ 6 0 2 8 _ 1 9 0 0 7
n —1
4
4

an d 5 = 7 7 = V. 19007 = .436
c

T h e ran g e, R = 1 .1 1 , is 1 .1 1/.436 = 2.5 stan d ard d ev iatio n s.
T h e range o f the d a ta is R = 6 - 1 = 5 a n d the ra n g e ap p ro x im a tio n w ith n = 10 is

2 .1 9

s ~ — = 1.67
3
T h e stan d a rd d ev iatio n o f the sam p le is

U

-

& * ,f
n

(3 2 )
130 —

_

= 7 3 .0 6 6 7 = 1 .7 5 1
n- 1
w h ic h is v ery c ió se to the estim ate fo r p art a.
c -e F ro m the d o tp lo t on the next p ag e , y o u c a n see th a t th e d a ta set is n o t m o u n d sh ap ed . H enee y o u can use T c h e b y s h e ff s T h e o re m , b u t n o t the E m p iric a l R u le to
d e scrib e the data.
=V 7 =

2.21

a

T h e interv al from 4 0 to 6 0 rep re se n ts f i ± g = 5 0 ± 10. S in ce the d istrib u tio n is

re la tiv e ly m o u n d -sh ap e d , the p ro p o rtio n o f m e a su re m e n ts b e tw een 4 0 a n d 6 0 is 6 8 %
acc o rd in g to the E m p irical R ule and is sh o w n on th e next page
11

b

A gain, u sin g the E m p iric a l R ule, the in terv al / / ± 2 o = 5 0 ± 2(10) o r b e tw een 30

a n d 7 0 c o n tain s ap p ro x im ate ly 9 5 % o f the m e asu rem en ts.
c
R efer to the figure below .

S ince a p p ro x im ate ly 6 8 % o f the m easu re m e n ts are b e tw een 4 0 a n d 60, the sy m m etry
o f the d is trib u tio n im p lies th a t 34% o f the m e a su rem en ts are b e tw e e n 5 0 a n d 60.
S im ilarly , sin ce 9 5 % o f the m easu re m e n ts are b e tw een 3 0 a n d 70, a p p ro x im ately
4 7 .5 % are b etw een 3 0 and 50. T h u s, the p ro p o rtio n o f m e asu re m e n ts b e tw e e n 3 0 and
6 0 is
0 .3 4 + 0 .4 7 5 = 0 .8 1 5
d
F ro m the fig u re in p art a , the p ro p o rtio n o f the m e a su re m e n ts b e tw een 5 0 an d 60
is 0 .3 4 an d the p ro p o rtio n o f the m easu re m e n ts w h ich are g re a te r th an 5 0 is 0.50.
T h e re fo re , the p ro p o rtio n th at are g rea te r than 6 0 m u st be
0 . 5 - 0 . 3 4 = 0.16
2 .2 5
A cco rd in g to the E m p irical R u le, if a d istrib u tio n o f m e a su re m e n ts is ap p ro x im a te ly
m o u n d -sh ap ed .
12

a
ap p ro x im a te ly 6 8 % o r 0 .6 8 o f the m easu re m e n ts fall in the interval
H ± o = 1 2 ± 2 .3 o r 9.7 to 14.3
b
ap p ro x im a te ly 9 5 % o r 0 .9 5 o f the m e a su rem en ts fall in the interval
/ / ± 2 a = 12 ± 4 .6 o r 7 .4 to 16.6
c
ap p ro x im a te ly 9 9 .7 % o r 0 .9 9 7 o f the m easu re m e n ts fall in the interval
/y ± 3< r = 1 2 ± 6 .9 o r5 .1 to 18.9
T h e re fo re , ap p ro x im a te ly 0 .3 % o r 0 .0 0 3 w ill fall o u tsid e this interval.
2.31

a
------------C la ss i

W e ch o o se to use 12 c la sse s o f len g th 1.0. T h e tally and the relativ e freq u en cy
C la ss B o u n d a r ie s

1
2

3
4
5
6

7

T ally
1

1

1

1

5

111

3

1/70
1/70
3 /70

4 to <
5 to <
6 to <
7 to <
8 to <

6

11111

7

11111

5
5

5 /70
5 /70

8

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 11

12

9

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 111

18
15

12/70
18/70

8

9 to < 10

11111 11111 11111

9

1 0 to < 11

11111 1

10

11 to < 12

111

11

12 to < 13
13 to < 14

12

R ela tiv e fr e q u e n c y ,///!

fi

2 to < 3
3 to < 4

15/70
6 /70
3 /70

6

3

1

0

0

1

1/70

20/70

L
«

■E

10/70

1

5

10

15

TRH3

b

V* y
1
C a lc ú la te n = 70, X x = 5 4 1 and X x f = 4 4 5 3 . T h en x = — — = ------ = 7 .7 2 9 is
n
70

an e stím ate o f / / .
c

T h e sam p le sta n d a rd d ev ia tio n is

13

71 at le a st 0 .774 to 13. 2/.9 5 3 7 . T ± ^ f o r k = 1.451 . 2 .9398 = 1.0 . 5 6 and I *. T c h e b y s h e ff s T h e o re m is 14 . b-c T h e three in terv als x ± k s fo r k = 1.512 = 1 5 .9 6 at least 0 .7 4 4 to 9.3 are c a lc u la te d b elo w .7 5 -0 .0 . w h ich is v ery ció se to o u r e stím a te in p a rt a.6 8 2 7 .= 7 . 5 = 1.985 \ 69 T h e th ree in terv als.U .5 = . c a lc ú la te ' L x if = 0(10) + 1 (5 ) H------1-10(1) = 51 X * .3 are ca lc u la te d in th e tab le a lo n g w ith the actual p ro p o rtio n o f m e a su re m e n ts fa llin g in th e in terv als.2 = 1.8 9 .11 so th a t s .2 * (8.1 .7 2 9 ± 3 .7 2 9 ± 5 .7 5 9 to 11. T h e ta b le sh o w s the actu al p erce n ta g e o f m easu re m e n ts fallin g in a p a rtic u la r in terv al as w ell as the p ercen tag e p re d ic te d by T c h e b y sh e ff’s T h e o re m a n d the E m p iric a l R u le.L n. as in d icated by the m o u n d -sh a p e o f the h isto g ram in p a rt a.1 7 .7 2 9 ± 1 .2. ______________________________________________________________ k 2.3 9 2 + --.4 1 5 .9 8 5 5 .76028 4 4 = .8 7 3 and s = y ¡ l . w e calc u la te d X * .1 — = \ -------------.9 9 7 a C a lcú la te R = 2 .9 5 5 3 .9 7 0 6 7 /7 0 = 0 .3 9 a T h e d a ta in this ex ercise have b ee n arran g e d in a fre q u en cy table.35 x±ks Interval F ractio n in Interval T c h e b y sh e ff E m p irical R ule 1 7 .1 .873 = 2 . = 0 2(10) + 12( 5 ) h------1-10 2 (1) = 2 93 T hen I = I iA n U f - = 51=204 25 (Z xií)2 293- (5 1 )1 s~ = n.2 8 = 1.í 541): J =V \ n.699 1.00 at le ast 0 . N o te that the E m p iric a l R u le sh o u ld be fairly accu rate.282 + 2 .^ — = V 3.11 /2 .684 7 0 /7 0 = 1.+ 1.714 5 0 /7 0 = 0.4 3 6 .R / 2 .3 9 .1 24 ^ .8 0 6 . 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Xi 1 0 5 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 fi U sin g the freq u en cy tab le and the g ro u p e d fo rm u las. b In E x ercise 2 . 56)" 15. T h en ■> ( Z I xf-± .2 . = 8 .1 9007 an d 5 = V 7 = V -19007 = .444 .

8 4 6 2 1/25 = 0 . T h e p o sitio n s o f th e q u a rtile s are 0 . an d b elow 1.8 4 at least 0 2 2 .6 .35 . 10 .95 3 2 . the p o sitio n o f th e m e d ia n is 0 .56.4 .5 = 4.5 1 an d 1.5.5 1.76.23.2 5 ( 6 ) = 1.58 an d . 9.5 .2 5 Q. Q y = 9.2 .0 4 ± 2 .5 /0 /? = 9 + 6.0 5 ) = . T h e u p p e r w h isk er co n n ec ts the box to the la rg e st v alu é th a t is n o t an o u tlie r o r x = 1 0 .2 5 (n + l) = 3.7 5 (n + l) = 10. 10.8 .5 and 0 .6 8 1 2 . .2 5 (.5(13 + 1 ) = 7 and m = 6 . 3 . .41. 8 .0 . .1 .5 (« + 1 ) = 0.00 at least 0. 8. and I Q R = 9 . 1. T h en find the q u artiles by in terp o latio n . S o rted D a ta Set Qi P o sitio n o f A bove Q. 3.0 4 ± 5 . 15 . 2 .75 = -2 .30 an d .1.41 x±ks In terv al F rac tio n in In terv al T c h e b y sh e ff E m p irical R ule = 0 . 9.2 5 (1 2 ) = 3 N one 1.2.7.6.58. 22 F o r « = 1 3 .4. 2. F in d the p o sitio n s o f the q u artiles. 8 .9. + 1 . .89 . .5.7 5 (9 ) = 6.75 = 0.75 = 15.sa tisficd an d th e a p p ro x im a tio n g iv en b y the E m p irica l R ule are fairly ció se fo r k = 2 an d k = 3 .30 + .7 6 6 to 4 .6 5 2 2 3 /2 5 = 0 .5 2 .58 + .6 . .1 .2 5 (9 ) = 2.1 8 ) = .3 7 8 to 10.25 . a n d the m ea su re m e n ts th a t are ju s t ab o v e and b e lo w those p o sitio n s.6 1 2 . 6 . 5 I Q R = 4.76 . . w hich h ap p en s to be the m ín im u m valu é.418 . T h e lo w e r w h isk e r co n n e c ts th e b o x to the sm allest valué th at is n o t an o u tlier.458 2 5 /2 5 = 1. 7 . 6 . 2 .30. T h e b o x p lo t is show n b elow .7 5 (6 ) = 4.7 5 (. k 2.5 .8 . 1.35.80 P o sitio n o f Q 3 q3 2 an d 2 .2 2. 5 . 8 .4 5 A b o v e an d b elow T h e o rd e re d d a ta are: 2.5 . . 9 .0 4 + 8. 3.9 9 7 T h e d ata h av e alre a d y b e e n so rte d . 1. x = 2 .75 .7150 .8.75 T h e valu é x = 2 2 lies o u tsid e th e u p p e r fen ce and is an outlier.0 .5 7 2 to 7 .7 5 (1 2 ) = 9 N one 8.9 .3 .8 0 6 .9 2 at least 0. T h e l owe r a n d u p p e r f e n c e s are: Qx . so that Q¡ = 4.3125 7.25 0.

24. 26 M cN a b b : 9. = 1 4 + 0 .375 F o r D o n o v an M cN a b b . = 15 + 0 . 13. + 1 .0 . T h e n the l o w e r a n d u p p e r f e n c e s are: 0 . . 0 . 5 / 0 / ? = 2 3 + 1 2 .1 2 .5 (n + 1 ) = 9. 14. m = (18 + 1 8 ) / 2 = 18 . 18. 23.7 5 an d 0 .75 and 0 3 = 23 + 0 .7 5 ( 1 5 . 5 .h m easu rem en ts. T h en the fiv e -n u m b e r su m m arie s are M in F av re M cN abb b 10 9 Q. 15.1 5 = 6 .1 .1 4 ) = 14. T h e n th e l o w e r a n d u p p e r f e n e e s are: 0 . 21.2 3 ) = 2 3 .5 a n d the p o sitio n s o f the q u a rtiles are 0 .5 I QR = 21 + 9 = 30 T h e re are no o u tlie rs. 19.. calc ú late I Q R = 0 . 25. T h e so rte d m ea su re m e n ts are sh o w n below .2 5 (n + 1) = 4 . 27 F o r B re tt F av re. 22. 17. + 1 . 21. m = (21 + 2 2 ) / 2 = 2 1 .2 .2 5 ( 2 3 . 14. F or D o n o v an M cN ab b .7 5 (n + l) = 14. 11.7 5 = 8.375 0 . = 2 1 .1 4 .5 /0 /? = 1 5 -9 = 6 0 .2 1 ) = 2 1 . 12. 22. 16. 10. 0 . 21. 18. 25. F avre: 10. T h e lo w er q u a rtile is Va the w ay b e tw een the 4 lh an d 5 111 m easu rem e n ts an d th e u p p e r q u artile is Va th e w ay b etw een the 14Ih and 15. 16 .4 9 a F o r n = 18 .25 . calc ú late I Q R = 0 . 15.3 7 5 = 2. 16. and the box p lo ts are sh o w n on th e n ex t p ag e. 18.75 .1 .3 7 5 = 3 5 .5I Q R = 14. 2 3 . 18. 19. = 2 3 . .1 5 ) = 15 and 0 3 = 2 1 + 0 .2 5 ( 2 1 . 15.25 . .75 15 M edian 21. the p o sitio n o f the m edian is 0 .5 18 03 23 21 M ax 26 27 F o r B re tt F av re. 23.7 5 ( 1 5 . 23. 15. 18.0 . 23.

<2.25.6 = 18 Q3 + X.25 = 2.5(14 + 1) = 7. .375 = 21. . + 1 .55 24 26 27 T h e o rd e re d G en eric 25 25 26 26 28 28 sets are sh o w n b elow : 25 26 28 26 27 22 25 28 24 25 28 S u n m a id 24 24 27 28 29 30 24 28 F o r n = 1 4 . and I Q R = 27.5 and the p o sitio n s o f the q u a rtile s are 0 .5 I Q R = 27. .375 = 30. w h ile the D o n o v an d istrib u tio n is ro u g h ly sy m m e tric .2 5 (n + 1 ) = 3.53 A n sw e rs w ill vary.24 = 4 G en eric: Lower and u p p e r f e n c e s are: <2.25 + 3.75 a n d 0 . .625 Q.25 S u n m a id : m = 26. 5 I Q R = 2 4 .3. Qx= 25. T h e stu d en t sh o u ld no tice the o u tliers in the fem ale g ro u p . (2. T h e F av re d istrib u tio n is sk ew ed left. T he M cN a b b d istrib u tio n is slig h tly m o re v ariab le .1 5 I Q R = 25 . a n d I Q R = 28 . so that G en eric: m = 26. th at the m ed ian fem ale te m p e ra tu re is h ig h e r th an th e m ed ian m ale tem p eratu re.25 .7 5 (n + 1 ) = 11. T h ere are no o u tliers.5 (/i + l) = 0. Qy = 27. the p o sitio n o f the m e d ia n is 0 . F av re h as a h ig h e r m ed ian n u m b e r o f co m p le te d passes. p ro b ab ly m o u n d -sh ap ed . = 28.25 . = 24.c A n sw e rs w ill vary.5IQR = 28 + 6 = 34 T h e b o x p lo ts are sh ow n o n the next page.625 S u n m a id : Lower and u p p e r f e n c e s are: Q .1 . 17 .

2 1.1---------.4 2.1 .5 an d the p o sitio n s o f the lo w er a n d u p p e r q u a rtile s are 0.3 8.1 4.1----------1---------.3 4.3 2 5 .9 4.2 0.5 14.7 18.8 6. 0 .5 3.3 .3 5 .1 6. sin ce the n u m b e r o f ra isin s is m o re v a riab le for the S u n m aid b ran d .1 + 0 .4 8.7 5 ( 2 .8 2 5 .6 5. T he d istrib u tio n is sk ew ed to the right.5 (n + 1 ) = 25.1 + 6 .7 3.2 0.4 1.4 2. H o w ev er.9 7.0 18.4 7.5 9 T h e o rd ere d d ata are show n below .6 6.3 S ince n = 5 0 .3 2 5 = 10.3 1. the a v e ra g e size o f th e ra isin s is ro u g h ly the sam e fo r the tw o b ran d s.2 8.6 ) / 2 = 6. 2 . 25(n + 1 ) = 12. T h en 1QR = 1 2 .7 5 = .6 ) = 1 2 .1----------1---------.575 an d the b o x p lo t is sh o w n on the n ex t page.6 1. T h ere is o n e o u tlie r.1 24.75 a n d 0. 1 5 ( n + 1 ) = 3 8 . 5 / 0 / ? = 12. . x = 32.6 + 0 .121 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Raisins d I f th e b o x es are n o t b ein g u n d erfilled .4 5.5 .2 23.0 26.3 0.0 18.0 2.1 3 . = 1 2 .1 ) = 2 .4 2 5 - 0 . T h e ind iv id u al sizes o f th e g e n eric ra isin s are n o t as v ariab le.1 14. + 1 .2 .3 3. T h en m = (6. 18 .4 .4 1.1 2 .3 2 5 and <2.6 13.1---------. 5 / 0 / ? = 2 .1--------.4 19.8 2 5 .6 9.1 2.1 5 . the p o sitio n o f the m edian is 0 .6 2.2 8. = 2.0 1. T h e l o w e r a n d u pp e r f e n e e s are: 0 .2 5 .825 + 15. 0.2 5 (1 3 .7 32.9 11.Sunmaid - Generic n ----------1---------.0 9.5 .2 .7 3.7 9.4 12.75 = 2 8 .7 16. it w o u ld a p p e a r th at som e o f th e S u n m a id ra isin s are larg e w hile o th ers are sm all.

the ran g e o f the m e asu rem en ts sh o u ld be a p p ro x im a te ly 6 (7 .4 9 8 5 = .4 and 2 2 . s 2 = 4 9 0 0 T h e stan d ard d e v ia tio n o f th ese sc o res is th en 70. T he total fractio n o f tre e s w ith d ia m e te rs b e tw een 8.89 I f the d istrib u tio n o f sc o re s is m o u n d -sh ap e d .2 . so th at (7 = 6 0 0 /6 = 1 0 0 .4 is th ree sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n s ab o v e the m ean .4 lies tw o sta n d a rd d ev ia tio n s b elo w the m ean .4 and 14 is h a lf o f 0 . A p p ro x im a te ly 9 5 % o f the sco res w o u ld lie in the interv al 4 6 0 to 740. In this ca se .9735 19 .7 3 T h e d iam eters o f the trees are a p p ro x im a tely m o u n d -sh a p ed w ith m ean 14 and stan d ard d ev iatio n 2 .75 3 600 ± 2 1 0 3 9 0 to 810 a t least 0.4 is h a lf o f 0 .6 9 If the d istrib u tio n is m o u n d -sh a p e d . th en alm o st all o f the m easu rem e n ts w ill fall in the in terv al j u ± 3 (7 .4 is 0. a T h e valué x = 8.9 9 7 o r 0 .6 3 T h e fo llo w in g in fo rm atio n is av ailab le: n = 4 0 0 . w h ile the valué x = 22 . and co n clu d e that ap p ro x im a tely 6 8 % o f the sco res w o u ld lie in the interv al 5 3 0 to 6 7 0 (w hich is x ± 5 ). The fractio n o f trees w ith d ia m e te rs b e tw een 8. x = 600. U se the E m p irical R ule. w h ich is an in terv al 6 (7 in length.8 .2 0 0 = 6 0 0 .4 9 8 5 . T h at is. 2 .4 7 5 + 0 . the ra n g e is 8 0 0 . 2 . w e use the E m p iric al R ule. and the resu lts o f T c h c b y s h e ff s T h e o re m follow : k x±ks Interval T c h e b y sh e ff 1 600 ± 7 0 5 3 0 to 6 7 0 at least 0 2 6 0 0 ± 140 4 6 0 to 7 4 0 at least 0.9 5 o r 0 .4 7 5 . w hile the fractio n o f trees w ith d ia m e te rs b e tw een 14 and 22.

3 4 = . the d istrib u tio n is sk e w e d to the right.2 5 . T h ere are no o u tliers and the d a ta is sk ew ed to the right. T c h e b y s h e ff s T h eo rem States that th is fractio n w ill be at least 3á o r 75% .1 . the p o sitio n s o f Q¡ and 0 3 are .. + 1 .0 . n 50 b T h e p o sitio n o f the m ed ian is . the fractio n o f trees w ith d ia m e te rs b e tw e e n 14 a n d 16.3 4 .5 .8 is h a lf o f 0. S in ce n = 5 0 .3 4 = 0 .1 2 5 = -2 4 .16 2.81 a y x 418 C alcú late n = 50. .7 7 a T h e p ercen ta g e o f co lle g e s th at have b e tw e en 145 an d 2 0 5 te a c h e rs c o rre sp o n d s to the fraction o f m e a su rem en ts e x p ected to lie w ith in tw o sta n d ard d e v ia tio n s o f the m ean . so that x = — — = -----.3 4 .7 5 = 16.5 + 2 5 . 5 / 0 / ? = . U sin g the E m p irical R ule.7 5 .5 I QR = 17.7 5 .6 8 o r 0 . 0 3 = 1 7 + .1 6 . 20 .5 .2 5 ( 1 9 . th e fractio n o f area ly in g b etw een 175 and 190 is 0 .= 8 .0 ) = 1 2 .8 lies one stan d ard d e v iatio n a b o v e the m ean .7 5 (5 1 ) = 3 8 .5(n +1) = 25. an d the fractio n o f trees w ith d iam eters g re a ter than 16. R eferrin g to the n orm al d istrib u tio n sh o w n b elo w .3 6 .75 .5 a n d m = (4 + 4 )/2 = 4.5 . b If th e p o p u latio n is n o rm ally d istrib u te d .75 and . the E m p iric a l R u le is a p p ro p ria te and the d e sire d fractio n is calc u la te d . Z x = 41 8 . = 0 + 0 .7 5 ( 1 .125 = 42. T h e l o w e r a n d u p p e r f e n e e s are: _ 0 . 2.b T h e valué x = 16. resp ectiv e ly T h en 0 .3 7 5 0 .2 5 (5 1 ) = 12.0 .1 7 ) = 17. c d S in ce the m ean is larg er th an the m ed ian .5 and I Q R = 1 7 .8 is 0 . so th at the fractio n o f co lle g es m o re than 190 teac h ers is 0.2 5 .6 2 5 an d the box p lo t is sh o w n on the n ex t p ag e.

91 T h e box p lo t sh o w s a d istrib u tio n th at is sk ew ed to the left. T h e m ed ian d o e s n o t c h a n g e until the g reen d o t is sm a lle r th an x = 1 0 . so d o e s the m ean. d T h e larg est an d sm a lle st p o ssib le v alú es fo r the m edian are 5 < m < 10.87 a -b c A s the valu é o f x g e ts sm a lle r. at w hich p o in t th e g reen d o t b ec o m e s the m ed ian . 2.2. 21 . b u t w ith o n e o u tlie r to the rig h t o f the o th e r o b se rv a tio n s ( x = 5 2 0 ).

-----.■*>-. .. M en W o m en G ro u p 1 23% 8% G ro u p 2 3 1% 57% G roup 3 46% 35% T otal 100% 100% b-c T h e sid e-b y -sid e an d stac k ed b a r c h a rts in the n ex t tw o fig u res m easu re the freq u en cy o f o c c u rre n c e fo r e a c h o f th e th ree g ro u p s. ----.1 a T h e sid e-b y -sid e pie ch a rts are c o n stru cte d as in C h a p te r 1 for each o f the tw o g ro u p s (m en and w o m e n ) a n d a re d isp la y ed b elo w u sin g the p e rc e n ta g e s sh o w n in the tab le below ... 7---------.i '' “——' ' >* 60 Gender Male Female Group 1 Male Female Group 2 23 Male Female Group 3 .y--'.~~. A se p ára te b ar (o r p o rtio n o f a b a r) is used for m en and w o m en ..3: Describing Bivariate Data 3. — .

T h e sa m p le is th e se t o f re sp o n se s g e n e ra ted fo r the 198 p a ren ts and 2 0 0 ch ild re n in th e su rv ey . fo r each p e rso n in te rv ie w e d . to o m u ch . b T h e d a ta c a n be c o n sid ered b iv a ria te if. th e b a r ch a rts a re usefu l in re ta in in g the actu al freq u e n c ies o f o ccu rren c e in each g ro u p . w h ich is lost in the pie chart. c T h e e n try in a cell rep re se n ts the n u m b er o f p e o p le w h o fell in to th at re la tio n sh ip -o p in io n cate g o ry . S in ce th e m e a su re m e n ts are not n u m erical in n atu re. n o t e n o u g h . d A pie ch a rt is c rea te d fo r b oth the “p a re n t” a n d the “c h ild re n ” cate g o rie s. 3 . sin ce the u n eq u a l n u m b e r o f m en and w om en ten d to c o n fu se the in terp re ta tio n o f the b a r ch arts. T he size o f each sec to r angle is p ro p o rtio n a l to the fractio n o f m e a su re m e n ts fallin g into . H o w e v er. th e v aria b les are qu alitativ e.d T h e d ifferen c es in the p ro p o rtio n s o f m en an d w o m en in th e th ree g ro u p s is m ost g ra p h ic a lly p o rtra y e d by the p ie c h arts. w e reco rd the p e rs o n ’s re la tio n sh ip (P aren t o r C h ild ) and th e ir re sp o n se to th e q u e stio n (ju st the rig h t am o u n t.5 a T h e p o p u la tio n o f in te re st is the p o p u latio n o f re sp o n se s to th e q u e stio n a b o u t free tim e fo r all p aren ts a n d ch ild re n in the U n ite d S tates. d o n ’t k n o w ).

y. b u t sin ce the h eig h t o f the b ar rc p re se n ts the fre q u e n e y o f o c c u rre n c e (an d h en ee is tied to the sam p le size).3 T h en the co v a ria n c e is 153J m s„ = * * ± ^---------= -----------------£-------= -1 . th is ty p e o f c h a rt w o u ld be m isle a d in g . th at is. su m s o f sq u ares and su m o f c ro ss p ro d u c ís fo r the p airs {xt . T h e c o rre c t a n sw ers are show n in the table.9 9 . = 2 1 . y d ecreases.6 Z y = 8 12 sy = 2 2 > = 2 0 C o r r e la tio n C o e ffíc ie n t r = _2 = —1 1 (2 ) 3 .9 5 n . c U se y o u r sc ien tific c a lc u la to r to c a lc ú late the su m s.1 5 25 . I y . I y .) . I * . 3 . I * .9 F o llo w the in stru c tio n s in th e M y P e rso n al T ra in e r sectio n . as x increase. T h e c o m p a ra tiv e pie c h a rts are the best choice.1 3 a T h e sc a tte rp lo t is sh o w n b elo w . y . I * 2 = 9 1 .3 . X y xy C a lcú la te: 1 6 6 n = 3 3 2 6 C o v a ria n ce 2 0 .e E ith e r stack ed o r c o m p a rativ e b a r ch a rts c o u ld be u sed . b T h ere ap p ea rs to be a n eg ativ e re la tio n sh ip b e tw een x and y.2 = 1 0 3 .2 ) s *y 2 3 2 Sx = 1 4 2 I * .( 6 ) ( . = 2 4 . = 7 5 .

9 9 3 .5 8 5 .0 7 1 4 2 9 n.l 5 <2 4 -3 )2 6 _ = 1 .8708X1.0559) T h is valu é o f r in d icates a stro n g n eg ativ e re la tio n sh ip b etw ee n x a n d y. T h e re is a slig h t p o sitiv e tre n d b e tw e e n p rean d p o st-te st sco res.9 8 7 (1.b T h e sc a tte rp lo t is show n b elo w . I x¡ = 6 77.0 5 5 9 T h e c o rre la tio n co effic ie n t is s r = — 5I5> —1 95 = -----------. c C alcú late n = 7. I y.an d th e sa m p le sta n d ard d e v ia tio n s are s . T h en th e co v a ria n c e is 5n = * — = 7 8 .1 7 a . Z x f = 6 5 . co n firm in g the in terp re ta tio n o f the scatterp lo t.0 5 6 1 3 4 so that r = 0 . T h is is a re la tiv ely stro n g p o sitiv e c o rrela tio n .2 8 6 4 4 7 and s y = 1 1 . 3 . I y? = 7 4 .0 0 6 . = \ \ --------------^— n -1 = — = 1.1 T h e sam p le sta n d a rd d ev ia tio n s are s x = 9 . 26 .7 6 0 . b u t the tren d is no t to o p ro n o u n ced . I x i y i = 7 0 .'-------------= -0 .8708 and 5 ir a no sv = \ f — = ------------l / i . = 719.

p o p u la tio n p e r sq u are m ile. a lo n g w ith the y ear (q u an tita tiv e c o n tin u o u s) a n d the ty p e o f n e tw o rk (q u alitativ e). in w h ic h c a se the d a ta re p re se n ts the en tire p o p u latio n . 27 . q u alitativ e). a -b T h e sc a tte rp lo t is sh o w n o n th e next p ag e. T h ere is a stro n g p o sitiv e lin e ar re la tio n sh ip b etw een x and y. e T h e M arin e C o rp s ten d s to h av e a m u ch h ig h e r p e rc e n ta g e o f y o u n g e r e n listed p e rso n n el. it is p ro b a b ly b a se d o n c e n su s in fo rm atio n .3 . the n u m b e r o f w ired n e tw o rk s d ecreases.5 3 0 = ^ Q 32 ^ (7 1 2 . w h ile 7 -1 0 d a ta p o in ts from to p left to b o tto m rig h t sh o w a n eg ativ e lin ear relatio nsh ip .6 0 3 ) d N u m b e r o f w aste site s is o n ly slig h tly a ffected by th e size o f the state. b T h e p o p u la tio n o f in te re st is the p o p u latio n o f a g es fo r all p e o p le in th e m ilitary . A n a lte rn a tiv e p re se n ta tio n c an b e o b ta in e d by u sin g c o m p ara tiv e p ie c h a rts. w ith th e a g es d iv id ed in to e ig h t a g e g ro u p s. o ffic e r. d T h e e n listed m en ten d to be younger. b -c A n sw e rs w ill vary.33 . 3. o r g eo g ra p h ic al reg ió n in the U n ite d States. A s the n u m b e r o f w ire le ss n e tw o rk s in crease. an d co m p a red fo r th e A rm y v ersu s the M a rin e C o rp s. W e ch o o se to use a line ch a rt fo r the tw o ty p e s o f netw o rk s. A lth o u g h th e so u rce o f th is d a ta is no t g iv en . the fo llo w in g v aria b le s are reco rd ed : the se rv ic e b ran ch (q u a lita tiv e ).8 3 .2 9 a -c N o . 3 . the ag e (q u a n tita tiv e c o n tin u o u s) and the rank (e n liste d vs.37 a T h e 1) n u m b e r o f h o m e n etw o rk s (q u an tita tiv e d isc re te ) h a v e b een m easu red . c A c o m p a ra tiv e (sid e -b y -sid e ) b a r c h a rt has been used. b T h e p attern d esc rib e d in p arts a and c w ould in d ícate a w eak co rrelatio n : r = ^ s xs y . T h e re seem s to b e a larg e c lu ste r o f p o in ts in th e lo w e r le ft h an d c ó rn e r sh o w in g no a p p a re n t re la tio n sh ip b e tw e en the v ariab les.6 0 3 X 9 3 4 6 . S o m e o th e r p o ssib le e x p lan a to ry v a ria b les m ig h t be local en v iro n m e n ta l re g u la tio n s.2 3 a F o r each p e rso n in te rv ie w e d in th e su rv ey .

1 T h e sam p le sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n s are s x = 2 4 . .3 7 1 0 7 7 5 so that r = 0 . I x.8 5 . I >’(2 = 1 9 8 7 6 .010501 a n d $v = 1 3 . b S in ce the c o rre la tio n c o e ffic ien t is so ció se to 1.78571 n —1 T h e sam p le sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n s are sx = 17. X x 2 = 2 9 . the stro n g c o rre la tio n in d icates that th e se co n d an d q u ic k e r test c o u ld be used in p lace o f th e lo n g er test-in te rv ie w . = 5 5 5 . I x . T h e re is a stro n g p o sitiv e trend. = 3 2 1 3 6 T h en the c o v a rian c e is sn = * — ^ = 220. I * . X x 2 = 52270.8 5 4 4 . 28 . ? .9171 so that r = 0 . T h en the c o v a ria n c e is = = 541.9821 a. 2 = 8 .6 1 9 . L y .9 7 1 . = 6 34. ^ = 3 5 . = 4 5 1 . I y. I * . 0 8 2 .4 7 7 0 and s y = 25.4 3 a C a lcú late . T h e co rre la tio n c o e fficie n t sh o u ld be c ió se to r = 0 . = 386. b-c T h e sc a tte rp lo t sh o u ld lo o k lik e the one sh o w n on th e next p a g e . 3 .Test 1 (x) 3 .3 8 a C alcú late n = 8 .2 0 5 . X y f = 4 3 .

29 .

a n d H to rep resen ! the n ickel.4 0 0./ = 1. 2.4: Probability and Probability Distributions 4. £ 6) D: ( E 2) E: ( E 2.8 0 Ei NQH 0.) = j S im ilarly . D. H en ee. 6 />( A) = /> (£ . £4. £3. d T o find the p ro b a b ility o f an e v en t. in d icatin g the th ree c o in s d ra w n . c T h e sim p le e v en ts a lo n g w ith th e ir m o n e ta ry v a lú es follow : E^ N D Q $ 0 .5 a T h e e x p e rim e n t c o n sists o f c h o o sin g th ree c o in s at ra n d o m fro m fo u r.+ . £ ( £ . E b) ( £ 3. U sin g the letters N .. E 4 . d im e .= 4 4 4 4 since e ach sim p le e v en t is eq u a lly likely.= . ) = 1/6 . F o r ex am p le. resp ec tiv e ly .1 a T h is e x p e rim e n t sam p le sp ace fo r this E\ . £5. e x p e rim e n t c o n sists o f th e fo llo w in g sim p le eyents: a 1 £ 4: O b se rv e a 4 a 2 £ 5: O b serv e a 5 a 3 £ 6: O b serv e a 6 T he A th ro u g h F are c o m p o u n d e v e n ts a n d are c o m p o se d in the fo llo w in g ( E 2) ( E 2.. E ^ E 6) F: c o n ta in s no sim p le e v en ts S in ce the sim p le e v e n ts £ . £ . P ( D ) = \ / 6 : P ( B ) = P ( E ) = £ ( £ 2) + £ ( £ 4) + £ ( £ 6) = . a n d h alf-d o lla r. 6 are eq u a lly likely. S in ce e v e n t £ c o n tain s no sim p le e v en ts. T h e o rd er in w h ich th e co in s are d raw n is u n im p o rta n t. ) + P ( £ 4) = . w e sum the p ro b a b ilitie s a ssig n ed to the sim ple ev e n ts in th at even t. ) + P ( E . : (N D Q ) £ 2: (N D H ) £ 3: (N Q H ) £ 4: (D Q H ) b T h e ev en t th at a h a lf-d o lla r is c h o sen is a sso c ia te d w ith th e sim p le e v e n ts £ 2. O b serv e E 2: O b serv e £ 3: O b serv e b E v en ts m anner: A: B: C: c in v o lv e s to ssin g a sin g le die and o b serv in g the o u tco m e. and 6 2 4 2 P ( C ) = — = — . the fo u r p o ssib le sim p le ev en ts are listed below .+ . H en ee. and £4. q u arter.. Q . 4 . P ( £ ) = 0 .65 e 2 NDH 0 .85 £4 D QH 31 . e ac h sim p le e v e n t c o n sists o f a trip let. 3. P lc h o o se a h alf-d o llar] = £ ( £ .

the first stu d en t h as 52 ch o ice s.14 = . B . a cco rd in g to p refe re n ce .1 ) E y : (2 . b S im p le ev en ts in S are in trip let form .2 ) £ 5 : (3 .6 0 0 or £ 5.6 0 0 . 2 to the n ex t m o st d e sirab le .1 .1 . but the se co n d and th ird stu d en ts h av e o n ly 51 and 5 0 ch o ic e s. 14 c F [a d u lt u se s g lasses] = .9 T h e four p o ssib le o u teo m e s o f the e x p e rim e n t. and C. 3(2)(1) a E ach stu d en t has a c h o ic e o f 52 card s.3 ) E 4 : (2 .46 4 . sin ce the c a rd s are re p la c e d b etw een selectio n s. a R [adult ju d g e d to need g lasses] = . b N o w e a c h stu d en t m u st p ic k a d iffe re n t card .1 7 U se th e m n R ule.02 = . 4.2 . 4. y o u use c o mb i n a t i on s a n d C í° = 3! 17! 4 .3 ) £ 6 : (3 . E l : (1 . T h e re a re 10(8) = 8 0 p o ssib le pairs. T h e total n u m b e r o f c o n fig u ra tio n s is fo u n d u sin g th e m n R u le o r th e rule for p erm u tatio n s: m n t = 5 2 (5 1 )(5 0 ) = 1 3 2 .H en ee.3 .2 5 S in ce o rd e r is u n im p o rtan t.3 .21 8' S in ce o rd e r is im p o rtan t. you use p e r m u t a t i o n s and p \ = —j = 8 (7 )(6 )(5 )(4 ) = 6 7 2 0 .1 ) E 2 : (1 . T h e m n R ule allo w s y o u to fin d the to ta l n u m b e r o f co n fig u ra tio n s fo r th ree stu d en ts as 5 2 (5 2 )(5 2 ) = 1 4 0 .6 0 8 .2 9 ^ = 120. there are 52 co n fig u ra tio n s in w h ich all th ree stu d e n ts p ic k the sa m e c ard (o n e fo r 32 . 4. P [to tal am o u n t is $ 0 .2 = — = 1 3 2 . c D efin e the ev en ts D: v ariety A is ran k e d first F: v ariety A is ra n k e d third T hen P ( D ) = /> (£ . or sim p le ev en ts.2 ) H ere 1 is assig n ed to the m o st d e sira b le .1 3 a E x p e r i m e n t : A ta s te r tastes a n d ra n k s th re e v arieties o f tea A .58 b P [a d u lt need s g la sse s b u t d o e s not u se them ] = . T h a t is. ) = 1/6 + 1 /6 = 1/3 4. and have p ro b a b ilitie s as g iv en in the table.44 + . re sp ectiv ely . S in ce th e re are 52 d iffe re n t c a rd s in the deck.44 + . a re re p re sen te d as the c ells o f a 2 x 2 table.6 0 o r m ore] = P ( E 2) + P ( E y) + P ( E 4 ) = 3 /4 . an d 3 to the least d esirable. 49! c L et A be the ev en t o f in terest.2 .) + P ( E 2) = 1/6 + 1 /6 = 1/3 T h e p ro b ab ility th at A is least d e sira b le is £ ( £ ) = P ( E 5) + P Í E .

3 ) ( .7 0 R e fe r to the so lu tio n to E x e rc ise 4.( . T h e n u m b e r o f sa m p les o f 10 se lected from a total o f 9 0 is Cm = 1.58 . E 5.4 In dep en d en t . H enee.3 .05 .= 5 .= — — — = .6 0 8 p o ssib le c o n fig u ra tio n s from p a rt a.3 .4 ) = . H en ee.2 . w h at is the p ro b a h ility th at all five item s are re d ? T h a t is.3 + .( .12 . a 5 = { E l .1 . I f the ja r c o n tain s 5 re d and 3 w hite item s (5 w o m en an d 3 m en ).4 M u tu ally e x clu siv e 0 . E 6} and P ( S ) = 6 /6 = 1 33 .6 0 0 N . T h e p ro b a h ility o f in te re st is P ( A ) = ^ . w ith P { E j ) = 1 /6 . l + .5 = .37 1 40. E 2.2 + .4 . o n ly o n e o f w h ich re su lts in ch o o sin g 5 w o m en .1 ( 5 ) = . n B) P (A |B ) P (A ) P (B ) C o n d itio n s f o r e v e n ts A a n d B . P (fiv e w o m en ) = ^ 4.4 = .33 N o tic e that a sa m p le o f 10 n u rses w ill be the sam e n o m atter in w h ich o rd e r th e y w ere selected . T h e re are n A = 1 3 2 . if th ere is no sex b ias.55 . o u t o f a total o f N = 1 4 0 .6 2 8 8 (1 0 ) . T h e a n sw e rs are g iv en in th e table. E A. 5 .5 In dep en d en t .6 0 8 p o ssib le c o n fig u ra tio n s froTn p art a. o u t o f a total o f N = 1 4 0 . a n d th e p ro b ah ility o f in te re st is ^9 4 3 = ^ = 1 3 2 .1 w h ere the six sim p le e v en ts in the e x p e rim e n t are giv en . E i . 5 ) = .e ach c a rd ). F o llo w th e in stru c tio n s g iv en in the M y P erso n al T ra in e r sectio n .7 2 0 6 4 5 (10 ) 1 0 !8 0 ! 3 .608 90i 2 .= -------------. o rd e r is u n im p o rta n t an d c o m b in a tio n s are used.4 7 . V ’ T h e situ atio n p re se n te d h ere is an a lo g o u s to d ra w in g 5 item s fro m a j a r (the five m em b ers v o tin g in fa v o r o f th e p lain tiff). l ) ( .3 + . let A be th e e v e n t o f in terest. T h a t is. th ere a re nA = 5 2 w ay s fo r the ev en t A to o cc u r.3 .1 .41 4 .608 d A g ain . five o f the eig h t m e m b ers are ran d o m ly c h o sen to be th o se vo tin g fo r the plain tiff.00 0 3 7 N 1 4 0.6 0 0 w ay s (fro m p a rt b) fo r th e e v e n t A to o ccu r. W h a t is the p ro b a h ility th at all five are w o m en ? T h ere are 8' N = C \ = — — = 56 5!3! sim p le ev e n ts in the e x p e rim e n t.3 ( 4 ) = .7 0 P (A P (A u B ) .5 M u tu ally ex clu siv e 0 .0 7 5 9 0 7 6 Í1 0 19) .

