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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, May 10, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of May 2, 2016 through May 8, 2016 are among a national sample of 12,714 adults aged 18 and over, including
11,089 registered voters (+/- 1.3%), 3,389 registered Republican voters (+/-2.3%) and 3,905 registered Democratic voters (+/-2.0%).
Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
5/2-5/8
4/25-5-1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

Strongly disapprove
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Over the past week have you been following news about candidates for the 2016 presidential election:
5/2 – 5/8
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22-2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Extremely Closely
21
21
20
18
19
18
18
16
12
13
13
13

Very closely
29
29
29
29
27
29
30
27
24
26
26
23

Somewhat closely
33
32
34
35
35
35
34
36
38
38
37
37

Not so closely
11
11
11
12
13
12
12
14
16
15
17
17

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

No answer
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

Not at all closely
5
6
5
5
6
6
6
7
9
8
8
9

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
-

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
32
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
32
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
35
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
1
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Republican presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Republican nomination for president? [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]*
Jeb
Ben
Chris
Ted
Carly
Jim
Mike
John
Rand Marco
Rick
Donald Don’t
Bush
Carson
Christie
Cruz Fiorina Gilmore Huckabee Kasich
Paul
Rubio
Santorum Trump Know
5/2 – 5/4
21
13
60
6
4/25-5/1
22
14
56
7
4/18-4/24
26
17
50
7
4/11-4/17
28
19
46
7
4/4—4/10
30
16
46
8
3/28 – 4/3
28
18
45
9
3/21 – 3/27
27
18
48
7
3/14 – 3/20
24
16
6
45
8
3/7 – 3/13
24
12
11
44
7
2/29 – 3/6
8
20
9
18
39
6
2/22 – 2/28
8
18
7
21
40
6
2/15 – 2/21
4
8
19
8
16
36
7
2/8 – 2/14
4
8
2
18
1
7
14
38
6
2/1 – 2/7
3
7
3
20
2
3
2
17
35
5
1/25 – 1/31
3
7
3
20
2
2
3
3
12
1
39
4
1/18 – 1/24
4
8
3
17
2
1
3
3
10
39
9
1/11 – 1/17
4
8
3
21
3
2
2
3
11
38
5
1/4 – 1/10
3
9
3
20
2
2
2
3
11
38
5
12/28 – 1/3
6
9
4
18
3
2
2
2
13
1
35
5
From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016
Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
1
1
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Democratic presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Democratic nomination for president? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Don’t know
No answer
5/2 – 5/8
53
41
5
4/25-5/1
54
40
6
1
4/18-4/24
52
42
6
4/11-4/17
50
43
7
4/4—4/10
49
43
7
1
3/28 – 4/3
51
42
6
1
3/21 – 3/27
49
43
8
3/14 – 3/20
53
41
6
1
3/7 – 3/13
54
41
5
2/29 – 3/6
55
38
7
1
2/22 – 2/28
51
41
8
1
2/15 – 2/21
51
40
9
1
2/8 – 2/14
50
40
9
1
2/1 – 2/7
51
1
39
8
1
1/25 – 1/31
50
2
39
8
1
1/18 – 1/24
51
2
37
9
1
1/11 – 1/17
52
1
36
9
2
1/4 – 1/10
52
2
37
8
1
12/28 – 1/3
53
2
36
8
1
From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016
Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?

In this list, who is your second choice for the Republican nomination for president in 2016? If you don’t have a second choice, skip
ahead. [AMONG REP AND REP LEANERS]*
5/2 - 5/4
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
12/28 – 1/3

Jeb
Bush
9

Ben
Carson
14
14
11

Chris
Christie
6

Ted
Cruz
20
26
27
28
25
20
19
22

Carly
Fiorina
5

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
3

John
Kasich
26
26
26
27
22
16
13
2

Rand
Paul
-

Marco
Rubio
9
20
23
13

Rick
Santorum
1

Donald
Trump
18
19
17
20
17
12
12
14

Don’t
Know
29
28
29
25
16
19
18
11

No
answer
7
1
1
10
1
1
-

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the Republican nomination for president in 2016? [AMONG REP &
REP LEANERS]*
5/2 – 5/4
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/8 – 2/14
2/1- 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
12/28 – 1/3

Jeb
Bush
3
2
3
5

Ben
Carson
1
2
2
2
2
5

Chris
Christie
1
1
2

Ted
Cruz
7
16
14
18
12
10
22
31
21
22

Carly
Fiorina
-

Jim
Gilmore
-

Mike
Huckabee
-

John
Kasich
1
4
3
3
1
1
2
1
1
1

Rand
Paul
-

Marco
Rubio
2
3
7
12
10
18
8
11

Rick
Santorum
-

Donald
Trump
91
79
78
74
77
71
56
42
62
49

No
answer
1
2
3
2
2
4
4
3
2
5

*These questions were asked Monday, May 2 through Wednesday, May 4, 2016.

