Ski Resort Expansion Modeling

A Descriptive and Suitability Model of Expanding Ski Resorts Based

on Vail Resorts
Proposed by
Peter Sawall and Chad Licht
University of Wisconsin- Eau Claire

Project Background:
Skiing and Snowboarding have become a pastime throughout the mountainous regions of
the United States. It is a getaway vacation for families and a passion for others. In the Rocky
Mountain region the sport of downhill skiing and snowboarding brings in about 35 percent of the
annual 56.7 million winter enthusiasts according to Rees, Peter W., S.J.A. (2010). With an
industry that provides numerous employment opportunities and has a heavy influence on the
many local economies, it would be profitable to see where another ski resort could be
established. In recent years, Vail Resorts has expanded to own 13 different mountain resorts
spanning 5 states in the US, and a resort in Australia. The company is striving to provide
incredible skiing conditions, and each mountain provides more variation to the collection. They
have provided the task of identifying the specific characteristics that make the existing resorts
fantastic places to ski, and using those characteristics to identify locations for potential expansion
projects. The question is how can GIS be used in creating a descriptive and suitable model that
shows the exact areas in which to build or expand a ski resort?
There is plenty of mountainous area across the United States that could seem applicable
for this investment. The areas that are being focused on are the resorts that are owned by Vail
Resorts. The ski resorts that are being worked off of are Beaver Creek, Breckenridge, Vail,
Heavenly, Keystone, Kirkwood, Lake Tahoe, Northstar, and Park City. The areas around these
ski resorts will be the space that is the study area. This model of expansion will help resort
companies, such as Vail Resorts, identify possible areas in which they would be able to add onto
other existing resorts, or they could even decide to create a whole new resort. The companies
will see an increase in revenue and new jobs would be created which would support the local
economy of wherever the new ski hill is built.
Newly developed ski hills also benefit skiers and snowboarders as well because it gives
more space for riders to explore. Many times resorts can feel a bit overcrowded when there are
too many people on the hill. Winter sport enthusiasts hit the slopes to feel a sense of freedom
since that is why many people ride in the first place as according to Holland, Isabel A. and
Harvey, James E. (2015). A new resort or more trails will allow a bigger extent for skiers and
snowboarders.

Figure 1: Study Area Map of Vail Resorts in California/Nevada

Figure 2: Study Area Map of Park City in Utah

Figure 3: Study Area of Vail Resorts in Colorado

Objectives:
1. Determine large-scale topographic and environmental factors that define ski area
suitability in order to identify possible ski areas
2. Identify the small-scale slope, curvature, and aspect characteristics which define green,
blue, and black diamond runs at existing vail resorts, in order to generate runs at the
possible ski areas.
3. Use business analyst to assess the economic suitability of the potential locations.
4. Assess the results to identify the best potential resort site(s).
Data:
The task of collecting data will be one of the most important parts of this project. The
sources that will be used for data gathering will need to be reliable and up to date. Ski trail data
was acquired through a website called Skimap. This website provided a majority of the ski trials
that are needed from the existing ski resorts that are owned by Vail Resorts.
For part of the weather data the files downloaded were a 30-year normals dataset, an
elevation map, and monthly winter precipitation files from the year 2004 to 2015. This data was
downloaded from the Prism Climate Group website which is overlooked by Northwest Alliance
for Computational Science & Engineering (NACSE). Monthly climate data for the years 2004 to
2015 were downloaded from the NOAA National Climate Data Catalog (NCDC). The monthly
data are individual stations records across the western contiguous US states. A comparison will
be needed for the 30-year normal dataset with the monthly winter precipitation files to decide
which information would work best with the weather model. The months that are being used are
October through March which is a general window for a skiing season.
From the USGS, 156 1-arcsecond DEMs were acquired. These DEMs cover the entire US
Rocky Mountain Range from Idaho to New Mexico. These DEMs will be used to identify
locations with favorable slopes and will also be used in calibrating the weather models.

Project Approach:
In order to identify possible areas, the first step is to create a multi-faceted suitability
model. Block statistics are going to be used to identify areas with high elevation ranges. Block
statistics are also going to be used to produce generalized aspect and slope surfaces. The
generalized aspect and slope surfaces will be used with the NCDC weather points to create
interpolated surfaces, likely using Kriging with External Drift following the example of Tobin,
C., Nicotina, L., Parlange, M. B., Berne, A., & Rinaldo, A. (2011). The second step will be to
generate surfaces of: the mean seasonal temperature, the mean snowfall, the number of days
below freezing, and the average maximum snow depth. These surfaces will be used in order to
assess environmental suitability of possible locations. The extent is going to be limited to the
suitability model using a polygon of National Forest Service Land.
Simultaneously, an analysis will be performed on the existing resorts trails. Before any
additional runs can be identified, it will be essential to understand what characteristics define an

existing green, blue, or black run in Vail Mountain Resorts current locations. A 10m buffer will
be applied to perform zonal statistics on each of the trail classes based on slope, aspect, and
curvature. After assessing the descriptive characteristics, the aspect and curvature characteristics
are going to be reclassified into a cost surface, while the slope characteristics will be used to
create a vertical factor modifier table.
The next step is to identify possible locations for ski lifts on the mountains identified in
part one. Then, path distance analysis will be executed between points at the summits and bases
of the mountains, using the cost surface and vertical factor modifier table identified in part 2. The
path distance tool will be used to create theoretical trail maps for each of the possible locations.
The locations will be assessed based on the variety of the generated trails.
This model will include drive time areas for populated areas, hospitals, airports, and
existing lodging. Kernel Density analysis will be performed on existing lodging, in order to gain
an understanding of existing tourist geographies of the region, and will be weighted in the
suitability model.

Figure 4: The descriptive model that will show the characteristics for creating new trails.

Figure 5: The suitability model that will assist in finding possible locations for a new resort.

Expected Results:
The results will be a suitability map, a trail description table, and several generated trail maps. A
poster will be used to help formally display the tables and map that we have generated. The table
and maps will be presented as though a presentation for possible expansion plans was being
given to Vail Resorts executives.
Conclusion:
There are three questions that can be answered by using GIS. What areas of the Rocky Mountain
region have suitable characteristics for a ski resort? What characteristics define the trails at
existing Vail Resorts? How do the possible areas compare in terms of terrain variety? The
methodology is a combination that will include network analysis, geostatistical interpolation,
suitability modeling, terrain analysis, and least cost path analysis.

References

Holland, Isabel A. and Harvey, James E. "Optimal Areas for Backcountry Skiing in Maine,"
Atlas of Maine: Vol. 2015: No. 2, Article 3.
Rees, Peter W., S.J.A. (2010). Reinventing mountain settlements: A GIS model for identifying
possible ski towns in the U.S. Rocky Mountains. Applied Geography, 30(1), 36-49.
Tobin, C., Nicotina, L., Parlange, M. B., Berne, A., & Rinaldo, A. (2011). Improved interpolation
of meteorological forcings for hydrologic applications in a Swiss Alpine region. Journal of
Hydrology, 401, 1-2, 77-89. doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2011.02.010