P (A n B ) = 1/3 . b P ( A |C ) = P ( A n C ) / P ( C ) = 0 . Since P ( A | C ) * P ( A ) . a P ( A n 4 ) = P ( A ) í >(A 2 | A ) = -2(.3 . so th a t A and B are not m u tu ally ex clu siv e. P (A r \ B ) = P { A ) P { B ) = . £ 4. .8(.14 b P(D¡ n D 2 ) = P ( D ¡)Pi.P ( A n f i ) = . l and P ( \ \ D .2 ) = .7) = .7 ) = . a n d P ( A n C ) = 0 g B n C c o n t a i n s n o sim p le e v e n ts. n A 2) + P ( A i n D 2) = P ( D . P ( A 2 \ A t ) = P ( D 1 \ D t ) = .4 8 b P (A \B )= « A n B ) = yi= x v ' P(B) 1/3 c B = { £ „ £ .52 D efin e th e fo llo w in g events: A: p ro je c t is ap p ro v ed fo r fu n d in g D: p ro jec t is d isa p p ro v e d fo r fu n d in g F o r the first g ro u p .) = . A and C are m u tu ally exclu siv e. | D . F o r the se co n d g ro u p .2(.) + P ( A . ) = P ( D 7 \ A ) = . P [sam e d ecisió n as first g ro u p ] = .3 . T h a t is. an d P ( f i n C ) = 0 h A k j C = S an d P ( A u C ) = l ¡ 8 u C = { £ l .(. P ( A n B ) ^ 0 . £ j an d P ( P u C ) = 5 /6 a F ro m E x e rc ise 4 . } a n d P ( B ) = 2 /6 = 1/3 d A n f i n C co n tain s no sim p le e v e n ts. P ( A n C ) = 0 . P ( A | B ) = 1 .56 c P (D .4 7 . 8(.7 and P [rev ersal] = .D2 \ £).5 9 F ix th e b irth events: A 2: A 3: A 4: d a te o f th e first p e rso n en te rin g th e ro o m .2 and P ( D . £ .3) + . P { \ ) = . P (A ) = 1/2 .8 . A an d C a re d e p e n d e n t.)P (A .) = .4 + . so th at A a n d B are n o t in d ep en d e n t. and P ( A n B n C ) = 0 e P ( A n B ) = P ( A \ B ) P ( B ) = 1(1/3) = 1/3 f A n C co n tain s no sim p le e v en ts. 4 .) = .4 9 4. £ s .08 .2 .2 ) = . P (A ) = 1 /2 .30 4. b P ( A u B ) = P ( A ) + P ( P ) .4 .5 5 a S ince A an d B are in d ep en d e n t. S in ce P ( A r \ C ) = 0 .3) = .4 )(.4 (. T h e n d e fin e th e fo llo w in g se co n d p e rs o n ’s b irth d a y d iffe rs fro m th e first th ird p e rs o n ’s b irth d ay d iffe rs fro m the first a n d seco n d fo u rth p e rs o n ’s b irth d a y d iffe rs fro m all p rec e d in g A n: nlh p e rs o n ’s b irth d a y d iffe rs fro m all p rece d in g 34 .) P ( D 2 1A . P ( A | B ) * P ( A ) .

) For i = l .9 9 1 8 (365) b For n = 4 .94 = . P(B) = \ .365J l 365 ) since at e a c h step.) + P ( S 2 ) P ( A | S 2) = .2 ) + . 2 L73 D efin e T h en .7 (. D e fin e = .69 a P { A k j B ) = P { A ) + P ( B ) .0 3 (.P ( A ) 4 .0\.3) For P(5.7 (.2 ) + .3(. P ( B C) = .23 A: m a ch in e p ro d u c e s a d e fe c tiv e item B: w o rk e r fo llo w s in stru ctio n s P ( A \ B ) = . S in ce ev en t B is the c o m p le m e n t o f e v e n t A.94 .3) = .P( A n B ) = . T h e p ro b a b ility o f in terest is P(A) = P ( A r ^ B ) + P ( A n B c ) = P { A | B ) P ( B ) + P ( A | B C) P ( B C) = .6 3 a F o r n = 3 .P ( A k j B ) = 1 . P ( A ) = (3 6 4 )(3 6 3 ) = 9 9 l8 and P ( B ) = 1 . P(S..9 8 3 6 = .98. w ritin g b U se the re su lts o f p art a in the fo rm o f B a y e s’ R ule: P ( A ) = P (5 .77 T h e p ro b a b ility o f in te re st is P ( A \ H ) w h ich can be calc u la ted using B a y e s’ R ule a n d th e p ro b a b ilitie s g iv en in th e ex ercise.0082 P (A ) = (3 6 4 X3 6 3 X3 6 2 ) = 9 8 3 6 a n d P ( B ) = 1 . ) P ( » | 5 .01(. P ( B ) = .T hen P ( A ) = P ( A 2) P ( A ) .90) + .23 P ( S | M ) = -------------W .3(.98 .01 a U se the L a w o f T o ta l P ro b a b ility .P ( A ii) = ' 364^1^ 363 p 65-/i + n v365J .99 = .2 ) + .0164 (3 6 5 ) A: sm o k e is d e te c te d by d e v ice A B : sm o ke is d e tec te d b y d e v ic e B I f it is g iv e n th a t P ( A ) = .95. |A) = -------------- í = 2. ) P ( A 15 .3(.1 0 ) = . 35 . P ( A \ B c ) = . ) P ^P iA lS ^+ P iS ^P iA lS .3913 . 4.99 b P ( A C n B c ) = l .. a n d P ( A n B ) = . o n e less b irth d ate is a v a ila b le fo r selectio n .23 =^ = .90.95 + . P ( B ) = .012 1.7 (.03.6087 .1 0 .. | A) = ----------------1 ..3) = — = .

2 b T h e p ro b ab ility h isto g ra m is sh o w n below .P (A \H ) = ________________ P ( A ) P ( H \ A ) ________________ P ( A ) P ( H | A ) + P ( B ) P ( H | B ) + P ( C ) P ( H \ C) __________ . 1) + 1(.028 75 4 .3) H— + 4 (. d U sin g th e tab le fo rm o f the p ro b a b ility d istrib u tio n g iv en in the ex ercise.95) + .90) + .1.8 7 P ( x < 3) = 1 .1) + (1 . c F o r th e ran d o m v ariab le x g iv e n h ere.90)____________ . I f th e key is not found oír the first try.1. T h e fo u r a sso c ia te d sim p le ev e n ts are show n below .P ( x = 4) = 1 .8 3 a S ince o n e o f the re q u ire m e n ts o f a p ro b a b ility d istrib u tio n is th a t ^ p(x) = 1 X w e need p (3 ) = 1 .3 + . P ( x > 2) = .9)2(.01(. T h e ra n d o m v a ria b le is x. 1) = 1. 1) = 1 .29 an d í t = V T 2 9 = 1 .2 + .3 1 3 0 .9)2(.p f Y ^ x .0 2 (. 1 + .3) + --.1 3 6 .9 ) 2(.+ ( 4 . th e p ro b a b ility c h a n g e s o n th e se co n d try. H = E ( x ) = Z x p ( x ) = 0 (.009 = . th e n u m b er o f keys tried b efo re the c o rre c t key is fo u n d. L et F d e n o te a failu re to find th e key a n d S d e n o te a su ccess.:S ( x = \) E 3: F F S ( x = 3) E 2:F S (^ = 2) E 4: F F F S (* = 4) 36 .p ) 1 p ( x ) = (0 ..l) = 1.1 . th e p ro b a b ility o f se lec tin g th e p ro p e r key is 1/4.(.8 = . a-b O n the first try.0 05(.9 T h e v arian ce o f x is d efin ed as ( j 1 ^ E ^ x . 1 = .01(. e 4 . 3 .. E .9 .3 + . l = .7 5 ) ” .

F in ally .0 9 . b u t is fo u n d on th e seco n d d rillin g . p ( 2 ) = P ( N O ) = (. T hus.1 p ( 2) = P [ o il stru ck on seco n d d r illin g ] .9 )(.9)(.081 . 37 . T h e p ro b ab ility h isto g ram is sh o w n on the n ex t p age.c -d T hen P ( l) = P ( x = 1) = P ( S ) = 1/4 p{ 2) = P(jc = 2) = P ( F 5 ) = P ( F ) P ( S ) = ( 3 /4 ) (1/3) = 1/4 p ( 3) = P ( * = 3) = P ( F F S ) = P ( F ) P ( F ) P ( S ) = ( 3 /4 ) ( 2 /3 ) (1 /2 ) = 1/4 p (4 ) = F(jc = 4 ) = P ( F F F S ) = P ( F ) P ( F ) P ( F ) P ( S ) = ( 3 / 4 ) ( 2 / 3 ) ( l / 2 ) ( l ) = 1/4 T h e p ro b a b ility d istrib u tio n and p robability h isto g ram follow .1) failu res m ust o c c u r b e fo re the first success. p ( 3) = P ( N N O ) = (. N N O ) = (. b -c F o r th e first su ccess to o c c u r on trial x.1) N ’s in th e seq u en ce.91 L et x be the n u m b e r o f d rillin g s until the first su ccess (oil is stru ck ). 1) sin ce th ere are (jc . (jc . It is g iv en that th e p ro b ab ility o f strik in g oil is P ( O ) = . T h is is th e p ro b a b ility th at oil is not fo u n d on th e first d rillin g . so that th e p ro b a b ility o f n o oil is P ( N ) = . U sin g the M u ltip lic a tio n L aw ..9)*"' (. 1) = .9 a p{ 1) = F [ o il stru ck on first d rillin g ] = P ( 0 ) = .1 .9 )(. JC 2 4 1 3 1/4 1/4 1/4 1/4 p( x) . 1) = . p ( x ) = P ( N N N ..

01. th ere is a p ro b lem o f tru th fu ln ess o f th e re sp o n se fo r a q u e stio n su c h as th is w h ich m ay be a sen sitiv e su b je ct fo r so m e p eo p le.99 E { G ) = l G p ( G ) = . but D .1) p eo p le w ho d o b eliev e in h eav en m u st be c a lle d b e fo re the first n o n -b e lie v e r is found. D 2.. resp ec tiv e ly .5 0 . th e p ro b a b ility d istrib u tio n for G is g iv en below . T h e p ro b a b ility o f in te rest is P ( A C r \ B ) = P ( B | Ac ) P ( A r ) = . N N Y ) = ( .9 7 a S im ila r to E x e rc ise 4 .23(. (x .101 D efin e the fo llo w in g events: A: w o rk er fails to re p o rt fraud B: w o rk er su ffers rep risal It is g iv en th at P ( B | A c ) = . D en o te the seven sy stem s as G 1( G 2.9 5 T h e ran d o m v ariab le G . F o r the fírst n o n -b e lie v e r to be fo u n d on ca li jc.8 1)*"1(.31) = . A lso.5 0 . 19) b A s w ith o th e r p h o n e su rv ey s.5 0 0 o r D = $ 1 5 0 0 . 4 . . to tal g ain to th e in su ra n c e co m p a n y .5 0 .99 an d .5 0 .0 0 0 if th ere is a th eft d u rin g a g iv en y ear.9 1.0 0 0 ) = D . T h e e x p e cte d g ain is G_____________ p ( G) D .01 In o rd e r that E ( G ) = 1000 .0713 4 . th ree o f w h ich a re d efec tiv e .99 D + .69 . th ere is a lw ay s a p ro b le m o f n o n -re sp o n se p eo p le w ho d o not an sw er th e te le p h o n e o r d e c lin e to p a rtic ip a te in th e su rv ey . w ill be D if th ere is no th eft. H e n ee. G 3. T hus.23 and P ( A ) = . D (. it is n e cessary to h av e 1000 = D . 38 .0 1 (D . T h e se tw o ev e n ts w ill o c c u r w ith p ro b a b ility . G 4.0 0 0 D .0 0 0 . p ( x ) = P ( N N N .1 0 5 T w o sy stcm s are se lected from sev en . 4 . D 3 a c co rd in g to w h eth e r th e y are g o o d o r d efectiv e.1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 x 4 .

P ít h r e e o r f e w e r n c o l d ) 4 9 /2 7 6 49 P Í T h r e e o r fe w e r c o id ) = = — = ----. 4 . co n sists o f th e sim p le ev e n ts G |G 2. the p ro b a b ility o f a m atch on a sin g le trial 39 .D 3 G2G4 G2D2 G2D3 g]d2 G4D1 G4D2 G1G3 D . G3G4.27 . G 2G 3. o r 1 .2 7 5 . 3889 v 1 ’ P ( c o ld ) 1 2 6 /2 7 6 126 4 . G1G2 G jD | G.2530 ^ 2 7 6 . a P (c o ld ) = P ( o n e F and one S ) = P ( F n S ) + P ( S n F ) 100 276 ( 96 275 y + r 96 ^ í k x T = . G2G4. H enee. 1 . ) + ( l . .1 1 3 D efin e th e fo llo w in g ev en ts: B j: clien t b u y s o n first c o n ta c t B 2: c lie n t b u y s o n se co n d co n tac t Since the c lie n t m ay b u y on e ith e r the first o f the seco n d co n tac t. a n y p a ir has an eq u al p ro b a b ility o f b ein g selected . G1G3.5 5 ) = .1 0 9 4 9 + 43 + 34 126 = . A m atch o ccu rs w h en e ith e r H H o r T T is o b serv ed . G3D3 G4D3 D . the p ro b a b ility a ssig n e d to e a ch sim p le e v e n t is 1/21 and P ( A ) = 6 /2 1 = 2 /7 . c o n sistin g o f 21 p airs.4565 276 276 F: p e rso n has fo u r o r fiv e re latio n sh ip s D efine: S: p erso n h a s six o r m o re re latio n sh ip s T h en for the tw o p e o p le ch o sen fro m th e total 276.D 2 G 2G 3 D2D3 G3G4 G1G2 G3D1 G 2D.E ach sim p le e v en t w ill re p re se n t a p a rtic u la r p a ir o f sy stem s c h o sen fo r testin g . the d e sired p ro b a b ility is a P [c lie n t w ill b uy ] = P [c lie n t b u y s o n first co n tac t] + P [clien t d o esn 't b u y on first.1 1 7 E a c h hall can be c h o sen fro m the se t (4. 4 . H enee..73 b T h e p ro b ab ility th a t th e c lie n t w ill n o t buy is o n e m in u s the p ro b a b ility th at the clien t w ill buy.D 3 N o te that th e tw o sy ste m s are d raw n sim u ltan e o u sly and th at o rd e r is u n im p o rtan t in id e n tify in g a sim p le e v en t. “no d e fe c tiv e s are se lec ted ” . G1G4. is show n below .73 = .. th e re are a to tal o f 2 (2 )(2 ) = 8 p o te n tial w in n in g num b ers. H e n ee. H en ee.P ( f í 1) ) P ( f i 2) = .G4 G .4 + ( l . T h e e v e n t A .= .121 a C o n sid e r a sin g le trial w h ich co n sists o f to ssin g tw o co ins. S in ce the sy stem s are selected at ra n d o m .4 ) ( . and th e sa m p le sp ace. the p airs G |G 2 a n d G 2G! are not c o n sid e re d to re p re se n t tw o d iffe re n t sim p le e v en ts. 4 . b u t buys on seco n d ] = P ( P . 6 ) and there are th ree su ch b alls.

/ > M ) = .= — . H en e e.1 3 3 a D efin e P: sh o p p e r p refers P epsi a n d C: sh o p p e r p refers C o k e . If the stu d en ts h av e stu d ied to g e th e r o r if th ey b o th k n o w th e c o rre c t an sw er. T h e n if th ere is actu a lly no d ifferen c e in th e taste. H enee.. 2. six tests a re n e e d e d if the la st tw o tests are g iv en to the d iseased p eo p le. the d e sired 4! 1 p ro b ab ility is — = .8 b P ( A r f l r ) = / > ( / l c ) / > ( £ c ) = (.8 )(. in th ree triá is P ( A A A ) = P ( A ) P ( A ) P ( A ) = (1 /4 )' = 1/64 c T h is lo w p ro b a b ility w o u ld n o t su g g e st c o llu sio n .is P ( H H ) + P ( T T ) = 1 /4 + 1/4 = 1 /2 . b u t is su b sta n tia lly h igher. T h e re are (5 )(4 )(3 )(2 )(1 ) w ays o f o rd e rin g th e five tests. 4 .1 2 5 D efin e the ev en ts: A: the m an w aits five m in u te s o r lo n g er B : the w o m an w aits five m in u te s o r lo n g er T h e tw o ev en ts are in d ep en d e n t.2 . b O n a sin g le trial the e v e n t A . 5! 10 4 .P [n e ith e r w a its five m in u te s o r lo n g er] = 1 .. H en ee. a n d th ere are 4 (3 )(2 )(1 ) w ay s o f o rd erin g the tests so th at the d ise a se d p erso n is g iv e n the fin al test. and P ( A ) = P ( B ) = .64 c P [ a t least one w aits five m in u te s o r lo n g er] = 1 . T h ere are 3 (2 )(1 ) w ay s o f o rd e rin g the tests o f the o th e r th ree p eo p le and 2(1) w ays o f o rd e rin g the tests o f th e tw o d ise a se d p eo p le. a P ( A r ) = l .8 ) = . w e a re in tereste d in th e p ro b a b ility o f req u irin g five single tests to d ete c t the d isease in the sin g le a ffe c te d p erso n . P (P ) = P (C ) = 1/2 and b P (e x a c tly one p refers P ep si) = P ( P C C C ) + P ( C P C C ) + P ( C C P C ) + P ( C C C P ) 40 . sin ce th e p ro b a b ility o f th ree m atch es is lo w o nly if w e assu m e th at e a c h stu d e n t is m erely g u e ssin g at e ac h an sw er. the p ro b ab ility o f a m atch on a sin g le trial is no lo n g er 1/2. H enee. If tw o p e o p le are d iseased .36 4 .1 2 9 S ince th e first p o o le d test is p o sitiv e. L et M M M d e n o te the e v e n t “m atch on triáis 1.P ( A ( B c ) = 1 . and 3” . 6 4 = . the p ro b a b ility 2 !3! 1 that six tests w ill be n eed ed is -----. “tw o tra ils are o b se rv e d ” h as p ro b a b ility P ( A ) = P ( T T ) = 1/4 . the o ccu rren c e o f th ree m atch es is no t u n u su al. T h en P ( M M M ) = P ( M ) P ( M ) P ( M ) = (1 /2 )3 = 1/8.

1 3 7 R efer to the T o ssin g D ice ap p le t. the fo llo w in g p ro b a h ility d istrib u tio n is o b tain ed . E ach sim p le e v e n t h as a p artic u la r v alué o f T a sso c ia te d w ith it. a-b T 2 p(T) 1/36 T 8 3 4 2 /3 6 3 /36 4 /3 6 5 /36 9 10 5 6 7 2 4 11 12 p( T) 5/36 4 /3 6 3 /36 2 /36 1/36 6 /3 6 6 8 X -______________ 41 10 12 . in w h ich the sim p le e v e n ts fo r th is e x p e rim e n t are d isp lay ed .4 . and by su m m in g the p ro b a b ilitie s o f all sim p le e v e n ts p ro d u cin g a p artic u la r v alu é o f T . T h e d istrib u tio n is m o u n d -sh ap ed .

1 .9 5 ) ‘ = . 5..5r= .058 3.367 43 . 1 .745 .437 a C ¡ ( .6 )9 = . 7.P (x < 2) 1 —. ( .0 1 1 = . 5.006 P ( x = 1) = C !° (.4 4 8 .5 T hree o r m ore P ( x < 3 ) .4.011 . 0 9 ) ( .P (x < 2) .448 .989 M ore th a n three 4 .194 .5)S(.. 7.011 P ( x < 2) P ( x > 4 ) = 1 . 8 P (x > 3) 1 .382 = .0( .P ( x < 3 ).2 5 1 . 3) 1 . 2 .001 .6 )6 = .9 5 )4 = ( .011 = . 3 8 2 + .215 T h e su m o f these p ro b a b ilitie s g iv es P ( x < 3) = .. 5.3 ) .5: Several Useful Discrete Distributions F o llo w the in stru c tio n s in th e P erso n al T ra in e r sectio n .5)7= ^ ^ (. 058 = .5 3 5) O E xactly three P<3 < jc < .7 ) 6 = | Z 2 ( . b T o c a lc ú late P ( x > 4 ) = p ( 4 ) + p ( 5) + ---+ p (1 0 ) it is e a sie st to w rite r-~ s II = 3) < 5 ) .6 )'° = .2 P (x < 3) B etw een 3 and 5 (in clu siv e) 3 . 8 P (x > 3) 1 . 6.4 )2 (.11 P fx P (x oo 5.6 )8 = .040 P ( x = 2) = C!.P ( x < 4 ) = 1 . 4 . P ( x > 4 ) = 1 .000 T h e P r o b le m T hree o r less L is t th e W r ite th e R e w r ite th e F in d th e V a lú e s o f x p r o b a b ility p ro b a b ility p ro b a b ility 0.058 .3 P ( x < 3) .P ( x < 4) = 1 .942 1.8 ) 6 = . 6.382 an d P ( x > 4 ) = 1 . P ( x = 4 ) = C 4°(-4)4 (.0 5 )° ( . o r altern ativ ely usin g the c u m u la tiv e b in o m ial tab les in A p p e n d ix I.2965 b C S (.000 . P ( x = 0 ) = C o °(.3 6 7 0 a F o r n = 10 and p = .942 F e w e r than three 0 .1 k 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 P ( x < k) . T h ese p ro b ab ilitie s can be fo u n d in d iv id u a lly u sin g the b in o m ial fo rm u la.4 )° (.2 5 1) = .P (x <.P (x < 2) © r 5.8 )6 = 7 ( .4 .121 P ( x = 3) = C 3°(-4)3 (.( .1172 d Ci7(-2 )‘ (. T h e an sw ers are sh o w n in the tab les below .8 1 4 5 c C'J»(.6 )? = . l 1 7 649) = .2 ) ( .6 1 8 . c U se the resu lts o f p arts a and b.4 )‘ (.

6 8 3 to 4 . t < 3 ] = .0 2 5 < jc < 6 . 1) = 2 a n d O = yj npq = V E 8 = 1.8 2 8 .0 2 5 so that P [.1 an d ti = 25.4 .9 5 6 8 2 6 .549 a P f j t < 12] = P [ x < 1 1] = ..997 c P [e ig h t o r fe w e r] = P ( x < 8) = . D efin e x to be the n u m b er o f a la rm sy ste m s th at a re trig g e re d .P ( x < 7 ) = 1 . A p p e n d ix I.99 . 0 0 0 = 1 .2 .748 b P [ x < 6] = .1 7 2 = .l ) ' (-9 )17 = .251 = . p ± 2 o = 2 ± 4 .P [ . c A d d in g th e e n trie s fo r x = 0 .957. we h av e P [x < 4] = .1 )1(.6 8 3 ] = P [ 0 < * < 4 ] = .0 8 9 7 7 8 8 ^ ( 2 ) = C l° (-1 )2 (-9 )'8 = . b P [m o re th an se v en ] = P ( x > 7 ) = \ .610 c />[ jc > 4] = 1 .656 a p (0 ) = C o °(-l)° (-9 )20 = .0 2 5 to 6 . /j ± 2 ct = 2 ± 2 .086 D efin e x to be the n u m b er o f c a rs th at are black.4 ) ( . P { x < 4 ) = P ( x < 3) + P ( x = 4 ) = .1 5 5 .2702 + . l ) 4 ( .6 3 3 = . 5 . S in ce th ere is a tab le av a ila b le in A p p en d ix I fo r n = 9 and p = .0 2 5 o r -2 . / / ± c r = 2 ± l .1 . T h en p = P [alarm is trig g e re d ] = .9 ) '6 = . d p = n p = 2 0(..3 ..6 8 3 or .^ [ jc < 4] = 1 .1 9 0 1 1 9 9 M D = C ?0(. 1901 = .0 2 5 ] = P [ 0 < x < 6] = .2 7 0 1 7 0 3 p (4 ) = C 4 .1 9 d F ro m p a rt c. e n = n p = 1 0 (.P [ x ^ 5] = 1 —.7455 F or k = 2 .6 8 3 so that P [ .9569 F o r k = 3 .382 + .( . 0 0 3 = . U se T ab le 1 in A p p e n d ix I.966 e P [ 3 < J t < 7 ] = P [ x < 6 ] . b U sin g T a b le 1.9977 f 5.3 4 2 so that P [. 44 ..2 5 a P [ a t least o n e alarm is trig g e re d ] = P ( x > 1) = 1 .1 2 1 5 7 6 7 p (3 ) = C f ( .5..2 8 5 1 7 9 8 so that P [ x < 4] = p ( 0 ) + p ( 1) + p { 2) + p ( 3) + p ( 4 ) = . 6 8 3 < x < 4 .342 o r .367 d P [ x > 6] = 1 .658 to 3 .99 a n d n = 9 .658 < jc < 3 .0 0 0 . y o u sh o u ld use it rath e r than th e b in o m ial fo rm u la to c a lc ú late the n e cessary p ro b ab ilities.4 ) = 4 f o = yj ñpq = 7 l0 ( .2 .9 )19 = .6 ) = y ¡ 2 A = 1.23 T h e resu lts are c o n siste n t w ith T c h e b y s h e ff s T h e o re m a n d th e E m p irical R ule.9 5 6 8 2 5 5 P [ x < 4] is re a d d ire c tly as . T h en p = P [b la c k ] = ..2 8 5 2 + .3416 e F o r ¿ = 1.P ( x = 0 ) = 1 .034 = .3 4 2 ] = P [ 1 < x < 3] = .6 3 3 .

2 9 a / >( jc > 5 ) = 1 .9 0 2 = . a valué o f x = 25 w o u ld be very u n lik ely ..098 d P ( x = 4 ) = P ( x < 4 ) . T h is is e v id e n c e o f c ontagi ón.2565 2 ..P ( x < 4 ) = 1 .902 = ./ >( jc < 4 ) = 1 . a ssu m in g th a t the ch ara c te ristic s o f th e b in o m ial e x p erim en t are m et an d th at p = .5 .098 b P ( x < 6 ) = .991 c P ( x > 4 ) = l .P ( x < 2 ) = . 1 . T h e n .1 .762 F o llo w the in stru c tio n s in the M y P erso n al T ra in e r sectio n .0821 2 . H en ee y o u w o u ld e x p e c t ap p ro x im a tely 9 5 % o f th e m e a su re m e n ts to lie w ithin tw o stan d a rd d ev iatio n o f the m e a n w ith o = y j n p q = ^ 1 0 0 (.7 6 4 = . a p = n p = 1 0 0 (.5438 . U sin g th e b in o m ial ta b le s in A p p en d ix I.5 1e~25 1! P (* = 2) .7 . T h e a n sw ers are sh o w n in the tab le below .1 )(.3 3 D efin e x to be the n u m b e r o f A m e ric an s w h o a re “ta s te rs” . T h en p = P [in fe c te d field ] = . ev en th o u g h p = ..P ( x < 16) = 1 .l) = 10 b S in ce n is larg e. T h is co u ld easily be th e case.5 3 7 = . it m ig h t be p o ssib le th at the triáis (fie ld s) are n o t in d ep en d e n t.9 6 7 . 5 .. 5 V 25 0! P (* = l) . n = 2 0 and p = .107 b P ( x < 15) = . I f this v a lu é w ere actu a lly o b serv ed .9 ) = 3.P ( x < 3 ) = . 8 9 3 = . P ro b a b ility P (x = 0) F o rm u la C a lc u la te d v a lu é .9 0 2 .3 5 a P ( x > 17) = 1 .1 an d n = 100.. T h e lim its are calc u la te d as / i ± 2 í t => 10 ± 6 o r from 4 to 16 c F ro m p a rt b. th is b in o m ia l d istrib u tio n sh o u ld be fairly m o u n d -sh a p e d .430 f P ( m o r e than 20 n ot b la c k ) = P ( le s s th an 5 b la c k ) = P ( x < 4 ) = . sin ce an in festatio n in o n e field m ig h t q u ic k ly sp re a d to a n e ig h b o rin g field.2 0 5 2 2 .138 e P ( 3 < jc < 5 ) = P ( x < 5 ) .902 D efin e x to be the n u m b e r o f field s in fested w ith w hitefly. 5 V 25 2! P (2 o r few er su ccesses) P (x = 0 ) + P (x = 1) + P (x = 2) 45 . 5 .

1755 5! P [ x > 5] = 1 . .36 C 4C " x_ ¿ x fo r x = 0 .27 0 6 7 c P [ x > 1] = 1 . H en ee.47 X! a d 5..1 .P [ x < 1] = 1 .48 C j5 455 C 4C “ 4 P( 3) = . 5. T h e p ro b ab ility o f in te re st is P [ x ex c e ed s m áx im u m c o u n t] = P [ x > 5] U sin g th e fact th a t p = 2 an d < j = 1. n u m b e r o f b a cte ria.5 6 0 fro m T a b le 2.3 9 U sin g p ( x ) = X p x e~^ 2* e x\ 2°e~2 p [jc = 0 l = ---------.1 3 5 3 3 5 .51 T h e fo rm u la fo r p { x ) is p ( x ) = b c 4c " 165 C j5 455 p ( 0) = ^ = £ ^ = « . it is u n lik e ly th a t x w ill e x c ee d 5.0067 p ( 5) = ---------= .. In fact..4 7 .135335 b /> [* = l] = —— = .017. 4 4 0 = .15 C j5 455 = ./>[* < 4] = 1 .3 p(\) = C 4r “ 220 = — — = .b r . 0 1 c 15 45 5 T h e p ro b ab ility h isto g ra m is s h o w n below . T h e ran d o m v ariab le x. m o st o f the o b se rv a tio n s sh o u ld fall w ith in p ± 2cr o r 0 to 4 .2 7 0 6 7 = .= — .= . T h en x has a P o isso n d istrib u tio n w ith p = 5.43 -2 5V 5 0) = e ' 5 = .2 .414 fro m E x e rc ise 5 .= .. has a P o isso n d istrib u tio n w ith p = 2 .5 9 3 9 9 4 1 J O! 2V 2 9-V2 P [ * = 5] = --------. the e x a c t P o isso n p ro b a b ility is P [ x > 5] = .= .5.0 3 6 0 8 9 1 J 5! L et x be the n u m b e r o f m isse s d u rin g a g iv en m o n th . p( c 5.

4.= I j l i l = . 5 .3 C 5 .9 2 7 ] = p ( 0) + p ( 1) + p { 2) = . l ) '( .n > d i * C alcú late th e in terv als o í 4 "l f 15 —4 ^ i U .^ .99 P [. sin ce the p ro b ab ility o f o b serv in g a h ead is so sm all.. l ) 2 (.1) p ± 2 a = .8 ± 2 > /.2 1 8 / / ± 3cr = . 6 1 8 to 2 . P [.5^-3 p(x) = * fo r x = 0 .6 1 8 < jc < 2 .8 ± 1.3 2 7 < x < 2 .2 4 3 />[.2 .6 1 b P ( x = 3) = d P ( x < 1) = V ' C ¡C ¡ _ 10 = — = .i = 3] = p (3 ) = C ! ( . 1 in stead o f p = .8 + 1.3 2 7 to 2 . 47 . T h en -. th e p ro b a b ility o f o b se rv in g a sm all n u m b e r o f h ead s on th ree flips is in creased (see th e fig u re on the n ex t p ag e).027 P [ .5 0 2 8 6 .5 0 2 8 6 = .418 o r .v = 2] = p ( 2 ) = C 5 ( .1786 56 C* r 5r ? C¡ = — = .418 or .55 a T h e ran d o m v a riab le x has a h y p e rg e o m e tric d istrib u tio n w ith N = 8 .8 ± 3-V-50286 = .01786 56 r 5r 3 1 + 15 + . a P [ .M >Í N .9 )' = .729 P [ j : = 1]= /> (1) = C ¡'(-1 )‘ (-9 )2 = . ( b ii ’j j c í 4^ . ) I .U sin g th e fo rm u la s g iv en in S ectio n 5.5 . th a t is.1 .1 . 15] ( N . 9 ) “ = .4 .l y .1 .6 0 an d assu m e th at p = . 5.t = 0] = p ( 0 ) = C o (-l)° (-9 )' = ..9 2 7 T h en .99 T h e se resu lts a g ree w ith T c h e b y sh e ff’s T h eo rem .M = 5 an d rc = 3.0 0 1 b N o te that th e p ro b a b ility d istrib u tio n is n o lo n g e r sy m m etric .2857 C3* 56 R e fe r to E x ercise 5 .2 1 8 ] = p ( 0 ) + p ( 1) + p ( 2 ) = .5 = .

6 9 It is g iv en that jc = n u m b e r o f p a tie n ts w ith a p sy c h o so m atic p ro b lem . so th at . o r the p sy ch iatrist is in c o rre ct and p is ac tu a lly less th an . P [ x < 14] = . a jc A ssu m in g th at th e p sy c h ia trist is c o rre c t (th at is. p = .3 . W e w o u ld p ro b a b ly c o n c lu d e that the p sy c h ia trist is in co rre c t.8 ) = 20. x .0 1 2 3 c f j = n p = 3 (.7 7 2 = .0 . 13 is v ery u n lik ely . th ere is no e v id en c e to in d íc a te th at p e o p le are m o re lik ely to c h o o se th e in te rio r n u m b ers than an y o thers.520 d T h e d esired in terv als are // + ít = .* < 7 ] = 1 . th e e x p e cte d v alu é o f is E ( x ) = n p = 2 5 (.6 4 .972 o f the m e a su re m e n ts fall w ith in tw o sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n s o f th e m ean . o n e o f tw o c o n c lu sio n s can be d raw n . 1) = . 9 ) = .8 .6 5 R efer to E x ercise 5 .8 )(. T h e re fo re .5 2 0 /y ± 2 (7 = .729. 2 . 2 2 0 to . n = 2 5 . 5 . d A ssu m in g th a t the p sy c h ia trist is co rrec t.8 ). a /> [jc > 8] = 1 .228 b O b serv in g e ig h t o r m o re p e o p le ch o o sin g an in te rio r n u m b e r is n o t an u n lik ely event. R e d e fin e x to be the n u m b e r o f p e o p le w ho c h o o se an in te rio r n u m b er in the sa m p le o f n = 20. A p sy c h ia trist w ish es to d eterm in e w h eth er o r not p = .820 o r . c o n siste n t w ith b o th T c h e b y sh e fP s T h e o rem an d the E m p irical R ule. 1. . . T h en x has a b in o m ial d istrib u tio n w ith p = ./ > [ .3 ± 1 . the p ro b ab ility o f o b se rv in g jc = 14 or the m ore u n lik ely v alú es. a ssu m in g th a t th e in te g e rs are all e q u a lly likely.8 . ..34 T h e o n ly valu é o f x w h ich falls in this first in terv al is jc = 0 . and p = f ’fp atien t has p sy ch o so m a tic p ro b le m ]. 7 4 0 to 1. H en ee.243 = .3 an d (T = yj npq = ^ 3 ( . and the fractio n o f m e asu rem en ts in th is in terv al w ill be .. T h e v alú es o f * = 0 and jc = 1 a re en clo sed by th e seco n d in terv al.006 fro m T a b le 1 in A p p e n d ix I.7 2 9 + ..0 4 o r . T h e p ro b a b ility th at w e h av e m ad e an in co rrect d e cisió n is 48 .2 ) = 4 c G iv e n th at p = .3 ± . l ) ( . 5. b ( f L = n p q = 2 5 (.8. E ith e r w e have o b se rv e d a v ery u n lik e ly e v e n t.

2440 c P ( x < 1) = C d R efer to p art c. T h e p ro b a b ility o f o b se rv in g x = 1 o r so m eth in g (.2 5 ) = 5 0 and G .7 5 a T h e ran d o m v ariab le x. then p = 10/12 00 = .1667 ---------= . p = n p = 2 0 0 (. w ith n p < 7..25. b T h e o b se rv e d valué.75. p = 3 0 /1 2 0 0 and p = . H o w ev er.25.75 .10 (. b If p is sm all. 3 3 3 3 Í V 3333 />(jc = 0 ) * = .2 .71 D efin e x to be the n u m b er o f stu d en ts 3 0 y ears o r o ld er.0 0 8 3 3 3 an d p = .1667. T h is is a hig h ly u n lik e ly e v e n t if in fact p = .75 f (. a S in ce x h as a b in o m ial d istrib u tio n . T h en ( 5)° é f 5 /> (* = 0 ) = ^ = .61 ’ 0! 49 . 1 6 6 7 ) % . the P o isso n a p p ro x im a tio n c a n be used. 5. the d istrib u tio n o f * can be clo se ly a p p ro x im a te d by th e b in o m ia l d istrib u tio n w ith // = 2 0 a n d p = P [d efectiv e].7 9 a T h e d is trib u tio n o f x is actu a lly h y p erg e o m e tric . e v en m ore u n lik ely ( x = 0 ) is very sm all . the n u m b er o f p la n ts w ith re d p etá is.2 5 )'° + C. c If there are 10 d efectiv es in the lot. ( . has a b in o m ial d is trib u tio n w ith n = 10 and p = P [r e d p etáis] = . T h en x ( .2 5 )' + C¡¡¡ (. It is u n lik ely th a t p = .4 5 6 . 1877 + . 5. n = 20 and M = n u m b e r o f d e fe c tiv e s in th e lot.72 V 0! ’ If th ere are 3 0 d efe c tiv es.0 5 6 3 = . b S in ce th e v alu é p = . w ith ti = 2 0 0 and p = ^ [ s tu d e n t is 3 0 + years] = .7 5 )° (. sin ce N is so larg e in co m p a riso n to n .85 p(x = 0 W 0! If th ere are 2 0 d efe ctiv e s.0 0 0 0 2 9 6 . o r the 7 5 % figure is not c o r r e d for this p a rtic u la r g en etic cross.124. w ith N = 1200.8] = .0 0 0 0 2 9 6 .P [ x < 14 g iv en p = . 5 . 2 5 ) ( .7 5 )'° (. you m u st use th e b in o m ia l fo rm u la to calc ú late P ( x > 9 ) = C¿° (.2 5 )9 = . 1 5 ) = 6. x = 35 .yj2 0 0 ( .75 is n o t g iv en in T a b le 1.yfñ p q . 5.3333. P erh ap s th ere has been a n o n ran d o m c h o ice o f seed s.1 2 4 stan d ard d ev ia tio n s b e lo w the m ean.2 5 )° = .7 5 )' (.006 w hich is q u ite sm all. p = 2 0 /1 2 0 0 and p = . lies ^ « = . T h e p ro b ab ility th a t the lot is sh ip p ed is .