Regardless of whom you support, who do you think will win the Democratic nomination for president in 2016? [AMONG DEM &
DEM LEANERS]
Hillary Clinton

Martin O’Malley

Bernie Sanders

No answer

84
79
79
76
79
74
66
71
72
77

1
2

15
19
18
22
19
25
32
27
25
19

1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
2
2

5/2 – 5/8
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/8 -2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
12/28 – 1/3

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

5/2 – 5/8

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
49

Donald Trump,
the Republican
44

No
answer
7

Which of the following candidate qualities matters MOST in your decision for whom you are supporting for president in 2016?

5/2 – 5/8
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Right
experience
11
10
10
8
8
9
8

Shares my
values
15
16
15
15
18
17
14

Cares about
people like me
10
10
9
10
9
9
11

Is not a
typical
politician
13
10
12
10
11
11
10

Has the right
temperament
4
3
2
3
3
3
2

Is a strong
leader
15
16
17
17
16
18
19

Is honest and
trustworthy
17
16
16
16
16
15
16

Willing to stand up
for his/her principles,
no matter what
14
18
19
20
19
19
18

No
Answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

People experience and participate in the ongoing election campaigns in various ways. Thinking carefully, which
of the following applies to you over the past week? (Select all that apply.)

Donated
money to
a political
party or
candidate

Worked/
volunteered
for a
political
party or
candidate

Talked to
someone
about a
political
party or
candidate

Posted on
social
media (e.g.
Facebook,
Twitter)
about a
candidate

Saw an
advertisement
about a
candidate on
the internet

Attended a
political
rally or
event for a
party or
candidate

I did not
do, see, or
receive
anything
from a
party or
candidate

Received
a phone
call from
a political
campaign

Received
a piece of
mail from
a political
campaign

Received
an email
from a
political
campaign

Received
a house
visit from
a political
campaign

5/2 - 5/8

9

3

55

23

13

25

28

2

48

40

4

16

3/28 -4/3

8

3

55

23

14

25

28

2

52

43

4

16

2/8-2/14

8

2

52

21

11

22

28

2

51

39

3

17

1/18 – 1/24

7

2

45

18

9

18

24

1

43

35

3

22

1/11 – 1/17

8

2

48

19

9

20

26

1

44

36

3

20

1/4 – 1/10

7

2

48

18

11

22

27

2

47

36

3

20

12/28 -1/3

7

2

46

17

11

24

28

2

48

37

3

18

Saw an
advertisement
about a
candidate on
television

Suppose Hillary Clinton were to win the Democratic nomination for president. Which of the following describe how you would
react to Clinton as the nominee? Select all that apply. [AMONG ALL]**

5/5 - 5/8

Scared

Hopeful

Angry

Excited

Surprised

None of the above

35

29

22

16

7

16

Now that Donald Trump is the presumptive Republican nominee for President, which of the following describe your reaction to
Trump as the nominee? Select all that apply. [AMONG ALL]**

5/5-5/8

Scared

Hopeful

Angry

Excited

Surprised

None of the above

47

26

21

14

16

9

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote? [AMONG
ALL]* *

5/5 – 5/8

Bernie Sanders,
the Democrat
53

Donald Trump,
the Republican
40

No answer
7

**These questions were asked Thursday, May 5 through Sunday, May 8, 2016.

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of May 2, 2016 through May 8, 2016 was conducted
online among a national sample of 12,714 adults aged 18 and over, including 11,089 who say they are registered to vote.
Respondents for this survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform
each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age, race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census
Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of
sampling error can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error,
coverage error, and measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an
error estimate. The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.2 percentage point for the full sample and plus or
minus 1.3 percentage point for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the
95% confidence intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should
be taken into consideration in much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group

Unweighted N

Plus or minus

Total sample
Total RVs

12,714
11,089

1.2
1.3

Republican RVs
Democrat RVs

3,389
3,905

2.3
2.0

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65+

1,156
1,617
1,751
2,657
3,109
2,424

3.8
3.3
3.1
2.6
2.3
2.7

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

9,463
980
1,225
1,046

1.4
4.2
3.5
3.9

Clinton voters
Sanders voters
Trump voters
Cruz voters

3,241
2,353
1,603
622

2.3
2.7
3.2
5.3