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NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll

Embargoed for release Tuesday, May 17, 2016 at 6:00AM
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll tracks voter preferences and attitudes on a weekly basis throughout
the 2016 election cycle. Results are released every Tuesday at 6:00AM and are among registered voters.
Results for the week of May 9, 2016 through May 15, 2016 are among a national sample of 14,100 adults aged 18 and over,
including 12,507 registered voters (+/- 1.2%), 3,434 registered Republican voters (+/-2.3%) and 4,348 registered Democratic voters
(+/-2.0%). Complete error estimates can be found in the methodology section below.

TOPLINE RESULTS
Which one of the following issues matters MOST to you right now?

5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28-1/3

Foreign
Policy
4
4
4
4
4
4
5
4
4
4
4
5
5
4
5
5
4
5
5
6

The
environment
9
9
9
9
8
8
8
8
9
8
9
8
8
8
9
9
8
8
8
8

Terrorism
12
12
14
14
16
17
19
18
12
13
13
14
16
16
15
17
19
21
23
23

Immigration
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
7
7
8
7
8
7
8
8
8

Health
care
16
15
16
15
15
14
15
13
15
16
16
16
15
14
16
13
15
13
13
14

Jobs and the
Economy
35
36
33
32
32
31
32
32
36
35
35
34
33
34
32
32
33
29
28
27

Education
11
12
11
11
11
11
10
10
11
10
11
10
10
10
10
10
10
10
8
9

Other
5
5
6
6
5
6
5
5
5
6
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
4
5
5

No
answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
5/9 – 5/15
5/2-5/8
4/25-5-1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Strongly approve
28
28
27
26
28
27
28
27
27
27
27
27
26
26
27
25
26
26
23
23

Somewhat approve
23
23
24
24
24
23
24
24
24
23
23
23
22
24
23
22
24
22
22
25

Somewhat disapprove
13
12
13
13
12
13
13
13
13
13
12
12
12
12
12
12
14
12
12
12

In politics today, do you consider yourself a Republican, Democrat, or Independent?
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 - 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4—4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
28
32
28
28
29
30
29
30
30
31
32
31
31
30
30
31
28
31
33
30

Democrat
35
35
36
35
34
34
35
33
36
35
36
35
35
35
35
34
34
34
32
34

Independent
35
31
35
36
35
35
35
36
32
33
31
33
33
33
33
33
36
33
34
34

No answer
1
2
1
1
1
1
2
2
2
2
2
2
1
2
2
2
1
2
2
2

Strongly disapprove
35
36
36
37
37
37
35
35
35
36
37
37
39
38
38
40
36
40
42
40

No answer
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

As of today, do you lean more to the Republican Party or more to the Democratic Party? [AMONG IND OR DON’T KNOW FOR
PARTY]
5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8
4/25-5/1
4/18-4/24
4/11-4/17
4/4 – 4/10
3/28 – 4/3
3/21 – 3/27
3/14 – 3/20
3/7 – 3/13
2/29 – 3/6
2/22 – 2/28
2/15 – 2/21
2/8 – 2/14
2/1 – 2/7
1/25 – 1/31
1/18 – 1/24
1/11 – 1/17
1/4 – 1/10
12/28 – 1/3