.0 (10)"5 = 0 .9 ) = 1 .82. 1) = 1.8 7 T h e ran d o m v ariab le x has a P o isso n d istrib u tio n w ith p = 2.1 6 1 9 ) = > . U se the C a lc u la tin g B in o m ia l P r o b a b ilitie s ap p let.5 . if th ere is no d ifferen c e in th e taste o f the th rce sam ples.l)(.042 e P(*>6)= 1 c P ( x > 14) = .0176 50 . a P ( 6 l < x < 100) = . T h en x has a b inom ial d istrib u tio n w ith n = 100 an d p = .0207 D efin e x to be the n u m b e r o f y o u n g ad u lts w h o p re fe r M c D o n a ld ’s. the n u m b e r o f C alifo rn ia h o m e o w n e rs w ith earth q u a k e insurance.P ( x = 0) = 1 .9 5 5 . th e n u m b e r o f tasters w h o p ick the c o rrec t sam p le.944 = .0 0 0 0 6 d P ( 2 < x < 6 ) = .5. U se T a b le 2 in A p p en d ix I or the P o isso n fo rm u la to fin d the fo llo w in g p ro b a b ilitie s.6 7 6 6 7 6 5.270671 + .9 9 U se the C a lc u la tin g B in o m ia l P r o b a b ilitie s ap p let. a P(jc = 0 ) = ----------= e~2 = .056 c C alcú late p = np = 15(.2 0 6 = . 1.270671 = . h a s a b in o m ial d istrib u tio n w ith n = 5 an d .1 35335 0! = . 5 .794 b P ( x > 4) = 1 .8 2 to 3. a P ( x < 6 ) = 6 ..1 6 1 9 . T h e c o rre c t a n sw ers are giv en below .91 T h e ran d o m v a riab le x . T h en ap p ro x im a tely 9 5 % o f th e v a lú e s o f x sh o u ld lie in the interv al //± 2 c r = > 1 . o r b etw een 0 and 3.P (x < 3) = 1 . 135335 + . p = P{ ta ste r p ic k s th e c o rre ct sam p le) = ^ b T h e p ro b a b ility th at e x a c tly o n e o f th e five ta ste rs c h o o se s th e late st b atc h as d ifferen t fro m the o th e rs is 5.5 an d a = yfñpq = > /l5 (.. h as a b in o m ial d istrib u tio n w ith n = 15 and p = .8 3 a T h e ran d o m v ariab le x. a P ( x > 1) = 1 .5948 b P ( x = 8) = .5 ± 2 ( 1 .

5.b P ( 4 0 < x < 6 0 ) = . T he p ro b ab ility is th e sam e as th at ca lc u la te d in p a rt b . 51 . and vice v ersa.9648 c I f 4 0 p re fe r B u rg er K ing. th en 6 0 p re fer M cD o n ald s. sin ce p = .

9452. in th e ab o v e e x a m p le . the total a re a ly in g to the rig h t o f a sp ecifie d valu é o f z a n d the total a re a to its left m u st a d d to 1.58 ) = 1. T h u s. W h en th e v alu é o f z is la rg e r th an z = 3 . 3 T o find the a re a u n d e r th e sta n d a rd n o rm al c u rv e b etw ee n tw o v alú es. b T h e area to th e left o f z = 1. c A = A (. T h en . a n d the a rea th at is o b ta in e d w ill be su b tra c te d fro m 1.6 .6: The Normal Probability Distribution 6 . z¡ and z2. w e can assu m e th at th e area to its left is a p p ro x im a tely 1. 1 T ab le 3.9664.1 . 53 .A ( z x). a n d p o sitiv e v alú es lie to the right.3 T h e first few e x e rc ise s are d e sig n e d to p ro v id e p ra c tic e fo r th e stu d en t in ev alu a tin g areas u n d er the n orm al cu rv e .8159 d A = A (4. A p p en d ix I ta b u la te s th e c u m u la tiv e a re a u n d e r a stan d ard n o rm al cu rv e to the left o f a sp e cifie d v alu é o f z. b o th p o sitiv e and n eg a tiv e. N o tic e th at th e v alú es in T a b le 3 a p p ro a c h 1 as the v alu é o f z increases. A = A (1. 2 S in ce th e total a rea u n d e r the cu rv e is on e.7 N o w w e are ask e d to fin d the z-v a lu e co rre sp o n d in g to a p a rtic u la r area. D eno te the area o b tain ed by in d e x in g z = z0 in T a b le 3 b y /\( z 0) and th e d e sired a re a by A. in o rd e r to calc ú late a “tail a re a ” .83 is A = /f tl .83) = . T h e fo llo w in g n o tes m ay be o f so m e assistan ce. sim ila r to x. A = A { z 2 ) . su ch as the o n e sh o w n in F ig u re 6 .6) = . N e g a tiv e v a lú e s o f z lie to th e le ft o f th e m ean . A = 1 .4 9 (th e la rg e st v a lu é in th e table).90) = . is a c tu a lly a ra n d o m v ariab le w h ich m ay tak e o n an infinite n u m b e r o f v alú es. 4 N o te that z. z = 0 . the v a lu é o f z = z 0 w ill be in d ex ed in T a b le 3. 6. c a lc ú late the d iffe re n c e in th e ir c u m u la tiv e a reas. T h a t is.A (z0) . a It is n ecessa ry to fin d th e a re a to th e left o f z = 1 .

. b W e need to find a zo su ch th a t P { z < z Q) = .h percen tile. T h e re fo re . w e find a v alu é such that the in d e x ed a re a is . 54 . A ( \ . z0 = 1.96.96 is th e d e sire d z-v a lu e (see the fig u re b elow ). T h is is e q u iv a le n t to fin d in g an in d ex ed a re a o f 1 .a W e need to find a zo su c h th a t P ( z > z 0 ) = .4 4 . as sh o w n fo r the 9 0 th percen tile in th e fig u re on th e n ex t p ag e.025 = .9251 (see b elo w ). T h e p th p ercen tile .9251.9 7 5 0 .9 7 5 0 . S earch th e in te rio r o f T a b le 3 until y o u fin d the fo u rd ig it n u m b er . th at is. th e valu é o f z w ill all lie to the rig h t o f z = 0 .975 . U sin g T ab le 3.o f th e sta n d a rd n o rm al d is trib u tio n is a v alu é o f z w h ich has a rea p / 100 to its left. T h e c o rresp o n d in g z-v a lu e is * 0 = 1 .9 6 ) = . Since all fo u r p erc e n tile s in this ex e rc ise are g re a te r th an th e 5 0 . T h e c o rre sp o n d in g z-v alu e is 1.025.

F ro m T a b le 3. 6 . the ap p ro p ria te v a lu é o f z is fo u n d u sin g lin ea r in terp o latio n (see E x e rc ise 6 .8 = 68 and 6(12) +1 = 73 inches. the a re a to the left o f th e 9 0 lh p e rc en tile is .9 0 0 0 .1 9 35 = 2 3 .3 3 .6 4 5 . T hen 55 .6 4 5 . the ap p ro p ria te v alu é o f z is c lo se st to z = 1.9 b ) as z = 1 . a A h eig h t o f 6 ’0 ” rep rese n ts 6(12) = 72 in ch es.05 w ith a rea . F ro m T a b le 3.8 9 9 7 .1949 H eig h ts o f 5 ’8” a n d 6 ’ 1” re p rese n t 5(12) -t. so that P (x > 72) = p Í z > — b = p { z > -86) = 1 -. the h e ig h t o f a m ale h u m an . F ro m T a b le 3. the a p p ro p ria te v alu é o f z is c lo se st to z = 2. H en ee the 9 5 lh p erce n tile is z = 1 .1 Id to be z = 2 . b A s in p art a .h p e rc e n tile o f the stan d a rd norm al d istrib u tio n w as fo u n d in E x ercise 6.a F ro m the fig u re.h p e rc e n tile is a p p ro x im a te ly z = 2 .33 w ith a re a .3 or x = 58.5 . H en ee th e 9 9 . H en ee th e 9 0 lh p e rc e n tile is ap p ro x im ate ly z = 1 .8 0 5 1 = .28 w ith a re a . the c o rre sp o n d in g p e rc e n tile fo r th is g en eral o no rm al ran d o m v a riab le is fo u n d b y so lv in g fo r x = f j + z(J \ 10 jc- 6 . h as a n o rm al d istrib u tio n w ith fJ = 6 9 and o = 3. H en ee the 9 8 lh p e rc e n tile is a p p ro x im ately z = 2 .1 5 T h e 9 9 . resp ectiv ely .2 8 . S in ce the re la tio n sh ip b e tw een the g en eral n o rm al ra n d o m v a riab le * an d the stan d a rd n orm al z is z = x —u — .3 3 .3 T h e ra n d o m v ariab le jc. th e a rea to the left o f th e 9 5 th p e rc e n tile is .9800. th e ap p ro p riate v alu é o f z is c lo se st to z = 2.9500.9900.9901. c T h e area to the left o f th e 9 8 th p erc en tile is . d T h e a re a to th e left o f the 9 9 lh p erc en tile is .0 5 . F ro m T a b le 3.9798.

d T he p ro b ab ility th at a m an is 6 ’0 ” o r ta lle r w as fo u n d in p art a to be . 6 . It is n e cessary to fin d P ( x > 1300) a n d P ( x > 1500) if the d istrib u tio n o f jc is a p p ro x im a te ly n o rm al.. 1949) = 7 . T h e valué y = 17 lies o 2. then y h as a b in o m ial d istrib u tio n w ith m ean f i = n p = 36(.= 1.3 8 5 9 = ..1 5 6 2 . sin ce it is less th an tw o stan d ard d e v iatio n s fro m the m ean.2 9 < z < 1. w h ich h as a z-v alu e o f 3. has a m ean o f / r = 1200 an d a varian ce o 1 = 9 8 0 0 .5 T h is w ould not be c o n sid e re d an u n u su ally larg e valué. R e fe r to th e n ext figurc- 1200 1300 1300 -p 1 3 0 0 .4870 c A h eig h t o f 6 ’0 ” rep re sen ts 6(12) = 72 in ch es.2 3 T h e ran d o m v ariab le jc. w hich is not an u nusual o cc u rre n ce . P erh a p s o u r p re sid e n ts d o n o t re p re se n t a ran do m sam p le fro m th is p o p u latio n .01 o V 9800 9 8 . H o w e v er. a n d w o u ld be c o n sid e re d an u n u su al o ccu rre n c e for the g en eral p o p u la tio n o f m ale h u m an s. = -----------.01) = 1 —.14) = .01) = 1 —A(1. 56 .8 7 2 9 .1 9 4 9 .6 8 -6 9 7 3 -6 9 ^ 1 P ( 6 8 < jc < 7 3 ) = p \ —— — < z < — j = ^ ( . \ 9 4 9 ) ( M 5 \ ) = 2 .8 4 3 8 = .1 2 0 0 _ 100 -4 -= — . total w eig h t o f 8 p eo p le . 3 8 .38 stan d ard d e v ia tio n s from th e m ean . if y o u d efin e y to be th e n u m b e r o f m en in a ran d o m sam p le o f size « = 36 w h o are 6 ’0 ” o r taller.0 2 a n d sta n d a rd d ev iatio n a = y¡ñpq = y l 3 6 ( .995 P ( x > 13 0 0 ) = P ( z > 1.

5 .5 ) = 1 . T h e p ro b ah ility o f in te re st is the area u n d er the b in o m ial p ro b a h ility h isto g ram c o rre sp o n d in g to the re c ta n g le s x = 6 .3 )(. are a p p ro x im a te ly n o rm al w ith m ean /y = 4. b C a lcú late z = x —u 4 3 7 5 -4 5 ----. T h e n jc.0 0 0 ) = P z < K 10. T he p u b lish e r w ould like to sp ecify w so that P ( x < 1 0 0 ..0 0 0 .0 0 0 an d cr = 1 0 .5 c an d o = yjnp q = -v/2 5 (.3 7 a T h e norm al a p p ro x im a tio n w ill be a p p ro p ria te if b o th n p and n q are g rea te r than 5.8 and 9 in th e fig u re on the n ex t p ag e. ( z < z 0 ) = -95 => A ( z 0 ) = .7 ) = 2 . P ( x > 1500) = P ( z > 3 .7 5 -4 . It is n e c e ssa ry th at z0 = ( 8 0 .9 9 3 8 = .2 9 1 . 10. is n o rm ally d is trib u te d w ith /y = w + 2 0 .0 0 6 2 .1 2 0 0 Zi — — . A s in E x ercise 6 .5 an d stan d a rd d e v ia tio n o .1 P ( x > 4 .7 5 ) = P ( z > 2 .9 5 .¿ (3 .000 8 0 .9 9 8 8 = .000 ) 8 0 .7 .1 P ( x < 4 . and 6.w 10.3 0 .------(7 >/9800 . 6.000 6 .5 and n q = 2 5 (.3 7 5 ) = P ( z < .1 .Vj j .9 5 0 0 or z0 = 1 . 8 0 .0 . It is n e cessary to d e te rm in e the p ro b a h ility that x e x c e e d s 4 . th e n u m b e r o f w ords in th e m a n u scrip t.0 3 ) = 1 .5 5 0 .0 0 0 be su ch th at /.5 an d the no rm al a p p ro x im atio n is ap p ro p riate.0 0 0 .0 0 0 ) = .7 5 ./ / _ 1 5 0 0 . b F o r the b in o m ia l ra n d o m variable. C alcú late x -n 4 . H enee.1 0 5 6 .2 5 ) = . th e z-v alu e c o rre sp o n d in g to x 2 = 1 5 0 0 is _ *2 .-.0 0 1 2 . = .w ) /l 0 .0 0 0 0 . F o r th is b in o m ial ex p e rim en t.= .S im ilarly .= 2 . p = n p = 7. calc ú late 1 0 0 .7 ) = 17.1 .2 7 ^ j a It is g iv en th a t the p rim e in te re st rate fo recasts. 0 0 0 .w = 1.95 .5 — = --------------.0 0 0 ) Z-- T h en P ( x < 1 0 0 .0 3 ) = 1 .( w + 2 0 . T h en z= o 0.1 -25 . n p = 2 5 ( 3 ) = 1.645 or w = 6 3 ..31 L et w be the n u m b e r o f w o rd s sp ecifie d in the co n trac t.0 0 0 . T h en o 0.000 —_ T . 57 .6 4 5 .0 0 0 -w } ’ 10. x.

. y o u ca n v erify th at a P ( .2 9 8 . the p ro b a b ilitie s in p arts a -c w ill be accu rate. 6. u se the “c o rre c tio n fo r c o n tin u ity ” and fin d the a re a u n d e r a no rm al cu rv e w ith m ean fu = 7.291 b e tw e e n x { = 5. T h en 2 0 .5 ^ z . = 9 . T he Z-values co rre sp o n d in g to the tw o v a lú e s o f x are ^ = .2 9 8 \ b T h e ap p ro x im a tin g p ro b a b ility is P ( x < 14.7 ...28 = 22 do p refer cherry.5 ) = P z > ■ 3 . 8 7 < z < . 3. 193 = .8 0 7 8 .5 .r = 5) = P ( .5) = P z < 1 4 .2 3 8 = .16.5 a n d x 2 = 9.291 P ( 5.5 ) = p ( z > 22-5 ~ .291 T h e a p p ro x im a tin g p ro b a b ility is z..8 7 ) = .4 5 ) = .5 .3 2 ) = 16 a n d o = >/5 0 (. x < 5 ) . th en m o re th an 5 0 . 58 .1 9 2 2 = .178 b P ( x > 7 ) = 1 .3 2 )(.811 —. T h e a p p ro x im a tin g p ro b a b ility is P ( x > 2 2 .5 .P ( a : < 6 ) = 1 .298 d A s lo n g as y o u r c la ss c a n be a ssu m ed to be a re p re se n ta tiv e sam p le o f all A m erican s.392 a T h e a p p ro x im a tin g p ro b a b ility w ill be P ( x > 2 0 .618 w h ich is not too fa r fro m the a p p ro x im a te p ro b ab ility c a lc u la te d in p art c.3 .5 ) = P ( .P ( j t < 4 ) = ..4 1 6 .2 9 8 c If few er than 28 stu d e n ts d o n o t p re fe r ch erry . / >( 6 < j c < 9 ) = / >( j c < 9 ) —/ >( j c < 5 ) = .5 ) w h ere x h as a norm al d istrib u tio n w ith ¡a = 5 0 (. = ------------.41 6.9 7 5 6 = .5 and o = 2..0244 v ’ 1.= .9131 = ..5 -1 6 ' = P ( Z > 1. d F rom T ab le 1.1 6 = P ( z < .3264 3 .T o ap p ro x im ate th is are a .608 = .87 2 2.4 5 U sing th e b in o m ia l tab les fo r n = 2 0 a n d p = .6 8 ) = 3 .0869 P ( x > 2 0 .6 1 5 6 .5 < * < 9 . = P ( z > 1.36) = 1 —. 87 an d 2. A p p en d ix I.97) = 1 .

7 5 w h ich is w ith in tw o G 3.5793 .56 an d z = 0 . th en the ra n d o m v ariab le x h as a b in o m ial d istrib u tio n w ith n = 31 a n d p = .6 1 7 9 = .5 5 a T h e d esired are A |.5) = 1 5 . b T h e d esired a re a is sh o w n o n the n e x t page: A. T h e z-sco re fo r x = 25 is z = —— — = — — — = ..4 9 D efin e x to be the n u m b e r o f e le c tio n s in w h ich the ta lle r ca n d id a te w on.62 .5 and G = y¡3\(. 2 ) = .5)(.4 2 0 7 = .5 : P ( x > 16.6 4 0 6 = .3 ..3 5 9 4 b S in ce the o c c u rren c e o f 17 o u t o f 31 ta lle r c h o ic e s is n o t u n u su a l. 2) . a n d le t x be the n u m b e r o f w o rk in g w o m e n w h o put in m o re than 4 0 h o u rs p e r w eek on the jo b .432.3) = .6 . = A ( 1. b T h e stan d ard d ev ia tio n o f x is G = yjnp q = >/5 0 (. b a se d o n the resu lts o f p art a. C alcú late p = n p = 31(. = A(.9406 . w e fin d the a rea to the rig h t o f x = 16. it a p p e a rs th at A m e ric a n s d o not c o n sid e r h e ig h t w h en c a stin g a vote fo r a can d id ate.. is fo u n d by su b tra c tin g the cu m u la tiv e a re as c o rresp o n d in g to z = 1. If A m e ric a n s are not b iased by h eig h t.1 .432 stan d ard d e v ia tio n s o f the m ean.6 2 )(. T h e n x has a b in o m ial d istrib u tio n w ith n = 50 an d p = . c 6 .5) = P \^z > 1625 ~g45 '5 ) = P ( z > -3 6 ) = 1 .5) = V 7/75 = 2 . a T h e a v erag e v alu é o f * is (i = np = 5 0 (.5 2 .A (. A. + A. T h is is n o t co n sid e re d an u n u su al o ccu rren ce. resp ectiv ely .6 2 ) = 31. 6 .5 .5 3 R e fe r to E x ercise 6 .3 8 ) = 3.7 8 4 a U sin g the n o rm al a p p ro x im a tio n w ith co rre ctio n fo r c o n tin u ity .1 5 8 6 59 . as sh o w n in the fig u re on the n ext p ag e .A { .3 2 2 7 .56) .

05 F ro m T ab le 3. H enee. w e k n o w th a t th e v alu é o f z th a t sa tisfie s the a b o v e p ro b a b ility statem e n t is z = . L et t be the g u aran te e tim e fo r the c a r.6 3 It is giv en th at x is n o rm ally d is trib u te d w ith fu = 10 and <7 = 3 . T h e v alú es z = .J 5 j = . = -67 and z 2 = .6 4 5 .2500.2 5 1 4 and P2 = .67 re p re se n t the 2 5 1*1 and 7 5 th p erce n tiles o f the sta n d a rd n orm al d istrib u tio n . . is c lo se r to P[ = . zo.1 . w e ap p ro x im a te zo as z0 = .5 9 d esired valu é. S in ce the d esire d tail area . 6 7 and z = .6. 6.05 or p f z < L . will be b e tw e e n z.2483 . It is n e c e ssa ry th at o n ly 5% o f th e c a rs fail b efo re tim e t (see belo w ).68 w ith a sso c ia te d p ro b a b ilitie s Px = . T h a t is. P ( x < í ) = .. 60 .67 .2 5 1 4 .

^ ^ o r / i = 7. It is n e cessary to fin d a v alu é o f /y so that P { x > 8) = . 9 0 % o f the stu d en ts w ill finish the e x a m in a tio n b e fo re the set tim e lim it).7 0 It is g iv en th a t th e ran d o m v ariab le * (o u n ces o f fill) is n o rm a lly d istrib u te d w ith m ean /y and sta n d a rd d ev ia tio n o = . ------------------- W e m u st ha ve P (x< X o)= p [ z < ^ y 'v .01 is z0 = 2 . T h en 7 -//' = . th e a p p ro x im a te v alu é fo r zo is 12 _ 6. T h a t is.0 6 5 m onths or F o r th is ex e rc ise ¡u = 1 0 and o = 1 2 . 90 = .3 x = n u m b er o f in c o m in g c a lis th at are lo n g d istan ce p = P [in c o m in g ca li is lo n g d istan ce] = .90 12 xn —7 0 C o n sid e r z 0 = — . the v alu é o f /y can be o b ta in e d b y so lv in g fo r/y in th e fo llo w in g equ atio n : 6. .71 x o. an 8 -o u n ce c u p w ill o v erflo w w h en x > 8.7 5 D efin e 2 . x 0. W ith o u t in terp o latin g . th e v alu é o f z c o rre sp o n d in g to an area (in th e u p p e r tail o f the P ( x > 8) = P ^ z > d istrib u tio n ) o f .301 .7 0 l .0 1 .3 .0 1 .3 61 . R e fe r to the fig u re below .-— - 6.3 3 .1 . •3 F ro m T a b le 3. a n d th is sh o u ld h ap p en o n ly 1% o f the tim e. fo r th e ran d o m v a ria b le x so th a t P ( x < x0 ) = .6 4 5 t = 5 .6 7 = . Flence. T h e o b je c t is to d e te rm in e a p a rtic u la r valu é.90 (th at is.3 3 = .

3 - S 0.1 6 7 12 sta n d a rd d e v iatio n s b elo w the m ean g esta tio n tim e. w h ere x is a b in o m ial ra n d o m v ariab le w ith H = n p = 2 0 0 (. C o n v e rtin g th ese v alú es to th e ir e q u iv ale n ts fo r the g en eral ra n d o m v a ria b le x using the relatio n sh ip jc = p + z o . the v alu é x = 6 (3 0 ) = 180 is u nu su al. a F ro m E x ercise 6 . the g e sta tio n tim e fo r a h u m an b aby is n o rm ally d istrib u te d w ith p = 278 and <7 = 1 2 .1 - 0.f j _ 1 8 0 -2 7 8 o = -8 .5 9 . 0 -3 -2 -1 0 x 62 2 3 ._________________________________________________ ______ A 0 .9 6 and .. 6 7 and = . the v alú es (ro u n d e d to tw o d e c im al p la ce s) z = . the p ro p o rtio n s sh o w n in the tab le n eed to be ap p lied to the n o rm al cu rv e. as sh o w n in the fig u re below .2- 0 . sin ce it lies _ x .481 A co rre ctio n for co n tin u ity is m ad e to in clu d e the e n tire a rea u n d e r the rectan g le co rre sp o n d in g to x = 5 0 and h en ee the a p p ro x im a tio n w ill be 6 .8 3 In o rd e r to im p lem en t th e trad itio n al in te rp re ta tio n o f “c u rv in g th e g ra d e s” .67 re p resen t the 2 5 lh an d VS01 p e rc e n tile s o f the sta n d a rd n o rm al d istrib u tio n .0 4 If you c o n sid e r a m o n th to be a p p ro x im a te ly 3 0 d ay s.n = 200 T he d esired p ro b ab ility is P ( x > 5 0 ) ..67(12) + 2 7 8 = 2 8 6 .7 9 T h e ra n d o m v ariab le jc.3 ) = 6 0 and ^ = V 2 Ó 0 (3 )C 7 ) = >/42 = 6. 6 7 ( 1 2 ) + 2 7 8 = 2 6 9 . 6 . y o u have: Z b T h e lo w er q u artile: jc = T h e u p p e r q u artile: jc = .

b U se the N o rm a l P r o b a b ilitie s a n d z-sc o r e s ap plet. 6 .0 ) = . a sco re o f 6 8 0 d e p a rts from the m ean o f 540. It is n ecessary to d e term in e h o w far. C h o o se O n e-ta il fro m the d ro p d o w n list and re a d th e p ro b ab ility as P rob = 0 .. a p p ro x im ate ly 10.9651.0 6 6 8 .27) = 1 . C h o o se C u m u la tiv e fro m the d ro p d o w n list and read the p ro b ab ility as P ro b = 0 .1 0 0 0 to its left.2 7 3 w ith P ro b = 0 .3 0 0 0 . th at is.) 63 . T he u p p er b o u n d ary is th en z = + .2 8 .2 3 < z < . b T h e c u to ff fo r th e lo w e st D a n d hig h est B g ra d e s c o n stitu te the lo w e r a n d u p p er b o u n d aries o f the m id d le 8 0 % . 0 < z < 2 . T h e u p p e r b o u n d ary is then z = 1 .2 / . T h e clo se st v alu é in the ta b le is .5 2 . E n te r 5 as the m ean an d 2 as th e sta n d a rd d ev iatio n and x = 7. T he c lo se st v alué in the tab le is . T h e lo w e r b o u n d ary h as a rca .1 0 2 0 T h u s.= -------------------= 1. F ro m T a b le 3. T h e p ro b ab ility is read fro m th e a p p le t as P ro b = 0.3 0 1 5 w ith z = .1 .8 7 6. 4 0 % on e ith e r sid e o f the m ean .1 . 6 .1000. w e fin d the a rea u n d e r th e sta n d ard iz ed n o rm al c u rv e g re a ter than 1.2 . 2 0 % on e ith e r sid e o f the m ean .0561 a U se the N o r m a l D istr ib u tio n P r o b a b ilities ap p let.0 1 0 7 = . w e n eed to Find a v alu é o f z such that A (z) = . U sin g T a b le 3. (T h e ap p let u ses three d ecim al p lace a c c u racy and sh o w s z = 1 . C alcú late x -/J 6 8 0 -5 4 0 o 110 .. 5 ) = .a T h e C g ra d es c o n stitu te th e m id d le 4 0 % ..2% o f the p eo p le w ho to o k the te st sc o re d h ig h e r th a n 680.27.1 0 5 6 .1003 w ith z = .0 0 6 2 .9 5 a It is g iv en th a t th e sc o re s o n a n ational ach ie v e m en t test w ere ap p ro x im ate ly n o rm ally d is trib u te d w ith a m ean o f 5 4 0 and sta n d a rd d ev ia tio n o f 110.9544 b P ( . E n te r 5 as the m ean a n d 2 as the sta n d a rd d ev ia tio n and x = 0 . a P ( . 5 2 . in stan d ard d ev iatio n s. E n te r 5 as the m ean and 2 as the sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n .9 1 U se e ith e r the N o r m a l D istrib u tio n P ro b a b ilitie s o r the N o r m a l P r o b a b ilitie s a n d z-sc o r e s applets. that is.5 .0 2 2 8 = ..3 0 0 0 to its left. and the a p p ro p riate lo w er and u p p e r b o u n d a rie s fo r the p ro b a b ilitie s y o u need to calc ú la te . b T o Find the p erc e n ta g e o f p eo p le w ho sco re d h ig h e r than 6 8 0 .1 0 1 6 .9 7 7 2 . th is a rea is eq u al to P ( x > 6 8 0 ) = P ( z > 1. so w e need to Find a v alu é o f z su c h th at A (z) = . Z = --------. T h e lo w er b o u n d a ry h as area . 8 9 8 0 = .2 8 . c U se the N o r m a l P r o b a b ilitie s a n d z-sc o r e s a p p let.

1 3 a T h e first q u estio n is m o re unbiased . 1. the sta n d a rd e rro r o f th e m ean is <7 / y fñ = l/ y f ñ T h e v alú es o f <7 / y fñ fo r v ario u s v alú es o f n a re tab u lated b e lo w a n d p lo tte d on th e n ex t p ag e.2 c n = 120.1 9 R e g ard le ss o f the sh ap e o f the p o p u la tio n from w h ich w e are sa m p lin g . F o r ex am p le . 7.1 F irst ch o o se a startin g p o in t an d c o n sid e r the first th ree d ig its in e ac h n u m b er. 7 . N o tic e th a t the sta n d a rd e rro r d ecrea s e s as the sa m p le size increases. T h e three d ig its O R the (th ree d ig its . th e first 2 0 ca n be used.7: Sampling Distributions Y o u can select a sim p le ra n d o m sam p le o f size n = 2 0 u s in g T a b le 10 in A p p e n d ix I. a /y = 10. a sa m p le o b ta in e d by selectin g e v e ry ten th p erso n is p ro b a b ly a fa irly ra n d o m sam ple. if th e th ree d ig its are 7 4 2 . ( j / y f ñ = 2 / -n/ToO = . N u m b e r e a c h o f the 5 0 rats from 01 to 50.2 2 -2 3 F o r a p o p u latio n w ith o = 1 . ( j / y f ñ = 3/> /36 =. 7 .5 0 0 = 2 4 2 . 7 . _ n ______________________ 1__________ 2__________ 4_________ 9_________ 16__________25___________100 SE(x) = a / 4 ñ L(X) _7Q7 _5(X) J33 65 _25Q _20Q 100 . cr/V ñ = l/>/8 = . se lec t 25 tw o -d ig it ra n d o m n u m b e rs fro m T a b le 10. T he p ro b a h ility th at any th ree d ig it n u m b e r is se lected is 2 /1 0 0 0 = 1/500 .5 0 0 ) w ill id en tify th e p ro p e r ex p e rim e n ta l unit. th e sa m p lin g d istrib u tio n o f the sam p le m e a n will have a m ean / / eq u al to the m ean o f the p o p u latio n from w h ich w e a re sam p lin g .9 U se a ra n d o m izatio n sc h e m e sim ila r to th at u sed in E x ercise 7 .5 0 ) w ill id en tify th e p ro p e r e x p erim en tal unit. O ne p o ssib le selectio n for the sam p le size n = 2 0 is 134 412 244 156 242 056 469 399 173 188 332 028 128 255 439 238 399 388 101 231 7 . a n d a stan d ard d ev ia tio n e q u a l to o ¡ \ f ñ . E ach tw o -d ig it n u m b e r O R the (tw o d ig its . you sh o u ld select the e x p e rim e n ta l u nit n u m b ered 7 4 2 .5 b ju = 5. b N o tice that th e p erce n ta g e fav o rin g the new space p ro g ram d ro p s d ram atica lly w h en the p h rase “ sp en d in g b illio n s o f d o lla rs” is ad d ed to the q u estio n .5 If all o f th e to w n c itiz e n ry is lik ely to p ass th is c o m e r.3536 7 . T o ch o o se the 25 rats w h o w ill re c eiv e the d o se o f M X . S in ce the e x p erim en tal u n its have alre a d y been n u m b ered from 0 0 0 to 9 9 9 .

b T h e v ariab ility in th e a v e ra g e m ea su re m e n t is m ea su re d b y th e sta n d a rd e rro r.3 1 2 1 = . an d so on.2 5 .028 < z < 1 /2.8 /V l3 0 = .7 ./ / ) < l ) . th e actu a l p e rc e n t tax sav in g s.2 5 a A g e o f e q u ip m e n t. w e need o n ly fin d o / y f ñ to ap p ro x im a te the ab o v e p ro b ab ility .6 _ • Cj/yfñ 0 . w ith m ean ¡a and sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n < r/y fñ . te c h n ic ian e rro r.028) = P ( . d iffe re n c e in C hem ical p u rity .j u \ < l) = P ( .A 9 < z < . S in ce z = X . T h e p ro b a b ility o f in terest is P ( \ x . (j /y j n has a sta n d ard n o rm al d istrib u tio n . In o rd e r to d e crea se this v a riab ility y o u sh o u ld in c rea se th e sa m p le size n.4 9 ) = .9 8 . tech n ician fatigue.07 0 1 6 T h e z-v alu e co rre sp o n d in g to * = 9 8 . as giv en by th e p ro b a b ility d istrib u tio n fo r *.6 8 7 9 .3 3 a S in ce th e-erig in al p o p u la tio n is n o rm ally d istrib u te d . it c a n be a p p ro x im a te d by s = 12 an d o / y f ñ = 1 2 /^ 3 5 = 2 .0 2 8 . T h o u g h o is u n k n o w n .3758 b N o.2 5 is 9 8 . e q u ip m e n t failu re ..1 /2. th e sa m p le m ean * is also no rm ally d istrib u te d (fo r any sa m p le size) w ith m ean /y and sta n d a rd d ev iatio n (7/ y f ñ ~ 0 . 7 . T h e re are m an y p o ssib le v alú es fo r * . 7. c o n ta m in a tio n fro m o u tsid e so u rce s.f i \ < 1) = P ( . T h en P ( \ x .8 A /I3 Ó 66 . H o w e v er.2 9 a T h e p o p u la tio n fro m w h ich w e are ran d o m ly sa m p lin g n = 35 m e a su re m e n ts is no t n ecessarily n o rm ally d istrib u te d . the sam p lin g d istrib u tio n o f x d o e s have an ap p ro x im a te norm al d istrib u tio n . o / y f ñ .1 < ( * .

p = .9 9 ) = O b S ince th e p ro b a b ility is e x tre m e ly sm all.05 . S E ( p ) = V ' V a 7 .1 5 and n q = 4 7 . this b in o m ial d istrib u tio n c a n be a p p ro x im ate d b y a I 13( .99 .2 5 d eg re e s is v ery u nlikely.0099 .03 . N o tic e th at S E is m áx im u m fo r p = . h as a b in o m ial d is trib u tio n w ith n = 55 a n d p = . 13 a n d S E = .04535.0458 .2 5 ) = P ( z < .0458 .5 a n d b e co m e s v ery sm all fo r p n e a r zero and one.41 = .3 7 b p = . p S E (P ) 7.87) n orm al d istrib u tio n w ith m ean p = .50 . 2 ) = / > ^ < | ^ | j = P ( c < 1 .l. 13.90 . F V 55 b / .10 .0099 T he ran d o m v ariab le p .70 .9382 67 .015 0310 T h e v alú es S E = 7.3.( p < .0458 n p q / n fo r n = 100 a n d v ario u s v alú es o f p a re ta b u late d a n d g rap h ed b elow .03 .* V 100 = J | | = .4 5 a .8 5 are b o th g re a ter th an 5.4 . 5 4 ) = .30 .and P ( x < 9 8 . the sa m p le p ro p o rtio n o f b ro w n M & M s in a p ack ag e o f n = 55 .01 . the a v e ra g e te m p eratu re o f 9 8 . : 1 = . S in ce n p = 7 . S£ ( p ) = ^ c p = .

1 6 .5 2.5 68 .7 7 = 150. 197 + .9 + 3 ^ 2 = 155. 7 .3 5 ) = ^ > ^ ^ j = /> (j > 4 .3 l-P(1V n 7 .3 .2 .5 .4 9 a T h e u p p er an d or .4 .0 4 5 3 5 ) . V a lú e s o f x are p lo tted .2 1.96) sta n d a rd d e v iatio n s o f the m ean: p ± 2 S E => .316 = .3 .22 lo w e r co n tro l lim its are Ü C L = x + 3 -^ = = 155.9 .5 4.8 5 ) = 1 .5 . b-c T h e 6 sam p les a lo n g w ith the sam p le m ean s fo r e a c h are sh o w n b elo w . 119 = . I f not.1 = 0 d F ro m the E m p iric al R ule (an d the g en eral p ro p ertie s o f the n o rm al d istrib u tio n ).15 in the tex t).67 L C L = x .2 6 3 . 1 9 7 . a p p ro x im ately 9 5 % o f th e m easu rem e n ts will lie w ithin 2 (o r 1. 3 2 .1' 19 7 ( 8 0 ^ = .5 4 .3.c P (p > .1 9 7 30 T h e u p p e r an d lo w er co n tro l lim its for the p ch art are then U C L = p + 3 J P(1 L C L = p . 197 + 3 J .5 5 C a lc ú la te p= — k — + -26 .0 1 . 19 7 . the sam p lin g d istrib u tio n o f x is giv en as p (T ) = - 6 fo r x = 1 .5 6.2 .13 y/5 b T h e co n tro l ch art is c o n stru cte d b y p lo ttin g tw o h o rizo n ta l lin es.5 .^ = = 1 5 5 .3 ^ = 1 5 5 .0 1.1 3 ± 2 (. S am ple_________________ O b serv a tio n s________________ x_ 3 4 5 6 .0 9 7 .1 3 ± .5 .2 3.7 7 = 161.4 .078 V 100 = 6 sam p les are p o ssib le. 119 = .. and sh o u ld rem ain w ith in the co n tro l lim its.04 to .1- - =. 9 . o n e th e u p p er c o n tro l lim it and o n e th e lo w e r co n tro l lim it (see F ig u re 7.9 + 5 .6 0 a C\ = P ) = . the p ro c e ss sh o u ld be ch eck ed .3 1 2 d Since e ach o f the 6 d istin c t v alú es o f x are eq u ally lik ely (d u e to ran d o m sam p lin g ).

b T h is is a 1-in . th is is an e x a m p le o f c lu ste r sam p lin g . c T h e researc h e r has actu a lly se lec ted a co n v e n ie n c e sample-. it will p ro b ab ly beh av e like a sim p le ra n d o m sa m p le .04 + . 1. A ssig n an id en tific atio n n u m b e r fro m 01 to 2 0 to e a c h p e rso n .7 5 a T h e av erag e p ro p o rtio n o f d e fe c tiv e s is _ . e T h is is a sim p le ra n d o m sam p le fro m the p o p u latio n o f all tax re tu rn s filed in the c ity o f S an B ern ard in o .6 5 a T o d ivid e a g ro u p o f 2 0 p eo p le in to tw o g ro u p s o f 10. A large d a tab a se o f so m e so rt sh o u ld be u sed to en su re a fairly re p re sen ta tiv e sam ple.5 4 . 7. su b trac t m ú ltip le s o f 2 0 fro m the ra n d o m n u m b e r until you o b tain a n u m b er b e tw een 01 a n d 2 0 . c T h e w ard s are the strata.03 ^ p = --------------------------. d T h is is a l-in -1 0 sy stem a tic sam p le.T h e s a m pling d is trib u tio n is sh o w n b e low .5 3 .5 2. use T a b le 10 in A p p e n d ix I. 7.10 sy stem atic sam p le.0 2 .032 25 an d the co n tro l lim its are 69 . and the sa m p le is a stra tifie d sam p le.02 H— + . sin ce a p e rs o n ’s en th u sia sm fo r a paid jo b sh o u ld not affect h is resp o n se to th is p sy c h o lo g ic a l ex p e rim en t.71 a S ince e ach c lu ste r (a c ity b lo ck ) is ce n su sed . h o w ev er.= . C alifo rn ia. N o tice th at n o n e o f th e sa m p les o f size n = 2 p ro d u ce a valué o f x e x a ctly eq u al to the p o p u la tio n m ean.) b A lth o u g h it is n o t p o ssib le to se le ct an actu a l ra n d o m sam p le fro m this h y p o th etica l p o p u latio n . 7.5 * e T h e p o p u latio n m ean is p = (6 + 1 + 3 + 2 ) / 4 = 3 . T h e n se lec t ten tw o d ig it n um bers from the ra n d o m n u m b e r tab le to id en tify th e ten p e o p le in the first g ro u p .0 4.0 3. the re se a rc h e r m u st o b ta in a sam p le th a t b e h a v e s like a ra n d o m sam p le. (If the n u m b er is g re a te r than 20.

.0 8 4 8 and th e sa m p le has p ro d u c e d p = . T h e d istrib u tio n sh o u ld be re lativ ely u n ifo rm w ith m ean a n d sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n ció se to those g iv en in p art a. the p ro cess sh o u ld be ch eck ed .15 by ch an ce.708/ \[Á = .8 7 a T h e th eo retical m ean and sta n d ard d ev ia tio n o f the sa m p lin g d istrib u tio n o f x w h en ti = 4 are p = 3. O n e can o b tain an u p p e r b o u n d on th e p ro b a b ility o f this p a rtic u la r type o f e rro r by c a lc u la tin g P ( p > .0 3 2 .15 w h en p = . U C L = . the p ro c e ss sh o u ld be ch eck ed .0848 .U C L = p + 3 j — — — = -032 + n LCL = p .8 3 a T h e av erag e p ro p o rtio n o f in o p e ra b le c o m p o n e n ts is _ _ 6+ 7h P ~ h5 _ 75 _ ]0 50(15) _ 7 5 0 ~~ a n d the c o n tro l lim its are and I f su b se q u e n t sam p les d o no t stay w ith in the lim its. 7 .854 b-c A n sw ers w ill vary fro m stu d en t to stu d en t. b F ro m p a rt a. w e m u st have p > .3 and P(1 ■/ 100 P) = .0848 an d L C L = 0 . 7 . 7 .3 n If su b seq u en t sam p les d o n o t stay w ith in the lim its.5 and a / y [ ñ = 1. U CL = .7 9 A n sw e rs w ill vary fro m stu d en t to stu d en t.0 8 4 8 ).2273 a n d L C L = 0 . c A n erro n e o u s c o n c lu sió n w ill h av e o cc u rre d if in fact p < . P ay in g c a sh fo r o p in io n s w ill not n ec e ssa rily p ro d u ce a ran d o m sam p le o f o p in io n s o f all P ep si and C o k e d rin k ers.

0588 \ 100 V 100 b 1 .96 a S E = 1 .96. b e c a u se the sam p lin g e rro r w as re p o rted u sin g the m áx im u m m a rg in o f e rro r u sin g p = . 9 V 1. 9 6 = 1 .098 1 . T h e m arg in o f erro r is 1.0 3 1 \ n \ 1000 o r ± 3 .0 5 8 8 V 100 T h e larg est m argin o f e rro r o c c u rs w h en p = .055 V 5000 F o r the estím ate o f p g iv en as p = x /n . — = .96-^ L . — = .9 6 x (sta n d a rd e rro r o f the estim a to r).5 5 4 V 50 b 1.0898 6 = 100 e . 9 V 6 100 = .1 7 5 y 500 c 1 .8° an d the m arg in o f e rro r w ith 5 = 17. T h e p o in t estím ate o f p is x = 39.9 6 .96 = .96 = 1 .9 6 . a d f 1. 9 6 . a 1 .9 6 J — ^ — = .5 : 1.4 ¿ = 4 . In th is e h ap te r./—^ — = . w h ere o can be e stim a te d b y th e sam p le yjn stan d ard d ev iatio n s fo r larg e v alú es o f n.3 . 9 6 .lS and th e m a rg in o f e rro r is n ap p ro x im ately 1.96 = .1 % A po in t estím ate fo r th e m ean len g th o f tim e is x = 1 9 .96 J— n E = 1.9 6 .f 7 8 ^ 2 2 ^ = . the m arg in o f e rro r is 1. U se the e stim a te d v alu é g iv en in the ex e rc ise fo r p.8: Large-Sample Estimation T h e m arg in o f e rro r in e stim a tio n p ro v id e s a p ractical u p p e r b o u n d to the d ifferen ce b etw een a p a rtic u la r e stím ate a n d the p a ra m e te r w h ich it e stim a te s. the m arg in o f e rro r is 1 .96 S E = 1. w ith m arg in o f e rro r .0898 c 1.96 = .7 6 8 yfn yjn V50 X T h e p o in t estím ate fo r p is g iv en as p = — = .96 S E = 1.026 V 1000 b T h e p o ll’s m arg in o f e rro r d o es n o t ag ree w ith the re su lts o f p art a.5 .2 and n = 50 is 1.9 6 -4 = = 1. — V n .

x = 3 .4 3 1 50 c or .7 a n d s = .030 500 or .^ = l .6 4 5 y¡n w h ere <7 can be estim a te d by the sam p le stan d a rd d e v ia tio n 5 fo r larg e v a lú es o f n.y r .96 = .96 | . 72 .2 { -9 S ) . H en ee...96 8 .331 In terv als c o n stru cte d in this m a n n e r w ill e n d o s e th e tru e v alu é o f p 9 0 % o f the tim e in rep eated sam p lin g .2 7 T h e w idth o f a 95% co n fid e n ce in terv al fo r p is g iv en as 1 . ! 66 . 9 6 .5 8 —¿ = = 3 . w e are fairly c e rta in th a t this p a rtic u la r in te rv a l c o n ta in s f j . 9 9 % o f all in terv als c o n stru c te d in th is m a n n e r w ill e n d o s e / i .9 0 4 •Jn V 40 In rep e a te d sam pling.797 < u < .84 + 1 . H en ee. H enee. an d the a p p ro x im a te 9 5 % " n 500 c o n fid en ce in terv al for p is p ± 1.5 8 -4 = = 3 .1./— = . 136 ± .5 ¿ = 1.9 6 —¡Í £ = = 2 (1 .4 6 9 < / i < 22. the w id th is 2 '■9 6 7 m 8. 8 . I > /2 0 0 j c W h en n = 4 0 0 .) 8. 136 ± 1.9 6 .2 0 4 or 3 . yjn a W h en n = 1 0 0 .7 ± . 9 6 . the w idth is 2[ 1 . 106 < / ? < .31 = 2 ( i -9 6 ) = 3 -9 2 - ) . th e sam p le m u st be ran d o m ly selec te d .8 4 ± .883 ^ or 2 1 .7 ± 2 .0 1 .2 3 S E = 1 .35 a T h e p o in t estim ate o f p is p = — == .9 ± .5 and a = . 1 3 6 . w e are fairly c o n fid e n t th a t th e se p a rtic u la r in terv als w ill e n d o s e p .L 9 6 - W ith n = 40.6 4 5 . the w idth is 2 L 96j y b W h en n = 2 0 0 .0 4 3 V 125 J 3 44 — = 2 1 . a 9 9 % c o n fid e n c e in te rv a l fo r ¡u is ap p ro x im ated by x ± 2 . 9 6 . (In o rd e r fo r this to be true. a .3 6 (:8 6 4 ) = .4 9 6 < lí < 3 .3 8 6 ) = 2 .86 yjn yjn >/30 T h e 9 0% co n fid en ce interv al fo r/y g iv en as 3c ± 1 .^ r « 1 .7 7 2 .

= 0 is n o t in the c o n fid e n ce interv al. /y. 9 6 j M * + « « l v 7 v 365 298 2 .1 4 2 d or .324 V 365 b T h e p a ra m e te r to be estim a te d is / y . . the m ean sco re fo r the p o stte st fo r all trad itio n al classe s.9 6 4 = = 1 6 . S in ce th e v a lu é //.5 ± ./ y 2 . 9 6 . fo r B A C C v ersu s trad itio n al classe s.5 ± 1 .142 S ince the c o n fid en ce interv al in p a rt c h as tw o p o sitiv e e n d p o in ts. 8 . it d o e s not co n tain the valu é /y. the (1 .5 .6 7 6 < /y < 19. it is not lik ely th at the m ean s are e q u al.f i 2 < 5.710 < /y < 17. = / y . Y ou can a c c o m p lish th is by (1 ) in creasin g the sam p le size n.6 9 0 b o r 4./ y 2 ) < 3. o r (2 ) d ecrea sin g Za/2 by d e c reasin g th e c o n fid e n ce co efficien t.1 6 . 8.a ) 100% c o n fid e n c e ijiterv al is (3c. 8 . H en ee. . . the a p p ro x im ate "2 9 5 % c o n fid en ce in te rv a l is l¡ 38 4 14 (1 2 .5 ./ y 2 = 0 .0 ± 1 . ) ± z a/2 — + — 1 ".7 .290 yfn V 29 8 c N o w w e are in tereste d in th e d iffe re n c e b e tw een p o stte st m ean s. T h e 95% c o n fid e n c e interv al is ap p ro x im ate ly 5 6 96 3c ± 1 . 5 ± 1 .9 9 . It ap p e a rs that there is a real d iffe re n c e in the m ean scores. .7 9 0 o r 15.8 .9 6 J — + — = 5 .7 . th e m ean sco re fo r th e p o stte st fo r all B A C C classes.b In o rd e r to in c rea se the a c c u ra cy o f the co n fid e n c e in terv al./ y .61 < / / . T h e 9 5 % c o n fid e n ce in terv al is a p p ro x im ately I ± 1 . . .8 2 4 o r 1 7 . ~ /y 2 is ap p ro x im ately ( .18.4 7 R efer to E x ercise 8. 9 6 . . it is no t lik e ly that /y.x . ± l .^ = 1 8 . . E stim a tin g o \ and o \ w ith s] and s 2 .4 ) ± 1 . .4 3 a T h e p a ra m e te r to be estim a te d is / y .t = = 1 6 . Y ou sh o u ld c o n c lu d e th a t th ere is a d iffe re n ce in the tw o p o p u la tio n m eans. y o u m u st d e c re a se its w idth.5 ± . 73 .9 6 -? = £ L = 1 8 .3 ± ./ y . .3 9 a W h en e stim a tin g th e d iffe re n c e /y. T h e 9 5 % co n fid e n c e in terv al fo r /y.858 < (/y.

d S ince n eith er co n fid e n c e in terv al c o n ta in s th e valué //. T h is w o u ld be o f in terest to th e ex p erim en ter. .a T h e 9 5 % c o n fid en c e in terv al fo r //. th en it is no t u n lik e ly th at H\ c o u ld eq ual / / 2 .9 6 0 N eith er o f the in terv als co n ta in the v alu é ( / v . Y o u sh o u ld co n c lu d e th a t th ere is a d iffe re n c e in the a v erag e ro o m rates fo r the M a rrio tt an d W y n d h a m a n d a lso fo r the R ad isso n and the W y n d h a m chains.1 6 ± . ) < 16./ / .96. im p ly in g no d ifferen c e in the a v erag e ro o m rates fo r the tw o h o tels. 800 ' n 2 640 c o n fid en ce interval is -./ ¿ 2 ) < . .0 4 0 < (//.0 4 3 b or . 74 ..1 5 ± 7 . it is n o t likely that the m eans are eq u al. 1 0 ± 6 .667 T h e 9 9% co n fid en ce in terv al fo r or is ap p ro x im a te ly .6 6 7 b .5 1 a C alcú late A x 337 x 374 = — = 1— = ./ / 2) = 0 .2 2 . 8 ./ / 2 is ap p ro x im ate ly (170 —160) ± 1. . A ssu m in g that fíle sam p les are ran d o m . th ese c o n d itio n s are m et in th is ex ercise.5 8 .42 a n d p 2 = — = -— = . . —/ / 2 ) = 0 is c o n tain ed in the co n fid e n c e in terv al. I f (//.2 0 3 117 T he tw o binom ial sam p les m u st be ra n d o m an d in d e p e n d e n t a n d the sa m p le sizes m ust be large en o u g h th at the d istrib u tio n s o f p x a n d p 2 are ap p ro x im a te ly no rm al. T h e ap p ro x im a te 90% n.0 4 0 c or 3. = 0 .7 .333 < (//.

51 .7 .45 a n d p . = — — = ..5 5 a W ith p. 5 8 .645 v ' V 180 .5 1 1 2 .6 3 F o llo w the in stru ctio n s in th e M y P erso n al T ra in e r section . .p 2 .0 9 9 or 1 100 . .5 8 jM + M . 2 5 9 In terv als c o n stru c te d in th is m a n n e r w ill e n d o s e the true v alu é o f p.p 2) ± l . T h e a n sw e rs are sh o w n in the table below .49 ( .p 2 9 5 % o f the tim e in re p e a te d sam p lin g .~ 2— = .5 4 . . . it is lik ely that p | . .9 6 4 1 «> 9 7 .. 0 5 V n Q u an titativ e O ne 1 .0 6 1 . = — = ----.1 6 1 .. 5 . 8 . T h e ap p ro x im ate 90% 1 n. 0 6 1 < ( p .4 5 . = .5 1 .7 and P7 = — = -----.= .5 4 ) ± 1.6 4 5 j ^ + (. B p~.p 2) < -. T h e ap p ro x im a te 9 9 % c o n fid e n c e 1 1001 1001 in terv al is (A -p . 54 C a lcú late p.p 2 . — i------^ + — i---v y V 1001 1001 .5 9 r 120 x.0 5 8 b or .45 .= .p 2 < 0 P| < p 2 .05 S o lv e th is in e q u a lity S a m p le size n >385 1. T h is w o u ld indicate th at the p ro p o rtio n o f ad u lts w ho claim to be fan s is h ig h e r in N o v e m b e r th an in M arch . T y p e o f D a ta B inom ial O ne or Two S a m p le s O ne M a r g in o f e rro r pora B ound.96 ^ ^ < . we are fairly certain th at th is p a rtic u la r in terv al e n d o s e s p. 8 . . H en ee..5 5 ) . 1 1 8 < ( p .p 2) < . 180 2 n2 100 c o n fid en c e in terv al is ( p .8 .9 6 -i- (7 * 1 0 yjn 75 2 1 .0 0 2 S ince the in terv al in p art a c o n ta in s o n ly n eg a tiv e v alú es o f p .) i2 .

9 6 -7 = = 1.+ ^ n2 V5 0 50 ( //.6 4 5 -4 = = 2 9 . 2 + 2 .1— + — V n n <5 ^ > 3 5 9 9g 0 f ^ = ^ = 3 6 0 ^ F o r the d iffe re n ce /y. & ^ nx \ r n2 £ 05 ^ y f ñ > —— — .63 b S in ce the d iffe re n c e in the m ean s is p o sitiv e. nx= n 2 = n .33 and is c a lc u la te d as K s. and B = . ^ 8 .8 3 a T h e po in t estím ate o f p is x = 29.1 ± . = 1086 1 2 T h e stan d ard d ev iatio n is estim a te d as R / 4 = 1 0 4 /4 = 2 6 .1 an d the m arg in o f e rro r in e stim a tio n w ith 5 = 3.0 0 8.7 8 n o r « .3 7 or ’ ( jjx .9555 y fñ y fñ y ¡6 4 .4 .^ L = 29.05 . T hen z a/2 x (s td e rro r o f p x. S in ce w e have no p rio r k n o w led g e ab o u t p x and p 2 .f i 2 in the p o p u la tio n m ean s th is y e a r a n d te n y e ars ag o . in the p o p u la tio n m ean s fo r tw o q u a n tita tiv e p o p u latio n s. .7 6 n a > 2 .9 0 2 .//./ / .58.645 a n d is c a lc u la te d as ( * . 8 .05 8 .J 2) + 1.7 5 os V => n > 1 0 8 5 .58.x .. ) .6 7 F o r the d iffe re n c e p x . the p a ra m e ter o f in te re st is p¡ .8.1 ± 1 ./ y .2 . ) > 5. = « . we assu m e th e la rg e st p o ssib le v ariatio n . w h ich o c cu rs if p x = p 2 = .9 6 -? = * 1 .33A/------+ ■ V1 1 0 .1— + — < 5 => n.3 3 í— + — =(73 —63) —2.8 0 2 yfn V 64 76 o r 2 8 . and . 2.1 0 ) + 1 .5 .p 2) < B . b T h e ap p ro x im ate 9 0 % co n fid en c e interv al is x ± 1 .9 and n = 64 is 3.9 1.96(7. the 9 9% lo w er co n fid e n ce bound u ses z 01 = 2.6 4 5 . the 9 5% u p p e r co n fid en ce b o u n d u ses z ^ = 1.96 = .) < 4 In th is ex ercise. = 1 .p 2 .6 4 5 J |.2 9 8 < p < 2 9 . y o u can c o n c lu d e th at th ere has been a d e crease in the a v erag e p er-c a p ita b e e f c o n su m p tio n o v e r th e last ten years. .545 \ n.2 ^ nx n2 _ 252 28: \ 400 400 ( x .5 8 V Í3 5 2 2.71 or + ^ = ( 1 2 .

w e are fairly certain th at th is p a rtic u la r interv al en d o ses /y .1 .p 2) < .7 5 ) ± 1 .7 2 3 o r n > 2 3 4 8 .^ = 2 9 . = .9 5 A ssu m e th at o = 2.In te rv a ls c o n stru c te d in th is m a n n e r e n d o s e the true v alu é o f /y 9 0 % o f th e tim e in rep e a te d sa m p lin g .95 . o ~ 3 . .5. . c T h e a p p ro x im a te 9 0 % lo w er c o n fid en c e b o u n d is 1 .p 2 a re n eg ativ e. T h e re fo re . solve 1.4 8 o r /y > 28 .025 8. since all the p ro b ab le v alú es o f p. Y o u sh o u ld no t co n c lu d e th a t th ere is a d iffe re n c e in th e p ro p o rtio n o f w o m en an d m en o n W all S treet w ho h av e ch ild ren .0 2 5 4~n >.1 .5 and p : = . and 1 .41 or ai > 1083 .5 . n > 1082.0 6 3 c or + n2 356 .7 5 .5.8 7 A ssu m in g m áx im u m v a ria tio n w ith p = .645J .5 a n d the d e sire d b o u n d is . the p ro p o rtio n o f m en o f W all S treet w h o have ch ild ren a p p e a rs to be la rg e r than th e p ro p o rtio n o f w om en.9 .M ± 1. T hen 1 .96 n.9 \ .^ < . 2 8 ^ = 2 8 . T h en p . 9 6 —j= < B ■Jn => 3.0 4 o r n > 9 7 77 ..1 8 7 S ince the v alu é p. (. 2 8 . 3 1 3 < ( p .5 yjn 4 ñ > 15. iW M = 3 2 .a = .288 => n > 2 3 3 .5 .9 6 M + v ’ \ 482 -. w e m u st so lv e fo r n in the fo llo w in g d inequality : cr \ ..9 6 ^ p < ..9 1 a D efin e sa m p le #1 as the sa m p le o f 4 8 2 w om en a n d sam p le # 2 as the sam p le o f 3 5 6 m en. 9 b —j= < .4 8 -Jn V 64 _ W ith B = . 9 6 < B y¡n 1 .5 y¡n => n > 9 6 .2 5 ± . . In fact. 8.p 2 = 0 is n o t in the co n fid e n c e in te rv a l. 1 . it is u n lik ely that p l = p 2 . b T h e ap p ro x im a te 9 5 % c o n fid e n c e in terv al is ( P \ .

7 6 o r « > 1 8 2 5 8 . the sa m p le size m u st in cre ase b y 4.9 6 Í 2 ( \ 8 ) V « > ----------------.8 as a c o n se rv ativ e e stím a te fo r p .3 3 -4 = = 2 .p í^ = .111 T h e ap p ro x im ate 98% co n fid e n ce interv al fo r p is T ± 2 . y[4n 2^ y fñ H en ee. 8.0 4 .08 « r 1 . in th is case.3 . the new h alf-w id th o f th e c o n fid e n c e in terv al is l.p í í ! < .6 9 4 < p < 2 .08 fo r the b in o m ial e stim a to r p . w h ere S E ( p ) = A — V « p = . 1 . 9 6 . b In o rd e r to cu t the interv al in half. 8 .í \ . I f this is d o n e. F o r this ex ercise.2 and that th e d e sired b o u n d is .7 0 5 ± 2 .087 . sol ve fo r « in th e e q u atio n 1 .1 07 a T h e ap p ro x im ate 9 5 % c o n fid e n c e in terv al fo r p is í 529 I ± 1 .7 0 5 ± . 125 yjn V 69 or 2 .1 0 3 => « V ^ = L 9 6 ( '4 > = 7 8 . If . ® ^ = + .( l .9 9 a I f you use p = .9 6 . the m arg in o f e rro r is ap p ro x im ately ± 1 .9 6 .9 6 -í= = . B = . 9 6 .01.1 1 5 2 . the n ew sa m p le size is 4 ( 6 9 ) = 2 7 6 .4 => « = 6 1 4 6 .0 1 1 V« V 36 or 8 .5 6 o r « = 614 7 .= = = 2 .01 « > 1 8 2 4 .01 => yjn > í = 4 2 .9 6 2 ± .0 1 V 8 .= > « > 9 .0 2 9 V 750 b T o re d u c e the m argin o f e rro r in p a rt a to ± .8 3 7 < p < 3. H en ee.96A ^ ~ < B => 1 .0 1 .7 1 6 . 9 6 . 3 3 ^ 2 = 2 .7 2 .= = 2 .9 6 .8 .08 or « > 97.9 6 J — < . 78 or « > 9 6 .9 6 2 ± 1 .01 It is assu m ed that p = . w e have 1.

bu t the w id th s o f all th e in te rv a ls sh o u ld be the sam e. In creasin g th e sa m p le size re su lts in a sm a lle r sta n d a rd e rro r and in a n a rro w e r interval. 79 . y o u o b tain m o re in fo rm atio n and can o b ta in this m ore p re c ise e stím a te o f (J w ith o u t sacrificin g co n fíd en ce.8 .121 U se the E x p lo r in g C o n fíd e n c e In te rv a ls applet. c B y in c re a sin g th e sa m p le size n. 8 .1 1 7 U se the In ter p r e tin g C o n fíd en ce In te r v a ls a p p let. M o st o f the sim u la tio n s w ill sh o w b etw een 8 an d 10 in te rv als th a t w o rk co rrectly . A n sw e rs w ill v ary . a-b M o v e the slid er on th e rig h t sid e o f th e a p p let to ch an g e the sam p le size.

c S im ila r to p art a. T h a t is.5 8 (w h ich y o u can also w rite as |z| > 2.5 8 o r z < . 81 .9: Large-Sample Tests of Hypotheses a T h e c ritic a l v alu é th at se p a ra te s the reje c tio n and n o n rejectio n re g io n s fo r a rig h t- tailed te st b a sed o n a z-sta tistic w ill be a v alu é o f z (c alled za ) su ch that / >( z > z a ) = t f = . 9 6 ). w ith a / 2 = . w ith the re je c tio n reg ió n in th e lo w e r tail o f the z d istrib u tio n .96 .005 .2 .2 .2 .01 .9 6 (w h ich y o u can also w rite as Id > 1. d S im ila r to p art b .58 ). T h e nuil h y p o th esis H 0 w ill be re je c te d if z > 2 .33 (see the fig u re b elo w ).05 .025 in the tw o tails o f th e z d istrib u tio n in F ig u re 9 .3 3 . T h e nuil h y p o th e sis H 0 w ill be re je cte d i f z < .1 .96 o r z < . T h e nuil h y p o th e sis H 0 w ill be re je c te d if z > 1. so th at z 025 = 1.3 3 . T h e n uil h y p o th e sis H 0 w ill be re je c te d if z > 2. z 0I = 2. the critical v alu é fo r the reje c tio n reg ió n cu ts o ff oc¡2 = . b F o r a tw o -tailed te st w ith a = .

If a . E ith e r a v ery u n lik ely e v e n t h as o c cu rred . in fact. b T h e best e stim a to r fo r f i is the sam p le a v erag e x . a W e w ant to p ro v e the a ltern a tiv e h y p o th e sis th at /v is.3. the critical v alu é o f z th at se p arates the re je c tio n and n o n -re jec tio n reg io n s w ill be a v alu é (d en o te d by z0 ) such that P ( z > z n ) = a = .05.05 T h at is. H en ee.3. cr 5 . th e p a ra m e te r o f in te re st is fJ .05 Reject H0 c T h e stan d a rd e rro r o f the m ean is fo u n d u sin g the sam p le sta n d ard d ev ia tio n 5 to ap p ro x im ate the p o p u latio n sta n d a rd d ev ia tio n c r : n r. a .3 and the nuil h y p o th e sis is H 0 : / / = 2 . the a lte rn a tiv e h y p o th e sis is H a :/y > 2 . g re a te r then 2. H 0 w ill be re je c te d if z > 1 -645 . z 0 = 1. H en ee. the p o p u latio n m ean. an d the test sta tistic is Izñ . o r the h y p o th esized m ean is in co rrect. " a /J ¡ w h ich rep rese n ts the d ista n c e (m e asu re d in un its o f sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n s) fro m x to the h y p o th esized m ean /y .In this ex ercise. if th is v alu é is larg e in a b so lu te v alu é. T h e o b je c tiv e o f the e x p erim e n t is to sh o w th a t the m ean e x c e e d s 2. o n e o f tw o co n clu sio n s m ay be d raw n . H enee..3 .29 _ . R e fer to p a rt a .645 (see b elo w ).

0 1 0 4 . calc ú la te the v alu é o f the test sta tistic u sin g th e in fo rm atio n c o n ta in e d in the sam p le. 9.7414 . b u t n o t at the 1% level.05 . is a p p ro x im a te d u sin g the sa m p le stan d ard d ev ia tio n 5 . o .1 9 T h e h y p o th e sis o f in terest is on e-tailed: H 0 :/A = 0 v ersu s Ha ://.1 8 / >/35 w ith p -v a lu e = ^ ( |z | > -33) = 2 (. T h is w ould be th e m o st b e n e fic ia l w ay fo r the c o m p e tito r to State th ese c o n clu sio n s.( the nuil h y p o th e sis sh o u ld not be reje cte d .049 T h e o b se rv ed v alu é o f the test statistic. z = 2 . S in ce the /?-value is g re a te r th an . u se t g u id elin e s fo r statistical sig n ifican ce in S ectio n 9 .3 7 0 7 ) = . N o te that the v alu é o f the tru e sta n d a rd d e v ia tio n .0 1 -1 = 33 .d T o c o n d u c t the test. H0 can be re je c te d and y o u can c o n c lu d e th a t th e a v e ra g e score im p ro v e m e n t is less than claim ed .( a n d . b I f a = .//2 < 0 T h e test statistic.v alu é.3 . a¡4ñ s/yfñ . T h ere is su fficie n t e v id e n c e to in d íc ate th at p > 2 . 9 . T o d raw a c o n c lu sió n fro m th e p .05.11 a In o rd e r to m ak e sure th at the av erag e w eig h t w as o n e p o u n d . —Jl^ = 0 .2 . falls in th e re je c tio n re g ió n a n d ti n uil h y p o th e sis is rejected . c I f you w o rk ed fo r the P rinc eto n R e view . the test resu lts are sig n ifícan t at the 5% lev el. is 83 . calc u la te d u n d er the a ssu m p tio n th a t //.0 4 . it w ould be m o re b en e ficia l to concludi th at th ere w as insufficient evid e n ce a t the 1% level to c o n c lu d e th a t the a v e ra g e scoi im p ro v e m e n t is less th an claim ed .3 1 ) = .1 5 a T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 :/y = 110 versus H a : /y < 110 and the te st statistic is x-H o O \[ñ = 1 0 7 -1 1 0 _ s/yfñ 1 3 /V i 00 w ith p -v a lu e = P ( z < . 9 . y o u w o u ld test H0 :// = 1 Ha :p * 1 versus b -c T h e test statistic is z = x-Mo a *~Po a /y fñ _ s/yfñ 1 . S in ce th e p -v a lu e is b e tw e e n .3 . T he m a n a g e r sh o u ld re p o rt th at th ere is in su ffic ien t e v id en c e to in d ícate th at the m ean is d iffe re n t fro m 1..

the nuil h y p o th e sis is re je cte d .05 . H 0 is n o t reje c te d . S in ce the o b se rv e d v alu é o f z d o e s no t fall in the reje c tio n reg ió n . the 9 5 % c o n fid e n c e interv al fo r Pj .w ith the unk n o w n cr2 an d a \ e stim a te d by s f an d s \ . S in ce th is p -v a lu e is g reater th an .p 2 ^ 0 . T h ere is in su fficien t e v id e n c e to in d icate that the m ean fo r p o p u la tio n 1 is sm alle r th an the m ean fo r p o p u la tio n 2.05. it is not lik ely th at the d iffe re n c e w ill be m ore th an 5 p p m . is z < . .5 5 < ( p ..0238 .3 . . = 0 . resp ectiv ely .p . a T h e h y p o th e sis o f in te re st is tw o-tailed : H0 : p . .05. 2 5 Since th e v alu é p . T h e re je c tio n reg ió n w ith a = . p -v a lu e ap p ro a ch : C a lc ú la te p -v a lu e = P ( z < . .1 .p 2 = 0 and the test sta tistic is v ersu s Ha :p . T h ere is e v id en c e to in d ica te a d iffe re n ce in the m ean lead lev els fo r the tw o se c tio n s o f the city. T h e stu d en t can use o n e o f tw o m e th o d s fo r d e c isió n m aking.6 4 5 . C ritica l v a lu é a p p ro a ch .p 2 * 0 T h e test statistic. = .p . ) < . is w ith p -v a lu e = P ( |z | > 2 .0 1 19) = . b F ro m S ectio n 8. is a p p ro x im ately -1 .0918 . an d hen ee the statistical sig n ifícan ce o f the d iffe re n c e is n o t o f p ractical im p o rta n c e to the en g in ee rs.2 6 ) = 2 ( ..p 2 = 0 v ersu s H a :p .p .9 ± 1 . S in ce the p -v a lu e is less th an .6 5 c or . a T h e h y p o th e sis o f in te re st is tw o -tailed : H0 : p .p 2 = 5 o r p 1 . the nuil h y p o th e sis is n o t re je cte d .6.1 . . 3 3 ) = .p . ca lc u la te d u n d e r the assu m p tio n th at //. T h ere is in su fficien t e v id e n c e to in d ic ate th at the m ean fo r p o p u la tio n 1 is sm a lle r th a n the m ean fo r p o p u latio n 2..5 is n o t in th e co n fíd e n c e in terv al in part b.

= p 2 .0 0 1 4 . so th at p = — = — = .1 1 .2 .71 Since th e v alu é p ^ . . S in ce th e p .1 8 ) = 2 (.^ 2 = 0 v e rsu s H a -Mi-Mi 560 and the te st statistic is _ (x. b S in ce the p -v a lu e = . the nuil h y p o th e sis is rejected .05).v a lu e is b etw ee n .x2) . T h ere is e v id en c e to in d ícate a d iffe re n c e in the m ean co n c e n tra tio n s fo r th ese tw o ty p e s o f sites.6 (p a rt c) x 35 F o r the se co n d test in p art a.0 2 6 4 ./ y .p 2 = 0 d o es n o t fall in the in terv a l in p a rt b .. 8 6 + 1. b u t n o t hig hly significant.01). 9.05.72 | .2 2 ) = 2 ( 1 .9 8 6 8 ) = .6 versus Ha : p H 0 : p = .05.1 .3 9 _ js [ + s[ n.8 1-22 n.7 4 2 V 65 65 w ith p -v a lu e = P (\z\ > 2 .0 _ 9 8 . the nuil h y p o th e sis is rejected . S in ce th e p . c o n firm in g the c o n clu sió n in p art a.5 v ersu s H a : p < .01 an d .0264.3 3 a T h e tw o sets o f h y p o th esis b o th in v o lve a d ifferen t b in o m ia l p a ra m e te r p: H 0 : p = . —/ / 2 ) < —. T h ere is ev id en c e to in d icate a d iffe re n c e in the m ean te m p e ra tu re s fo r m en v e rsu s w o m en . n2 „ 22 I.4 6 6 7 . b T h e 9 5 % co n fid e n c e interv al for/y.9 4 .15 or —3. a n d the re su lts are sig n ific an t. b u t n o t at the 1% lev el (p -v alu e > .9 6 J — + — v 1 V 36 26 . we can reject H0 a t the 5% level (p -v a lu e < .2 .0 0 0 7 ) = . w e d ecla re the resu lts statistically si g n ific a n t. the n 75 te st statistic is b 85 . U sin g the g u id elin e s fo r sig n ifica n ce g iv en in S ectio n 9. 9 .5 (p a rt b) . + n2 = _31g 2 . 9 4 .01 < (//. T h e re is ev id en c e to ind ícate th at the m ean s are d iffe re n t. is ap p ro x im a tely +~ (*i “ * 2 ) ± 1-96 n2 V "i ( . it is n o t lik ely that /y. x = 35 and n = 75 . . 8 ) ± 1 .8 2 V 36 + 26 w ith p -v a lu e = P ( |z | > 3 .2 9 a T h e h y p o th esis o f in terest is tw o-tailed: h o : ^ i .\ a lu e is le ss th an .3 o f the text.B -^ )-0 .9 8 .

40 v ersu s H a : p * . w e c o u ld c a lc ú la te p -v a lu e = 2 P ( z < . T h e h y p o th esis o f in terest is H 0 : p = .40 x 114 w ith p = — = -----. the te st statistic is ai 80 z = P S P ^ = ..10.6 (. 4 0 _ n] 1.3 4 7 2 .45 H a : p * . so th at p = — = — = .4 . T h ere is in su fficien t e v id en c e to d isp u te th e n e w sp a p e r’s claim . the test sta tistic is ai 300 P -P o _ M o -3 8 .7 1 ) = 2 (.2 8 1 0 .55) V 80 T h e rejectio n reg ió n is tw o -ta ile d a = . 86 ..= .0 5 is | z |> 1.40 (.6 5 3 3 . ^ T h e h y p o th esis o f in terest is H 0 : p = . w e calcú late p -v a lu e = P ( z < . th e test n 75 statistic is c _ _ P . S in ce th is p -v a lu e is g re ate r than .6 _ n i M o /. o r |z¡ > 2 .z = PZPg = A 6 V -¿ = M o n _ 5S -5 ( '5 ) V 75 S ince no v alué o f a is sp ec ifie d in ad v an ce. S in ce the p -v a lu e is g re a te r th an .4 5 Polo " - 90 . S ince this p -v a lu e is g reater than .4 7 7 8 . the nuil h y p o th e sis is n o t reje cte d . T h e re is in su fficien t e v id e n c e to co n tra d ic t the claim .60) 300 T h e rejectio n reg ió n w k h a = . the nuil h y p o th esis is not re je c te d ..5 8 a n d H 0 is no t re je c ted .3 8 .45 (.) T h e re is in su fficien t e v id e n c e to in d ic ate th at the p ro p o rtio n o f h o u se h o ld s w ith at least one d o g is d ifferen t from that re p o rted by the H u m an e Society. x = 4 9 and n = 7 5 .P o _ .05..6 5 3 3 -.45 v ersu s x 32 W ith p = — = — = .0 1 .4 ) 75 w ith p -v alu e = P ( |z | > .4 0 . x 49 F o r the first test in p art a .5 8 ) = . 1736) = .9 4 ) = 2 (.2 3 8 9 ) = . (A ltern ativ ely .96 and the nuil h y p o th e sis is n o t re je c te d . T h ere is in su fficie n t e v id e n c e to c o n tra d ict the claim . th e nuil h y p o th esis is not re je c te d .10.

is |z| > 1. p . w ith a = . i —O -2 1 4 ~ -2 5 yj. p 0 = -----. b F ro m S ectio n 8. + n 2 C a lc ú la te p.p .221 ( .51 T h e h y p o th e sis o f in terest is H 0 : p. . 9.1 4 ^/.p 2 < 0 + n 2P i n.4 7 or +M 50 50 . ) < .05 . T h e re is e v id en c e o f a d ifferen c e in th e p ro p o rtio n o f su rv iv o rs fo r th e tw o g ro u p s. + n 2 5 6 + 32 T h e test statistic is then T=h z h í —1 + v n. = — = .p 2 ^ 0 C a lcú late p. T h e test sta tistic is 5 0 + 50 then P '-P > T- - -3 6 .9 6 M +M n2 V ni ( .214 .25 .. .p 2 = 0 v ersu s Ha : p.60 l. . .2 y T h e rejectio n reg ió n .227 .60 a n d p = _ 18 + 3 0 = 4 3 .p . + n 2 121 + 199 T h e te st statistic is then z = I w 1 1 —+— «2/ . -7 6 9 .p 2 = 0 v ersu s H a : p. = . 0 5 T h e h y p o th e sis o f in terest is H 0 : p.f l+ jJ l V V-4 8 (-5 2 ) ( 1/ 5 ° -+ 1/ 5 0 ) n2 J Ui T h e rejectio n reg ió n .2 4 ± .4 5 a T h e h y p o th e sis o f in te re st is: H 0 : P\ .5 9 8 = 3 .= . w ith or = .7 6 9 .6 625 (..96 an d H 0 is n o t re je c te d .. T h e se resu lts m atch th e c o n c lu sio n s o f E x e rc ise 8.05 .6 6 2 5 . 56 32 n.9 v 7 V -. 121 199 n . = 0 v ersu s H a : p.6 0 ) ± 1 . an d p = + *2 = + ^ = .5 9 8 .7.1 . is z < .7 7 3 ) (l/5 6 + 1/32) ™ n . p 1 = — = .p ..4 3 < ( p . = — = . = . . > 0 93 119 x +x 93 + 119 C a lcú late p.53. a n d p = — .9 . . the a p p ro x im ate 9 5 % c o n fíd e n ce in te rv al is ( Á -P :)± 1 .3 6 .3 3 7 5 ) (1/121 + 1/199) 87 .3 6 . T h e re is in su fficien t e v id e n c e to in d icate a d iffe re n c e in th e p ro p o rtio n o f re d M & M s fo r the p lain an d p e a n u t v arieties.6 4 5 an d H 0 is re je c ted .= ---------------= .1 9 9 .

9.p : = 0 v ersu s H a : p. . and p = 200 K ni + n 2 — .6 7 T h e h y p o th esis to be tested is Hn : p.T 2) .5 9 a -b S ince it is n e ce ssa ry to p ró v e that the a v erag e pH level is less th an 7 .p : > 0 and the test statistic is ( I . be the p ro p o rtio n o f d e fe c tiv e s p ro d u ce d by m ach in e A and p ./ ? = ^ ( r e je c t H 0 w hen H 0 is f a l s e ) .05. .9 4 ) ( V 2 0 0 + 1 /2 0 0 ) T h e rejectio n reg ió n . n 2 •Q 8~ 0 4 = 1.E = a /4 7 t s/J ¡ -. n.2/V 3Ó a n d the reje c tio n reg ió n w ith a = .1 . z = . W e co n c lu d e th a t the a v erag e pH lev el is less th an 7 .96 and H 0 is n o t re jec ted .6 4 5 .63 L et p. 9 . 1 1 N \p q — H----n.5 d v ersu s H a : p < 7. A s p g e ts farth er from p 0 . the h y p o th e sis to be tested is o n e-tailed : H n : p = 7.p 2 * 0 = ..0 8 . T h e h y p o th esis to be tested is H(>: P\ ~ Pi .w ith p -v a lu e = P { z > 3 .2 . .55 T h e p o w er o f th e test is 1 . is |z| > 1.9 9 9 2 = . = 200 H a : p. T h ere is ev id en ce to co n firm the re s e a rc h e r's co n clu sió n . T h e re is in su fficien t e v id e n c e to in d ícate th at the m ach in es are p erfo rm in g d iffe re n tly in term s o f the p ercen tag e o f d e fe c tiv e s b ein g p ro d u ced . = —— = . falls in the re je c tio n reg ió n an d H0 is rejected . the resu lts are re p o rte d as h ig h ly sig n ific a n t at the 1% lev el o f sig n ifica n ce .5 . S in ce the p -v a lu e is less th an .0 4 ..5 .0008 . .0 v ersu s C a lcú late p.06 . 9 .4 7 7 .0 _ n.1 4 ) = 1 .5 T h e test statistic is 1 Z _ ÍL x x . 1 Q -8 V 40 88 40 _ /l . p .5 . T h e o b se rv ed valu é. w ith a = . T h e 2 0 0 + 200 test statistic is then . be the p ro p o rtio n o f d e fe c tiv e s p ro d u c e d by m ach in e B.684 0 6 (. the p o w e r o f the te st in creases. 9.01.05 is z < .

71 T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is a H0 :/y .7 9 T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : P\ .Pi ~ 0 versus Ha : p x. H en ee. b A n a p p ro x im ate 95% c o n fid e n ce in terv al for/y. S in ce the o b se rv e d v a lu é . p .4) 1) + + 5512(.2 = 5512 1 6 124 5 .1 9 .88 9 .p2 * 0 = .05.645 a n d th e n uil h y p o th e sis is re je c te d .. z = 2 . d o e s n o t fall in the rejectio n reg ió n a n d H0 is not reje c te d .. - 13 + 5.05. and C alcú late p . w ith a = .f r ) < 18. + x 2 _ 6124(.— = . = — = . is o n e -ta ile d o r z > 1.2 /V 3 8 T h e rejec tio n reg ió n w ith a = . T h ere is su fficien t e v id en c e to in d ícate a d iffe re n c e in the tw o m eans.2 5 _ . w ith a = .3 3 .//2 = 0 v ersu s Ha >0 an d the te st statistic is T h e reje c tio n reg ió n .4 0 .88 or T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : // = 5 versus H a : // > 5 an d the te st statistic is __ x Mo a /J ñ x Mo _ s/^Jñ 7. 9 .7 5 is 7. T h e re is a d iffe re n ce in m ean yield fo r the tw o ty p e s o f spray. _ x. T h e d a ta d o n o t p ro v id e su fficien t e v id en c e to in d icate th at th e m ean p p m o f P C B s in th e p o p u latio n o f g am e b ird s e x c e e d s the F D A ’s rec o m m en d ed lim it o f 5 ppm . .12 < (//. 6 .37) 5 5 1 2 (.3 7 ) _ 11636 ^ ni + n 2 11636 ■phe te st sta tistic is then 89 .37 . is o n e -tailed o r z > 1 6 4 5 and the n uil h y p o th esis is rejected .T h e re je c tio n reg ió n .. 9. w e co n c lu d e th at d iet I has a g re a te r m ean w e ig h t lo ss th an d ie t II.01 is z > 2 .