Republican
Party
33
32
32
35
33
33
31
31
31
31
32
34
38
34
35
34
33
36
36
37

Democratic
Party
28
32
27
27
30
28
29
28
28
27
29
28
28
28
30
26
27
26
26
24

Neither
36
35
38
35
34
35
38
37
39
41
36
36
33
35
33
37
39
37
36
37

No answer
3
1
3
3
3
4
2
4
2
2
2
2
2
3
2
3
2
2
1
1

Here are the candidates running in the Democratic presidential primary this year. Which candidate do you now support for the
Democratic nomination for president? [AMONG DEM & DEM LEANERS]
Hillary Clinton
Martin O’Malley
Bernie Sanders
Don’t know
No answer
5/9 - 5/15
54
40
5
5/2 – 5/8
53
41
5
4/25-5/1
54
40
6
1
4/18-4/24
52
42
6
4/11-4/17
50
43
7
4/4—4/10
49
43
7
1
3/28 – 4/3
51
42
6
1
3/21 – 3/27
49
43
8
3/14 – 3/20
53
41
6
1
3/7 – 3/13
54
41
5
2/29 – 3/6
55
38
7
1
2/22 – 2/28
51
41
8
1
2/15 – 2/21
51
40
9
1
2/8 – 2/14
50
40
9
1
2/1 – 2/7
51
1
39
8
1
1/25 – 1/31
50
2
39
8
1
1/18 – 1/24
51
2
37
9
1
1/11 – 1/17
52
1
36
9
2
1/4 – 1/10
52
2
37
8
1
12/28 – 1/3
53
2
36
8
1
From 12/28-2/14, the question wording was slightly different because of the stage of the race. Previous question wording: If the 2016
Republican/Democratic primary or caucus in your state were being held today, for whom would you vote?

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote?

5/9 – 5/15
5/2 – 5/8

Hillary Clinton,
the Democrat
48
49

Donald Trump,
the Republican
45
44

No
answer
7
7

If the 2016 presidential election were being held today among the following candidates, for whom would you vote? [AMONG ALL]

5/9-5/15
5/5 – 5/8

Bernie Sanders,
the Democrat
53
53

Donald Trump,
the Republican
41
40

No answer
6
7

Who do you think will win the Democratic nomination for president in 2016?
Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

No answer

51

43

6

5/9 – 5/15

Who do you trust more to lead the Republican party? [AMONG REP & REP LEANERS]
Donald Trump, the
presumptive Republican
presidential nominee

Paul Ryan, Speaker of
the House of
Representatives

No
answer

58

39

3

5/9 – 5/15

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Hillary Clinton?

5/9 – 5/15

Strongly
favorable
17

Somewhat
favorable
23

Somewhat
unfavorable
14

Strongly
unfavorable
45

No
answer
1

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Bernie Sanders?

5/9 – 5/15

Strongly
favorable
23

Somewhat
favorable
33

Somewhat
unfavorable
20

Strongly
unfavorable
23

No
answer
2

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Donald Trump?

5/9 – 5/15

Strongly
favorable
14

Somewhat
favorable
23

Somewhat
unfavorable
13

Strongly
unfavorable
49

No
answer
1

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of Paul Ryan?

5/9 – 5/15

Strongly
favorable
9

Somewhat
favorable
33

Somewhat
unfavorable
33

Strongly
unfavorable
21

No
answer
3

METHODOLOGY
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking data for the week of May 9, 2016 through May 15, 2016 was conducted online among a
national sample of 14,100 adults aged 18 and over, including 12,507 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this survey were selected
from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Data for this week has been weighted for age,
race, sex, education, region, and voter registration status using the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistic’s Current Population Survey to
reflect the demographic composition of the United States.
Because the sample is based on those who initially self-selected for participation rather than a probability sample, no estimates of sampling error
can be calculated. All surveys may be subject to multiple sources of error, including, but not limited to sampling error, coverage error, and
measurement error.
To assess the variability in the estimates and account for design effects, we create a bootstrap confidence interval to produce an error estimate.
The bootstrap confidence interval for this survey is plus or minus 1.1 percentage point for the full sample and plus or minus 1.2 percentage point
for registered voters.
To calculate the bootstrap confidence interval we use the weighted data to generate 5000 independent samples and calculate the 95% confidence
intervals for the weighted average. When analyzing the survey results and their accuracy, this error estimate should be taken into consideration in
much the same way that analysis of probability polls takes into account the margin of sampling error.
Group

Unweighted N

Plus or minus

Total sample

14,100

1.1

Total RVs

12,507

1.2

Republican RVs

3,434

2.3

Democrat RVs

4,348

2.0

Male

7,295

1.4

Female

6,805

1.6

18-24
25-34
35-44
45-54

1,012
1,795
2,160
3,040

3.9
3.1
2.8
2.3

55-64
65+

3,360
2,733

2.2
2.4

White
Black
Hispanic
Other

10,404
1,248
1,264
1,184

1.3
3.7
3.5
3.6

Income: <$50k
Income: $50k-$99k
Income: $100k or more

3,537
4,630
5,151

2.1
1.9
1.8

Education: HS or less
Education: Some college
Education: College or more

1,839
3,798
8,463

2.5
1.7
1.1

Clinton voters
Sanders voters

3,593
2,469

2.2
2.6