5 0 . 1832. T h e o b je c tiv e is to d eterm in e w h e th e r th is c o m p a n y p ay s w ag es d ifferen t from the to ta l in d u stry .32 >/. o r is / / d ifferen t from 5 4 ? T h u s. b -c T h e test statistic is z~ x-M 5 1 . the a v e ra g e d aily w age o f w o rk ers in a giv en industry.. the sa m p le av erag e .5 8 and the nuil h y p o th esis is rejected .6 1 4 ) ( l/6 1 2 4 + l/5 5 1 2 ) T h e rejectio n reg ió n fo r a = . 1836. 90 .4 0 . (U sing T ab le 3 w ill p ro d u c e a p .3 8 6 ( .01 is sm a lle r than the p -v a lu e . D o e s th is p o p u la tio n h av e as an a v erag e w age / / = 5 4 . 1832 . 3 7 P \-P l = 3.\a lu e o f .S a m p le T e s t o f a P o p u la tio n M e a n a p p let g iv es p -v a lu e = . T h at is. A sam p le o f n = 4 0 w o rk e rs has been d raw n fro m a p a rtic u la r co m p an y w ithin th is in d u stry a n d x . assu m e that th is sam p le o f fo rty w o rk ers has been d ra w n fro m a h y p o th etica l p o p u latio n o f w o rk e rs. e S ince n is g rea te r than 30. the C en tral L im it T h e o re m w ill g u a ra n te e the n o rm ality o f x re g a rd le ss o f w h e th e r the o rig in al p o p u la tio n w as n o rm al o r not.z =• .8 3 a T h e p a ra m e te r o f in te re st is / / . th e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : ¡x = 5 4 v ersu s H : // * 54 . 9 .01 is | z \> 2 .5 4 s/y/ñ 1 1 .3 3 1 an d the L a r g e . H0 c a n n o t be re je c te d and we ca n n o t co n c lu d e th at th e c o m p a n y is p ay in g w ag es d ifferen t fro m the in d u stry averag e. has b een ca lc u late d . . T h ere is su fficie n t e v id e n c e to ind ícate th at the p e rc e n ta g e o f stu d e n ts w ho are fluent in E n g lish d iffers fo r th ese tw o d istricts.8 8 /7 4 0 = -1 .) d S in ce a = .

d N o tic e th a t th e 9 9 % u p p e r o n e-sid ed co n fid e n c e b o u n d fo r /y d o es n o t in c lu d e the v alu é /y = 7.01 an d « .0 1 5 w ith 5 d f 10.8 2 1 .2 4 9 4 4 4 10 T h e re je c tio n re g ió n w ith a = . s/J ñ 1. a tM = 2 . w e a re fairly ce rta in th a t th is p a rtic u la r in terv al en d o ses / y .2 7 . calc ú late X * (.f = 01 19 4 9 4 4 4 => 7.1 = 9 d eg rees o f fre ed o m is lo c a te d in the lo w e r tail o f th e /-d istrib u tio n and is fo u n d fro m T a b le 4 as / < .2 .1 R efer to T a b le 4 . A p p e n d ix I.2 4 9 4 44 n -\ 9 and 5 = .821 (fro m T a b le 4 ) and th e 9 9 % u p p e r o n e-sid ed co n fid e n c e b o u n d is c x + t 0i. = 70. T h e h y p o th esis to b e te ste d is H 0 :/y = 100 v ersu s 91 H a :/ y < 1 0 0 . 10.^ --------------2— = ------------------1^— = .4994 W ith d f = n . H en ee.4 9 6 .7 .Z i. in w h ic h w e c o n c lu d e d th a t /y is less th a n 7. H 0 is re je c te d a n d w e c o n c lu d e th a t /y is less th a n 7.5 .T O í.1 = 9 .5.96 w ith 3 0 d f c / 10 = 1.05 + ./ 01 = .446 o r /y < 7 . T hen y . S in ce th e o b se rv e d v alu é o f th e te st statistic falls in th e re je c tio n reg ió n . th e ap p ro p ria te v alu é o f t is / 01 = 2.3 0 6 w ith 8 d f c t 02i » 1.330 w ith 18 d f a U sin g th e fo rm u las g iv e n in C h a p te r 2 .5 a n d th e test statistic is 7 0 5 .5 v ersu s H a : /y < 7.™ n 10 / = b . T h is w o u ld co n firm th e re su lts o f th e h y p o th e sis te st in p a rt c .9 a S im ila r to p rev io u s ex erc ise s. in d ex in g d f a lo n g th e left o r rig h t m a rg in a n d ta ac ro ss th e to p .5 .10: Inference from Small Samples 10.5 an d X * 2 = 4 9 9 .8 2 1 J : V io => 7. c T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : /y = 7.2 7 .5 b t 02S = 2 .5.05 + 2 . In terv als c o n stru c te d u sin g th is p ro ce d u re w ill e n d o s e /y 9 9 % o f the tim e in rep e a te d sam p lin g . 4 9 9 .

4 => 2 6 . b T h e 9 5% u p p e r o n e -sid e d c o n fid e n c e b o u n d .7 2 5 and the reje c tio n reg ió n is t < . 2 3 < 2 9 .5 3 9 14'9Q^ 1 2 5 11 => / / < 9 8 .16.98 92 .3 7 o r 2 3 . b ased on n .3 1 6 V 20 T h is c o n firm s the re su lts o f p a rt a in w h ich w e c o n c lu d e d th at th e m ean is less than 100 D L. c 10.1 = 19 d e g ree s o f freedom .6 ± 3 . the large sam p le c o n fid en c e in terv al is => 246. is x + í0 yjn => 8 9 . 10.1 .2 .13 a T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : n = 25 v ersu s H a : ¡u < 25 T h e test statistic is T h e critical valu é o f t w ith a = .095 C alcú late x = — L = 8 9 .6 9 7 . R efer to E x erc ise 10.0 1 a n d n .= V 2l => 2 6 .9035 T h e test statistic is V2Ó T h e critical valué o f t w ith or = . _ 1797.9 7 .8 5 4 7 5 n ~ 20 165.1 = 2 0 d e g re e s o f freed o m is t 05 = 1 ..\ = 1 9 d e g re e s o f freed o m is r 01 = 2. S in ce the o b se rv ed v alu é d o es falls in the rejectio n reg ió n . b T h e 9 5% c o n fid e n c e in terv al b ase d o n d f = 2 0 is 7.5 3 9 .96±12. 0 8 6 . 7 2 5 .7 0 8 1 n -1 (1797.17 T h e p re -tre a tm en t m ean lo o k s c o n sid e ra b ly sm a lle r th an the o th e r tw o m eans.Ijc.6 ± 2 .8 5 4 7 5 + 2 . T h e nuil h y p o th esis is reje c te d and w e co n c lu d e th a t /J is less th a n 100 D L. and w e co n c lu d e th at p re -tre a tm en t m ean is less than 25. H 0 is re jec ted . If w e use th e larg e sa m p le m eth o d o f C h a p te r 8.095 )2 = 222.1150605 19 and 5 = 14.539 and the re je c tio n reg ió n is t < .05 a n d n .

0 U = .6 7 9 )2 = sm a lle r s 2 2.1 .2 = 23 d e g re e s o f freed o m .4 0 0 )2 w h ic h is less th an th ree. = 1 4 x 2 = 1 .\ ) s ..27 a C h e c k th e ra tio o f the tw o v a rian ces u sin g the ru le o f th u m b g iv en in th is section: J a r g e r r _ _ 2/78 0 9 5 _ lf i2 2 sm aller 5 . w h ich is w h y w e c h o o se to x — u.4 0 0 )2 n.¡i2 * 0 . . s/y jn a p p ro x im a te th e sa m p lin g d istrib u tio n o f 10. ~ n 2 = 0 v ersu s 93 H a : //. sin c e th e e x a c t p -v a lu e is g iv en on th e p rin to u t as P -V a lu e = .2 12 + 21 — ^ 2 T h e h y p o th e sis to b e tested is H 0 :/ /.9 ) n] + n 2 —2 + (n2 .896 s f = (. 10. W ith a = . p . T h erefo re.260. .4 ) + 3 ( 4 .19 a _ (/.9 4 . ~ n 2 = 0 v ersu s Ha :p. T h erefo re. b It is not n e c e ssa ry to b o u n d the p -v a lu e u sin g T a b le 4 . the reje c tio n reg ió n is \t\ > tm5 = 2 .o r 2 3 3 .1 (. T h e re is not e n o u g h e v id e n c e to in d ícate a d ifferen c e in the p o p u la tio n m eans. .1 4 7 s \ = ( 6 7 9 )2 rc2 = 11 an d the test statistic is t= (T. b Y ou sh o u ld use the u n p o o led t test w ith S a tte rth w a ite ’s a p p ro x im atio n to the d e g re e s o f freed o m fo r testing H 0 :p. c I f you ch e c k th e ratio o f the tw o v a rian ces u sin g the ru le o f th u m b g iv en in this sectio n you w ill find: \2 l a r g e r r _ (.25 a 2 7?. th e fo llo w in g in fo rm a tio n is a v ailab le: ^ = . . T h e in terv als are fairly sim ilar.w ith a z d istrib u tio n w h en n > 3 0 .17143 w h ich is g reater th an th ree. fro m T a b le 4 .1 6 «2 T h e rejectio n re g ió n is tw o -tailed .p 2 * 0 F ro m th e M i n i t a b p rin to u t. it is rea so n a b le to assu m e th a t the tw o p o p u la tio n v a rian ces are equ al. + ( „ . 10 + 4 .9 8 < p < 2 5 9 .0 6 9 a n d Hq is n o t re jec ted . b ll( 1 8 ) + 2 0 ( 2 3 ) nt + n 2 —2 10. it is n o t re a so n a b le to assu m e th at th e tw o p o p u la tio n v a rian c es are equal.1 ) k _ 9 ( 3 .05 .x 2 ) . + n 2 . b ased on n.

6 4 6 10 _ and = . ~ / j 2 = 0 v ersu s Ha >0 a n d th e p re lim in a ry calc u la tio n s are as follow s: S w im m er 1 S w im m e r 2 I * .24 10 . x¡ = 1 5 9 .4 6 I jc2í = 5 9 6 . í •*]/ ( W +y . T h e re is e v id e n c e o f a d iffe re n c e in the m ean n u m b e r o f u n co n tam in ate d eg g p lan ts fo r th e tw o d isin fectan ts.17143 +15 w ith r s¡ s — +— n.(5 9 6 '2 7 ) 10 10 5+ 5 -2 A l so.1 0 9 3 n2 = 10 T hen .* 2) . ( ' O —+— r v n\ n i ) 5 9 . h is(h er) a v erag e tim e sh o u ld be less th an th e a v erag e tim e fo r sw im m e r 1. a I f sw im m e r 2 is faster. .05 so th at H 0 can b e re je c te d at the 5% lev el o f sig n ifican ce.2 3 5 5 7 6 . ( i ^ ) 2 1. 7 3 . + n2 .+ l n2 .0 1 1 4 2 8 7 )2 2 2 . n .6 2 7 .= 59.4 .7 8 0 9 5 i— + n.. = 10 1 4 = 3 5 5 5 4 . n 15 = -2 .4 1 2 .1 0 9 3 .2 7 = 3 5 5 7 6 .6 9 7 6 .8 t = 2 .031247221 1 V io = 0. = 5 9 6 .0 0 0 0 0 9 3 3 U y .0 1.0 3 1 2 4 7 2 2 5 9 6 .( 5 9 6 4 6 ) + 3 5 5 5 4 .2 7 _ = -----------. n 2 df = ( . the p -v a lu e fo r this te st is b o u n d ed b e tw een .«2W ith d f ~ 15 .T h e test statistic is 3 .x2¡ !h_______________ n2 n.6 4 6 .6 27 2 10 T h e te st statistic is t= ( x . T h erefo re .1 8 5 3 9 7 + .0 0 2 4 5 5 1 3 7 + .5 9 .6 9 7 6 n. th e h y p o th esis o f in terest is H 0 : //.02 a n d . .

y o u c a n co n c lu d e that .2 -.1 6 and B = .1 I d. the p -v a lu e c a n be b o u n d e d using T a b le 4 so th at p -v a lu e > .07 95 . w ill be valid. .05 S in ce th e p -v a lu e is less th an a = . the in eq u ality to b e so lv e d is a p p ro x im a te ly 1 . is p re se n te d below .3 7 2 ) = 2 P ( t > 2 . and H 0 is not rejected .P 2 = 0 or H0 :p d = 0 Ha : p .01 .1 S in ce th is v alu é o f n is g rea te r than 30. d¡ .025 2 .0 1 4 < ( p .3 ± .05 .p .1 0 .35 a T h e test statistic is t= d -n d .1 0 .= 7. — 025 => . b A 9 5% c o n fid e n ce in terv al fo r p 1 . 1.2 62 . « = 62 p airs.F o r a o n e-ta ile d test w ith d f = «.8 2 1 ).3 7 2 ) = .01 Z d f = . T h e p -v alu e is then 1 P (\t\ > 2 .84 « > 6 1 .04 .372 Jy fñ w ith « .01 ..3 df . c U sin g sf¡ = .1 = 9 d e g re e s o f freedom . .2 = 1 8 .00 . = . = p ^ is d ± t a a -^= => 3 ± 2.l ■Jn r 1 .2 6 2 and f 01 = 2 .02 < p -v a lu e < .p 2) < .^ < . the sam p le size.1 . T h e re is in su ffic ie n t e v id e n c e to in d ícate th a t sw im m e r 2 ’s a v erag e tim e is still fa ste r than th e a v e ra g e tim e for sw im m e r 1.9 6 V 4 6 f n > -------------.01 < — p -v a lu e < . 10.5 8 6 .9 6 .37 a It is n e ce ssa ry to u se a p aire d -d iffe re n c e test.3 7 2 ) so th at P ( t > 2 . sin c e the tw o sa m p les are no t ra n d o m and in d ep en d e n t.p -v a lu e S in ce th e v alu é t = 2 . 10.3 7 2 falls b e tw een tw o tab led e n trie s fo r d f = 9 ( f 025 = 2 .2 8 6 VIO o r ‘.3 -0 = 2. the nuil h y p o th esis is re je cte d an d w e co n c lu d e th a t th e re is a d iffe re n c e in the tw o p o p u la tio n m eans.p 2 * 0 or Ha : p ^ 0 T h e table o f d iffe re n ce s. a lo n g w ith the calc u latio n o f d and s] .4 7 or « = 62 . + « . T he h y p o th esis o f in terest is H 0 : P] .

0 8 2 < ( / / . and H 0 is n o t re je c te d .= .06 ± . ¿ ± '0 2 5 ./ / . I f h is re a c tio n tim e in g en eral is h ig h . ) < .9 .9458 .0 7 - (■3): = . d In o rd e r to u se th e p a ire d -d iffe re n c e test.776. t=— = = 1 .41 a E ach su b ject w as p re se n te d w ith b o th sig n s in ra n d o m ord er.2 0 A 95% c o n fid en c e in te rv a l fo r //.= . b o th resp o n se s w ill be high.7 7 6 ./ /2 = ° or H (): / r d = 0 H a :/r . T h e rejec tio n reg ió n w ith a = .d = ^ . 10.1 4 2 o r ..^ = 1 0 6 .1 7 7 sjy jn Im 3 w ith n .0 6 -0 . T h e p a ire d -d iffe re n c e d e sig n will elim in a te the s u b je c t to su b je c t variab ility .2 0 2 . W e c an n o t co n c lu d e th at th e m ean s are differen t. if h is re actio n tim e in g en eral is low . T h e larg e v ariab ility fro m su b jec t to su b je ct w ill m ask the v ariab ility d u e to th e d iffe re n c e in sign ty p es. b T h e p -v a lu e is P flíl > 1 .f vn . 10 (£ 4 )2 126.\1 and the te st statistic is J .013 .. b o th re sp o n se s w ill be low . . it is n e cessary th at th e n p aired o b se rv atio n s be ra n d o m ly se le cte d fro m n o rm ally d istrib u te d po p u latio n s. and = 3 6 .05 is H > ¿ 025 = 2 . —/ / 2 = / i d is c .0 s d /4~n 3 6 .1 7 7 ) = 2 /> (f > 1 ./r 2 * 0 h o:^ i or H a ://rf* 0 T h e tab le o f d ifferen c e s.1 7 7 ) > 2 ( .0 6 n 5 JJ and _ . a lo n g w ith the calc u la tio n o f d and s] .1 = 4 d eg rees o f freed o m .013 T h e test statistic is d -jU j .06 + 2. is p re se n te d below . b T h e h y p o th esis o f in te re st is .9 n Z d? -. D riv er d. 1 0 ) = .9 4 5 8 Vio 96 = 1364. 2 141 1 122 3 97 4 107 5 37 6 56 7 110 8 146 9 104 10 149 T o tals 1069 j =I 4 =1069=106.561 - (1 0 6 9 )2 10 “ n .

c T h e 9 5 % c o n fid e n c e interv al fo r /i.2 -82 V8 T h e p -v a lu e sh o w n in the p rin to u t is p -v a lu e = .45 a U se the M i n i t a b p rin to u t g iv en in th e tex t b elo w .4 8 7 5 -1 ./ / 2 = n d is s d .0 .0 0 5 ) = .1 5 0 w ith d f = n . 10. 97 x]\-a¡i) he the . S im ilarly .013 .3 2 1 4 and n = 15 . c In o rd e r to a p p ly the p a ire d -d iffe re n c e test.4 2 8 Vio o r 8 0 .T 4 9 Í 3 T .. .^ 7 X 1 . T h e h y p o th e sis o f in te re st is H 0 'V a ~Mb = 0 Ha :^ .4 8 7 5 .105 —j= V» 1 49134 => 1 . .9 ± 2 ./y B>0 an d the te st sta tistic is d -n d r.2 6 2 --6-^ i 5-8 => 106.4885 .S in ce t = 9 . W e c a n n o t co n c lu d e th at the m ean s are differen t./ / 2 ) > . d Y es. th en the m ean o f fo u r asse ssm e n ts w ill be n o rm a lly d istrib u te d . = fid is d ± t m. A 90% c o n fid e n c e in terv al fo r c r w ill be (n -l)s 2 Xa/2 2 ( m —1) < o~ < X(i-a/2) w h ere Xa/i rep rese n ts the valué o f x ~ su c h th at 5% o f th e a rea u n d e r the c u rv e (show n in the figure on the n ex t p a g e) lies to its rig h t. p -v a lu e < 2 (. th e 8 p ro p e rtie s m u st be ran d o m ly and in d ep en d e n tly selected and th e a ssessm e n ts m u st be n o rm ally d istrib u ted .3 2 8 .95 lies to its right. .4 7 2 < ( f i x ~ n 2 ) < 1 3 3 .8 9 5 ' V8 => 1 .9 9 9 o r (//.49 F o r this ex ercise .^ = ' y fn ~~~ => 106.05.01 fo r this tw o ta ile d te st and Ho is re je cte d .4 8 7 5 . .1 = 9 is g rea te r th an th e tab led valué t m . b A 9 5 % lo w e r o n e -sid e d c o n fid e n c e b o u n d fo r p . S in ce the p -v a lu e is less than . W e co n c lu d e th at a sse sso r A giv es h ig h er a sse ssm en ts th an a sse sso r B.9 ± 2 6 . s 2 = . I f the in d iv id u al asse ssm e n ts a re n o rm ally d istrib u ted . the d iffe re n c e x A —x w ill be n o rm ally d istrib u te d a n d the t test on th e d iffe re n c e s is v alid as in c./ / . X~ v alué su ch th a t an a rea . 10. H enee. H0 is re je cte d a t the 5% lev el o f sig n ifican ce.

H enee.( 1 9 % >2 s~ = ---------------2— = -------------------. b T he m an u fac tu re r cla im s th a t th e ra n g e o f the p o ten ey m e a su rem en ts w ill e q u a l .6 2 2 6 .2. In d ex ing Xm 2 and x l s w ith n .9 9 .= n . T h e re is in su fficien t e v id en c e to sh o w that the m ean d iffe rs fro m 5 m g/cc.1 3 and the test sta tistic is t= . Ho is not rejected .2 3 2 .0 0 1 1 .57 0 6 3 and an d the c o n fíd en c e interv al is 14 (. w e k n o w th at o ~ .1 8 2 .0074 4 .. 1 4 Í.1 9 0 <<T2 < .= 4.6 8 4 8 6 .< a < — ---------2 3 . ^ s/yfn = .0 3 3 3 ) 2 = . w e have lo cated o n e -h a lf o f a in each tail o f the d istrib u tio n . = .1 = 3 d e g re e s o f fre e d o m is fo u n d from T ab le 4 as~~|f| > tms = 3 .53 a or .3 2 1 4 ) .5 7 0 6 3 10.0 0 1 1 98 H 3 :c72 > .3 2 1 4 ) — -------.0074 4 T h e rejectio n reg ió n w ith a = .6 8 5 T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 :/¿ = 5 H a :/y * 5 Tx 19 96 C a lcú late J = ± ^ = — .99 n 4 9 9 .5 . S ince th is ran g e is g iv en to eq u al 6cr .1 = 14 d eg re e s o f freed o m in T a b le 5 y ields X l s = 2 3 . T h en H 0 :<72 = ( ..0333 .. S in ce the o b se rv e d v alu é o f th e test statistic d o e s not fall in the reje c tio n reg ió n .6 8 4 8 x l s = 6 .05 and n .

(n -l)í2 3 Í.61 H0 :of T h e h y p o th e sis o f in te re st is = of v ersu s H a :a 2 * of an d the test statistic is s2 712 F = A r = — 7 = 1.95 .4 7 2 T h e critical v alú es o f F fo r v ario u s v a lú e s o f a are giv en on the fo llo w in g page.18 a. H0 is n o t rejected .= 20.3 0 5 . 99 .= ^ > 2 .9 2 2 1.025 2.20 Sin ce the p .T h e test statistic is y . a Fa . p -v a lu e = 2 P ( F > 1. th ere is su ffic ie n t e v id e n c e to in d icate th a t the ran g e o f the poten cy w ill e x c e ed the m a n u fa c tu re r’s claim .65 F o r e a c h o f the th ree te sts. 10. s¡ 69 T h e critical v alú es o f F fo r v ario u s v a lú e s o f a a re g iv en b elo w u sin g df¡ = 15 and d f2 = 14. and H 0 is n o t re jec ted .0 0 7 4 ) = 4 J .= .4 9 2 ' and F = ¿ 5 .05 2.8 = 2 9 .25 H enee.29 4 .± -------. 150* reg ió n w ith or = .10 2.01 3.01 .1 )s 2 = I * 2 - = = 6 6 2 .059 .01 a n d n .2 3 2 .81 H0 is rejected .66 .2 3 2 .0011 and the o n e -ta ile d re je c tio n reg ió n w ith a = . T h ere is in su ffic ie n t e v id e n c e to in d icate th a t he is m eetin g h is goal. T h e re is no e v id en c e to in d icate that the v a rian ce s a re d ifferen t.059) > 2 (. 10.57 H 0 : a = 150 T h e h y p o th e sis o f in te re st is H a : a < 150 C alcú late (n .\ a lu e is so larg e . 10) = . T h e o n e-tailed rejectio n <t(.4 3 3 .46 .01 si 3 . 6 0 0 - and th e test statistic is y 2 = — — íp—. 10.005 4. u sin g d f = 9 an d d f 2 = 9 .8 9 2 . the h y p o th e sis o f in terest is H 0 : of = of v ersu s H a : of * of and the te st sta tistic s are F -2 S-s 3 .99 = 7 .03 ' F = 4 = 4 ^ = 2.1 = 3 d e g re es o f freedo m is r > * 2 5 = 7.2 = ^ = 14.1 = 19 d e g re e s o f freed o m i s # 2 < Z .6 3 2 7 3 .05 and n .

I f there w ere no d iffe re n c e b e tw een the b lo ck s.2 2 . o r he m ay w ish to c a lc ú late x a n d s a n d u se th e m o re e x a c t c a lc u la tio n s fo r the co n fid en ce in tervals. T h e ca lc u la tio n s are sh o w n o n the n ex t page. W e e x p e c t b lo c k in g to crea te a larg e re d u c tio n in the stan d ard dev iatio n .05 and n . T h e 9 0 % co n fid e n ce in terv al is I ± 7 .375 < p < 33.69 P aired o b serv atio n s are u sed to e stím a te th e d ifferen c e b etw ee n tw o p o p u latio n m ean s in p referen ce to an e stim a tio n b a sed on in d ep en d en t ra n d o m sa m p les se lected from the tw o p o p u latio n s b ec a u se o f the in c re a sed in fo rm atio n c a u se d by b lo c k in g the ob serv atio n s.746 . fo r the first tw o tests.. ~ yfn => 3 1 .20 w hile fo r the last test.6 2 5 o r 28.6 2 5 .05 3.4 4 . 0 ± 1 .0 H a : p > 22.0 ± 2 . th e re je c tio n reg ió n w ith a = .005 6.1 = 16 d eg rees o f freed o m is lo c ate d in the u p p e r tail o f the r-d istrib u tio n a n d is fo u n d from T a b le 4 as t > r 05 = 1.a . H 0 is re je c te d an d w e c o n c lu d e th at the in je c te d rats do d rin k m ore w ater th an th e n o n in je c te d rats.10 2 . 10) = .18 .76 T h e stu d en t m ay use the ro u n d e d v alú es fo r x an d s g iv en in the d isp la y . T h e d e g ree s o f freed o m th at are av ailab le fo r e stim a tin g o 2 are less fo r p a ired than fo r u n p aired o b serv a tio n s. S in ce th e o b se rv e d v alu é o f the te st statistic falls in the reje c tio n reg ió n . p -v a lu e > 2 (.01 4.54 H enee. 100 . the h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : p = 2 2 . 10. i f d ifferen c es d o e x is t a m o n g th e blocks.025 . P aired o b se rv a tio n s are no t a lw a y s p refe ra b le. T h e tw o -sam p le r-test w ith a p o o le d estím ate o f o 1 ca n n o t be used fo r the th ird variab le.73 Since it is n ecessa ry to d e te rm in e w h eth er the in jected rats d rin k m o re w ater than n o n in jected rates. 10.0 an d the te st statistic is f= 3 1 . the p a ire d e x p e rim e n t w o u ld th en be less beneficial.0 0 5 ) = . p -v a lu e < 2 (.01 T h e re is n o e v id en c e to in d íca te th a t th e v a ria n c e s are d iffe re n t fo r the first tw o tests.03 5. 10.0 . 7 4 6 4 ¿ V Í7 3 1 .35 .0 = 5 9 8 5 s/'yjn 62 U sin g th e critical va lu é a p p ro a c h . but H0 is re je c te d fo r the th ird v ariab le.

_
I jc¿
1845
x =
L = --------= 184.5
n
10

a

3 4 4 ,5 6 7 - í^
s 2 = ---------- *—
n -1

= ---------------------------------= 4 6 2 .7 2 2 2
9

5 = 21.511 an d the 9 5 % co n fid e n ce in terv al is

5
x ± tm -=
yjn
o r 169.1 < /u < 199.9 .

v- 2 (X -v .)2
Z x ,2 - V ^ 52 = — 5 — =
n- 1

I = ^ Í L = — = 7 3 .0
n
10

-

b

_____________ 21.511
=> 1.845 ± 2 .2 6 2 — ^ = — => 184.5 ± 1 5 .4
-s/l 0

(7 3 0 )‘
5 3 5 1 4 ->
'
——
= 2 4 .8 8 8 9
9

s = 4 .9 8 9 and the 9 5 % co n fid e n c e interv al is
j
x ± t m. - 7=

4 989
=> 7 3 . 0 ± 2 . 2 6 2 - =
VTÓ

=> 7 3 .0 ± 3 .5 7

o r 6 9 .4 3 < /J < 7 6 .5 7 .
c

_
I x
25.42
x =
i- = --------- = 2 .5 4 2
n
10
S x j _ ( £ ü ) _

6 5 .8 3 9 8 _ ( 2 5 '4 2 )

^ ------= .1 3 5 7 9 5 5 6
n- 1

9

5 = .3685 and the 9 5 % co n fid e n ce interv al is

x ± tms
Vn
o r 2.28 < f i < 2 .8 0 .

=> 2 . 5 4 ± 2 . 2 6 2 = >
VlO

2 .5 4 ± .2 6

d N o. T h e re la tio n sh ip b e tw een the co n fid en ce in te rv als is n o t the sam e as the
re la tio n sh ip b e tw een the o rig in al m easu rem en ts.
10.79

U se the c o m p u tin g fo rm u las o r y o u r scien tific c a lc u la to r to calcú late
_
Ix ,.
322.1
v = -----= ----------- = 24.777
n
13
„ 2 ( I ± )2
( 3 2 2 .1)2
Ijc ,2 - V
8 114.59 —
}—
5 2 = ---------------'-1— =
—— = 11.1619
n- 1
12
5 = 3 .3 4 0 9 a n d the 9 5 % co n fid e n c e interv al is

101

t. "u n o
2 4 .7 7 7 ± 2 . 1 7 9 ^ = ^
vi 3

c
I ± t m5 —=
yjn

2 4 .7 7 7 ± 2 .0 1 9

o r 2 2 .5 7 8 < m < 2 6 .7 9 6 .
83

a T h e ra n g e o f the first sam p le is 4 7 w hile the ra n g e o f the se co n d sam p le is only
16. T h e re is p ro b ab ly a d iffe re n c e in th e varian ces.
b T h e h y p o th esis o f in terest is
H (l: a y = o \
1 7 7 ,2 9 4 -

H a : a ,2 * a \

v ersu s

(8 3 8 )2

C a lc ú la te s i =

1 9 2 ,3 9 4 - M
= 5 7 7 .6 6 6 7

*,2 =

6

= 29.6

and the te st statistic is
F = ii_ = 5TL666T_ _
si

29.6

T h e critic a l v alú es w ith d f x = 3 and d f 2 = 5 a re sh o w n b e lo w fro m T a b le 6.
a

.10
3.62

Fa

.05
5.41

.025

.01
12.06

7.76

.005
16.53

H enee,
p -v a lu e = 2 P ( F > 19 .5 1 6 ) < 2 (.0 0 5 ) = .01
S in ce th e p -v a lu e is sm alle r th an .01, H 0 is re jec ted at the 1% level o f sig n ifican ce.
T h e re is a d ifferen ce in variab ility .
c S in ce th e S tu d e n t’s t test re q u ire s the assu m p tio n o f eq u al v arian ce, it w o u ld be
in a p p ro p ria te in this in stan ce. Y o u sh o u ld use the u n p o o le d t test w ith S a tte rth w a ite ’s
a p p ro x im a tio n to the d eg ree s o f freedom .
87

A p a ire d -d iffe re n c e test is u sed , sin ce the tw o sa m p les are n o t ran d o m an d
in d ep en d e n t. T h e h y p o th e sis o f in terest is
H0 :A ~

H a :/il - l i 2 > 0

=0

a n d the tab le o f d ifferen ces, a lo n g w ith the calc u la tio n o f d an d s] , is p resen te d
b elow .
P air
4

d-

=M
n

=^ =
4

5.5

1
-1

2
5

3
11

Zd>-

4
7

( 1 4 )2

n- 1

sd = 5
a n d the test statistic is

102

T o tal s
22

196-

(22)2
= 25

and

I=

d - n (i
5 .5 -0
y-£= =
= 2.2
sJyJn
A

T h e o n e -ta ile d p -v a lu e w ith d f = 3 can be b o u n d ed b e tw e e n .05 and .10. S in ce thi
v alu é is g re a te r th an .10. H 0 is n o t rejected . T h e resu lts are n o t sig n ific a n t; th ere is
in su ffic ie n t e v id e n c e to in d icate that lack o f sch o o l ex p e rie n c e h as a d e p re ssin g efl
on IQ scores.
10.91

T h e o b ject is to d eterm in e w h eth e r o r n o t there is a d iffe re n c e b etw ee n the m ean
resp o n se s fo r the tw o d iffe re n t stim uli to w h ich the p e o p le h av e been su b je cte d . T
sa m p le s a re in d ep en d e n tly a n d ran d o m ly selected , and the a ssu m p tio n s n e cessary 1
the t test o f S ectio n 10.4 are m et. T h e h y p o th esis to be tested is
H a : //, - f ¿ 2 * 0

H o ; A i - / /2 = 0

an d the p re lim in a ry c a lc u la tio n s are as follow s:
15
T, = — = 1.875 a n d

21
x 2 = — = 2.625

(1 5 )2
3 3 --— —

(2 1 )2
61 - - —
= .69 6 4 3

and

s2 =

= .83 9 2 9

S in ce th e ra tio o f the v a rian ces is less than 3, you can u se th e p o o led t test. T h e
p o o le d e stim a to r o f <r: is calc u la ted as
2

(rh - \ ) s ; + ( n 2 - \ ) s ¡

4 .8 7 5 + 5.875

n ,+ n 2 - 2

14

= .7679

a n d the te st statistic is
....

1 .8 7 5 - 2 .6 2 5
1.7679
V

ÍI+H
oo

n 2J

oc

Ui

, m

T h e tw o -tailed reje c tio n reg ió n w ith a = .05 and d f = 14 is |r| > t m¡ = 2 .1 4 5 , a n d 1
is n o t rejected . T h e re is in su fficien t e v id e n c e to in d icate th at th ere is a d iffe re n c e i
m eans.
10.97

It is p o ssib le to test the n uil h y p o th e sis H 0 : tJ,‘ = cr2 a g a in st a n y one o f th ree
a lte rn ativ e h y p o th eses:
(1 ) H a i o f * o \

(2 )

H a : <t2 < o \

(3 )

Ha :o \ > o \

a T h e first a ltern ativ e w o u ld be p referred by the m a n a g e r o f th e d airy. H e d o e s n
k n o w an y th in g a b o u t the v ariab ility o f the tw o m ach in es an d w ould w ish to d e tec t
d e p a rtu re s fro m e q u a lity o f th e type o \ < o \ o r o \ > o \ . T h ese a lte rn a tiv e s are
im p lie d in (1).

103

55 3.36 S in ce th e ratio o f the tw o sa m p le v a rian ces is less th an 3. th ere w o u ld be n o e v id en c e to in d icate th at the v ariab ility o f the c o m p an y A m a ch in e w as g re a te r th an the v ariab ility o f the c o m p an y B m achine. c a lc ú la te the d iffe re n c e s ( x 2 . 10.101 A p aire d -d iffe re n c e a n aly sis is used.05 is t > tM = 2 . .00 147. R ejectio n o f the nuil h y p o th e sis w ould im ply th at h is m a c h in e had sm a lle r v ariab ility .109 T h e M i n i t á b p rin to u t b elo w sh o w s th e su m m ary statistics fo r the tw o sam p les: Descriptive Statistics: Method 1. F u rth er.105 T h e u n d erly in g p o p u latio n s are ratin g s and can o nly tak e on the fin ite n u m b e r o f v alú es. 1. c T h e salesm an for c o m p a n y B w o u ld p refe r the th ird altern ativ e fo r a sim ilar reaso n .. is th e m ean reactio n tim e a fte r injectio n and //. —/ / 2 = 0 v ersu s H a : /v. is th e m ean re a c tio n tim e b efo re in jectio n . sin ce the sam e p erso n is ask ed to ran k e ach c a r d esig n . y o u can use the p o o le d t test to c o m p are the tw o jn e th o d s o f m easu rem en t. w h ere > 0.n d 3 .29 StDev 10. tw o o f the assu m p tio n s re q u ire d fo r the S tu d e n t’s t test have b een violated. 1 ( W T h en d= ^ n = — = 3. 10. an d H 0 is rejected ..20 Mean 4. 1 . Method 2 Variable Method 1 Method 2 N 5 5 Mean SE 137.8 8 6 7 5 ' F o r a o n e -ta ile d test w ith d f = 3 . H en ee.17 7. 2. the reje c tio n reg ió n w ith a = .6 . the sa m p les are n o t in d ep en d e n t.b T h e salesm an for c o m p a n y A w o u ld p re fer th at the ex p e rim e n te r se le ct the seco n d altern ativ e..8 8 6 7 5 and the test sta tistic is t= d .= 2 425 s J J i 2 . 9.4— = g. N e ith e r p o p u la tio n has a n o rm al d istrib u tio n .33 3 and s d = 2 . W e co n c lu d e th at the d ru g sig n ifican tly in creases w ith reactio n tim e.3 5 3 . M o reo v e r.5 -0 — = -------------. b u t b o th are d iscrete . T o test H (): //.x . u sin g th e re m a in d e r o f the M i n it a b prin to u t on the n ext page: 104 .1 74_ M l = -----------. 10.5 4 =— d *— n. ) : 6 . even if the nuil h y p o th e sis w ere n o t rejected . 10.

T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : A. L e t //. w h ile ro u g h ly 9 9 % o f the in te rv a ls in tf se co n d a p p le t co n ta in / / .82 Both use Pooled StDev = 8.1 1 9 U se the In ter p r e tin g C o n fid e n c e In te rv a ls ap p let. E n te r a p p ro p ria te statistics into the a p p le t an d y o u w ill fin d th a t te st sta tistic is w ith a tw o -ta ile d p -v a lu e o f . .mu (Method 2) Estímate for difference: -10. 1 0 .0030.8 2 w ith p -v a lu e = . H 0 is re je cte d .A2 = 0 v ersu s H a : A.7506) T-Test of difference = 0 (vs not =): T-Value = -1.01 a n d n . .A2 ^ 0 S in ce the ratio o f th e v a rian ces is less than 3. T h e re is su fficien t e v id e n c e to in d ica te th at the a v e ra g e n u m b e r o f c a lo rie s is g re ate r than ad v ertised . 1 0 .1 1 3 T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : n = 280 v ersus H a : a > 280 T h e te st statistic is Vio T h e critical valué o f t w ith a = . T h e w id th s o f th e te n in terv als w ill no t be the sam e.003 and the resu lts a re ju d g e d h ig h ly sig n ifican t.1 2 3 U se the T w o S a m p le t T est: In d ep en d e n t S a m p les ap p le t. S in ce the p -v a lu e is v e ry sm all.Tw o-Sam ple T-Test and Cl: Method 1.1 . Method 2 Difference = mu (Method 1) . T h e re is su ffic ie n t e v id e n c e to ind icate a d ifferen c e in the m e a n rec o v e ry ra te s fo r tw o p ro ced u res.8798 — P-Value = 0.1506. S in ce th e o b se rv e d v alu é fa lls in the rejec tio n reg ió n . 1 0 .107 DF T h e test sta tistic is t = . 107 and th e resu lts a re n o t sig n ific a n t T h e re is in su fficie n t e v id e n c e to d e cla re a d iffe re n c e in th e tw o p o p u la tio n m ean s. sin c e the v alu é o f c h an g e s w ith e a c h new sam p le. be the p o p u la tio n m ean fo r P ro c e d u re I and f i 2 be th e p o p u la ti m ean fo r P ro c e d u re II.2000 95% CI for difference: (-23. A n sw e rs w ill vary fro m studt to stu d en t. T h e stu d en t sh o u ld fin d th a t a p p ro x im a te ly 9 5 % i the in terv als in the first ap p le t co n tain / / . 105 .1 = 9 d e g re e s o f free d o m is í 0l = 2. y o u c a n use the p o o le d t test. T h e h y p o th e sis to b( tested c o n c e rn s the d ifferen c es b e tw een m ean rec o v e ry ra te s fo r th e tw o su rg ical p ro ce d u re s. 2. H 0 can be reje fo r any v alu é o f a g rea te r than .8 2 1 .821 the re je c tio n reg ió n is t > 2 .

.

1 4 2 8 5 7 = 2 6 .8571 T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : //.142857 14 T o tal SS = S x l .11: The Analysis of Variance 1 1 .7 df 3 20 23 T h e fo llo w in g p re lim in a ry calc u latio n s a re n ecessary: 7¡ = 1 4 a (3 8 ): CM = 7.5071 7 .6 5 -1 0 3 .5071 5 5 4 . 11. = = fiy v ersu s H a : a t least o n e p a ir o f m ean s are d iffe re n t 107 .2 = 1 1 . a re 1 3 .— CM = n.1. .4 S ource T reatm en ts E rro r df 5 54 T o tal 59 S im ila r to E x ercise 11.C M = 130 -1 0 3 . T h e A N O V A tab le is sh o w n below .5 0 7 1 = 1 2 .5071 an d M S T = -------= ------------.= 7 .S S T = 2 6 .2 5 3 6 E rro r 12.3 5 0 0 an d the d e g ree s o f freed o m .3500 11 1.C M = 32 + 2 2 + • • • + 22 + 12 .2 5 3 6 k . S ource T reatm en ts E rro r T o tal 11.8í SST = Z . S S E = T o ta l S S . th ere are k . = 1 9 7¡ = 5 G = 38 = 103.+ — + . W ith n = 4 ( 6 ) = 2 4 and k = 4 . SST 14.1 4 2 8 5 7 = 14. th e so u rc es o f v aria tio n a sso ciate d d f are sh o w n below . Source SS MS df T reatm en ts 2 14. T h en M SE = SSE = 123500 d e 11 11 T h e in fo rm a tio n o b tain ed in p arts a -c is C onsolidated in an A N O V A table.1227 T o tal 13 26.8 5 7 1 -1 4 .1 In c o m p a rin g 6 p o p u latio n s.— C M = 1 1 7 .1 2 c B y su b tra c tio n . by su b tractio n .1 d e g re es o ff re e d o m fo r tre atm e n ts and n = 6 (1 0 ) = 6 0 .

6 6 6 7 1140. T he F test is f = M S T = ^ 5 8 0 = 5 7 38 M SE .98 5 .5455 MS 3 2 0 . T h e C en tral L im it T h e o re m a ssu re s u s th a t this m ean w ill be ap p ro x im a te ly n o rm ally d istributed.025 and H 0 is rejected at the 5% level o f sig n ific a n c e . 5 3 + — — C M = 6 4 1 . T h e re is a sig n ifican t d iffe re n c e in m ean resp o n se d u e to the th ree d iffe re n t m ethods.2 8 6 .01 < p -v a lu e < .1227 F -d istrib u tio n w ith 2 a n d 11 d e g re e s o f freed o m . b W e have a co m p letely ra n d o m iz e d d e sig n w ith fo u r treatm en ts.01 . 11.4 6 and H 0 is rejected . T h ere is a d iffe re n c e am o n g the m eans.13 a W e w ould be re a so n a b ly c o n fid e n t th a t the d a ta satisfied the n o rm ality a ssu m p tio n b ecau se each m easu rem e n t re p re se n ts th e a v erag e o f 10 co n tin u o u s m e asu rem en ts.5455 S S T = Z —— C M = ^ 5 _ + — n.4 6 is b a se d o n an M SE 1.21 8. .8 7 8 8 3 3 C a lcú late M S = S S / d f an d c o n so líd a te the in fo rm atio n in an A N O V A table.1 4 5 .115 108 . e ac h c o n tain in g 6 m easu rem en ts. S ource T reatm en ts E rro r T otal b df 2 8 10 SS 6 4 1 . = 3 8 0 CM = T2 = 199 F.4 6 is b e tw e e n F 01 a n d F 025 .4 5 4 5 n 11 T o tal SS = I x¡ . T h e an aly sis o f v a rian c e ta b le is giv en in the M i n it a b prin to u t.C M = 1140. a .005 2 .025 . = f i 2 = p .9 3 9 62. 5 .8 6 3. T h e critical v alú es o f F for b o u n d in g th e p -v a lu e fo r th is o n e-ta ile d test a re show n below .3 3 3 T h e h y p o th esis to be tested is H 0 : //.05 a n d 2 and 8 d f i s F > 4 .= 6 4 .10 .91 S ince the observ ed valu é F = 6 .10 a T h e follow ing p re lim in a ry ca lc u la tio n s are n ecessary: 7. .2 6 7.05 .— — = 6 .C M = 6 5 . = 261 G = 84 0 ( I jÜ 2 (8 4 0 )2 — = --------.8 7 8 8 4 9 8 .f T h e rejectio n reg ió n fo r the te st sta tistic F = ---------= —. v ersu s H a : at lea st o n e p air o f m ean s are d ifferen t and the F test to d etec t a d iffe re n c e in m ean stu d en t resp o n se is F = M 5 I = 5. M SE T h e rejectio n reg ió n w ith a = .

2 CM = n. If y o u lo o k ed at the d a ta and o n ly co m p a re d th e large an d sm allest sam p le m eans.6 5 1 1 1 1 n.p 4 < 2. .001. H 0 is re je c te d .8 6 2 .8 .09) is b o u n d ed (u sin g T a b le 4) as p -v a lu e < 2 ( .w ith p -v a lu e = .01 o r ev en P < .2 5 T h e h y p o th esis to be tested is H 0 :p .01 and the n uil h y p o th e sis is reject.0 0 0 (in the c o lu m n m ark ed “ P ” ). 6 6 M SE = 12. S in ce the p -v a lu e is v ery sm all i th an .) 2 (4 6 8 6 )2 20 T o tal S S = SST = T2 = 1074 Z—— r 3 =1158 T4 = 1 2 4 3 G = 4686 = 1 . the ra n d o m n ess assu m p tio n w o u ld b e d istu rb ed .2 C a lc ú la te M S = S S / d f and c o n so líd ate the in fo rm a tio n in an A N O V A table. d T h e 9 9 % co n fid e n c e interv al fo r p .3 . T h ere is a sig n ifícan t d ifferen c e in the m ean le a f len g th am o n g the fo u r lo c a tio n s w ith P < .17 a b T h e d e sig n is a c o m p lete ly ran d o m iz ed d esig n (fo u r in d e p e n d e n t sam p le s). * p 4 a n d the test ~~~ x .6 5 ) ± 2 .p 4 is (x¡.x 4) ± r m 1 1 ^M SE — + — (6 .0 0 5 ) = . rem e m b e r th at the stated c o n fid e n c e c o e ffic ie n ts b a se d on ra n d o m sam p lin g . = p 2 = p 3 = p 4 versus 109 H a : at least o n e p a ir o f m ean s are d iffe r .3 .C M = 393 2 .0 9 7 .C M = 1 .9 2 9 .C M = 3 2 7 2 .1 0 1 . 1 2 1 12 5 10742 +5 1 1582 12432 5 5 . 8 4 5 ^ . = 1 2 1 1 CM = ( I * .810 < p .0 1 6 7 . .924 e W h en co n d u c tin g the t te sts.0 1 6 7 .2 660 3932.5 5 7 or 1. 1 1 5 ^ + ^ ) 2 . c T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : p .3 6 7 ± . 11.7333 41 .-x á t = 6 .0 1 ). W e co n c lu d e th at th ere is a d iffe re n c e b e tw e en t m eans.09 T h e p -v a lu e w ith d f = 2 0 is 2 P ( t > 12. S ource T re a tm en ts E rro r T o tal SS 3 2 72. T h e fo llo w in g p re lim in a ry c a lc u la tio n s are n ecessary: 7. n.2 df 3 16 19 MS 1090. = p 4 v ersu s sta tistic is H a : p .

and th e F test to d ete c t a d iffe re n c e in a v erag e p ric es is M ST F = ---------= 2oa6 ... M SE T h e rejectio n reg ió n w ith a = ..0 + --------. -*.0 Lab = 2 subtracted from: Lab Lower Center Upper 3 -9..184 3 -13.0 112.+ ----------+ ----------+ ----(. 1 0 .86 105.^ = 6 . 1 2 ) ..560 10.0 . ) -14.21 a c o = q 0..60 StDev 7..25 V8 T h e d esig n is co m p le te ly ran d o m iz ed w ith 3 tre a tm en ts a n d 5 rep lic a tio n s p er treatm en t. 11. 9 3 Tukey 95% Simultaneous Confidence Intervals All Pairwise Comparisons among Levels of Lab Individual confidence level = 97.0 MS 21.. One-way ANOVA: mg/dl ve rsu s Lab Source Lab Error Total DF 2 12 14 S = 5..0 0. .820 6..1 5 6 7 s V8 11 ..6 422 .444 0.878s V5 V5 b c o = q m ( 6...260 6. ( 4 .2 4 a n d Ho is rejected .60 R-Sq = 9.^ = 2 .0 7.0 7.15% Mean 108. T h ere is en o u g h e v id e n c e to in d icate a d iffe re n c e in the a v e ra g e p ric e s fo r th e fo u r States.. +-----.. T h e M i n i t a b p rin to u t belo w sh o w s the a n a ly sis o f v a rian ce fo r this ex p erim en t. 1 2 ) ..--.47 6 ... 933 Level 1 2 3 N 5 5 5 SS 42.94% Lab = 1 subtracted from: Lab Lower Center Upper 2 -13.4 4 .0 ---) 104.0 110 -7.^ = 4 .+ ------..70 P 0.^ = 1. -.824 -3.0 Pooled StDev = 5 ..264 -3.562 R-Sq(adj) Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on Pooled StDev ....---.01 3 .+ ----.744 14.0 0...+ ----(---------) (------- (------ 100.04 105.5 465...05 and 3 and 16 d f is ap p ro x im a te ly F > 3 .0 108.2 F 0. 2 0 .....3 35 .564 -7.

Source T re atm e n ts B locks E rro r T o tal 11. S o u rce T reatm en ts B locks E rro r T o tal a df 3 2 6 11 SS 2 5 .42 F 4.33 SS 11.C M = 6 2 + 1 0 2 +••■ + 142 .4444 111 . o r u se the fo llo w in g calc u la tio n s: (I* y ) CM = 4 n (1 1 3 )“ ^ = 1 0 6 4 .5 8 3 3 120.6667 2.5 8 3 3 3 3 S S B = I í .60 w ith p -v a lu e = . b T o te st the d iffe re n c e a m o n g b lo c k m ean s.6 6 6 7 148.7 6 .4 17.S S T . th e test statistic is F = M SB = 6 0 3333 M SE . = / / 2 = //? is F = .9 1 6 6 7 T2 SST = I .2 4 2 .S S B = 2 ..75 T o test the d ifferen c e a m o n g trea tm e n t m ean s.01 2. 11.C M = 1 2 1 3 -C M = 1 4 8 .7 0 3.42 1. NotiCe th at all th re e in terv als g e n erated b y M i n i t a b co n tain zero . T h e resu lts are n o t sig n ific a n t and H 0 is n o t re je cte d .C M = 33~ + 2 5 2 + 5 5 ~ . T h e m ean sq u ares a re fo u n d as M S = S S / d f .66667 and 4 4 S S E = T o tal SS . th ere is no need to use T u k e y ’s test to search fo r the p a irw ise d iffe re n c e s.a T h e an aly sis o f v aria n c e F te st fo r H 0 : //.9167 MS 8. b S in ce the tre atm e n t m ean s are no t sig n ific a n tly d ifferen t.7 17 MS 5.6667 C a lc ú la te M S = S S / d f and c o n so líd a te th e in fo rm a tio n in an A N O V A table.05 and 3 a n d 6 d f is F > 4 .28.4 4 4 4 F 19.1 df 2 5 10 14.3 3 3 3 0 . T h e re is in su fficien t e v id e n c e to in d ícate a d iffe re n c e in th e tre a tm en t m eans.19 135. T h e re is a sig n ifican t d iffe re n c e a m o n g th e tre atm e n t m eans.C .08333 12 T o ta l SS = X x 2 .562 . T h e g iv en su m s o f sq u ares are in se rte d a n d m issin g en trie s fou n d by su b tractio n .29 R efer to E x e rc ise 11.5 2 7 8 6 0 .41 U se M i n it a b to o b ta in an A N O V A p rin to u t. in d icatin g th a t the p a irs c a n n o t be ju d g e d differen t.C M = 2 5 . th e te st sta tistic is P _ M S T _ ^ 5 2 8 _ ]9 19 M SE .4444 and the rejectio n reg ió n w ith a = .C M 3 222 + 3 4 2+ 2 7 2 + 3 0 2 = ~U .C M = 120.

3 3 2 or .3 3 3 .03J — r— = 2. 3 3 2 < / i A .8000 11. c \s F > 5 .3 7 S im ila r to p rev io u s ex erc ise s.3 3 3 ) ± 2 .3 3 9 . 90 112 12 .1 1 .5 .x B) ± t M SE ( 7 .05 and 2 and 6 d f sig n ifican t d iffe re n c e am o n g the blo ck m eans. 7 .60 13 .58583 40 . Chem icals Source DF F SS MS P Blocks 2 7.2 .1 4 .5350 Total 11 12 .225 10. 85% R-:Sq (adj) = 92.71 yjn. V 3 T h e ran k ed m eans are show n below . T h e v ariatio n d u e to blo ck d ifferen ces can be iso la ted u sin g the ra n d o m iz e d b lo ck d esig n .90 12. ÍA V Ñ ÍSE 1.'ZhOO 12.2986 R-■Sq = 95.an d Ihe reje c tio n regió n w ith a = .4 4 4 4 -4 1 1 .4000 12.2000 19.875 12. n. T h e M i n it a b p rin to u t fo r this ra n d o m iz ed b lo ck e x p e rim e n t is show n below . Two-way ANOVA: Measurements ve rsu s Blocks. T h e re is a W ith k = 4 .0 0 10.30 .00 11.1717 3.44 1.3333 11 .700 12. d f = 6 .000 Chemicals 3 5.21 0. = 3 . 11 . b lo c k in g h as been effectiv e.f i B < .33 -*l X2 -^4 d T h e 9 5 % co n fid en c e interv al is ( x A .6 6 8 e S in ce th e re is a sig n ifican t d iffe re n c e am o n g the b lo ck m ean s.4 4 7 ^ .4444 a ) =<im ( 4 *6) r = 7.40% Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on Pooled StDev Blocks 1 2 3 Mean 10.002 Error 6 0.73333 0.20 11.9067 S = 0.20 11.08917 0.60 Individual 95% CIs For Mean Based on Pooled StDev Chemicals 1 2 3 4 Mean 11.50 11.

Two-way ANOVA: Cost v e rsu s Estimator.33 X. T h e a n aly sis o f v a rian c e tab le is fo u n d in the M i n it a b p rin to u t below .4 33. T h e treatm en t m e a n s c a n b e fu rth er co m p a re d u sin g T u k e y ’s test w ith a>= q m ( 3 . S in ce the four C hem icals re p re se n t the trea tm en ts in th is e x p erim en t. T u k e y 's te st can be u sed to d ete rm in e w h ere the d iffe re n c e s lie: .1 8 7 5 = 1 -885 3 4.34% Estimator A B C Mean 32 .80 x^ T h e Chem ical falls in to tw o sig n ifica n tly d iffe re n t g ro u p s . Jo b DF Source SS MS F P Estimator 2 10.20 0.4308 7. 11. 11..46% R-Sq(adj) = 84. v ariatio n d u e to th e in teractio n A x B is iso lated from SSE . c In a factorial ex p erim e n t. T h e so u rces o f v ariatio n a n d a sso ciated d e g re e s o f freed o m are g iv e n on the next page.8 36.8875 E stim a to rs A a n d B sh o w a sig n ific an t d iffe re n c e in av erag e costs. = 434 T h e ran k ed m ean s a re show n below . 8617 5.6 1 2 5 3 4 .8875 34.+ ----------+ _ (-------.★ ----32. 3 2 .41 A ran d o m iz ed blo ck d esig n h as been u sed w ith “e stim a to rs” as treatm e n ts and “c o n stru c tio n j o b ” as th e b lo c k facto r.6 34.9973 11 S = 0.1875 Individual 95% CIs For Mean Pooled StDev ------.08917 = T h e ra n k ed m ean s are sh o w n b elo w .45 a -b T h e re a re 4 x 5 = 2 0 trea tm e n ts an d 4 x 5 x 3 = 6 0 total o b serv atio n s.003 Error 6 4 .025 Job 3 37. Xj 12.A a n d C v e rsu s B an d D.20 11.8687 R-Sq = 91.. - y ~ r~ = 11.61 0.5283 0.-. 113 .0 B o th treatm en ts an d b lo ck s are sig n ifican t.5358 16.B o th the treatm en t and b lo c k m ean s are sig n ific a n tly d ifferen t..40 12.> /M S É m = q<* 1.*---------) (-------(----.6125 34 . 6073 12.7547 Total 52 .

th e re is a stro n g in te ractio n p resen t b e tw een facto rs A a n d B. the effect o f fa c to r A d e p e n d s u p o n the lvel o f fa c to r B at w hich A is m easu red . d N o.0 0 0 fro m the M i n i t a b p rin to u t.9 114 .C M = 10574. .C M = 2 4 6 7 2 5 .49 Source df A B A xB E rro r 3 4 12 40 T o tal 59 a B ased on the fact that the m ean resp o n se fo r the tw o lev els o f facto r B b e h av es very d iffe re n tly d e p e n d ín g o n the lev el o f facto r A u n d er in v e stig a tio n .4 20 iC = 6 0 0 12 + 6 8 8 6 2 + 6 6 7 4 2 + 4 8 7 12 10 . a test o f th e m ain -effe ct term s p ro d u c e s a n o n -sig n ifican t result.= 14923065. A sig n ifican t in terac tio n in d icates th at the effect o f o n e facto r d e p e n d s u p o n the lev el o f th e other.5 3 a T h e d esig n is a 2 x 4 facto rial ex p e rim e n t w ith r = 5 rep lic atio n s. G e n d e r and S ch o o l. H enee. th e m ain effe c t m ean s (av e ra g ed o v e r th e lev els o f th e o th e r factor) d iffe r o n ly slig h tly . T h e re is ev id e n c e o f a sig n ifican t in teractio n .6 40 T o tal SS = 15281392 .C M = 3 5 8 3 2 6 . T h e re are tw o facto rs. T h a t is. E ach facto r-lev el co m b in a tio n sh o u ld be in v estig a te d in d iv id u ally .1. b T h e test statistic fo r in te ra ctio n is F = M S ( A B ) /M S E = 3 7 .S S ( S c ) . e A n sw e rs w ill vary.S S G . b T h e a n aly sis o f v arian c e tab le can be fo u n d u sin g a C om puter p rin to u t o r the fo llo w in g calcu latio n s: S ch o o ls G ender 1_____ 2______ 3______ 4 T o tal M ale F em ale T o tal 2919 3082 6001 3257 3 629 6886 3330 3344 6674 2461 2410 4871 11967 12465 24432 ?44322 C M = ----------. c In ligh t o f th is ty p e o f in teractio n .8 5 w ith p -v a lu e = .8 . o n e at tw o lev els and one at fo u r levels.

19 32 9 4 8 2 5 .0 9 w ith F os = 4 . A ltern ately . o J f L yjn. T h e is a sig n ifica n t e ffe c t d u e to schools.? is n o t re jec ted .1 0 0 F 2 .8 10574.005 ).0 9 3 3 2 4 6 7 2 5 .1 MS 6 2 0 0 .1 *4 82.63 6 6 7 .9 6 7 2 7 .0 1 . 3 2 ) ^ 4 . 487. d Y o u can see in th e in teractio n p lo t th at th ere is a sm all d iffe re n c e b etw ee n the a v e ra g e sco res fo r m ale an d fem ale stu d en ts at sc h o o ls 1 an d 2. ( 4 . 1 0 . c a lc ú la te „ = í„ .3 0 0 39 T h e test statistic is F = M S ( G S c ) /M S E = 1. H e n e e .4 2 9 6 3 .9 2 (w ith a = .1 7 (o r p -v a lu e > .9 3 3 3 5 2 4 . U sin g T u k e y ’s m eth o d o f p a ire d co m p a riso n s w ith a = .4 6 8 8 . y o u c a n b o u n d the p -v a lu e > .9 8 2 2 4 1 .19 and th e re je c tio n reg ió n is F > 2 .7 5 1. V 10 T h e ra n k e d m ean s are sh o w n below .1 600.05 ). b u t n o d iffe re n c e te e T h e test statistic fo r testin g g e n d er is F = 2 . T h e re is in su ffícien t ev id en c e to in d ícate in te ra c tio n b e tw e e n gende a n d schools.11 T h e te st statistic fo r sch o o ls is F = 2 7 .7 5 w ith F 05 = 2 .S ou rce G Se G xSc E rro r T o tal c df 1 SS 6200.6 *3 x2 115 .9 2 (o r p -v a lu e < .6 3 5 8 3 2 6 .

05 3 .4 0 .10 2.41 a T h e test statistic is F = M S ( A B ) /M S E = 1.40 an d the rejec tio n reg ió n is F > 3 . the fo llo w in g critical v alú es are obtained. so th at p -v a lu e > .025 4 . F a c to r B a lso affeets th e response. 1 1 . T h e c o m p le te A N O V A tab le is sh o w n below . T h e fo u r p e o p le u sed in the e x p e rim e n t act as b lo ck s.2 6 .14 1 1. b T h e M i n it a b C om puter p rin to u t is sh o w n on the next page.1 2 ) — — = 4 .29 7 . A ra n d o m iz e d blo ck d e sig n is used. c T h e test statistic fo r testin g fa c to r A is F = 6. a T h e F statistic to d e te c t a d iffe re n c e d u e to stim u li is = ^ f I = 2 7 .5 9 w ith p -v a lu e = .37 w ith Fm = 3 . d T h e test statistic fo r fa c to r B is F = 7.54 .61 . b lo c k in g has been effectiv e.2 4 5 1. and the an aly sis o f varian ce tab le is g iv en in the p rin to u t. w ith w eek s re p rese n tin g b lo c k s and sto res as treatm ents.4 0 .525 c A .11.1 7 5 T otal 29 8. 5 l J — — = .66 T h e o b serv ed valué o f F is less th an F 1().6 3 T h is is sim ilar to p rev io u s ex erc ises.007 .00708 in n ú) = q os( 5 .7 B .2 0 0 .51 B 2 2.3 7 2 A xB 0 .0 0 0 .4 9 0 .025 C 1.58 1. E . in an a tte m p t to isolate the v ariation from p erso n to p erso n . 10 . T h ere is in su ffic ie n t e v id e n c e to in d icate an in teractio n . T h e re is a sig n ific a n t d iffe re n c e in the e ffe c t o f the five stim uli. Source SS MS F df A 1.005 6. 1 1. T h e re is e v id en c e that fac to r A affee ts the resp o n se.01 5.8 D 1.4 0 . T h e blo ck d ifferen ces are sig n ifican t. a . b T h e treatm en t m ean s c a n be fu rth e r c o m p a red u sin g T u k e y ’s test w ith .59 T h e o b jectiv e is to d e te rm in e w h eth e r o r not m ean reactio n tim e d iffe rs fo r the five stim uli. '9 0 V "r V 4 T h e ran k ed m eans are sh o w n below .67 a T h e d esign is a ra n d o m ize d b lo ck d esig n .05 T h e F te st for blo ck s p ro d u c e s F = 6 . 116 .40 E rror 24 4 . c i M > /M S É „ C1 ¡. b U sing T a b le 6 w ith d f = 2 and d f 2 = 24 .7 8 M SE w ith p -v a lu e = .14 6.51 w ith F ()5 = 4 .3 2 .

82 T h e ra n k ed m ean s are sh o w n below .71 3 2 5 4 .71 8 . T h e nuil h y p o th e sis is re je c te d and w e co n clu d e th at th ere is a sig n ific an t d iffe re n c e in the a v erag e p e rc e n ta g e o f iro n o x id e at th e th ree sites.0 3 2 a>= qtí5 (5 .^ V M S E . e ac h h a v in g a d iffe re n t n u m b e r o f m easu rem en ts.570 0. c T h e d ia g n o stic p lo ts a re sh o w n on the next p ag e.43 w ith p -v a lu e = .950 0.1 8 11.7221 SS MS 132.63% T h e F test fo r tre atm e n ts has a test statistic F = 126.003 . T h ere is a sig n ifican t d iffe re n c e in the a v e ra g e w eek ly to tals fo r th e five su p erm ark ets.36% F 126.43 0 .9 9 a T h e d e sig n is a c o m p lete ly ran d o m iz ed d esig n w ith th ree sam p le s.227 R-Sq = 92. te .— = 10.003 684.799 c F SS MS P 571.003 276.64 171.1 9 2 5 2 . n = 4 .5 i y — .1 2 ) . b U se the c o m p u tin g fo rm u las in S ectio n 11.139 10.032 1532.j = = 4 . T h ere ap p ea rs to be n o v io latio n o f the n o rm ality assu m p tio n s.5 o r th e M i n it a b p rin to u t below .73 R-Sq = 81. 1 5 4 2 4 0 .159 7 . One-way ANOVA: Iron ve rsu s Site Source DF Site 2 Error 21 Total 23 S = 0. T h e p -v a lu e is sm all en o u g h to a llo w re je c tio n o f H 0. d f = \2.8 7 2 256 . Store DF Source Week 3 Store 4 Error 12 Total 19 S = 4.45% T h e F test fo r tre a tm e n ts is F = 7. 117 .000 R-Sq(adj) = 91. (2 3 .277 66.85 P 0. d W ith k = 5 .97% R-Sq(adj) = 71.85 w ith p -v a lu e = .Two-way ANO VA: Total ve rsu s Week.38 23.521 143.000. ju d g in g by th e d iffe rin g b a r w id th s ab o v e and b elo w th e c e n te r line.2 3 2 4 9 .27 190. the v a rian ces m ay be u n eq u al.

Normal Probability P lo to f the Residual! ( r e s p o n s e is Iron) 118 .

a p ro b ab ilistic m ath e m atica l m odel is one th a t c o n ta in s ra n d o m e le m e n ts w ith sp ecific p ro b a b ility d istrib u tio n s.9 a C alcú late = 8 5 0 . = 4 4 3 . y = 2 (0 ) + 1 = 1 W hen x = 1. ? . y = 2 (2 ) + 1 = 5 T h e g rap h is sh o w n below .7 5 5 = 1 0 1 . T h e valué o f the re sp o n se y in th is m o d el is not e x actly d eterm in ed . the slo p e o f the lin e is /? = 2 and th e y -in te rc e p t is a = 1.7 7 2 7 n=9 .5 A d eterm in istic m ath e m a tic a l m o d el is a m odel in w h ich the v alu é o f a resp o n se y is e x a ctly p re d ic te d from v alú es o f the v aria b le s th a t a ffec t the resp o n se.9 4 1 4 6 7 T h en S *> = _ ( £ * .1 T h e line co rresp o n d in g to the e q u a tio n y = 2 x +1 can be g caphed by lo catin g the y v alú es c o rre sp o n d in g to x = 0 . >• = 2(1) -1-1=3 W hen x = 2 .4 9 5 . 1.12: Linear Regression and Correlation 12. 12. W hen x = 0.7 8 £ y f = 1 . ) ( £ » ) = 88 8 0 0 0 3 333 119 I * .8 2 > . T h u s. and 2. 12. = 3 . N o te th at the e q u atio n is in th e form y = a + J3x. O n the o th e r hand.

0 6 6 . T h e g ra p h o f the least sq u ares line and th e n ine d a ta p o in ts are sh o w n below .0 6 6 .0 0 4 2 1 5 1 6 (9 4 .S S R = S page.L = .± .1 8 7 T h e least sq u ares lin e is y = a + b x = 0 .2 . the v alu é fo r y can be p re d ic te d u sin g the least sq u a re s line as y = 0 .8 2 n 2 b-c = 88-800033 = ft0 ()4 2 S_„ 21 0 6 6 .4 4 C alcúlate SSR = ( ^ S„ = m 0 3 3 3 3 ) l = 3743064 2 1 .s ** = Z x ? ~ ^ X¡^ = 2 1 . 120 .4 1 7 2 2 -0 .0 0 0 4 9 1 1 8 $xx T h e A N O V A table w ith 1 d f fo r re g re ssio n and n .2 d f fo r e rro r is sh o w n on the next S S E = T o tal SS .8 2 and (5 l2 .b x = 0 . d W h en x = 1 0 0 .8 2 and a = y .3 7 4 7 9 7 6 .0 0 4 2 (1 0 0 ) = 0 . R em em b er th at the m ean sq u ares are calc u la ted as M S = S S / d f .3 7 4 3 0 6 4 1 7 = .5 3 3 3 ) = 0 .1 8 7 + 0 .0 0 4 2 * ..1 8 7 + 0 .

3 7 4 7 9 7 6 . c W h en x = 85.b x = 4 8 .6667 .3 7 4 3 0 6 a T h e sca tte rp lo t g e n e ra ted b y M i n it a b is sh o w n below .6 6 5 + 0.4 6 6 7 ) = -1 1 . the v alu é fo r y can be p re d ic te d u sin g the least sq u a re s line as 121 .7 3 3 3 and a = y .13 di 1 7 SS .7 5 5 0 2 )(7 9 .3 3 3 3 -(0 . T he a ssu m p tio n o f b C a lcú late I-* =1192 I * £ x 2 = 9 6 .3 7 4 3 0 6 4 MS .1 1 .3333 --------= .75502 b = -2 .3 2 9 n = 15 T hen 5 = Y xy -Í5^1í5iil = 1710.2 Sa = y xf = 2 2 6 5 .S o u rce R eg ressio n E rro r T o tal 12.0 0 0 4 9 1 2 .9 9 0 =725 £ y 2 = 3 6 .7 3 3 3 n 2 1419. T h e least sq u ares lin e is y = a + fox = .4 6 1 = 5 9 .6 6 5 (u sin g full accu racy ).755*.0000010 8 .= S„ 2 2 6 5 .

12.1 8 2 )2 = t 2 12.5 1 = 0 ^ 2 7 1 5 3 a = y .755( 85) = 5 2 .9 9 9 Y .6 6 7 : = 2 1 .665 + .5 3 0 T hen \2 = 1 2 .17 T h e h y p o th esis to be tested is a H 0 : (1 = 0 v ersu s H a : /? * 0 and the te st statistic is a S tu d e n t's t.\ \ .6.2 .5 3 3 3 w hich is the sq u are o f the t statistic from p art a: r = ( 5 .1 2 7 1 5 3 (1 1 9 6 .0 5 is |?| > t m = 3 .3 1 4 = 1 . 122 .2 = 3 d e g re es o f freed o m a n d th e reje c tio n reg ió n for a = 0 .5 6 9 .0 1 1 .1 8 2 .7 6 3 .9 3 4 n = 18 x iy¡ ~ ^ ) ( ^ ^ } = ^ 5 2 7 ^2 4 5 . w h ile the c ritica l v alu é o f F c fro m p a rt b w ith d f = 1 and d f 2 = 3 is F 05 = 10.5 1 .57699 a n d the least sq u ares lin e is y = a + b x = 128. = . = 7 .2 0 )2 = 2 7 .1 2 7 1 5 3 * . S in ce the o b se rv e d v alu é o f t falls in the rejectio n reg ió n .13 = (3 .7 8 n S /.13 . calc ú la te f = M S R = J ± 4 _ = 2 7 0 () M SE 0. x is u sefu l in the p re d ictio n o f y.6 9 5 . T h e critical v alué o f t from p a rt a w as t m5 = 3 . x f = 3 7 .0 4 1 .57699 + 0 . N o tice th at the rela tio n sh ip b etw een the tw o critical v alú es is F = 10.21 a T h e d ep en d en t v a riab le (to be p re d ic te d ) is >’ = co st an d the in d e p en d e n t v a riab le is x = distance.1 8 2 .0 V 0-533/10 T h e critical valué o f t is b ased o n n . c a lc u la te d as b -/3 0 _ Vm se J s 2 1 . T h a t is.0 . w e reject H0 and co n c lu d e th a t /? * 0 . b P relim in a ry calc u latio n s: =5052 ^ x j .1 1 1 1 ) = 128.b x = 2 8 0 .y = a + b x = . b F rom the A N O V A tab le in E x e rc ise 12.6 6 6 7 -0 .

25 a T h e sca tte rp lo t g e n erated b y M i n it a b is sh o w n on the n ex t p ag e.4 1 0 5 5 1 2 .8 1 1 .0 0 6 .= 8 3 .0% = 1 .6 6 7 )" = 2 7 8 .= — -----. T h a t is.0 1 1 .3755 69. 0 0 6 .6 +0.¿ . and H 0 is rejected .9 3 4 - = 2 7 8 .1272 x s R-Sq R-Sq(adJ) d C a lc ú la te T o tal SS = S y y = ' £ y ? .— ------------------.5 2 7 .7 8 SSF 83 811 41055 and M S E = -------.2 = 16 d eg re e s o f fre e d o m an d th e reje c tio n reg ió n fo r a = 0 . T h e line a p p ea rs to fit w ell th ro u g h the 18 d a ta poii Fitted Line Plot y = 128. T h e a ssu m p tio n o f lin earity is reaso n ab le.0 5 is |/| > t m = 2 .6 9 5 .2 16 H 0 : [3 = 0 v ersu s H a : /? * 0 and the te st statistic is t_ b -P Q ^M S E /S „ O 0 .2 4 5 .= 5 2 3 8 .7 8 T h e critical valué o f t is b ased on « .1197151 2 7 1 5 3—.0 1 1 . T h e h y p o th esis to be tested is n. 123 .09 V5 2 3 8 -213/1 2 . 12.1 2 0 .c T h e p lo t is sh o w n b elo w .9% 68. the re g re ssio n m odel y = a + f i x + e is usefu l in p red ic tin g c o st y.2 1 3 .0 4 1 .0 4 1 . T h e re is e v id e n c e at tf 5 % level to in d ícate th at x and y a re lin early related .1---------.^ i L n 72. 18 T hen (5 „ ) SSE = 5 ” S (1 .00 = 6.

2617 + 0 .0 1 . free o f an y pattern s. T h e p lo t sh o u ld a p p e a r as a ra n d o m sc a tte r o f points.7 7 6 8 < /? < 1.1 2 5 3 ) => 1.49 Vm se f s „ w ith p -v a lu e = . b T h e fit o f the lin e ar m odel is v ery g o o d .9 5 9 in d ic ate s th a t 9 5 . T h a t is.0 0 0 .2 9 U se a p lo t o f re sid u als v ersu s fits. a ssu m in g th at this is in d e e d the c o rre c t m odel for this d ata set.8 7 8 (0 . final ex am sco res an d p o sttest sc o re s are linearly related. c W hen w e lo o k at the re sid u a ls th ere is a stro n g c u rv ilin e a r p attern th at has not b een ex p lain ed by the straig h t lin e m odel. w e re je c t H 0 and co n clu d e that /? * 0 .2 6 .r b ~ P Q = = 1.2617 ± 2 . d T h e 9 9% co n fid en ce interv al fo r th e slope /? is b ± t a/2yl M S E / S a => 1.Scatter plot o f Final Exam v s Posttest 100 • • • 90 • E • • 80 • • • • • • • 5 i • ” 60 50 • • • 4070 75 80 85 90 95 100 Posttest b U sin g th e M i n i t a b p rin to u t.7466 .4 8 4 9 o r 0 . b T h e fit o f the reg re ssio n lin e. 124 . T h e re la tio n sh ip b e tw een tim e in m o n th s an d n u m b er o f b e o k s ap p ears to be cu rv ilin ear. 1 2 . there a p p e ars to be a slig h t cu rv e to the fiv e points. the stu d en t m ig h t n o tice a slig h t c u rv a tu re to the d ata points. c T h e h y p o th esis to be tested is Hn :p = 0 v ersu s H a : /? * 0 and th e te st statistic is a S tu d e n t’s t.9 % o f the o v erall v ariation ca n b e e x p la in e d b y th e stra ig h t lin e m odel. m ea su red as r 2 = 0 . ca lc u la te d as t = .2 6 1 7 * .8 2 + 1 .3 3 a I f you lo o k carefu lly . th e e q u atio n o f the re g re ssio n line is y = .3 9 a A lth o u g h very slig h t. 12 . 12 . S in ce the p -v a lu e is le ss th an a = .

7 8 9 + 14.= 0.42 a a U se a C om puter p ro g ra m o r the h and c a lc u la tio n s sh o w n below .= 2 9 .= _ _ = 14.172*.1 3 3 £ y 2 = 4 6 7 .^ — ^ 2 .7 8 9 and the le a st sq u ares lin e is y = . H o w ev e r.= 1 1 6 =2818 ¿*= 1480 ¿ > . R e s id u a ls V e r s u s the F itte d V a lú e s (response is Total Yante) • 5040 3020s io - • • -10-20 -30 • 150 200 250 Htted Valué 125 300 350 . b T h e p ro p o rtio n o f the total v ariatio n e x p la in e d by reg ressio n is S~ 179 7 2 r2= — 3 .b x = 2 9 6 -1 4 .c T h e n o rm al p ro b ab ility p lo t fo llo w s the c o rre c t p attern fo r the a ssu m p tio n o f n o rm ality .6 0 0 n=5 T h en n ■ S „ = 2 > .2 ) = .8 6 2 7 S X XS m (1 2 6 .8 X 2 9 . T h e p lo ts d o m sh o w any stro n g v io latio n o f a ssu m p tio n s.2 .3 2 .8 a = y .= — ---------.— n ^ .= 126.8 2 S = V v2 .3 2 . in dicatin¿ th at a q u a d ra tic ra th c r th an a lin ea r m odel m ay have been the c o rre c t m o d el fo r this data.2 .5 2 0 n 1797 b = . th e re sid u a ls sh o w th e pattern o f a q u a d ra tic cu rv e.1 7 1 9 2 ( 2 3 . g e n erate d by M i n it a b are sh o w n b elo w . 12. £ > .5 2 0 ) yv c T h e d ia g n o stic p lo ts.* = 3 6 .17192 S„ 126.

T h e p o in t e stim a to r fo r y w h en x = 21 is still y = . = 29520- 1797' = 4 0 5 3 .^(SJ L L .0 1 7 3 5 1 ( 2 1 .7 8 9 + 1 4 .1 4 3 134.42 and calc ú late S S E = S .8 2 3 ± 3 .+ — 2A --------- 1 (21 .3 2 .0 7 9 or b 2 0 7 .1 8 2 ^ 1 3 5 1 . ti —2 3 T h e p o in t estim a to r fo r E ( y ) w hen x = 21 is an d M S E = y = .8 2 6 4 .1 7 2 (2 1 ) = 2 6 4 .8 2 3 a n d the 95% co n fid en c e interv al is 2A $ ± f 0 2 5 jM S E 2 6 4 .1 8 2 .1 7 2 (2 1 ) = 2 6 4 .2 3 .7 8 9 + 14.01735.9 6 6 .3 2 .1 2.43 R efer to E x ercise 12.2 3 . 1 (tp -x ) n S„ 1+ .8 2 3 ± 57. /l 351 . . 2 ) 2 ^ 2 6 4 .8 2 3 an d the 9 5 % p red ictio n in terv al is M SE .0 1 7 3 5 1 + .2 ) 5+ 126.0 5 2 0 5 = 1351.680 < > '< 3 9 4 .9 0 2 .0 5 2 0 5 1268 a SSE 4 0 5 3 .82 3 ± 1 3 0 . 126 .8 2 3 ± 3 .8 or 2 6 4.+ 5 126.7 4 4 < E ( y ) < 3 2 1 .

5- • >. A p p ro x im a te ly T h en r = V io 9 0 % o f th e total su m o f sq u ares o f d e v ia tio n s w as re d u c ed by u sin g the lea st sq u ares e q u a tio n in ste a d o f y as a p re d ic to r o f y. T h ere sh o u ld be a p o sitiv e co rrelatio n . 127 .51 W h en th e p re -te st sco re x is h ig h . th e p o st-te st sco re y sh o u ld also be h ig h .0 - 2 .0 - 3.c T h is w o u ld n o t be ad v isa b le . Scatterplot of y vs x • 4.í f =4 = 0 .0 - • - • 2 - 1 0 1 2 X b C alcú late S „ = ^ .9 4 8 7 and r 2 = (0 .47 a R e fe r to fig u re below . 12. 3 .5 - 2 .9 0 0 0 .9 4 8 7 )2 = 0 . T h e sam p le c o rre la tio n c o e ffic ie n t w ill be p o sitiv e.^ . 12. sin c e y o u are try in g to e stím a te o u tsid e the ra n g e o f e x p e rim e n ta ro n .y = 10 = « .1 0 .

( 0 .^ Sv T. 70 .7 6 0 ) 2 T h e reje c tio n reg ió n fo r a = 0.. th e jn e th o d s o f c o rrelatio n ra th e r th an lin e a r re g re ssio n a n a ly sis sh o u ld be used. 5 8 5 = 733.42857 n 7 4 6 8 .4 2 8 5 7 (7 3 3 .55 a S in ce n eith er o f the tw o v a ria b les. is c o n tro lle d . T h e re is su fficien t e v id en c e to in d ícate p o sitiv e co rrelatio n . T h en r = . y o u r scien tific c a lc u la to r o r th e c o m p u tin g fo rm u las g iv en in the text to calc ú late th e c o rre la tio n c o e ffic ie n t r.4 2 8 5 7 n _ .. 1 2. 128 .7 6 0 . ^ 5 1 7 . 9 9 3 .C alcú late .= 5 1 7 .0 1 5 a n d H 0 is re jec ted . b U se a C om puter p ro g ra m .= = 6 5 ..4 2 8 5 7 s *x n ^ Syy = Z X2 . T h e M i n i t a b p rin to u t for th is d a ta set is sh o w n o n the n ex t page.O I ^ y l\.4 2 8 5 7 7 y‘ ^ = 7 4 .^ Z p = 4 6 8 ._ rV ^ 2 _ í r VI .. am o u n t o f so d iu m o r n u m b e r o f c a lo rie s.7 6 0 ./5 „ — «Z. = 0 .^ .r 2 i 0 .4 2 8 5 7 ) T h e te st o f h y p o th esis is H0 : p = 0 v ersu s Ha :p > 0 and th e test statistic is . 0 0 6 .05 is t > tM = 2 .

c T h e least sq u ares lin e is y = 2 1. b T h e c o e fficie n t o f d e te rm in a tio n is r 2 = 0.24 15. sin ce th e p -v a lu e is so sm al T h e co rrela tio n is po sitiv e.70 P 0.12= 1<05. T h e resid u al p lo t v ersu s th e fítted v alú es sh o w s th is p h e n o m e n o n a s a “ fo o tb a ll-sh ap e d ” p attern .000 0.9530 S = 3.n= ^ 2.961 (o r 9 6. = | . th e p ro p o rtio n o f n em atoi k illed fo r a p a rtic u la r a p p lic a tio n rate.9 + 15.2 3496.502 14.867 + 1 4:9 6 6 7 x .980 P-Value = 0.2 MS 3360.i 78 .980. A tran sfo rm a t m ay be n e e d e d to assu re that the re g ressio n assu m p tio n s are satisfied.3 2 3 =Y x? . 2 3 3 .0 13. y Pearson correlation of x and y = 0. T h e n orm al p ro b a h ility also sh o w s so m e d e v ia tio n from n o rm ality in the tails o f th e plo t. Regression A nalysis: y ve rsu s x The regression equation is y = 21.6 5 a U se a C om puter p ro g ram .64 P 0.69098 R-Sq = 96.5028i( f 5 6 ) = 3 7 .000 Correlations: x.0 x Predictor Constant x Coef SE Coef 21. Calories Pearson correlation of Sodium and Calories = 0. d W e w ish to e stím a te th e m ean p e rc e n ta g e o f kill fo r an a p p lic a tio n o f 4 po i o f n em a tic id e p e r acre. T h e M i n i t a b o u tp u t for this lin ea r re g re ssio n p ro b le m is sho b elo w .1% T 6.21'2.7% Analysis of Variance Source Regression Residual Error Total DF 1 10 11 SS 3360.000 a T h e c o rre la tio n c o e ffic ie n t is r = 0.6 F 246.000 R-Sq(adj) = 95.867 3. y o u r scien tific c a lc u la to r o r the c o m p u tin g fo rm i g iv en in the te x t to c a lc ú la te th e c o rre latio n c o e ffic ie n t r.0 136. S in ce the p e rc e n t kill y is actu a lly a b in o m ial percen tag e v arian ce o f y w ill c h a n g e d e p e n d in g o n th e v alu é o f p .9667 0. 12.61 A n sw e rs w ill vary.446 Syy = Z y f ~ ~ ~ ~ = 7 2 3 ’882 ~ 129 = 4 4 ’154 .003 T h e re is e v id e n c e o f a h ig h ly sig n ifíc a n t c o rre la tio n .Correlations: Sodium. 9 8 7 .981 P-Value = 0.1% ). 12.

Uoo VI .374 R-Sq(adj) = 0.1 0 I f th e e x p e rim e n te r is w illing to to lérate a p -v a lu e th is larg e.5 4 7 0 )2 = 0 .. — = z.7 107. N o tic e th at the re la tio n sh ip is fairly w eak. S c a tt e r p lo t o f P e r -S ite A v erm g e v s W e e k s in R e í c a s e 7000 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------6000 * 5000 i « 4000 < 9Í 3000 * 2000- 1000 o 6 8 10 12 Weeks h Retease R egression A nalysis. you w o u ld d e cla re the resu lts not sig n ific a n t. 1 2 .000 -0. b r~ = (0 . th ere is in su fficie n t e v id en c e to in d icate that b en d in g stiffn ess and tw istin g stiffn ess are p o sitiv e ly co rrelated .98 x Predictor Constant x S = 1657.0 6 6 ) b o u n d ed as 0.0 -97.69 a T h e p lo t is show n below .83 P 0. O th erw ise.2 9 9 2 so th at 2 9 .23 Coef SE Coef 3091.4 4 6 (4 4 .9 % o f the total v ariatio n in y ca n be ex p lain ed by the in d ep en d e n t v ariab le x.374 .T hen r = ^ = ^ _____ ^ l 323 = 0 .r yj\-(0 M 1 0 )2 w ith p -v a lu e = P (t > 2 . V 1'°5 .1 5 4 ) T h e te st o f h y p o th e sis is H0 :p = 0 v ersu s Ha :p > 0 an d the test statistic is r y f ñ —2 0 .4 701.91 0.5 4 7 0 .0 5 < p -v a lu e < 0 .2 R-Sq = 4.5 4 7 0 V Í0 „ l = —■ = .4% T P 4.0% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS Regression 1 2282896 Residual Error 18 49435210 Total 19 51718106 MS 2282896 2746401 130 F 0. then Ho can be rejected . . The regression equation is v = 3091 .41 0.

.= 2 8 7 .0 4 4 . 12.87 X 2 .— = 500 10 n 1 *) n = 1 1 2 0 . S o u rce R eg ressio n E rro r T o tal df 1 8 9 SS 2 8 7 .7 5 8 )(1 5) = 20. = 91 2 > £ n = 10 y? = 1 1 2 0 .3 7 4 )..7 5 8 x .2 = 2 7 5 0 2 > .b x = 9 .0 4 . b S in ce T o ta l SS = S yy = 2 9 1 .47 and the le a st sq u ares lin e is y = a + b x = 2 0 . 1 . th e re g re ssio n e q u a tio n is y = 3 0 9 1 .9 4 -3 7 9 b = — = — — = .73 a T h e c a lc u la tio n s sh o w n b e lo w are d o n e u sin g the c o m p u tin g fo rm u las.2 8 2 .7 5 8 S„ 500 a = y .7 * a n d the re g re ssio n is n o t sig n ifica n t (t = -0 .24R F ro m the p rin to u t.2 d f fo r e rro r is sh o w n below .6 5 8 T h e A N O V A ta b le w ith 1 d f fo r reg ressio n and n .0 5.9 7 .6 5 8 2 9 1 .4 .0 Obs 1 10 13 b y 6551 2538 6219 Fit 2994 1527 2603 Residual 3557 1011 3616 SE Fit 613 1180 375 St Resid 2.2 8 2 500 \2 T h en S S E = T o tal S S . 3 IR 0 .— 10 = 2 9 1 .2 8 2 4. A n a p p ro p ria te C om puter p ro g ra m w ill p ro v id e id en tical resu lts to w ithin ro u n d in g e rre X * .0 4 f = 986 T h en 1 5 0 (9 1 )= _ 379 n * 5 “ S » = £ x2 ' = y y? J 10 = 2750 ..Unusual Observations X 1.S S R = 5 (SJ = 4.(.9 4 and 2 SSR = S„ = ( 3 ? 9 ). R e m e m b e r th at the m ean sq u ares are calc u la ted as M S = SS¡ d f . O nly a b o u t 4 % o f t h e o v erall v a ria tio n in y is e x p la in e d by u sin g the lin e a r m odel.58225 . =15° x. d S in ce th e re g ressio n is n o t sig n ific a n t.9 1 w ith p -v a lu e = 0 .0 16. it is n o t ap p ro p ria te to use th e re g re ssio lin e fo r estim a tio n or p red ictio n .9 4 0 131 MS 2 8 7 . c F ro m the p rin to u t. r 2 = 0 .4 7 .

8 5 7 < e < . W h en x = 14. 1 2 .. H a : /? * O . T h e line y = 0 . y o u r scien tific c a lc u la to r o r th e c o m p u tin g fo rm u la s to find the c o rrelatio n b etw een x and y.4 7 .94 T h e total v ariatio n has b een red u c e d by 9 8 .420. 9 .231 P-Value = 0. th e te st statistic is T h e rejectio n reg ió n fo r a = 0 .099 o r .80 a U se a C om puter.3 0 6 an d w e re je c t H 0.5 6 2 o r 9 . T h e re is su fficien t e v id en c e to in d ícate th at x a n d >' are lin e a rly related . S core Pearson correlation of Median Rate and Score = 0.6 5 9 .7 5 8 ( 1 4 ) = 9.2 9 6 < E { y ) < 10.5 8 2 2 5 /5 0 0 => .8 9 6 ^ .5 and a y -in te rc e p t o f 3.5 x + 3 h as a slo p e o f 0 .76-77 U se th e H o w a L in e W o r k s ap p let.5 4 9 w h ich is n o t sig n ific a n t at the 5% lev el o f sig n ific a n c e . w hile th e lin e y = .0 . Y ou c a n n o t co n c lu d e th at th ere is a sig n ifican t p o sitiv e c o rre la tio n b e tw een m e d ia n rate and sco re fo r “b u d g e t” hotels.549 . T h e seco n d line slo p es d o w n w a rd at th e sam e rate as th e first lin e slo p e s u p w ard .7 5 8 ± . T h e M i n it a b c o rre la tio n p rin to u t b e lo w sh o w s r = 0.4 % % b y u sin g th e lin e a r m o d el.5 and a yin tercep t o f 3. f C alcú late _ _ S S R _ _ 2 8 7 2 8 2 _ Q gg4 T o tal SS 2 9 1.7 5 8 ± 2 ..5 x + 3 h as a slo p e o f .. 1 2 ..0 5 is \t\ > t M5 = 2 . o .231 w ith p -v a lu e = 0 .c T o test H 0 : /? = O.8 5 8 ± . the e stím a te o f e x p e c te d fresh n e ss E (y) is y = 2 0 . T hey b o th cro ss th e y ax is at th e sam e point.. Correlations: Median Rate.0 . d T h e 95% co n fid e n c e in terv al fo r th e slo p e (3 is b ± ía/27 M S E ¡ s 2 => .858 and th e 9 5 % c o n fid en c e in terv al is i .

T h e stu d e n t’s p lo t sh o u ld lo o k sim ilar to the M i n i t a b sh o w n below . T h e re is a ra n d o m ser o f p o in ts. w ith no o u tliers. Scatterplot of Score vs Median Rate~ • 80- • 75- • • v 70• 65- • • • 60• 40 42 44 46 48 Median Rate 133 50 52 54 56 .b -c U se th e C o r r e la tio n a n d th e S c a tte r p lo t a p p let.

135 .5 b N o tice th at the lines are p a ra lle l (th ey h av e the sam e slope).37 M SE w h ich has an F d is trib u tio n w ith df¡ = k = 2 and d f 2 = n . T he p -v alu e g iv en in the p rin to u t is P = . this lin e is g iv en by an e q u a tio n o b tain ed as d y / d x . . jc2 = 1. th e sum o f sq u ares o f d e v ia tio n s is re d u c e d by 81. the d e riv a tiv e o f y w ith re sp e ct to x.2 ( 0 ) = x l + 3 .E ( y ) = 3 + * . x1 13. a T h e m odel is q u ad ratic.1 = 1 7 .\ = 2 0 . = p : = 0 H a: at le a st one /?( d iffe rs fro m zero and the test statistic is F = ^ = 37. + 1 . In p articu lar.k .1 a W h en = 2. b S in ce R~ = .2 .5% u sin g the q u ad ratic m o d el ra th e r th an y to p re d ic t y. .E ( y ) = 3 + x l . c T h e h y p o th e sis to be te ste d is H 0 : /?. 13.2 ( 1 ) = x. W hen T h e se th ree straig h t lines are g ra p h ed below .0 0 0 and H 0 is rejected .13: Múltiple Regression Analysis 13. T h e re is e v id e n c e th at the m odel c o n trib u te s in fo rm a tio n fo r the p red ic tio n o f y.8 1 5 . £ (> •) = 3 + * . W hen = 0 .9 a R ate o f in crease is m easu re d by the slope o f a line ta n g e n t to the cu rv e.2 ( 2 ) = -1 .

+ / ? . = 0. g iv en th at cap ita l in v estm e n t is alre ad y in the m odel. T h at is. R .8002 S = 3. T he resu lts are h ig h ly sig n ific a n t.8 . H o w ev er.4343 0.093 2. Q u a litativ e v ariab les a p p e a r o n ly w ith e x p o n e n t 1.28 w ith P = .61 10. the m o d el c o n trib u te s sig n ific a n t in fo rm atio n fo r the p red ictio n o f y. H enee.15 0.16 335.18 + 0. H a: & * 0 an d the test statistic is t = 5 .0 1 . 13.177 4.30335 R-Sq = 82..S q = 8 2 .54 0.0 0 1 .068 5. d F ro m the M i n i t a b p rin to u t.0 0 0 .8.38 Total 9 431.3 % o f the total v ariatio n can be e x p la in e d by the q u a d ratic m odel.91 Source xl x2 DF 1 1 F 16.1 7 7 + 0.292a:.1357 x2 4.19 a T h e v ariable x 2 m u st be the q u a n tita tiv e v ariab le. w h ich m ean s th at 8 2 .94 0. T h e m odel is very effectiv e. is n eg ativ e. b H a: £ < 0 T he individ u al r-test is / = -8 .* dx dx w hich has slo p e 2/3-.292 xl + 4.0 0 0 ) = .05 b T h e F test fo r the o v erall u tility o f the m odel is F = 16. the h y p o th e sis o f in terest is H n :/? 2 = 0 .5 4 w ith p -v alu e = . 3%. T h ere is e v id en c e to in d ícate a d e c rea sin g rate o f in crease.60 MS 177. W e co n clu d e th at a d v e rtisin g e x p e n d itu re c o n trib u te s sig n ifica n t in fo rm a tio n fo r the p red ictio n o f y. since it ap p e a rs as a q u a d ra tic term in the m odel. alth o u g h they 136 .2921 0. the h y p o th e sis o f in terest is ' H 0 : /?.1 1 as in E x ercise 13.001 R-Sq(adj) = 77.22 Residual Error 7 76.2% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS Regression 2 355. S in ce a = . w hich m ean s th at the p -v a lu e is h a lf o f the a m o u n t g iv en in the p rin to u t.8b. H en ee. + 4. c T o test the effe c t o f ad v e rtisin g ex p e n d itu re . the te st is o ne- tailed.002 .43 x2 Predictor Coef SE Coef Constant -8.* + A * 2) = f l+ 2 /¡ . T he least sq u ares lin e is y = .3% T P -1. then the rate o f in crease is d ecreasin g .434a:2 Regression Analysis: y v e rsu s x1.15 a T he M i n it a b p rin to u t fittin g the m odel to the d a ta is sh o w n on the n ex t page. H0 is rejected . 13. p -v a lu e = -^ (. H0 is ag ain re jec ted . If /?. x2 The regression equation is y = .002 Seq SS 20.^ = ^ ( A .206 xl 0.28 P 0.

H 0 is re je c te d .2 3 T h e b asic resp o n se e q u atio n fo r a sp ecifíc ty p e o f b o n d in g c o m p o u n d w o u ld be E ( y ) = A . H en ee 9 4 .9x2 w h ile w h en x.9 x 2 _ = 1 3 .1 .4 % o f the total v ariatio n is acco u n te d fo r by u sin g x a n d x 2 in th e m odel.6 + 3.1 .9 4 4 .2 1 6 6 3 x 2 .5 8 5 + 3 . b W h en x. c T h e h y p o th esis o f in te re st is H 0 : /?. x2 13 . = 1. 5 4 ( l ) . and we co n c lu d e th at the m o d el co n trib u tes sig n ifican t in fo rm a tio n fo r the p re d ic tio n o f y.003 . o n e d u m m y v a riab le is n e ed e d to in co rp ó rate this v ariab le in to th e m o d el. D e fin e th e d u m m y v a riab le x2 as follo w s: x 2 = 1 if b o n d in g c o m p o u n d 2 = 0 o th erw ise T h e ex p a n d e d m odel is n o w w ritten as £ (> 0 = A ) + $ x i + M 13.9 x2 c T h e g ra p h b elo w sh o w s the tw o p aráb o las. = 0 .0 . the p red ic tio n e q u atio n is y = 8 . 2 x 2 + 3 .4 4 w ith p -v a lu e = .1 4 . y = 12. H en ee. + P \ X\ + P 2X\ S in ce th e q u a lita tiv e v a riab le “b o n d in g c o m p o u n d ” is a t tw o lev els. y = 12.6 + .8 2 0 8 x . b R 2 is lab eled “R -sq ” o r R 2 = .2 x2 + 3 .25 2 + P i * 2 + P*x \x i + M 2*2 a F ro m the p rin to u t. d T h e h y p o th e sis o f in te re st is H0 :A = 0 H a:/? 2 * 0 137 . = p 2 = 0 H a: at least o n e d iffers fro m zero and th e te st statistic is F = 3 3 .m ay a p p e a r as the co efficie n t o f a n o th e r q u a n titativ e v a ria b le w ith e x p o n e n t 2 or greater.

1992 S = 71.t2 + . + .394 5 .21 xlsq 0. It ap p e a rs to be a c u rv ilin e a r rela tio n sh ip .29 a T he m odel is >’ = fio +M *i+ PiX2 + M 2 + + A * í*2 + £ and the M in itab p rin to u t is sh o w n below .85 56 .51 + 6.51 -t.39 xl .394.275 -0.5 0 .an d the test statistic is t = .31 a .78 0. 138 . T he m odel fits q u ite w ell.50.064x.0 0 0 and R~ = . + 17.. x 2 = 0 and the p red ic tio n e q u atio n b eco m e s y = 4. Regression A nalysis: y ve rsu s x1.5025 0. e T h e p attern o f the d ia g n o stic p lo ts d o e s not in d ícate any o b v io u s v io latio n o f the reg ressio n assu m p tio n s.V.3707a:2 e T h e h y p o th esis o f in te re st is H „ :/? 4 = 0 H a :/? 4 * 0 an d the test statistic is t = .016 R-Sq(adj) = ' MS 132833 5139 F 25.85 w ith P = . a n d we co n clu d e that the q u ad ra tic m o d e l p ro v id e s a b e tte r fit to the d ata than a sim p le lin e a r m odel.3 4 + 23.008 . x1x2.6891 R-Sq = 76. c If the d o lp h in is fem ale.021 -2.101 xlsqx2 -0.11 0 .439 2.x. 13. ..8 5 x . x ls q .1318 0.777 x2 -50.132 xlsq ■ Predictor Coef SE Coef Constant 4 .24 xl 6.b T h e dató-is p lo tte d on the n ex t page.9 3 w ith p -v a lu e = . H0 is reje c te d .x. H en ee.5 + 6 . x1sqx2 The regression equation is y = 4. H0 is no t reje cte d a n d w e co n c lu d e that the q u ad ratic term is not im p o rta n t in p re d ic tin g m e rcu ry c o n ce n tra tio n fo r fem ale dolp h in s. w hich co u ld be d e sc rib e d u sin g the q u a d ra tic m odel y = /?0 + ¡3xx + f i 2x 2 + £ .458.6.11 0.1687 xlx2 17..1 3 1 8jc2 d If the d o lp h in is m ale.371 0.4 3 9 .4 6 .2 .51 42 . 1 3.4 .0 0 0 b T h e fitted p red ic tio n m o d el u se s the co e ffic ie n ts giv en in the c o lu m n m ark ed “C o e f ’ in the printout: y = 4.131 8. x 2 = 1 and the p red ic tio n e q u a tio n b eco m e s y = .90 0.40 0.768 .9 x2 + 0. x2.78 w ith p -v a lu e = .52 0.85 P 0 .916 1.064 7 .394jc. .8% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS Regression 5 664164 Residual Error 39 200434 Total 44 864598 T P 0. 5 0 2 5 x f x 2 T h e F te st fo r the m o d e l’s u tility is F = 25.

X ----------------- — c T h e M i n it a b p rin to u t is sh o w n below .11 w ith p -v a lu e = .98 0.00 0. x_sq The regression equation is y = 4114749 . R e s id u a ls V e r s u s t he Fitted V a lú e s (ra p a rs e • y) 0M ------------------------------------------- | aoo •0.523521 R-Sq = 99.0 0 0 .98 d T P 11.27 F 542.7 % o f the total v ariatio n is a c c o u n te d fo r b y u sin g x a n d x 2 in the m odel.4113 x + 1.4 343.000 T h e h y p o th e sis o f in terest is H0 : f l = A = 0 and the te st statistic is F = 542.11 P 0.25 0 5 10 ntted Valué 139 15 20 .16 Residual Error 3 0.58 0. T h e re is no rea so n to d o u b t the v a lid ity o f ____ the re g re ssio n a ssu m p tio ns.82 Total 5 297. 9 9 . H enee.001 -11.03 x_sq Predictor Coef SE Coef Constant 4114749 343582 x -4113. R egressio n A nalysis: y v e rsu s x.99 0.2 x_sq 1.02804 0.001 12.7% Analysis of Variance Source DF SS Regression 2 297. H 0 is re je c te d a n d we co n c lu d e th a t th e m odel p ro v id e s valu ab le in fo rm a tio n fo r th e p re d ic tio n o f y. f T h e resid u al p lo ts a re show n b elo w .001 R-Sq(adj) = 99. e R 2 = .5% MS 148.08568 S = 0.9 9 7 .

9 % o f the total v ariatio n is a c c o u n te d fo r b y u sin g x a n d x 2 in th e m o d el. b T h e h y p o th esis o f in terest is H0 :/? .045 . H enee.999 . 0 = 6 .61 w ith p -v a lu e = .14 w ith p -v a lu e = . : A = 0 and the te st statistic is t = 15. e W h en th e q u a d ratic term is re m o v e d fro m th e m o d el. H0 is reje cte d a n d w e co n c lu d e that th e q u a d ra tic re g re ssio n c o e ffic ie n t is sig n ific a n t w hen x is in th e m odel. th e v alu é o f R 2 d e c re a se s by 9 9 .9 3 . 140 .6 5 w ith p -v a lu e = . H 0 is re je c te d a n d we co n clu d e th at the m o d el p ro v id es v alu ab le in fo rm a tio n fo r th e p re d ic tio n o f y.2 . 9 9 .= A = 0 a n d the test statistic is F = 1676.0 0 0 . H 0 is re je c te d and w e c o n c lu d e th a t th e lin e a r re g re ssio n co e ffic ie n t is sig n ific a n t w hen x 1 is in the m odel.1 3.9 .35 a R 2 = .0 0 0 . T h is is the ad d itio n al co n trib u tio n o f th e q u a d ra tic term w h en it is in clu d ed in the m odel. c T h e h y p o th esis o f in terest is H0 :f l= 0 a n d the test statistic is t = . f T h e c le a r p a tte m o f a c u rv e in the resid u al p lo t in d icates th a t the q u a d ratic term should be in clu d ed in th e m odel. d T h e h y p o th esis o f in terest is H (.9 % .

re je c t H0 if X 2 > 12. T h e te st statistic is 141 .4 is Va.14: Analysis of Categorical Data 14.3 3 3 . U se T a b le 5.3 . A p p e n d ix I: a d f = 6. Xas = 5-99. I f n o lañ e is p referred o v er an o th er. re je c t H 0 if X 2 > 2 1 .8 1 .2 .11 S im ila r to p rev io u s ex ercises.8 1 9 4 d 14. A tab le o f o b se rv e d an d e x p ected cell c o u n ts fo llo w s: L añe o¡ 1 294 2 276 3 238 4 192 E.1 .3 F o r a test o f sp ec ifie d ce ll p ro b ab ilities.3 .99 O ne th o u san d c a rs w ere each c la ssifie d acco rd in g to th e lañ e w h ich th e y o ccu p ie d (one th ro u g h fo u r).2 5 0 )2 i (2 7 6 -2 5 0 )2 _ (2 3 8 -2 5 0 )2 _ (1 9 2 -2 5 0 )2 250 250 250 25 0 _ 6 H 0 _ 24 4g 250 T h e re je c tio n reg ió n w ith k . T h e h y p o th esis to b e tested is H 0 : P\ = Pi = " ‘ = P n ~ v ersu s H a : at least one p¡ is d ifferen t from th e oth ers w ith E. x%a = 2 9.1 = 3 d f is X 2 > x l s = 7 . x l s = 12.4 .7 d f = 2. T h e nuil h y p o th e sis is then H n : P x = P 2 = Pi = P< = j a n d the test statistic is w ith £ . i = 1 .2 . 250 250 250 250 T hen v2 _ (2 9 4 . S in ce th e o b se rv e d v alué o f X 2 fa lls in the reje c tio n reg ió n .59. w e reject H 0.666 c d f = 13. T h ere is a d iffe re n c e in p refe ren c e fo r the fo u r lañes. re je c t H 0 if X 2 > 5. = nPi = 4 0 0 ( 1 /1 2 ) = 3 3 . re je c t H 0 if X 2 > 2 9 . = n p i = 1 0 0 0 (1 /4 ) = 2 5 0 fo r i = 1 . 14. X m = 2 1 .6 6 6 . th e p ro b a b ility th a t a car will be d riv en in lañe i. the d e g re e s o f fre e d o m are k .814.59 b d f = 9.

2 4 . F o r a 3 x 5 co n tin g en cy ta b le w ith r = 3 a n d c = 5 .1 = 2 an d the rejec tio n reg ió n 2 2 X > X a s = ^ -9 9 . the n u m b e r o f c o n d itio n a l a d m issio n s has in creased .+ ( « z ^ 300 l + ( 1 2 L .97 142 (8 .91) (14.97) 11 10 (10.¿ . and w e c o n c lu d e th a t th e re has b een a d e p artu re fro m p rev io u s ad m issio n rates.________ A tta c h m e n t Secure A nx io u s T o ta l C h ild C a re M o d érate 24 35 (24.3 3 . in c lu d in g c o lu m n and ro w to tals and th e estim a te d e x p e c ted cell c o u n ts.58 3 3 . follow s.2 6 7 4.3 3 ) X 2 = .05 .l ) = ( 2 ) ( 4 ) = 8 d e g re es o f freed o m . 14..03) 111 51 L ow H igh 5 (8 .— = 13.675 .+ .4 .19. H 0 : P.0 5 ) 297 29 459 T h e te st statistic is v 2 _ ( 2 4 . T h e test statistic is x2 = (3 2 9 -3 0 0 ).3 3 ) ( 3 5 . th ere are ( r .---------------.17 R e fe r to S ectio n 14.1 = 11 d f is X 2 > Xas . T h e co n tin g e n cy tab le. 14.05 a n d k . R efu sed 128 175 T o ta ls 500 500 = .4 o f the text. p 2 = .9 5 ) T o ta l 64 8 (4 . = -60.3 3 .09) (30.3 3 33.0 5 ) + -------------— = 7 .3 0 .35 a g a in st th e altern ativ e th at at least o n e o f th ese p ro b a b ilitie s is in co rrect.05. 9 7 )2 < 24. 14.17 S y 25 175 T h e n u m b er o f d e g re es o f freed o m is k . A tab le o f o b se rv e d and ex p ected cell co u n ts follow s: U n co n d itio n al T rial 329 43 300 25 E¡ T h e nuil h y p o th e sis to be tested is O.15 It is n ecessary to d ete rm in e w h eth er ad m issio n rates d iffe r fro m th e p rev io u sly re p o rted rates.l ) ( c . T h e nuil h y p o th e sis is rejected .09 30.33 T h e u p p e r tailed reje c tio n reg ió n is w ith a = . and the p e rc en tag e refu sed ad m issio n has d e cre a se d at the e x p e n se o f the fist tw o catego ries.21 a T h e h y p o th e sis o f in d e p en d e n c e b etw een a tta c h m e n t p a tte rn a n d ch ild c are tim e is tested u sin g the ch i-sq u a re statistic.+ ^-------------. 0 9 ) 2 | ( 3 5 . T h e nuil h y p o th e sis is n o t re je c te d and w e c a n n o t c o n c lu d e that the p ro p o rtio n o f c ases v aries from m o n th to m onth. N o tic e th a t the p e rc e n ta g e o f u n c o n d itio n al a d m issio n s has risen slig h tly . ( 3 8 .

in clu d in g c o lu m n a ro w to tals a n d th e estim a te d e x p e c te d cell c o u n ts. DF = 6. T h e re is in su ffic ien t e v id e n c e to in d ícate th at salai d ep en d en t on the n u m b e r o f w o rk d ay s sp en t a t hom e.174 66 4 33 39. 14.496 26 28.07 0.47 1. P-Value = 0. 060 29 22 .05 .404 92 3 35 35.3 6 . w ith e stim a te d e x p ected co u n ts ap p earin g in p a ren th e se s.4 4 7 .52 0 . T h is w ould co n firm th e n o n -reje c tio n o f th e nul h y p o th e sis fro m p art a. X 2= 6 .an d the reje ctio n reg ió n is X 2 > X m = $-99 w 'th 2 d f .65 1. g en e ra te d by M i n i t a b follow s.08 1. b T h e v alu é X 2 = 7 .59 and nuil h y p o th esis is no t re je cte d . is sh o w n on th e n e x t page.5 9 )2 _ 2 1 . is re je c ted . is less th a n X a o = 10.116 9 10 .051 2 54 49. T h e co n tin g e n c y ta b le . Chi-Square Test: L e ss than one.601 12 11.59 0.27 0.447.59 a n d the rejectio n reg ió n w ith a = .0 8 ^ 11.375 T h e test statistic is v 2 _ (3 8 . not all.224 All at home 14 10.27 | ( 1 2 .1 1 . b T h e o b serv e d v alu é o f th e test statistic.25 a T he h y p o th e sis o f in d e p e n d e n c e b e tw een sa la ry a n d n u m b e r o f w o rk d ay s at he is tested using the c h i-sq u a re statistic. re su lts are sig n ifican t.29 B e cau se a set n u m b e r o f A m e ric a n s in e a ch su b -p o p u la tio n w ere e a c h fíx ed at 20' w e have a c o n tin g e n c y tab le w ith fix ed ro w s.64¿ th at the p -v a lu e is m ore th a n .34 0 .0 8 )2 ( 36. At least one.014 74 Total 160 93 47 300 1 Total 68 Chi-Sq = 6.94 1.083 At least one.05 and d f = 3 (2 ) = 6 is X 2 > Xas = 12.41 0. not all 16 21. T h e re is e v id e n c e o f a d e p e n d en c e b etw ee n a tta c h m e n t p attern an d c h ild c a re tim e.46 0.10. All at home Expected counts are printed below observed counts Chi-Square contributions are printed below expected counts Less than one 38 36.2 1 .20 0 .2 6 7 is b e tw e e n x l ¡ and Xms so l^ at < p -v a lu e < .001 22 20 . 143 . 14.2 7 ) 2 | (1 6 .223 12 14 . T h e tab le.

6 2 ) 2 | 62 . T h ere is su fficie n t e v id e n c e to in d icate th a t fam ily size is d ep e n d en t on type o f fam ily resid e n c e .9 .4 9 9 8 using C om puter accu racy . It ap p e a rs th at as the fam ily size in creases.W h ite -A m e rica n A frican -A m erican H isp an ic-A m erican A sian -A m erican T otal Y es 40 (62) 56 (62) No 160 (1 3 8 ) 144 (1 3 8 ) T otal 200 68 (62) 84 (62) 132 (1 3 8 ) 116 (1 3 8 ) 552 200 248 200 200 800 T h e test statistic is v2 _ ( 4 0 . in clu d in g c o lu m n and ro w to tals and the estim a te d e x p e c te d cell c o u n ts. X- A p artm en t T yp e D úplex 8 (9.35 I f the h o u se k e e p e r actu a lly has no p referen ce. the nuil h y p o th e sis to be tested is 144 .8449 .3 3 ) 2 (11) 14 (1 1 . H 0 is re je cte d and w e co n c lu d e that th e in cid en ce o f p aren tal su p p o rt is d e p en d en t on the su b -p o p u la tio n o f A m erican s.l ) ( c . T h e nuil h y p o th e sis is rejected . 6 7 )2 ------------’.3 3 ) 16 (8) 40 (8) 40 (8) 40 S ingle R esid en ce 1 (9 . 1 4.0 1 .6 2 )2 t (5 6 . F am ily M em b ers 1 2 3 4 o r m ore T otal T h e test statistic is . T he c o n tin g e n c y ta b le.+ 9 .l ) = 6 d f a n d a = .6 7) 16 20 (9.67) 8 (11) 10 (1 1 .6 7 )2 ( 2 0 . (1 1 6 -1 3 8 )2 62 21 138 and the reje c tio n reg ió n w ith 3 d f '\s X 2 > 1 1 . the re je c tio n reg ió n is X 2 > 16.3 3 ) 6 (11) 10 (1 1 .+ ±----------------. 1 4.6 7 9.33 T h e n u m b er o f o b serv a tio n s p e r co lu m n w ere se lected p rio r to the ex p e rim e n t. H enee. T he test p ro c e d u re is identical to th at u sed for an r x c c o n tin g e n c y tab le. W ith ( r . he o r she h as an e q u a l ch a n c e o f p ick in g any o f the five flo o r p o lish es.3 4 4 9 . follow s.6 7 ) T o ta l 9 33 (8 —9 . it is m ore likely th at p eo p le w ill liv e in sin g le re sid e n c e s.67 29 34 24 120 (1 6 -8 )2 +± — = 3 6 .

th is d o e s n o t im p ly that p¡ is n ecessarily g re a ter th an 1/6. Bush.30 0.64 68.40 1.4 0 T h e p -v a lu e w ith d f = k . > 1 /6 F ro m a sam p le o f n = 100 h o u se w iv e s.546 68 74 . and E.658 134 119.36 3 . ca n be p erfo rm ed o n the sin g le b in o m ial p a ra m e ter p¡. w as sig n ific a n tly d iffe re n t fro m 1/6. w e c o u ld n o t c o n c lu d e th at p o lish A is su perior.588 155 3 93 92. x = 27 are fo u n d to p re fe r p o lish A. Democrat Expected counts are printed below observed counts Chi-Square contributions are printed below expected counts G. B u sh in the 2 0 0 4 ele c tio n fo r a p a rtic u la r c h u rc h atten d an ce g roup.006 178 4 114 128. 14. H en ee.W.39 A s-te st a T o test fo r h o m o g e n e ity o f the five b in o m ial p o p u la tio n s.205 3 . - P o lish T hen X = o¡ A 27 E¡ 20 B 17 20 C 15 20 D 22 20 E 19 20 (2 7 -2 0 )' (1 7 -2 0 )" (1 9 -2 0 )2 20 20 20 = 4 .W. Bush Democrat Total 89 53 142 i 73 .W .70 0. If th e o b jectiv e o f the e x p e rim e n t is to sh o w th at p o lish A is su p e rio r. T h e c o n tin g e n cy ta b le g e n erated by M i n i t a b is sh o w n belo w Chi-Square Test: G. P\ = Pi = Py = P\ = Ps = ^ T h e v alú es o f O.005 85 85. a b etter p ro ced u re w ould be to test an h y p o th e sis as fo llo w s: H 0 '■P\ = 1 /6 H a : p.1 0 an d Ho is n o t rejected .786 248 145 . H o w e v er. the c o n c lu sió n w o u ld be th at at least o n e o f the v alué o f the p . are the a c tu a l co u n ts o b se rv e d in the e x p e rim e n t. W e can n o t co n clu d e th at there is a d iffe re n c e in the p re feren c e fo r th e fiv e flo o r p o lish es. w e use c h i-sq u are statistic and the 5 x 2 c o n tin g e n c y ta b le show n b e lo w T h e nuil h y p o th e sis is th at v o ter ch o ice and c h u rc h a tte n d a n c e are in d ep en d en t. = 1 0 0 (1 /5 ) = 2 0 .38 0.H. = / i p . w ith p be the p ro p o rtio n o f v o ters w ho in ten d to v o te fo r G .60 1.1 = 4 is g re ate r th an .453 2 87 80.62 0. E ven if this h y p o th e sis h a d been re je c te d .

T h e tab le o f o b se rv e d and e x p e c ted cell c o u n ts fo llo w s: AB Ab aB aa o¡ E. 14. DF = 4.92 2. = 3 /1 6 = .752.5 22 30. T h ere is su ffic ie n t e v id en c e to in d ic a te th a t th e p ro p o rtio n o f ad u lts w h o in ten d to v o te fo r G . and E¡ are k n o w n fo r e a c h o f th e fív e c e lls. T h en . C o n v e rtin g th ese ra tio s to p ro b ab ilities. £ .003 a n d the nuil h y p o th e sis is re je c te d at the 5% level o f sig n ifícan ce. = n p ( m ust be calc u lated . w ith th e o re tic al ratio 9 :3 :3 :1 .48 In o rd e r to p erfo rm a c h i-sq u a re “g o o d n ess o f fit” test on th e g iv e n d a ta . p 4( l . T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H0 : the ex p e rim en t is b in o m ial v ersu s H a : the e x p e rim e n t is n o t b in o m ia l L e t x be the n u m b e r o f su c c e sse s and p be the p ro b a b ility o f su ccess on a sin g le trial. it is n ecessary that th e v a lú es O. B u sh in the 2 0 0 4 elec tio n is d e p en d e n t on c h u rc h atten d an ce. W e d o n o t have en o u g h in fo rm atio n to c o n tra d ic t the th eo retical m odel fo r the c la ssific atio n o f flo w e r c o lo r and sh ap e.336 58 Total 405 376 781 Chi-Sq = 15. ^ = p ( x = 0 ) = Coy (1 . 14. T h e te st statistic is 95 90 30 30 28 30 7 10 v2 _ (9 5 -9 0 )2 ^ 3 0 -3 0 )* t (2 8 -3 0 )2 . Pl = 9 / 1 6 = . w e d o not reject H 0. T h e O.1 = 3 a n d the reje c tio n re g ió n w ith a = .P ) 4 p 2 = / > ( * = 2 ) = c 24p 2 ( l . (the n u m b e r o f m easu re m en ts fallin g in th e i-th cell) are g iv en .p )3 p 3 = p ( x = 3 ) = C * p 3( l .08 2. R em e m b e r th at p. a ssu m in g the nuil h y p o th e sis to be true.p ) 2 p 4 = p ( x = 4 ) = C . (7 -1 0 )2 _ ^ ^ ] 90 30 30 10 T h e n u m b er o f d e g re e s o f freed o m is k . S in ce the o b se rv ed v alué o f X 2 d o e s n o t fall in th e reje ctio n re g ió n .5625 p 2 = 3 /1 6 = .01 is X 2 > x \ \ = 1 1-3449 . H o w e v e r. P-Value = 0. 1875 p .1875 p 4 = 1 /1 6 = .169 36 27.p ) ‘ .43 T h e flo w er fall in to o n e o f fo u r cla ssific a tio n s.0625 W e w ill te st th e nuil h y p o th e sis th at the p ro b a b ilitie s are as ab o v e a g a in st the a ltern ativ e th at th ey differ.p ) ° 146 p l = p ( x = l ) = c t4p ' ( l . is the p ro b ab ility th at a m e a su re m e n t falls in th e j'-th cell.003 T h e o b serv ed v alu é o f the te st statistic is X 2 = 15.W .752 w ith p -v a lu e = .

H en ee, o n c e an e stím ate fo r p is o b tain ed , the e x p e c ted ce ll freq u en c ie s can be
calc u lated u sin g the ab o v e p ro b a b ilitie s. N o te th a t e a c h o f th e 100 e x p erim en ts
co n sists o f fo u r triáis a n d h en ee the c o m p lete e x p e rim e n t in v o lv es a total o f 4 0 0 triáis.
T h e best e stim a to r o f p is p = x / n (as in C h a p te r 9 ). T hen,
„ _ x _ n u m b e r o f su cc esses _ 0(1 l) + l ( l 7 ) + 2 ( 4 2 ) + 3(12)-t-'4‘(9 )
n

n u m b e r o f triáis

400

1
2

T h e ex p erim en t (c o n sistin g o f fo u r triáis) w as re p e a te d 100 tim es. T h e re are a to tal o f
4 0 0 triáis in w h ich th e re su lt “n o su c c e sse s in fo u r triá is” w as o b se rv e d 11 tim es, the
resu lt “one su ccess in fo u r triá is” w as o b serv e d 17 tim es, a n d so on. T h en
Po = c * ( 1 / 2 ) 0 ( l / 2 ) 4 = 1/16

p , = c ; (1 /2 )' (1 /2 )3 = 4 /1 6

p 2 = < T Í ( l / 2 ) '( l / 2 ) ’ = 6 /1 6

p , = C , ( l / 2 ) ? (1 /2 )' = 4 /1 6

P , = C 44 ( l / 2 ) 4 (1 /2 )° = 1 /1 6
T h e o b serv e d and e x p e c ted ce ll fre q u en c ie s are sh o w n in th e fo llo w in g table.
X
0
2
1
3
4
11
17
42
21
9
o,
6.25
2 5 .0 0
3 7 .5 0 2 5 .0 0
6.25
E,
and th e statistic is
X =

(1 1 - 6 .2 5 )2

(1 7 - 2 5 .0 0 ) 2

( 9 - 6 .2 5 )

= 8.56
6.25
2 5 .0 0
6.25
In o rd e r to b o u n d the p -v a lu e o r set up a reje c tio n reg ió n , it is n e cessary to d e term in e
the ap p ro p ria te d e g re e s o f freed o m asso c iate d w ith th e te st statistic. T w o d eg re e s o f
freed o m are lo st because:
1

T h e cell p ro b a b ilitie s are restricte d by th e fact th a t Z p , = 1.

2

T h e b in o m ia l p a ra m e te r p is u n k n o w n and m u st b e e stim a te d b efo re c alc u latin g
the ex p ected cell co u n ts. T h e n u m b er o f d e g re e s o f fre e d o m is e q u al to
k - \ - \ = k - 2 = 3 . W ith d f = 3 , the p -v a lu e fo r X 2 = 8 .5 6 is b e tw een .025 and
.05 and the nuil h y p o th e sis can be re jec te d at th e 5 % level o f sig n ifican ce. W e
co n clu d e th at the e x p erim en t in q u e stio n d o es n o t fu lfill th e req u irem en ts fo r a
b in o m ial ex p erim en t.

14.51

T h e nuil h y p o th e sis to be tested is

u
H0 : p,

= p 2 = p 3 = -1

and the test statistic is
x 2= I
w ith E j = np¡ = 2 0 0 (1 /3 ) = 6 6 .6 7 fo r / = 1 ,2 ,3 . A ta b le o f o b se rv e d and e x p ected cell
c o u n ts follow s:

147

E n tran c e

1


83
6 6 .6 7

2
61
6 6 .6 7

3
56
6 6 .6 7

T hen
v 2 _ ( 8 4 - 6 6 . 6 7 ) 2 | ( 6 1 - 6 6 . 6 7 )2 | ( 5 6 - 6 6 .Ó 7 ) 2 _ 6 ^
6 6 .6 7

6 6 .6 7

6 6 .6 7

W ith d f = k - 1 = 2 , th e p - v a lu e is b e tw een .025 and .05 án d w e can re je c t H 0 at the
5% level o f sig n ific a n c e . T h ere is a d iffe re n c e in p re feren ce fo r the th ree d o o rs. A
9 5% c o n fid e n c e in terv al fo r p \ is giv en as

n

± Z o 2 5 \r^ n

025V

=> —

± l - 9 6 j 4 1 5 ^'5 8 5 ^ => .4 1 5 ± .0 6 8

200

V 200

o r .347 < p, < .4 8 3 .
14.55

S in ce the c a rd s fo r each o f the th ree h o lid ay s w ill be e ith er “h u m o ro u s” o r “ not
h u m o ro u s” , the tab le actu a lly co n sists o f tw o ro w s and th ree c o lu m n s, an d is sh o w n
w ith e stim a te d e x p ected and o b serv ed cell c o u n ts in the M i n i t a b p rin to u t b elo w .

Chi-Square Test: Fathers, Mothers, Valentines
Expected counts are printed below observed counts
Chi-Square contributions are printed below expected counts
Fathers
Mothers
Valentines
Total
100
125
120
345
i
115.00
115.00
115.00
1. 957
0.870
0 .217
2
400
380
375
1155
385.00
385.00
385.00
0 .584
0 .260
0 .065
Total
500
500
500
1500
Chi-Sq = 3.953, DF = 2, P-Value = 0. 139

T h e test statistic fo r the e q u ality o f the th ree p o p u latio n p ro p o rtio n s is
X 2 = 3.953 w ith p -v alu e = . 139 and H 0 is n o t rejected . T h ere is in su ffic ie n t e v id e n c e
to in d ícate a d iffe re n c e in the p ro p o rtio n o f h u m o ro u s c a rd s fo r the th ree h o lid ay s.
1 4 .5 9

a T h e 2 x 3 co n tin g e n cy tab le is a n a ly z ed as in p re v io u s e x e rc ises. T h e M i n it a b
p rin to u t b e lo w sh o w s the o b serv e d a n d estim a ted e x p ected ce ll c o u n ts, the test
statistic and its a sso c iate d p -v a lu e .

Chi-Square Test: 3 or fewer, 4 or 5, 6 or more
Expected counts are printed below observed counts
Chi-Square contributions are printed below expected counts
3 or
fewer
4 or 5 6 or more Total
1
49
43
34
126
37.89
45.47
42 .63
T . 254
0.003
2 .895
2
31
47
62
140
42.11
47.37
50.53
2 .929
0.003
2 .605
Total
80
90
96
266
Chi-Sq = 11.690, DF = 2, P-Value = 0.003

148

T h e resu lts are hig h ly sig n ifican t ( p -v a lu e = .003 ) a n d w e c o n c lu d e th at th ere is a
d iffe re n c e in the su sc e p tib ility to c o ld s d e p e n d in g on the n u m b e r o f re la tio n sh ip s you
have.
b T h e p ro p o rtio n o f p eo p le w ith c o ld s is c a lc u la te d c o n d itio n a lly fo r each o f the
T h ree o r few e r

F o u r o r fiv e

S ix o r m o re

C oid

i » = .61
80

« = .4 8
90

— = .35
96

N o coid

— = .39
80

— = .52
90

— = .65
96

T otal
1.00
100
1.00
A s the re se a rc h e r su sp ects, th e su sce p tib ility to a c o id seem s to d e c rea se as the
n u m b e r o f re la tio n sh ip s in creases!
14.65

U se the first G o o d n ess-o f-F it a p p let. E n te r the o b se rv e d v alú es in to the th ree c e lls in
the first row . and the e x p e c te d cell co u n ts w ill au to m a tic a lly a p p e a r in the seco n d
row . T h e v alué o f X : = 18.5 w ith p -v a lu e = .0001 p ro v id e su fficien t e v id e n c e to
re je c t H0 and co n c lu d e th at c u sto m e rs have a p referen ce fo r o n e o f the th ree b ran d s
(in this case, B ran d II).
O reen

R ed

« 1 1 5

..............

Uoo o

T o« *l

B iu e

120

65

300

100.0

100 0

300

i

O b s e iv é d Fr« Q u «n e l*s

ChiSq(2) = 18.5, p-value =
14.69

1

OE-4

T h e d a ta is a n aly z ed as a 2 x 3 c o n tin g en cy tab le w ith e stim a te d e x p e c ted cell co u n ts
sh o w n in p aren th ese s. U se th e C h i-S q u a re T est o f In d e p e n d e n c e ap p let. Y o u r

P arty
R ep u b lican
D em o crat
T otal

1
114
(1 2 0 .8 6 )
87
(8 0 .1 4 )
201

O p in ió n
2
53
(4 8 .1 0 )
27
(3 1 .8 9 )
80

149

3
17
(1 5 .0 3 )
8
(9 .9 7 )
25

T o ta l
184
122
306

T h e test statistic is y 2 _ ( 1 1 4 .2 3 7 8 ) and H 0 is not rejecte d .10 (the ap p let rep o rts p -v a lu e = .1 0 ( (B . the p -v a lu e is g re a te r th an .9 7 )2 = 2 9.86 4 8 .4 8 . .9 .1 2 0 .97 W ith d f = 2 .8 6 ) 2 t ( 5 3 . T h e re is no e v id en c e th at p arty a ffiliatio n h as any e ffe c t on opinión. 1 0 ) 2 [ 120.

I f H a is tru e and p o p u la tio n 1 lies to th e rig h t o f p o p u la tio n 2 .7 .7 5 ( 1 5 ) 0 . T h e te st sta tistic w ill be T ¡ .01 (3) 0 . C alcú late 7* = n.. T h e n uil h y p o th e sis w ill be re je c te d if 7j’ is u n u su ally sm all. w ill b e larg e and 7* w ill be sm all.1 a If d istrib u tio n 1 is sh ifted to th e rig h t o f d istrib u tio n 2 .5 ) 1. w ith c o rre sp o n d in g ran k s.1 6 (1 7 ) 1.9 4 (2 ) 2 .0 7 (1 0 ) 2 . T h e re is in su ffic ien t e v id e n c e to in d ic a te a d iffe re n c e in th e tw o p o p u latio n d istrib u tio n s.2 3 (1 8 ) 2 . c F ro m T a b le 7c w ith n. the te st sta tistic w ill be 7* and th e la rg e sa m p le a p p ro x im a tio n can be used.8 9 ( 1 ) 2 . = 6 .1 4 ( 1 1 ) 1.jy V 378 T h e reje ctio n reg ió n w ith a = . < 2 1 . = 1 2 6 C a lc ú la te 151 .A r _ 1 3 1 -1 6 2 _ / Gr v.15: Nonparametric Statistics 15.5 ) 7.0 1 . = 1 2 (2 7 ) —193 = 131 _ n . are sh o w n in the fo llo w in g table.1 . 15.6 4 5 a n d Hq is n o t reje c te d .1 2 (5 . n2 = 8 a n d a = .9 S im ila r to p rev io u s ex ercises.05 is z < . 15.5 b F ro m T a b le 7 a w ith n. H 0 w ill be re je c te d if 7”. ___________ ______________ H e a r in g (2) D e a f (1) 2 .9 3 ( 1 6 ) 2 .01 (9) 1 .1 2 (5 .43 (7) 1.06 (4) 3 . th e ra n k su m fo r sa m p le 1 (T¡) w ill te n d to be large. T h e d ata. H 0 w ill be re je c te d i f 7'* < 3 1 . th en 7 . (rtj + n2 + 1) . ( t t i + n 2 + l ) _ 1 2 (2 6 + 1) Mt 2 ^ 2 = nin 2( n ] + n 2 + 1) = 1 2 (1 4 ) (2 7 ) = 3 ?g r 12 12 T h e te st statistic is Z— 7 . H en ee.79 (8) 1 .4 9 ( 1 4 ) 2 .1 8 (1 2 ) 3 .2 0 ( 1 3 ) 2. = 6 .05 . n 2 = 8 and a = . the ra n k sum fo r sa m p le 1 if the o b se rv atio n s had b een ra n k ed fro m larg e to sm all.

w e c a n te st th e e q u iv a le n c e o f th e tw o a sse sso rs by testin g th e h y p o th esis H n : p = l/2 v ersu s Ha :pí¿l/2 u sin g the test statistic *.115 a I f assesso rs A and B are eq u al in th e ir p ro p e rty a ss essm e n ts.T{ = 126 T¡ = « . th e n p.13 a If a p a ire d d ifferen c e e x p erim en t h as been u sed a n d th e sign test is o n e -ta ile d ( H a : p > . ( « . the p ro b a b ility th a t A ’s assessm e n t e x c e e d s B ’s asse ssm e n t fo r a g iv en p ro p e rty . falls in th e re je c tio n reg ió n and H 0 is rejected . it w as n o ted th a t th e d is trib u tio n o f the ra n d o m v ariab le * is sy m m etrical a b o u t the m ean n p w h en p = 1/2 . the lo w e r tailed p ro b a b ilitie s ta b u la ted in T a b le 1.15 . T h e o b serv ed v alu é.05 is fo u n d in T a b le 7 b to be 7j’ < 6 2 .007 *>18 . H enee. th e n u m b er o f tim es th at a sse sso r A e x c e e d s a sse sso r B fo r a p a rtic u la r p ro p e rty assessm en t. H en ee.002 *>19 . + n 2 + l ) . A n e x a c t p ra c tic a l sta te m e n t o f the a ltern ativ e h y p o th e sis w o u ld d e p en d on the e x p e rim en tal situ atio n . T h e v alú es o f a a v a ila b le fo r th is u p p e r tailed test an d th e c o rre sp o n d in g reje ctio n re g io n s are sh o w n below .r .022 *>17 . u se T ab le 1 w ith n = 8 and p = .05. w ith n = 25. th e tw o p o p u la tio n s a re id en tical an d co n se q u e n tly .7 ’1‘ ) = 45 W ith n. W e co n clu d e th at th é d e a f c h ild re n d o d iffe r fro m the h e a rin g c h ild re n in e y e-m o v em en t rate. = 9 (1 9 ) —126 = 4 5 T h e test statistic is T = m in (7 J. A ssu m in g th e n uil h y p o th e sis to be tru e. = n 2 = 9 . then eith e r p > 1/2 o r p < 1/2 .5 .17 R ejec tio n R eg ió n a *>20 . p = P { A ex ceed s B fo r a g iv en p a ir o f o b se rv a tio n s) is 1/2. T = 4 5 . 15.054 *>16 . In p a rtic u la r. 15. sh o u ld eq u al 1/2. P ( x = 0 ) = P ( x = 2 5 ) . T o find a tw o -ta ile d reje c tio n reg ió n w ith a c ió s e to . b It is n ecessary th at a (the p ro b a b ility o f re je c tin g th e nuil h y p o th e sis w h en it is tru e) take v a lú e s less than a = . then th e e x p e rim e n te r w o u ld lik e to sh o w th at o n e p o p u la tio n o f m e asu rem en ts lies ab o v e the o th e r p o p u la tio n . * = 8) the 152 . S im ila rly . th e tw o -ta ile d rejec tio n reg ió n w ith ar = . T h e b in o m ial p ro b a b ility w as d iscu sse d in C h a p te r 5. P { x = 1) = P ( x = 2 4 ) a n d so on. F o r th e reje c tio n reg ió n {* = 0.5 ) . I f o n e o f the a sse sso rs ten d s to be m o re co n se rv a tiv e th an th e o th er. F o r ex am p le. A p p e n d ix I w ill b e id en tical to th eir u p p er tailed eq u iv ale n t p ro b a b ilitie s.

the ra n k sum o f the p o sitiv e (o r n eg ativ e) d ifferen ces.3 -. T h ere is no e v id e n c e o f a d iffe re n c e b e tw een the tw o d istrib u tio n s. c F ro m T a b le 8 w ith n = 3 0 .7 . w e use th e sm a lle r o f T + and T~ as th e test statistic.1 .008 . H 0 is n o t re je c te d (as w ith th e critical v alu é a p p ro ach ).5 and the ra n k su m fo r n eg ativ e d iffe re n c e s is T~ = 1 . the reje ctio n reg ió n is T < 2 and Hq is rejected .5 5.45 allo w s the ex p e rim e n te r to re je c t Ho.004 + .x 2¡). the t test is th e m o re p o w e rfu l test and can re je c t w hen the sign te st c an n o t. w h ile fo r th e rejec tio n reg ió n { x = 0 .5 .10. th e re je c tio n re g ió n is T < 13 7 . w e c a n calc ú late n ( n + 1) . 3 0 (3 1 ) T~ = — --T * = — .21 a Ho'. x u .0 3 5 + .25 a T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0: p o p u la tio n d istrib u tio n s 1 and 2 are identical H a: th e d istrib u tio n s d iffe r in lo catio n an d the te st statistic is T. A p p en d ix I g iv es critical v alú es fo r rejec tio n in th e lo w e r ta il o f the d istrib u tio n .004 = . C o n sid e r the sm a lle r ran k su m an d d e term in e the a p p ro p ria te lo w e r p o rtio n o f the tw o -ta ile d reje c tio n reg ió n . b T h e t sta tistic u se d in E x e rc ise 10.8 } the v alu é o f a is .1 di 4 5. T h e re is a d iffe re n c e in th e tw o p o p u latio n lo catio n s. w h ile th e sig n te st fails to re je c t H 0. T he ran k s are o b tain ed by o rd e rin g the d ifferen ces acco rd in g to th eir a b so lu te valué.05 in T a b le 8.5 .5 3 R a n k | d¡ \ 1. are sh o w n in the fo llo w in g table.. th e nuil h y p o th esis is not rejected . a = ._______ . H en ee. 15. I f all n o rm a lity a ssu m p tio n s a re m et. D efin e d¡ to be the d iffe re n c e b e tw een a p a ir in p o p u la tio n s 1 a n d 2 (i.5 T h e ra n k sum fo r p o sitiv e d iffe re n c e s is T + = 26.5 w ith n = 7 .. p o p u la tio n d istrib u tio n s 1 a n d 2 are identical H a: the d istrib u tio n s d iffe r in lo catio n b S in ce T a b le 8. In d ex in g n = l and a = . 153 .035 = . th e re su lts are n o t sig n ifica n t.05. T h e d iffe re n c e s. T h is is b ecau se th e sig n test u sed less in fo rm atio n and m ak es fe w e r a ssu m p tio n s th a n d o e s th e t test.1 . u sin g th e reje c tio n reg ió n {jc < 1 or * > 7 } .290 S in ce th e p -v a lu e is g rea te r th a n .5 7 1.e.0 7 0 w h ich is c lo se r to . 8 5 5 ) = . alo n g w ith th e ir ran k s (acc o rd in g to a b so lu te m ag n itu d e).7 .2 4 9 = 216 . d S in ce T + = 2 4 9 .2 . T h e p -v a lu e fo r this tw o -ta ile d te st is p -v a lu e = 2 P ( x > 6 ) = 2(1 . 2 2 T h e te st statistic is th e sm a lle r o f T + a n d T~ or T = 2 1 6 and H 0 is n o t re jec ted .05 an d a tw o -ta ile d test.valu é o f a is . sin ce x = n u m b e r o f p ro p e rtie s fo r w h ich A ex ce e d s B = 6 . 15.

b T h e resu lts d o n o t ag ree w ith th o se o b tain ed in E x e rc ise 15. T h e n T + = 5 1 . 15. T h ere is in su fficien t e v id en ce to in d íca te a d iffe re n c e b etw een th e tw o m ethods. U sin g the W ilc o x o n sig n e d -r a n k test. jc > 8 . (2 ) the sign te st o r (3 ) th e W ilc o x o n sig n e d ra n k test.066 . In o rd e r to use the p a ire d d iffe re n c e t test. In d ex in g « = 11 and a = . since th e n u m b e r o f w ords rec a lle d h as a b in o m ial d istrib u tio n w ith n = 25 and u n k n o w n recall p ro b a h ility .29 T h e p aire d d ata are given in th e ex ercise. T h e d iffe re n ce s. T h e se are sh o w n in th e fo llo w in g table.. T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : p = 1/2 v ersu s H a : p * 1/2 u sin g the sign te st w ith x as th e test statistic.066 * < 3 . th is d istrib u tio n m ay n o t b e a p p ro x im a te ly norm al.012 x < 2 .31 a S ince th e e x p e rim e n t h as b een d e sig n e d as a p a ire d e x p e rim e n t. b T o use the W ilco x o n sig n ed ran k test.5 w ith n = 1 1 .(1) th e p a ire d d iffe re n c e t test. the h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : p = 1/2 v ersu s H a : p > 1/2 F o r the o b se rv e d v alué x = 0 w e c a lc ú la te the tw o -tailed p -v alu e: - p -v a lu e = 2 P ( x < 0 ) = 2 (.5 a n d T~ = 1 4 . a lo n g w ith th e ir ran k s a el R ank i 2 3. W e are able to re je c t H0 w ith the m o re p o w erfu l W ilc o x o n test.000 T h e resu lts are h ig h ly sig n ifican t. so th at and 154 . c a lc ú late the tw o -ta ile d p -v a lu e : p -v a lu e = 2 P ( x > 8) = 2(1 . w e use th e ran k s o f th e a b so lu te d iffe re n c e s show n in th e ta b le abo v e.5 7. b U sin g the sig n test.05 . S in ce x = 8 . th e d iffe re n c e s w ill all be p o sitiv e ( x = 0 for the sign test).jc > 10 a . p -v a lu e a p p ro a ch : F o r the o b serv e d v alu é x = 8 .5 1 3. H q is not rejected . 15. t > 9 w ith a = . Ho is re je c te d a n d w e c o n c lu d e th ere is a d ifferen c e in the recall sco re s w ith and w ith o u t im ag ery . R ejectio n R eg ió n jc < 1. as in p a rt a. th e sc o re s m u st be a p p ro x im a tely n o rm al.226 W e ch o o se to reject H o i f x < 2 o r . th e re a re th ree tests av ailab le fo r testin g the d iffe re n c e s in the d istrib u tio n s w ith an d w ith o u t im ag ery .5 3 10 1 0 2.5 - K l L et p = P ( A e x c e ed s B fo r a giv en in te rse c tio n ) an d x = n u m b e r o f in te rse c tio n s at w h ich A ex c ee d s B . H 0 is n o t rejected .0 0 0 ) = .16.5 3 10 1 3.5 3 10 -2 7.226 S ince th e p -v a lu e is g reater th a n .05 in T a b le 8. th e lo w er p o rtio n o f th e tw o -ta ile d re je c tio n re g ió n is T < 11 and H0 is no t re je c te d .5 -1 3.x > 9 . C ritica l v a lu é a p p ro a ch : V ario u s tw o tailed reje c tio n reg io n s are tried in o rd e r to find a reg ió n w ith a ~ .5 -1 3. 8 8 7 ) = .10.

.
n ( n + 1)
2 0 (2 1 )
T + = — -------- = — -— - = 2 1 0
2

and

T ~ = 2 1 0 -2 1 0 = 0

2

In d ex in g n = 2 0 an d a = .01 in T a b le 8, the lo w er p o rtio n o f the tw o -ta iled reje c tio n
reg ió n is T < 37 a n d H0 is rejected .
15.35

T h e d a ta w ith c o rre sp o n d in g ra n k s in p a re n th e se s are sh o w n b e lo w.
A ge
2 0 - 39

10-19
2 9 (21)
33 (2 9 .5 )
2 6 ( 1 2 .5 )
27
39
35
33

(15)
(40)
(36)
(2 9 .5 )

2 9 (21)
36 (3 7 .5 )
2 2 (5 .5 )

40-59

6 0 -6 9

2 4 (8)
2 7 (1 5 )
33 (2 9 .5 )
31 (24)

3 7 (3 9 )
2 5 ( 1 0 .5 )
22 (5 .5 )
33 (2 9 .5 )

28 (18)
29 (21)
34 (34)

21 (3)
2 8 (1 8 )
2 4 (8)
34 (34)

2 8 (1 8 )
2 6 ( 1 2 .5 )

36 (37.5)
21(3)
20(1)

30 (23)
34 (34)
2 7 (1 5 )

2 5 ( 1 0 .5 )
2 4 (8 )
33 (2 9 .5 )

21(3)
32 (2 5 .5 )

33 (2 9 .5 )

32 (2 5 .5 )

7j = 247.5

T2 = 168

T3 = 2 1 6 .5

7; = 1 8 8

n, = 1 0

n 2 = 10

n3 = 1 0

n 4 = 10

T h e test sta tistic , b ased on the ra n k sum s, is
H =

12

3 ( „ + l)

n ( n + 1)

/i,

12

(2 4 7 .5 )2

(1 6 8 )2

(2 1 6 .5 )2

(1 8 8 )2

4 0 (4 1 )

10

10

10

10

- 3 ( 4 1 ) = 2.63

T h e reje c tio n reg ió n w ith a = .01 and k - 1 = 3 d f is based o n the c h i-sq u a re
d istrib u tio n , o r H >

= 11.35 . T h e nuil h y p o th e sis is n o t re je c ted . T h e re is no

e v id e n c e o f a d iffe re n c e in location.
b

S in ce th e o b se rv e d valué H = 2.63 is le ss th an

%2l0 =

6.25 , the p -v a lu e is g re a ter

than .10.
c -d F ro m E x e rc ise 11.60, F = .87 w ith 3 and 3 6 df. A gain, th e p -v a lu e is g reater
than .10 and the re su lts are the sam e.
15.39

T h e ra n k s o f the d a ta are show n on the next page.

155

T reatm ent
B lock

1

2

3

4

1
2

4
4

3
4

1
1.5
1

4

2
1.5
3
2

3
3
2
3
2.5
3
2
3

7 ; = 2 1 .5

4

5
6
7
8

a

1
1
1

4

4

1

2.5
2
3
2

7; = 3 2

T2 = 8.5

7;=18

4

T h e test statistic is
Fr =
,12 , y T - - ? , b { k + \)
r bk(lc + 1 ) ^ '
V

= 8( ^ 5 )[(32)2 + (8*5)2 +182 + (21-5)2] - 3(8)(5) = 2119
an d th e reje ctio n reg ió n is Fr > ^

05 = 7 .8 1 .
2

H e n ee, Ho is re je c te d and w e co n c lu d e

that th e re is a d iffe re n ce am o n g the fo u r treatm en ts.
b

T h e o b se rv e d valué, Fr = 2 1 . 1 9 , ex c e e d s x 2m , p -v a lu e < .005 .

c -e T h e a n aly sis o f v arian ce is p e rfo rm e d as in C h a p te r 11. T h e A N O V A ta b le is
show n below .
S ou rce
T reatm en ts
B lo ck s
E rro r
T o tal

SS
198.34375
2 2 0 .4 6 8 7 5
18.40625
4 3 7 .4 0 6 2 5

df
3
7
21
31

MS
6 6 .1 1 4 5 8 3
3 1 .4 9 5 5 3 6
0 .8 7 6 4 8 8

F
75.43

T h e an aly sis o f v arian ce F test fo r tre a tm e n ts is F = 7 5 .4 3 a n d the a p p ro x im a te p value w ith 3 and 21 d f is p -v a lu e < .005 . T h e resu lt is id en tical to th e p aram etric
result.
15.43

T ab le 9, A p p e n d ix I giv es critical v a lú es r0 su ch th a t P ( r s > r 0 ) = a . H en e e , fo r an
u p p er-ta ile d test, th e critical v alu é fo r re je c tio n can be re a d d ire ctly fro m the table.
a

15.47

rs > . 4 2 5

a; > .6 0 1

b

a T h e tw o v a ria b le s (ratin g and d ista n ce ) a re ra n k ed fro m lo w to hig h , and the
resu lts are show n in the fo llo w in g table.
V o ter

X

v

V o ter

X

1
2

7.5
4
3
12

7
8
9

6

3
4

3
7
12

5

10

1
8

6

7.5

11

10
11
12

156

y

4

2

11
1
5
9

9
5.5

2

5.5

10

C alcú late

I j c ¡y, = 4 4 2 .5

I x f = 6 4 9 .5

X y f = 6 4 9 .5

n = \2

Ix , =78

X y, = 78

T hen
78:
S a = 6 4 9 . 5 ---------= 142.5

S n, = 4 2 2 .
12

12

S yy = 6 4 9 . 5 12

and

b T h e h y p o th esis o f in tere st is H 0: no co rrela tio n v ersu s H a: n eg a tiv e c o rrelatio n .
C o n su ltin g T a b le 9 fo r a = .05 , the critical valué o f rs, d en o te d by r 0 is -.4 9 7 . S in ce
the valu é o f the test statistic is less th an the
c ritical v alu é, th e nuil h y p o th e sis is rejected . T h e re is e v id e n c e o f a sig n ifican t
neg ativ e c o rre la tio n b e tw een ratin g and d istan ce.
15.51

R e fe r to E x ercise 15.50. T o te st fo r p o sitiv e c o rre latio n w ith a = .05 , in d ex .05 in
T a b le 9 an d the re je c tio n reg ió n is rs > .600 . W e re je c t the nuil h y p o th e sis o f no
asso ciatio n a n d co n c lu d e th a t a p o sitiv e c o rrelatio n e x ists b e tw een th e te a c h e r’s ra n k s
an d the ran k s o f th e IQ s.

15.55

a

D efin e p = P (r e s p o n s e fo r stim u lu s 1 ex ce e d s th at fo r stim u lu s 2 ) and x = n u m b e r

o f tim es the re sp o n se fo r stim u lu s 1 ex c ee d s th at fo r stim u lu s 2. T h e h y p o th e sis to be
tested is
H 0 : p = 1/2

v ersu s

Ha : p

1/2

u sin g the sign te st w ith x as th e te st statistic. N o tice th at fo r th is e x e rc ise n = 9 , and
th e o b se rv e d v a lu é o f th e test sta tistic is x = 2 . V a rio u s tw o tailed reje c tio n reg io n s
are tried in o rd e r to fin d a reg ió n w ith a ~ .05 . T h ese are sh o w n in the fo llo w in g
table.
a_
.004

R ejec tio n R eg ió n
x = 0 ,x = 9
1;jc > 8

.040

x < 2 -,x > 7

.180

jc <

W e ch o o se to re je c t Hq if x < 1 o r x > 8 w ith a = .0 4 0 . S in ce x = 2 , H 0 is not
re je c te d . T h e re is in su ffic ie n t e v id e n c e to in d ícate a d iffe re n ce b e tw een th e tw o
stim uli.
b T h e e x p e rim e n t h as b een d e sig n e d in a p aire d m an n er, and the p a ire d d ifferen c e
te st is u sed . T h e d iffe re n c e s are sh o w n below .
d,

- .9

- 1 .1

1.5

- 2 .6

-1 .8

-2 .9

T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is
H0

-//2 =0

Ha ://,-//2 * 0

C alcú late

157

- 2 .5

2.5

-1 .4

2 jc.= I < = -9 2 = _1 d = ^ L = — = -\m i n '9 . 1 T o test the nuil h y p o th e sis th at the tw o p o p u latio n d is trib u tio n s a re id en tical.8 (6) 8 .5) 9 .9 (1 3 . + « 2 + l ) .4 _ 1*2..6 (5) 7. d o e s no t fall in the re je c tio n reg ió n and H 0 is n o t rejected .1333 = 8.0 (1.2 ( 1 7 ) 8 .--------.1 and the test statistic is T h e reje c tio n reg ió n w ith a = . 73.r. 15.1 4 .59 T h e d ata.5) 7.5 (4) 7. T = 7 7 . A (1) 6.05 is fo u n d in T a b le 7 b to be Tx < 6 2 . o r the p ara m e tric tw o -sa m p le t test.1 (3) 9 .3 (9. 158 9 .3 (9.9 (1 3 .5) B (2) 9. 74.= 8 .5 ( 1 8 ) 8.2 (8) 8 . calc ú late 7¡ = 1 + 1 7 h------h 1. the tw o -tailed reje c tio n reg ió n w ith a = .7 (1 2 ) 8 .05 and 8 d f is |/| > 2 .9 (2) 7.9 (7) 8. = -----.. ( n .9 .1 (1) 9 .1 (16) 8.5 ) 7¡ = 9 4 T h e d ifferen ce in the b rig h tn e ss lev els u sin g the tw o p ro c e s se s can be te ste d u sin g the n o n p aram etric W ilc o x o n ra n k su m test. w ith c o rre sp o n d ing ran k s.5 = 9 4 7 T = * . are sh o w n in th e fo llo w in g table. W e c an n o t co n c lu d e th at th e d istrib u tio n s o f b rig h tn e ss m e a su re m e n ts is d iffe re n t fo r the tw o p ro cesses.6 ( 1 1 ) 6 .7 ¡ = 9 ( 1 8 + l ) ..2667 n. T he o b serv ed valué.9 4 = 77 T h e test statistic is T = m in (7 ¡.5 ) 7.* ) = 77 W ith n x = n 2 = 9 .3 0 6 an d H 0 is n o t re je c te d .4 0 4 = 3 4 6 7 n. c a lc ú late _ I * . > „ '2 Zd?5: = —— = 3 7 . 2 T o test the n uil h y p o th esis th at the tw o p o p u la tio n m ean s are id en tical.

the sign test.2 7 .8675 16 n\ + n 2 .2 + ( n 2 .1 3 *1 ~*2 1 1 — + -in. p -v a lu e a p p r o a c h : F o r th e o b se rv e d valué x = 2 .65 T h e h y p o th esis to be tested is H 0: p o p u la tio n d istrib u tio n s 1 an d 2 are identical H a: th e d istrib u tio n s d iffe r in lo catio n an d the test statistic is T.5 -9 10. I f you use the W ilc o x o n sig n ed ran k test.— = .8 . D efin e d¡ to be the d ifferen c e b e tw een a p a ir in p o p u la tio n s 1 an d 2 (i. N o tice th at fo r this e x e rc ise n = 8 (th ere are tw o ties). S in ce the te n d e rize rs have been sco red o n a scale o f 1 to 10. x u . T h e ran k s are o b tain e d by o rd e rin g the d iffe re n c e s a c c o rd in g to th eir a b so lu te valué. T h ere is in su ffic ie n t e v id e n c e to in d icate a d iffe re n c e b e tw een the tw o ten d erizers.1 4 5 ) = .( 7 4 .x 2i ). a lo n g w ith th e ir ran k s (acc o rd in g to ab so lu te m ag n itu d e).5 3 . D efin e p = ^ ( te n d e r iz e r A ex c ee d s B fo r a g iv en cut ) and x = n u m b er o f tim es th at A ex c e e d s B. a re show n di R a n k | d¡ | di R a n k | d¡ \ -3 1 14. the ra n k sum o f the p o sitiv e (o r n eg ativ e) d ifferen ces. an d the o b se rv e d valué o f the te st statistic is x = 2 . H0 is n o t rejected .05 and 16 d e g ree s o f freed o m is |f| > 1.5 -1 1 7 12.290 S in ce the p -v a lu e is g re a te r th an . 15.N o tic e th at th e n o n p a ra m e tric and param etric tests re ac h the sam e c o n clu sio n s.l ) s 2 _ 6 2 5 . T h e h y p o th e sis to be tested is H 0 : p = l/ 2 H a : p * 1/2 v ersu s u sin g the sig n test w ith x as the test statistic.2 2 - (7 3 . T h e re su lts are th e sam e. T h e d iffe re n c e s. 8675 T h e rejectio n re g ió n w ith a = .5 -3 1 14. -1 ) J .e.304 J . S ta rt b y u sin g the ea sie st o f th e tw o n o n p a ra m e tric tests .5 7 -6 4. n2 = .2 ) 2 .746 a n d H 0 is not rejected .10. the p aram etric test is n o t ap p licab le.4 )2 2 _ (w. T h e re is in su fficien t e v id en c e to in d icate a d iffe re n c e in th e av erag e b rig h tn ess m e a su rem en ts fo r the tw o p ro cesse s.5 -7 7 7 7 -1 -6 -3 1 4.61 S in ce th is is a p a ire d ex p erim e n t. o r the p ara m e tric p aire d t test.0 6 - + 5 9 9 . the W ilco x o n sig n ed ran k test.5 159 -1 1 12.2 an d the test statistic is t= 8 . 15. y o u can c h o o se e ith e r the sign test.5 -2 2 -8 9 -9 10. y o u will fin d T* = 7 and T~ = 29 w h ich w ill not a llo w reje c tio n o f H 0 at th e 5 % lev el o f sig n ifican ce.. calc ú late p -v a lu e = 2 P ( x < 2 ) = 2 (.

( 6 3 ) 2 .05 is fo u n d in T a b le 7 a to be Tx < 2 1 .7 'l*) = 19 W ith n.77 T h e d a ta w ith c o rre sp o n d in g ran k s in p a re n th e se s are sh o w n on the n ex t page.3 ( 2 1 ) = 9. an d n. T h e “ su b sta n tial e x p e rie n c e ” sa m p le is d e sig n a te d as sam p le 1.( /! . 15.66. the rejectio n reg ió n is T < 25 an d H 0 is re jec ted .69 a .08 20 ( 21) W ith d f = k . b a se d on the ra n k sum s. 15.05 in T a b le 8.T { = 5 (1 3 ) —19 = 4 6 T h e test statistic is T = m in (7 ^ . and H 0 is re je cte d .2 0 . 7 = 1 9 . = 1 9 T¡ = « . T h e o b se rv e d valu é. T h ere is su fficien t e v id e n c e to in d icate th at the rev ie w b o a rd c o n sid e rs e x p e rie n c e a p rim e facto r in the selectio n o f th e b est can d id ates. the o b se rv e d v alu é H = 9 . th e o n e -ta ile d reje c tio n reg ió n w ith a = .b S in ce the e x p e rim e n t is a c o m p le tely ra n d o m iz e d d esig n . th e K ruskal W a llis H test is used.1 = 3 . falls in th e re je c tio n reg ió n and H 0 is re je c te d . In d e x in g n = 15 and a = . 15. + n 2 + \ ) . T h e re su lts are th e sam e. c F ro m E x ercise 11. C o n sid e r th e sm a lle r ran k sum a n d d e term in e th e ap p ro p ria te lo w er p o rtio n o f the tw o -ta ile d reje c tio n reg ió n . P la n t A B R anks 9 12 1 19 7 14 C 13 9 D 20 17 9 16 T h e test statistic.0 8 is b e tw e e n %m5 a n d X 05 so l^ at . = 5 . T h e n uil h y p o th e sis is reje c te d an d w e c o n c lu d e th at th ere is a d iffe re n c e am o n g the fo u r plants. 160 . T he co m b in e d ran k s are sh o w n below . n 2 = 7 .73 T h e d ata are alread y in ran k form .T h e rank sum fo r positive d ifferen c es is T * = 14 a n d the ra n k su m fo r neg ativ e d iffe re n c e s is T~ = 106 w ith n = 15 .05 . is 6 18 11 3 5 4 2 15 34 63 33 80 12 H = / t ( n + l) 12 Z ^ ~ 3 ( « + l) (3 4 )2 . (3 3 )2 _ (8 0 ) . W e co n clu d e that there is a d ifferen c e b etw een m ath an d art scores. F = 5 . = n 2 = 1 2 .025 < p -\a lu e < . C alcú late 7.

4 3 3 3 14(15) T h e reje c tio n reg ió n w ith a = .5) 14(14) 9(11.5) 6(5) 4(1. is H = 12 n (n + \ 12 '( 4 8 ) : _ ( 2 2 ) : 1 (2 3 ): .01 and k . b ased o n the ran k sum s.0 8 (9. 161 .1 = 3 d f is b ased on the ch i-sq u are d istrib u tio n .=4 n4 = 3 12(13) 1.34 .5) 7(7) 5 (3. = 1 2 «. T he nuil h y p o th e sis is not re je cte d and we co n c lu d e th at th ere is in su ffic ien t e v id en c e to ind ícate a d iffe re n c e in th e d istrib u tio n o f tim es fo r the fo u r groups.T rain in g P erio d s (h o u rs) .5 -2:0 T h e te st statistic.5 ) 5 (3. (12 )2 .5 1. = 2 3 7. o r H > %20l = 11. = 4 8 T2 = 2 2 T.5) 7.5) 7(7) 4(1.5 ) 7(7) 8 (9 .5) 9(11.=4 n2= 3 *.3 ( 1 5 ) = 7 .

9780534463250 .